Author Archives: Jim Ellis

TN-7 Special Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2025

House

Republican Matt Van Epps, who President Trump endorsed over the weekend, easily won the crowded TN-7 Republican primary. State Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) scored a close win for the Democrats in TN-7.

Last night, the 2025-26 special election cycle featured the preliminary vote from the third of four congressional special elections, and we now see nominees from both parties emerging in Tennessee’s vacated 7th District.

For the Republicans, former Tennessee cabinet secretary Matt Van Epps, who President Trump endorsed over the weekend, easily won the crowded Republican primary. On the Democratic side, state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) scored a close win over a non-elected official and two fellow Nashville area state Representatives.

Van Epps and Behn now advance into the special general election scheduled for Dec. 2. The winner will fill the balance of the current term and of course be eligible to run for a full term in the regular 2026 election cycle. Former Congressman Mark Green (R) resigned in July to accept a position in the private sector, thus creating the vacancy and necessitating a special election.

The 7th District is strongly Republican, but clearly the Democrats are going to make a run to score an upset. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the partisan lean yields a 55.1 – 42.1 Republican to Democratic ratio. Both President Trump and Congressman Green exceeded the partisan lean in 2024. Trump defeated Kamala Harris in the 7th District, 60.4 – 38.1 percent. Rep. Green was re-elected to a fourth term with a similar 59.5 – 38.1 percent victory margin.

The 7th includes 11 western Tennessee counties and parts of three others. One of the split counties is Davidson, which means part of the city of Nashville lies within the 7th District’s domain. The other major population center is Montgomery County, which houses the city of Clarksville, home of former Rep. Green.

The primary turnout suggests that this race could be close in December. The total Republican participation factor was 36,854 individuals. Total Democratic turnout was 31,002, not far behind the GOP figure. The aggregate turnout for the two primaries was 67,856, which is just about average for a special congressional primary when measured against similar elections around the country. The general election turnout is expected to be higher but may be under 100,000 voters if the primary is any indication.

In comparison, the 2024 general election congressional turnout was 322,656, obviously way ahead of last night’s report. In the last midterm, 2022, which would be a better comparison since we are currently in a midterm cycle, the participation figure was 180,822, or only 56 percent of the presidential election cycle turnout, which is a larger drop-off rate (44 percent) than average. Usually, we see drop-offs from a presidential year to the succeeding midterm in the 35 percent range.

Van Epps recorded majority support in the Republican primary at 51.5 percent. His closest competitors, state Reps. Jody Barrett (R-Dickson) and Gino Bulso (R-Brentwood), received 25.3 percent and 10.9 percent, respectively. None of the other eight candidates managed to reach six percent support, though state Rep. Lee Reeves (R-Franklin) dropped out of the race after President Trump endorsed Van Epps. Rep. Reeves then also publicly supported the eventual winner.

For the Democrats, we saw a much tighter battle. State Rep. Behn received 27.9 percent of the partisan vote. Closely behind was businessman Darden Copeland with 24.9 percent. Two other state Representatives, Bo Mitchell (D-Nashville) and Vincent Dixie (D-Nashville), also were not far behind, finishing with 24.2 percent and 23.1 percent, respectively.

It is likely that Rep. Behn will now be able to unite the Democratic Party for the special general election. Because of how the primary unfolded, it is anticipated that the general election may be closer than the historical data would suggest.

Van Epps appears to be a strong candidate, but his campaign organization will need to substantially increase Republican turnout in order to secure the seat not only for the special general election but also for future campaigns.

North Carolina Redistricting

North Carolina redistricting map / Click on image to go to interactive version on Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2025

Redistricting

The Tar Heel State of North Carolina appears positioned to join the national redistricting wars. The state has been redrawn more than any other since the 2010 census, and it looks like the legislature may again change the congressional district boundaries.

North Carolina has a unique system where the Governor has no veto power over redistricting. Republicans have solid control of both legislative houses, which is all they need to change the map. Before the 2022 election, the legislature and state courts were in a perennial battle over redistricting as it related to the race issue. The Republican legislature would pass a map and the state Supreme Court, with a Democratic majority, would reject it and impose a different draw.

In the 2022 election, the Republicans captured the state Supreme Court majority, thus uniting the legislature and judiciary with regard to redistricting legislation. This led to the General Assembly replacing the court imposed map that yielded each party seven seats and, with judicial approval, enacted the current draw where Republicans control 10 seats and Democrats four.

Turning to the national redistricting wars where many states are redrawing or considering replacing their congressional map, the North Carolina legislative Republicans may make a further adjustment. Doing so would net another GOP seat, thus creating an 11R-3D statewide congressional map.

The target will be the state’s politically marginal eastern 1st District that two-term US Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) represents. The 1st is one of 13 districts nationally that President Trump carried but the electorate then turned and elected a Democrat to the US House. In NC-1, Trump scored a 51.2 – 48.1 percent victory margin over Kamala Harris. In the same 2024 election, Rep. Davis defeated Republican Laurie Buckhout, 49.5 – 48.7 percent.

North Carolina’s 1st District covers 21 counties and part of one other. The seat hugs the Virginia border from just west of the cities of Rocky Mount and Wilson along Interstate 95 and then moves east all the way to the Atlantic Ocean. It then stretches south and east of Raleigh to achieve population equivalency with the other districts. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the partisan lean here is a fairly tight 50.9D – 47.7R.

Looking at the map from a partisan perspective, which the legislative leaders and the White House certainly are, it would be relatively easy to make the 1st District more Republican, thus making it easier to defeat Rep. Davis.

The 1st shares a border with Rep. Greg Murphy’s (R-Greenville) 3rd District. An interchange of an equal number of Democratic and Republican voters from District 1 to District 3 would endanger Rep. Davis and still create a safe Republican seat for Rep. Murphy while not disrupting the other nine Republican members’ districts. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean for the current CD-3 is 57.2R – 40.7D.

Leaders in many states are discussing redistricting for their next legislative session. The Texas and Missouri maps are complete and will face the perfunctory legal challenges. California Democrats are countering the Texas map with a referendum designed to replace the California Independent Redistricting Commission’ plan enacted in 2021. Polling suggests a close vote for Proposition 50 in the Nov. 4 special statewide election, but the overwhelming Democratic registration numbers and their resource advantage suggest that they can probably win the election.

Both the Texas and California map are drawn with the intent of adding five seats to their party’s congressional delegation, Republicans in Texas and Democrats in California. If the maps perform as designed, the respective five-seat gains will cancel one another. Hence, the importance of other states redrawing their maps for Republicans to strengthen their current US House majority.

If North Carolina redraws, their new Republican seat and the one in Missouri will net the GOP an additional two seats in the House.

The Florida legislature is already planning to redistrict upon their return to regular session in January. Their plan could net the GOP a reported two seats. Indiana Republican legislative leaders, with encouragement from the White House, are potentially considering a redraw that also could net the GOP two seats. Under state law, Ohio must redraw because the current map did not receive three-fifths support in the legislature. The new map could net the GOP a further two seats.

The Utah courts have ruled that their state’s congressional map is illegal because the legislature ignored redistricting criteria that voters adopted in a previous election. A new draw could give the Democrats a net gain of one.

Perhaps the most defining redistricting issue is the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case currently before the US Supreme Court. The justices didn’t rule in June as expected, instead scheduling a new round of oral arguments for Oct. 15. The eventual Louisiana ruling could affect the redistricting situation in several other states and could prove to be the landmark racial gerrymandering ruling that will finally clarify what the states can and can’t do to remain in compliance with the US Constitution and the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

The final redistricting decisions and moves will have a profound impact upon the 2026 US House election cycle. Whichever party ultimately prevails in the better position will have a major advantage toward securing a House majority for the 120th Congress.

The New Missouri Lines

Missouri Congressional Districts / Click on image to go to Dave’s Redistricting interactive map.


By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 6, 2025

Redistricting

Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe (R) signed the legislature’s new congressional redistricting map this week, so it appears that the Show Me State delegation will compete in new districts next year.

Naturally, lawsuits are being filed to nullify the new map, and it remains to be seen how the courts will rule through the continuing legal process. Depending upon the lawsuit’s subject matter, the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case before the US Supreme Court could have an effect upon future Missouri map rulings. Oral arguments for the Louisiana case are scheduled for Oct. 15, with a decision to come before the year ends.

The new Missouri map protects all six GOP incumbents, though most shed Republican voters in order to create a new western Republican 5th District. At the heart of the new plan is changing the Kansas City area to create a new Republican leaning seat instead of 11-term Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D-Kansas City) urban downtown district.

To make the plan work for the GOP, the map drawers expanded the 4th District’s Jackson County share, including drawing the seat directly into Kansas City. Previously, the 4th contained part of Jackson County but none of Kansas City. The design then drives the new 5th CD into rural areas, while still keeping a large portion of Kansas City. The new draw then extends the seat east all the way past Jefferson City, meaning the 5th district’s eastern boundary is now closer to St. Louis than Kansas City.

The new partisan lean of 58.4R – 40.1D (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations) is quite different from the previous 5th’s 60.8D – 35.9R division. The difference is a net swing of 43.2 percentage points in the Republicans’ favor.

Though the new 5th District appears reliably Republican, Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas (D) indicated he might consider running for Congress there, believing the seat will still be competitive and assuming 80-year-old Rep. Cleaver does not seek re-election. The Mayor indicated he wants to ensure that “Kansas Citians … have a choice at the ballot box that represents Kansas City viewpoints and values.”

The 4th District alterations are also substantial. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App calculations, the new partisan lean is 59.9R – 38.7D. The previous 4th held a partisan break of 66.8R – 29.9D under the same projection formula, so we see a net change of almost 16 percentage points toward the Democratic line.

Rep. Mark Alford’s (R-Lake Winnebago) 4th is still strongly Republican, and the Congressman will be a clear favorite to win re-election, but he may have to wage a more active campaign than he would have from his original 4th CD.

The remaining six districts all keep their population cores though the partisan leans change in some cases.

The 1st District is again largely the city of St. Louis, but the partisan lean has been made just slightly more Democratic. In the 2021 map, the partisan division was projected at 77.1D – 20.4R. The new 1st carries a 77.9D – 20.3R break. Here, we are likely to see a Democratic primary re-match.

Earlier in the week, former Rep. Cori Bush, who lost renomination in 2024, said she will return to face now-Congressman Wesley Bell (D-St. Louis). Irrespective of who prevails in next year’s Aug. 4 Dem primary, the winner will claim the new 1st in the general election.

Another Republican redraw goal was to improve Rep. Ann Wagner’s (R-Ballwin) re-election prospects in her St. Louis suburban 2nd District by adding more Republican voters. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App calculations, the new partisan lean is 54.9R – 43.4D, which is a further cushion of about a point and a half for the seven-term incumbent.

The Republicans from District 3 (freshman Rep. Bob Onder) and 6 (Rep. Sam Graves) both see their respective districts become slightly more Democratic, but the two seats remain firmly in the GOP camp and neither incumbent will have trouble being re-elected.

The two southern Missouri congressional seats, District 7 (Rep. Eric Burlison) and 8 (Rep. Jason Smith), actually see their two safe Republican seats become even more so under the new plan.

Assuming the new map withstands the legal challenges, expect the Republicans to see a net gain of one seat in the Missouri delegation.

Rep. Schweikert Announces for
Governor in Arizona

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 3, 2025

House

Arizona Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale) / Photo by Gage Skidmore via Flickr

Another US House seat came open Wednesday as eight-term Arizona Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale) announced that he will enter the competitive Republican primary for Governor.

The House open seat count now grows, at least temporarily, to 33. Two more special elections will be held before the end of the year to fill vacancies in Tennessee and Texas.

Rep. Schweikert’s 1st Congressional District becomes the third Republican open in the volatile toss-up category. After the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission members turned Rep. Schweikert’s safe Republican 6th District into a politically marginal 1st District, he has seen two very close re-election results along with a tight presidential contest within his current constituency.

In 2022, Rep. Schweikert was re-elected with just 50.2 percent of the vote over political newcomer and businessman Jevin Hodge (D). Two years later with Hodge not returning for a re-match, the incumbent scored another tight re-election victory but with an improved 51.9 percent against former state Representative and physician Amish Shah (D). This, after winning renomination with just under 63 percent of the vote.

Considering, however, that Schweikert had just agreed to violating 11 different House ethics rules and campaign finance violations resulting in an agreed to $50,000 fine, his strong campaign skills allowed him to politically survive.

President Trump defeated Kamala Harris here with a similarly close 51.1 – 48.0 percent victory margin. In 2020, Joe Biden nipped Trump within the current District 1 confines with a 50-49 percent margin.

Clearly, the 1st District congressional campaign will move further up the Democratic target list now that the seat is open. Already in the race originally vying for the opportunity of challenging Rep. Schweikert is a return appearance from Dr. Shah and former news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, who lost the 2024 Democratic primary.

Republicans will now have to find a new nominee with Schweikert pursuing his new statewide venture. Potential GOP candidates reportedly are state Rep. Matt Gress and Phoenix City Councilman Jim Waring.

Already, however, announcing they will not run for Congress, according to The Down Ballot political blog reporters, are Maricopa County Board of Supervisors’ chairman Thomas Galvin and state Sen. Carine Werner.

While Rep. Schweikert would have faced another difficult re-election campaign for the House, his path toward the Republican gubernatorial nomination is also far from secure. In the race for months have been fellow Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) and 2022 statewide candidate Karrin Taylor Robson.

At least at one point, President Trump had endorsed both Biggs and Robson but then appeared to rescind his endorsement of the latter. The President indicated he didn’t feel that she was using his endorsement to the fullest extent.

A recent Pulse Decision Science survey (Sept. 8-10; 502 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; live interview) finds Rep. Biggs opening a large GOP primary lead. According to the Pulse ballot test, the Congressman would lead Robson 55-31 percent. The poll was taken just after Rep. Schweikert initially said he was considering entering the race. Adding him to the gubernatorial ballot test question found Schweikert trailing badly with only 11 percent support.

An August, Noble Predictive Insights survey (Aug. 11-18; 365 registered Arizona Republican voters) gave Robson a 37-27 percent advantage over Rep. Biggs. This poll, however, appears to be an outlier.

Previously, four other surveys were released since the beginning of the year from four different pollsters and all cast Rep. Biggs with a substantial advantage. Within the four studies, Biggs averaged 55 percent preference among Republican primary voting respondents as compared to 20 percent for Robson.

The eventual Republican nominee after the Aug. 4, 2026, primary election will face incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). Polling is already forecasting a close race irrespective of who becomes the ultimate GOP challenger.

With a tight Governor’s race, two open US House seats, and either primary or general election competition in five of the state’s nine congressional districts, Arizona will be a key electoral state in the 2026 midterm cycle.

New Pappas-Sununu Data

Click on image to see full poll results.

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025

Senate

The University of New Hampshire just released another of their regular Granite State polls, and we see further evidence of a budding competitive open New Hampshire US Senate contest between Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R), son of former Governor and White House Chief of Staff John Sununu and brother of four-term New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu.

The UNH poll (Sept. 17-23; 1,361 New Hampshire adults; 1,235 likely general election voters; 529 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Pappas leading a ballot test question with ex-Sen. Sununu 49-43 percent, but the sampling universe leans more Democratic than the actual voting data suggests. Therefore, it is likely that Sununu is a bit closer to Pappas than this spread foretells.

If ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R), who ran for the New Hampshire Senate seat in 2014 and lost to now-retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 51-48 percent, were the 2026 Republican nominee the Pappas lead would grow to 52-37 percent. On the current Republican Senate primary ballot test, Sununu posts a landslide lead over Brown, 42-19 percent.

Several data points provide evidence that the poll skews somewhat Democratic, though the answers have been weighted to balance the responses, at least to a degree.

The skew clues come from several questions. In terms of setting the sampling parameters, the official state voter registration party preference categorization totals 32.0 percent Republican, 28.3 percent Democratic, and 39.7 percent Unaffiliated voters. Total registration is recorded at 1,099,033 individuals.

The UNH poll divides the party identification categories into two different questions. First, is the partisan-registered voter query, and this number is consistent with the official state voter reg totals. In the poll, the self-identified partisan total is 32-29-39 percent Republican, Democratic, and Unaffiliated voters.

A second “Party ID” cell segmentation, however, asks an additional question, and the responses swing toward the Democrats with a 44-41-14 percent partisan division (Democratic; Republican; Unaffiliated). It is surmised that the pollsters are attempting to see how the unaffiliateds break, which explains the partisan switch and the severe reduction from the actual number of Unaffiliated registered voters (39 percent) to those who self-identify as Unaffiliated (14 percent).

Such a partisan break is seemingly consistent with New Hampshire’s federal election results even though the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculations suggest a very different pattern.

In terms of the statewide partisan lean, DRA calculates a 52.0R – 45.2D party break. While the federal delegation (two Senators, two Representatives) is unanimously Democratic, the Republicans back home enjoy a statewide trifecta (Governor; majorities in both legislative houses). Thus, the voting split between federal and state offices is diametrically opposed. Together, these points largely explain the high number of close elections seen in the state over the past few years.

Perhaps the most definitive skew clue is the reported presidential vote within the polling sample. In the 2024 election, the actual vote count found then-Vice President Kamala Harris defeating then-former President Donald Trump with a 50.3 – 47.6 percent victory margin.

According to the poll respondents the presidential break is 51-45 percent in Harris’s favor; hence, these calculations suggest the 49-43 percent Pappas swing is potentially 2-3 percentage points closer.

Rep. Pappas was first elected to the House in 2018 after serving six years on the New Hampshire Executive Council [a unique five-member panel elected in districts that retains certain veto powers over the Governor relating to budget matters and personnel appointments], four years as Hillsborough (Manchester) County Treasurer, and four years in the state House of Representatives.

Pappas, in his four US House terms, has turned what was the most volatile congressional district in the United States (from 2004 thru 2016, NH-1 had defeated more incumbents that any CD in the country), into a safe domain for himself, thus bringing some political stabilization to the eastern New Hampshire area.

John E. Sununu was elected to the 1st District US House seat in 1996 and held the position for three terms. He was elected to the Senate in 2002, defeating then-Gov. Shaheen. Six years later, Shaheen returned to challenge Sen. Sununu, and successfully unseated him. She, of course, was then re-elected in 2014 and 2020.

Assuming Sununu enters the 2026 US Senate race, and all indications suggest he will, the New Hampshire open seat moves into the highly competitive category. Without Sununu as the GOP nominee, Rep. Pappas, who adroitly has positioned himself as the consensus Democratic candidate long before the state’s late September 8th primary, would see a clear path toward succeeding Sen. Shaheen.

A Serious Pelosi Challenge?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025

House

Saikat Chakrabarti

Saikat Chakrabarti, a Democratic challenger to Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), released an internal poll that he says positions him to end her congressional career. Pelosi, who was elected to the House in 1987 after being the California Democratic Party chair, began her tenure after winning a special election victory in ’87 that would eventually lead to eight years directing the US House.

Chakrabarti quarterbacked Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s shocking upset 2018 Democratic primary victory over veteran New York Rep. Joe Crowley and now believes he can engineer a similar result for himself against a Democratic Party icon.

A Chakrabarti campaign poll from Beacon Research (Sept. 12-20; 600 likely California June jungle primary voters; text and live interview) finds Rep. Pelosi leading Chakrabarti 47-34 percent. After the respondents are read push questions featuring the 85-year-old incumbent’s age and whether or not a new generation of Democratic leadership should come to power, the ballot test then flips to 44-36 percent in Chakrabarti’s favor.

Though the poll could arguably be within the realm of accuracy at this early date, the results should not be taken particularly seriously. Most importantly, we are not looking at a Democratic primary battle on June 2. Instead, California uses the top-two jungle primary system that places all candidates on the same ballot irrespective of political party affiliation. The top two finishers in what is ostensibly a qualifying election then advance into the general election regardless of the percentages attained on the initial vote.

Thus, to think Rep. Pelosi would not advance into the general election under this system is absurd considering her consecutive 20 congressional election win streak from her San Francisco-anchored CD.

The general election will yield an entirely different campaign because the turnout will be much larger in the November election, which benefits the former Speaker. Thus, it will not be enough for Chakrabarti to outpace Pelosi in the lower turnout June election because both contenders would advance into the general no matter what their attained percentages.

It is already becoming clear, however, that we will see a number of intra-party challenges to aging Democratic incumbents around the country from younger candidates. Several, such as Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH; 78 years old), and Reps. Danny Davis (D-IL; 84), and Jan Schakowsky (D-IL; 81), have already announced their retirements in the face of potential challengers who said they would use the “new generation of leadership” theme.

Others looking at serious challenges and facing the same theme are Reps. John Larson (D-CT; 77) and David Scott (D-GA; 80). Other Democratic members who are 75 years old or older and are seeking re-election may have nomination challengers, but the opposition at this point does not look particularly strong. This list includes two past leadership members, Reps. Steny Hoyer, (D-MD; 86) and Jim Clyburn, (D-SC; 85), along with Reps. Maxine Waters (D-CA; 87) and Frederica Wilson (D-FL; 82).

While Rep. Pelosi has filed a 2026 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission, she has yet to formally announce her re-election candidacy. It is presumed, however, that she will seek a 21st term.

The California Congresswoman’s 11th District, fully contained on the San Francisco peninsula, is one of the most Democratic seats in the country. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the CA-11 partisan lean is 86.6D – 11.6R. In California, only two districts are more Democratic, and only by a point or two. The pair are the Oakland seat of freshman Rep. Lateefah Simon (D) along with two-term Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove’s (D) Los Angeles domain.

Should voters approve the proposed California redistricting map in the Nov. 4 special election, the three strongest Democratic districts will remain virtually intact. This means that Pelosi’s general election opponent will almost assuredly be a Democrat, and very likely Chakrabarti.

Assuming the former Speaker runs for re-election, the chances of Chakrabarti or any other Democrat dethroning her are minimal at best. Therefore, though an early poll such as his Beacon Research study may suggest a modicum of weakness for the long-time House member, the final vote will again return her for yet another term.

Adams Withdraws From NYC Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 20, 2025

Mayor

New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D) / Photo by Marc A. Hermann, MTA via Flickr

The inevitable happened in the New York City Mayor’s race this week when the incumbent, Eric Adams, officially ended his campaign. How his withdrawal affects the race’s final month remains to be seen.

Languishing in all polling, enduring a federal indictment process from which President Trump pardoned him, unable to qualify for matching funds, and experiencing a tumultuous four years in office made the Mayor unelectable. In fact, his Democratic primary prospects were so poor that he exited the nomination race in April to run as an Independent.

Even with such a move he was unable to exceed 13 percent of the general election vote in any poll and shrunk to single digit support in the six most recent publicly released research studies from Sept. 8-22.

The New York City Mayor’s race has gained a great deal of national attention largely because the leading candidate and Democratic nominee, state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (D-Astoria), is an avowed socialist who advocates radical ideas. He plans to create government-run grocery stores, adopt extreme rent control policies in what he says will “make New York City affordable,” and severely downsize the police force.

As we know, Mamdani defeated former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary along with 10 others, posting 44 percent of the vote in the first round of voting. Under the city’s Ranked Choice Voting system, Mamdani exceeded the 50 percent mark in the third round, topping Cuomo 56-44 percent. The Ranked Choice system will not be used in the general election, meaning the winner can claim the office with only plurality support.

Winning with less than a majority appears to be on the horizon for Mamdani or any other potential winner. Despite his loss in the Democratic primary, Cuomo remains in the race as an Independent, or ostensibly the nominee of the Fight and Deliver Party.

The Republican nominee is perennial mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa who founded the Guardian Angels crime prevention organization in 1977 then known as the “Magnificent 13.” The unofficial citizens’ organization originally stood against violence on the New York City subway system and later expanded to citywide crime coverage. Always controversial, Sliwa summarily hosted a New York City radio show. Two other minor party candidates are also on the ballot.

The prevailing electoral analysis suggests a Mamdani plurality win, meaning the majority of voters would have chosen another candidate. Therefore, much pressure was put upon Mayor Adams to drop out since there appeared no scenario that would lead him to victory.

Now that Adams has withdrawn, that same pressure will now turn toward Sliwa, who has only performed slightly better in polling. With only an 11 percent Republican partisan registration within New York City, a Sliwa victory is highly improbable.

Seeing both Adams and Sliwa depart would create a virtual one-on-one scenario between Mamdani and Cuomo, which appears as the only scenario where the Democratic nominee could be defeated.

Yet, in prospective ballot tests without Adams, we see little movement. Earlier Mamdani-Cuomo-Sliwa polling was showing virtually no change in the size of the Democrat’s lead. In the six polls conducted from Sept. 8 to now, Mamdani averaged a consistent 44.3 percent, posting support figures of 45 percent in four of the surveys and 43 percent in the remaining two.

For his part, Cuomo averaged 25.8 percent in the six polls, almost 20 points behind the leader. Sliwa didn’t do much better than Mayor Adams. In the same half-dozen ballot test surveys, the Sliwa average was 12.8 percent, only slightly above the city Republican registration figure.

The campaign’s final month will be the determining factor, understanding that Cuomo has a great deal of ground to close. Sliwa staying in the race, as he continues to promise, suggests a Cuomo victory path becomes even smaller and allows Mamdani greater campaign latitude.

It will be interesting to see how the race concludes. Mamdani continues to enjoy momentum moving toward the general election, even in the face of what could mean a mass exodus of NYC businesses. The prevailing business community analysis believes large numbers of owners will depart because they will not be able to make a sustainable profit under new Mamdani Administration ordinances that the city may adopt.

Should we see negative economic or public safety ramifications occur once Mamdani wins the mayor’s election, expect the New York example to then be used against Democrats in many 2026 congressional and gubernatorial campaigns. At this point, even with Mayor Adams leaving the race, it appears the general election is still Mamdani’s to lose.