Florida Rep. Neal Dunn to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, January 15, 2026

House

Florida Rep. Neal Dunn (R)

The cavalcade of House retirements continues. Five-term Florida Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City) announced Tuesday that he will not seek re-election later this year.

Rep. Dunn, a physician, served in the Army Medical Corps for 11 years before coming to the Florida Panhandle where he founded two medical facilities and a bank, all prior to his initial election to the US House in 2016.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) indicates he will call a special session in April for congressional redistricting, so we can expect to see some different district configurations result in northern Florida. Rep. Dunn’s open 2nd District will likely become more Republican under new construction since the GOP map drawers will want to secure the district for a new party nominee.

Rep. Dunn’s 2nd District currently stretches from west of Panama City to the city of Perry at the easternmost point of the CD and through the capital city of Tallahassee, including all of Leon County. The 2nd features a 54.3R – 43.7D partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App statistics), a distinctly Republican seat but one with a weaker GOP inclination than most of the Sunshine State’s northern congressional districts. It would be an easy territory swap for the new map drawers to include more Republicans from the western 1st District in exchange for a commensurate amount of Democratic territory moving from the 2nd to the 1st.

Click on image to go to interactive map of Florida CDs on DavesRedistrictingApp.

Congressional districts 1-7, and 11 and 12 comprise northern Florida and all are Republican held. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the Republican partisan lean factors within these nine districts range from 67.5R (FL-1; Rep. Jimmy Patronis) to 52.8R (FL-7; Rep. Cory Mills).

The weaker districts are 7, 4 (Rep. Aaron Bean-R), and Rep. Dunn’s 2nd CD. Expect all three to gain Republicans under a new draw with the three strongest northern Florida GOP seats, the 1st, 6th, and 5th (Rep. John Rutherford-R), potentially giving up Republicans to strengthen the others.

The 6th District, which freshman Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) represents, may remain close to its current configuration because he is the candidate who won the special election when then-Rep. Mike Waltz resigned to join the Trump Administration. Rep. Fine actually represented a state Senate district about 100 miles from the 6th CD, so keeping this seat as strong as possible will be a GOP goal to make sure that Fine has a viable opportunity to solidify his new political base.

Watch for a major redraw of District 7. Here, Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach), who is under a scandal cloud and holds the weakest Republican seat in northern Florida, is staring at a difficult re-election. He already has two Republican primary challengers with several other possibilities depending upon how the new 7th is drawn.

Because the current 7th District partisan lean is only 52.8R – 45.0D, without redistricting Rep. Mills can expect a credible Democrat to challenge him. Six Democrats, including former NASA chief of staff Bale Dalton, are preparing campaigns, but this field could also drastically change once a new configuration becomes public.

It will be interesting to see if the map drawers decide to draw the seat with Mills-favorable Republicans or design a new 7th so another Republican likely wins the party nomination, thus jettisoning Rep. Mills because of his scandal trouble.

With Rep. Dunn retiring, the open-seat count now grows to 53 (28 Republican seats; 20 Democratic; and five new seats created through California and Texas redistricting). Of the 48 current members not seeking re-election, only 19 are retiring from elective politics. The remainder, excluding the two members who have passed away, are running for different offices.

California Rep. Julia Brownley
Will Not Seek Re-Election

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, January 13, 2026

House

Seven-term California Rep. Julia Brownley (D-Westlake Village/ Ventura County)

As the new year begins, congressional retirement announcements are increasing. Late last week, seven-term California Rep. Julia Brownley (D-Westlake Village/ Ventura County) announced that she will not seek re-election this year.

Immediately after the Congresswoman made her political intentions public, state Assemblywoman Jacqui Irwin (D-Thousand Oaks) declared her congressional candidacy with Rep. Brownley’s endorsement.

Brownley served three terms in the California Assembly prior to winning her first election to the Ventura County-anchored 26th Congressional District in 2012. In her seven congressional races, the Representative averaged 56.8 precent of the general election vote, which is the District 26 projected Democratic partisan lean number.

The new 26th saw only minor changes in the 2025 redistricting map. Prior to voters adopting the new plan, the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculated a 56.8D – 41.2R partisan lean. The new 26th, which stretches a bit further east into Los Angeles County largely for the purpose of making freshman Rep. George Whitesides (D-Agua Dulce/Santa Clarita) 27th District slightly more Democratic, has a partisan lean of 56.7D – 42.5R.

The new 26th is moving closer to the competitive realm, but it is still wholly within the universe of distinctly Democratic California congressional districts. Under the 2022 redistricting map, Rep. David Valadao (D-Hanford/Fresno) represents the most Democratic California district to elect a Republican. Under that plan, the CA-22 partisan lean was 55.5D – 42.6R.

Jacqui Irwin was first elected to the state Assembly in 2014. Under the California term limit law that allows members to serve up to 12 years in one chamber, Irwin is ineligible to seek re-election. Prior to winning her seat in the legislature, Assemblywoman Irwin served two terms as Mayor of Thousand Oaks and three on the Thousand Oaks City Council. She begins her 2026 congressional campaign as the favorite to win the seat.

The 26th District covers about 80 precent of Ventura County, sharing with District 24 (Rep. Salud Carbajal-D) and veteran Democrat Brad Sherman’s CD-32. The CD-26 remaining constituency resides in Los Angeles County. In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris carried the district over President Trump 56-41 precent, which is consistent with the regional partisan lean.

Rep. Brownley’s retirement announcement brings the total open seat count for the next election to 52. She is the 20th Democrat to leave the House.

A total of 18 members from both parties are retiring from elective politics (17) or have resigned from the House (1). Thirteen departing Representatives are running for the Senate and another 13 are seeking the Governorship of their respective state. One member, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin), is running for Texas Attorney General. Two seats are vacant due to the incumbent’s death.

Though articles have been written about the Republican exodus from the House, in actuality, more Democrats (11) are retiring from elective politics than Republicans (7). Obviously, a greater number of Republicans are seeking a different office.

Five new seats were created through 2025 redistricting maps in California and Texas. The latter state has three new vacant seats, while two California Democratic members are leaving their current congressional districts to run in another CD under the new map’s boundaries.

Sacramento area Rep. Ami Bera is leaving District 6 to run for election in CD-3, while Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Whittier) departs from the 38th CD to seek election in new District 41.

Peltola Announces for Senate

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, January 14, 2026

Senate

Former Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) announces her Senate candidacy in this Facebook post.

Reports from last week suggesting that former Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) was seriously considering running for the Senate this year have proven correct. Peltola, defeated for re-election to the House in 2024, announced Tuesday that she will challenge two-term Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan later this year.

Though the Senate race was always on the table for Peltola, her decision to jump into this challenger contest is still a bit surprising. Considering the crowded Republican field running in the open Governor’s campaign, it appeared that Peltola would be assured of qualifying for the general election with a reasonable chance of winning the Governorship against possibly three Republicans advancing from the state’s unique top four primary system. Peltola’s chance improves even further when such a scenario advances to the Ranked Choice Voting round, through which she won her two congressional races.

The Alaska electoral system features an August jungle qualifying election where all candidates are placed on the same ballot regardless of political party affiliation. The top four finishers then advance into the general election. If no candidate receives majority support, the Ranked Choice Voting rounds begin.

The top four/Ranked Choice Voting system was challenged at the ballot box in 2024 through a voter initiative and survived by just 664 votes in the statewide tabulation. System opponents have again filed for another run at repealing the system and it appears enough signatures have been filed to qualify for the 2026 ballot. Even if the repeal proponents are successful in the ‘26 election, however, the top four process will still be in effect for the present cycle.

Though polling is already showing a Sullivan-Peltola Senate race to be a virtual toss-up, such is not surprising at this point in the election cycle. It is common to see the Alaska Democratic candidates consistently polling better early than they actually perform when votes are counted on election day.

For example, in the 2020 presidential race, President Trump appeared to be in a dead heat with future President Joe Biden in the Last Frontier, but the Republican ended with a secure 10-point win. In the 2024 congressional race, then-Rep. Peltola led Republican Nick Begich III by 9-14 percentage points in early polling before losing in a 51-49 percent Ranked Choice Voting final.

While Sen. Sullivan should still be regarded as the favorite for re-election, Peltola’s candidacy certainly makes the Senate race competitive. Looking at the rest of the country, we now see eight states where voters will decide a potentially tight Senate election.

In addition to Alaska, Republicans will be defending key Senate seats in Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, and Texas, while Democrats must protect Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire. For Democrats to reach a majority status of 51 Senate seats in this election, they would have to win seven of these eight hotly contested campaigns.

While the Peltola candidacy in Alaska puts another Republican Senate state in play for the Democrats, the party chances of capturing the majority in 2026 are still slim, but they may lessen the current 53-47 GOP margin.

Rep. Steny Hoyer to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Monday, January 12, 2026

House

Former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville)

First winning a special congressional election in early 1981, 23-term US Representative and former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) stated in an interview with a Washington Post reporter that he will not seek re-election next year.

At the end of this Congress, Hoyer, 86 years old, will complete just under 57 years in elective office counting his time in the US House and the Maryland state Senate. After losing a race for Lieutenant Governor in 1978 for which he left the state Senate, Hoyer served a three-year stint as an appointed member of the Maryland Board of Higher Education.

During his four-plus decades in the House the Congressman served as an elected member of the Democratic leadership for 26 years, holding the positions of Democratic Caucus Vice Chairman, Caucus Chairman, Minority Whip, and Majority Leader. He also served three years as the Maryland state Senate President.

Including Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s (R-CA) death last week, the House open seat count now grows to 51; 27 of these seats are Republican held, 19 Democratic, with five new openings created through 2025 redistricting maps in California and Texas.

Of the members not seeking re-election in 2026, a total of 14 are running for Governor, 13 for US Senate, and one seeking a different office (Rep. Chip Roy running for Texas Attorney General). Two seats are vacant due to the member passing away (Rep. LaMalfa and Texas Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner), while 16, like Rep. Hoyer, are retiring from elective politics.

Four of the open seats are vacant and will be filled in special elections before the regular cycle contests. The TX-18 seat, open because of Rep. Turner’s death, will be filled in a runoff election on Jan. 31.

New Jersey Governor-Elect Mikie Sherrill’s (D) 11th Congressional District will host a partisan primary election on Feb. 5 and a special general on April 16.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) this week scheduled the special jungle primary to replace resigned Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) for March 10, with a runoff if necessary, because no one receives majority support in the initial election, for April 7.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will soon schedule the special election to replace the late Rep. LaMalfa in the state’s 1st CD.

Maryland’s 5th Congressional District occupies most of the Chesapeake Bay’s western shore region. It contains all of Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary’s counties, about one-third of Anne Arundel County, and approximately one-quarter of Prince George’s County. It also houses the Waldorf, La Plata, Upper Marlboro, and Mechanicsville population centers.

MD-5 is strongly Democratic. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 60.9D – 36.4R partisan lean. Kamala Harris defeated President Trump here in 2024 with a 65.5 – 32.2 percent margin. In 2020, President Biden carried the district with an even more lopsided 67.4 – 30.9 percent spread.

A total of eight Democrats had announced a primary challenge to Rep. Hoyer, but none appeared capable of launching a major campaign. We are now likely to see several prominent Democrats come to the forefront to compete for a position that will be open for the first time in 46 years.

Though the 5th will remain in the Democratic column for the general election, we can expect to see a very competitive open party primary to be decided on June 23. The Maryland candidate filing deadline is Feb. 24.

Mary Peltola for Senate?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, January 9, 2026

Senate

Alaska’s Mary Peltola (D)

Surprising reports are coming from Alaska indicating that former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) will announce a US Senate bid before the end of this month.

The move is eyebrow-raising in that it was presumed by most that Peltola, who lost her seat in 2024 to current at-large Congressman Nick Begich III (R-Chugiak), would enter the open Governor’s race. In that campaign, she would easily have punched her ticket into the general election and eventually face a Ranked Choice Voting Republican opponent who is politically much weaker than two-term Sen. Dan Sullivan (R).

Should these reports prove true, Peltola, who won two congressional elections through the state’s top four primary system featuring the Ranked Choice Voting option, would likewise advance into the general election. Attempting to unseat Sen. Sullivan, however, might become a bridge too far.

In the 2024 congressional race, then-Rep. Peltola held a huge resource advantage over Begich. The campaign spending ratio was 5:2 in Peltola’s favor ($13.2 million to $2.6 million), yet she would lose the race by a 51.2 – 48.8 percent mark after three rounds of Ranked Choice Voting.

In a contest against Sen. Sullivan, who already has more than $5 million in his campaign account, the dollar advantage would likely fall to the incumbent, though both will have more than enough financial support to communicate their respective messages in a one-congressional district state.

Because Peltola has been circumspect for months about the race she might enter, or whether she would run for public office at all in 2026, pollsters have tested her for several offices.

Two polls were released in 2025 pitting Peltola against Sen. Sullivan. The results were not surprising as she has typically polled close in her past electoral efforts and ended with very tight results in her three congressional campaigns.

In her trio of federal political battles, winning two (both against former Governor and 2008 Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin) and losing one (to Begich), Peltola averaged 51.8 percent of the vote. All three of her races required Ranked Choice Voting rounds since none of the candidates reached the majority mark in the initial vote.

The Alaska Survey Research firm released an online US Senate campaign survey in late October of 1,908 likely voters. The result found Peltola holding a 48-46 percent lead over Sen. Sullivan. An earlier poll, from the Democratic firm Data for Progress, (published Aug. 8, 2025; 678 likely Alaska voters; online) found the Senator holding a slight 46-45 percent edge.

Data for Progress also tested Peltola in the Governor’s race. In the firm’s Aug. 8 poll, the ballot test results found the former Congresswoman commanding 40 percent support in the top four jungle primary that includes all candidates irrespective of political party affiliation. Her total compared to radio talk show host Bernadette Wilson’s (R) 11 percent preference figure while Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) attracted 10 percent support. None of the other five candidates (four Republicans and one Democrat) included in the poll broke into double-digit figures.

In the March 2025 Data for Progress survey, Peltola topped Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom 44-34 percent in a projected two-way general election. Therefore, the news breaking that Peltola has more interest in a Senate challenge than in running for the open Governor’s position was unexpected.

For the 2024 congressional race, two Republican firms, American Viewpoint and Cygnal, in August of that campaign year released polls finding then-Rep. Peltola leading Begich, 45-39 percent and 46-45 percent, respectively. A mid-September American Viewpoint survey posted Begich to a 44-40 percent edge. Finally, Cygnal’s mid-October numbers projected a Begich lead of 49-45 percent.

Thus, the aggregate polling largely proved accurate because the predicted tight finish proved true.

While Mary Peltola entering the 2026 US Senate race would probably not end in victory for her, she would certainly put the race in play for the Democrats who need a net gain of four seats to capture the Senate majority, and of course political lightning could strike. A Sullivan-Peltola race would certainly be competitive and would attract a significant amount of national political attention.

The Senate Open Races

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, January 8, 2026

The Senate Opens

Wyoming first-term Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R)

With Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) announcing her retirement at the end of last year, Wyoming becomes the ninth state to host an open 2026 US Senate race. As we begin 2026, we take a brief look at each open contest.

Alabama

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) is leaving the Senate to run for Governor. His replacement will almost assuredly come from the Republican primary. The leading candidates are Attorney General Steve Marshall, US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), and anti-human trafficking activist and ex-Navy SEAL Jared Hudson. Marshall is ineligible to seek a third term in his current position. This race could turn into an interesting three-way campaign since early polling projects different leaders.

Illinois

Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) is retiring and leaves a three-way party primary battling for the right to succeed him. The three contenders are Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Reps. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg).

From the beginning, Rep. Krishnamoorthi has held a large lead in polling and certainly fundraising. At this point less than three months before the March 17 primary, Rep. Krishnamoorthi looks to be the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination and to win the seat in the general election.

Iowa

Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is retiring after two terms, and three-term Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) appears as the prohibitive favorite to win the Republican nomination. Democrats are poised to make a run for the seat even though their nominee will be a decided underdog.

Reports last week indicate that Democratic Party leaders favor state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs), thinking he would be the strongest candidate to oppose Rep. Hinson. Also vying for the party nomination are state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), former state legislators Bob Krause and Richard Sherzan, and local Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage.

Kentucky

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) is retiring after serving what will be seven six-year terms. Without Gov. Andy Beshear in the Senate race for the Democrats, the battle to succeed Sen. McConnell will be fought in the Republican primary. There, we see a three-way race among former Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial candidate Daniel Cameron, Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington), and wealthy businessman Nate Morris.

Cameron, despite losing the 2023 general election to Gov. Beshear, leads Barr and Morris in polling but the Congressman has a multi-million-dollar advantage over Cameron in cash resources. Morris is independently wealthy and has been advertising early. Polling, however, shows he has little momentum.

For the Democrats, we will see a primary rematch from the 2020 race between former Marine Corps officer Amy McGrath and then-state Rep. Charles Booker. Kentucky’s Republican nature suggests that the eventual GOP nominee, likely either Rep. Barr or Cameron, will be a clear favorite in the general election.

Michigan

Michigan is one of two open Senate races projected as highly competitive in the general election. In this case, Republicans have a chance to convert a Democratic seat. Former Rep. Mike Rogers, who faces only a Michigan Republican Party former officer and minor candidates is a prohibitive favorite for the party nomination on Aug. 4. Rogers came within 19,006 votes of winning the 2024 Senate race and now is well positioned for the 2026 campaign.

The Democrats are embroiled in a tight three-way campaign for the party nomination among Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. All three have raised into seven figures and are running close in early polling.

Rogers advantage is that his eventual Democratic opponent will have come through a tough primary late in the cycle. This race is likely to be in toss-up mode all the way through the November election.

Minnesota

Sen. Tina Smith (D) surprisingly announced her retirement early in 2025, and leaves in her wake a two-way Democratic primary between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake). Flanagan is staking out the left flank of the Democratic Party, while Rep. Craig is positioning herself as more business friendly.

Under the Minnesota system, the state political party convention through delegate voting grants pre-primary endorsements. Typically, the candidates adhere to the endorsement process and don’t force primaries. It appears, however, this Senate election will advance to an Aug. 11 primary irrespective of the party convention action.

Republicans hope to recruit former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya into the race. Regardless of a potential Tafoya candidacy, the eventual Democratic nominee will have the advantage in the general election.

New Hampshire

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is retiring after three terms. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has adroitly transformed himself into the consensus Democratic nominee.

Former Sen. John E. Sununu (R), who lost to Shaheen in 2008 after defeating her in 2002, is competing for the nomination and looks to face former Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire Senate candidate Scott Brown. Sununu is likely to win the Republican nomination. Rep. Pappas will only be a slight favorite after the late Sept. 8 primary election. Clearly, the Republicans having a Sununu family member on the ballot gives the party a fighting chance to convert the seat.

North Carolina

Though both parties feature multiple candidates vying for their respective open US Senate nominations, each looks to already have their general election candidate.

For the Democrats in the second open race that will be highly competitive in the general election, former two-term Governor and previous four-term Attorney General Roy Cooper looks to be a lock for his party’s nomination. On the Republican side, former Republican National Committee and ex-North Carolina Republican Party chairman Michael Whatley is in the driver’s seat to clinch a general election ballot position.

The North Carolina race promises to feature a hotly contested campaign immediately after the general election begins on March 4 and will carry through to the November vote. The Tar Heel State always features tight elections, and the 2026 US Senate campaign will be no exception. Democrats certainly have a viable opportunity to convert this seat.

Wyoming

Late last year, Sen. Lummis announced that she would not seek a second term, which opens the safe Republican Wyoming seat. With Gov. Mark Gordon (R) term-limited and unlikely to run for the Senate, all eyes are on at-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) to decide if she will run for Governor, Senate, or re-election. Once she makes a decision, the Wyoming political musical chairs will begin.

At this point, it is unclear who will run where, but the Republicans will hold the seat. We may have to wait awhile, however, to see how this political situation unfolds. The candidate filing deadline is not until May 29 for the associated Aug. 18 primary election.

Rep. Doug LaMalfa Passes Away

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, January 7, 2026

House

California Congressman Doug LaMalfa

California Congressman Doug LaMalfa (R-Oroville) suddenly passed away during yesterday’s early hours, marking the fourth time a member of the House has died during the current congressional biennial. The other 119th Congress deceased members are Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), Sylvester Turner (D-TX), and Gerry Connolly (D-VA).

Rep. LaMalfa’s death will lead to a special election and likely in California’s new 1st Congressional District. Running in the new district will give the Democrats a distinct advantage to convert the seat.

According to the redistricting Proposition 50 verbiage that voters passed in a Nov. 4 special election, the new plan would be in effect from the beginning of 2026 until the California Citizens Redistricting Commission redraws the map after the 2030 census. Therefore, it is a virtual certainty that the special election will be held in the new district, though seeing a lawsuit arguing otherwise could be forthcoming. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will schedule the special election to replace the late Congressman.

LaMalfa, after serving three terms in the state Assembly and being elected to the state Senate, claimed the 1st District congressional seat in 2012. He was re-elected six times, including November of 2024. In his seven congressional elections, LaMalfa averaged 59.5 percent of the vote.

It is arguable that Rep. LaMalfa received the worst draw of any California Republican incumbent when comparing the new 1st District to the 1st CD from which he was elected. The northern California draw was largely conceived to give state Senate President Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) the opportunity of running for the US House.

Under the California term limits law, McGuire is ineligible to seek re-election to the state Senate this year. Considering that Gov. Newsom needed a two-thirds vote in each legislative chamber to place the redistricting map on the special election ballot as a referendum, a favorable 1st District was drawn to benefit the Senate President at the expense of Rep. LaMalfa.

The change is dramatic. The new 1st contains only 43 percent of the territory that constituted the previous 1st District, with 57 percent of the new constituency coming from the Democratic districts of Reps. Jared Huffman (D-San Raphael) and Mike Thompson (D-St. Helena/ Clear Lake). According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the 1st District partisan lean moves from a 60.2R – 37.7D Republican advantage to a pro-Democratic edge of 55.2D – 44.1R. Therefore, the chances of the Republicans retaining the seat, even if Rep. LaMalfa would have run for re-election, are for them less than favorable.

The death of LaMalfa and Monday’s official resignation of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) leaves the Republican majority margin at 218-213, with each party yielding two vacant seats.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announced yesterday that the special election to replace Rep. Greene is scheduled for March 10. All candidates will be placed on a jungle election ballot. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers, irrespective of partisan affiliation, will advance to a runoff election no later than 28 days after the initial vote. As the safest Republican seat in Georgia (DRA partisan lean: 69.2R – 28.9D) the GOP will retain the seat in the upcoming special election.

On Jan. 31, Houston, Texas voters will decide between Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D) to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D) who died last March. Regardless of the outcome, both candidates will then advance into a March 3 regular Democratic primary election, though one will be an incumbent. There, they will face Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) and others in a reconfigured 18th District under the new Texas redistricting map. Should no candidate receive majority support in the regular primary, a runoff will occur on May 26.

In northern New Jersey, voters will go to the polls in partisan primaries on Feb. 5 to choose nominees for the purpose of replacing Gov-Elect Mikie Sherrill (D) in the 11th Congressional District. The special general election is scheduled for April 16. The eventual Democratic nominee will be a heavy favorite to hold the seat. Once this election is complete, the House will have a full complement of 435 members for the first time since Rep. Grijalva passed away on March 13, 2025.