By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 7, 2025
Senate
New Hampshire Congressman Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) / Photo by Tim Pierce, Flickr
New Hampshire Congressman Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) announced late last week that he will run statewide next year. He is hoping to succeed Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), who made public her retirement intention on March 12.
Rep. Pappas should have an unencumbered path to securing the Democratic nomination. Freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) has indicated an interest in the Senate seat but so far has made no discernible move to organize a campaign and would risk the House seat she just won in November. Rep. Pappas getting in early certainly increases the chances of him quickly becoming a consensus party standard bearer.
The Pappas move could lead to an open general election between him and former Gov. Chris Sununu (R). Previously saying he has little interest in running for the Senate, Sununu, who left office in January after serving four consecutive two-year terms, has made more conciliatory statements about a 2026 Senate run but has also taken no firm organizational steps. Early polling showed the former Governor holding a substantial lead over Rep. Pappas.
Should Sununu not run, we can expect a crowded Republican primary field to form with Pappas becoming the front runner for the general election regardless of whom the GOP voters choose as their Senate nominee.
Possible Republican candidates include former Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire Senate nominee Scott Brown (lost to Shaheen, 51-48 percent), ex-state Senate President and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse, and current appointed New Hampshire Education Commissioner Frank Edelblut.
There is a good chance the state’s traditional September primary, one of the latest in the country, will move to an earlier date. Legislation is pending that would move the primary to either June, as Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) supports, or August. Both months would give the eventual general election nominees more time to campaign before the November vote.
Rep. Pappas, now serving his fourth term, would leave a competitive open House seat, which will likely become hotly contested in the next general election. From 2004 until Pappas was elected in 2018, New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District electorate defeated more incumbents than any other CD nationally.
In fact, during that 14-year period, the sitting incumbent was re-elected only once because then-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) kept trading the seat with Republican Frank Guinta. In his four election victories here, Pappas has averaged 52.8 percent of the vote.
We can expect both parties to host crowded 1st District nomination primaries and fight to a close general election result. The 2024 Republican nominee, former New Hampshire Executive Councilor and ex-state Sen. Russell Prescott who lost 52-45 percent, says he would consider launching another campaign. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt (R), who challenged Rep. Pappas in 2022 and lost 54-46 percent, said she will not run for the House next year.
The 1st District is the state’s eastern congressional seat, and includes all of Stafford County, almost all of Belknap and Carroll, and parts of Hillsborough, Merrimack, and Rockingham counties. The biggest population centers are the Manchester metropolitan area and the cities and towns that comprise the state’s Seacoast region. The 1st is slightly more Republican than the state’s western 2nd District.
The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 53.1R – 44.1D partisan lean, but the constituency tends to vote more Democratic in federal elections than this stat projects. The Down Ballot political data organization ranks NH-1 as the 12th most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference.
With Pappas leaving the House, it means that six seats would be considered open for the next election, with three coming from each party.
Aside from Pappas’s New Hampshire seat, the AZ-7 and TX-18 Democratic districts will be filled in special elections due to the passing of Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) and Sylvester Turner (D-Houston). Republicans Andy Biggs (R-AZ-5), Byron Donalds (R-FL-19), and John Rose (R-TN-6) are all announced gubernatorial candidates from their respective states.