Author Archives: Jim Ellis

Iowa Rep. Hinson Declares
Her Candidacy for Senate

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 4, 2025

Senate

Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) / Facebook photo

On the heels of Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) announcing her retirement earlier this week, three-term US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) quickly declared her candidacy for the now open Iowa Senate seat.

Rep. Hinson will be a strong statewide candidate. In the House since 2021, a state Representative for two terms, and a Cedar Rapids ABC affiliate news anchor before running for office, Congresswoman Hinson has both the political and media experience necessary to be a strong candidate. Though the Republicans are losing an incumbent on the 2026 statewide ballot, Rep. Hinson will give the party everything they need to hold the open Senate seat.

The Democratic field is expected to remain constant. It features state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs), Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, and local Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage. The open Governor’s race has attracted the state’s lone statewide Democratic officeholder, State Auditor Rob Sand.

Although Rep. Hinson’s 2nd Congressional District being in an open situation leaves competitive potential. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 51.4R – 45.3D partisan lean. President Trump carried the IA-2 district with a 54-44 percent victory margin over Kamala Harris. In 2020, Hinson defeated one-term Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) who had unseated then-Rep. Rod Blum (R) in 2018.

Iowa is one of 31 states that register voters with partisan affiliation. In the 2nd District, 450,332 individuals are actively registered to vote. A total of 36.1 percent affiliate as Republican, 33.4 percent as No Party, 29.8 percent Democratic, and 0.7 percent as “Other.”

Therefore, the statistics suggest that this northeastern Iowa district leans Republican but, as in 2018 when Finkenauer won, the seat has flip potential in a strong Democratic year.

Expect to see political musical chairs begin among state legislators who represent districts that fall within the 2nd CD boundaries. It is likely we will see several current or former lawmakers come forward. One person already reportedly making fundraising calls and informing potential supporters that he is going to run is Trump Administration HUD official Joe Mitchell, a former state Senator.

Turning to the Democratic side, four individuals are already active candidates including state Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque). The other candidates are ex-nursing college dean and retired Army Lt. Col. Kathy Dolter, 2020 local office nominee Don Primus, and pastor and non-profit organization founder Clint Twedt-Ball. It is probable we will soon see other Democrats also come to the forefront.

The 2nd District lies in Iowa’s northeast sector under the state’s quadrant congressional redistricting plan. It borders the Mississippi River and Illinois on the east and Minnesota to the north.

Under the rather unique plan, incumbents’ residences are not considered when drawing maps, and all counties are kept whole within each individual CD. Thus, the 2nd District houses 13 complete counties with four significant population centers. In order of size from large to small, the inhabitant clusters are the cities of Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, Dubuque, and Mason City.

Counting IA-2, a total of 31 seats are now in the open category (15R, 12D, with three new as a result of Texas redistricting), and Rep. Hinson becomes the tenth House member to run for the Senate in the current election cycle. Once the four special elections to fill vacant seats conclude beginning next week and running through early next year, the open seat will at least temporarily drop to 27.

Rep. Jerrold Nadler to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 3, 2025

House

Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-New York City) | Facebook photo

The open seat count in the US House rose to 30 yesterday, at least temporarily, as 17-term Empire State Congressman Jerrold Nadler (D-New York City) announced that he will not seek re-election next year.

The decision ends a long New York political career that featured Nadler holding an elected office consecutively since the beginning of 1977 when adding his combined time in Congress and the New York State Assembly.

In an interview with the New York Times, Rep. Nadler indicated that the generation gap was an issue in making his retirement decision. He said, “[w]atching the Biden thing really said something about the necessity for generational change in the party, and I think I want to respect that…” Nadler will be 79 years old when the 2026 election is held.

Rep. Nadler’s 12th Congressional District lies fully within the Borough of Manhattan and contains most of Central Park. It stretches from the island’s western border at the Hudson River across Manhattan to the East River. NY-12 is the smallest area district in the country.

The Nadler departure is likely to leave a very crowded Democratic primary in his wake. With a partisan lean of 83.9D – 13.7R (Dave’s Redistricting App), the Nadler successor will be the eventual Democratic nominee.

Kamala Harris defeated President Trump in the 12th District, 81-17 percent, which was down from President Biden’s 85-14 percent win in 2020. We can expect several state legislators and New York City Councilmembers to enter the race.

Another possible candidate is former NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, a previous Manhattan Borough President and ex-state Assemblyman. Stringer finished fifth in the 2025 mayoral primary, and while he has had success in winning past New York City elections, his poor electoral showing in the most recent contest isn’t likely to frighten other prospective candidates.

Within the national open seat count, 15 are Republican-held districts as opposed to 12 from the Democratic side. The remaining three are new seats created through the Texas redistricting process. Nadler is the only New York member currently not seeking re-election. Among the 30 opens, only two — MI-10 (Rep. John James-R) and NE-2 (Rep. Don Bacon-R) — can legitimately be considered as toss-up campaigns heading into the 2026 elections.

Four of the opens will be filled in upcoming special elections. Pertaining to the vacating House members, nine are running for the Senate, eight for Governor of their respective state, and one, Texas Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin), entered the race for state Attorney General. Rep. Nadler becomes the fifth member opting to retire from elective politics.

The open-seat list will recede next Tuesday when the VA-11 special election is held to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D). Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw, a former Connolly chief of staff, is the prohibitive favorite to defeat Republican Stewart Whitson, a former FBI agent.

Two weeks later, on Sept. 23, the AZ-7 special election will be conducted to replace the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D). Former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D), the deceased Congressman’s daughter, is the big favorite to win the vacated seat.

Shortly thereafter on Oct. 7, both Republicans and Democrats will choose special election nominees from crowded fields in western Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. The eventual party nominees will advance to a Dec. 2 special general election. The winner will replace resigned Rep. Mark Green (R), who left the House to accept a position in the private sector.

The final special election is scheduled concurrently with the municipal election day, Nov. 4, and will occur in Houston’s 18th Congressional District. A large field is competing for the safely Democratic seat, but the eventual winner will immediately find him or herself in a paired incumbent battle with Rep. Al Green (D-Houston), under the newly enacted Texas redistricting map, in an early March 3 primary election.

Another Senate Opening?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 2, 2025

Senate

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA)

Media rumors had been routinely circulating through most of this year saying that Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) was contemplating retirement, and apparently such a decision is about to be confirmed.

According to printed Iowa sources, it is expected that Sen. Ernst will imminently announce her retirement thus creating an eighth Senate open seat for the 2026 campaign.

Should Sen. Ernst pass on running for a third term as now firmly predicted, the Republicans would still be in strong position to hold the open seat. Waiting in the wings with the chance to become a consensus GOP candidate is three-term Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) who has convincingly made what should be a politically marginal northeast Iowa 2nd District into a safe domain.

Hinson, a former news anchor for a Cedar Rapids television station, came to Congress in the 2020 election when she unseated first-term Democratic Rep. Abby Finkenauer in the pre-redistricting 1st CD. She has since averaged 55.6 percent of the vote in her two re-elections. In the 2022 race, she defeated a strong Democratic candidate, then-state Sen. Liz Mathis, who was also a former Cedar Rapids news anchor, with 54.1 percent of the vote.

The Democratic Senate field features state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs), Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, and local Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage. Likely the strongest potential Democrat and the party’s lone statewide officeholder, State Auditor Rob Sand, is already in the open Governor’s race.

The absence of Rep. Hinson in her 2nd CD would make the succeeding House race much more interesting. Already, four Democrats had announced their candidacy against Rep. Hinson including state Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque). A new Republican nominee would have some ground to make up and likely find themselves in a competitive toss-up general election race.

Of the eight open Senate races, both parties must defend four seats. It appears Democrats will have little trouble in holding Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin’s seat, though an expensive and hard fought primary is expected before the March 17 primary election.

The eventual Democratic nominee in Minnesota, and consensus candidate Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) from New Hampshire, have the inside track to holding their respective open seats to succeed retiring Sens. Tina Smith (D-MN) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH).

The Michigan open race to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D), will be hard fought and likely one of two premier national Senate races. GOP former Rep. Mike Rogers is becoming a consensus Republican candidate. The Democrats will have to maneuver through a competitive primary that won’t be decided until August among Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.

The open North Carolina campaign will be just as tough as Michigan’s, although in this case the general election participants are already known: former Governor Roy Cooper for the Democrats and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley.

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) is risking his seat to enter his state’s open Governor’s race, a gambit that appears to be a safe bet. In his wake, Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) and Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) will be the principal contenders in the open Senate contest with the primary victor becoming the prohibitive general election favorite.

Without Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear (D) in the open Kentucky Senate race, it appears a competitive Republican primary will determine outgoing former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R) successor. The leading contenders are former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron, Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington), and self-funding businessman Nate Morris.

Two other Senators are running for Governor – Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) – and possibly California’s Alex Padilla (D) joining them, but the trio are not risking their seats. All would be favored to win open Governor’s races, meaning each would appoint their own successors after assuming their new office.

Added to the eight open seat races portends a large number of freshman Senators being sworn into office at the beginning of 2027.

Utah Joins Redistricting Wars

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 29, 2025

Redistricting

Utah Congressional Districts (click on image to go to interactive map)

A new court decision has thrust another state to the forefront of the mid-decade redistricting battle that may be developing in as many as 11 states.

A Utah judge early this week issued a ruling that strikes down the state’s 4R-0D congressional map, saying the legislature did not have the right to usurp the citizens’ redistricting commission that voters approved via ballot proposition in 2018. The commission members crafted a congressional map in 2021 that the state legislature rejected and replaced with the current plan.

The ruling is curious in that the judge stated the Utah Constitution makes a vote of the people equal to that of a legislative action. Therefore, District Court Judge Dianna Gibson ruled that the legislature did not have the authority to change the Commission map but did not explain why the people’s vote then trumps legislative power if both are equal. Republicans will appeal to the State Supreme Court, though the high court previously allowed the original lawsuit to continue that resulted in Judge Gibson’s ruling.

The Commission map would likely cost the Republicans one seat since it created a Salt Lake City-anchored district that would presumably elect a Democrat. Like many redistricting battles, this one, too, has the potential of making its way to the US Supreme Court for a final decision.

Currently before the federal high court remains the Louisiana racial redistricting case. A ruling was expected before the end of June, but the justices instead postponed their decision and ordered additional oral arguments, now scheduled for Oct. 15. The court’s ultimate ruling could mean a Louisiana redraw before the 2026 election. If so, Alabama could also see a redraw since their redistricting situation is virtually identical to that of Louisiana.

The just-enacted Texas map already faces a racial gerrymandering lawsuit, this in an El Paso federal court. The Louisiana ruling could affect the new Texas map since the lawsuit grounds involve an alleged violation of the Voting Rights Act.

When the Ohio legislature returns to session in September after the summer break, a new congressional map will be drawn. Since the current plan, adopted in 2021, failed to pass the legislature with at least a three-fifths vote in each chamber, the map could only stand for two elections. Therefore, state law demands a new plan be crafted for the 2026 election and beyond.

Published reports indicate that redistricting is also being considered in Florida, Indiana, Maryland, Missouri, and New York. The referendum in California to usurp the citizens’ commission map and replace it with a published alternative will go to the voters in a Nov. 4 special election.

The Florida House Speaker has assembled a new redistricting committee, and Gov. Ron DeSantis indicates he favors attempting to draw a new map. Some believe the already strong Republican Florida map could yield two more seats.

Talks are underway in Indiana about undertaking redistricting. The GOP target here would be the state’s 1st District that Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-Highland/Gary) represents. In the past two elections, the Congressman recorded a pair of 53 percent victories.

Talk surfaced in Maryland, largely stemming from Gov. Wes Moore (D), that this state could attempt to eliminate the lone Republican district, but nothing concrete toward that end has yet happened.

Republicans are also making progress toward gaining the Kansas City-area district of Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D); moving forward in this situation appears likely.

Finally, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) also made public statements about redistricting retribution. Here too, however, a citizens’ commission is involved in the process. In 2021, even a Democratic court rejected the Democratic legislature’s map after the members found a way to usurp the commission plan. In the legislature’s map, the Republicans would have been relegated to four of 26 seats, which the court rejected.

While the Democrats could gain further seats in New York, the process of changing the current map may be too complicated to do so before the 2026 election.

As one can see, redistricting is a complex issue, and predicting what may happen next in any state’s process is always a difficult proposition.

Once Again, Ernst Polling Is Close

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025

Senate

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA)

In her two previous victorious Iowa US Senate races, Republican Joni Ernst defied the aggregate polling universe, and a new Public Policy Polling survey of the 2026 campaign suggests we may see this familiar pattern repeat.

As a whole in both 2014 and 2020, the pollster universe underestimated Ernst’s political strength and miscast her campaigns as being too close to call when they weren’t.

In Sen. Ernst’s first statewide election, running from her position as a state Senator, she defeated then-US Rep. Bruce Braley (D) by more than eight percentage points, or a full six points above her average polling lead according to the Real Clear Politics Polling Archives.

In her re-election bid from five years ago against Des Moines businesswoman Theresa Greenfield, Sen. Ernst headed into Election Day with just over a one point average edge, again according to the RCP Polling Archives, yet won with close to a seven-point cushion.

The new PPP Iowa poll (Aug. 18-19; 572 registered Iowa voters; live interview and text) finds Sen. Ernst with only toss-up leads over a series of largely unknown, from a statewide perspective, Democratic candidates.

According to the Public Policy Polling results, Sen. Ernst would lead state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), only 43-42 percent; she tops Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, 45-42 percent; and posts a pair of 45-41 percent advantages over local Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs).

In reviewing the Polling Archives from her two previous statewide races, we saw Sen. Ernst beginning well behind.

In 2014, against Braley, Sen. Ernst trailed in the first published poll – in July of 2013 and again according to PPP – by a 13 percentage point margin, 45-33. Over the course of the 2014 campaign, 45 statewide surveys were publicly released from 14 different pollsters.

Within the 45 poll universe, Sen. Ernst led in 19, but none among the first nine released surveys (down an average of 7.1 points). In the campaign’s closing stage, her average percentage lead was 2.3 from the six polls released during the Oct. 27 to Nov. 3 period, yet her actual victory margin over Braley was 8.5 percent.

In 2020, this time as the incumbent seeking her first re-election, we saw a similar pattern unfold. In the ’20 race, the Real Clear Polling Archives reports a total of 19 Iowa Senate race polls being released from nine different polling organizations beginning in early April of the election year.

The first released poll again came from PPP with a survey ending on May 1, 2020. It projected Sen. Ernst as having a 43-42 percent edge over Greenfield, the same percentage this new 2025 poll finds her leading opposite state Sen. Wahls.

Within the 19-poll universe that the RCP Polling Archives tracked in the 2020 campaign, Sen. Ernst led in only seven of the polls and trailed by an average of just under three percentage points through the period ending Oct. 24 (a total of 14 released polls). In the final five polls, during the Oct. 27 through Nov. 2 period, Sen. Ernst built an average polling point lead of only 1.4 according to the Archives’ calculations but won the race on Nov. 3 by 6.6 percent.

We saw similar polling underestimates in President Trump’s three Iowa campaigns. In 2016, again with data from the Polling Archives, 26 presidential polls were conducted in the Hawkeye State from Aug. 9, 2015 through Nov. 4, 2016. Within the 26-poll universe, Hillary Clinton led in 10 with four ties. Looking at the final three polls from Nov. 1 through Nov. 4, Trump led in two with an average three-poll lead of three percentage points. On Nov. 8, 2016, he carried Iowa with a 9.5 percent margin spread.

In 2020, though Trump would lose the national election, he again carried Iowa with a greater than predicted margin. In this election, 27 polls were conducted from the period of Feb. 2, 2020 through Nov. 2. The polling universe was better in this election, as they forecast Trump to be leading Joe Biden in 15 of the polls with three ties. In the final five polls from Oct. 27 through Nov. 2, he led in four of the surveys with an average edge of two percentage points. Again, his final margin on Nov. 3 was much larger: 8.5 points.

In 2024, Iowa polling became a point of national contention as the state’s pollster deemed most accurate, Selzer & Company, projected a Kamala Harris lead of three percentage points in a poll concluded on Oct. 31.

President Trump would carry the state on Nov. 5 by a 13.2 percent margin, meaning the Selzer miss was a whopping 16-plus points.

Only three presidential polls were released during the closing days of the Iowa 2024 cycle. The other two pollsters, Emerson College and Insider Advantage, were much closer to the final result (Trump plus-10 and plus-6, respectively), but even they underestimated the Republican strength.

While the early 2025 Public Policy Polling survey again depicts Sen. Ernst in a potentially close race, this is nothing new for her Iowa Senate campaigns. If polling history is any indication, the end result will likely tell a much different story.

Decision Time in Texas

(Click on map above to see full-size detail.)

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 27, 2025

Redistricting

Now that the new Texas redistricting map has been signed into law displaced Democratic incumbents and potential candidates are deciding where they will run.

In the Dallas area, a game of political musical chairs must be played. All three Texas Democrats who currently represent part of Dallas County no longer live in the district for which they will likely run.

It is probable that Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas), whose home is now in Rep. Marc Veasey’s (D-Ft. Worth) 33rd District, will still run in District 30, where almost 69 percent of her current constituency resides. By the same token, Rep. Veasey’s best opportunity is in District 33, but he loses all of his Ft. Worth and Tarrant County base. Only 33 percent of his current constituency lies in the new District 33.

The Dallas Democrat with the least favorable choices is freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch/Dallas). While 41 percent of her current constituency will reside in new District 32, that district now stretches into East Texas and becomes a Republican seat.

Almost one-third of her constituents move to District 33, but Rep. Johnson says she is looking at potentially challenging Republican Rep. Beth Van Duyne (R-Irving) in new District 24. Rep. Johnson sees only three percent of her current constituents landing in TX-24 but says a large portion of her former state House district is included. President Trump carried new CD-24 with a 57-41 percent margin, so Rep. Van Duyne, who finds 87 percent of her current district comprising the new 24th, remains in the driver’s seat for re-election.

Moving to Houston, veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) says he is surveying the new 18th District as a place to run. He would be paired with the winner of the current special election to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D), but the latter individual will only have two months to organize a primary campaign against Green after winning the special election.

Rep. Green’s 9th CD transforms into an eastern Harris County Republican seat, while none of his district will move to CD-18. Much of the current Green constituency, almost 44 percent, goes to Rep. Sylvia Garcia’s (D-Houston) 29th District, of which Garcia would represent only 37 percent of the new CD. Still, Green would be well known in the 18th, and not having to face another entrenched incumbent should be a favorable setup for the 77-year-old House member who was first elected in 2004.

Looking at Austin, Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) says he will not seek re-election rather than squaring off with fellow Democratic Rep. Greg Casar (D-Austin) in the new 37th CD. Mr. Doggett says he would seek re-election if the court restores the previous map.

In South Texas, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) sees a much different district, but one that he should like. Gone is the San Antonio portion of the current TX-28 seat where Cuellar experienced trouble in two close Democratic primary challenges. He is still under federal indictment with several charges for bribery, obviously a significant hurdle to overcome, while rumors still abound that he may switch parties. If he doesn’t, his likely opponent will be Webb County Judge (Executive) Tino Tijerina, who also hails from Cuellar’s home domain.

A major development affecting the South Texas seats occurred the other day when former Rep. Mayra Flores (R) indicated that she will move back to TX-34 to again challenge Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) in a re-match of the 2024 campaign that saw Gonzalez prevailing 51-49 percent. Earlier in the year, Flores said she would challenge Rep. Cuellar in District 28.

In a new 34th that now contains almost 40 percent new territory for Gonzalez and all coming from Rep. Michael Cloud’s (R-Victoria) Republican 27th District, the partisan lean of the newly configured TX-34 will favor a strong GOP candidate.

A lawsuit challenging the new map as a racial gerrymander will quickly be filed in an attempt to void the new districts. This will likely put further pressure upon the Supreme Court to finally rule on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case, which has now been scheduled for a second oral argument session on Oct. 15.

If the high court upholds the previous federal three judge panel ruling, then the Texas map will also likely stand and we would see re-draws forced in Louisiana and likely Alabama, which is in an identical situation to that of the Bayou State. In a related ruling, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the Galveston County case that affected the Texas minority districts and was the reason Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) added redistricting to the legislative special session.

With the Lone Star State candidate filing deadline set for Dec. 9 in conjunction with the March 3, 2026, primary election, much will happen in the political and legal arenas during the next few weeks.

Husted, Ramaswamy Lead in New Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 26, 2025

Senate

Republican Vivek Ramaswamy / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Both appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy (R) lead in a new statewide Ohio 2026 general election poll, and the data also contain some interesting ancillary results.

Emerson College conducted the new statewide Ohio poll (Aug. 18-19; 1,000 registered Ohio voters; 490 likely OH Republican primary voters; 383 likely Ohio Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the results project Sen. Husted leading former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), 50-44 percent. This is the first Senate survey released since Brown officially announced that he will make a political comeback.

In the Governor’s contest, Ramaswamy, the endorsed Ohio Republican Party candidate, leads former state Health Director Amy Acton (D) 49-39 percent, and former Congressman and ex-US Senate candidate Tim Ryan (D) 49-41 percent. Last week, Ryan said he would make a decision about entering the Governor’s race by the end of September.

President Trump’s job approval score was 49:42 positive to negative, with unsurprisingly almost all of the Republicans approving and a near unanimous Democratic segment disapproving. As part of the survey, Emerson then tested the personal approval index of nine Buckeye State public figures.

In the Senate race, appointed incumbent Husted’s favorability index is 33:28 positive to negative, while former Sen. Brown is better known but has a tighter favorable lean, 44:42.

Interestingly, the only one of the nine tested political personalities to post an upside-down personal rating was first-term Sen. Bernie Moreno (R) at 38:42. On the job approval score, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) also scored in negative territory, 32:40.

The political figure with the lowest unfavorable personal rating (17 percent), is Lt. Gov. Jim Tressel (R), the former Ohio State University head football coach. Tressel still has not completely ruled out running for Governor, but it appears highly unlikely that he will enter the statewide race.

Vice President and former Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance (R) posted a 48:43 percent favorability index, which also is the highest individual negative score of anyone tested but, again, the split is purely partisan with Republicans overwhelmingly favorable and Democrats viewing him unfavorably in virtually equal proportions.

To underscore the partisanship view, when asking this sample of Ohio Republican voters who they would favor to succeed President Trump in 2028, favorite son Vance was the overpowering choice, 55-9-7-6-4 percent over Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Ohio gubernatorial candidate Ramaswamy, and former UN Ambassador and 2024 presidential candidate Nikki Haley, respectively.

The Democratic sample was also polled regarding their next presidential preference. On this question it is California Gov. Gavin Newsom who placed first within the Democratic sample of 388 respondents, which is a low number for a state the size of Ohio. Irrespective of the potential sampling flaw, Newsom captured a 20 percent preference figure. Obviously, this is a very low number, but it is still tops among the tested potential candidates.

In what should be considered bad news for ex-US Transportation Secretary and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, he finished behind Newsom with only 15 percent support. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) was third with eight percent, followed by a three-way tie with seven percent apiece among Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), a two-time presidential candidate, former Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, and Minnesota Governor and 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz.

Sen. Sanders, referring to his age (he will be 87 years old during the 2028 campaign), is indicating that he will not run for President again. The Harris-Walz showing is particularly poor for the most recent presidential ticket nominees within a Democratic Party segment cell.