Author Archives: Jim Ellis

Nancy Mace for Governor in SC

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 5, 2025

Governor

Two-term Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston).

As has been expected for months, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) yesterday officially entered the open South Carolina Governor’s campaign.

The June 2025 primary already has the makings of a Republican Battle Royal as at least five contenders will be competing for the party nomination to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R).

Rep. Mace will be facing four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale); Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette; Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who announced last week; and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg).

The personal battle rages between Mace and Wilson, which is likely to carry over into the campaign. Rep. Mace accuses AG Wilson of not being aggressive in his position and particularly so regarding her accusations against a former fiancé and several of his associates for alleged sexual-related offenses.

Rep. Mace claims Wilson has ignored the case. The AG explains that his office has no jurisdiction over individual cases and that the South Carolina Law Enforcement Division (SLED), which does have jurisdiction, is addressing the matter. The SLED spokesperson indicates that a large number of interviews have been conducted regarding the Mace complaints, and the investigation has not been completed. The Congresswoman’s former fiancé and his associates all vehemently deny any wrongdoing.

The personal battle between who most believe are the two leading candidates could prove a distraction in the gubernatorial nomination contest. Often, when two candidates begin to attack each other neither win, and another comes from the outside to snatch the election. It remains to be seen how this race unfolds, but we can certainly expect major campaign fireworks and a great deal of national political attention.

The South Carolina election format is unique in that the state maintains a two-week runoff election after the primary should no candidate receive majority support. With a well-funded and crowded field such as we will have in the race, the top two finishers advancing to the quick runoff is a virtual certainty.

The Palmetto State primary is scheduled for June 9, with the runoff, if necessary, calendared for June 23. The eventual Republican winner will become the prohibitive favorite to claim the Governorship in November of next year.

Rep. Mace’s decision to enter the Governor’s race will leave her 1st Congressional District open for the first time in a regular election cycle since 2010. The seat was open for a special election in 2013. Then-Rep. Tim Scott (R) was appointed to the US Senate that year, thus opening the 1st District. Former Governor and ex-1st District Congressman Mark Sanford (R) won the special election.

In 2018, however, Sanford was defeated for renomination, thus opening the seat in the general election. Democrat Joe Cunningham won the 2018 election and became the first Democrat to represent the district in 30 years. Two years later, Mace, then a state Representative, unseated Cunningham to return the seat to the GOP column.

In her two re-elections, Rep. Mace has averaged 57 percent of the vote, which is consistent with the Dave’s Redistricting App’s reported partisan lean. According to the DRA statisticians, SC-1 posts a 55.6R – 42.3D partisan lean, which is almost identical to the statewide partisan lean of 55.8R – 42.3D.

With Rep. Mace vacating the Charleston area anchored district, that brings to 24 the number of open House seats before the next election. Of the two dozen total, 13 are Republican-held versus 11 for the Democrats. Four of the seats (3D and 1R) will be filled in special elections before the end of the year, thus reducing the regular election open seat count to 20.

The 1st District begins almost at the Georgia border and then stretches northeast along the Atlantic Ocean to the city of Georgetown’s outskirts. The district includes the communities of Beaufort, Hilton Head, Mt. Pleasant, and Moncks Corner, along with James Island, Kiawah Island, Sullivan’s Island, and the Isle of Palms. The 1st CD contains Beaufort and Berkeley Counties, along with parts of Charleston, Colleton, Dorchester, and Jasper counties.

President Trump carried the district with a 56-43 percent margin over Kamala Harris in 2024, and defeated President Biden here, 53-45 percent in 2020.

Redistricting Sabre Rattling

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Aug. 4, 2025

Redistricting

A look at how things might play out in the redistricting tug of wars

Though we are only at the midpoint before beginning a process that traditionally happens only once a decade, we could soon see redistricting action happening in several locations.

With the redistricting bill on the floor of the Texas House of Representatives for debate as early as this afternoon, a map that could add several seats to the Lone Star State’s Republican delegation could pass into law. Reports suggest that enough Democrats have already bolted to Illinois in order to break the quorum and freeze the legislature from acting. It will be confirmed once the session begins. The Democrats will need a minimum 51 of their 62 House members to not attend in order break the two-thirds quorum rule.

The escape move has been tried over the years but merely prolongs the process because the Governor can simply call additional 30-day special sessions. At some point the members will return home. Therefore, in delaying the process, the stunt has probably increased chances for eventual final passage because Republicans will be more united.

Soon, the Ohio legislature will begin their own redistricting process in order to comply with state law. Under the Buckeye State redistricting procedure, any plan that does not pass the legislature with at least a three-fifths vote in each chamber, to assure bipartisan concurrence, can only be in effect for two election cycles. The 2021 congressional map passed with only majority support; therefore, it could stand for only the 2022 and 2024 elections. This means the state must put a new plan in place for the 2026 election and beyond.

In response to the occurring action, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) have both threatened that California could counter the Texas and Ohio action with their own redraw and urges other Democratic controlled states to do the same.

Setting the record straight, neither Texas nor Ohio is entering into a mid-decade redistricting merely for partisan purposes. The US Justice Department sent a letter to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Secretary of State Jane Nelson (R) informing them that some of the state’s congressional districts are illegal based upon a recent en banc US 5th Circuit Appellate Court ruling that affirmed a three judge federal panel’s initial decision.

Naturally, the Republicans will use the Texas and Ohio situations to improve their partisan standing, but is the Newsom-Padilla retaliation threat probable or even realistic? Chances are, no.

To even think about launching a mid-decade redistricting effort, a state realistically must have a trifecta, meaning one party controls both state legislative chambers and the Governor’s office. Under current state party division ratios, Republicans have 23 trifectas and Democrats’ 15.

Therefore, let’s look at where the Democrats could realistically counter the future Texas and Ohio maps with a more partisan congressional redistricting plan from their universe of 15 states.

In seven of these places, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, New Mexico, and Rhode Island, the Democrats already hold every congressional seat, so no new map could improve upon their current standing.

In three more states — Newsom and Padilla’s own California, Colorado — as well as New York, the legislature does not have the power to redraw districts. Citizens’ commissions were created through ballot proposition to handle redistricting.

In two more Democratic trifecta states, New Jersey and Washington, the redistricting process must begin before a specified commission of elected officials or those whom elected or political party officers appoint.

In the Commission states, the legislature and Governor would have to take action to eliminate the current structure in order to move forward on a new redistricting plan. In most instances, that would require a vote of the people since a ballot proposition is typically the way these panels came into existence.

In California’s case, the Governor has said he would ask the legislature to adopt an emergency measure so he could call a special election. The people would then have to reject their previous vote and eliminate the commission process thus returning redistricting power to the legislature and Governor. Only then could redistricting begin the way Newsom and Padilla are suggesting. Clearly, this would be time consuming and a tall order.

Looking at Colorado, the commission process has arguably performed as the best in the nation. Furthermore, the elimination steps would even be more difficult here because the state Supreme Court is a part of the official redistricting process. Not only would a proposition vote be needed to eliminate the citizens commission, it would also have to remove the state Supreme Court from having final approval power.

It is unrealistic that Gov. Jared Polis (D) would initiate such a move, especially when the various Colorado redistricting commissions experienced very little controversy during their initial cycle in 2021.

Thus, in only three of the Democratic controlled states, Illinois, Maryland, and Oregon, could the party leaders move forward with introducing new map legislation, but even in these places it would be a difficult call.

Many people believe that Illinois has already enacted the most gerrymandered map in the country, as Republicans are relegated to only three of 17 seats. Considering President Trump received 43.5 percent of the 2024 Illinois presidential vote, it is difficult to see how a new map could take even more seats from the Republicans when they only control 18 percent of the districts and none north of Peoria.

The Maryland and Oregon congressional maps only allow the Republicans one seat in each state, so like in Illinois, it is difficult to see how either place can produce a more Democratic map. In Maryland, President Trump received 34 percent of the vote, yet Republicans have just 12.5 percent of the congressional seats. The situation is similar in Oregon. In 2024, President Trump garnered 41 percent of the vote, but the GOP controls just 17 percent of the Beaver State congressional seats.

Even if California could redraw, they would find themselves in a similar situation to that of Illinois, Maryland, and Oregon. The Golden State has 52 congressional districts and Republicans hold only nine seats. President Trump received 38 percent of the 2024 vote, and the Republican challenger to Gov. Newsom in 2022, then-state Sen. Brian Dahle, attracted 41 percent support. Yet the GOP is relegated to only 17 percent of the seats.

Therefore, it is difficult to see how the Democrats could improve their allotment of congressional seats in these places without beginning to endanger some of their current incumbents who would be left with more competitive districts; hence, they would risk opening a political Pandora’s Box.

Certainly, the Texas Democrats’ action will prolong, but not necessarily end, the current redistricting situation. We await the principals’ next moves.

Redistricting:
New Texas Map Unveiled

Newly proposed Texas redistricting map
(Click here to see current CD interactive version: Texas)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 1, 2025

Redistricting

The new Texas proposed congressional map was unveiled Wednesday and, as President Trump predicted, the new draw could produce a net of at least four and possibly five more Republican seats in the 38-member delegation.

The redistricting process started, and Gov. Greg Abbott (R) added the issue to his special legislative session agenda, because the US Justice Department informed the Governor and Secretary of State that several of the state’s congressional districts are now illegal due to a recent en banc ruling from the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals on a Galveston County redistricting lawsuit.

The ruling paved the way for the state Republican map drawers to create more favorable political districts.

The legislative battleground will be in the state House of Representatives. There, the Republicans have an 88-62 majority, but Speaker Dustin Burrows (R-Lubbock) was elected via coalition as Democrats crossed over to support him. The action sent the Republican Caucus candidate down to defeat. The state Senate is even more Republican, 19R-11D, with one GOP vacancy.

Internal Texas legislative politics pertaining to partisanship, committee chairmanships, and the Speakership itself could all turn based upon how this redistricting issue unfolds over the next few days. The special legislative session began on July 21 and can last no longer than 30 days. The Governor, however, can call additional 30-day sessions if the issue call is not completed.

Several times in the past 20 years, Democratic members have left the state in order to break the chamber quorum and thus prevent legislative business from progressing. Texas is perhaps the only state where the legislature holds a two-thirds quorum requirement, so Democrats have enough to prevent the House from convening should at least 50 of their members not appear.

US House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is coming to Texas to speak to the House Democratic Caucus and convince them to do what is within their power to prevent the map, and its likely Republican seat gain, from being enacted into law.

To further complicate matters, the state has the power to arrest lawmakers who refuse to attend session and force them into the chamber, so the next few days will become interesting.

While the Democrats could temporarily freeze the House, their power is limited. Gov. Abbott could simply end the session and then call the members into a new 30-day special conclave if not enough members are present. He can stop and start special sessions at will. Additionally, at least five other issues, including flood relief for Central Texas, are also on the issue call, meaning more than redistricting must be addressed.

If the presented redistricting plan is enacted, several Democratic members will face tough political situations.

Beginning in Harris County, the map would create a new open eastern Houston area district that would be heavily Hispanic but favor Republicans based upon recent voter history. This would lead to Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) being paired with the winner of the TX-18 special election in a new Harris/Ft. Bend County 18th CD.

Moving to the Dallas area, freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) would find her district moved to east Texas, thereby likely forcing her into a paired incumbent situation with Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth). Veasey could also choose to run against Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas). Her new 30th District would venture into Tarrant County, which is part of Veasey’s home base.

In the Rio Grande Valley, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen), saw his 88 percent Hispanic Voting Age Population seat vote for President Trump (52-47 percent). Therefore, Gonzalez’s 34th District becomes 11 percentage points more Republican by moving out of Hidalgo County and then northward to Nueces County, annexing a portion of Corpus Christi city.

In Austin, Reps. Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) and Greg Casar (D-Austin) would find themselves paired in a new 37th District that would be fully contained within Travis County. The result of this draw would create a new open 35th District anchored in east San Antonio that appears politically marginal but is more likely to land in the Democratic column.

The removal of the Bexar County (San Antonio) portion from Rep. Henry Cuellar’s (D-Laredo) 28th District is likely welcome news for the veteran Congressman who is widely cast as the House’s most conservative Democratic member. Cuellar had not performed well in the San Antonio area, so this new map likely strengthens him.

More will be known about the districts when further data is calculated and released, but the current available statistics find just two districts, TX-19 (Rep. Jodey Arrington, R-Lubbock) and TX-23 (Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-San Antonio), untouched. Two districts (TX-9 and TX-35) would be new. Of the remaining 34 CDs, 19 would become more Republican to varying degrees and 15 would become more Democratic, again to varying degrees.

While this map would greatly help the Republicans hold the US House majority in the 2026 elections, it is not certain that such a plan will ultimately be enacted.

Michigan’s 10th CD Could Become the Country’s Most Competitive Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 31, 2025

House

Michigan’s 10th Congressional District (Click on image or here to see full-size Michigan state map.)

Action is occurring in one of the few House open seats that promises to transform into a very expensive and highly competitive 2026 campaign.

Former Congressman Mike Bishop (R), who held Michigan’s former 8th District for two terms before losing to Elissa Slotkin (D) in 2018, this week made positive comments about possibly making a comeback bid in the state’s current 10th District next year. The seat will be open because two-term incumbent John James (R-Farmington Hills) is running for Governor.

The son of another prominent Oakland County office holder, Mike Bouchard Jr., is expected to announce his congressional run when he returns from an overseas assignment with the Army National Guard later this year. Mike Bouchard Sr. is the Oakland County Sheriff who was first elected in 1999 after serving nine years in the Michigan House and Senate and running unsuccessfully for both Governor and the US Senate.

Prominent Republicans have, heretofore, been slow to come forward in this district, while a number of Democrats declared much earlier. The top Democrats in the race are former US Commerce Department official Eric Chung, Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, Army Reserve Officer and ex-congressional aide Alex Hawkins, and 2024 Macomb County Prosecutor nominee Christina Hines.

The 10th District, created as a new open seat in the 2021 redistricting plan, lies to the northeast of Detroit and contains three-quarters of Macomb County and less than 10 percent of Oakland County. The district includes the Warren, Sterling Heights, and Rochester Hills communities.

Rep. James has won two close US House elections against the same Democratic opponent, former Macomb County Judge and ex-County Prosecutor Carl Marlinga.

In 2022, the district yielded one of the tightest finishes in the congressional election cycle, a 48.8 – 48.3 percent James victory margin. In November, the incumbent won re-election with a more substantial 51.1 – 45.0 percent spread. The latter result was similar to President Trump’s 2024 performance in the 10th District. He defeated Kamala Harris 52.2 – 45.7 percent.

Both President Trump and Rep. James outperformed the Dave’s Redistricting App’s partisan lean, which is calculated at 49.5D – 47.9R, which is one of the closest ratios in the country. The eventual Republican nominee will be forced to perform in a likewise manner if the party is to hold the seat in 2026.

The 2024 congressional race featured a large amount of outside spending largely because Marlinga was unable to prove himself as a strong fundraiser. According to the Open Secrets.com data site, the MI-10 race drew more than $17 million in outside spending, approximately $10.1 million of which was spent to aid Marlinga. The district ranked 25th in the nation in terms of attracting outside resources and it is likely that more will come into the open seat race for 2026.

Looking at the total candidate expenditures, Rep. James raised and spent more than $9.4 million as compared to Marlinga’s $2.9 million. The outside spending made the aggregate $13.2 million for Marlinga as compared to Rep. James’ $16.3 million. Expect all of these numbers to rise for the 2026 open campaign.

Currently, 22 seats will be open for the next election, but only two appear to be highly competitive for the 2026 general election. MI-10 and NE-2 — the latter seat opening due to incumbent Nebraska US Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) retiring — at this point will attract the most political attention and outside resources in the open seat category.

With Republicans defending both seats, each will have a major role in determining which party controls the House when the 120th Congress begins in January of 2027.

Norman Announces for South
Carolina Governor; Mace to Follow?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Governor

South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill)

South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), as expected, announced his gubernatorial candidacy over the weekend. Norman becomes the fourth official Republican gubernatorial candidate who will compete in the campaign to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R), and others may soon follow.

Immediately upon hearing of the Norman announcement, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) released a statement indicating that she will decide upon her political future “in the next couple of days.”

The Norman declaration opens his 5th Congressional District, which is considered safely Republican (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 58.4R – 39.8D). Just to the southwest the Norman district, Georgia Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) also formally announced his statewide bid thus leaving open his safely Republican 10th District seat for a US Senate run.

Reps. Norman and Collins joining the list of those leaving, or have left, the House means that 22 seats will be open before the next election, including four that are vacant and will be filled in special election cycles. Of the 22, Republicans currently hold 12 seats and Democrats’ ten, but few open contests will be competitive in the next general election.

In the Palmetto State’s Republican gubernatorial primary race to date are four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of veteran Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale/West Columbia), Lt. Gov. Paula Evette, and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Boiling Springs), along with Rep. Norman. State Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins) and attorney Mullins McLeod have announced for the Democratic nomination.

Ralph Norman was first elected to the US House in a 2017 special election and since the regular 2018 election has had little trouble holding his seat. Prior to serving in Congress, Norman was elected to six non-consecutive terms in the South Carolina House of Representatives.

The 5th District sits in the northern part of South Carolina and borders the Charlotte, North Carolina metropolitan area. The seat is anchored in York County with a population of just under 300,000. Rock Hill is the county’s largest city.

The 5th also contains Cherokee, Chester, Fairfield, Kershaw, Lancaster, and Union counties, along with parts of Spartanburg and Sumter counties. In 2024, President Trump carried the district with a 60.7 – 37.9 percent victory spread over Kamala Harris. In 2020, Trump defeated President Biden here, 58.4 – 40.2 percent.

A crowded 5th District Republican primary is expected to form, but the only name circulating at this early point is state Sen. Wes Climer (R-Rock Hill). Democratic attorney Alex Harper, who appears as a credible candidate, announced for the party nomination well before Rep. Norman declared his gubernatorial intentions.

Should Rep. Mace follow suit and enter the Governor’s campaign, we can expect a very spirited statewide GOP primary among at least five candidates with the potential of others joining. Former Governor and ex-Congressman Mark Sanford earlier made comments indicating that he is considering entering the race, but little has been said lately. State Senate Majority Leader Shane Massey (R-Edgefield/Aiken) is another potential candidate.

If Rep. Mace leaves the 1st District, we can expect nomination battles for what will be an open Charleston-anchored CD in both parties. The 1st is somewhat more competitive than Rep. Norman’s 5th CD (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 55.6R – 42.3D), but the eventual Republican nominee will clearly be favored. Still, in a US House with a slim Republican majority and chamber control again on the line in 2026, an open district such as SC-1 will be in competitive mode next year.

Of the four vacant seats in the House, we will see special general or initial jungle elections held on Sept. 9 (VA-11), Sept. 23 (AZ-7), and Nov. 4 (TX-18).

Now that Tennessee Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) has officially left the House, Gov. Bill Lee (R) has set the election calendar. The special party primary date will be October 7th, with a special general election tabbed for Dec. 2. The eventual winner will fill the balance of the current term.

Democrats are heavy favorites to win the Arizona, Texas, and Virginia seats, while the eventual Republican nominee will have the advantage toward holding the TN-7 vacancy. The eventual GOP nominee in the South Carolina Governor’s race will also become a heavy favorite once the June 9 primary and June 23 runoff election, if necessary, are completed.

Wisconsin Shake Up

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 29, 2025

Governor

Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D)

On Friday, Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) surprisingly announced that he will not seek a third term next year, which has initiated a game of Badger State political musical chairs.

Previously, most observers believed that Gov. Evers would run and comments he made leading to the decision were clearly giving the impression that he wanted to call himself, “Three-Term Tony.” Gov. Evers would turn 75 years old at the next election, and he is already the second-oldest Governor in Wisconsin history. Therefore, longevity and quality of retirement life could have factored into his decision.

Immediately, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez (D) said she would run to succeed Gov. Evers and Sen. Ron Johnson (R) made a statement saying he will not enter an open gubernatorial race. Rodriguez, however, can expect to compete in a crowded Aug. 11 Democratic primary before someone advances into the general election.

Two-term Attorney General Josh Kaul (D) has long been considered a gubernatorial prospect. Several state legislators and county and city officials, particularly from Milwaukee, are also expressing interest. So has former Lieutenant Governor and 2022 US Senate candidate Mandela Barnes.

In the congressional delegation, we see little early movement toward what is now an open Governor’s race. Democrats hold only two US House seats, those of Reps. Mark Pocan (D-Town of Vermont/Madison) and Gwen Moore (D-Milwaukee), but neither have given any early indications about running for Governor.

On the Republican side, Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) has been publicly considering launching a challenge to Gov. Evers, so the open seat may be a greater enticement for him to enter the statewide race.

Since it is now highly unlikely the Wisconsin congressional districts will be redrawn before the 2026 election, most of the six House Republicans are in strong political position. The one key exception is Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) who will again face a well-funded opponent, likely 2024 Democratic nominee Rebecca Cooke, in a politically marginal district.

Rep. Van Orden defeated Ms. Cooke 51-49 percent in 2024. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians rate the WI-3 seat as one of the most evenly divided districts in the nation with a 48.9D – 48.5R partisan lean. President Trump, however, carried the district in all three of his elections and scoring a 53-45 percent victory here in November. Prior to Van Orden converting the seat to the Republican column in 2022, however, Democratic former Rep. Ron Kind held the seat for 26 years.

Cooke also became the top Democratic congressional challenger fundraiser during the 2nd Quarter, and she has already amassed a war chest of $1.27 million. Rep. Van Orden showed a campaign account balance of $1.67 million at the June 30 candidate financial disclosure quarterly deadline.

Considering that the Republican nomination field could be wide open and ooking at a difficult re-election race ahead, it would not be surprising to see Rep. Van Orden at least consider a run for Governor.

Nationally, there are 38 gubernatorial elections in the 2025-26 election cycle, with two coming this year in New Jersey and Virginia. Of the 38, the Evers retirement decision moves the open race count to 18, mostly due to term limits. Overall, both parties risk 19 gubernatorial positions in the next election.

Expect a great deal of post-announcement jockeying to come forth in Wisconsin as the political players continue to digest Gov. Evers’ surprise retirement decision.

Cooper v. Whatley in North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 28, 2025

Senate

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D)

While major potential North Carolina US Senate candidates in both parties had been keeping their leaders at bay for several months about whether they would enter the open contest, we now see evolving what is likely to be the state’s general election pairing.

Late last week, a report was published indicating that former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) had informed his party leaders that he will run for the Senate and is expected to make a formal declaration of candidacy this week.

Presidential daughter-in-law Lara Trump, who previously said she would decide about entering the Senate race “before Thanksgiving,” announced Thursday that she would not run, and immediately Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley declared his own candidacy. Just as fast, President Trump issued an endorsement for Whatley.

Thus, within this short period after long being in suspension, it appears we already have our general election pairing for one of the most important and competitive of the 2026 Senate campaigns.

For the Democrats, one potential obstacle remains. Former Rep. Wiley Nickel (D) had declared his Senate candidacy as he announced in 2023 that he would not seek a second term in the House because of what he termed an adverse redistricting map. Later, Nickel said he would step aside if Cooper decided to run but has not recently reiterated such comments. Therefore, it remains to be seen if Nickel remains in the Senate race.

The 2026 Senate race promises to be close, as are most statewide races in North Carolina. From the 2016 election through 2024, a total of 36 statewide campaigns were conducted from President to Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Republican candidates won 23 of those elections and Democrats’ 13, and two of the latter were Cooper’s close victories for Governor. Calculating the mean average for the 36 campaigns, the Republican candidates attracted 50.4 percent of the vote, while Democratic candidates recorded 48.3 percent.

Cooper won six Tar Heel State campaigns, four as Attorney General (2000 through 2012) and two for Governor. In his pair of chief executive contests, 2016 and 2020, Cooper averaged 50.2 percent. In 2016, he won with 49 percent of the vote unseating then-Gov. Pat McCrory (R), and four years later secured re-election against then-Lt. Gov. Dan Forest (R) with a 51.5 percent tally.

Michael Whatley, an attorney, was appointed RNC chairman after President Trump’s renomination in 2024. Previously, he served as chair of the North Carolina Republican Party and as a chief of staff to then-Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) among other political positions. It had been presumed that Whatley would enter the open Senate race after incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R) announced that he would not seek a third term. That is, presuming Ms. Trump would ultimately decide against running.

While prognosticators are giving Cooper at least a slight early edge, which is reasonable considering the Democrat has won six statewide races and the Republican has never been on the ballot, the overall statistics over the previous eight-year period as shown above, provide the Republicans with a slight cushion.

One thing is for certain: the impending Senate race will be the most expensive in North Carolina electoral history. In 2022, then-Rep. Ted Budd (R) defeated former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D) in an open contest even though he was outspent $39 million to $16 million when comparing the two candidates’ campaign committee reports.

Outside spending, however, allowed Budd to close the gap. Republican outside group allies poured in just over $75 million into the campaign as compared to Democratic allies spending $30 million. Expect all of these financial numbers to be eclipsed in 2026.

This race is now officially on, and we can routinely expect a great deal of national attention being directed toward the Tar Heel State over the next 15 months.

Two Major Senate Questions
Answered: Michigan, North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 25, 2025

Michigan

Michigan Republicans have caught a break.

Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) / Photo by Daigas Mieriņas vizīte ASV

Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) who had been testing the waters for an open Senate bid, announced that he will not enter the statewide race and is likely to seek re-election in his 4th Congressional District.

Republican leaders had been striving to clear the Senate nomination field for former Representative and 2024 Senate nominee Mike Rogers who came within 19,006 votes (three-tenths of one percentage point) of scoring an upset win last November, and now it appears their goal has been achieved.

In the 2024 race, Rogers proved a weaker early fundraiser and never reached resource parity with his Democratic opposition. While eventual winner Elissa Slotkin outspent Rogers $51 million to $12 million, outside organizations somewhat closed the deficit gap with $78 million coming into the state to aid Rogers while Slotkin supporters spent $65 million.

After the 2nd Quarter filing for the 2026 campaign, the three major Democratic candidates’ (US Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed) recorded an aggregate $6.7 million in campaign receipts compared to Mr. Rogers’ $1.1 million.

Therefore, considering the continuing financial disparity among the Michigan Democrats and Republicans, Rep. Huizenga deciding not to pursue a challenge to Rogers for the party’s Senate nomination is an even greater help to the GOP team since they won’t have to issue major expenditures during the primary cycle.

Another advantage Rogers will have as a consensus candidate, in addition to being able to pool his lesser resources for just one campaign, is having until Aug. 4, 2026, to draw largely unencumbered contrasts with the Democrats who will be battling among themselves for their own party nomination.

The unfolding candidate developments again underscore that the open Michigan Senate race will become one of the premier national Senate races next year.

North Carolina

North Carolina Democrats also have caught a break.

According to a report from Axios News, former Gov. Roy Cooper is communicating to North Carolina Democratic Party leaders that he will enter the state’s open Senate race and formally declare his intention as early as next week.

Cooper, who was elected four times as North Carolina’s Attorney General and then twice as Governor, was clearly the party’s first choice to run for the Senate and even more so after incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R) announced that he would not seek a third term.

The Senate move also suggests that Cooper will not launch a presidential campaign in 2027. This becomes particularly good news for Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D), who is clearly moving along the presidential track and thus foregoing a bid for his own state’s open Senate seat. Several more Governors, or recently replaced state chief executives, are also contemplating between running for Senate and President, and it is thought that most will enter the national race.

The real advantage to a potential Beshear presidential campaign is now having the clear opportunity of uniting the southern states in a fight for the party nomination, thus becoming a very strong regional candidate. This strategy would not have worked had Cooper joined the race also operating from a southern base.

If the above presidential scenario plays out as depicted, it would also provide a boost to the Kentucky GOP. Beshear heading to the national campaign means the state’s open Senate race will now almost assuredly remain in GOP hands since the Governor was realistically the only Kentucky Democrat who could put the open Senate campaign into play.

Now the North Carolina focus turns to Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley; with presidential daughter-in-law Lara Trump stepping aside. Ms. Trump said during the week that she would decide whether to return to her home state to run for the Senate by Thanksgiving, but the Cooper decision to enter the Senate race earlier than expected, along with the state’s voter registration deadline, shortened the GOP announcement timeline. Yesterday, Whatley announced he would run; had Ms. Trump decided to run, she would have, like ex-Gov. Cooper on the Democratic side, a clear run for the party nomination. That, however, is now moot. Ms. Trump posted on X that “After much consideration and heartfelt discussions with my family, friends, and supporters, I have decided not to pursue the United States Senate seat in North Carolina at this time. I am deeply grateful for the encouragement and support I have received from the people of my home state whom I love so much.”

North Carolina always features close races, and a 2026 US Senate race even with ex-Gov. Cooper leading the Democratic ticket will prove highly competitive.

While Cooper was an overwhelming favorite to win re-election as Governor in 2020, he ended with only 51 percent of the vote in clinching the second term. This means his average gubernatorial vote in his two elections was exactly 50 percent. In his three contested terms for Attorney General (2004, 2008, 2012), Cooper averaged a 56 percent support factor. In the 2016 election, Cooper ran unopposed for election to a fourth consecutive term.

Rep. Collins Expected to Enter
Georgia Senate Race Later This Month

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 24, 2025

Senate

Georgia Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson)

Reports are surfacing from Georgia that two-term US Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) will announce a US Senate bid before the end of July.

Should Rep. Collins follow through and enter the race, he will join US Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), state Agriculture Commissioner John King, and state Sen. Colton Moore (R-Trenton) as prominent candidates in the GOP primary. The eventual Republican nominee will challenge first-term incumbent Jon Ossoff (D).

According to the latest Federal Election Commission candidate financial disclosure report for the period ending June 30, 2025, Rep. Collins would have just over $1 million to transfer into a Senate race. Rep. Carter is considerably ahead on the money front, reporting a cash-on-hand figure of just over $4 million after raising slightly under $3.6 million for the 2026 election cycle. Commissioner King disclosed only $450,405 in his federal campaign account. State Sen. Moore has yet to file a committee statement with the FEC and is unlikely to become a top-tier contender.

Should the Republican field remain constant, it appears the race could narrow significantly to a battle between the two Congressmen. For his part, Sen. Ossoff, obviously considered highly vulnerable in 2026, leads the nation in fundraising with a whopping $41.97 million since he was originally elected in 2020.

During his term, however, Sen. Ossoff has spent over $30.8 million leaving a reported cash-on-hand figure a touch under $15.5 million. Clearly, the Senator will be financially well-heeled in what could become the most competitive 2026 national Senate race.

In 2020, Ossoff upset then-Sen. David Perdue (R) in a post-general election runoff, from the same November election where Joe Biden was edging President Trump by 11,779 votes statewide. Georgia is one of two states that has a general election run-off law, meaning the top two finishing candidates would advance into a post-election December secondary vote should the first place finisher fail to attract majority support.

Such a scenario occurred five years ago, with Sen. Perdue finishing first in the general election, but who fell 13,471 votes short of securing a majority that would have clinched his re-election. The percentage total for the general election found Sen. Perdue topping Ossoff, 49.7 – 47.9 percent. In the runoff, fortunes turned as Ossoff pushed ahead at the December finish line, 50.6 – 49.4 percent, a margin of 54,944 votes from more than 4.48 million ballots cast.

In 2024, Trump scored a Georgia rebound, topping Kamala Harris, 50.7 – 48.5 percent. Two years earlier in the 2022 midterm election, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) topped former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D), 53-46 percent, and Republicans won eight of nine Georgia statewide races.

This most recent Peach State voting history creates optimism among the 2026 Republican candidates, thus making the Georgia Senate race the campaign likely to attract the most national political attention and possibly the most combined outside independent expenditure dollars.

The Georgia election system could yield a Republican Senate nomination also advancing into a secondary election. The Georgia primary is scheduled for May 19, 2026, with a runoff, if necessary because the first place finisher does not command majority support, to be scheduled for a Tuesday in June, likely the 16th or 23rd.

Others could still join the GOP race, but as the cycle unfolds and the fundraising leaders continue to pad their accounts further entries become more unlikely. Still said to be considering the race is Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, among others, but it appears more likely at this point in time that the Secretary will either seek re-election for a third term or run for the open Governor’s position.

In terms of the two House seats that Reps. Carter and presumably Collins will vacate, we can expect crowded Republican primary battles to form in the respective 1st and 10th Districts likely ending in tight results.

Both seats are safely Republican according to the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculations (GA:1 – 57.3R – 41.1D; GA-10 – 61.2R – 37.2D). In 2024, President Trump captured 57.6 percent in GA-1, and 60.1 percent in GA-10.

Even at this early date, the Georgia voting electorate will again be bombarded with very competitive 2026 campaign efforts over what promises to be a busy ballot from top to bottom.

Republicans May Have Challenger in WA-3 to Flip Seat From Incumbent Dem

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 23, 2025

House

Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) has repeatedly confounded Republicans. She has twice won a southwestern Washington congressional district that is arguably the second-most Republican seat in the country that elects a Democrat to the US House, behind only Rep. Jared Golden’s 2nd District of Maine.

Washington Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R-Centralia)

It appears, however, that the Republicans may have found a stronger candidate for 2026. In the past two elections, Perez has defeated Army veteran Joe Kent (R) who proved himself too extreme for the district’s electorate. Though he is not yet completely confirming that he will be a candidate, most believe that state Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R-Centralia) will formally announce his congressional candidacy sometime this week.

If the Republicans are to hold their slim majority, converting Washington’s 3rd District becomes a must-win. Before Rep. Perez recorded her initial upset victory in 2022, the seat had been under Republican control since the 2010 election.

The Dave’s Redistricting App organization calculates a 52.0R – 46.4D partisan lean. It is one of 13 districts that voted for President Trump in 2024 but reverted to electing or re-electing a Democratic nominee for the House.

Rep. Perez, then a local automotive business owner along with her husband, upset Kent in 2022 with a 50.1 – 49.3 percent victory. This, after six-term incumbent Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler failed to qualify for the general election from the state’s jungle primary. Two years later, despite President Trump carrying the district over Kamala Harris with a 50-47 percent margin, Rep. Perez won re-election, again opposite Kent, with a 52-48 percent spread.

Washington’s 3rd District lies in the southwestern corner of the state and is anchored in the city of Vancouver in Clark County, which lies directly across the Columbia River from Portland, Oregon. In addition to housing all of Clark County, the 3rd encompasses Cowlitz, Lewis, Pacific, and Skamania counties, with part of Thurston. The population is predominantly white, but with a Hispanic Voting Age Population figure of just about nine percent. Hispanics constitute the district’s largest minority group.

John Braun was initially elected to Washington’s state Senate in 2012 and has run unopposed in the next three succeeding campaigns. He was chosen Minority Leader after the 2020 election. Should he make the final decision to run for Congress, Braun would not have to risk his state Senate seat since the 2026 election is the mid-term of his four-year tenure.

Prior to the 2024 election, most political prognosticators were predicting that the Democrats would assume control of the House. The reason Republicans held was due to converting several seats from the Democrats, namely through the new North Carolina redistricting map that yielded three flips, another two in eastern Pennsylvania, and one each in Alaska, Colorado, and an open seat in Michigan. Winning these seats mitigated Republican losses in California, Louisiana, New York, and Oregon.

A similar pattern will have to appear again in 2026 if the GOP is to hold their slim majority. With few conversion opportunities apparent for either party during the early part of this election cycle, the GOP converting the WA-3 seat becomes a paramount district in their plan to hold and potentially expand the current majority.