Monthly Archives: June 2013

Obama’s Ratings

Photo: The White House

Photo: The White House

The Pew Center for the People and the Press just completed their monthly presidential approval survey (June 12-16; Princeton Survey Research Associates International; 1,512 US adults; 758 on landlines, 755 on cell phones, 575 Independents, 487 Democrats, 388 Republicans) and find that President Obama’s ratings are largely unchanged despite the multiple scandals building around him. According to the data, 49 percent approve of the president’s job performance versus 43 percent who do not. In May, the ratio was 51:43 percent.

While he continues to score high on his handling of the terrorism issue, 56:35 percent positive to negative, his worst numbers come, not surprisingly, in the area of privacy and civil liberties (42:51 percent). Considering the revelations surrounding the IRS and National Security Agency (NSA), the results again continue the phenomenon of largely not blaming the President himself for his own Administration’s policies and practices.

Economy

On the economy, the respondents’ outlook is still largely negative but clearly improving. Forty-four percent say they approve of the president’s handling of the economy versus 50 percent who disapprove, but that is up from his 40:56 percent ratio when last asked in Pew’s Feb. 13-16 poll.

Impressions of how the economy will perform in the future is up substantially just since their March 2013 study. Thirty-three percent of the current respondents view the economy as being better a year from now,  Continue reading >

Governors on the Edge

Some newly released polling shows three individual governors in serious re-election danger. Recording poor approval ratings for an extended period of months, governors Rick Scott (R-FL) and Pat Quinn (D-IL) were known to be in obvious trouble, but a Quinnipiac University poll from last week (June 5-10; 1,065 registered Colorado voters) also indicates that Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) is beginning to teeter. The Q-Poll projects that former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO-6) is pulling to within just one-point (42-41 percent) of the Rocky Mountain chief executive. Such a result puts this governor, who was previously thought to be almost politically invincible, into a potentially competitive race.

In Florida, Republican Scott continues to trail two key Democratic potential opponents, but his standing is improving. To the northwest in Illinois, Democrat Quinn is also behind his top rivals — in this case fellow party members attempting to deny him re-nomination — and, he too, is on the upswing.

Florida

Quinnipiac just published the results of their new Florida poll (June 11-16; 1,176 registered Florida voters). They find that Gov. Scott has fought back to an almost even standing on his job approval rating (43:44 percent favorable to unfavorable), but still trails former Gov. Charlie Crist (D) and Sen. Bill Nelson, both by a substantial 10-point margin. Crist, the former Republican-turned-Independent-turned-Democrat, holds a 47-37 percent lead over the incumbent. Sen. Nelson, fresh from winning election to a third term this past November, scores an almost identical 48-38 percent margin against Scott. The senator claims he’s staying in his current job, but never fully closes the door on the issue of challenging the governor. It is unlikely he will do so, but such rhetoric certainly keeps his name and profile at the political forefront.

Crist is a different story, however. He will almost assuredly run, and his favorables are surprisingly high considering his ignominious temporary exit from Florida politics in 2010. You will remember that Marco Rubio, at the time a former state House Speaker, was building such strong momentum that Crist, even as a sitting Republican governor, was forced out of the Republican Party, and then chose to run for the Senate as an Independent. In the  Continue reading >

NJ Senate Poll; SCOTUS’ Arizona Ruling

New Jersey

Immediately upon New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) scheduling the special Senate election to replace the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D), both Quinnipiac University and Rutgers-Eagleton went into the field to measure the Garden State electorate. Both pollsters produced a similar conclusion — Newark Mayor Cory Booker is opening up a wide lead in the Democratic primary — but their samples sizes of less than 350 respondents were unacceptably low in a larger population state.

Now, Rasmussen Reports (June 12-13; 1,000 likely New Jersey voters) confirms that Booker does indeed have a huge lead derived from a much larger survey sample. Though the methodology does not specifically identify how many people (but undoubtedly larger than 350 individuals and presumably likely Democratic primary voters) were asked to choose among Mayor Booker, Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ-6) and Rep. Rush Holt (D-NJ-12), and Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver, the results were almost identical to what Quinnipiac and Rutgers-Eagleton originally found.

According to RR, Booker would command support from 54 percent of the Democratic voters, followed by Holt with 11 percent, and Pallone at 8 percent. Oliver trailed the pack registering just 5 percent preference.

For the special general election, tested among all 1,000 respondents, Booker leads former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan (R) 50-33 percent.

The special primary is scheduled for Aug. 13, followed by the deciding vote on Oct. 16. The winner will serve the balance of Sen. Lautenberg’s final term, and is eligible to stand for election to a full six-year stint during the regular 2014 election.

Arizona

Yesterday, the US Supreme Court released its ruling on the Arizona v. The Arizona  Continue reading >

Will Ad Tying IRS to Health Care Move Mass. Voters?

As expected, a political entity is taking to the airwaves to highlight the Internal Revenue Service’s role in implementing the Obama healthcare law, but the message delivery needs to be stronger if they expect to move voters.

The organization Americans for Progressive Action, supporting Republican Gabriel Gomez over Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5) in the Senate special election scheduled for June 25 in Massachusetts, attacked with an ad that depicts Markey as supporting IRS “control” of “health care reform” and Gomez as an opponent, though making it clear that the Republican supports reforming the healthcare system. (Though the ad says that both Markey and Gomez support “healthcare reform”, it doesn’t specifically say that Gomez supports President Obama’s Affordable Healthcare Act, though the casual viewer will be left with the impression that he does.)

The effectiveness of the ad will be questioned. Though making it clear that the IRS “controlling” healthcare reform is a bad thing, it doesn’t explain why. The spot assumes, most likely incorrectly, that the viewing voter base knows the details of the current IRS profiling scandal.

Survey data will soon tell us if the IRS issue is moving voters in the Massachusetts Senate race, which could be a precursor of how the issue might play in the regular 2014 election. But, the political ad producers will have to tell a better story than the APA’s current effort if they hope to make this issue a deciding electoral factor.

Michigan’s Rogers Won’t Run for Senate

It had been presumed for the past several weeks that Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI-8), widely believed to be the Republicans’ best potential US Senate candidate, would not run and he clarified his status on Friday afternoon in an email to supporters. In his message, Rogers said, “I have determined that the best way for me to continue to have a direct impact for my constituents and the nation is to remain in the House of Representatives. For me, the significance and depth of the impact I can make on my constituent’s behalf far outweighs the perceived importance of any title I might hold.”

With that, the congressman made clear his intent to remain as chairman of the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, a position of even greater importance with the revelations about the National Security Agency conducting warrantless surveillance of American citizens.

The GOP is now left with former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land to run against presumed Democratic nominee, Rep. Gary Peters (MI-14), in the open Senate seat campaign. Sen. Carl Levin (D) is retiring after what will be 36 years in office at the end of his current term. Based upon Michigan voting history, Peters and the Democrats will start the campaign in the favorite’s position. But, the Wolverine State has been known to swing Republican from time to time, particularly in mid-term elections as it did in 2010 when the GOP swept the ballot from top to bottom, so the Senate race does have the potential to become competitive.

Land was twice elected Secretary of State, winning her elections with 55 and 56 percent of the statewide vote in 2002 and 2006, respectively. She was not eligible to seek re-election in 2010.

Peters was first elected to Congress in 2008, defeating veteran GOP Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R-MI-9). He won a close re-election (50-47 percent) in the Republican landslide year of 2010, and then, in 2012, won election to a Detroit city congressional seat defeating a Democratic incumbent in the primary after his Oakland County CD became a reapportionment casualty. Prior to his election to Congress, Peters served as the state’s lottery commissioner and in the Michigan Senate.

Michaud for Governor?

Maine 2nd District Rep. Mike Michaud (D) released a video (see below) yesterday announcing that he is forming an exploratory committee to run for governor next year. When most people file “exploratory committees,” as Illinois Democrat Bill Daley did earlier in the week for his own Land of Lincoln gubernatorial campaign, it is with the clear intent of running for the office. Here, Michaud has probably not completely decided and is truly using the entity to test the waters for his effort.

You will remember in 2012, just after Sen. Olympia Snowe (R) announced that she would not seek re-election, Michaud quickly, but tentatively, jumped into the statewide race. When it became apparent that Independent former Gov. Angus King was heading to consensus candidate status for Independents and Democrats, Michaud quickly scurried back to his safe House seat and announced that he would run for re-election.

The Maine gubernatorial contest is similar to the ’12 Senate campaign because a strong Independent will be in the race. Back in 2010, Independent liberal attorney Eliot Cutler placed a close second to Republican Paul LePage, leaving Democrat Libby Mitchell far behind in third place. Many observers credit Cutler’s presence in the race, and his strong campaign, as the main reason LePage won. Since the Republican scored only 37.5 percent of the vote in the three-way contest, such an analysis appears to carry credibility.
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Noem Remains; Brown Up in Massachusetts

In a formal and unsurprising announcement, Rep. Kristi Noem (R-SD-AL) confirmed that she will not challenge former Gov. Mike Rounds (R) for South Dakota’s open US Senate seat next year. Noem, serving her second term in the House, indicated that she will seek re-election to her current position.

Rumors and speculation had persisted for months that the congresswoman may hop into the Senate race and attempt to challenge Rounds from the right, but she never appeared to be making any tangible moves to prepare for such a race. Meanwhile, as he has done since the 2012 election cycle concluded, the former governor continued to build his Senatorial campaign on a daily basis.

Rounds is definitely the man to beat. Now with a clear shot at the Republican nomination, he will have a united party behind him as he works to convert the open seat to the GOP column. Democrats have only one candidate so far, Rick Weiland a former staff aide to then-Sen. Tom Daschle (D), because stronger potential contenders such as former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD-AL) and US Attorney Brendan Johnson both declined to run. Three-term Sen. Tim Johnson (D), Brendan’s father, is retiring.

Both the open South Dakota and West Virginia Democratic seats top the GOP conversion list, as Republicans have big leads against weak opponents in both states. In West Virginia, where veteran Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) is retiring, the early leader and prohibitive favorite is Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV-2).

Massachusetts Governor’s Race — Brown Cruising

A just-released University of Massachusetts political survey (conducted by international pollster YouGov; May 30-June 4; 500 registered Massachusetts voters) again projects former Sen. Scott Brown (R) to be in strong position to win next year’s open governor’s campaign. Currently, Brown is testing the waters for a senatorial run in New Hampshire, but his early standing  Continue reading >