Tag Archives: Sen. Bernie Sanders

Kentucky, Idaho & Oregon

By Jim Ellis

May 18, 2016
— Primaries were held last night in three states, and there were no surprises to speak of, except perhaps how well Sen. Bernie Sanders continues to perform against presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton.

Kentucky

Voters headed to the polls in the Blue Grass State to choose nominees for state and federal offices. Only Democrats cast ballots in the presidential contest. Republicans met in caucus back in early March, so there was no accompanying GOP primary.

Sen. Rand Paul (R) seeks re-nomination for a second term, and facing only two minor opponents, he easily won. His general election opponent will be Lexington/Fayette County Mayor Jim Gray (D), who glided to a landslide nomination win over six minor Democratic candidates.

None of the five incumbents seeking re-election had any serious nomination threat. Minister Nancy Jo Kemper (D) was thought to potentially be a serious opponent for two-term Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) in the general election, but she had raised less that $150,000 for the race. All incumbents brushed back minor opposition. No Kentucky seat is expected to change hands in the general election. Continue reading

What Are They Seeing?

By Jim Ellis

May 17, 2016 — To listen to most media political pundits, the Democratic Party leaders, and even many Republican Party chieftains, one would think that Hillary Clinton is going to defeat Donald Trump in a November political tsunami.

Understanding that it is way too early to accurately predict the general election, the early polling numbers do not support the previous supposition. In fact, while the survey research certainly shows Clinton leading the race her margin is actually small, opposite to what one might conclude from watching and reading the various public pronouncements.

Six polls have been conducted since the 2nd of May from six different pollsters and all find Clinton leading the national popular vote. Now, we all know that the aggregate national vote does not elect a president, but it is a good gauge as to what people are thinking.

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Trump Towers

By Jim Ellis

May 12, 2016 — Though his presidential campaign opponents have dropped out of the race, it was still a point of curiosity to examine Donald Trump’s recorded percentages in the last two Tuesday primaries.

It was a foregone conclusion that he would win West Virginia – he’s done very well in coal country, and this state is in many ways the industry’s home – but Nebraska is likely a state that would have voted for Sen. Ted Cruz had the contested campaign continued.

True to form, Trump broke 75 percent of the vote in West Virginia and topped 60 percent in Nebraska. This suggests that many establishment Republicans coming out against him during the past week had little effect on the individuals voting in these two primaries.

Though Hillary Clinton remains the presumed Democratic nominee, she lost yet another primary. After she spoke out earlier about shutting down the coal industry — something that wouldn’t go over well in West Virginia — it was expected she would falter in the Mountain State. She did. True to form, Sen. Bernie Sanders beat her 51-36 percent. However, Clinton did manage to place first in the Nebraska primary, a beauty contest for Democrats since the delegates were apportioned weeks ago.

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The End; Sanders, Again; State Results

By Jim Ellis

May 5, 2016 — Speculation as to whether the Republicans would host their first contested, or brokered, presidential nominating convention since the 1940s ended when Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) suspended his presidential campaign after a bruising loss in Indiana.

Though the party nomination is still not officially, mathematically clinched, and won’t be for some time, Cruz’s departure followed a day later by Gov. John Kasich (R-OH) as an active candidate, leaves Donald Trump a solid month to campaign against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, boxing her in from the right while she must continue to court her party’s left base in order to become the nominee while the Democratic race still is ongoing. It will be an important period for Trump, since he will have a distinct short-term strategic advantage.

Indiana, as Trump has been saying since his major victory in the eastern regional primary April 26, proved to be definitive. The new unofficial nominee racked up a 53-37-7 percent victory over Cruz and Kasich, and possibly scored a backdoor winner-take-all result with a sweep of the statewide vote and possibly all nine Indiana congressional districts.

The CDs, which produce three delegates apiece for the candidate placing first in the particular domain, are going at least eight strong for Trump. The 3rd District (Rep. Marlin Stutzman-R) was not fully reported at this writing and Trump led Sen. Cruz here by only 926 votes. If he holds the 3rd, Trump will have secured a winner-take-all 57 delegates, far beyond the 39 he needed to establish a first ballot track.

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Nomination Tuesday – Yesterday

By Jim Ellis

May 4, 2016 — There will be no floor fight in Cleveland. With Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) exiting the presidential race last night after Donald Trump’s backdoor winner-take-all victory in Indiana, the nomination battle has effectively ended. Sen. Cruz’s campaign suspension announcement means that only Ohio Gov. John Kasich remains as an active Trump opponent.

Though Kasich has still yet to exit the race, his ability to stop a Trump first-ballot victory is non-existent. Long ago, Kasich was mathematically eliminated from a obtaining his own first-ballot win, and he now trails Trump by 870 delegate votes. To stay on the first ballot track before last night, Trump needed 39 delegates coming from Indiana. He blew away that metric by winning the statewide vote, all nine congressional districts, and 87 of 92 counties, which earned him all 57 delegates in Indiana’s winner-take-all by congressional district apportionment formula. Cruz realized such a margin and the momentum it was generating made denying Trump a pre-convention victory highly unlikely.

Ironically, it is now Sen. Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT), winner of last night’s Indiana Democratic primary popular vote, who says he will wage a floor fight at the national convention in Philadelphia. This will not happen, either.

Despite Sanders’ 52.5 percent win in Indiana, and carrying 74 of the 92 counties, it is still former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who leaves the state with a 46-44 delegate margin thanks to the Super Delegates. Needing only 19.4 percent of the outstanding delegates in the 14 remaining states and territories going into last night, Clinton easily exceeded her delegate quota projection and will clinch the nomination on June 7.

Below are the latest unofficial delegate results:

REPUBLICANS

CANDIDATE ESTIMATED DELEGATE COUNT
Donald Trump 1,023
Ted Cruz 570
Marco Rubio (out) 173
John Kasich 153
Others (out) 16
Uncommitted 92
Needed to win: 1,237 Remaining: 445

DEMOCRATS

CANDIDATE REGULAR DELEGATES SUPER DELEGATES
Hillary Clinton 1,702 527
Bernie Sanders 1,406 39

Total Clinton: 2,229
Total Sanders: 1,445
Needed to win: 2,383

Remaining: 1,114


• Delegate Count Source: Unofficial — The Green Papers website (for both parties)

• The Democratic totals include some Super Delegates who have announced their support for a candidate even though their states have not yet voted.


FLOOR FIGHT!! Hoosier Tuesday

By Jim Ellis

May 3, 2016
— The Indiana primary was never one that attracted much attention in early prognostications, but that has changed. Placed alone in early May, it appeared that either the Republican nomination battle would be over, or the candidates would be deadlocked and clearly headed to a brokered convention. Either way, the Hoosier State was not supposed to be a defining primary. Now, however, the Indiana winner-take-all by congressional district event may well provide the final momentum deciding election, at least for Republicans.

Originally, Indiana figured to be a Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) state, with him winning the 27 at-large delegates and most of the nine congressional districts (also 27 delegates, with three apiece going to the first-place finisher in the particular domain). Late polling, or at least seven of the final eight that were conducted in mid to late April, suggests, rather, a Donald Trump victory. To remain on his first ballot victory track with no unbound delegate votes, Trump needs to secure at least 39 delegates of the state’s 57-member contingent. Considering the polling results, though no study delved into individual CD’s, such a quota appears highly attainable.

Mathematically, no matter what happens later today, the Republican nomination will not be clinched. A big Trump win, however, could ignite such a momentum drive to overwhelm Sen. Cruz and cause the race to effectively be over. At least this is the unfolding scenario according to Trump … and, he may be right.

For the Democrats, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton needs less than 20 percent of the outstanding delegates to clinch her party’s nomination. Polling suggests the Indiana result will be close, but halving the delegates with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT) would still be a major victory for the national front-runner. It is now only a matter of time before Clinton becomes the official Democratic presidential nominee.

Below are the latest unofficial delegate results:

REPUBLICANS

CANDIDATE ESTIMATED DELEGATE COUNT
Donald Trump 966
Ted Cruz 570
Marco Rubio (out) 173
John Kasich 153
Others (out) 16
Uncommitted 92
Needed to win: 1,237 Remaining: 502

DEMOCRATS

CANDIDATE REGULAR DELEGATES SUPER DELEGATES
Hillary Clinton 1,663 520
Bernie Sanders 1,367 39

Total Clinton: 2,183
Total Sanders: 1,406
Needed to win: 2,383

Remaining: 1,206


• Delegate Count Source: Unofficial — The New York Times (for both parties)

• The Democratic totals include some Super Delegates who have announced their support for a candidate even though their states have not yet voted.


One Poll Has Cruz Up

By Jim Ellis

May 3, 2016 — Seven polls, all taken between April 13-28 testing today’s important Indiana Republican presidential primary, report similar information; yet one stands alone. Six studies find Donald Trump leading from between two and 15 points over Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), but one actually finds the opposite result and the margin isn’t even close.

The stand-alone survey comes from the Mike Downs Center at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne (IPFW) and projects the Texas senator to be holding a 45-29-13 percent lead over Trump and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. The methodology, however, appears flawed. The sampling period stretches over too long a period for a small respondent group of 400 likely Republican primary voters.

So, should this data be ignored? Not entirely. The six pro-Trump polls from April 18-27 (sample sizes range from 400 to 645) produced a wide range of responses suggesting that the electorate is fluid. The latest two surveys come from NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist College (April 26-28; 645 likely Indiana Republican primary voters) and the American Research Group (April 27-28; 400 likely Indiana Republican primary voters). Each shows Trump holding a substantial lead, but the surveys differ greatly relating to Gov. Kasich’s standing.

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