Category Archives: Governor

NY Poll: Hochul and Stefanik in
Dead Heat in Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Governor

NY Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) struggling in polls.

A political survey that the New York Post recently covered found Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) drawing into a virtual general election tie with New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) according to the study’s ballot test result.

No major Republican or Democratic candidate with the exception of the incumbent has yet announced for Governor. Yet, the data consistently shows that Rep. Stefanik, who was nominated as US Ambassador to the United Nations but withdrawn when it became evident that taking her from the House could have potentially cost the Republicans effective control of the legislative chamber, fares the best of any potential GOP contender against the politically vulnerable Governor.

Gov. Hochul also could face a contested Democratic primary. Both Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado and Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) have indicated they are considering launching a primary challenge to the Governor.

The co/efficient survey research firm conducted their New York poll in early May (May 1-2; 1,163 likely New York voters; live interview & text) and the results showed Gov. Hochul holding only a 43-42 percent lead over Rep. Stefanik, meaning a virtual dead heat. In a hypothetical Republican primary, co/efficient sees Stefanik leading Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R), 56-9-8 percent. The Hochul job approval number stood at 44:46 percent favorable to unfavorable.

Siena College also released a poll conducted about two weeks later than the co/efficient study (May 12-15; 805 registered New York voters; live interview & text). The Hochul job approval score was in the same realm as co/efficient found, though slightly more positive. The Siena job approval index found the Governor in positive territory at 50:46 percent, though her personal approval is wholly consistent with the co/efficient job approval score of 44:46 percent positive to negative.

Though Siena did not test general election pairings, the pollsters did ask whether the respondent believes Gov. Hochul should be replaced. A total of 82 percent of Republicans and 64 percent of Independents said they prefer “someone else” to be the state’s next Governor. Even among Democrats, her standing is tepid. Only a bare majority of 51 percent said they are “prepared to re-elect her.”

Siena asked primary ballot test questions for both parties. While co/efficient found Rep. Stefanik holding a large lead in the GOP field, as referenced above, Siena sees a more competitive contest. According to this poll, Stefanik’s lead over Rep. Lawler and County Executive Blakeman was 35-22-11 percent, respectively.

On the Democratic side, Gov. Hochul maintains a substantial lead, but she remains below 50 percent even on the primary ballot test. Siena’s latest results project her holding a 46-12-10 percent advantage over Delgado and Torres.

While this margin is wide, it does suggest that her facing only one opponent could lead to an aggressive primary challenge. If both enter, Hochul would very likely win because the anti-incumbent vote would be split. Since New York recognizes plurality elections – New York City is using the Ranked Choice Voting system, but the state has not adopted the procedure – Hochul would prevail as the first-place finisher.

At this point, it appears likely that Rep. Stefanik will enter the Governor’s race since the early signs surrounding her proposed candidacy are relatively positive. Such is not the case for Rep. Lawler. He, therefore, will likely remain in the House race and enter what promises to be a hotly contested national congressional re-election campaign.

Without Lawler in the Governor’s race, it is possible that Blakeman would run and attempt to upset Stefanik in a one-on-one campaign, even though the early indicators heavily favor the Congresswoman for the party nomination.

On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Delgado and Rep. Torres would likely need to form an alliance, with only one challenging Gov. Hochul, for either to have a chance. If both enter the race, the prognostication would greatly favor a Hochul renomination. If one of the two challenges Gov. Hochul, such would yield a competitive Democratic primary campaign to be decided in late June of 2026.

Regardless of the nomination outcomes for both parties, it is probable that we will see a major general election New York gubernatorial campaign develop. While the state’s voting history clearly points to another Democratic victory in November of 2026, this race is likely to become much more interesting than would a typical New York statewide campaign.

Maine Rep. Golden to Seek Re-Election

Campaign ad by Rep. Jared Golden

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 22, 2025

US House

Maine’s four-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston), amid speculation that he might run for Governor or possibly the Senate against his former boss, Sen. Susan Collins (R), announced that he will seek a fifth term in the House next year.

Earlier in the year, Rep. Golden was circumspect about his political plans not only acknowledging that he was considering a statewide bid, but also that he might retire outright from elective politics.

Next year, it appears he will face former two-term Gov. Paul LePage (R), who again returned from living in Florida to announce for public office in Maine. In 2022, LePage unsuccessfully challenged Gov. Janet Mills (D). Earlier this month, LePage announced that he would enter the 2nd Congressional District race next year.

Rep. Golden had a close call in 2024, winning a Ranked Choice Voting re-election with only 50.3 percent of the vote over retired NASCAR driver and then-state Rep. Austin Theriault. It was presumed that Theriault would run again, but he has since stated that he will not and endorsed LePage. The former Governor carried the 2nd District in all of his gubernatorial runs, even in ‘22 when he lost the statewide count to Gov. Mills by 13 percentage points.

Maine’s 2nd District encompasses most of the state’s geographic area and has the largest land mass of any CD east of the Mississippi River. ME-2 is also the most Republican seat in the nation that elects a Democrat to the House of Representatives. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the 2nd has a 52.9R – 41.2D partisan lean. President Trump has carried the 2nd District in all three of his national runs, winning the last two races with percentage margins of 53-44 percent (2024) and 52-45 percent (2020).

With Rep. Golden out of the Governor’s race, Democrats will still see a crowded open primary since Gov. Mills is ineligible to seek a third term. Those party members officially announced for Governor include Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, businessman Angus King, III, son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), and former state Senate President Troy Jackson, who hails from Maine’s far northern tier. Expected to soon enter is former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland).

For the Republicans, former Assistant US Secretary of State Bobby Charles, ex-local official Robert Wessels, and businessman Owen McCarthy are the announced candidates.

Despite the Republican trends exhibited in the 2nd CD, Rep. Golden has been able to prevail in his House races, partially due to the Ranked Choice Voting system, which applies for Maine’s federal races and primaries outside of the national presidential campaign. Counting the post-RCV rounds as his final tally, Rep. Golden has averaged 51.7 percent of the cumulative vote for his entire congressional career.

With the House partisan division at 220R – 215D, counting the two vacant Democratic seats that will be filled later in the year, Maine’s 2nd District, with its favorable Republican voting history outside of the US House race, will become a major national GOP conversion target. Any seat the Republicans can gain from the Democratic column will go a long way toward sustaining the party’s small majority.

The Golden-LePage race is guaranteed to be close with both candidates being popular with the 2nd District constituency. Winning this race could well be a precursor to which party clinches the next US House majority.

The DNC’s Looming Decisions

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 16, 2025

DNC

Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been appearing in rallies across the country with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)

Though the 2028 presidential election is years away, the Democratic National Committee leadership has looming structural decisions to make well in advance of the first nomination votes being cast.

Prospective national candidates are already beginning to make positioning moves. For example, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is attempting to move closer to the political center with his comments this week regarding the homeless and his new podcast that features guests and topics not always aligned with the ideological left.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), conducting a series of public events with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), is moving even further left in an attempt to capture the Sanders’ coalition.

Former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is bypassing a Michigan US Senate campaign to prepare for another presidential run and already is visiting Iowa, while Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) is conducting a nationwide anti-Trump tour.

All of these individual strategic moves are illustrative regarding how each person attempts to best position him or herself toward grabbing an early advantage in the forthcoming intra-party brawl for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. Before the campaigns even get underway, however, the national party leaders face controversial rule-making decisions well in advance of any contender stepping forward to campaign in the early states.

The first such task is to determine just where are the early states. You will remember that the Democrats changed the political calendar before the 2024 election when they dropped Iowa and New Hampshire from the top two slots and chose to begin in South Carolina.

The 2024 schedule does not mean the party leaders have to adhere to the same progression in 2028, and as such the individual candidates will want their say in deciding not only the geographic order, but potentially other structural rules that the DNC Rules Committee could recommend be changed.

Since the early states have proven crucial in developing momentum for eventual party nominees, all 57 voting Democratic Party entities (states, territories, and the group of those Democrats living abroad) are likely to soon begin jockeying for position. Without a Democratic President in the White House, it falls upon the DNC to take the lead in setting the ground rules for the 2028 party nomination structure.

With big state Governors such as Newsom, Illinois’ J.B. Pritzker, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, and Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro likely to become presidential candidates, we can see a coalition forming to recommend that the mid-Atlantic states secure early positioning.

The southern contingent, led by Gov. Andy Beshear (KY) and former Gov. Roy Cooper (NC), will want their region placed early on the calendar, while some of the lesser-known contenders should advocate for smaller states going first since they are more responsive to grassroots campaign tactics that unfamiliar contenders need to give them a fighting chance.

Geographic order changes will not be the only rule discussed. We can expect the DNC to adopt a formalized procedure in the event of replacing a presidential candidate with pledged delegates who exits prior to the national convention. When President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race, there was no set procedure to replace him. Thus, the committee members had to adopt a plan on the fly that included virtual voting and other procedures, which caused some controversy among certain DNC members.

Since the Rules Committee must recommend an early state schedule to the full DNC voting membership and may look at adopting an official presidential candidate replacement procedure, they could also consider changing the delegate apportionment formula.

With so many candidates likely to run, a proposal from the big state DNC members to increase their delegate share could certainly come before the rules panel. Also, some of the candidates will likely advocate restoring the Super Delegates’ (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) ability to vote on the first ballot.

The 2028 presidential campaign will unofficially begin after the 2026 midterm elections, but the party leadership’s’ first significant hurdles will come in the relative near future.

Rep. Feenstra to Run for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 14, 2025

Governor

Iowa Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City)

It was a bit of a surprise when in April, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) announced that she would not seek a third full term next year. Because the active politicos believed she would run, it has taken awhile for major candidates to enter what should be a relatively competitive open Governor’s race. Now, however, candidates are beginning to come forward.

Reports from Hawkeye State indicate that three-term Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) has filed documents to enter the open 2026 Iowa Governor’s race. Almost simultaneously, State Auditor Rob Sand announced his intention to compete for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, thus possibly previewing what could become the general election campaign.

While state Sen. Mike Bousselot (R-Des Moines) and former state Rep. Brad Sherman are in the race, other major Republican potential contenders have either publicly declined to run or not taken action to move forward with a campaign.

The three other Republican congressional delegation members, Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire/Davenport), Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids), and Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant/ Des Moines) have all said they will not enter the Governor’s race and plan to seek re-election in 2026.

Lt. Gov. Chris Cournoyer (R) has announced for State Auditor. Attorney General Brenna Bird (R) is still a potential gubernatorial entrant, but the prevailing wisdom suggests she will seek re-election. Therefore, Rep. Feenstra should already be considered the early favorite for the party nomination.

On the Democratic side, Sand is the party’s only statewide elected official. There was some conjecture that he might challenge Sen. Joni Ernst (R), but when Gov. Reynolds decided not to seek a third term, it became probable that he would head for the open statewide election.

Potential primary opponents for Sand include state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines) and state Rep. J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City), who lost opposite Congressman Feenstra in 2020.

Three-term state Sen. Randy Feenstra came to Congress in 2021, after defeating by 10 percentage points then-Rep. Steve King in the 2020 Republican primary. He would go onto post a 62-38 percent win against Scholten in the associated general election. In his two re-election campaigns, Rep. Feenstra has averaged 67.2 percent of the vote.

The Congressman not seeking re-election means that now 16 seats will be open (9D-7R) heading into the next election. Two of the districts are vacant, AZ-7 and TX-18, due to the deaths of Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) and Sylvester Turner (D-TX). Both positions will be filled in 2025 special elections.

Iowa’s 4th District encompasses 36 west and central Iowa counties. The seat contains the entire South Dakota/Nebraska border region before stretching eastward to annex the city of Marshalltown, which lies northeast of Des Moines. The principal population centers are Sioux City, Council Bluffs, Ft. Dodge, and Marshalltown.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 61.9R – 34.9D partisan lean, making the 4th Iowa’s safest Republican seat. The Down Ballot political blog prognosticators rank IA-4 as the 81st-safest seat in the House Republican Conference. In the last two presidential elections, Donald Trump carried the district with margins of 65-34 and 62-36 percent over Kamala Harris and Joe Biden, respectively.

Testifying to the 4th’s strength as a Republican stronghold, in a close 2018 gubernatorial election Gov. Reynolds was elected statewide because of her overwhelming performance in this district. The Reynolds margin here was so large it enabled her to overcome losing the other three congressional districts.

This all suggests that Congressman Feenstra’s successor will be found in the Republican primary. We can, therefore, expect a crowded GOP contest.

Iowa recognizes plurality victories, but only if the leading candidate secures at least 35 percent of the vote. The top finishing candidate falling short of the 35 percent support threshold means a post-primary district convention would be called in which party delegates from each of the district’s 36 counties will choose a nominee.

LePage Returns to Maine (Again)

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 12, 2025

Governor

Former Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Former two-term Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R), who left the state for Florida only to return in 2022 to launch an unsuccessful run for his old job before leaving again, is coming back for yet another political run.

This week, LePage declared his federal candidacy against Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) for the state’s northern congressional district.

Rep. Golden was first elected in 2018, defeating then-GOP incumbent Bruce Poliquin thanks to the Ranked Choice Voting system used for Maine’s federal offices. Poliquin won the actual vote with a greater than 2,000 ballot margin but fell below the majority mark. The resulting Ranked Choice rounds would catapult Golden to his first congressional victory.

Ranked Choice Voting has helped him in subsequent elections, as well. The Congressman has averaged 51.7 percent of the vote over his four campaigns counting the Ranked Choice rounds, thus suggesting this seat is highly competitive. In 2024, Rep. Golden defeated then-state Representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault (R) with only 50.3 percent of the vote.

It had been presumed that Theriault would return for a re-match, but the entrance of former Gov. LePage may change his plans. State Rep. Mike Soboleski (R-Phillips), who challenged Theriault for the GOP nomination in 2024 but lost 67-33 percent, said this week that he too is considering running again.

Maine’s 2nd District is comprised of ten of the state’s 16 counties, six of which border Canada, and part of Kennebec County, which houses the capital city of Augusta. Maine is one of two states – Nebraska being the other – that allows its congressional districts to determine its own electoral vote in national elections. Though the Democratic presidential nominees have carried the state in the three Donald Trump election years, the current President won the 2nd district in each of those elections.

Even while President Trump carried ME-2 with a 53-44 percent spread last November, Rep. Golden managed to hang on, winning re-election by a slight seven-tenths of one percent margin (2,706 votes). In 2020, despite Trump losing the state to Joe Biden 52-44 percent, his 2nd District victory margin was 52-45 percent, or a raw number spread of just under 28,000 votes. In 2016, the Hillary Clinton statewide vote split was much closer, defeating Trump 46-43 percent. The Trump margin in the 2nd CD was 51-41 percent, meaning a raw vote margin of 36,360.

Considering these presidential numbers, and former Gov. LePage performing well in the 2nd CD during all of his statewide runs, this seat will certainly be in play next year.

At the beginning of the election cycle, speculation surrounded Rep. Golden about a possible run for Governor. He largely ruled out challenging Sen. Susan Collins (R) because he is her former staff member, but he clearly would be a strong general election gubernatorial candidate.

Securing the statewide Democratic nomination, however, might be a different story. Golden is one of only two Democrats – Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) being the other – who will vote with the Republicans on certain issues. Thus, his legislative record might prove detrimental in a hyper-partisan Democratic primary that now features two strong liberals, appointed Secretary of State Shenna Bellows and businessman Angus King, III, son of Maine’s junior Independent Senator of the same name.

So far, however, Rep. Golden has not made any move toward the Governor’s race and in an interview early this year hinted that he might not seek any office in 2026, including running for re-election.

Looking at the Congressman’s 1st Quarter Federal Election Commission financial disclosure report, however, suggests he is planning to remain in elective politics. Golden raised over $474,000 since the beginning of the year and held almost $449,000 in his congressional account at the end of March. Both of these numbers are solid for a Maine US House race, which is a strong clue that the Congressman is moving forward with a re-election campaign.

A Golden-LePage 2nd District race will be seriously competitive. Republicans will undoubtedly invest here since offensive opportunities are going to be extremely valuable to the GOP’s chances of holding, and possibly expanding upon, their current slim majority.

Georgia Gov. Kemp Out; Which
Other Governors Could Be In?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 8, 2025

Senate

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R)

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s announcement earlier in the week that he would not challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) next year was surprising to many but not all political observers.

In fact, it’s possible that we will see all of the Governors or ex-Governors who could run for the Senate in the various states take a pass on challenging a Senatorial incumbent or competing in an open seat situation.

The Kemp announcement now unfreezes the Republicans waiting in the wings who want to run statewide. Individuals who have expressed interest or at least confirm they are considering challenging Sen. Ossoff, include four members of the US House delegation. They are: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). Also counted among the possible candidates are state Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper and state Insurance Commissioner John King.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper conducted a statewide Georgia poll (April 15-24; 1,000 registered Georgia voters) and found Gov. Kemp, if he were to challenge Sen. Ossoff, leading the prospective race 49-46 percent.

Now, without Kemp in the candidate field, the advantage turns to Ossoff. The AJC poll found him leading King 51-38 percent, and topping Rep. Greene, 54-37 percent. Also tested was Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger who has said he’s considering a Senate bid but is more likely to enter the open Governor’s race. Raffensperger, however, polls best within this group against Sen. Ossoff, trailing 48-39 percent in the AJC poll. Reps. Carter, McCormick, and Collins were not tested.

The outlook suggests that the Georgia Republicans will now see a crowded Senate primary field, meaning it will become difficult for one candidate to win the nomination outright. The 2026 Peach State election calendar has not yet been set, but the likely statewide primary date will be May 19, 2026, with a runoff for the top two finishers, should no one reach the 50 percent threshold, probably scheduled for June 16. Therefore, the most plausible projection is that the Georgia GOP won’t have an official Senate nominee until late June of next year.

With Sen. Ossoff already possessing over $11 million in his campaign account, a number that will grow exponentially before the Republicans nominate their Senate candidate, he is in a favorable pre-election position.

Elsewhere, there are a dozen situations where a Governor or ex-Governor could conceivably run for an open Senate seat or challenge an incumbent of the opposite party.

Of the 12, we see one reverse situation. Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) appears intent on running for an open gubernatorial position.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could look at an open Senate seat campaign if Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) decides to run for Governor as expected, and Maine’s Janet Mills (D) could challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R) with the encouragement of many Democratic leaders. Neither, however, is likely to run for Senate because both are over or nearing 80 years old.

Aside from Gov. Kemp, four other Governors have already turned down opportunities to run for the Senate.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) has already endorsed Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D), while the Governor himself appears to be preparing a third run for his current position.

Term-limited Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is very likely to run for President in 2028 and will therefore bypass a run for her state’s open Senate seat.

Like Gov. Pritzker in Illinois, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, has endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan to replace retiring US Sen. Tina Smith (D). As with Pritzker, Gov. Walz is preparing to run for a third term.

New Hampshire ex-Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who like Gov. Kemp in Georgia would give the Republicans their best chance of converting a Democratic Senate seat, has also said he will not run in 2026. His future plans are only speculated upon, but a future presidential bid would not be out of the question.

Term-limited Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is not mentioned as a possible presidential candidate, but party leaders are encouraging her to challenge first-term Sen. Roger Marshall (R). It remains to be seen what the Governor will decide for 2026.

Two term-limited Governors and one ex-state chief executive are at the forefront of presidential prognostication, yet each sees a viable Senate situation developing in their respective state.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) could challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D) next year, since his one term will expire in early 2026. Though clearly looking at a presidential run, Gov. Youngkin, and any Republican, would face an uphill battle against Vice President J.D. Vance for the party nomination. A race against Sen. Warner would also be uphill, so Gov. Youngkin may see his electoral window closing.

On the Democratic side, Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) could enter what promises to be a very crowded 2028 Democratic presidential campaign. Should only one of these two run, that individual, either Beshear or Cooper coming from the southern region, would be a viable prospective nominee because of their opportunity to accumulate a large quantity of delegate support from the vote-rich South.

Signs are pointing to a situation where the aforementioned Governors or ex-Governors follow the Sununu and Kemp example and decline their party leaders overtures to launch a 2026 Senate campaign.

Sen. Tuberville to Run for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Governor

Senator and former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville

Though he has yet to make a formal announcement, first-term Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) has reportedly made the decision to eschew running for re-election and will instead enter his state’s open gubernatorial campaign.

Assuming the news stories and X tweets are correct, Alabama will become the sixth state to host an open Senate campaign. Tuberville will be joining Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI), Tina Smith (D-MN), Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), and Dick Durbin (D-IL) in the group that will not be seeking re-election in 2026.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is ineligible to run for a third term, meaning we could now see crowded Republican primaries for both Governor and Senator.

In the Governor’s race, no one has officially declared as yet, but Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth (R) has indicated he will soon make an announcement. State Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate (R), ex-Secretary of State John Merrill (R), and former corporate CEO and 2022 gubernatorial candidate Lew Burdette (R) are among the individuals mentioned as likely to run for Governor. For the Democrats, only Birmingham Mayor Randall Woodfin has been discussed as a potential contender.

It will be interesting to see whether a Tuberville gubernatorial candidacy will dissuade any of the aforementioned from running for Governor, thus allowing them to take advantage of the opportunity to switch lanes and enter an open Senate campaign.

Sen. Tuberville began his political career in 2020 with his run for the Senate, after gaining notoriety as a major college football coach, principally at Alabama’s Auburn University.

From a historical perspective, the state’s electorate saw a great deal of Senate action once President Trump began his first term. Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) was appointed US Attorney General, thus leading to his resignation from the legislative post he held since the beginning of 1997.

After serving about a year in his new position, AG Sessions experienced a major falling out with President Trump that resulted in his resignation. Mr. Sessions would later return to Alabama in an attempt to regain his Senate seat.

In the 2017 special election to replace Sen. Sessions, Democrat Doug Jones took advantage of Republican discord and the party nominating a weak candidate when appointed Sen. Luther Strange (R) lost the special primary. The developments paved the way for Jones to score an upset victory.

Turning to the 2020 general election, Sen. Jones’s political magic disappeared when Tuberville garnered 60 percent of the vote to convert the seat to the Republican column.

Earlier, in that year’s Republican primary, Tuberville defeated ex-Sen. Sessions 61-39 percent after the two qualified for a runoff from the seven-candidate Republican primary. Tuberville finished first in the initial election with 33.4 percent while Sessions garnered 31.6 percent.

The fact that a former multi-term Senator could only attract little more than 30 percent in his own party’s primary doomed him for the runoff election, and Tuberville took full advantage of the situation with help from President Trump.

During Tuberville’s initial term in the Senate, he established a strong conservative record and reputation, which should allow him to begin the gubernatorial race in the favorite’s position. As with most Alabama statewide elections, winning the Republican nomination is tantamount to claiming victory in November, and the 2026 preview fails to suggest any deviation from this pattern.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate for Alabama a 63.9R – 34.5D partisan lean, thus giving further credence to the analysis that the eventual gubernatorial and Senatorial Republican nominees will be heavy favorites to again win the Yellowhammer State’s November 2026 elections.