Author Archives: Jim Ellis

Paxton Enters Senate Race in Texas; Nickel Does Same in North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 11, 2025

Texas

Ken Paxton / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton announced earlier this week, on Fox News’ Monday night’s Ingraham Angle, that he will challenge Sen. John Cornyn in next year’s Republican primary.

The move had been expected, but the wild card in the race appears to be US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). The Congressman is reportedly going to disclose raising $1.5 million in first quarter 2025 on his Federal Election Commission filing that is due April 15.

A Super PAC has spent seven figures on positive biography ads about Rep. Hunt throughout the state except for his hometown of Houston. All of this suggests he is planning to enter the Senate race, thus forcing a three-way major candidate contest.

The Cornyn campaign quickly responded to the Paxton announcement on social media saying, “Ken Paxton is a fraud. He talks tough on crime and then lets crooked progressive Lina Hidalgo off the hook. He says his impeachment trial was a sham but he didn’t contest the facts in legal filings, which will cost the state millions. He says he’s anti-woke but he funnels millions of taxpayer dollars to lawyers who celebrate DEI. And Ken claims to be a man of faith but uses fake Uber accounts to meet his girlfriend and deceive his family.”

Paxton attacks Sen. Cornyn as not being a strong supporter of President Donald Trump, and retaliated in his Fox News interview saying, “it’s time that we have another great Senator that will actually stand up and fight for Republican values, fight for the values of the people of Texas and also support Donald Trump in the areas that he’s focused on in a very significant way.”

Interestingly, should Hunt enter the race, he could indirectly help Cornyn. Since he and Paxton would likely draw from the same conservative rural constituencies that represent the heart of Texas’ Trump Country, a large portion of the anti-Cornyn vote would be split. Sen. Cornyn does well in the metro areas during the GOP primaries, so opponents dividing the anti-incumbent vote would at least guarantee him a runoff position.

The Texas primary will likely be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff election targeted for May 26 if no candidate receives majority support.

North Carolina

Former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D)

There was also action in the North Carolina Senate campaign. Former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D), who did not seek re-election in November because of an adverse 2023 redistricting plan, announced that he will run for the Senate.

This is an interesting move because Nickel originally said that he would only run if former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) decided not to mount a Senate campaign. Cooper is finishing a fellowship at Harvard University and said he would make a decision about the Senate race when he completes the program.

When asked about Cooper potentially entering the Senate contest, Nickel now says he will “cross that bridge when I come to it.” Initially, he said he would step aside if Cooper decided to become a candidate. In reality, the former one-term Raleigh area Congressman may have inside information that the former Governor will not run for the Senate, hence his decision to announce his own campaign earlier than originally planned.

The developments could also be a signal that Cooper may be looking more seriously at the presidential race. If so, he would be unlikely to run for Senate in 2026 if he is planning to launch a national campaign in the 2028 open presidential cycle.

In any event, the eventual Democratic Senate nominee will challenge two-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R) in what will again be a highly competitive 2026 general election. The North Carolina race promises to be one of the top national US Senate campaigns of the current election cycle.

Sununu Out; James In

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 10, 2025

New Hampshire

Former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R)

Saying he believes the Republicans have a strong chance to win the open New Hampshire US Senate seat in 2026, former Gov. Chris Sununu (R) put an end to the public speculation that he may become a candidate.Sununu said it is not the right time for him to run for the Senate, which is consistent with his action when Republican leaders previously approached him about launching a Senate campaign.

Former Massachusetts US Sen. Scott Brown (R), who moved to New Hampshire after he was defeated for re-election in 2012, challenged Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) two years later. The three-term incumbent, who has already announced her retirement when the current Congress adjourns, defeated Brown, 51-48 percent. It is apparent that the former Massachusetts Senator is intent on running again.

Frank Edelblut, Commissioner of the New Hampshire Department of Education, is also a potential candidate. Then-Gov. Sununu originally appointed him to his current position and the new Governor, former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R), kept him in place. Ex-White House aide and two-time congressional candidate Matt Mowers is another Republican potential candidate. For now, however, it appears that former Sen. Brown is the front-runner for the party nomination.

Late last week, four-term US Rep. Chris Pappas of Manchester announced his intention to run and appears as the clear front-runner for his party’s nomination. He has a strong chance of becoming a consensus Democratic candidate.

It was obvious that recruiting former Gov. Sununu would give the Republicans their best chance of converting this Senate seat. It remains to be seen how competitive the Republicans can be against Rep. Pappas, but sans Sununu, the Democrats regain the early advantage.

Michigan

Michigan Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills)

The anticipated hot open Michigan Governor’s campaign came into better focus.

As expected, two-term US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) announced that he will enter the Governor’s race, striving to succeed term-limited incumbent Gretchen Whitmer (D).

James has twice run statewide. In 2018, he challenged US Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) and then ran again two years later opposite Sen. Gary Peters (D). James drew national attention in holding Sen. Stabenow to a tighter than expected 52-46 percent margin spread. In 2020, the political battle ended in even closer fashion, 50-48 percent, in Sen. Peters’ favor.

Redistricting in the following year created an open US House seat in his home area. James would win a half-point 2022 victory over former local judge and prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D), and then scored a six-point re-election victory this past November against the same opponent.

The 2026 Michigan Governor’s race will likely be unique among all statewide elections in that it has the chance of becoming a legitimate three-way contest.

On the Republican side, many cast Rep. James as the early front-runner for the party nomination even with polling showing a close contest between he and 2022 gubernatorial Republican nominee Tudor Dixon. It is not clear, however, if she will again run for Governor. Former Attorney General Mike Cox is also taking steps to organize a gubernatorial campaign along with state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Paw Paw).

The Democrats also have nomination competition. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is an announced candidate, and polling posts her to an early lead. Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist recently entered the race, as did Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson.

The third contender, and one who will advance directly into the general election because he is running as an Independent, is three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan. The municipal chief executive was first elected in 2013 and subsequently re-elected in 2017 and 2021. It was a surprise when he entered the race, not because he became a statewide candidate but for declaring as an Independent. Previously, he had run as a Democrat.

With Duggan having an obvious political base in Detroit, the state’s largest city, a potential Benson-James-Duggan race is set to become the wild card race of the 2026 national election cycle.

Virginia Governor’s Election Set

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 9, 2025

Governor

Though Virginia’s June primary is still two months away, the general election has unofficially already begun.

The nominees for Governor are already effectively set because the state’s signature petition deadline expired on April 3, and the Secretary of the Commonwealth has indicated that just two individuals, one in each party, have qualified.

Expected to conquer the candidate fields from their respective primaries at the outset, former Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears cemented their status as party standard bearers through the mandatory signature petition process.

Virginia requires candidates for statewide office to gather at least 10,000 valid registered voter signatures to qualify for the ballot. At least 400 must come from each of the state’s 11 congressional districts. Therefore, it takes a viable statewide grassroots organization to complete the requirements, and many candidates, including some running for President, have failed to complete this important step.

One reason for the unusually difficult ballot qualification requirements dates back to Virginia’s political history. The state has traditionally nominated candidates through party conventions as opposed to direct primary elections.

Therefore, as an incentive to continue the convention system, the ballot petition process became a deterrent to holding party primaries. Democrats began breaking away from conventions earlier, while Republicans have only routinely opted for statewide primaries in the last two election cycles.

Two potential candidates who failed to qualify this year are former state Sen. Amanda Chase and ex-state Delegate David LaRock, both Republicans. They each entered the GOP primary to run to the right of Earle-Sears but announced their candidacies and began the petition gathering process only a month before the signature deadline.

Though both were talking as if they were prepared to give the Lieutenant Governor a major challenge, it was evident from the outset that their chances of meeting the petition deadline were slim at best. Therefore, it was with little surprise that neither Chase nor LaRock secured a primary ballot line.

The odd-numbered election years have furthermore made the Old Dominion a virtual contrarian bellwether in that the electorate consistently chooses a Governor from the opposite party of the President elected a year earlier.

If Virginia’s partisan gubernatorial pattern continues, Spanberger would have the inside track toward winning the general election. Since the 1976 presidential election, only one time did the Virginia electorate choose a member of the recently elected President’s party for Governor (Terry McAuliffe (D) winning the 2013 election after President Obama had been re-elected in 2012).

Virginia is also the only state that still maintains a four-year term limit for its Governors and has since the 1851 election. Therefore, the state hosts an open race in every gubernatorial cycle. Though it is possible for former Governors to return to the office in subsequent elections, few have ever tried. The most recent to do so is McAuliffe. He returned to run in the 2021 election, but fell to the state’s current chief executive, Republican Glenn Youngkin.

The lack of qualifiers under the state’s onerous petition requirements means Virginia’s June primary will be meaningless in the 2025 Governor’s race. As a result, expect to see a much longer general election cycle this year. The final vote is scheduled for Nov. 4, 2025.

Roundup: Senate, House, Governor, States & Cities Updates

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Senate

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham / Photo by Gage Skidmore

South Carolina — Speculation about a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham has largely been extinguished. Last week, President Donald Trump announced his endorsement of the Senator for re-election, which should dissuade a MAGA activist from deciding to primary the four-term incumbent. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) had been publicly musing about challenging Sen. Graham but now appears to have his sights set either for the open Governor’s race or running for re-election.

Fundraising — Two potential US Senate candidates signaled that they are taking their preparatory phase seriously. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) says she is going to report raising over $1.1 million for the first quarter of 2025. The Congresswoman indicates she will decide in the next few weeks about launching a Senate campaign to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI).

Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), who is a likely Senate candidate if Sen. Dick Durbin (D) announces his retirement, wasted no time and is reporting raising over $3 million in the first quarter. Federal Election Commission reports will be made public after the 1st quarter filing deadline on April 15.

Minnesota — Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) this week announced that he won’t run for the Senate and instead endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D). It is expected that Ellison will seek re-election to a third term as the state’s AG. Also in the Democratic primary race is former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen. US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is still considered as a possible Senate candidate.

Several Republicans have announced, but the party leaders are looking for a strong contender who could run a tough and competitive general election campaign to come forward.

House

AZ-5 — Former professional football place kicker Jay Feeley (R), an ex-member of the Arizona Cardinals football team and CBS Sports sideline reporter, says he is considering entering what will be an open congressional race in Arizona’s 5th District. Additionally, former state Rep. Travis Grantham formally announced his congressional candidacy during the week. A crowded Republican primary is expected to compete to succeed Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) who is running for Governor. The 5th District with a partisan lean of 58.5R – 39.6D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians is rated as the 87th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

AZ-7 — Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D), as expected, announced that she will attempt to succeed her father, the late-Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) in the upcoming special election. The Democratic primary will likely be a battle between Ms. Grijalva and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. Others will comprise the field, but these two will be the principal contenders to win the nomination. The Democratic nomination is virtually tantamount to winning the Sept. 23 special election. Rep. Grijalva passed away on March 13.

CA-32 — Jake Rakov (D), a former staff member for California Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks), announced that he will challenge his old boss in the 2026 California jungle primary. Rep. Sherman was first elected in 1996 and has not yet announced whether he will run for a 16th term. Rakov says he is challenging Sherman because of his “inadequate wildfire response, not holding in-person town halls & not doing enough to resist Trump’s “MAGA hellscape.” Talent Agent Chris Ahuja (D) is also a declared candidate. Rep. Sherman is again favored to advance into the general election and retain his seat in the 2026 election.

NY-4 — It appears that we won’t see the third version of the Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) vs. former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R) campaign. President Trump announced that D’Esposito will become the Inspector General for the Department of Labor. Previously, the former New York Congressman, who lost his seat to Gillen in November, said he would return for a rematch. Republicans are expected to field a viable candidate to compete for the Long Island seat.

OH-13 — Former state Senator and Representative Kevin Coughlin (R), who lost to Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) by a 51-49 percent tally in November, says he will return to seek a rematch in 2026 in a district that former Vice President and presidential candidate Kamala Harris carried by just 183 votes. The district, however, may be different than in 2024. Under the Ohio redistricting system and because the current redistricting map was not passed with the required bipartisan support level, the map can only stand for two election cycles. Therefore, expect a new congressional plan to be unveiled in the next few weeks.

Governor

California — Former US Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General and previous Congressman Xavier Becerra (D) announced his intention to enter the open Governor’s campaign next year. Becerra also said he intends to stay in the race even if former Vice President Kamala Harris decides to run. Former Orange County Congresswoman Katie Porter (D) is also a declared candidate.

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D), ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), and state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) have all indicated they will run but could step aside if Harris decides to enter. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Most of the 2026 attention has focused on whether Harris will run, but she has yet to provide a definitive answer. The only serious Republican candidate is Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.

Georgia — Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) announced last week that she will not move forward with her plans to run for Governor. She said complications involving her husband’s cancer treatments have changed her plans as she will be devoting more time to helping him. It is expected she will seek re-election to the House, however.

On the other hand, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) announced that she will run for Governor. She will likely face a crowded Democratic primary field.

Republican Attorney General Chris Carr is an announced gubernatorial candidate for the GOP nomination. The Republican primary is expected to feature a number of candidates once term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announces whether he will run for the Senate.

South Carolina — First Tuesday Strategies poll (March 19-21; 500 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system & online) finds Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), leading Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, and Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) by a 21-16-7-6 percent margin.

States & Cities

Arkansas — Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) signed legislation that eliminates moving the primary election from cycle to cycle as has been the previous practice. In presidential election years, the Arkansas primary was held in March, but in midterm years the nomination vote returned to its traditional May slot. The new law sets March as the state’s permanent primary month. This means both the 2026 Democratic and Republican primaries will likely be held on March 3.

Boston — Though it was expected that real estate developer Thomas O’Brien (D) would announce his mayoral candidacy during the week, in fact he did the opposite. Mr. O’Brien, brother of Boston College head football coach Bill O’Brien and a former NFL head coach, instead announced that he will not enter the race to oppose incumbent Michelle Wu. Still in the contest is businessman Jonathan Kraft, son of New England Patriots owner Bob Kraft. The September jungle qualifying election is expected to be competitive.

Oakland — A new Oakland mayoral poll suggests that former Rep. Barbara Lee (D) has fallen behind in her quest to succeed ousted Mayor Sheng Thao (D). A new election was called once Thao was recalled from office during the November election. Oakland City Councilman Loren Taylor (D) released his internal EMC Research survey (March 17-20; 400 Oakland likely special election voters) that finds him leading the former veteran Congresswoman 45-40 percent. Previously, Lee led in all published polling but with diminishing margins. In 2024, Ms. Lee risked the US House seat she held for 26 years for an unsuccessful US Senate bid.

St. Louis — It appears that St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones’ (D) days in office are coming to an end. After performing poorly in the mayoral primary, a new Remington Research Group poll finds Alderwoman Cara Spencer (D), who placed first in the primary, enjoying a large 55-31 percent lead in the upcoming runoff election. Four years ago, Jones defeated Spencer but it appears the 2025 election will feature the opposite result.

New Hampshire Congressman Pappas Announces for Senate

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 7, 2025

Senate

New Hampshire Congressman Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) / Photo by Tim Pierce, Flickr

One impending 2026 Senate race is now clearer.

New Hampshire Congressman Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) announced late last week that he will run statewide next year. He is hoping to succeed Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), who made public her retirement intention on March 12.

Rep. Pappas should have an unencumbered path to securing the Democratic nomination. Freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) has indicated an interest in the Senate seat but so far has made no discernible move to organize a campaign and would risk the House seat she just won in November. Rep. Pappas getting in early certainly increases the chances of him quickly becoming a consensus party standard bearer.

The Pappas move could lead to an open general election between him and former Gov. Chris Sununu (R). Previously saying he has little interest in running for the Senate, Sununu, who left office in January after serving four consecutive two-year terms, has made more conciliatory statements about a 2026 Senate run but has also taken no firm organizational steps. Early polling showed the former Governor holding a substantial lead over Rep. Pappas.

Should Sununu not run, we can expect a crowded Republican primary field to form with Pappas becoming the front runner for the general election regardless of whom the GOP voters choose as their Senate nominee.

Possible Republican candidates include former Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire Senate nominee Scott Brown (lost to Shaheen, 51-48 percent), ex-state Senate President and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse, and current appointed New Hampshire Education Commissioner Frank Edelblut.

There is a good chance the state’s traditional September primary, one of the latest in the country, will move to an earlier date. Legislation is pending that would move the primary to either June, as Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) supports, or August. Both months would give the eventual general election nominees more time to campaign before the November vote.

Rep. Pappas, now serving his fourth term, would leave a competitive open House seat, which will likely become hotly contested in the next general election. From 2004 until Pappas was elected in 2018, New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District electorate defeated more incumbents than any other CD nationally.

In fact, during that 14-year period, the sitting incumbent was re-elected only once because then-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) kept trading the seat with Republican Frank Guinta. In his four election victories here, Pappas has averaged 52.8 percent of the vote.

We can expect both parties to host crowded 1st District nomination primaries and fight to a close general election result. The 2024 Republican nominee, former New Hampshire Executive Councilor and ex-state Sen. Russell Prescott who lost 52-45 percent, says he would consider launching another campaign. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt (R), who challenged Rep. Pappas in 2022 and lost 54-46 percent, said she will not run for the House next year.

The 1st District is the state’s eastern congressional seat, and includes all of Stafford County, almost all of Belknap and Carroll, and parts of Hillsborough, Merrimack, and Rockingham counties. The biggest population centers are the Manchester metropolitan area and the cities and towns that comprise the state’s Seacoast region. The 1st is slightly more Republican than the state’s western 2nd District.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 53.1R – 44.1D partisan lean, but the constituency tends to vote more Democratic in federal elections than this stat projects. The Down Ballot political data organization ranks NH-1 as the 12th most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference.

With Pappas leaving the House, it means that six seats would be considered open for the next election, with three coming from each party.

Aside from Pappas’s New Hampshire seat, the AZ-7 and TX-18 Democratic districts will be filled in special elections due to the passing of Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) and Sylvester Turner (D-Houston). Republicans Andy Biggs (R-AZ-5), Byron Donalds (R-FL-19), and John Rose (R-TN-6) are all announced gubernatorial candidates from their respective states.

Ohio May Check Wisconsin

Current Ohio Congressional Districts (click on map to see larger)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 4, 2025

Redistricting

Tuesday’s Wisconsin state Supreme Court election could well culminate in a redistricting effort that will change the state’s congressional districts. Considering the new high court’s personnel complexion, a redraw will likely mean the loss of two Republican seats.

Wisconsin, however, is not the only state that will or could undertake redistricting in 2025. Within Ohio’s unique and rather complex redistricting system, the current map must be changed before the 2026 elections.

Under the Buckeye State process, maps must be approved by a certain number of redistricting commission members from both parties before receiving three-fifths legislative approval. If a plan does not have sufficient bipartisan support, the district boundaries can still be passed into law with a majority vote in each state legislative chamber but will only stand for two election cycles.

Such was the case in the 2021-22 Ohio redistricting process; thus, the current map is only in place for the 2022 and 2024 election cycles. Therefore, the state must redraw the plan for the 2026 election and beyond.

Very likely, Wisconsin Republican Congressmen Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and Derek Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) will be in jeopardy once the redraw process begins, but a certain pair of Ohio Democratic House members may also face a similar problem.

At the end-point through the complex Ohio process, a majority could approve a new map without bipartisan support, but it would again only remain in place for two election cycles. This means, at least for the short-term, Republicans could theoretically make the Ohio congressional map even more to their partisan liking.

Today, two Democratic seats are politically marginal. Veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) has been in the House since her original election in 1982. She barely won re-election this past November, however (48.3 – 47.6 percent). Once her district was moved out of Cleveland and solely into central and northwestern Ohio, it became a much more competitive seat.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rated OH-9 as R+6. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculated the partisan lean in a bit different manner and found the 9th District in pure tossup territory (48.9D – 48.6R), which is the way it performed in 2024.

In the Akron area, Rep. Emilia Sykes (D) was reelected with just 51 percent support last November. Her opponent in that election, former state legislator Kevin Coughlin (R), has already said that he will return for a rematch in 2026. Her 13th District is also very tight politically, one that Kamala Harris carried with only a 183-vote margin in the 2024 presidential election.

Ironically, according to The Down Ballot political blog analysis, Sykes, then a state Representative, and her father, former state Sen. Vernon Sykes, were two Democratic redistricting commission members who refused to vote in favor of the congressional map when it was drawn before the 2022 election. Because of their lack of support the map could only last four years, and now the plan may be re-drawn to Sykes personal detriment.

While the Democrats believe they can gain two seats in the Wisconsin delegation through a new redistricting, such an increase could be negated if the Ohio Republicans redraw Districts 9 and 13 in their partisan favor.

As we have seen many times, redistricting in the modern political era is no longer a once-in-a-decade happening. In fact, redistricting situations occurred throughout the last decade, and our current decennial appears no different.

In any event, it is quite possible that Reps. Steil, Van Orden, Kaptur, and Sykes may all soon be facing different and unfavorable district boundaries from which to seek re-election in 2026.

Potential Wisconsin Redistricting

Click map above to see full size.

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 3, 2025

Redistricting

If Wisconsin congressional redistricting occurs later this year as a result of Tuesday’s state Supreme Court election, which current House members will be most affected?

Now that Democrats have won the high court election in the person of Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford (D), expect the new panel members to eventually position themselves to redraw the state’s congressional districts.

Though redistricting is supposed to be completed just once a decade after a decennial census, we have seen many court decisions forcing mid-decade redraws of congressional or state legislative district boundaries. It has now gotten to the point, as it did in the last two Wisconsin state Supreme Court election battles, that some judicial candidates even add the redistricting issue to their campaign agenda.

In the Wisconsin instance, the court will likely rule that the state’s 6R-2D congressional map is a partisan gerrymander. Judge Crawford stated during the campaign that she believes the districts should be redrawn, thus creating two more Democratic seats. Proponents of this line of reasoning suggest that because the statewide vote count is routinely a toss-up in the state, the congressional map should be a reflection of the typical statewide voting trend.

Before the 2024 election, the Wisconsin court, again with a 4-3 Democratic majority, redrew the boundaries of both the state Assembly and Senate using a similar partisan gerrymandering argument. The change resulted in Democrats gaining a net 10 seats in the Assembly and four in the Senate. Though the new map severely altered the partisan complexion, Republicans still maintained their majorities in both houses.

Curiously, the court did not simultaneously change the congressional map as many believed they would. Some analysts surmised that the underlying reason for not redrawing the federal plan was the US Senate race.

At the time of the legislative redraws, it appeared Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin would draw an easy opponent and secure a third term. Yet, if the congressional lines were redrawn, it would have been probable that Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville), who already had well over $3 million in his federal campaign account at the time, would jump into the Senate race if his 1st Congressional District was drawn to elect a Democrat.

If this was the surprising reason for leaving the congressional map untouched, it was likely a prudent partisan move. Ultimately, what appeared at the outset to be a strong run for Baldwin turned into a very tight battle as underestimated candidate Eric Hovde (R) managed to run a viable campaign and came within nine-tenths of one percentage point of unseating the Senator. It is reasonable to believe that an opponent such as Rep. Steil, who would have been taken seriously from the beginning, might have attracted more support than Hovde and won the seat.

With no 2026 Wisconsin Senate race, a federal statewide campaign will not be a factor. The Governor’s office, on the other hand, is on the ballot. Gov. Tony Evers (D) has won two close gubernatorial campaigns and looks to be preparing to run for a third time. Changing the congressional map could force a displaced Congressman to move into the Governor’s race, thus making the incumbent’s re-election path more difficult.

Assuming the court moves forward with a redraw, who will be the likely targets? The answer lies in the southern and western parts of the state where Reps. Steil and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) already hold competitive political districts.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, Rep. Steil’s 1st District has a partisan lean of 49.4R – 48.3D. Rep. Van Orden’s district is similarly tight, though Democrats already have a slight edge on the same partisan lean scale, 48.9D – 48.5R. Businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D), who held Rep. Van Orden to a 51-49 percent victory margin last November has already said that she will return for a 2026 re-match.

To the west of Rep. Steil’s southern 1st District and to the east of Rep. Van Orden’s CD-3, lies the Madison anchored 2nd District of Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Town of Vermont). WI-2’s partisan lean is 69.7D – 28.2R, which means this district could easily shed Democrats to District 3 without endangering Rep. Pocan’s future re-elections.

A similar situation exists in Rep. Steil’s situation. To the north of his district is Rep. Gwen Moore’s (D-Milwaukee) 4th CD. The partisan lean here is 73.6D – 24.2R. This is the state’s coalition minority seat. A combined total of all minorities pushes their Voting Age Population number to 52.9 percent, so there are plenty of Democratic votes that could be transferred to the 1st.

Obviously, more Republican voters from the 1st would be shifted to the 4th, and the same from the 3rd to the 2nd. The map would be more competitive for both Reps. Pocan and Moore, but their districts won’t be changed to the point of making either vulnerable to the point of losing.

The remaining five seats are all heavily Republican, and while Rep. Scott Fitzgerald’s (R-Clyman) 5th CD could be changed as part of the partisan swap among the aforementioned, it probably will continue to remain as a safely Republican seat. It is probable that the state’s northern districts, 6, 7, and 8, those of Reps. Glenn Grothman (R-Glenbeulah), Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua), and Tony Wied (R-De Pere/Green Bay), won’t fundamentally change.

This is only one possible scenario of a redistricting order that could take many forms. Expect Republicans to put up a major fight, and they will have some potential maneuvers in their legal quivers, but the partisan nature of this particular court suggests a new congressional redistricting plan is on the Wisconsin political horizon.