Tag Archives: New Hampshire

New Pappas-Sununu Data

Click on image to see full poll results.

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025

Senate

The University of New Hampshire just released another of their regular Granite State polls, and we see further evidence of a budding competitive open New Hampshire US Senate contest between Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R), son of former Governor and White House Chief of Staff John Sununu and brother of four-term New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu.

The UNH poll (Sept. 17-23; 1,361 New Hampshire adults; 1,235 likely general election voters; 529 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Pappas leading a ballot test question with ex-Sen. Sununu 49-43 percent, but the sampling universe leans more Democratic than the actual voting data suggests. Therefore, it is likely that Sununu is a bit closer to Pappas than this spread foretells.

If ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R), who ran for the New Hampshire Senate seat in 2014 and lost to now-retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 51-48 percent, were the 2026 Republican nominee the Pappas lead would grow to 52-37 percent. On the current Republican Senate primary ballot test, Sununu posts a landslide lead over Brown, 42-19 percent.

Several data points provide evidence that the poll skews somewhat Democratic, though the answers have been weighted to balance the responses, at least to a degree.

The skew clues come from several questions. In terms of setting the sampling parameters, the official state voter registration party preference categorization totals 32.0 percent Republican, 28.3 percent Democratic, and 39.7 percent Unaffiliated voters. Total registration is recorded at 1,099,033 individuals.

The UNH poll divides the party identification categories into two different questions. First, is the partisan-registered voter query, and this number is consistent with the official state voter reg totals. In the poll, the self-identified partisan total is 32-29-39 percent Republican, Democratic, and Unaffiliated voters.

A second “Party ID” cell segmentation, however, asks an additional question, and the responses swing toward the Democrats with a 44-41-14 percent partisan division (Democratic; Republican; Unaffiliated). It is surmised that the pollsters are attempting to see how the unaffiliateds break, which explains the partisan switch and the severe reduction from the actual number of Unaffiliated registered voters (39 percent) to those who self-identify as Unaffiliated (14 percent).

Such a partisan break is seemingly consistent with New Hampshire’s federal election results even though the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculations suggest a very different pattern.

In terms of the statewide partisan lean, DRA calculates a 52.0R – 45.2D party break. While the federal delegation (two Senators, two Representatives) is unanimously Democratic, the Republicans back home enjoy a statewide trifecta (Governor; majorities in both legislative houses). Thus, the voting split between federal and state offices is diametrically opposed. Together, these points largely explain the high number of close elections seen in the state over the past few years.

Perhaps the most definitive skew clue is the reported presidential vote within the polling sample. In the 2024 election, the actual vote count found then-Vice President Kamala Harris defeating then-former President Donald Trump with a 50.3 – 47.6 percent victory margin.

According to the poll respondents the presidential break is 51-45 percent in Harris’s favor; hence, these calculations suggest the 49-43 percent Pappas swing is potentially 2-3 percentage points closer.

Rep. Pappas was first elected to the House in 2018 after serving six years on the New Hampshire Executive Council [a unique five-member panel elected in districts that retains certain veto powers over the Governor relating to budget matters and personnel appointments], four years as Hillsborough (Manchester) County Treasurer, and four years in the state House of Representatives.

Pappas, in his four US House terms, has turned what was the most volatile congressional district in the United States (from 2004 thru 2016, NH-1 had defeated more incumbents that any CD in the country), into a safe domain for himself, thus bringing some political stabilization to the eastern New Hampshire area.

John E. Sununu was elected to the 1st District US House seat in 1996 and held the position for three terms. He was elected to the Senate in 2002, defeating then-Gov. Shaheen. Six years later, Shaheen returned to challenge Sen. Sununu, and successfully unseated him. She, of course, was then re-elected in 2014 and 2020.

Assuming Sununu enters the 2026 US Senate race, and all indications suggest he will, the New Hampshire open seat moves into the highly competitive category. Without Sununu as the GOP nominee, Rep. Pappas, who adroitly has positioned himself as the consensus Democratic candidate long before the state’s late September 8th primary, would see a clear path toward succeeding Sen. Shaheen.

The Return of John E. Sununu?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 9, 2025

Senate

GOP leaders were unsuccessful with one Sununu, but they may get another.

While national Republicans failed to recruit former Gov. Chris Sununu into the open New Hampshire Senate race, ex-US Sen. John E. Sununu, brother of the four-term Granite State chief executive, has been traveling throughout New Hampshire and confirms that entering the race is under consideration.

Ex-Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire Republican Senate nominee Scott Brown is an announced candidate, but he is trailing Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) in polling and currently would not make this open race a top-tier national campaign. A recent St. Anselm College poll (Aug. 26-27; 1,800 New Hampshire registered voters; online) found Rep. Pappas topping former Sen. Brown, 48-37 percent. Opposite state Sen. Dan Innis (R-Bradford), the Pappas lead expands to blow-out proportions, 48-30 percent.

Chris and John E. Sununu are the sons of former White House chief of staff in the George H.W. Bush Administration and ex-three term New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu. John E. Sununu served three terms in the US House, from 1997-2003, and was elected to the Senate, defeating then-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D), in 2002.

Six years later, Shaheen returned to unseat Sen. Sununu in the first Obama election and remains in office. Her announced retirement has placed the in-cycle New Hampshire seat into the open category.

New Hampshire is regarded as a swing state yet, except when facing the Sununu’s, Democrats typically win the competitive races. That paradigm changed, however, when former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R), who was defeated for re-election in 2016, rebounded to win the Governor’s campaign last November. Because New Hampshire is one of two states that limit their Governors to two-year terms – Vermont is the other – Gov. Ayotte will again be on the ballot in 2026.

New Hampshire has not been overly friendly to President Trump, because he failed to carry the state in all three of his elections. The average Trump Granite State vote is 46.5 percent, and his closest finish, which occurred in 2016, saw him coming within three-tenths of a percentage point from overtaking Hillary Clinton. Despite running well nationally in 2024, the President still lost a 50.3 – 47.6 percent New Hampshire decision to Kamala Harris.

Prior to Gov. Sununu publicly declining to run for the Senate, he led Rep. Pappas in early polling. In late March, Quantas Insights, for example, found Gov. Sununu running ahead of Rep. Pappas by a substantial 53-44 percent margin. Whether John E. Sununu can bring the race back into contention remains to be seen, but it is likely he will poll much closer to Rep. Pappas than any other potential Republican candidate.

For his part, Pappas, who was elected to the House in 2018 from the state’s eastern 1st District, won before an electorate that had defeated more incumbents than any in the country during the period between 2004 and 2018. Rep. Pappas has been able to secure the district, however, averaging 53.2 percent of the vote in his four congressional elections.

Prior to his service in Congress, Pappas was an elected member of the state’s unique five-member Executive Council, which has veto powers over a Governor’s appointments along with other duties and responsibilities. He previously won election as the Hillsborough County Treasurer and to the NH House of Representatives.

Declaring for the Senate immediately after incumbent Shaheen announced her retirement, Rep. Pappas has maneuvered himself into position as the consensus Democratic candidate and will have little trouble in securing the party nomination in September of next year.

Should John E. Sununu decide to enter the Senate race, it will be interesting to see if Brown will step aside. Because the legislature did not act upon Gov. Ayotte’s proposal to move the state’s primary to an earlier month, the GOP nominee could be in a significant underdog position after a bruising primary since so little time remains between the Sept. 8, 2026, primary and the subsequent November general election.

A Pappas-Sununu race would likely become highly competitive, placing the seat in play for the GOP. Therefore, the John E. Sununu potential candidacy is a developing story worth attention.

Senate: Early Open Seat Observations

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Senate

Senator and former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville

It appears that Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) will announce his campaign for Governor at some point this week.

Tuberville’s doing so will make the Alabama seat the sixth open Senate race for the 2026 election cycle, joining Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

Sen. Tuberville’s move toward the Governor’s contest looks ever more secure since Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth (R) announced late last week that he will not run. Earlier this month, his statements led observers to believe that he would be the only Republican willing to challenge the Senator in the Republican gubernatorial primary.

Previously, Ainsworth reiterated that he would not run for the Senate, making it clear that his eyes were on the Governorship. Therefore, his announcement of not running for Governor is quite surprising but likely a testament to Tuberville’s strength within the Republican base.

In the open Senate race, we can expect to see a crowded Republican field, but possibly only one major candidate on the Democratic side. While a Republican House member may or may not jump into the Senate skirmish, several state officials are likely to do so.

For the Democrats, former US Senator Doug Jones, who Sen. Tuberville unseated in 2020 with a 60-40 percent victory margin, is indicating that he is considering either entering the Senate or Governor’s race next year. With Tuberville headed to the Governor’s campaign, it is probable that Jones, if he decides to again run for office, will attempt to regain his Senate seat since that race will be open.

Three of the open Senate seats are already stabilizing. At the outset, the races in Illinois and Minnesota appear similar. Here, we see Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Tina Smith (D-MN) retiring, leaving hotly contested Democratic primaries in their wake. Republicans, on the other hand, don’t see a major candidate surfacing right now in either campaign.

The Illinois Democratic primary will be decided on March 17. The contest features two US House members, Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) and Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), along with Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton.

The Lieutenant Governor won endorsements from Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and the state’s junior Senator, Tammy Duckworth (D). Yet, Stratton and Rep. Kelly largely share the same major constituency, the Black community, and even hail from similar locations in the Chicago area. Therefore, the two have a high probability of splitting the same vote pool. Rep. Krishnamoorthi had almost $20 million in his campaign account at the end of the first quarter and may have better potential to attract downstate votes. In any event, this will be an interesting early race.

In Minnesota, with former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen already dropping out of the Democratic race, the contest, likely to be decided in an August primary, is already evolving into a close two-way affair between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).

Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) retiring after seven terms will leave this seat with a new occupant for the first time since 1985. Republicans are headed to a May primary battle between former Attorney General and 2023 GOP gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington).

The big unanswered question, however, is whether Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) will enter the race. He has won two statewide campaigns, including defeating Cameron in the 2023 general election. If the Governor runs for Senate, the open race becomes very much in play. Should he only focus on running for President in 2028, the eventual GOP nominee should have an easy walk in the general election.

The New Hampshire Senate race is already evolving into a general election contest even before state legislators decide if they will move the September primary to an earlier date.

Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is quickly uniting the Democratic Party behind his candidacy and looks to become a consensus candidate. He will have the advantage in November likely over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R), who is moving toward again locking down the GOP nomination. In 2014, he held Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) to a 51-48 percent re-election victory.

Finally, the Michigan race looks to be the one toss-up open Senate race. Republican former Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers returns for another shot but may have to win a Republican primary against Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland).

The Wolverine States Democrats are for sure headed to a contested primary. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) are already in the race, while term-limited Attorney General Dana Nessel may soon join the field. The 2024 general election was decided by just 19,006 votes, and it would not be surprising to see a similar result occur in 2026.

Georgia Gov. Kemp Out; Which
Other Governors Could Be In?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 8, 2025

Senate

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R)

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s announcement earlier in the week that he would not challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) next year was surprising to many but not all political observers.

In fact, it’s possible that we will see all of the Governors or ex-Governors who could run for the Senate in the various states take a pass on challenging a Senatorial incumbent or competing in an open seat situation.

The Kemp announcement now unfreezes the Republicans waiting in the wings who want to run statewide. Individuals who have expressed interest or at least confirm they are considering challenging Sen. Ossoff, include four members of the US House delegation. They are: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). Also counted among the possible candidates are state Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper and state Insurance Commissioner John King.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper conducted a statewide Georgia poll (April 15-24; 1,000 registered Georgia voters) and found Gov. Kemp, if he were to challenge Sen. Ossoff, leading the prospective race 49-46 percent.

Now, without Kemp in the candidate field, the advantage turns to Ossoff. The AJC poll found him leading King 51-38 percent, and topping Rep. Greene, 54-37 percent. Also tested was Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger who has said he’s considering a Senate bid but is more likely to enter the open Governor’s race. Raffensperger, however, polls best within this group against Sen. Ossoff, trailing 48-39 percent in the AJC poll. Reps. Carter, McCormick, and Collins were not tested.

The outlook suggests that the Georgia Republicans will now see a crowded Senate primary field, meaning it will become difficult for one candidate to win the nomination outright. The 2026 Peach State election calendar has not yet been set, but the likely statewide primary date will be May 19, 2026, with a runoff for the top two finishers, should no one reach the 50 percent threshold, probably scheduled for June 16. Therefore, the most plausible projection is that the Georgia GOP won’t have an official Senate nominee until late June of next year.

With Sen. Ossoff already possessing over $11 million in his campaign account, a number that will grow exponentially before the Republicans nominate their Senate candidate, he is in a favorable pre-election position.

Elsewhere, there are a dozen situations where a Governor or ex-Governor could conceivably run for an open Senate seat or challenge an incumbent of the opposite party.

Of the 12, we see one reverse situation. Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) appears intent on running for an open gubernatorial position.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could look at an open Senate seat campaign if Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) decides to run for Governor as expected, and Maine’s Janet Mills (D) could challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R) with the encouragement of many Democratic leaders. Neither, however, is likely to run for Senate because both are over or nearing 80 years old.

Aside from Gov. Kemp, four other Governors have already turned down opportunities to run for the Senate.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) has already endorsed Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D), while the Governor himself appears to be preparing a third run for his current position.

Term-limited Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is very likely to run for President in 2028 and will therefore bypass a run for her state’s open Senate seat.

Like Gov. Pritzker in Illinois, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, has endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan to replace retiring US Sen. Tina Smith (D). As with Pritzker, Gov. Walz is preparing to run for a third term.

New Hampshire ex-Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who like Gov. Kemp in Georgia would give the Republicans their best chance of converting a Democratic Senate seat, has also said he will not run in 2026. His future plans are only speculated upon, but a future presidential bid would not be out of the question.

Term-limited Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is not mentioned as a possible presidential candidate, but party leaders are encouraging her to challenge first-term Sen. Roger Marshall (R). It remains to be seen what the Governor will decide for 2026.

Two term-limited Governors and one ex-state chief executive are at the forefront of presidential prognostication, yet each sees a viable Senate situation developing in their respective state.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) could challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D) next year, since his one term will expire in early 2026. Though clearly looking at a presidential run, Gov. Youngkin, and any Republican, would face an uphill battle against Vice President J.D. Vance for the party nomination. A race against Sen. Warner would also be uphill, so Gov. Youngkin may see his electoral window closing.

On the Democratic side, Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) could enter what promises to be a very crowded 2028 Democratic presidential campaign. Should only one of these two run, that individual, either Beshear or Cooper coming from the southern region, would be a viable prospective nominee because of their opportunity to accumulate a large quantity of delegate support from the vote-rich South.

Signs are pointing to a situation where the aforementioned Governors or ex-Governors follow the Sununu and Kemp example and decline their party leaders overtures to launch a 2026 Senate campaign.

A Senate Review – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Senate

Today concludes our two-part series covering the latest in competitive US Senate campaigns. This edition examines developing contests in Michigan through Virginia.

In this report, if a state is not listed, it means the incumbent is currently expected to seek re-election and face little in the way of credible opposition.

Michigan — The 2024 open Senate contest surprisingly proved to be the tightest in the nation, so a second open contest in successive election cycles will draw much greater early national attention and resources. Republican former Congressman Mike Rogers, despite being badly outspent, lost to then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) by just 19,006 votes statewide. He returns to again battle for a Senate seat; this time left open because Sen. Gary Peters (D) is retiring.

Rogers should be a clear favorite for the Republican nomination, though Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) says he is considering entering the race. For the Democrats, Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) are announced candidates. Term-limited Attorney General Dana Nessel is also a potential Democratic candidate. Count on this race being considered a toss-up all the way through the Nov. 4, 2026, election day.

Minnesota — Sen. Tina Smith (D) is not seeking a second six-year term, which opens the door for a highly competitive Democratic primary. In the race are Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), and former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen. Others may join but count on this race advancing through the party endorsing convention to the August primary ballot.

Republicans, at this point, do not have a credible announced candidate, which means it is highly likely that Sen. Smith’s successor will be the Democratic primary winner.

New Hampshire — Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) will retire at the end of the current Congress, and Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is well on his way to becoming a consensus Democratic candidate long before next year’s candidate filing deadline. Already publicly endorsing Pappas are a host of New Hampshire Democratic leaders including Sen. Shaheen, the state’s junior Senator, Maggie Hassan, Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua), former four-term Gov. John Lynch, and ex-Rep. Annie Kuster.

Republicans lost their best candidate option when former four-term Gov. Chris Sununu declined to run. Ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who lost to Sen. Shaheen in 2014 on a 51-48 percent count, looks to be running again and could well win the nomination. Without Sununu in the race, however, the edge goes to the Democrats particularly with Rep. Pappas performing so well early.

North Carolina — This is yet another situation where party leaders are trying to convince a sitting or former Governor to challenge the opposite party’s incumbent Senator. Ex-Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who was ineligible to seek a third term in 2024 under his state’s election law, remains uncommitted about challenging Sen. Thom Tillis (R).

In the race for the Democrats, however, is former Rep. Wiley Nickel who did not seek re-election to a second term in 2024 because of an adverse redistricting map. Originally, Nickel said he would stand aside for Cooper but does not appear to be saying such any longer. This could be a clue that the former Governor will not run for Senate to instead prepare for a 2028 presidential campaign.

The nature of North Carolina politics suggests that the 2026 Senate race will again be close irrespective of whose running. The state traditionally features tight statewide elections in almost every cycle. Consider this race a toss-up, particularly if Cooper decides to run, though former Congressman Nickel will prove an able candidate.

Ohio — As in Florida, Ohio will host a special election to fill the balance of a current Senate term. After then-Sen. J.D. Vance was elected Vice President, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) appointed Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) to the Senate seat. Husted now must run in 2026 to fill the balance of the six-year term, and then again in 2028 for a full six-year stint.

Last week, former Representative and 2022 US Senate nominee Tim Ryan (D) announced he would not challenge Sen. Husted but still expresses interest in the Governor’s race.

Ohio is another state where potential candidates, in this case Democrats, are frozen in time waiting for a decision from another. Former three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who lost his seat to Bernie Moreno (R) in November, is a potential candidate for both Senate and Governor. Until Brown decides where to run, if anywhere at all, expect little movement among other prospective Democratic candidates.

South Carolina — Talk of a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham has died down since both Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) are looking toward an open Governor’s race. Sen. Graham showing almost $16 million in his campaign account also is dissuading potential challengers from both parties. At this point, expect Sen. Graham to have an easy road to re-election.

South Dakota — Recently, Sen. Mike Rounds (R) stated that he would not enter the open Governor’s race which would be an attempt to regain a political position he once held. Curiously, he did not announce a bid for re-election in declining to run for Governor.

Rounds is still expected to stand for election to the Senate in 2026, and with his state featuring a Governor’s race that could yield a major Republican primary battle, the two-term federal incumbent is expected to breeze through another re-election next year.

Texas — Several recent polls show incumbent Sen. John Cornyn badly trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is an announced Republican primary competitor. The polling, however, is not the full story.

A non-profit organization, Standing for Texas, is running ads in the major media markets with the exception of Rep. Wesley Hunt’s (R) hometown of Houston, positively profiling the Congressman and clearly laying the groundwork for a statewide run. Curiously, however, the latest polls do not include Rep. Hunt as a Senate candidate, even though signs are clear that he intends to enter the contest. The addition of Rep. Hunt, and/or other candidates, could certainly change the campaign trajectory.

Sen. Cornyn’s problem is that large numbers within the Texas GOP base believe him to be a RINO (Republican In Name Only) because he has strayed from the typical party position on several issues. A fair characterization or not, it is clear that Sen. Cornyn will have to neutralize this image in order to forge a winning coalition.

On the Democratic side, no major candidate has yet come forth but 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred, now a former Congressman, confirms he is considering returning for a 2026 campaign. Ex-Congressman and failed presidential, Senate, and gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke says he is not “closing the door” on entering the Senate race. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) is another possibility as is astronaut Terry Verts.

It appears we will see a great deal of early action from candidates in both parties for the Texas Senate race. The party primaries are scheduled for March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate secures majority support. Regardless of the outcome of each nomination contest, expect the Texas Senate campaign cycle to yield a tough and close months-long campaign.

Virginia — Sen. Mark Warner (D) is on the ballot for a fourth term, and unless Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) decides to challenge him, the Democratic incumbent should have little trouble again winning re-election. If the Governor does run, the contest will prove close, but the Senator would still be rated as at least a slight favorite to win the general election.

Gov. Youngkin is another of the state chief executives said to have presidential aspirations, so it remains to be seen if he is looking toward launching a national campaign, running for the Senate, or simply retiring from elective politics. Virginia is the only state in the country that limits its Governors to one term, so Youngkin’s future political options are narrow.

House Overview – Part III

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 25, 2025

House

Part III of our four-part House Overview analysis covers districts in Minnesota through New York. If a state is not listed, it means there are no major developments currently affecting the sitting incumbents.

Minnesota

MN-2 — Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is still reportedly contemplating entering the open Senate race but has yet to take any definitive action. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) continues to build party support, so if Rep. Craig is going to mount a challenge, she will have to make the decision in relatively short order. The Congresswoman raised over $1.2 million in the first quarter and has just over $1 million cash-on-hand. All that money would be transferable to a Senate race. Should she remain in the House, her re-election prospects would be strong in a moderately competitive 2nd District.

Nebraska

NE-2 — Five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) holds a Nebraska district that is one of the most politically marginal in the country. Over his tenure, the Congressman has averaged 50.6 percent of the vote in five competitive campaigns with a high of 51.3 and a low of 48.9 percent. In the last two electoral contests, Rep. Bacon defeated then-state Sen. Tony Vargas (D-Omaha) with 50.9 and 51.3 victory percentages. Twice, including the 2024 election, Rep. Bacon has held the seat even when the Democratic presidential candidate (Joe Biden 2020; Kamala Harris 2024) carried the district.

Democrats have NE-2 high on their target list but are looking for another candidate since Vargas has twice failed. Ophthalmologist Mark Johnson (D) has announced, but it is unclear if the party leadership will fully back his candidacy. Independent Dan Osborn, who ran well in the 2024 Senate race before losing to incumbent Deb Fischer (R), is reportedly looking at a Bacon challenge, but the Democratic leadership has made it clear they want to field their own candidate for this race. Therefore, Osborn is unlikely to challenge Rep. Bacon. The NE-2 campaign will be a key factor in determining which party controls the House in the next Congress.

Nevada

NV-3 — Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) will again face credible Republican competition when she seeks a fifth term next year. In 2024, the Congresswoman defeated first-time GOP candidate Drew Johnson 51-49 percent, in a district with a 51.7D – 43.7R partisan lean according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. The seat has run closer in House campaigns than this rating suggests, however. In her four victorious congressional races, Rep. Lee has averaged only 51.0 percent of the vote.

Already three Republican candidates, including 2024 contender Marty O’Donnell, have entered next year’s 3rd District campaign, while Johnson confirms that he is considering making a comeback attempt. This Las Vegas-anchored seat will once again be a major GOP target in the ensuing election.

NV-4 — Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas) was originally elected in 2012 but was defeated in 2014 before regaining the seat four years later. Rep. Horsford will be favored for a sixth non-consecutive term next year, but he again may have already drawn significant Republican opposition. Three GOP businessmen have declared their candidacies, but it remains to be seen if any can mount a serious campaign.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 52.6D – 42.1R partisan lean, which appears accurate based upon the latest voting trends. In November, Horsford defeated former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee (R), 53-45 percent.

New Hampshire

NH-1 — Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has already announced his intention to run for the open Senate seat now that incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D) has made public her intention to retire. The 1st District electorate, which defeated more incumbents than any district in the country from 2004 until Pappas secured the seat after his initial election in 2018, can certainly be characterized as one of the most politically marginal in the country. NH-1 will be a major target for both parties.

The candidate field will take some time to gel, but both parties can count on witnessing crowded primaries. The question looming over all potential candidates, however, is how will the election schedule change? Legislation is pending to move the state’s late September primary to either June, as Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) supports, or August. The 2026 calendar will be decided before the legislature adjourns at the end of June.

New Jersey

Democratic Delegation — The current 2025 open Governor’s race could have a major effect on New Jersey’s Democratic congressional delegation since two of its nine members are in the statewide race. If either Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), who is staked to a tenuous lead in most polls, or Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) wins the office, the victor’s current congressional seat will then go to special election upon the incumbent’s resignation.

The party primary is scheduled for June 10, so we will know much more after that election. The Democratic nominee will at least be a slight favorite in the general election presumably against 2021 GOP gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli.

NJ-7 — Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) was re-elected in November from his politically marginal north-central New Jersey congressional district with a 52-46 percent victory margin. Already, seven Democrats have announced their candidacies, which features several businessmen, local officials, and activists. The eventual Democratic nominee will have to spend heavily in order to secure the party nomination in June of 2026. Rep. Kean will certainly have another tough fight on his hands, and NJ-7 will again host a national congressional race that could be a bellwether in deciding the next House majority.

NJ-9 — Veteran state legislator Nellie Pou (D-Borough of North Haledon) succeeded the late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) who passed away during the campaign season. Her victory was not a surprise, but her small 51-46 percent victory over sales consultant Billy Prempeh was much closer than expected. Prempeh spent less than $50,000 on his campaign and attracted no national support. The GOP nominee is running again, and it remains to be seen if the National Republican Congressional Committee will target this budding re-match.

New York

NY-4 — It appeared that we would see the third iteration of the Laura Gillen (D) vs. Anthony D’Esposito (R) campaign, but the latter man accepting a federal appointment from President Donald Trump means the Republicans must now find a new candidate. In 2022, D’Esposito scored the surprise election win of the night in defeating Gillen, then a town supervisor. She returned in 2024 to unseat D’Esposito who immediately announced he would seek a re-match.

The 4th District favors the Democrats (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 53.4D – 45.8R), but the last few elections have proven the seat can be highly competitive. Long Island’s 4th CD will appear on the GOP target list, but the race will be defined once Republicans recruit a viable candidate.

NY-15 — The Bronx anchored 15th CD is not competitive in the general election (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 86.4D – 12.9R), but it may host a hotly contested Democratic primary if incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) decides to launch a challenge to Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in her bid for renomination. State Assemblywoman Amanda Septimo (D-South Bronx) has announced her congressional candidacy in anticipation of Torres running statewide. This primary contest will become defined once the Congressman makes a final determination about entering the Governor’s race.

NY-17 — GOP Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) has twice won this Democratic district, but he may not be on the ballot for a third term. Lawler is exploring a run for Governor, but it remains unclear whether he will enter the statewide contest or seek re-election. If the latter, a pool of five well-heeled Democrats await him. The Democratic primary will be a fight with the winner crowned in late June of next year. Rep. Lawler is clearly a formidable campaigner, so if he decides to run for re-election we can expect another strong effort. Should this become an open seat, Democrats will have the inside track toward returning NY-17 to their column.

NY-21 — Since a special election was supposed to occur in this district because incumbent Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) was originally nominated for the position of US Ambassador to the United Nations but then withdrawn, Democrats find themselves with a very well-funded candidate for next year’s campaign.

Though the North Country’s NY-21 is a Republican seat (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 58.5R – 40.2D), Democratic dairy farmer Blake Gendebien, who the local Democratic Party county chairmen chose as their nominee for what they thought was an impending special election, has already raised just over $3 million with a touch north of $2 million remaining in his campaign account.

Therefore, the NY-21 general election has the potential of becoming competitive but mainly if Rep. Stefanik does not seek re-election. The Congresswoman is said to be considering a run for Governor and could certainly receive another appointment from President Trump, since Republicans figure that holding her seat in a regular general election is easier than for a stand-alone special.

Sununu Out; James In

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 10, 2025

New Hampshire

Former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R)

Saying he believes the Republicans have a strong chance to win the open New Hampshire US Senate seat in 2026, former Gov. Chris Sununu (R) put an end to the public speculation that he may become a candidate.Sununu said it is not the right time for him to run for the Senate, which is consistent with his action when Republican leaders previously approached him about launching a Senate campaign.

Former Massachusetts US Sen. Scott Brown (R), who moved to New Hampshire after he was defeated for re-election in 2012, challenged Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) two years later. The three-term incumbent, who has already announced her retirement when the current Congress adjourns, defeated Brown, 51-48 percent. It is apparent that the former Massachusetts Senator is intent on running again.

Frank Edelblut, Commissioner of the New Hampshire Department of Education, is also a potential candidate. Then-Gov. Sununu originally appointed him to his current position and the new Governor, former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R), kept him in place. Ex-White House aide and two-time congressional candidate Matt Mowers is another Republican potential candidate. For now, however, it appears that former Sen. Brown is the front-runner for the party nomination.

Late last week, four-term US Rep. Chris Pappas of Manchester announced his intention to run and appears as the clear front-runner for his party’s nomination. He has a strong chance of becoming a consensus Democratic candidate.

It was obvious that recruiting former Gov. Sununu would give the Republicans their best chance of converting this Senate seat. It remains to be seen how competitive the Republicans can be against Rep. Pappas, but sans Sununu, the Democrats regain the early advantage.

Michigan

Michigan Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills)

The anticipated hot open Michigan Governor’s campaign came into better focus.

As expected, two-term US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) announced that he will enter the Governor’s race, striving to succeed term-limited incumbent Gretchen Whitmer (D).

James has twice run statewide. In 2018, he challenged US Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) and then ran again two years later opposite Sen. Gary Peters (D). James drew national attention in holding Sen. Stabenow to a tighter than expected 52-46 percent margin spread. In 2020, the political battle ended in even closer fashion, 50-48 percent, in Sen. Peters’ favor.

Redistricting in the following year created an open US House seat in his home area. James would win a half-point 2022 victory over former local judge and prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D), and then scored a six-point re-election victory this past November against the same opponent.

The 2026 Michigan Governor’s race will likely be unique among all statewide elections in that it has the chance of becoming a legitimate three-way contest.

On the Republican side, many cast Rep. James as the early front-runner for the party nomination even with polling showing a close contest between he and 2022 gubernatorial Republican nominee Tudor Dixon. It is not clear, however, if she will again run for Governor. Former Attorney General Mike Cox is also taking steps to organize a gubernatorial campaign along with state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Paw Paw).

The Democrats also have nomination competition. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is an announced candidate, and polling posts her to an early lead. Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist recently entered the race, as did Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson.

The third contender, and one who will advance directly into the general election because he is running as an Independent, is three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan. The municipal chief executive was first elected in 2013 and subsequently re-elected in 2017 and 2021. It was a surprise when he entered the race, not because he became a statewide candidate but for declaring as an Independent. Previously, he had run as a Democrat.

With Duggan having an obvious political base in Detroit, the state’s largest city, a potential Benson-James-Duggan race is set to become the wild card race of the 2026 national election cycle.