Monthly Archives: June 2016

Four States Choose Nominees

By Jim Ellis

June 30, 2016 — Voters went to the polls to select their general election political lineups in Colorado, New York, Oklahoma, and Utah.

Colorado

Just as El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn became the endorsed US Senate candidate at the state Republican convention earlier in the year, he soared to a primary victory. Glenn topped 38 percent of the GOP vote, outpacing former Colorado State Athletic Director Jack Graham (25 percent), who many people believed to be the best candidate in the crowded field, businessman Robert Blaha (16 percent), former state Rep. Jon Keyser (13 percent), and ex-Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier (nine percent).

Commissioner Glenn now advances to the general election to face Sen. Michael Bennet (D), where the challenger faces long odds. Considering the breakdown in Republican recruiting and the fact that the establishment candidate, Keyser, finished second to last gives observers little confidence that this can become a competitive race in the fall.

Continue reading →

Primaries Yesterday

By Jim Ellis

June 29, 2016 —

Colorado

Sen. Michael Bennet (D) officially heads into the general election, and learned the identity of his Republican opponent, El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn. The GOP has had nothing but trouble in finding a suitable challenger here, in what was once thought to be a competitive race. But, a series of recruiting mishaps and several candidates having trouble with the petition signature process means the Senator stands in strong position for re-election.

In addition to Glenn, the Republican candidates were businessman John Blaha, and ex-state Rep. Jon Keyser, along with former Aurora city councilman and previous congressional candidate Ryan Frazier, and ex-Colorado State University Athletic Director Jack Graham. Glenn begins as a decided underdog to Sen. Bennet and faces a major uphill climb in making this race a top-tier challenge campaign.

Reps. Diana DeGette (D-Denver) and Douglas Lamborn (R-Colorado Springs) drew respective party primary challenges, but both won easily.

New York

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) stands for re-election and will have little trouble securing a fourth term in November. He had no primary opposition.

Continue reading →

Clinton Up 10 Points, Or One?

By Jim Ellis

June 28, 2016 — Two new national media polls were released over the weekend, and even though they were conducted over the same sampling period their conclusions are quite different.

The Washington Post-ABC News poll (June 20-23; 1,001 adults — undisclosed number of registered voters, 650 certain voters) finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump and Gary Johnson, 47-37-7 percent. But, the NBC/Wall Street Journal survey (June 19-23; 1,000 registered voters) finds only a one-point Clinton edge, 39-38-10 percent, over Trump and Johnson, respectively.

In both cases, Clinton’s lead is stronger without Johnson included. The fact that the Johnson-Weld Libertarian Party ticket will be on the ballot in all 50 states makes the third party inclusion more accurate. Without Johnson, WaPo/ABC finds a 51-39 percent Clinton spread; NBC/WSJ sees a 46-41 percent margin.

Green Party candidate Jill Stein was also added to the mutli-candidate question in both surveys. She scored three percent on the WaPo/ABC study, and six percent from NBC/WSJ. It is unlikely, however, that she will gain 50-state ballot standing. Therefore, her national poll position is largely irrelevant at this time.

Continue reading →

A Contested Convention After All?

By Jim Ellis

June 27, 2016 — There is clear evidence that “Never Trump” Republican national delegates are organizing an effort to force a national convention rules change and, in effect, fully open the floor proceedings when all delegations gather in Cleveland.

The movement received a shot in the arm earlier in the week when Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus appointed former US Rep. Enid Greene Mickelsen (R-UT) as chair of the national convention rules committee, and veteran RNC committeeman and former White House staff member Ron Kaufman (R-MA) as her co-chair. In doing so, Priebus by-passed the current RNC eules committee chairman, Arizona committeeman Bruce Ash, who is a strong proponent for keeping the rules consistent.

That’s not to say that Mickelsen and Kaufman would be sympathetic to opening the convention, but it was clear that Ash is hostile to the idea. In media interviews, Ash repeatedly stated that Donald Trump has abided by all party rules and fairly won the nomination through his particular strength in primaries. Trump has amassed more votes than any Republican candidate in history, meaning his presidential nomination is clearly legitimate. Ash further indicated that the GOP delegates, including himself, represent the Republican voters of their states, and they have clearly selected Trump.

Continue reading →

Florida Dominoes Fall

By Jim Ellis

June 24, 2016 — As expected, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) officially reversed course and announced that he will file for re-election. His action put in motion other political moves.

As promised, Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera (R) announced that he is ending his Senate campaign, deferring to his long-time friend. Rep. David Jolly (R-FL-13) exited the Senate race late last week in anticipation of Rubio returning and simultaneously declared that he would attempt to seek re-election to the House.

In north-central Florida, Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-FL-6), another Senate candidate, also stated that he, too, would leave the Senate race and now likewise retreats to seek re-election to his US House seat. Unlike Rep. Jolly, who had been laying the groundwork for a House return for a couple of weeks, Rep. DeSantis had kept his plans to himself. This led to speculation that he might not re-enter the congressional race, since six Republicans were already running, and instead sit out the 2016 election and file for the open attorney general’s position in 2018.

Continue reading →

Why the Panic?

By Jim Ellis

June 23, 2016 — It is clear that most Republican insiders, and many elected delegates preparing for the national convention in Cleveland, appear terror stricken over the Trump campaign’s current status. Now, a long-shot move is underway to attempt to change the GOP convention rules so all delegates would be free to vote as they choose, thus dissing state laws and binding planks in a last-ditch attempt to deny Donald Trump the nomination.

Trump, himself, is being portrayed as showing signs of panic with his abrupt firing of campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, but this act is likely a response to the poor fundraising operation that came directly under the departed top staff man’s purview. The Trump campaign reports an embarrassingly low $1,289,507 million cash on hand.

But is there reason for such panic? As often seems the case, the people directly involved in the political process appear to pay more attention to media stories than to numbers and maps because the empirical data is telling quite a different story.

Quinnipiac University just released polls in three key states, all taken between June 8-19. Their new Florida poll (975 registered Florida voters) finds Hillary Clinton leading Trump 47-39 percent, a significant gain in this most important of swing states, but the relatively modest eight point spread is her best showing, by far.

Continue reading →

How Rubio’s Decision Affects Others

By Jim Ellis

June 22, 2016 — It appears that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R) will change course and run for re-election after repeatedly saying he would not. GOP leaders, fearing they would lose the seat without him, have apparently prevailed upon him to seek re-election after exerting intense pressure. We will know for sure very shortly, because the state’s candidate filing deadline closes Friday afternoon.

But, Rubio’s decision will not only affect the Senate race. Two House district campaigns could also drastically change if he launches a new campaign.

Already, Rep. David Jolly (R-FL-13) has left the Senate race and returns to his Pinellas County congressional district to fight an uphill battle for re-election in an unfavorable post-redistricting seat. The state Supreme Court drew a new 13th CD that greatly favors the Democrats, and party switching former Gov. Charlie Crist will be Jolly’s general election opponent.

Continue reading →