Author Archives: Jim Ellis

Political News Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Aug. 11, 2025

Senate

Former Florida Attorney General and current US Sen. Ashley Moody

Florida — Educator and 2025 special election congressional nominee Josh Weil (D) announced that he is dropping his US Senate bid. Weil says a health condition prevents him from continuing his campaign. Earlier this year, he ran as a socialist in a conservative district but managed to raise more than $15 million mostly from national sources. Weil lost to now-Rep. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) by a 57-43 percent margin in the April special election.

Nine Democrats remain in the primary race. Former Congressman Alan Grayson is the only contender ever elected to office. Appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) is competing in the 2026 statewide special election to serve the balance of the current Senate term. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) appointed Moody, then the state’s Attorney General, to replace Marco Rubio, who was appointed US Secretary of State.

Iowa — Two more Democrats are coming forward to enter the 2026 US Senate primary. Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, a former chief of staff to First Lady Michelle Obama, announced during the week that she will enter the Senate primary. Expected to soon declare is state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs).

Already in the Democratic primary are state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines) and state Rep. J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City). The eventual party nominee will challenge Sen. Joni Ernst (R) in the general election.

House

AL-1 — In anticipation of Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) announcing for the Senate on Aug. 15, former US Rep. Jerry Carl (R), who lost to Moore when the two were paired in one district after a 2023 court-ordered redistricting, has filed a 2026 congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission. The move further suggests that Carl will attempt a political comeback once Rep. Moore officially declares for the open Senate seat as expected.

Chances appear strong that ex-Rep. Carl will be able to win the open 1st District Republican primary and the general election in November of 2026. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation for AL-1 is 76.5R – 22.0D.

CA-32 — Jake Levine (D), a former Biden Administration official and son of former Rep. Mel Levine (D-CA), announced his challenge to veteran Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks). Jake Rakov, a former Sherman staff member who says the Congressman has lost touch with his constituents, is also in the race. It is likely that another Democrat will advance into the general election against Rep. Sherman, who is virtually guaranteed to advance from the June 2, 2026, jungle primary.

CA-45 — Ex-Rep. Michelle Steel (R) announced that she will not return for a re-match against freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange). After her defeat by a margin of just 563 votes out of nearly 316,000 cast ballots, the second-closest race in the country, Steel filed a 2026 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. Now saying she has “other goals,” Steel is abandoning a congressional comeback effort for next year.

The 45th District, which contains parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties, carries a 52.2D – 45.9R partisan lean according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. Kamala Harris topped President Trump here, 49.3 – 47.8 percent.

IL-16 — Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Peoria), after indicating he was considering entering the 2026 Illinois Governor’s race, has instead decided to seek re-election to a seventh term in the US House. Holding one of only three Illinois Republican seats, Rep. LaHood will be a prohibitive favorite to win both renomination and re-election in 2026.

NV-1 — State Sen. Carrie Buck (R-Henderson) announced that she will challenge veteran Rep. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas) next year. Republicans have needed a stronger candidate to oppose the Congresswoman in a district that could become highly competitive. Dave’s Redistricting App rates the NV-1 partisan lean as 52.6D – 42.3R, but the presidential races have proven closer. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried the district, but with only a 50.2 – 48.0 percent victory margin. In 2020, President Biden won the seat with a 53.2 – 44.7 percent spread. Rep. Titus will be favored for re-election, but this is a contest that could draw national attention.

NY-1 — Air Traffic Controller and Army National Guard Black Hawk helicopter pilot Chris Gallant (D) announced his intention to compete for the Democratic nomination to challenge two-term Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County). In his two congressional races, Rep. LaLota recorded a pair of 55 percent victories. Assuming the district remains in its current configuration, the Congressman will again be a clear favorite for re-election.

Governor

Alaska — Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), in what could be an off-the-cuff response to a reporter’s question, indicated that she is considering entering the open Governor’s race next year. A crowded field is forming on both sides, but obviously Sen. Murkowski would become a key competitor if she were to run. Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

California — Diamond Resorts International time share founder Stephen Cloobeck (D) joined the growing field for the 2026 open Governor’s campaign. Cloobeck began by issuing attack statements against his new opponents, and in particular toward ex-Rep. Katie Porter (D). More than 70 individuals have announced their intention to enter the statewide jungle primary. It remains to be seen just how many qualify for the ballot. It is certain, however, that the June 2, 2026, primary field will be large. Regardless of percentage attained and party affiliation, the top two finishers will advance into the general election.

Maine — Businessman Ben Midgley, the former long-time president of the Planet Fitness national gym company, announced that he will enter what is becoming a crowded open gubernatorial field in both parties. Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term but is not ruling out a challenge to Sen. Susan Collins (R).

In addition to Midgley, state Sen. Jim Libby (R-Cumberland), former Assistant US Secretary of State Bobby Charles, businessman Jonathan Bush, real estate developer David Jones, University of Maine Trustee Owen McCarthy, and Paris Town Supervisor Robert Wessels, appear to be the major Republican candidates.

For the Democrats, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland), businessman Angus King III, son of Sen. Angus King (I), and former state Senate President Troy Jackson are the major contenders. The eventual Democratic nominee will be favored to hold the position.

State and City

Georgia Attorney General — Former state House Minority Leader Bob Trammell (D) announced his candidacy for the open Attorney General’s position during the week. Republican state Sens. Bill Cowsert (R-Athens) and Brian Strickland (R-McDonough) are battling for the Republican nomination. Incumbent Attorney General Chris Carr (R) is running for Governor. Expect a close open seat general election battle for this office.

Kansas Attorney General — 2022 Attorney General nominee Chris Mann (D) announced he will return to seek a re-match with incumbent AG Kris Kobach (R). Three years ago, Kobach won a close 51-49 percent open general election.

Kobach has been controversial over the years especially when losing the 2018 open gubernatorial election to current Gov. Laura Kelly (D). Speculation was that Kobach would again enter the Governor’s race, but there is no recent indication that he will do so. Still, he can expect to see a competitive re-election battle for Attorney General next November.

Detroit Mayor — The Detroit mayoral jungle primary election was held on Aug. 5, and two Democrats advanced into the November general election. City Council President Mary Sheffield exceeded the 50 percent threshold in the first election, but under the Detroit city procedure one cannot win outright even with majority support. Therefore, she advances into an open November general election against second place finisher Solomon Kinloch, a well-known local pastor.

The field featured nine candidates including retired former Detroit Police Chief James Craig who was running as a Republican. Incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan (I) is not seeking a fourth term in order to run for Governor.

Seattle Mayor — In what will be a general election of far-left candidates, community organizer Katie Wilson (D) placed first in the Aug. 5 primary election with Mayor Bruce Harrell (D) finishing a close second among the eight candidates. Neither reached the majority support mark of 50 percent, as both finished in the high 40s. The general election will be highly competitive.

Trump Orders New Census

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 8, 2025

Census

The redistricting wars are heating up early in this decade, but the latest move coming from Washington could increase the political temperatures to a “white hot” level.

President Donald Trump yesterday ordered the Census Bureau to craft new state population numbers without including non-citizens. Taken to the fullest, the move could lead to transformational ramifications in many places over the course of time.

As we know, the current redistricting wars are intensifying. The Texas situation is in a current stalemate but will eventually come to fruition. The Ohio lines will be redrawn before the end of the year to comply with state law, and Florida state House Speaker Daniel Perez (R-Miami-Dade County) yesterday announced that he is appointing a special redistricting committee to begin a remap in his state with Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) political blessing.

Several Democratic Governors have responded, threatening retaliation with redrawing their own states to counter what will likely be significant Republican congressional district gains in the aforementioned places.

The Trump census decision, however, will not only add fuel to the fire, but change the political dynamic in ways that are just beginning to be realized.

The heart of the census issue is, of course, whether the large US illegal non-citizen population should continue to be counted. The President specifically is directing the Commerce Department to recraft the census that would include only American citizens. Doing so would reduce the population numbers — at least for purposes of federal grants and redistricting — by at least 11.9 million people according to the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Homeland Security Statistics’ calculations.

In the current census, the individuals in question are included in the state counts.

Additionally, others have pointed to potential flaws in the 2020 census, claiming certain methodological principles used to determine the population numbers are illegitimate, adding to the long-disputed practice of where incarcerated individuals and students living away from their homes should be counted. All of these issues will be addressed in any new census adjustments.

In terms of a recount, the Census Bureau would first look at the states, counties, and cities that have declared themselves as sanctuaries for illegal aliens. According to the Center for Immigration Studies organization, a dozen states — and localities in an additional 21 states, with Virginia, New Mexico, and New York having the most — declare themselves as sanctuary regions. These places will be most affected in a new census because the sanctuary declarations have drawn more such aliens.

The states with the largest projected numbers of non-citizens are California, Texas, Florida, and New York, but all states are affected. In the current census, the individuals in question are included in the state counts.

The census controversy began in the Obama Administration when the decision was made to move the citizenship question to the American Community Survey instead of the actual count. The Trump Administration eliminated the change, but the new Biden Administration reinstated it upon taking office in 2021 for purposes of conducting the 2020 census.

Once President Trump’s new order is implemented, thus adjusting the 2020 census numbers, new battles will begin.

The first issue will be whether to redistrict under the new numbers. This will likely take a Supreme Court order and would result from certain states suing others over the 2020 count.

The most likely scenario would be Idaho suing Minnesota. Idaho would claim that the counting of illegal aliens allowed Minnesota to keep its eighth seat, which is calculated to be the 435th congressional seat, and prevented Idaho from gaining a third seat. They would likely site Congress and the Census Bureau as the offending parties, thus forcing the issue directly to the Supreme Court.

A reapportionment order would have to be given for the new census methodology to be used for immediate redistricting. Otherwise, the changes would appear in the 2030 census.

Apportionment would also affect the electoral vote count for the 2028 presidential election because places like California, Illinois, and New York would clearly lose representation (California could lose as many as six seats, while Illinois and New York would lose at least two apiece) and states such as Florida, Idaho, North Carolina, and Texas (all would gain seats), for example, would significantly change the national electoral vote count used to elect a president.

Not having a new apportionment could lead to a presidential candidate challenging a state’s electoral vote number under the argument that the particular state has too many electoral votes because non-citizens remain in the count, thus creating a whole new controversy.

Additionally, where a new count would clearly reduce the number of Hispanic congressional seats, blacks would likely be the beneficiary of the new methodologies because in several states, California being the clearest example, black populations are discounted because of the addition of the non-citizens in and around certain neighborhoods and localities.

These are just a few of the action points that could develop once the Census Bureau begins the task of adjusting the 2020 final counts. Further ramifications would also undoubtedly rise to the surface, so the President’s directive yesterday will prove to be a major decision.

Sen. Marsha Blackburn for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Aug. 7, 2025

Governor

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

[/caption]As has been expected for months, Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) yesterday announced that she will enter her state’s open Governor’s race, and the political road appears clear for an easy victory. Incumbent Gov. Bill Lee (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Upon her election, Blackburn would become the 51st Governor and the first female chief executive in the Volunteer State’s long history. Tennessee became the nation’s 16th state, officially admitted to the Union in 1796.

She must first battle Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) who, at this point, is the only other official Republican gubernatorial primary entry. With her strong electoral record and being a fervent Trump supporter, it is hard to see a scenario where she fails to claim the nomination. With Democratic strength at its nadir in the state, it becomes challenging to see how she would have difficulty in the general election.

Only one Republican gubernatorial poll has been published of the race, and that came back in January when Sen. Blackburn began confirming she was considering running for Governor. The Fabrizio Lee & Associates firm released a survey (Jan. 13-16; 800 likely Tennessee Republican primary voters; live interview & text) and the results favored the Senator with a whopping 71-13 percent margin. The poll also found Sen. Blackburn scoring a clear 57 percent majority support figure in Rep. Rose’s 6th District.

Blackburn was originally elected to the Senate in 2018, defeating the state’s former two-term Governor, Phil Bredesen, in the general election by a 55-44 percent count. At the time, it appeared that Bredesen was in the strongest position of any Tennessee Democrat to win the Senate race, but then-Congresswoman Blackburn easily defeated him.

In November, Sen. Blackburn was re-elected in a landslide 64-34 percent victory over Nashville state Rep. Gloria Johnson in a political battle that was never close.

The Senator’s congressional career began with an open-seat victory in western Tennessee’s 7th District 23 years ago. Over her eight US House elections, Blackburn averaged 73.9 percent of the vote and fell below the 70 percent threshold only twice; she ran unopposed once in 2004. Prior to her service in Congress, Blackburn was elected to one four-year term in the Tennessee state Senate.

When talk of Sen. Blackburn running for Governor began, the Republican field was largely frozen, with only Rep. Rose stepping forward to challenge her for the party nomination. Candidate filing in Tennessee for the Aug. 6, 2026, primary ends on March 10, 2026, so much time remains for others to join the race and the situation could change. At this point, however, it appears most of the political jockeying will center around who might be appointed to fill the Senate seat after the new Governor is elected.

Should Sen. Blackburn be successful in her gubernatorial quest, she would be in position to appoint her successor. Since the Senator was just re-elected, the appointed Senator would serve until a special 2028 election would be held to fill the remaining balance of the term. This means the succeeding Senator would assume the office at some early point in 2027 and be eligible to run in the 2028 special election concurrent with the regular election schedule and calendar. The special election winner would then be eligible to seek a full six-year term in 2030.

Blackburn is now the third sitting Senator who has announced plans to enter an open 2026 race for Governor. She joins Sens. Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Tommy Tuberville (R-AL). Of the three, only Sen. Tuberville is risking his seat to enter the state’s gubernatorial campaign.

All three are favored to win their party’s nomination and claim the Governorship in the ’26 general election. Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) is also saying she is considering launching a gubernatorial bid.

Roundup: Senate, House, Governor

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 6, 2025

Senate

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) faces challenge to hold US Senate seat.

Louisiana — Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta announced that he will enter the US Senate Republican primary to challenge Sen. Bill Cassidy (R). At the end of 2024, State Treasurer John Fleming declared his primary challenge to Sen. Cassidy. So far, the opposition has yet to score many points against the Senator, an incumbent unlikely to receive President Trump’s support because he voted in favor of impeaching the President after the January 6 march on the Capitol.

House

CT-1 — Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin became the third Democrat to announce a primary challenge to veteran Connecticut Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford). Also in the race are Hartford School Board member Ruth Fortune and Southington Town Councilman Jack Perry. Clearly, however, Bronin will be the Congressman’s most formidable challenger. At the age of 77, with health issues and now a serious primary challenge, Rep. Larson is viewed as a top retirement prospect.

HI-1 — Rep. Ed Case (D-Kaneohe) has drawn a Democratic primary challenge from state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole (D-Kaneohe). Keohokalole also served in the state House and is an attorney. This race could become serious, but Hawaii voters rarely unseat an incumbent. Incidentally, neither man lives in the 1st District, which is anchored in Honolulu.

IL-7 — Veteran Rep. Danny Davis (D-Chicago) announced that he will not seek re-election next year, ending what will be a 30-year congressional career at the end of the current Congress. Davis was originally elected to the Chicago City Council in 1979 and then moved to the Cook County Commission in 1990 before winning his congressional seat in 1996. Over his long career, he averaged 85.9 percent of the vote in his 15 federal general elections and broke the 80 percent barrier each time. In his last two Democratic primaries, however, where multiple challengers competed, his renomination percentage dropped to 52.4 and 51.9 percent.

We can expect a crowded Democratic primary field to form vying to replace the 83-year-old Congressman. The eventual Democratic nominee becomes the prohibitive favorite in November of 2026 to hold the seat.

MI-10 — Action is beginning to happen in the very competitive open 10th Congressional District. Former two-term Rep. Mike Bishop (R) confirms he is considering entering the race. Mike Bouchard, Jr. (R), son of 26-year Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, Sr., is expected to announce his campaign when he returns from overseas deployment with the Army National Guard. Macomb County prosecutor Robert Lulgjuraj this week declared his candidacy for the GOP nomination.

Five Democrats, led by ex-Commerce Department official Eric Chung and Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, comprise the party’s candidate field. Incumbent Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) is running for Governor. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 49.5D – 47.9R partisan lean, one of the tightest in the nation. This race will be rated a toss-up all the way through the 2026 election.

MN-5 — Labor leader Latonya Reeves announced that she will wage a Democratic primary battle against controversial Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis). The Congresswoman quickly responded in announcing endorsements from Gov. Tim Walz, US Senators Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith, and Attorney General and previous 5th District Congressman Keith Ellison. Rep. Omar has won consecutive close primary elections against former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels, who is not returning for a third run.

NE-2 — State Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha) has released the results of his internal GBAO Strategies poll (July 21-23; 400 likely NE-2 Democratic primary voters; live interview & text), which find him leading his principal primary opponent, Douglas County District Court Clerk Crystal Rhoades by a 36-15 percent count with a name ID of 71 percent within the polling universe. Cavanaugh’s father, John Cavanaugh, III, represented the Omaha-anchored 2nd District for two terms in the late 1970s.

TX-18 — The Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston released the results of their just completed special congressional election survey (July 9-18; 2,300 Harris County registered voters; online & text) that unsurprisingly suggests the race will advance into a secondary runoff election.

Within the crowded field of 28 announced jungle election candidates, not all of whom will eventually qualify for the ballot, Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-statewide candidate Amanda Edwards (D) are leading all contenders with each posting a 19 percent preference factor. Former Miss Universe contestant and previous congressional candidate Carmen Maria Montiel and state Rep. Jolanda Jones (D-Houston) are tied for third place with 14 percent apiece. No other candidate receives double digit support. George Foreman IV, son of the late famous boxer, is running as an Independent and attracts four percent support.

Governor

California — Former Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has announced that she will not enter the open 2026 California Governor’s race. The move further drives political speculation that she will begin building another national campaign for the 2028 open presidential race. Harris was also elected as California’s Attorney General and to the US Senate before being tabbed as Joe Biden’s 2020 Vice Presidential running mate.

With Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) ineligible to seek a third term, an incredible 72 individuals, according to the Politics1 political blog, have already announced they will enter the 2026 statewide gubernatorial jungle primary. The prominent Democrats include Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego), ex-Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-Attorney General, and ex-US Congressman Xavier Becerra, ex-Congresswoman Katie Porter, along with former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. For the Republicans, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Fox News personality Steve Hilton lead the group of 24 declared contenders.

Georgia — Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) announced that she will not enter the open gubernatorial race next year. This likely leaves the GOP field to Attorney General Chris Carr, the first to announce his gubernatorial intentions, and Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who entered the campaign within the last month.

Rep. Greene not entering the race is a plus for Jones since they both come from the party’s right faction. The likely Democratic leader is former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Two-time Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams, however, has not ruled out entering the race.

New Jersey — A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll (July 17-23; 806 likely New Jersey gubernatorial election voters; live interview & text) again finds Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leading 2021 gubernatorial nominee and ex-Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R) by a 45-37 percent clip. Within the sampling universe, 35 percent said they would “definitely” vote for Sherrill while 25 percent said the same for Ciattarelli.

Since Ciattarelli has repeatedly under-polled his actual performance, the split between the two could be smaller. This race will be decided on Nov. 4.

South Carolina — The South Carolina Policy Council released a Targoz Market Research survey (July 21-25; 1,200 likely South Carolina voters; compensated respondents; online) that finds candidate and Congresswoman Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Attorney General Alan Wilson locked in a virtual dead heat for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.

According to the poll, Mace would lead Wilson 16-15 percent, with Lt. Gov. Paula Evette, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who formally announced this week, and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg) trailing with eight, six, and three percent support, respectively. The eventual Republican nominee will likely succeed Gov. Henry McMaster (R) who is ineligible to seek a third full term. McMaster will retire as the longest-serving Governor in South Carolina history.

Nancy Mace for Governor in SC

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 5, 2025

Governor

Two-term Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston).

As has been expected for months, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) yesterday officially entered the open South Carolina Governor’s campaign.

The June 2025 primary already has the makings of a Republican Battle Royal as at least five contenders will be competing for the party nomination to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R).

Rep. Mace will be facing four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale); Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette; Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who announced last week; and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg).

The personal battle rages between Mace and Wilson, which is likely to carry over into the campaign. Rep. Mace accuses AG Wilson of not being aggressive in his position and particularly so regarding her accusations against a former fiancé and several of his associates for alleged sexual-related offenses.

Rep. Mace claims Wilson has ignored the case. The AG explains that his office has no jurisdiction over individual cases and that the South Carolina Law Enforcement Division (SLED), which does have jurisdiction, is addressing the matter. The SLED spokesperson indicates that a large number of interviews have been conducted regarding the Mace complaints, and the investigation has not been completed. The Congresswoman’s former fiancé and his associates all vehemently deny any wrongdoing.

The personal battle between who most believe are the two leading candidates could prove a distraction in the gubernatorial nomination contest. Often, when two candidates begin to attack each other neither win, and another comes from the outside to snatch the election. It remains to be seen how this race unfolds, but we can certainly expect major campaign fireworks and a great deal of national political attention.

The South Carolina election format is unique in that the state maintains a two-week runoff election after the primary should no candidate receive majority support. With a well-funded and crowded field such as we will have in the race, the top two finishers advancing to the quick runoff is a virtual certainty.

The Palmetto State primary is scheduled for June 9, with the runoff, if necessary, calendared for June 23. The eventual Republican winner will become the prohibitive favorite to claim the Governorship in November of next year.

Rep. Mace’s decision to enter the Governor’s race will leave her 1st Congressional District open for the first time in a regular election cycle since 2010. The seat was open for a special election in 2013. Then-Rep. Tim Scott (R) was appointed to the US Senate that year, thus opening the 1st District. Former Governor and ex-1st District Congressman Mark Sanford (R) won the special election.

In 2018, however, Sanford was defeated for renomination, thus opening the seat in the general election. Democrat Joe Cunningham won the 2018 election and became the first Democrat to represent the district in 30 years. Two years later, Mace, then a state Representative, unseated Cunningham to return the seat to the GOP column.

In her two re-elections, Rep. Mace has averaged 57 percent of the vote, which is consistent with the Dave’s Redistricting App’s reported partisan lean. According to the DRA statisticians, SC-1 posts a 55.6R – 42.3D partisan lean, which is almost identical to the statewide partisan lean of 55.8R – 42.3D.

With Rep. Mace vacating the Charleston area anchored district, that brings to 24 the number of open House seats before the next election. Of the two dozen total, 13 are Republican-held versus 11 for the Democrats. Four of the seats (3D and 1R) will be filled in special elections before the end of the year, thus reducing the regular election open seat count to 20.

The 1st District begins almost at the Georgia border and then stretches northeast along the Atlantic Ocean to the city of Georgetown’s outskirts. The district includes the communities of Beaufort, Hilton Head, Mt. Pleasant, and Moncks Corner, along with James Island, Kiawah Island, Sullivan’s Island, and the Isle of Palms. The 1st CD contains Beaufort and Berkeley Counties, along with parts of Charleston, Colleton, Dorchester, and Jasper counties.

President Trump carried the district with a 56-43 percent margin over Kamala Harris in 2024, and defeated President Biden here, 53-45 percent in 2020.

Redistricting Sabre Rattling

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Aug. 4, 2025

Redistricting

A look at how things might play out in the redistricting tug of wars

Though we are only at the midpoint before beginning a process that traditionally happens only once a decade, we could soon see redistricting action happening in several locations.

With the redistricting bill on the floor of the Texas House of Representatives for debate as early as this afternoon, a map that could add several seats to the Lone Star State’s Republican delegation could pass into law. Reports suggest that enough Democrats have already bolted to Illinois in order to break the quorum and freeze the legislature from acting. It will be confirmed once the session begins. The Democrats will need a minimum 51 of their 62 House members to not attend in order break the two-thirds quorum rule.

The escape move has been tried over the years but merely prolongs the process because the Governor can simply call additional 30-day special sessions. At some point the members will return home. Therefore, in delaying the process, the stunt has probably increased chances for eventual final passage because Republicans will be more united.

Soon, the Ohio legislature will begin their own redistricting process in order to comply with state law. Under the Buckeye State redistricting procedure, any plan that does not pass the legislature with at least a three-fifths vote in each chamber, to assure bipartisan concurrence, can only be in effect for two election cycles. The 2021 congressional map passed with only majority support; therefore, it could stand for only the 2022 and 2024 elections. This means the state must put a new plan in place for the 2026 election and beyond.

In response to the occurring action, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) have both threatened that California could counter the Texas and Ohio action with their own redraw and urges other Democratic controlled states to do the same.

Setting the record straight, neither Texas nor Ohio is entering into a mid-decade redistricting merely for partisan purposes. The US Justice Department sent a letter to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Secretary of State Jane Nelson (R) informing them that some of the state’s congressional districts are illegal based upon a recent en banc US 5th Circuit Appellate Court ruling that affirmed a three judge federal panel’s initial decision.

Naturally, the Republicans will use the Texas and Ohio situations to improve their partisan standing, but is the Newsom-Padilla retaliation threat probable or even realistic? Chances are, no.

To even think about launching a mid-decade redistricting effort, a state realistically must have a trifecta, meaning one party controls both state legislative chambers and the Governor’s office. Under current state party division ratios, Republicans have 23 trifectas and Democrats’ 15.

Therefore, let’s look at where the Democrats could realistically counter the future Texas and Ohio maps with a more partisan congressional redistricting plan from their universe of 15 states.

In seven of these places, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, New Mexico, and Rhode Island, the Democrats already hold every congressional seat, so no new map could improve upon their current standing.

In three more states — Newsom and Padilla’s own California, Colorado — as well as New York, the legislature does not have the power to redraw districts. Citizens’ commissions were created through ballot proposition to handle redistricting.

In two more Democratic trifecta states, New Jersey and Washington, the redistricting process must begin before a specified commission of elected officials or those whom elected or political party officers appoint.

In the Commission states, the legislature and Governor would have to take action to eliminate the current structure in order to move forward on a new redistricting plan. In most instances, that would require a vote of the people since a ballot proposition is typically the way these panels came into existence.

In California’s case, the Governor has said he would ask the legislature to adopt an emergency measure so he could call a special election. The people would then have to reject their previous vote and eliminate the commission process thus returning redistricting power to the legislature and Governor. Only then could redistricting begin the way Newsom and Padilla are suggesting. Clearly, this would be time consuming and a tall order.

Looking at Colorado, the commission process has arguably performed as the best in the nation. Furthermore, the elimination steps would even be more difficult here because the state Supreme Court is a part of the official redistricting process. Not only would a proposition vote be needed to eliminate the citizens commission, it would also have to remove the state Supreme Court from having final approval power.

It is unrealistic that Gov. Jared Polis (D) would initiate such a move, especially when the various Colorado redistricting commissions experienced very little controversy during their initial cycle in 2021.

Thus, in only three of the Democratic controlled states, Illinois, Maryland, and Oregon, could the party leaders move forward with introducing new map legislation, but even in these places it would be a difficult call.

Many people believe that Illinois has already enacted the most gerrymandered map in the country, as Republicans are relegated to only three of 17 seats. Considering President Trump received 43.5 percent of the 2024 Illinois presidential vote, it is difficult to see how a new map could take even more seats from the Republicans when they only control 18 percent of the districts and none north of Peoria.

The Maryland and Oregon congressional maps only allow the Republicans one seat in each state, so like in Illinois, it is difficult to see how either place can produce a more Democratic map. In Maryland, President Trump received 34 percent of the vote, yet Republicans have just 12.5 percent of the congressional seats. The situation is similar in Oregon. In 2024, President Trump garnered 41 percent of the vote, but the GOP controls just 17 percent of the Beaver State congressional seats.

Even if California could redraw, they would find themselves in a similar situation to that of Illinois, Maryland, and Oregon. The Golden State has 52 congressional districts and Republicans hold only nine seats. President Trump received 38 percent of the 2024 vote, and the Republican challenger to Gov. Newsom in 2022, then-state Sen. Brian Dahle, attracted 41 percent support. Yet the GOP is relegated to only 17 percent of the seats.

Therefore, it is difficult to see how the Democrats could improve their allotment of congressional seats in these places without beginning to endanger some of their current incumbents who would be left with more competitive districts; hence, they would risk opening a political Pandora’s Box.

Certainly, the Texas Democrats’ action will prolong, but not necessarily end, the current redistricting situation. We await the principals’ next moves.

Redistricting:
New Texas Map Unveiled

Newly proposed Texas redistricting map
(Click here to see current CD interactive version: Texas)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 1, 2025

Redistricting

The new Texas proposed congressional map was unveiled Wednesday and, as President Trump predicted, the new draw could produce a net of at least four and possibly five more Republican seats in the 38-member delegation.

The redistricting process started, and Gov. Greg Abbott (R) added the issue to his special legislative session agenda, because the US Justice Department informed the Governor and Secretary of State that several of the state’s congressional districts are now illegal due to a recent en banc ruling from the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals on a Galveston County redistricting lawsuit.

The ruling paved the way for the state Republican map drawers to create more favorable political districts.

The legislative battleground will be in the state House of Representatives. There, the Republicans have an 88-62 majority, but Speaker Dustin Burrows (R-Lubbock) was elected via coalition as Democrats crossed over to support him. The action sent the Republican Caucus candidate down to defeat. The state Senate is even more Republican, 19R-11D, with one GOP vacancy.

Internal Texas legislative politics pertaining to partisanship, committee chairmanships, and the Speakership itself could all turn based upon how this redistricting issue unfolds over the next few days. The special legislative session began on July 21 and can last no longer than 30 days. The Governor, however, can call additional 30-day sessions if the issue call is not completed.

Several times in the past 20 years, Democratic members have left the state in order to break the chamber quorum and thus prevent legislative business from progressing. Texas is perhaps the only state where the legislature holds a two-thirds quorum requirement, so Democrats have enough to prevent the House from convening should at least 50 of their members not appear.

US House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is coming to Texas to speak to the House Democratic Caucus and convince them to do what is within their power to prevent the map, and its likely Republican seat gain, from being enacted into law.

To further complicate matters, the state has the power to arrest lawmakers who refuse to attend session and force them into the chamber, so the next few days will become interesting.

While the Democrats could temporarily freeze the House, their power is limited. Gov. Abbott could simply end the session and then call the members into a new 30-day special conclave if not enough members are present. He can stop and start special sessions at will. Additionally, at least five other issues, including flood relief for Central Texas, are also on the issue call, meaning more than redistricting must be addressed.

If the presented redistricting plan is enacted, several Democratic members will face tough political situations.

Beginning in Harris County, the map would create a new open eastern Houston area district that would be heavily Hispanic but favor Republicans based upon recent voter history. This would lead to Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) being paired with the winner of the TX-18 special election in a new Harris/Ft. Bend County 18th CD.

Moving to the Dallas area, freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) would find her district moved to east Texas, thereby likely forcing her into a paired incumbent situation with Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth). Veasey could also choose to run against Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas). Her new 30th District would venture into Tarrant County, which is part of Veasey’s home base.

In the Rio Grande Valley, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen), saw his 88 percent Hispanic Voting Age Population seat vote for President Trump (52-47 percent). Therefore, Gonzalez’s 34th District becomes 11 percentage points more Republican by moving out of Hidalgo County and then northward to Nueces County, annexing a portion of Corpus Christi city.

In Austin, Reps. Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) and Greg Casar (D-Austin) would find themselves paired in a new 37th District that would be fully contained within Travis County. The result of this draw would create a new open 35th District anchored in east San Antonio that appears politically marginal but is more likely to land in the Democratic column.

The removal of the Bexar County (San Antonio) portion from Rep. Henry Cuellar’s (D-Laredo) 28th District is likely welcome news for the veteran Congressman who is widely cast as the House’s most conservative Democratic member. Cuellar had not performed well in the San Antonio area, so this new map likely strengthens him.

More will be known about the districts when further data is calculated and released, but the current available statistics find just two districts, TX-19 (Rep. Jodey Arrington, R-Lubbock) and TX-23 (Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-San Antonio), untouched. Two districts (TX-9 and TX-35) would be new. Of the remaining 34 CDs, 19 would become more Republican to varying degrees and 15 would become more Democratic, again to varying degrees.

While this map would greatly help the Republicans hold the US House majority in the 2026 elections, it is not certain that such a plan will ultimately be enacted.