By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 3, 2023
HouseMI-10: Re-Match Likely — Michigan’s new Detroit suburban 10th District was drawn as a competitive seat, and the 48.8 – 48.3 percent finish in Republican John James’ favor certainly lent support to the pre-election predictions. Though he did not contest the original outcome by calling for a recount, it appears that former local judge and ex-Macomb County prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D) is reportedly telling supporters that he is planning to return for a re-match.
Rep. James (R-Farmington Hills), who twice lost tight US Senate battles, has already said he will not join the open statewide 2024 candidate field so he can defend this politically marginal House district. We can expect another major competitive battle here next year.
NY-22: Democrat Already Exits — Freshman Rep. Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse) is a newcomer to elected politics and is expected to be a major Democratic target in the 2024 election considering he is one of less than 20 members holding a district opposite of the electorate’s partisan lean. Only weeks ago, Manlius Town Council member Katelyn Kriesel announced that she would file to oppose the new congressman next year. However, she opted out of the race on Wednesday citing family reasons.
NY-22 will be a major target, but for the short term, anyway, Democrats lack a candidate. Expect one to emerge, but now it appears that time is favoring Rep. Williams.
RI-1: Movement Beginning for Special Election Battle — Last week, Rhode Island US Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) announced that he will be resigning his seat on June 1 to become president & CEO of the Rhode Island Foundation, a funding organization that supports projects in the Ocean State. The move means we will see a special election in the state’s 1st District later this year.
So far, Attorney General Peter Neronha (D) says he will not run for the congressional seat, but others are assessing their political prospects. Two who appear to be leaning toward running are state House Speaker Joe Shekarchi (D-Warwick) and Biden White House aide Gabe Amo (D).
Other potential candidates include Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos (D), former Secretary of State and ex-gubernatorial candidate Nellie Gorbea (D), state Senate Majority Leader Ryan Pearson (D-Cumberland), and many local mayors and state legislators. The battle will be in the Democratic primary since the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates RI-1 as a heavily Democratic district at D+32.
West Virginia: State Auditor Enters Open Race — Elected state Auditor J.B. McCluskey (R) announced that he will forego re-election to become an open-race gubernatorial candidate. Gov. Jim Justice (R) is ineligible to seek a third term but may declare his candidacy opposite Sen. Joe Machin (D) in the next few days.
McCuskey and Secretary of State Mac Warner (R) are the only statewide officials in the candidate field. State Delegate Moore Capito (R-Charleston), son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), and businessman Chris Miller (R), son of US Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington), are already in the field along with private preschool owner Rashida Yost (R) and rancher Terri Bradshaw (R). No Democratic candidate has yet stepped forward.