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By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 3, 2025
Redistricting
If Wisconsin congressional redistricting occurs later this year as a result of Tuesday’s state Supreme Court election, which current House members will be most affected?
Now that Democrats have won the high court election in the person of Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford (D), expect the new panel members to eventually position themselves to redraw the state’s congressional districts.
Though redistricting is supposed to be completed just once a decade after a decennial census, we have seen many court decisions forcing mid-decade redraws of congressional or state legislative district boundaries. It has now gotten to the point, as it did in the last two Wisconsin state Supreme Court election battles, that some judicial candidates even add the redistricting issue to their campaign agenda.
In the Wisconsin instance, the court will likely rule that the state’s 6R-2D congressional map is a partisan gerrymander. Judge Crawford stated during the campaign that she believes the districts should be redrawn, thus creating two more Democratic seats. Proponents of this line of reasoning suggest that because the statewide vote count is routinely a toss-up in the state, the congressional map should be a reflection of the typical statewide voting trend.
Before the 2024 election, the Wisconsin court, again with a 4-3 Democratic majority, redrew the boundaries of both the state Assembly and Senate using a similar partisan gerrymandering argument. The change resulted in Democrats gaining a net 10 seats in the Assembly and four in the Senate. Though the new map severely altered the partisan complexion, Republicans still maintained their majorities in both houses.
Curiously, the court did not simultaneously change the congressional map as many believed they would. Some analysts surmised that the underlying reason for not redrawing the federal plan was the US Senate race.
At the time of the legislative redraws, it appeared Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin would draw an easy opponent and secure a third term. Yet, if the congressional lines were redrawn, it would have been probable that Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville), who already had well over $3 million in his federal campaign account at the time, would jump into the Senate race if his 1st Congressional District was drawn to elect a Democrat.
If this was the surprising reason for leaving the congressional map untouched, it was likely a prudent partisan move. Ultimately, what appeared at the outset to be a strong run for Baldwin turned into a very tight battle as underestimated candidate Eric Hovde (R) managed to run a viable campaign and came within nine-tenths of one percentage point of unseating the Senator. It is reasonable to believe that an opponent such as Rep. Steil, who would have been taken seriously from the beginning, might have attracted more support than Hovde and won the seat.
With no 2026 Wisconsin Senate race, a federal statewide campaign will not be a factor. The Governor’s office, on the other hand, is on the ballot. Gov. Tony Evers (D) has won two close gubernatorial campaigns and looks to be preparing to run for a third time. Changing the congressional map could force a displaced Congressman to move into the Governor’s race, thus making the incumbent’s re-election path more difficult.
Assuming the court moves forward with a redraw, who will be the likely targets? The answer lies in the southern and western parts of the state where Reps. Steil and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) already hold competitive political districts.
According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, Rep. Steil’s 1st District has a partisan lean of 49.4R – 48.3D. Rep. Van Orden’s district is similarly tight, though Democrats already have a slight edge on the same partisan lean scale, 48.9D – 48.5R. Businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D), who held Rep. Van Orden to a 51-49 percent victory margin last November has already said that she will return for a 2026 re-match.
To the west of Rep. Steil’s southern 1st District and to the east of Rep. Van Orden’s CD-3, lies the Madison anchored 2nd District of Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Town of Vermont). WI-2’s partisan lean is 69.7D – 28.2R, which means this district could easily shed Democrats to District 3 without endangering Rep. Pocan’s future re-elections.
A similar situation exists in Rep. Steil’s situation. To the north of his district is Rep. Gwen Moore’s (D-Milwaukee) 4th CD. The partisan lean here is 73.6D – 24.2R. This is the state’s coalition minority seat. A combined total of all minorities pushes their Voting Age Population number to 52.9 percent, so there are plenty of Democratic votes that could be transferred to the 1st.
Obviously, more Republican voters from the 1st would be shifted to the 4th, and the same from the 3rd to the 2nd. The map would be more competitive for both Reps. Pocan and Moore, but their districts won’t be changed to the point of making either vulnerable to the point of losing.
The remaining five seats are all heavily Republican, and while Rep. Scott Fitzgerald’s (R-Clyman) 5th CD could be changed as part of the partisan swap among the aforementioned, it probably will continue to remain as a safely Republican seat. It is probable that the state’s northern districts, 6, 7, and 8, those of Reps. Glenn Grothman (R-Glenbeulah), Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua), and Tony Wied (R-De Pere/Green Bay), won’t fundamentally change.
This is only one possible scenario of a redistricting order that could take many forms. Expect Republicans to put up a major fight, and they will have some potential maneuvers in their legal quivers, but the partisan nature of this particular court suggests a new congressional redistricting plan is on the Wisconsin political horizon.
