Monthly Archives: August 2015

Q-Poll: Rubio Best Against Democrats

Aug. 24, 2015 — Quinnipiac University simultaneously polled the swing states of Florida (1,093 registered voters), Ohio (1,096 registered voters), and Pennsylvania (1,085 registered voters) during the Aug. 7-18 period and found that neither Donald Trump nor Jeb Bush is the strongest Republican against a trio of potential Democratic nominees. Rather, it is Florida Sen. Marco Rubio who scores the highest in ballot test pairings opposite his Democratic counterparts.

The young senator, however, isn’t quite as strong on the Republican primary ballot test, placing third in all three states including his own. The Q-Poll’s three state combination does show that Rubio would be the Democrats’ most formidable opponent, therefore suggesting he has the potential of likewise creating a surge among Republicans.

The pollsters paired three Democrats: Hillary Clinton, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, and Vice President Joe Biden, with three Republicans: Trump, Bush, and the Florida senator. The data finds that Rubio is the only one of the trio who leads Clinton in each of the three places. In fact, he tops all three Democrats everywhere in the tested region with the exception of trailing VP Biden in Ohio, but by just one percentage point, 42-41 percent.

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Edwards Up in Maryland;
More National Data

Aug. 21, 2015 — Rep. Donna Edwards (D-MD-4) released the results of her internal Global Strategies Group poll (Aug. 3-9; 600 likely Maryland Democratic primary voters) and, despite her severe disadvantage in fundraising, the data finds her leading fellow Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD-8) in their quest for the open Maryland Senate seat. Edwards maintains a five-point margin, 42-37 percent.

The released data included the Edwards-Van Hollen ballot test, plus favorability ratings for the two announced contenders and Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-MD-7), who remains a potential Senate candidate.

Interestingly, the index scores for Edwards and Van Hollen are almost identical. The polling respondents rate Edwards at 45:9 percent favorable to unfavorable. Van Hollen registers 45:11 percent. But, Rep. Cummings does even better. He posts a whopping 65:9 percent positive ratio.

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VA Democrats’ Redistricting Move

Aug. 20, 2015 — There won’t be a new congressional map coming from the Virginia legislature and governor, after all. In early June, based upon their previous ruling and subsequent US Supreme Court decisions, a federal three-judge panel ordered the state legislature to re-draw, by Sept. 1, the southeastern part of Virginia after affirming that Congressional District 3 — Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Newport News) is illegal.

Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) called the special legislative session for purposes of complying with the judicial ruling, but the members have already left Richmond. The map will revert to the court, where the judges will presumably draw the new map themselves.

Judicial maneuvering, and not congressional politics, caused the session to close less than a day after it began. Virginia is one of two states, South Carolina being the other, that gives judicial appointment responsibility to the legislature. The governor, during times of recess, has the right to fill judicial vacancies.

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Hillary’s Deepening Problem

Aug. 19, 2015 — Fox News just released their latest poll (Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company; Aug. 11-13; 1,008 registered voters; 401 likely Democratic primary voters; 381 likely Republican primary voters), and the traditional media coverage seems to be emphasizing a lesser analytical point.

Their stories highlight that Donald Trump, Dr. Ben Carson, and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) are expanding their respective leads (25-12-10 percent) over whom the media identifies as the Republican establishment candidates, namely ex-Gov. Jeb Bush (who posts 9 percent), and the many elected governors and senators who are in the race. The Hillary Clinton results, however, are actually more compelling.

Once again we see a familiar pattern defining the Clinton performance. Democrats favorably view her, but Republicans and Independents generally hold a highly negative impression. She leads in all ballot test pairings but breaks 50 percent at no time, and the vast majority of voters don’t trust her.

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What Happens When …

Aug. 18, 2015 — Candidate jockeying, polling, fundraising, and campaign strategy are not the only practical elements that will influence the outcome of the upcoming presidential race. The voting schedule is also of prime importance and plays a key role in determining the final results.

The political calendar is coming into better focus, and the 56 (Republican) and 57 (Democratic) entities will all conduct their individual voting procedures between Feb. 1 and June 14 of next year. Most of the states can still maneuver and make changes, so the final calendar won’t be set for some time.

The additional voting entities beyond the 50 states are the District of Columbia and territories. DC, American Samoa, Guam, Northern Marianas Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands are the ancillary jurisdictions eligible to participate in the nominating process. The Democrats authorize one more voting segment, entitled “Democrats Abroad”.

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