Monthly Archives: April 2025

Democrats Win in Wisconsin;
Republicans Take Florida

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Elections

Wisconsin circuit judge Susan Crawford

Wisconsin — In the state Supreme Court regular election in Wisconsin, though nonpartisan on the ballot, Democrat circuit judge Susan Crawford easily defeated Republican former Attorney General Brad Schimel by a 55-45 percent margin to maintain the party’s 4-3 majority on the court. The ramifications of this victory could mean the new court will redraw the state’s congressional map, which would likely lead to a net loss of Republican seats.

The outcome in Wisconsin may be the most significant of all of last night’s election results. The Badger State supported President Donald Trump in the recent 2024 election, but it was the closest of all the swing states, yielding a victory margin of less than one percentage point in the 2024 election. On the other hand, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin was re-elected on that same night by a similarly slim vote spread.

The margin in the state Supreme Court race exceeded the published polls and was greater than expected. Having a clear majority in this hotly contested and expensive campaign will likely embolden the court to venture down a more partisan political path.

Should the Wisconsin high court judges decide to redraw the congressional districts under the partisan gerrymandering argument — before the 2024 election the court redistricted the state Assembly and Senate districts but not the congressional boundaries — the Republicans who would be most endangered appear to be Reps. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien).

Considering the results, it is probable that the Democratic base was more energized than the Republican, and Independents broke toward the Democrats, and significantly so in the Wisconsin situation. We also see further evidence that many Trump voters are only that and cannot necessarily be counted upon to turnout for Republican candidates without the President himself being on the ballot.

Turnout in all of the races last night was high. The Wisconsin turnout, of more than 2.3 million, or two-thirds of the number who voted in the 2024 presidential election, is high. In both of Florida’s congressional races, turnout exceeded 150,000 voters, and almost reached 200,000 in Florida’s 6th District, which is extremely high for special elections.

Florida — Despite what appeared to be the potential of a Democratic upset in Florida’s 6th Congressional District special election, resigned Republican state Sen. Randy Fine last night secured the congressional seat that National Security Advisor Mike Waltz (R) vacated to accept his Trump Administration position.

In the other Florida election, as expected, state CFO Jimmy Patronis held the seat from which former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) resigned. Since the far western Panhandle 1st Congressional District is the safest Republican seat in Florida, it was little surprise that Patronis won. As in FL-6, however, the Democratic nominee, athletic trainer Gay Valimont, outspent the winner. The victory percentages, both in the 57 percent range, were well under President Trump’s performance in both districts.

In the FL-6 seat, while Sen. Fine was being out-raised early by a 10:1 margin, the Republican apparatus expended major resources and increased the early vote operation. The GOP advantage was approximately 10,000 votes when combining the mail and in-person early votes. This gave Fine the cushion he needed to secure the election with voters who cast their ballot at the polls. In the end, Fine would win with a margin of more than 27,000 votes.

While the analysis will claim this is a Republican under-performance victory, it is important to remember that Fine represented — before his resignation under Florida’s resign to run law — a state Senate seat more than 100 miles from the heart of CD-6, with no common constituents between the two districts. Therefore, he began the election with no previously established base.

This, plus having to overcome $10 million-plus in expenditures potentially accounts for a somewhat diminished margin as opposed to voters expressing dissatisfaction with the Trump Administration.

The 1st District is significantly more Republican than the 6th, so in reality the Patronis 57 percent victory is actually a greater underperformance than that of Fine. Here too, however, we see a Republican who does not live in the district being outspent and in this case the Democratic message appears stronger. Valimont was concentrating on services that should be brought to the district, such as a VA hospital, as opposed to Fine’s opponent, educator Josh Weil, who campaigned as an admitted socialist and referred to himself as “a bad-ass teacher.”

A Questionable Texas Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Senate

Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

A new Texas statewide poll shows Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in a hypothetical Senate Republican primary, but the survey contains several flaws.

Lake Research and Slingshot Strategies partnered on a poll for the Texas Public Opinion Research organization (reported only as March 2025; 700 registered Texas voters) and though the study was designed predominantly to test issues and attitudes, the ballot test between Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton, showing the incumbent trailing the challenger 38-27 percent before a Republican vote segment, cannot be considered reliable.

First, there is no indication as to how many people were surveyed as “Republican primary voters” because there is no number disclosure of self-identified Republicans. Using the percentages answering the partisan identification question means the segment cell could possibly only contain a maximum of 315 respondents, which would be very low for a statewide survey in a place the size of Texas.

Secondly, the pollsters did not test the entire proposed GOP field. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) was not included on the ballot question even though he has been firmer in statements about running for the Senate than has Paxton.

Third, the data gathering period was not identified, nor was the data collection method, the latter meaning live interview, Interactive Voice Response system, text, or online. Without this information, it is difficult to detect a proper error factor.

Fourth, a four-term Senate incumbent attracting only 28 percent within his own party on a ballot test is hard to believe, and likely wholly understated, though the Paxton support figure of 38 percent could be about right.

Fifth, the pollsters exhibited a somewhat liberal bias with regard to the types of questions asked and the descriptive language used, especially when describing the abortion question. The query asked respondents if they identify as pro-choice or anti-choice. Certainly, the anti-choice option would receive less support than if described as pro-life.

The favorability index question responses were also curious especially relating to Sen. Cornyn. In fact, of the 11 individuals and institutions queried for a favorable or unfavorable rating, Sen. Cornyn finished dead last (21:43 percent). Again, it is difficult to find credible that a scandal-free elected official who has won six statewide elections (four for US Senate; one for state Attorney General; one for Texas Supreme Court) would perform so badly.

Of all 11 people tested, former Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred, the only Democratic politician on the list, finished with the strongest favorability rating, 37:30 percent positive to negative. Allred is the only tested individual or institution to finish with a positive rating even though he lost the Senate race this past November to GOP incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz by almost nine percentage points.

In contrast, both President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance are three points down (Trump: 47:50 percent; Vance: 44:47 percent), yet the Trump-Vance ticket carried the state by almost 14 percentage points.

For his part, AG Paxton scored a 35:40 percent index, which is not particularly bad considering he came within a few state Senate votes of being removed from office in 2023. Again, an argument can be made against the Lake/Slingshot reliability factor when seeing an elected official who was almost removed from office largely by members of his own party (at least in the State House of Representatives) enjoying a better standing within the electorate than a sitting incumbent with no personal scandal who has been elected six times to statewide office.

It will be interesting to see if Paxton ultimately decides to run. While his performance in this Lake/Slingshot poll is stronger than Sen. Cornyn’s, which would encourage him, fundraising under the federal election system will not.

Gone would be the days when a contender could call selected donors and receive major contributions sometimes totaling seven figures as he or she can under Texas election law. Running for Senate, Paxton will have to fund raise in small increments: $3,500 per election, or a grand total of $10,500, if someone wanted to fully support him in the Republican primary, the Republican runoff (if necessary), and the general election.

While certain individuals might contribute large dollars to a Super PAC supporting Paxton or opposing Cornyn, they would have no control over how the money is spent. Furthermore, contributing to an incumbent, as many big donors did for Paxton when he was AG, is much different than contributing major dollars against an incumbent, especially one that many of these same prospective donors have also supported in past campaigns.

Considering Texas will hold its primaries on March 3, 2026, this election campaign will soon be swinging into high gear.