By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 5, 2025
Governor
NY Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is being challenged by her own hand-picked Lieutenant Governor.
Immediately upon hearing the Delgado announcement, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) publicly noted that the Lieutenant Governor’s action underscores her own talking point. That is, that with Gov. Hochul’s hand-picked running mate turning on her, it is yet another indication that she is a failed state chief executive. Rep. Stefanik is expected to seek the Republican gubernatorial nomination.
The Delgado announcement may affect New York’s Democratic congressional delegation because Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) is also considering entering the party’s gubernatorial primary.
In fact, the early Delgado announcement may be directed more at Torres than Hochul. Polling consistently shows both the challenger and potential challenger each taking between 10 to 13 percent of the Democratic vote against the Governor, thus splitting the anti-incumbent vote. Therefore, both entering the race would almost assuredly guarantee a Hochul plurality primary win.
Conversely, should Rep. Torres seek re-election, Lt. Gov. Delgado’s total support figure against the Governor could conceivably double as a result. Therefore, one credible challenger with a significant support base a full year before the state’s June 23 primary opposite an incumbent who generally posts mediocre job approval ratings has the makings of a serious race.
Additionally, we can now expect both the Governor and Delgado to soon make a strong pitch to obtain the Working Families Party ballot line. Doing so would be particularly important for Delgado, since being the Working Families Party nominee – candidates can appear on more than one ballot line in New York – would guarantee him a spot in the general election.
Having the WFP line would also be important to Gov. Hochul, since her appearing as that party’s standard bearer would shut out another Democrat or left-of-center candidate from advancing into the general election. With the power of the Governorship in her political toolbox, it would appear that Hochul is in a stronger position to obtain the minor party endorsement than Delgado.
Should Rep. Torres decide to enter the race, his likely strategy would be to concentrate on his New York City base, since both Gov. Hochul and Lt. Gov. Delgado hail from upstate New York, as well as building within the state’s substantial Jewish community. Rep. Torres has been a staunch and vocal supporter of Israel and thus has the opportunity of developing this coalition into a major support asset. Even with these advantages, Rep. Torres would still likely lag behind in a three-way race.
Rep. Stefanik, or the eventual Republican gubernatorial nominee, would see a best-case scenario from the GOP perspective with a close Hochul win from an internally divisive Democratic primary campaign.
Even a best-case Republican scenario, however, is unlikely to yield a statewide victory unless new trends are developed. While President Donald Trump saw a greater improvement in New York than any other state when comparing his 2024 performance with what he recorded in 2020 (up a net 10.6 percentage points), he still lost to Kamala Harris by a substantial 55-43 percent margin. EPA Administrator, former New York Congressman, and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Lee Zeldin finished stronger than any Republican candidate since George Pataki was last re-elected in 2002, but Zeldin still lost to Gov. Hochul, 53-47 percent.
Despite poor favorability ratings and a serious intra-party challenge, Gov. Hochul must still be rated as at least a slight favorite to win re-election next year. The campaign, however, does promise to become intriguing and one that will capture considerable national political attention.