By Jim Ellis — Friday, October 30, 2026
US House
It appears three US House incumbents are in danger of losing their seats next week, though such defeats would not alter the chamber’s partisan division.
California Reps. Mike Thompson (D-St. Helena/Napa), Doris Matsui (D-Sacramento), and Jimmy Gomez (D-Los Angeles) all face serious opponents, but each is competing in a double-Democratic general election under the state’s all-party jungle primary system.
In District 4, which was significantly reshaped under the new redistricting plan, unusual developments are emerging in the race between veteran Rep. Thompson, who is seeking a 15th term, and tech entrepreneur Eric Jones. Jones curiously just released two internal surveys from different pollsters, both showing him running well ahead of the incumbent Congressman.
A Fulcrum Campaign Strategies poll (Oct. 18-20; 400 likely CA-4 general election voters) found Jones leading Rep. Thompson, 53-40 percent. A David Binder Research survey (Oct. 15-21; 600 likely CA-4 general election voters) produced a 45-35 percent ballot test again in Jones’ favor.
Both polls raise questions about why a 28-year incumbent would be performing so poorly in a district where his own political party remains dominant.
While the two candidates compete for a majority of the vote, ironically the largest remaining voter bloc, and one likely harboring negative opinions of both candidates, may prove decisive: the district’s 134,659 registered Republicans.
Jones initially moved left after the primary election but has since begun courting Republican voters. The top-finishing Republican in the June jungle primary, for example, has endorsed him, as have 10 other prominent Republicans whom Jones frequently highlights. Additionally, he has moderated his issue positions, even proposing a plan to exempt individuals earning less than $150,000 annually from paying federal income tax.
Though the polling may be somewhat skewed, there could be sufficient Jones momentum to produce an upset once California’s lengthy vote tabulation process concludes, a process that could last as long as 36 days after Election Day.
A warning sign for Rep. Thompson was his receiving only 41.0 percent of the jungle primary vote. Jones captured 22.2 percent, while six Republicans and one No Party Preference candidate combined for 36.8 percent. Within the Democratic vote, however, Rep. Thompson fared much better, winning 64.8 percent compared with Jones’ 35.2 percent. This is an encouraging sign for the Congressman, but it may be easier for Jones to attract non-Democratic voters if his outreach efforts continue to gain traction.
Rep. Matsui faces a different challenge. She finished behind her principal Democratic opponent, Sacramento City Councilwoman Mai Vang, in the jungle primary. In June, Vang placed first with 31.2 percent of the vote, compared with Matsui’s 29.1 percent.
Among voters who selected a Democratic candidate, the Congresswoman received only 46.1 percent support, a weak showing within her own party. In contrast, Vang garnered 49.5 percent of Democratic votes, while the remaining 4.4 percent was divided between two other Democratic contenders. The district’s two Republican candidates received a combined 77,664 votes, representing 37.0 percent of all ballots cast.
A further problem for Rep. Matsui is her poor primary performance in Sacramento County, the district’s dominant population center. There, she trailed Vang by more than 11,000 votes, an ominous sign heading into the general election.
If Rep. Matsui is to prevail on Tuesday, she will need to attract a substantial share of the district’s 135,432 registered Republicans. The district also contains 139,212 voters registered with minor parties or selected No Party Preference. Therefore, Rep. Matsui still has opportunities for growth among non-Democratic voters, since she is unlikely to secure majority support within her party.
Another California incumbent forced into a double-Democratic general election appears to be facing similar difficulties. Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Los Angeles) continues to trail Democratic challenger Angela Gonzales-Torres, a Highland Park Town Councilwoman, in public polling.
The latest 34th District survey, conducted by the University of Southern California’s Democracy and Fair Elections Lab (Oct. 16-24; 423 likely CA-34 general election voters), found Gonzales-Torres leading Rep. Gomez, 51-45 percent. It is the second consecutive poll showing the Congressman trailing.
Rep. Gomez, however, performed better in the jungle primary than either Reps. Thompson or Matsui, though he also failed to surpass the 50 percent threshold. In June, Gomez received 46.0 percent of the vote compared with Gonzales-Torres’ 30.7 percent.
Furthermore, Gomez is in a stronger position among Democrats. He won 53.9 percent of voters who selected a Democratic candidate in the primary. Gonzales-Torres’ challenge will be to maximize her support among the 235,598 registered voters who do not identify as Democrats.
While election night coverage will focus primarily on contests between Democrats and Republicans, these three double-Democratic California races will have compelling stories of their own. Though they will not affect partisan control of the House, all three districts have the potential to send new members to the 120th Congress.