Tag Archives: Sen. Jon Ossoff

Georgia’s Sen. Ossoff in Dead Heat

See 2026 Georgia Senate poll results: Quantas Insights.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 19, 2025

Senate

As we know, the swing state of Georgia will be one of the key battleground 2026 US Senate domains, and a new statewide poll released earlier this week confirms the race will present challenges for both sides.

Georgia Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff

The Quantus Insights Peach State poll finds first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) falling into a dead heat with one Republican US House member and leads another within the polling margin of error. Yet, as we have seen in some other places, the polling sample shows issue inconsistencies within the electorate.

According to the Quantus study (Sept. 9-12; 624 likely Georgia general election voters; online and text), Sen. Ossoff and Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) are tied at 38 percent preference and Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) trails the Senator, 37-40 percent. Former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, son of long-time University of Georgia football coach Vince Dooley, is definitively behind Sen. Ossoff trailing 42-35 percent.

While other polls have shown similarly close ballot tests, the Quantus survey is interesting in that it delves more deeply into issues and reveals that both eventual nominees will have challenges in attempting to forge a winning coalition.

For example, while President Trump scores a 49 percent job approval score, Sen. Ossoff posts 47 percent, yet the two are virtually diametrically opposed on the issue agenda. Furthermore, while Sen. Ossoff posts a 47:37 percent job approval index, only 36 percent of the same sampling universe believes he deserves re-election, and 49 percent believes it is “time for a change.”

In an overwhelming number (53 percent), the poll respondents cite the cost of living and inflation as the most important issue. Crime and public safety is second (13 percent), with jobs and the economy closely behind (12 percent). The number one response, however, for why costs are rising is President Trump’s tariffs and trade policies (41 percent). The Biden Administration economic policies were the second-most mentioned cause (27 percent).

When asked which party do the Georgia respondents trust more to handle the economic issues, 40 percent said the Democrats and only 39 percent answered Republicans. On bringing down the cost of living, it is again the Democrats holding a slight edge, 36-35 percent.

On crime, however, Republicans are more trusted, 42-29 percent. Same for immigration with a 48-28 percent Republican favorable split. By a 53-40 percent majority, the respondents favor the mass deportation policy, while only 31 percent support Ossoff’s border security position. A total of 76 percent support the crime prevention Laken Riley Act, a Republican bill that Sen. Ossoff supported.

An inconsistency appears when respondents are asked to list what they believe should be the next Senator’s priorities. In order, the responses were reducing taxes for working families (39 percent), cutting wasteful federal spending (24 percent), and reducing regulations that raise prices (21 percent). This is in line with the Republican message, but the sentiment is not fully translating to the Republican candidates, particularly among Independent voters.

While Sen. Ossoff is unopposed for the Democratic nomination, on the Republican side the Quantus poll found Rep. Collins leading Rep. Carter and Dooley, 25-20-7 percent. With a large undecided pool, this campaign will go down to the wire toward the May 19 primary. If no one receives 50 percent, the top two finishers will advance to a June 16 runoff election.

As a reminder for the general election, Georgia is one of two states that also features a runoff election if no candidate receives majority support in the November vote. The post-election runoff was forced in the past two Georgia Senate elections. If this situation presents itself again in 2026, the deciding runoff will be held on Dec. 1.

As is the case in virtually every election, messaging will be key. Republicans must find a way to relate what are typically Georgia voter issue positions directly to the party’s Senate candidate, while Sen. Ossoff must find ways to improve his electoral standing even though his job approval is relatively good. It is important to note that in this poll’s ballot tests, the Senator did not break 40 percent preference against any Republican.

Along with the Senate races in Michigan, North Carolina, and Texas, the Georgia Senate battle will be a premier 2026 electoral contest.

New Georgia Senate Polling

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 12, 2025

Senate

One of the tightest 2026 US Senate races is sure to be found in the Peach State of Georgia and a new statewide poll already confirms a developing toss-up general election.

The TIPP Poll organization released the results of their new survey (July 28-Aug. 1; 2,956 registered Georgia voters; online) that forecasts Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) potentially as Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D) top challenger. According to the related ballot test, Sen. Ossoff’s edge over Rep. Collins would be a scant 45-44 percent.

The other Republican candidates also poll well against Sen. Ossoff but draw less support than Rep. Collins. Savannah area Congressman Buddy Carter (R-Pooler) would pull within 44-40 percent of Sen. Ossoff. Former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley, son of legendary Georgia University football coach Vince Dooley, would trail 44-39 percent in a hypothetical general election pairing with the first-term incumbent.

The results are not surprising. The Georgia electorate has returned some of the closest election results in the country since the 2018 Governor’s race that found current incumbent Brian Kemp (R) nipping Democrat Stacey Abrams by just over one percentage point.

The 2020 presidential race saw Joe Biden slipping past President Trump by only 11,779 votes from almost 5 million cast ballots.

Both 2020 Senate races were forced to runoff elections (Georgia had a special election that year to replace Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) who had resigned for health reasons prior to him passing away). Two years later, the race for a full term between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican Herschel Walker also moved into a post-election runoff.

In the 2024 presidential vote, Trump defeated President Biden, 50.7 – 48.5 percent by a more comfortable margin of 115,100 votes from more than 5.2 million cast ballots, but still a close final tally.

Additionally, Georgia is also one of the few states that holds a post-general election runoff should no candidate receive majority support (Mississippi is another and Louisiana is changing from their jungle primary/December runoff system to a traditional primary and general election beginning in 2026), and the ’26 Senate race advancing into political overtime is certainly a distinct possibility.

With this backdrop, we can expect another series of close Peach State elections led by its Senate and open Governor races. Therefore, the early TIPP general election poll already showing a dead heat comes with little surprise.

Before the general election begins, Republicans are likely to face a tough primary campaign where the top two finishers in the May 19 GOP nomination contest advance into a June 16 runoff election.

TIPP also surveyed the likely Republican primary voters and found Rep. Collins leading Rep. Carter and Mr. Dooley, 25-19-7 percent. Familiarity with the Republican candidates is not particularly high, however. This means the candidates will have to spend heavily in the primary just to win the right to challenge Sen. Ossoff.

A total of 44 percent of the tested polling sample expressed familiarity with Rep. Carter, 42 percent could identify Rep. Collins, and 37 percent recognized Derek Dooley’s name. The latter man won Gov. Kemp’s endorsement, and the Kemp leadership PAC is pledging to spend early to help educate the voters about Dooley. At this point, President Trump has not endorsed a Republican primary candidate, but all are seeking his support.

Resources in the general election, though both sides can expect millions of outside Super PAC money coming into the state to assist their efforts, will likely favor the incumbent Democrat. Already, Sen. Ossoff is the top fundraiser in the country after the latest disclosure reports became public.

The Senator, since his original election in 2020, has raised almost $42 million, but spent $30.8 million largely to clear expenses from the ’20 campaign and to support his substantial fundraising operation. Still, the Senator holds almost $15.5 million in his campaign account according to the June 30 Federal Election Commission finance report.

Rep. Carter is in the strongest financial position among Republicans. His receipts through the second quarter of 2025 top $3.5 million, but that includes a loan to the campaign of $2 million. His cash-on-hand total exceeds $4 million.

Rep. Collins is considerably behind, raising $745,883 since the beginning of the year and posting just over $1 million in the bank. Dooley, who recently became an official candidate, will file his first campaign financial disclosure report on Sept. 30.

Along with the Michigan and North Carolina Senate races, we can count on the Georgia Senate contest attracting a major share of national political attention next year.

Q1 Money

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 21, 2025

The first quarter 2025 campaign financial disclosure reports are now public, and the totals reveal interesting individual candidate information.

The Down Ballot political blog statisticians compiled the figures from the Federal Election Commission filings and released the data report for all Senate and House early contenders.

Senate

A total of 41 Senate reports were filed at the April 15 deadline, 31 of which are from incumbent members currently seeking re-election. The four Senators who have announced they will not run for re-election, Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Gary Peters (D-MI), Tina Smith (D-MN), and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), are not listed in the report.

The top Senate fundraiser for the 1st Quarter is Georgia’s Jon Ossoff (D), who will face a tough re-election campaign. He raised $11.1 million and holds $11.08 million in his campaign account. It is possible that Gov. Brian Kemp (R), ineligible to run for a third term, may challenge Sen. Ossoff.

If the Governor declines a Senate bid, Ossoff will likely face one of his colleagues from the House, either Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), or Mike Collins (R-Jackson). Each has said they would have interest in running for the Senate should Gov. Kemp decide not to enter the race.

In addition to Ossoff, the Senators raising the most money in the first quarter were Sens. Mark Warner (D-VA) with $2.83 million, Thom Tillis (R-NC) $2.24 million, Cory Booker (D-NJ) $1.56 million, and John Cornyn (R-TX) $1.54 million.

Sen. Warner is preparing for a possible challenge from Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) and Sen. Tillis may face an electoral battle with former Gov. Roy Cooper (D), while Sen. Cornyn is facing a Republican primary challenge with Attorney General Ken Paxton and possibly Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), among others. Sen. Booker will have an easy ride to re-election next year, but his heavy activity could be a clue that he is preparing another presidential run.

A key point from the report comes from Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL). He has not yet said if he will seek a sixth term next year. Age is an issue because he will turn 82 just after the 2026 election. The fact that Sen. Durbin raised only $42,000 during the entire 1st quarter when the incumbent average for the period was $1.18 million suggests we may see another retirement announcement soon forthcoming.

House

In House reporting, 462 presumed candidates filed disclosure statements. The aggregate House money raised for the 1st Quarter 2025 was $177,248,000 for a mean average of $383,653 per unit.

This number actually skews high because 31 House candidates, 28 of whom are incumbents, each raised over $1 million for the quarter. The most well-known House members did the best.

The top quarter fundraiser was Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) with a huge $9.55 million obtained. In fact, despite being in the minority, Democratic candidates were the top three first quarter fundraisers. Following Ocasio-Cortez are Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) with $3.7 million raised with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) closely behind posting $3.6 million in receipts.

Not surprisingly, the top Republican was House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) who gathered $3.23 million. The two other top GOP fundraisers were also conference leaders, Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) with dollar totals of $2.43 million and $1.98 million.

Three non-incumbents were in the $1 million-plus club for the first quarter, and they, too, are Democrats. New York candidate Blake Gendebien raised $3.05 million in preparation for an anticipated special election to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville), but such a vote will not occur this year as her nomination to the United Nations was withdrawn. Gendebien can be expected to run in the 2026 general election, however, particularly if Rep. Stefanik decides to enter the New York Governor’s campaign.

Colorado candidate Manny Rutinel and Wisconsin’s Rebecca Cooke also topped $1 million in gross receipts, but it appears they will have to spend much of their money against other Democrats. Each is being challenged for the party nomination in CO-8 and WI-3 to oppose Reps. Gabe Evans (R-CO) and Derrick Van Orden (R-WI), respectively.

Perhaps the bigger surprise of the fundraising quarter is how much money the most aggressive incumbents have in the bank. The average cash-on-hand figure for the 31 individuals in the million-plus club is $3.75 million. This number, however, is skewed by the four members with the most in their campaign committee accounts.

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) has the most cash at $19.5 million on hand. He has so much largely because Sen. Dick Durbin (D) may retire, and the Congressman is a virtual certain contender to run for an open Senate seat. The other three are: Reps. Khanna ($13.4 million), Ritchie Torres (D-NY) who may run for Governor ($12.85 million), and Ocasio-Cortez ($8.3 million).

Together, these four members hold 46.4 percent of the total cash-on-hand of the 31 top House fundraisers. The average cash-on-hand figure for the other 27 is $2.31 million.

Kemp Expanding Federal PAC; NJ Senate Race; Oregon House Challenger; More Chicago Data

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 13, 2023

National

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R)

Gov. Brian Kemp: Expanding Federal PAC — Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) has hired two national fundraisers to expand his federal political action committee’s financial base. Some believe his strengthening the Hardworking Americans PAC is a prelude for Kemp joining the presidential campaign, but it could also bring long term benefits for a potential US Senate run when Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) next comes in-cycle in 2026. Gov. Kemp was re-elected to a second term over Stacey Abrams (D) with a 53-46 percent victory margin. He is ineligible to again run for his current position in the 2026 election.

Senate

New Jersey: Local Democrat to Challenge Sen. Menendez — Two-term Roselle Park Mayor Joe Signorello announced late last week that he will launch a Democratic primary challenge to Sen. Bob Menendez in the New Jersey June 2024 primary election. Sen. Menendez is not expected to have much trouble winning renomination and re-election next year, but he now has at least one opponent who attracts significant media attention even though he is a small town mayor. Roselle Park is a city of approximately 14,000 people within populous Union County.

House

OR-5: Freshman Republican Gets First Opponent — Oregon freshman Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) has drawn her first 2024 opponent. Former congressional aide and political consultant Kevin Easton (D), who originally ran for the state’s new 6th District in 2022 only to suspend his campaign prior to the Democratic primary, announced that he will run in the 5th District in 2024.

In November, Chavez-DeRemer defeated former local California elected official Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D), 51-49 percent, to convert the new 5th District to the Republicans after the latter woman unseated veteran Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) in the May Democratic primary. After losing the primary, Schrader correctly predicted the seat would go Republican in the general election because he claimed McLeod-Skinner is well to the left of the district’s electorate.

Cities

Chicago: More Polling Fluctuation — We have covered several polls of the upcoming Chicago mayor’s campaign, and one more was released yesterday. This latest survey finds US Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago) rebounding from some previous polls that were showing him trending downward. The new Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategies survey conducted for four local Chicago news outlets (Jan. 31-Feb. 3; 625 likely Chicago primary voters; live interview) returns Rep. Garcia to the lead with 20 percent support followed by former Chicago Schools CEO Paul Vallas at 18 percent, and Mayor Lori Lightfoot placing a close third with 17 percent.

The non-partisan primary is scheduled for Feb. 28, and since it is clear no candidate will get close to the 50 percent mark, the top two finishers will advance to an April 4 primary. The polling is so tight that any two of the top five candidates could qualify for the April election. Should she make the runoff, the outlook for the secondary election is poor for Mayor Lightfoot, however. With more than 80 percent of voters first choosing someone other than the incumbent, the chances of her prevailing in a runoff would seem highly unlikely.

A Curiously Conflicting Georgia Poll

By Jim Ellis

“The negative driver for this [Georgia poll] appears to be President Biden.”

Feb. 1, 2022 — The Atlanta Journal-Constitution (AJC) released one of their regular Georgia statewide polls that the School of Public and International Affairs from the University of Georgia administers (Jan. 13-24; 872 registered Georgia voters, live interview) and the results reflect an electorate with some conflicting views.

While President Biden’s job approval ratio has taken a steep dive since the news entity’s May 2021 survey was published, and the right track/wrong track question is heavily lopsided toward the negative, the current statewide office holders and even the state legislature land in the positive approval realm. Yet, in the accompanying ballot test numbers, the tested Democratic officials are trailing despite brandishing the relatively positive approval ratios.

President Biden now records a combined 34:61 percent favorable to unfavorable index (13 percent strongly approve; 21 percent somewhat approve; 11 percent somewhat disapprove; 50 percent strongly disapprove), which is a huge net reduction of 32 percentage points from his combined 51:46 percent score in May (28 percent strongly approve; 23 percent somewhat approve; 9 percent somewhat disapprove; 37 percent strongly disapprove).

In the new January poll, the respondents believe, in a very poor 17:71 percent ratio, that the country is on the wrong track. They also feel Georgia is headed in the wrong direction, but with less intensity, 34:48 percent negative. The May AJC poll, with a shorter questionnaire, did not ask similar track questions.

The sense of the nation figures in the January study, however, also seem inconsistent with how these same respondents rate their elected federal officials. Sens. Raphael Warnock (D) and Jon Ossoff (D) record 44:35 percent and 43:35 percent positive ratios, respectively. This tells us that the sampling universe members don’t hold their senators particularly responsible for the country being on the perceived wrong track.

In another inconsistency, the senator who is on the 2022 ballot, Rev. Warnock, actually trails his prospective general election opponent, former Georgia and NFL football star Herschel Walker (R), despite the positive job approval sentiment. In this AJC poll, Walker holds a 47-44 percent lead. This latter finding is also consistent with a recent Quinnipiac University study (Jan. 19-24; 1,702 registered Georgia voters, live interview) that gave the challenger an edge, but with a smaller 49-48 percent split.

The governor’s numbers show a similar inconsistency. In Gov. Brian Kemp’s (R) case, while the state is viewed as headed in the wrong direction, the chief executive does not appear to be shouldering an excessive amount of blame. His job approval lies in the positive realm at 49:43 percent favorable to unfavorable. Paired with his likely general election opponent, 2018 gubernatorial nominee and former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D), Kemp leads 48-41 percent.

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