By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 30, 2025
North Carolina
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) / Photo by Gage Skidmore
North Carolina was already going to host one of the most competitive races in the country considering its history of often posting close election results. It was also clear that Sen. Tillis was the top incumbent Republican target.
While the state’s perennial competitiveness factor isn’t changing, the candidate list will now be very different than expected. To date, Sen. Tillis was drawing only minor Republican primary opposition, though, that would have changed with President Trump pledging to find a GOP candidate to oppose him, while Democrats are working to attract a big name nominee.
Democrats already have former Rep. Wiley Nickel as an announced candidate. Nickel passed on re-election to a second term in a restructured 13th District seat and instead declared in 2023 that he would run for the Senate. Irrespective of Nickel’s status, the Democratic leadership has been trying to recruit former Gov. Roy Cooper into the Senate race, and we will soon see if the Tillis retirement spurs a decision from the former state chief executive.
In addition to its two Republican Senators, North Carolina has 10 statewide elected offices and both parties each hold five offices. The more prominent state officials, i.e., Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General, are all Democrats, however.
Sen. Tillis’s retirement will change the North Carolina and national political situation for both parties, and this open Senate race will be one of the 2026 election cycle’s key focal points.
VA-11
Local Northern Virginia Democratic and Republican parties hosted their “firehouse primaries” on Saturday that produced special general election candidates to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) who passed away in March.
For the Democrats, who dominate Virginia’s 11th Congressional District, Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (who received the Connolly family’s endorsement and had served for 11 years as Rep. Connolly’s chief of staff) was easily nominated in Saturday’s primary, capturing 60 percent of the vote. State Delegate Irene Shin (D-Herndon) was a distant second with 14.3 percent while state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville) attracted 13.4 percent.
On the Republican side, former FBI agent and Iraq War veteran Stewart Whitson was the plurality “firehouse primary” winner, though GOP turnout, as expected within this overwhelmingly Democratic district, was only a fraction of their political rivals’. According to the Fairfax County local news site, Inside NOVA, 37,624 voters participated in the Democratic firehouse primary as opposed to the Republicans’ 2,601 ballots cast.
The “firehouse primary” is a creation of Virginia politics. In this system, all voters may participate but the polling place locations are very limited, making it more difficult to vote than the usual process of simply going to one’s regular precinct voting site.
Walkinshaw and Whitson now advance to the Sept. 9 special general election that will be held under regular logistics where voters cast their ballots at the precinct polling place. An early voting process will also be offered.
Clearly, in a district with a Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation of 67.2D – 30.7R (Trump ’24: 31.4 percent), Walkinshaw becomes the prohibitive favorite to replace Connolly.
The Virginia election is the first of the four special elections that we will see in the coming months.
The next special nomination contest will occur in Arizona when voters in the Tucson area will select general election candidates to replace the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) who also passed away in March.
The late Congressman’s daughter, former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D) is the clear favorite to win the special Democratic primary on July 15. The special general will be conducted on Sept. 23. As in VA-11, Arizona’s 7th CD is heavily Democratic (DRA partisan lean: 65.5D – 32.3R; (Trump ’24: 38.4 percent).
Houston voters will participate in a jungle primary concurrent with the Texas municipal elections on Nov. 4 to begin to select a replacement for the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston), the third member to pass away in March.
In that election, voters will choose from a large developing field including candidates from all parties and those running as Independents. If no one receives majority support in the initial election, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will then schedule a special runoff vote. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean in this district is also overwhelmingly Democratic, 73.6D – 24.4R (Trump ’24: 29.4 percent), making TX-18 the Lone Star State’s second-safest Democratic seat.
The fourth special election will occur at some point in Tennessee. Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) said he will resign from the House after the President’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” in fully enacted. Once the resignation is official, Gov. Bill Lee (R) will then schedule the replacement special election.
Unlike the other three vacant, or soon-to-be vacant, seats, TN-7 is safely Republican. The partisan lean in this western Tennessee district is 55.1R – 42.1D (Trump ’24: 60.4 percent).