By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 11, 2025
Texas
Ken Paxton / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr
The move had been expected, but the wild card in the race appears to be US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). The Congressman is reportedly going to disclose raising $1.5 million in first quarter 2025 on his Federal Election Commission filing that is due April 15.
A Super PAC has spent seven figures on positive biography ads about Rep. Hunt throughout the state except for his hometown of Houston. All of this suggests he is planning to enter the Senate race, thus forcing a three-way major candidate contest.
The Cornyn campaign quickly responded to the Paxton announcement on social media saying, “Ken Paxton is a fraud. He talks tough on crime and then lets crooked progressive Lina Hidalgo off the hook. He says his impeachment trial was a sham but he didn’t contest the facts in legal filings, which will cost the state millions. He says he’s anti-woke but he funnels millions of taxpayer dollars to lawyers who celebrate DEI. And Ken claims to be a man of faith but uses fake Uber accounts to meet his girlfriend and deceive his family.”
Paxton attacks Sen. Cornyn as not being a strong supporter of President Donald Trump, and retaliated in his Fox News interview saying, “it’s time that we have another great Senator that will actually stand up and fight for Republican values, fight for the values of the people of Texas and also support Donald Trump in the areas that he’s focused on in a very significant way.”
Interestingly, should Hunt enter the race, he could indirectly help Cornyn. Since he and Paxton would likely draw from the same conservative rural constituencies that represent the heart of Texas’ Trump Country, a large portion of the anti-Cornyn vote would be split. Sen. Cornyn does well in the metro areas during the GOP primaries, so opponents dividing the anti-incumbent vote would at least guarantee him a runoff position.
The Texas primary will likely be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff election targeted for May 26 if no candidate receives majority support.
North Carolina
Former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D)
This is an interesting move because Nickel originally said that he would only run if former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) decided not to mount a Senate campaign. Cooper is finishing a fellowship at Harvard University and said he would make a decision about the Senate race when he completes the program.
When asked about Cooper potentially entering the Senate contest, Nickel now says he will “cross that bridge when I come to it.” Initially, he said he would step aside if Cooper decided to become a candidate. In reality, the former one-term Raleigh area Congressman may have inside information that the former Governor will not run for the Senate, hence his decision to announce his own campaign earlier than originally planned.
The developments could also be a signal that Cooper may be looking more seriously at the presidential race. If so, he would be unlikely to run for Senate in 2026 if he is planning to launch a national campaign in the 2028 open presidential cycle.
In any event, the eventual Democratic Senate nominee will challenge two-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R) in what will again be a highly competitive 2026 general election. The North Carolina race promises to be one of the top national US Senate campaigns of the current election cycle.