Category Archives: Election Analysis

Tennessee Sen. Blackburn Moving Closer to a Run for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2025

Governor

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Further political developments suggest that Tennessee Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn is serious about running for Governor in 2026, and new polling data indicate that she may enjoy an easy path toward attaining the state house mansion in Nashville.

A new Fabrizio Lee survey of Tennessee Republican primary voters suggests that Sen. Blackburn is off to a fast start in what appears to be her budding gubernatorial campaign. According to the Fabrizio Lee data (Jan. 13-16; 800 likely Tennessee Republican primary voters; live interview and text), Sen. Blackburn would outpace US Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) by a whopping 71-13 percent margin in an early Republican primary poll.

The ballot test margin grows even larger if President Donald Trump would endorse Blackburn. If so, the spread then becomes 78-11 percent. To underscore Sen. Blackburn’s strength against Rep. Rose, she outpolls him even in the Congressman’s own district. In the 6th CD, Sen. Blackburn would top Rose, 55-27 percent.

Additionally, Sen. Blackburn’s favorability index within this Republican voter sample is an overwhelming 82:12 favorable to unfavorable.

Furthermore, Sen. Blackburn’s electoral history is strong. She was re-elected to a second Senatorial term on November 5th with a 64-34 percent margin. In 2018, she won her first statewide campaign in a 55-44 percent victory spread. Prior to running for the Senate, Blackburn served eight terms in the House from western Tennessee’s 7th District. In her eight elections, she averaged 73.9 percent of the vote, reaching or breaking the 70 percent threshold in six of her eight campaigns.

Other House members were reportedly looking at the Governor’s race, but Sen. Blackburn’s intentions are likely to dissuade them from running. In addition to Congressman Rose, Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), Andy Ogles (R-Columbia), and Mark Green (R-Clarksville) had all been mentioned at one time or another as having an interest in exploring the Governor’s race.

No major potential candidate has officially announced his or her intentions as yet, but Rep. Rose appeared almost certain to run for Governor until Sen. Blackburn began sending signals about her interest. Her Senate campaign airing post-election thank you ads is even further evidence that Blackburn is clearly heading toward a final decision about becoming a gubernatorial candidate.

With polling data such as described, it is probable that Sen. Blackburn will face little in the way of primary opposition in the open Governor’s race; and, in clinching the Republican nomination, she would become the prohibitive favorite to secure the general election.

Gov. Bill Lee (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Should Sen. Blackburn run and win the governorship, she would be able to appoint her own Senate successor since Tennessee is one of 36 states where the Governor can appoint an individual to fill a Senate vacancy.

If Blackburn were to become Governor and obviously resign from the Senate, her appointed federal designee would serve until the 2028 general election. If the individual wins the special election to fill the balance of the term, he or she would next face the voters in 2030 when the seat next comes in-cycle for a full six-year term.

An Activity-Laden Gubernatorial Week Across the Country

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 27, 2025

Governor

With South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem officially being confirmed for her federal position as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) ascends to the Governorship. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

While political activity is largely quiet in the early 2026 Senate and House races, the same is not true for budding Governors’ campaigns.

First, in South Dakota, with Gov. Kristi Noem officially being confirmed for her federal position as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) ascends to the Governorship and is expected to seek a full term in 2026. Noem was term-limited for the coming election, so a GOP nomination fight has been expected for months.

With Rhoden now the sitting Governor, a major multi-candidate Republican primary may be avoided. At this time, however, it is too early to tell exactly how the state’s politics may unfold. For his part, Rhoden served as Lieutenant Governor for the entirety of Noem’s tenure as Governor, beginning in 2019. Prior to assuming his statewide office, Rhoden served for 16 years in the state legislature.

Late last week in Michigan, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) announced that she will seek the Democratic gubernatorial nomination to succeed term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D). This race will be complicated with the presence of Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an Independent. He was elected to his present position three times as a Democrat.

The possibility of splitting the Democratic vote between Duggan and the eventual party nominee could give the eventual Republican nominee the opportunity of winning the statewide vote with just plurality support. Crowded primaries in both major parties are expected to form.

Turning to New Mexico, Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), who had been considering making a bid for Governor on the heels of his re-election to a third term, announced last week that he will not enter the race. This likely makes former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland the Democrats’ leading candidate to succeed term-limited Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D).

In Ohio, Attorney General David Yost (R) formalized his gubernatorial campaign with a specific announcement late last week, though for months it has been no secret that he would run. With Lt. Gov. Jon Husted, who was thought to be Yost’s main opponent, now an appointed US Senator, the Attorney General’s top GOP competitor may well be former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy who is expected to make a formal announcement this week. State Treasurer Robert Sprague (R) also announced his candidacy earlier this month.

The state’s health care director during COVID, Dr. Amy Acton, has already announced for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, but we can expect additional individuals to ultimately declare their candidacies. Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) confirmed last week that she is seriously considering a run for Governor since incumbent Henry McMaster (R) is ineligible to succeed himself. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette and Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), are also potential Republican gubernatorial candidates. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) is also mentioned as a possible contender, but if he is to launch a statewide Republican primary bid it would more likely be against Sen. Lindsey Graham.

As mentioned in our column late last week, Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) is now running “thank you” ads for her Senate victory, which is an apparent move to solidify support for the open 2026 Governor’s race. It was clear that several GOP members of the Tennessee congressional delegation were preparing to run, specifically Rep. John Rose (R-Clarksville) who was scheduled to announce soon after the November election, but such may not materialize.

Sen. Blackburn’s presence in the race, with polls showing she would easily win a gubernatorial primary is suggesting that the twice-elected Senator won’t even draw major opposition. Should she choose to run to succeed term-limited Gov. Bill Lee (R), it appears she would be a lock to win both the Republican primary and general elections.

Only 16 Districts Split the Ticket

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Jan. 23, 2025

Electorate

President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Of the 435 US House races conducted in 2024, only 16 district electorates voted for a different party’s nominee for Representative than they did for President. This means 96.3 percent of the US House district electorates voted a straight party ticket for President and the US House.

In the Senate races, ticket splitting was slightly more prevalent. A total of 88.2 percent of the Senate electorates voted straight ticket. For this calculation, the two Senators elected as Independents but who caucus with the Democrats, Sens. Angus King (I-ME) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), are counted in the Democratic column.

The electorates from a total of 13 CDs voted for President Donald Trump and then turned around and chose a Democratic Congressman. Just three congressional electorates voted Republican for the House after supporting former Vice President Kamala Harris.

The information comes from a Kyle Kondik article for The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. He cites district calculations relating to the presidential and US House contests from Drew Savicki of Election Twitter.

Of the 13 Trump districts that voted Democratic for the House, two are in northern California and another pair lie in south Texas.

In northern California, while then-Rep. John Duarte (R) was losing his Modesto anchored district to Democrat Adam Gray by just 187 votes, which proved the closest House contest in the country, President Trump notched a 51-46 percent victory. Just to the north, in the Stockton anchored 9th CD, Rep. Josh Harder (D-Turlock) was re-elected with a 52-48 percent margin even though Trump recorded a victory spread of approximately 1.5 percentage points.

Turning to the Rio Grande Valley, while indicted Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) was winning an 11th term with a 53-47 percent margin in his district that stretches from San Antonio to the US-Mexican border, Trump won with a slightly larger 53-46 percent vote spread.

To the east in the Brownsville-anchored 34th District, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) defeated former Rep. Mayra Flores (R) 51-49 percent, while President Trump expanded his margin to 52-47 percent; this, in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+17. In the past two elections, however, the 34th has voted more Republican, so we can expect a rating adjustment for this particular district.

The other Democrats who won their individual elections even though Trump was winning in their districts are: Reps. Jared Golden (ME-2), Kristen McDonald Rivet (MI-8), Nellie Pou (NJ-9), Gabe Vasquez (NM-2), Don Davis (NC-1), Susie Lee (NV-3), Tom Suozzi (NY-3), Marcy Kaptur (OH-9), and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-3).

The three Republican victories that flipped from Harris to a Republican House candidate came in GOP incumbent seats. Reps. Don Bacon (NE-2), Mike Lawler (NY-17), and Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-1) all won re-election to the House even though Trump failed to carry their districts.

In the 2020 election, there were also 16 electorates that voted split ticket for President and US House, but the complexion is different.

Those districts that voted for Joe Biden and a Republican House member in 2020 and switched to Trump in 2024 while continuing to support a GOP House candidate are: AZ-1 (Rep. David Schweikert) and CA-22 (Rep. David Valadao).

Those that voted for Trump and a Democratic House contender in 2020 but returned to a Republican-Republican ticket in ’24 are: AZ-2 (Rep. Eli Crane-R/formerly Rep. Tom O’Halleran-D), IA-3 (Rep. Zach Nunn-R/formerly Rep. Cindy Axne-D), and PA-8 (Rep. Rob Bresnahan-R/formerly Rep. Matt Cartwright-D). Within this latter group, Rep. Cartwright was defeated in the 2024 election. Reps. O’Halleran and Axne lost their seats in 2022.

As you can see, the vast majority of the electorate still tends to vote straight party, and particularly so in presidential election years. It remains to be seen if we will see a pattern shift coming in 2026.

Cooper’s Challenge; Texas Senate Battle; Democrat’s Election Battle; PA-8, WA-4 House News; Governor Races Maneuvering

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2025

Senate

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (R)

North Carolina — Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who would be the national Democrats’ first choice to challenge Sen. Thom Tillis (R), said this week that he will make a decision about running “in the next few months.” Cooper is also apparently testing the waters for a presidential run in the open 2028 election. Former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D), who did not seek re-election to a second term in 2024 because of an adverse redistricting map, has already declared his intention to challenge Sen. Tillis.

Texas — A new Victory Insights poll of the Texas Republican electorate (Jan. 4-6; number of respondents not released; interactive voice response system and text) finds Sen. John Cornyn (R) trailing state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in an early 2026 Republican primary pairing. It has long been rumored that Paxton is going to launch a primary challenge to Sen. Cornyn, a move that Paxton does not deny.

According to the ballot test, Paxton would lead the Senator 42-34 percent, which is a very low support performance for any long-time incumbent. AG Paxton does best with the conservative base, leading Cornyn 55-23 percent among the self-described MAGA segment, and 50-24 percent from the group that describes themselves as constitutional conservatives. Sen. Cornyn rebounds to a 50-15 percent spread among traditional Republicans, and 59-18 percent within the self-described moderate Republican segment. Clearly, this early data suggests the 2026 Texas Republican primary will attract a great deal of coming national political attention.

DSCC — New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has officially been chosen to head the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for the 2026 election cycle. She replaces Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) who cannot succeed himself since he is in-cycle for the coming campaign. Sen. Gillibrand will be tasked with quarterbacking the Democrats’ efforts to reclaim the majority they lost in 2024.

While the map forces the Republicans to risk what will be 22 seats in the 35 Senate races, which includes two special elections, the odds of Democrats re-electing all 13 of their in-cycle Senators and converting four GOP seats to reach a 51-seat Democratic majority appear long.

House

PA-8 — Former Pennsylvania Rep. Matt Cartwright (D), who just lost his Scranton-anchored congressional seat to freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township), indicated that he is considering returning in 2026 to seek a re-match. Bresnahan unseated then-Rep. Cartwright with a 50.8 – 49.2 percent majority, a margin of 4,062 votes of 403,314 cast ballots. Cartwright said he will make a decision about running in the next few months.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates PA-8 as R+8, so the Bresnahan victory was not a huge upset considering the region’s voter history and that Cartwright’s last two election victories in 2020 and 2022 were close.

WA-4 — Ex-congressional candidate Jerrod Sessler (R) says he will return to challenge Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) for a third time in 2026. Despite placing first in the 2024 jungle primary, Sessler lost to the Congressman by a 52-46 percent margin even with President-Elect Donald Trump’s endorsement. Rep. Newhouse is one of two remaining House Republicans who voted for the second Trump impeachment.

In 2022, Sessler failed to qualify for the general election, placing fourth in a field of eight candidates with 12.3 percent of the vote. Beginning an early 2026 campaign, Congressman Newhouse will again be favored to win re-election.

Governor

New Jersey — In a 2025 gubernatorial campaign that is already featuring a very competitive Democratic primary to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D), a new election date has been scheduled. Due to a conflict with a Jewish holiday, Gov. Murphy announced he was moving the state primary from June 3, 2025, to June 10.

Already in the Democratic race are two current Representatives, Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) and Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), and three Mayors, Sean Spiller (Montclair), Ras Baraka (Newark), and Steve Fulop (Jersey City), along with former state Senate President Steve Sweeney. For the Republicans, 2021 gubernatorial nominee and ex-state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, state Sen. Jon Bramnick (D-Plainfield), and radio talk show host Bill Spadea are the major candidates.

Ohio — This week, Dr. Amy Acton (D), who became a regular media figure in 2020 as Ohio’s Covid chief, announced that she will run to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike DeWine (R). Competitive primaries are expected in both parties with the eventual GOP nominee becoming the favorite for the general election considering Ohio’s recent voting history.

Gov. DeWine’s choice to replace Sen. J.D. Vance (R) when he resigns to become Vice President could affect the Republican gubernatorial lineup. Expect a great deal of action in the Governor’s race once the Senate pick is announced.

Ohio Gov. DeWine Soon to Announce New Senator to Replace J.D. Vance

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 13, 2025

Senate

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R)

At a news conference at the end of last week, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) indicated that he will “probably” name a replacement for resigned Sen. J.D. Vance (R) this week. Vance, elected Vice President, resigned on Jan. 10 to prepare for his Inauguration.

There has been much speculation around who Gov. DeWine will choose, and he and his staff members have been tight-lipped throughout the process. Local media reports suggest that Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) is the favorite for the appointment, but he has, heretofore, indicated an unwillingness to accept, saying rather that he wants to stay in Ohio to compete in the open 2026 Governor’s race. DeWine is ineligible to seek a third term under the state’s term limits law.

Late last week, however, Lt. Gov. Husted seemed more open to a Senate appointment, saying “we’re considering all of the options,” when asked if he was interested in replacing Sen. Vance.

Whoever the Governor appoints will have to run in a special election to serve the balance of the term in 2026, and then again in 2028 for a full six-year stint when the seat again comes in-cycle. One Democrat waiting in the wings to possibly run again is former three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat in November to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R). Brown has broadly hinted that his career in electoral politics has not yet come to a close.

Other names have been bandied about. According to a report from Cleveland’s NewsChannel5.com, the other potential options if Husted decides he wants to remain in the Governor’s race include former Ohio Republican Party chair and ex-US Senate candidate Jane Timken, State Treasurer Robert Sprague, former state Rep. Jay Edwards (R) who was chairman of the House Finance Committee, Secretary of State Frank LaRose, and ex-state Sen. Matt Dolan (R). The latter two men were unsuccessful 2024 Senate candidates.

Several Ohio US House members would be considered as potential appointees in a typical year, but not in 2025. With the Republicans having only a current 218-215 majority because of a resignation and a presidential appointment, and another coming when Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is confirmed as US Ambassador to the United Nations, the scant Republican majority is too small for DeWine and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) to appoint Representatives to fill their respective Senate vacancies.

Gov. DeSantis will appoint a replacement for Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio (R-FL) when he resigns from the Senate after his confirmation is secured.

Husted will likely get the appointment if he so desires. Back in 2018 when then-Attorney General DeWine was first running for Governor, Husted, then Secretary of State, and then-Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor were his major Republican primary opponents. When it appeared that DeWine and Husted would split the moderate/centrist Republican vote, possibly meaning that neither would win the primary, Husted offered DeWine a deal.

In his suggested approach, Husted said he would drop down to the Lieutenant Governor’s race and endorse DeWine if Dewine would support him for the secondary position with the two then effectively running as a team. DeWine agreed, and the plan worked.

Though Husted could likely claim the Senate appointment as a political payback if he so chose, the campaign road is not altogether easy. Even with being granted a seat in the Senate, Husted would still have to defend in 2026, and possibly against Sherrod Brown who raised $103-plus million in his losing 2024 effort, and then run again for the full term two years later as mentioned above. This means Husted (and any other appointee) would have to be in constant fundraising and campaign mode realistically over four consecutive years.

Considering President-Elect Donald Trump’s three consecutive victories in Ohio, including his 11-point win in November, DeWine winning in 2018 by five percentage points when polling suggested he would lose by that amount, and Vice President-Elect Vance and Sen. Moreno topping the vote in 2022 and 2024, Ohio has turned consistently red.

Therefore, it is most probable that the newly appointed Senator will be rated as the favorite to win in ’26, and most likely in 2028. Yet, constantly being in campaign mode for a long period of time before a big state electorate will not be easy. Of course, competing in a tough open Governor’s primary and general election is not a sure-fire draw either.

Ohio will again become a significant political state in the coming elections, with the marathon Senate campaign cycles effectively beginning for real as early as this week when Gov. DeWine is expected to reveal who earns his appointment.

Sen. Cornyn Trails in Early Poll

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Jan. 10, 2025

Senate

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R)

A Republican primary battle between Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) has been brewing for months if not years. A new political survey suggests the long-anticipated challenge is about to begin.

A 2025 Victory Insights poll of the Texas Republican electorate (Jan. 4-6, 2025; number of respondents not released; interactive voice response system and text) finds Sen. Cornyn trailing AG Paxton in an early 2026 Republican primary pairing. Sen. Cornyn has repeatedly confirmed that he will run for a fifth term, and Paxton, while not yet publicly committing to challenging the Senator, also does not deny he will make such a move.

According to the Victory Insights ballot test of Texas Republican voters, Paxton would lead the Senator, 42-34 percent, which is a low support number for any long-time incumbent. AG Paxton does best with the conservative base, leading Cornyn 55-23 percent among the self-described MAGA segment, and 50-24 percent from the group that describes themselves as constitutional conservatives. Sen. Cornyn rebounds to a 50-15 percent spread among traditional Republicans, and 59-18 percent within the self-described moderate Republican segment.

Paxton was first elected Attorney General in 2014 and has been the center point of much controversy ever since, yet he continues to politically survive.

He was indicted for SEC violations in his private practice not related to his public service. The federal government held the indictment for years before finally settling the case in 2024. He also faced a mass staff resignation with certain individuals accusing the Attorney General of taking bribes. Paxton’s extramarital affair became public knowledge, and while being impeached in the state House of Representatives last year, he survived a removal from office vote in the state Senate.

Despite his various travails, Paxton has continued to win re-election. He has averaged 54.3 percent of the vote in his three statewide general elections, and 62.4 percent in his three Republican primary campaigns. For his third term in 2022, Paxton was forced into a runoff election to win the party nomination, but easily defeated Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush by a 66.5 – 33.5 percent whopping majority.

Sen. Cornyn has proved stronger than Paxton in GOP primaries, however. Over his four Senate campaigns, the Senator has averaged 73.5 percent in Republican nomination elections. Cornyn was also elected as Attorney General and to the Texas Supreme Court over his long career. In his four Senate general election campaigns, Cornyn has averaged 56.3 percent of the vote.

Expect this primary challenge to soon launch and last the better part of a year. Texas features early primaries, so the next statewide nomination campaign will culminate on March 3, 2026.

Considering Paxton’s personal history, upsetting Cornyn for the Republican nomination would put the Senate seat in danger for the GOP in the general election.

As we saw in November, a Texas general election can become competitive even though the last time a Democrat won a major statewide race in the state was 30-plus years ago in 1994. Then-Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) raised a huge $94.6 million for his 2024 race against Sen. Ted Cruz (R), and while polling continued to show toss-up results the Democrat still lost by more than eight percentage points.

While Allred proved himself a strong fundraiser and a credible candidate, it wasn’t the year for a Democrat to win a Texas statewide race. The Biden energy policies were harmful to the state’s economy and the southern border situation had a more adverse effect upon this domain than any other. With President-Elect Donald Trump racking up a 13-plus point win in the state, his strongest Texas performance of his three national runs, Allred had little chance of overcoming the continuous political wind blowing in his face.

Against Paxton in a midterm election, however, the situation may change. Should Allred run again, and an intense Republican primary battle could encourage him to try again among other factors, we would see a legitimately competitive general election with an uncertain outcome since the issue matrix is likely to be much different in 2026.

Clearly, this early data and political chatter suggests the 2026 Texas Republican primary will attract a great deal of national political attention, as will the general election. This one early Victory Insights poll notwithstanding Sen. Cornyn must still be rated the favorite to prevail in what promises to be a raucous coming intraparty battle.

Upcoming Reapportionment A Harbinger of Potential Major Political Shift

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025

President

President-Elect Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

The current mid-decade population calculations for the coming 2030 census and national reapportionment not only mean a potential major political shift in congressional district locations, but significant change may also come to the next decade’s presidential elections.

Yesterday, we covered the Brennan Center for Justice’s recently released 2030 census reapportionment projection that showed what could become a major partisan flip in the Republicans’ favor. The changes would also alter the presidential campaign strategies for the national elections coming in the ‘30s.

The big changes would include affecting in a major way the electoral vote counts within the Democrats’ two largest voting states of California and New York. The Brennan Center calculations, and those from the American Redistricting Project which released similar but not identical projections in October, see the Democrats losing six electoral votes from the two entities (four down in California; minus two in New York).

Looking at the estimated congressional district gains in the two large Republican strongholds of Texas and Florida (each state would gain four seats according to the BC calculations) adds an even more significant electoral vote increase presumably for a Republican presidential nominee as soon as the 2032 national election.

If the Brennan Center calculations were in effect for the 2024 election, for example, President-Elect Donald Trump’s 312-226 electoral vote victory would have been even larger.

Adding the changes in California, Florida, New York, and Texas along with other states that are projected to gain or lose single seats, the Trump EV victory total would have ballooned to a 322-216 margin. This means the net swing would have been a huge 20 electoral votes just from the population shifts projected for the next census and reapportionment.

To put in perspective just how large a margin is seen in this projected swing, the 2020 census saw only seven congressional districts change states. The result added a net three electoral votes to the Republican total, boosting a starting base of what became a Trump nomination to 235 from his actual 2020 total of 232 EVs.

Looking at the projected 2030 list of 14 states that will gain or lose representation from one to four seats apiece helps illustrate the evolving trends. Among Arizona, California, Florida, Idaho, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Utah, and Wisconsin, only two of the places, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (both losing one seat), adversely affects the Republican vote count when overlayed with the 2024 Trump election.

At this point, we can mention that the American Redistricting Project found a slightly different calculation.

This organization projected both Georgia and Tennessee, the electorates from each of which voted for Trump, gaining one congressional seat apiece, while Wisconsin holds firm with an eight-district delegation. ARP then finds New York losing three seats and Florida gaining three. The Brennan Center found New York losing two and Florida gaining four. ARP also projected Illinois losing two seats as compared to the BC calculation suggesting that the Land of Lincoln would lose one.

Obviously, much will change in terms of population shift in the latter part of the current decade to alter the final outcome of the coming 2030 census reapportionment, so the differences between the BC and ARP calculations at this point are negligible.

The core population patterns, however, of great swings shifting away from the Northeast, Midwest, and Pacific Coast to the South and interior West look to significantly favor Republicans, and that trend is unlikely to change.

Taking the ultimate geographical shifts into account, we will see heightened political activity designed to enhance political persuasion in the affected states. Therefore, partisan messaging in the 2026 and ’28 election cycles will become another significant factor in determining whether the 2024 election, as some political observers believe, has launched a national political realignment that may culminate in the next census reapportionment.