Monthly Archives: May 2025

Early House Vulnerables

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 30, 2025

House

The Trump influence / Photo by Gage Skidmore

There will be a considerable number of contested US House seats in the 2026 election cycle, and the watch list begins with the members who won either election or re-election in a district where the electorate voted for the opposite party’s presidential candidate.

There are 16 such districts; 13 that President Trump carried while a Democrat won the House race, and three opposites; that is, districts where Kamala Harris proved victorious, but a Republican clinched the House campaign.

Today, we take a glimpse at the early races in the ticket-splitting seats where a clear general election campaign is already developing.

In terms of the Trump performance, the President carried 230 of the 435 US House districts in the 2024 election cycle. It is not until we reach Trump’s 197th-strongest seat do we see a Democrat win in a CD where the President prevailed.

• Though Trump scored a 53-44 percent victory in Maine’s 2nd District, Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) survived a close re-election battle with then-state Representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault (R) with 50.3 percent of the vote.

In 2026, it appears that Golden will face former two-term Gov. Paul LePage (R) in what promises to be a national congressional campaign. Rep. Golden has won four consecutive elections in the 2nd CD, but Gov. LePage has also carried the seat in all three of his gubernatorial runs.

• Turning to northern California’s 13th District, Republican incumbent John Duarte fell to Democrat Adam Gray by just 187 votes even with President Trump recording a victory margin of almost six percentage points. In 2026, Republicans are coalescing around Ceres Mayor Javier Lopez, who earned an endorsement from former Rep. Duarte when the defeated member announced that he would not return for a re-match.

• North Carolina’s 1st District was significantly changed in the 2023 redistricting plan and therefore will again be competitive in 2026. GOP candidate Laurie Buckhout, who held Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill/Rocky Mount) to a 49.5 – 47.8 percent re-election victory, accepted a Trump Administration appointment and will not run for Congress next year.

The Buckhout decision sets the stage for Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson (R) to make a return appearance and become an early consensus candidate. Roberson ran for the seat in 2022 but lost the Republican primary.

• Texas veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) survived his re-election campaign against a weak Republican candidate even with a federal indictment hanging over his head and President Trump scoring a 53.2 – 45.9 percent victory within the district confines.

Former Congresswoman Mayra Flores (R), who twice lost to Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) in the neighboring 34th District, announced that she will switch districts next year to challenge Rep. Cuellar. With a changing district and Flores as the GOP nominee (though she faces a Republican primary with, so far, only minor opponents), this district will attract more national attention in 2026.

• The most pro-Kamala Harris seat to elect a Republican Congressman is found in Omaha, Nebraska. While Harris clinched the 2nd District with a 51.6 – 47.0 percent victory margin, Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) was able to secure a fifth term with a 50.9 percent win. Bacon says he is undecided about whether to seek re-election in 2026.

Democrats are looking for another candidate to replace twice-defeated former state Sen. Tony Vargas, so we could see much change coming here in preparation for next year’s election. Regardless of who becomes the eventual party nominees, NE-2 will host a hotly contested race and is most likely the top Democratic national conversion opportunity.

• New York Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) is contemplating a gubernatorial run, and a crowd of Democrats are lining up for what promises to be a bruising nomination battle. Six Democrats, two of whom are local elected officials, have already announced their candidacies. The Republican leadership and President Trump are encouraging Rep. Lawler to remain in the 17th District campaign.

• Moving southward from New York to Pennsylvania, Democratic leaders want to replace twice-defeated 1st District nominee Ashley Ehasz who lost to Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) 56-44% last November even though Kamala Harris was carrying the seat with a slight 49.7 to 49.4 percent margin. Look for Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie to become a consensus Democratic candidate.

The other races in this category are still developing. The remaining Democratic incumbents who won Trump districts and can expect tough re-election campaigns are:

  • Josh Harder (CA-9)
  • Kristen McDonald Rivet (MI-8)
  • Susie Lee (NV-3)
  • Nellie Pou (NJ-9)
  • Gabe Vasquez (NM-2)
  • Tom Suozzi (NY-3)
  • Marcy Kaptur (OH-9)
  • Vicente Gonzalez (TX-34)
  • Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-3)

Georgia Republican Senate Candidates Closing in on Sen. Jon Ossoff

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 29, 2025

Senate

Georgia Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff

A recently released Cygnal survey research firm poll finds the Republican Senate candidate pool pulling closer to Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), and the two best available performers aren’t yet in the race.

The Cygnal poll (May 15-17; 800 likely Georgia voters; live interview & text) projects that Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) runs slightly ahead of Sen. Ossoff, 44.3 to 44.1 percent. Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) appears next strongest, trailing the incumbent, 45.7 – 44.3 percent. Neither, however, are announced Senate candidates.

Secretary Raffensperger, who was the focal point of the 2020 vote fraud claim controversy in the presidential race, could seek re-election. He has also publicly contemplated entering the open Governor’s race but has been relatively silent about launching a bid against Sen. Ossoff.

Rep. Collins has been listed as a potential Senate candidate since the beginning of the prognostication discussion, and he is still considered as a possible statewide contender.

Another potential Republican candidate, but one unlikely to run, is former US Senator and current Small Business Administration Director Kelly Loeffler. She also does well in the Cygnal poll, trailing Ossoff just 46.3 – 42.8 percent.

The announced candidates fall into the same close polling realm. Sen. Ossoff would lead Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), 46.0 – 42.1 percent, while state Agriculture Commissioner John King falls behind the Senator by a closer 44.7 – 42.1 percent.

This set of polls is much different from what we have previously seen in the early going. Before, Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who recently announced he would not run for Senate, polled slightly ahead of Ossoff, but the others were substantially behind. Therefore, the new Cygnal poll, from a frequent Georgia pollster, marks a significant improvement for the lesser known GOP candidates and potential contenders.

For example, the April Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll (May 15-24; 1,000 registered Georgia voters) found Sen. Ossoff leading Commissioner King, 51-38 percent. A January WPA Intelligence survey (Jan. 14-15; 500 likely Georgia voters) posted Ossoff leading King, 47-31 percent and 45-32 percent over Rep. Carter.

The Tyson Group also polled the Georgia Senate race in January (Jan. 30-31; 600 likely Georgia voters) and reported Gov. Kemp leading Sen. Ossoff, 49-42 percent. They also tested Rep. Carter and found Ossoff rebounding to lead 47-32 percent. The Trafalgar Group, in their April poll (April 24-27; 1,426 likely Georgia voters; multiple sampling techniques), saw Sen. Ossoff running ahead of Rep. Collins by a closer 47.5 – 42.8 percent margin.

The Trafalgar Group also released Republican primary numbers from last month’s results. At the time, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome), who later announced that she would not enter the Senate race, led the group with 42.7 percent of the likely Republican primary voters. Raffensperger was second with 22.0 percent, followed by Rep. Collins’ 15.0 percent support. Rep. Carter drew 13.1 percent, potential candidate Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee) posted 5.3 percent, and Commissioner King trailed with only 2.0 percent preference.

While certain states, adjacent North Carolina being a prime example, see routine polling inaccuracies that usually involve an under-poll for Republican candidates, the 2024 Georgia data produced sound projections.

According to the Real Clear Politics Polling Archives, the past six Georgia presidential polls all saw the race coming down to a one point margin. The final Atlas Intel (Nov. 3-4) survey predicted the correct margin, a two-point victory for President Trump. This most recent polling track record is a clear improvement for Georgia polling methodologies because the group of participating pollsters largely missed the 2020 Georgia presidential and 2022 Senate races.

The Republican nomination field is expected to be large, meaning the May 19 GOP Senate primary will likely advance to a late June runoff between the eventual top two finishers. Once a Republican nominee is chosen (Sen. Ossoff is expected to be unopposed for the Democratic nomination) the Peach State political fireworks will then consume the remaining five months of the ’26 election cycle.

The Georgia race promises to be one of the most hotly contested battleground Senate campaigns of the 2026 election cycle. It is clearly the Republicans’ best chance to convert a Democratic seat, so the party will be all-in here, regardless of which Republican will ultimately challenge Sen. Ossoff.

NY Poll: Hochul and Stefanik in
Dead Heat in Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Governor

NY Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) struggling in polls.

NY Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) struggling in polls.

A political survey that the New York Post recently covered found Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) drawing into a virtual general election tie with New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) according to the study’s ballot test result.

No major Republican or Democratic candidate with the exception of the incumbent has yet announced for Governor. Yet, the data consistently shows that Rep. Stefanik, who was nominated as US Ambassador to the United Nations but withdrawn when it became evident that taking her from the House could have potentially cost the Republicans effective control of the legislative chamber, fares the best of any potential GOP contender against the politically vulnerable Governor.

Gov. Hochul also could face a contested Democratic primary. Both Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado and Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) have indicated they are considering launching a primary challenge to the Governor.

The co/efficient survey research firm conducted their New York poll in early May (May 1-2; 1,163 likely New York voters; live interview & text) and the results showed Gov. Hochul holding only a 43-42 percent lead over Rep. Stefanik, meaning a virtual dead heat. In a hypothetical Republican primary, co/efficient sees Stefanik leading Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R), 56-9-8 percent. The Hochul job approval number stood at 44:46 percent favorable to unfavorable.

Siena College also released a poll conducted about two weeks later than the co/efficient study (May 12-15; 805 registered New York voters; live interview & text). The Hochul job approval score was in the same realm as co/efficient found, though slightly more positive. The Siena job approval index found the Governor in positive territory at 50:46 percent, though her personal approval is wholly consistent with the co/efficient job approval score of 44:46 percent positive to negative.

Though Siena did not test general election pairings, the pollsters did ask whether the respondent believes Gov. Hochul should be replaced. A total of 82 percent of Republicans and 64 percent of Independents said they prefer “someone else” to be the state’s next Governor. Even among Democrats, her standing is tepid. Only a bare majority of 51 percent said they are “prepared to re-elect her.”

Siena asked primary ballot test questions for both parties. While co/efficient found Rep. Stefanik holding a large lead in the GOP field, as referenced above, Siena sees a more competitive contest. According to this poll, Stefanik’s lead over Rep. Lawler and County Executive Blakeman was 35-22-11 percent, respectively.

On the Democratic side, Gov. Hochul maintains a substantial lead, but she remains below 50 percent even on the primary ballot test. Siena’s latest results project her holding a 46-12-10 percent advantage over Delgado and Torres.

While this margin is wide, it does suggest that her facing only one opponent could lead to an aggressive primary challenge. If both enter, Hochul would very likely win because the anti-incumbent vote would be split. Since New York recognizes plurality elections – New York City is using the Ranked Choice Voting system, but the state has not adopted the procedure – Hochul would prevail as the first-place finisher.

At this point, it appears likely that Rep. Stefanik will enter the Governor’s race since the early signs surrounding her proposed candidacy are relatively positive. Such is not the case for Rep. Lawler. He, therefore, will likely remain in the House race and enter what promises to be a hotly contested national congressional re-election campaign.

Without Lawler in the Governor’s race, it is possible that Blakeman would run and attempt to upset Stefanik in a one-on-one campaign, even though the early indicators heavily favor the Congresswoman for the party nomination.

On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Delgado and Rep. Torres would likely need to form an alliance, with only one challenging Gov. Hochul, for either to have a chance. If both enter the race, the prognostication would greatly favor a Hochul renomination. If one of the two challenges Gov. Hochul, such would yield a competitive Democratic primary campaign to be decided in late June of 2026.

Regardless of the nomination outcomes for both parties, it is probable that we will see a major general election New York gubernatorial campaign develop. While the state’s voting history clearly points to another Democratic victory in November of 2026, this race is likely to become much more interesting than would a typical New York statewide campaign.

Senate: Early Open Seat Observations

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Senate

Senator and former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville

It appears that Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) will announce his campaign for Governor at some point this week.

Tuberville’s doing so will make the Alabama seat the sixth open Senate race for the 2026 election cycle, joining Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

Sen. Tuberville’s move toward the Governor’s contest looks ever more secure since Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth (R) announced late last week that he will not run. Earlier this month, his statements led observers to believe that he would be the only Republican willing to challenge the Senator in the Republican gubernatorial primary.

Previously, Ainsworth reiterated that he would not run for the Senate, making it clear that his eyes were on the Governorship. Therefore, his announcement of not running for Governor is quite surprising but likely a testament to Tuberville’s strength within the Republican base.

In the open Senate race, we can expect to see a crowded Republican field, but possibly only one major candidate on the Democratic side. While a Republican House member may or may not jump into the Senate skirmish, several state officials are likely to do so.

For the Democrats, former US Senator Doug Jones, who Sen. Tuberville unseated in 2020 with a 60-40 percent victory margin, is indicating that he is considering either entering the Senate or Governor’s race next year. With Tuberville headed to the Governor’s campaign, it is probable that Jones, if he decides to again run for office, will attempt to regain his Senate seat since that race will be open.

Three of the open Senate seats are already stabilizing. At the outset, the races in Illinois and Minnesota appear similar. Here, we see Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Tina Smith (D-MN) retiring, leaving hotly contested Democratic primaries in their wake. Republicans, on the other hand, don’t see a major candidate surfacing right now in either campaign.

The Illinois Democratic primary will be decided on March 17. The contest features two US House members, Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) and Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), along with Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton.

The Lieutenant Governor won endorsements from Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and the state’s junior Senator, Tammy Duckworth (D). Yet, Stratton and Rep. Kelly largely share the same major constituency, the Black community, and even hail from similar locations in the Chicago area. Therefore, the two have a high probability of splitting the same vote pool. Rep. Krishnamoorthi had almost $20 million in his campaign account at the end of the first quarter and may have better potential to attract downstate votes. In any event, this will be an interesting early race.

In Minnesota, with former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen already dropping out of the Democratic race, the contest, likely to be decided in an August primary, is already evolving into a close two-way affair between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).

Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) retiring after seven terms will leave this seat with a new occupant for the first time since 1985. Republicans are headed to a May primary battle between former Attorney General and 2023 GOP gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington).

The big unanswered question, however, is whether Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) will enter the race. He has won two statewide campaigns, including defeating Cameron in the 2023 general election. If the Governor runs for Senate, the open race becomes very much in play. Should he only focus on running for President in 2028, the eventual GOP nominee should have an easy walk in the general election.

The New Hampshire Senate race is already evolving into a general election contest even before state legislators decide if they will move the September primary to an earlier date.

Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is quickly uniting the Democratic Party behind his candidacy and looks to become a consensus candidate. He will have the advantage in November likely over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R), who is moving toward again locking down the GOP nomination. In 2014, he held Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) to a 51-48 percent re-election victory.

Finally, the Michigan race looks to be the one toss-up open Senate race. Republican former Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers returns for another shot but may have to win a Republican primary against Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland).

The Wolverine States Democrats are for sure headed to a contested primary. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) are already in the race, while term-limited Attorney General Dana Nessel may soon join the field. The 2024 general election was decided by just 19,006 votes, and it would not be surprising to see a similar result occur in 2026.

Rep. Gerry Connolly Passes Away

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 23, 2025

US House

Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly passed away Wednesday, May 21, 2025.

Veteran Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA) passed away yesterday after an extensive battle with cancer. He is the third member to die since the beginning of the current Congress.

At the end of April, Connolly announced that his cancer had returned and that he would not seek re-election and step down as Ranking Minority Member of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee. At the beginning of the current Congress, he easily defeated Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) to win the committee leadership position.

Because Rep. Connolly had already announced his retirement, a campaign was already forming to succeed him in the 2026 election. Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville) are viewed as the leading candidates for the impending regular election. It is assumed both will enter the special election that Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) will call for what is now a vacant 11th Congressional District.

Others will likely enter, though some key potential candidates, such as former state House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn (D) and state Sen. Jennifer Boysko (D-Herndon), indicated in the days prior to Connolly’s death that they will support Supervisor Walkinshaw for the federal position.

Gov. Youngkin will likely schedule the special election for a period around Labor Day. The 11th CD is heavily Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 67.2D – 30.7R), so the eventual party nominee is virtually assured of assuming the seat.

Virginia’s congressional district political party organizations have the power to determine their own nomination process. This means the local leadership and party organization members can choose to hold a regular primary election, a “firehouse primary”, which means a vote with very few polling places in the district, or conduct a nominating convention with local delegates.

Democrats typically favor regular primaries, while Republican committees generally opt for a convention or the firehouse primary option.

Rep. Connolly was first elected to the House in 2008, after serving six years as the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors chairman. He originally won the Board’s Providence District seat in 1994.

The House Democratic Conference is now reduced to 212 members since Rep. Connolly is the third Democratic member to pass away this year. The other two were Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) and Sylvester Turner (D-TX). Special elections for the previous two vacant districts are scheduled for late September (Arizona) and early November (Texas), the latter being concurrent with the regular local election schedule.

Virginia’s 11th District is located wholly within Fairfax County and houses Fairfax City in the Washington, DC suburbs. The district begins at the Maryland border and includes the Tysons Corner community at its eastern border. The 11th hosts the Reston and Herndon communities through which it stretches to Dulles Airport, and then moves south to add the Centreville, Springfield, Burke, and Lorton communities.

The Down Ballot political blog prognosticators rank the VA-11 seat as the 81st safest Democratic seat in the party conference. President Joe Biden carried the district with a 66-31 percent margin in 2024, and a 70-29 percent spread in 2020.

Connolly was born in Boston, Massachusetts in 1950. He was 75 years old.

Maine Rep. Golden to Seek Re-Election

Campaign ad by Rep. Jared Golden

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 22, 2025

US House

Maine’s four-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston), amid speculation that he might run for Governor or possibly the Senate against his former boss, Sen. Susan Collins (R), announced that he will seek a fifth term in the House next year.

Earlier in the year, Rep. Golden was circumspect about his political plans not only acknowledging that he was considering a statewide bid, but also that he might retire outright from elective politics.

Next year, it appears he will face former two-term Gov. Paul LePage (R), who again returned from living in Florida to announce for public office in Maine. In 2022, LePage unsuccessfully challenged Gov. Janet Mills (D). Earlier this month, LePage announced that he would enter the 2nd Congressional District race next year.

Rep. Golden had a close call in 2024, winning a Ranked Choice Voting re-election with only 50.3 percent of the vote over retired NASCAR driver and then-state Rep. Austin Theriault. It was presumed that Theriault would run again, but he has since stated that he will not and endorsed LePage. The former Governor carried the 2nd District in all of his gubernatorial runs, even in ‘22 when he lost the statewide count to Gov. Mills by 13 percentage points.

Maine’s 2nd District encompasses most of the state’s geographic area and has the largest land mass of any CD east of the Mississippi River. ME-2 is also the most Republican seat in the nation that elects a Democrat to the House of Representatives. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the 2nd has a 52.9R – 41.2D partisan lean. President Trump has carried the 2nd District in all three of his national runs, winning the last two races with percentage margins of 53-44 percent (2024) and 52-45 percent (2020).

With Rep. Golden out of the Governor’s race, Democrats will still see a crowded open primary since Gov. Mills is ineligible to seek a third term. Those party members officially announced for Governor include Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, businessman Angus King, III, son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), and former state Senate President Troy Jackson, who hails from Maine’s far northern tier. Expected to soon enter is former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland).

For the Republicans, former Assistant US Secretary of State Bobby Charles, ex-local official Robert Wessels, and businessman Owen McCarthy are the announced candidates.

Despite the Republican trends exhibited in the 2nd CD, Rep. Golden has been able to prevail in his House races, partially due to the Ranked Choice Voting system, which applies for Maine’s federal races and primaries outside of the national presidential campaign. Counting the post-RCV rounds as his final tally, Rep. Golden has averaged 51.7 percent of the cumulative vote for his entire congressional career.

With the House partisan division at 220R – 215D, counting the two vacant Democratic seats that will be filled later in the year, Maine’s 2nd District, with its favorable Republican voting history outside of the US House race, will become a major national GOP conversion target. Any seat the Republicans can gain from the Democratic column will go a long way toward sustaining the party’s small majority.

The Golden-LePage race is guaranteed to be close with both candidates being popular with the 2nd District constituency. Winning this race could well be a precursor to which party clinches the next US House majority.