Tag Archives: Mike Huckabee

Christie In; Trump Ties for Second in Michigan

July 2, 2015 — Returning to his high school roots in Livingston, NJ Tuesday, Gov. Chris Christie officially became the 16th Republican presidential candidate when he declared his political intention at a rally-style announcement event. It is apparent that three more current or former governors will soon follow suit, bringing the record-size field of candidates to 19. Wisconsin’s Scott Walker, John Kasich of Ohio, and former Virginia chief executive Jim Gilmore will each enter the race in July.

Saying that he’s “ … not looking to be prom king of America,” Gov. Christie elaborated, telling the assembled group and media that, “I mean what I say and I say what I mean and that’s what America needs right now.”

Christie has a long way to go in order to propel himself into the top tier of Republican candidates. Languishing in mid-single digits in most polls, usually with an upside-down personal favorability ratio, Christie will have a difficult time developing a path to the GOP nomination. Positioning himself to the left of the typical Republican primary voter with a brash personal style that many people find offensive, the Jersey governor will have to rebuild his personal image before he can hope to effectively compete for the nomination.
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How Bush, Kasich, Rubio Line Up
in Three Key Swing States

June 22, 2015 — Quinnipiac University released the second part of their June 4-15 polling set for the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The follow-up data covers the early primary polling results for each place. The sample sizes are small: 458 Republicans and 378 Democratic primary voters in Florida, 434R; 388D in Ohio, and 413R; 402D for Pennsylvania, which of course decreases reliability.

That being the case, the three Republican polling leaders are former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush in the Sunshine State, Ohio Gov. John Kasich in his home domain, and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) for Pennsylvania. But, in all cases, the margins are small and the field is bunched close together. In the aggregate, the three states account for 236 delegates — FL: 99 Winner-Take-All; OH: 66 likely Winner-Take-All; PA: 71 likely Loophole (voters select individual delegates) — which represent 9.5 percent of the entire Republican nominating universe.

In Florida, Bush tops Sen. Rubio by only two points, 20-18 percent. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker trails in third place with nine percent. Dr. Ben Carson and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee are next with seven and six percent, respectively. All other candidates finish at five percent and below.
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Q-Polls: In the Swing States,
Hillary is Both Up and Down

June 19, 2015 — On the surface, the numbers from three key polls look good for former Secretary of State and First Lady Hillary Clinton (D), but the underlying figures tell a different story.

Quinnipiac University released simultaneous polls in a trio of key states, places where the pollster says no candidate since 1960 has been elected without carrying two of the three. Hence, respondents in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania were randomly queried. The questions were posed during the June 4-15 period and the sample sizes ranged from a low of 970 (PA) to a high of 1,191 (OH). The format included hypothetical ballot tests between Clinton and various Republican candidates, in addition to asking personal favorability and political environment questions.

Clinton does well on the ballot tests. In Florida, she leads both Sunshine State GOP favorite sons Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio. Clinton tops Bush 46-42 percent, and Rubio 47-44 percent. Her best performances are against Ohio Gov. John Kasich (13-point spread), and Gov. Chris Christie (NJ), Sen. Ted Cruz (TX) and ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee (AR), each by 11 percentage points.
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With Bush Officially In, New Polls Suggest Broker

June 17, 2015 — Just as former Florida governor and presidential son and brother Jeb Bush formally declared his national candidacy, several new polls were released all pointing to Republicans’ having no clear leader. The surveys provide further evidence that the underpinnings for a brokered convention continue to solidify.

Monmouth University (June 11-14; 1,002 adults; 351 likely Republican voters) released the results of their national poll, while the Morning Consult group (weekly surveying equaling 2,000 respondents; combination of live phone interviews and online responses) simultaneously tested the Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina Republican electorates.

National polls, particularly in nomination contests, are not particularly useful because the contests are state-based. But, they can be a good momentum indicator. In this instance, Monmouth, using a very small 351-person sample segment, finds Dr. Ben Carson leading the group of 16 candidates but with just 11 percent preference.
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Perry Makes Ten; North Carolina Shaping up as Major Battleground

June 8, 2015 — Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) announced for the presidency last week, becoming the tenth official GOP candidate; more are coming.

Perry will run nationally for the second time. As you will remember, his last campaign ended with him making a major debate gaffe when he couldn’t recall the federal agencies that he was promising to eliminate. In addressing how this campaign will overcome the mistake of the past, Perry former chief of staff and 2012 communications director Ray Sullivan said that “ … people realize that what the governor did in the high-profile debate, stumble, everyone has done as some point in their lives. I think he’s already earned a second look, particularly in Iowa.”

Arguably, had he not self-destructed during the early 2012 stages, Perry may well have defeated Mitt Romney and the rest of the field to become the party nominee. His record as the longest-serving governor in Texas history is strong, and plays well to a Republican primary electorate. He was polling at, or near, the top of the 2012 polls at the time of his well-publicized debate mishap.

The big question for Perry goes beyond whether or not he can repair his reputation from mis-speaking. In the 2012 race, the then-governor raised over $20 million for his campaign effort and considerably more was invested in various super PACs that were supporting him. But, at that time he was the sitting governor of the nation’s second largest state. Now, as a former state chief executive who failed badly in his first presidential run, it is believed his fundraising apparatus will generate far less this time around.
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