Tag Archives: Rep. Bill Pascrell

RFK Jr. Announcement Friday; Rep. Pascrell Passes Away; Close Poll in MD-6; DA Gascon Trounced in Poll

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 22, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Robert F. Kennedy Jr: Announcement Scheduled for Friday — It appears that Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., after pushing back against Democratic Party efforts to disqualify him from several state ballots, has scheduled a national announcement for Friday. Reports from both NBC and ABC News suggests that Kennedy will formally exit the race and endorse Donald Trump.

It remains to be seen if this story is true and, if so, just what effect it will have upon the other presidential candidates. At first glance, it appears the move will marginally help Trump, but over the remaining weeks of the campaign, such may prove not to be the case.

House

NJ-9: Rep. Bill Pascrell (D) Passes Away — A few days after being readmitted to the hospital, 87-year-old veteran Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-NJ) sadly passed away. His family issued the announcement yesterday. Rep. Pascrell is the fourth House member to pass away in this Congress, the second since the July 4th holiday, and the second from New Jersey. His death follows those of Reps. Donald McEachin (D-VA), Donald Payne Jr. (D-NJ), and Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX).

There are now four vacancies in the House, three from the members who have passed away, Reps. Jackson Lee, Payne, and Pascrell, and one from a resigned Rep. Mike Gallager (R-WI). The Pascrell vacancy reduces the House count to 220R – 211D – 4V (3D; 1R).

The open seat count headed into the election now grows to 55 with the Pascrell passing. Of these, 29 are in Democratic held districts with 25 from the Republican side, and one newly created seat within the new Alabama redistricting configuration. Another seven seats have been filled in special elections, and all but the CO-4 campaign feature new incumbents running for their first full term.

MD-6: Close Poll Released — In a surprising survey result, Public Opinion Strategies released a research study of Maryland’s 6th Congressional District for the Neil Parrott for Congress campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee (Aug. 6-11; 400 likely MD-6 general election voters; live interview). The results find Democratic nominee April Delaney leading Parrott, a two-time congressional nominee and ex-state Delegate, by only a 42-40 percent margin.

The district rates as R+1 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, while Dave’s Redistricting App publishes a 48.9D – 48.0R partisan lean. Yet, Parrott has not performed well in his two general election campaigns against Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac). Delaney still must be considered the favorite here and will enjoy a substantial resource advantage, but this poll suggests the Republicans have life.

Cities

Los Angeles DA: Gascon Trounced in Latest Poll — George Gascon (D), the Los Angeles County District Attorney who describes himself as the “godfather of progressive prosecutors,” and became the symbol of the DA’s who do not prosecuting minor crimes, may find himself out of office after the Nov. 5 election concludes.

A recently released University of California at Berkeley survey (July 31-Aug. 11; 1,136 Los Angeles County likely voters) projects Gascon trailing Independent candidate Nathan Hochman, 20-45 percent, respectively. In terms of approval rating, a total of only 21 percent say they have a favorable or somewhat favorable opinion of Gascon, as opposed to 45 percent who harbor an unfavorable or somewhat unfavorable opinion of him.

Trump Expands Huge Lead in Primary States; Craig Suspends Senate Campaign; Primary Averted in NJ-9

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump

South Carolina: Trump Expands Huge Lead — The international survey research firm YouGov, polling for CBS News (Feb. 5-10; 1,483 registered South Carolina voters; 1,001 likely South Carolina Republican presidential primary voters; online) finds former President Donald Trump expanding his previous ballot test lead over former UN ambassador and ex-South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley as the candidates move toward the Feb. 24 Palmetto State GOP primary. Trump secured 65 percent of the poll respondents’ support versus 30 percent for Haley.

Trump does much better as to who would perform better on all associated issue questions with the exception of which candidate is most likable. In terms of committed support, 87 percent of the individuals who say they support Trump report that their vote is firm. A total of 78 percent of Haley voters say the same about their support. A convincing Trump South Carolina victory in her home state will effectively end the Haley campaign.

Upcoming Primaries: Trump Way Ahead — The Morning Consult firm released the results of polls they conducted through key states with primaries on March 5, 12, and 19. The ballot tests are overwhelming in favor of former President Trump. In Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, and Ohio, Trump registers between 75 percent (Arizona) and 85 percent (Florida) of the Republican respondents. Haley posts support percentages only between 14 percent (Florida) and 20 percent (Illinois).

Senate

Michigan: Craig Suspends Senate Campaign — For the second election in as many cycles, retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) has ended a political campaign before the candidate filing process even concludes. Craig announced that he is suspending his statewide US Senate campaign but may instead turn to what could be an open Detroit mayoral race in 2025.

With Craig departing the Senate race, former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) looks to be in good shape. Also in the GOP race is ex-US Rep. Peter Meijer, while another former congressman, Republican-turned-Libertarian Justin Amash, remains a potential entrant. The Michigan candidate filing deadline is April 23 in association with the Aug. 6 primary. US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) is a prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

House

NJ-9: Primary Averted — State Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson) ended her primary challenge to veteran Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) after all three of the county Democratic Party organizations that comprise the 9th District voted to slate the 14-term incumbent. Therefore, Rep. Pascrell, who is 87 years old, will be a lock for the Democratic nomination and should again breeze to re-election in November.

New Jersey’s 9th Congressional District is anchored in Paterson and Passaic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+17. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks NJ-9 as the 84th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

Sen. Scott Moves Toward Candidacy; Nixon Son-In-Law Reinstalled in NY; Gaetz Won’t Challenge Sen. Scott; Rep. Pascrell, 87, Will Run Again

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 16, 2023

President

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R)

Sen. Tim Scott: Moving Toward Candidacy — The Hill newspaper is reporting that South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott is taking definitive steps to formally enter the Republican presidential campaign. This is not surprising since Sen. Scott has been considered a potential national candidate for months. It’s difficult, however, to see a victory path for the Palmetto State senator, especially with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley already in the field.

A Scott entry would presumably be helpful to Donald Trump, since the former president would be the beneficiary of a larger field, similar to the configuration that helped him win the 2016 nomination. Such is likely the case because Trump has a large, loyal base within the Republican Party, enough to carry him to a plurality win.

New York: Former Ex-Chairman Says Party Won’t Endorse — The New York Republican Party last week reinstalled their former state chairman, Richard Nixon son-in-law Ed Cox, to again lead the organization. The previous chairman, Nick Langworthy, was elected to Congress in November from the state’s 23rd District thus creating a vacancy in the chairman’s position.

In a statement Tuesday, Cox said that the state party would not issue an official endorsement in the presidential race in order to encourage all of the eventual GOP candidates to come to New York and compete for the state’s delegate base. He said this policy is consistent with their 2016 practice, the last time the Republicans had an open race for the presidential nomination. Cox previously chaired the state party organization from 2009 to 2019.

Senate

Florida: Rep. Gaetz Won’t Challenge Sen. Scott — Quelling recent speculation popping up that Florida US Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Ft. Walton Beach) might launch a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Rick Scott (R), the congressman issued a statement regarding the matter. Saying he would not oppose Scott for renomination, Rep. Gaetz quipped, “if I wanted to spend my time in a retirement community, I’d definitely choose The Villages over the Senate.”

House

NJ-9: One Less Retirement Prospect — Veteran New Jersey Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) announced that he will run for a 15th term next year thus ending speculation that he might retire from Congress. Rep. Pascrell will be 87 years old at the time of the next election. Before winning his House seat in 1996, he served simultaneously in the New Jersey state Assembly and as mayor of Paterson.

The congressman is expected to have little trouble winning re-election, despite his advanced age, in a 9th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+17. Dave’ Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean as 60.7– 37.1R. The New York City suburban CD includes the cities of Passaic, Paterson, and Clifton, the town of Kearny, and the borough of Oakland.