Tag Archives: Arizona

Senate Races Tightening

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 1, 2024

Senate

Former news anchor and 2024 Senate GOP nominee Kari Lake. Photo by Gage Skidmore

As the election cycle culminates, recent polling is showing no less than seven US Senate races all within two percentage points or less.

After a summer of substantially trailing US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) in the open Arizona Senate race, a trio of polls find former Phoenix news anchor Kari Lake (R) narrowing the gap between the two contenders.

The three surveys, from The Trafalgar Group, Data Orbital, and AtlasIntel, all taken during the Oct. 24-29 period with sampling universes ranging between 550 and 1,458, produce ballot test scores with Lake closing to within four points (Trafalgar) and one point (AtlasIntel), and with her actually leading by a point (Data Orbital) in the final survey.

The AtlasIntel group has conducted a series of Senate polls. In Michigan (Oct. 25-29; 983 likely Michigan voters) the pollsters see Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s (D-Lansing) lead over former US Rep. Mike Rogers (R) dropping to just two percentage points, 49-47 percent.

The New York Times and Siena College tested the surprisingly tight Nebraska race where Independent Dan Osborn is challenging two-term Republican Sen. Deb Fischer. The poll (Oct. 23-26; 1,194 likely Nebraska voters) finds a two-point lead for the incumbent, which is a rebound from other studies that showed her trailing. The ballot test yields Fischer a 48-46 percent margin.

The Trafalgar Group research organization also finds that the Nevada race between Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) and Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R) is closing to within two points, a major change in a contest where the incumbent appeared to have a secure lead. The Trafalgar data (Oct. 25-28; 1,082 likely Nevada voters) projects Sen. Rosen leading, 47-45 percent.

Trafalgar also returned results for the Ohio Senate race featuring Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and businessman Bernie Moreno (R). This poll (Oct. 25-28; 1,127 likely Ohio voters) sees the senator leading with a bare edge of 48-47 percent.

AtlasIntel tested the tight Pennsylvania race (Oct. 25-29; 1,299 likely Pennsylvania voters) and they also see a two-point race evolving. The ballot test gives Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) a 49-47 percent margin over GOP businessman and retired hedge fund CEO David McCormick.

From Oct. 20-27, eight polls from eight different polling firms were conducted of the Wisconsin Senate race. In one of the surveys, both Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) and businessman Eric Hovde (R) were tied. In the other seven polls, the margin is one point. Sen. Baldwin led in five of the surveys, while the OnMessage and Insider Advantage firms found Hovde holding the slight edge. The bottom line is that this race is effectively a dead heat.

As we approach Election Day, we see not only the Senate races getting closer, but the presidential contest coming down to just a few electoral votes in a limited number of states, and a House majority that could literally be decided by one or two campaigns.

Even at this late date, it is still possible for both parties to capture a legislative trifecta. That is, where one party controls the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. Should Vice President Kamala Harris win the presidency, and either Sens. Fischer or Ted Cruz (R-TX) go down and/or Sen. Jon Tester rebounds (D) and pulls a come-from-behind win in the Montana race, the Democrats could conceivably retain Senate chamber control. In the House, the Democrats could certainly score a close majority.

Conversely, former President Donald Trump could win the presidency and Republicans almost certainly flip West Virginia and Montana Senate races, and possibly one or two more from the list above. With momentum at the top of the ticket, the House battles could see a more favorable turnout pattern thus allowing enough GOP challengers to prevail and retain their slight majority. This would create a Republican trifecta.

At this point, where the campaigns are almost complete and all that remains is the counting, as much uncertainty remains today as was present at the beginning of the election cycle.

Harris Cancels Ad Buy; Lake Closes Gap in Arizona; Lawler Hanging On in NY-17; Cartwright Leading in PA-8

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Ad Transfer: Musk Reports Harris Canceling North Carolina Ads — Elon Musk broke the story on X that Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign is canceling a $1.7 million ad buy in North Carolina. There is a belief that the money will be used for a new ad purchase in Virginia. A recent poll from Quantas Insights (Oct. 22-25; 725 likely Virginia voters) found Harris leading former President Donald Trump by only one percentage point in the Old Dominion. Other polls conducted of the Virginia electorate in the similar time frame, from the Washington Post/George Mason University and Christopher Newport University, see Harris holding much larger leads at six and 11 points, respectively.

The Harris ad move makes sense if the campaign strategists believe there is some weakness in Virginia, and possibly New Hampshire, because Harris winning North Carolina would be a luxury but not a necessity. Winning there would mean an early clinch, but Virginia and New Hampshire are must-wins in order to maintain Harris’s overall winning coalition of states.

Senate

Arizona: Lake Closing the Gap — After a summer of substantially trailing Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) in the open Arizona US Senate race, a trio of polls finds former Phoenix news anchor Kari Lake (R) narrowing the gap between the two contenders.

The three surveys, from The Trafalgar Group, Data Orbital, and AtlasIntel, all taken during the Oct. 24-29 period with sampling universes ranging between 550 and 1,458, see ballot test scores with Lake closing to within four points (Trafalgar) and one point (AtlasIntel), with her actually leading by a point (Data Orbital) in the final survey.

The fact that we see three pollsters coming within the polling margin of error, and one that pushes Lake ahead for the first time since the two candidates were even in a National Republican Congressional Committee at the end of July, suggests that this race should draw more attention in the closing week.

House

NY-17: Rep. Lawler Hanging On — Freshman New York Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River), one of the most endangered House incumbents for this election cycle, received good news from a new Emerson College poll (for the Hill Newspaper; Oct. 24-26; 475 likely NY-17 voters; multiple sampling techniques). The ballot test found Rep. Lawler leading former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D) by five percentage points, 49-44 percent.

Rep. Lawler unseated then-Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Sean Patrick Maloney in 2022 from a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated as D+7. The Down Ballot political blog ranks the seat as the sixth most vulnerable district in the House Republican Conference.

PA-8: Rep. Cartwright Leading Again — Six-term Pennsylvania US Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) has held what was transformed into a Republican seat since former President Trump carried a different version of the district back in 2016. A new Noble Predictive Insights survey (Oct. 23-25; 406 likely PA-8 voters; live interview and text) again finds Democratic Rep. Cartwright leading, this time against GOP businessman Rob Bresnahan, 50-43 percent.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 8th District as R+8. The Down Ballot political blog ranks the seat as the fourth most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. At this point in early voting, more Democrats have cast ballots, which is typical for Pennsylvania. Republicans, however, are up seven points from their 2020 performance in this district and 10 points when compared to 2022. Conversely, Democrats are off almost seven points from 2020 and 11 points from 2022.

Rep. Cartwright has won his last two elections with 52 and 51 percent in 2020 and 2022. The 2024 election will likely end closer than the Noble poll suggests, but Rep. Cartwright still must be considered the favorite to win another term.

Catholic Voter Survey Results Show Trump Ahead; Michigan Senate Race Heats Up; Rep. Bishop in Tight Georgia Race; Conflicting CA-49 Data

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 17, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump holds a large swing state lead according to a Catholic voter survey.

Catholic Voter Survey: Voters Leaning Toward Trump — The National Catholic Reporter commissioned a voter survey in seven swing states, and particularly in Michigan and Wisconsin, former President Donald Trump has opened a large lead: a dozen points in Michigan and 18 in Wisconsin.

Looking at the seven states as a whole, Trump holds a 50-45 percent advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris within the Catholic sample. The survey was conducted by Mercury Analytics (Oct. 3-8; 1,172 Catholic voters in AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA and WI; online). Harris, however, does well with black (77 percent support) and Hispanic (67 percent support) Catholics within this sampling universe. Trump dominates among white voters with a 16 percent advantage.

Interestingly, the NCR analysis indicated that the Catholic respondents, “were more likely to say they support their preferred candidate for reasons that go against [Catholic] church teaching, with Trump supporters favoring his anti-[illegal] immigration policies and Harris voters backing her views on reproductive rights.”

In the swing states, the largest Catholic percentage of the state population is in Wisconsin (25 percent) and Nevada (25 percent), with Pennsylvania closely following (24 percent). Arizona (21 percent) and Michigan (18 percent) are next, while Georgia (nine percent) and North Carolina (nine percent) lag behind.

Senate

Michigan: Republicans Up Investment — The Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) firms partnered on a Michigan voter poll for AARP (Oct. 2-8; 600 likely Michigan voters from a universe of 1,382 registered Michigan voters; live interview and text) and the results project that Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) holds a 49-46 percent edge over former Rep. Mike Rogers (R). The presidential vote, as a point of reference, was tied a 46 percent apiece between Harris and Trump.

The results of this and other similar polls were enough to convince the Senate Leadership Fund to spend an additional $10.5 million in media time. The new expenditure brings the SLF entire investment to $33 million. It appears the three Senate races in which Republicans see recent positive movement are Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

House

GA-2: Rep. Bishop (D) in Surprising Close Race — Georgia Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Albany) was first elected to Congress in 1992 and has rarely had a close election. A newly released survey from the co/efficient polling firm (Oct. 3-4; 847 likely GA-2 voters; live interview & text) for Republican nominee Wayne Johnson finds the challenger trailing Rep. Bishop by just three percentage points, 45-42 percent. This is a race that had not been considered competitive and has drawn little in the way of national attention.

Georgia’s 2nd District carries a partisan rating of D+4, according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Down Ballot political blog ranks GA-2 as the 36th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. Though the seat had not been considered in play, it will now be watched for further developments. Whether outside groups from either side begin spending late money here is a point to be observed.

CA-49: Conflicting Data — As recently as last week, a Survey USA poll of California’s coastal 49th District (Oct. 2-6; 617 likely CA-49 voters) found that three-term Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) was comfortably ahead of Republican Matt Gunderson by a 12-point margin, 53-41 percent. Now, the National Republican Congressional Committee has countered with their 1892 organization survey that produces a much different result.

According to the 1892 data (Oct. 5-8; 400 likely CA-49 voters), the gap separating the two candidates is only one point, 46-45 percent, in Rep. Levin’s favor. The nature of this district suggests a close Democratic edge (FiveThirtyEight: D+5), so chances are that the wide range of these two polls likely lands in the middle. Therefore, Rep. Levin must still be viewed as residing in the favorite’s position.

Political Overtime

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 14, 2024

Election Day

It is quite possible that we will not know the outcome of the presidential election or certainly the US House majority on election night, meaning an undetermined number of days will be required to finally arrive at a definitive winner, or sets of winners in an US House election cycle that promises to deliver multiple tight finishes.

Close elections will bring much scrutiny, and outcomes of several key races in such a situation may not occur until shortly before the state election certification deadline, which in some instances means the middle of December.

There is a strong likelihood that we will see US Senate results on election night. With West Virginia sure to flip from Democrat to Republican and the Montana race today leaning decidedly Republican could mean that a new GOP majority would be announced on election night.

Should, however, an unexpected upset of a Republican member, i.e., Sens. Rick Scott (FL), Deb Fischer (NE), or Ted Cruz (TX), occur, then political overtime is possible, and an extended counting period would come into play if the affected races’ outcomes will determine majority control.

The presidential election is already coming down to seven key swing states, and the domain in this category with the longest certification period is Georgia with a 2024 certification deadline of Dec. 27. The battleground state with the shortest certification period is Nevada, which is Nov. 19.

The unofficial Arizona deadline is Dec. 2; Michigan is Nov. 25; North Carolina will be Nov. 26; and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are both unofficially scheduled to certify their election results by Nov. 28.

Therefore, if only a few votes in one or more of these states or districts is separating the candidates and the outcome is unclear, then it could be close to a month after election day until we discover a winner. Thus, 2024 could be reminiscent of the 2000 election in Florida, which consumed 36 days to finally determine that George W. Bush had won the state and thereby the election.

The most likely political overtime scenario, however, involves the House majority. Currently, Republicans hold a five-seat edge, but this election could conceivably deliver an even smaller controlling margin to either party. If so, then the races that are forced into political overtime — and in House races there are usually several — will have a direct effect upon which party controls the chamber.

In this case, mid-December could well be the deciding timeline. California and New York, where both states have several competitive races, also have the longest certification periods. In this election year, New York and California election certification deadlines are Dec. 12 and 13, respectively.

Other states where we could see House political overtime are Maine and Alaska, which have certification deadlines of Nov. 25 and 26, while a number of states that feature competitive House races will certify on Dec. 2: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Montana, Nebraska, and Virginia.

Even later are Connecticut and Washington (both on Dec. 5), and Oregon on Dec. 12.

While the political world will be in great anticipation of election day, Nov. 5, particularly for determining the House majority, that date may be only the start of what promises to be a laborious and contentious post-election period. At this writing, it appears almost certain that political overtime will be necessary to determine which party will ultimately control a small House majority.

Polling Series – Still Anybody’s Game; However, Nevada, Pennsylvania & Wisconsin are Most Critical

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024

Swing States

British pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies released the results of their latest US presidential battleground state polling series for the United Kingdom’s Telegraph publication. The results clearly indicate that the race, with just under a month until election day, is still very much up for grabs.

The series covered nine states, including the domains virtually everyone considers as battlegrounds: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The pollsters then added two more that are likely to break for one party or the other with relatively substantial margins: Florida is going to vote for Republican former President Donald Trump, while Minnesota will remain safely in the Democratic column for Vice President Kamala Harris.

The polls were conducted during the Sept. 27-Oct. 2 period, and the sample sizes ranged from a low of 514 respondents in Nevada to a high of 5,686 who participated in Pennsylvania. In the nine states, a total of 18,875 individuals responded to the online poll questions.

Counting Florida and Minnesota in the respective Republican and Democratic columns, the seven battlegrounds all fell into a range of four points, from +2 to -2. Trump led in North Carolina (+2) and Arizona (+1). Harris held the slightest of edges in four states: Michigan (+2), Nevada (+1), Pennsylvania (+1), and Wisconsin (+1). The pair drew dead even in Georgia.

The bottom line is that all of the battlegrounds, according to this data and most other, are in toss-up status and each of the deciding states could still fall to either candidate.

Looking ahead, the most important domain on the current board appears to be North Carolina. The Tar Heel State is a must win for Trump. If Harris wins this state, she will likely claim the national election.

Conversely, if Trump were to hold North Carolina, win Georgia and Pennsylvania, all of which is highly possible, he would clinch the election. Keeping North Carolina in his category and taking both Georgia and Pennsylvania, and assuming the other 24 states and the 2nd District of Maine that all voted for him twice remain in his camp for the 2024 election, means Trump would convert the 35 electoral votes he needs to clinch the presidency.

Should Harris break through in either North Carolina or Georgia, she would be virtually assured of national victory.

Previously, we reported on a Trump under-poll pattern in Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. There we saw either a significant understatement of Trump’s support in the Silver, Keystone, and Badger States, or a surge for him in the final month of the campaign.

In any event, his actual performance in each of these states in 2020 was better than what was indicated in July through October polling by a margin of 2.8 percentage points in Pennsylvania, and 3.7 points in Nevada. Trump outperformed his Wisconsin polling by an even larger 5.93 percent clip.

There is no guarantee that the same 2020 pattern in these states will again occur, but if it does, the three states would cumulatively deliver the 35 electoral votes (NV 6; PA 19; WI 10) that Trump needs to reclaim the White House. Therefore, the Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin path is one of the few Trump winning scenarios that would yield a national victory without including the state of Georgia.

Basically, the Redfield and Wilton research again shows that both candidates have a virtually equal chance of winning the November election and will do so with a combination of several of these critical swing domains discussed above.

Senate Recap – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024

Senate

In a three-part series, we examine the latest in the 21 US Senate races that are either competitive or where a new senator will succeed an incumbent not seeking re-election. In alphabetical order, we begin today with Arizona and move through Michigan. Tomorrow, we look at Minnesota through New Mexico, and on Friday, end with the competitive races from Ohio to Wisconsin.

Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D)

Arizona — Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) is retiring after one term, and it appears that Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) will be her successor in January. Rep. Gallego has successfully created a more moderate image than his record in the House might depict. His campaign is emphasizing his military record and addresses the border issue, which has greater effect in Arizona than most states.

Republicans, nominating former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, have also yielded the inside track to Rep. Gallego. Lake’s continued accusations that voter fraud cost her the 2022 election has soured most swing voters. Rep. Gallego leads in all polls, and with an average position of 7-plus points in nine September polls and two tracks. Expect Rep. Gallego to officially claim the seat in November.

California — While former baseball great Steve Garvey (R) performed well in California’s crowded jungle primary election back in June, and even placed first in the special election to permanently replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), he is no match for Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) in a two-way match.

Schiff’s advertising about Garvey being too conservative during the primary helped elevate the Garvey candidacy with Republicans, thus the congressman got the general election opponent he desired. A GOP candidate has virtually no chance today in a California statewide race. Schiff will win in a landslide.

Delaware — Sen. Tom Carper (D) is retiring and leaves the seat to at-large Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington). This open race is nothing more than an easy re-election bid for the congresswoman who already represents the entire state.

Florida — Sen. Rick Scott (R) is on the ballot for a second term, after winning his initial federal election by just over 10,000 votes from more than eight million ballots cast. In that election, Scott, then the state’s governor, unseated veteran Sen. Bill Nelson (D). This time, Sen. Scott faces former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), who held a south Florida seat for one term before current Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Miami) unseated her in 2020.

While polling again shows a close race – Sen. Scott leads by just over three percentage points in seven September polls and two tracks – the Florida electorate’s political composition has drastically changed from six years ago.

In 2018, when Sen. Scott was first elected, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by over 257,000 registrants. Today, Republicans hold a 956,000-plus advantage over Democrats, meaning the state has changed in the GOP’s favor by more than 1.2 million individuals. This is the main reason that pollsters underestimated the 2022 Florida statewide Republican strength by an average of seven points.

Expect Sen. Scott to win by a bigger margin than the polling currently indicates.

Indiana — With first-term Sen. Mike Braun (R) eschewing a second term to launch what appears to be a successful run for governor, Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) finds himself with one of the easiest open Senate runs in decades. Banks was unopposed in the Republican primary and is pitted against a weak Democratic contender in the general election. Rep. Banks will easily win the Senate seat in November and protect the open seat for the GOP.

Maryland — Sen. Ben Cardin (D) is retiring after a remarkable 58 years in elective office, counting his time in the state legislature, the US House, and of course the Senate. In his wake we have seen two rather astonishing campaigns, the first in the Democratic primary where US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) spent $62 million of his own money only to lose to Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks by just over 10 percentage points in the May election.

The second surprise is the closeness of the general election in what has performed as one of the Democratic Party’s strongest states. Former two-term Gov. Larry Hogan (R), still a popular figure in Maryland, is clearly the best candidate the Republicans could field, and he is making the race close.

Whether he can overtake Alsobrooks now that Vice President Kamala Harris is the party nominee and has activated the base voter to a greater degree than President Joe Biden, is very much in doubt. It seems what is a potential 30-point Harris victory in Maryland might be too high an obstacle for even Gov. Hogan to scale.

While this is an expensive race and one that is clearly in play, Alsobrooks must remain as at least a nominal favorite to succeed Sen. Cardin.

Michigan — Four-term incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D) was the first 2024 in-cycle senator to announce that she would not seek re-election. She yields to what has become a highly competitive race between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R).

While Michigan trends Democratic, the polling has been quite close both in this race and for the presidential campaign. Unlike most of the other states where former President Donald Trump is running either ahead or in a dead heat with Harris, the Michigan Republican Senate candidate has not lagged. In the other Senate states, and particularly those with an incumbent Democrat seeking re-election, the GOP contender is running well behind Trump’s standing.

In the Wolverine State, we see 14 polls and two tracks being conducted during the month of September. Slotkin leads in all but one, with an average percentage point edge of just over five even though she has an almost 5:1 edge in campaign resources. Outside spending has been heavy, but here Republicans have more than a three million dollar edge among the $45-plus million already expended.

While Rep. Slotkin has a small but clear advantage in this statewide campaign, a stronger than expected performance from Trump at the top of the GOP ticket could give Rogers the extra push he needs to score the upset victory.

Post-Trump/Harris Debate Polling; New Ads Debut; Alabama Governor’s Race News; Pollster Accuracy Rankings Released

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 13, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Donald Trump: Fabrizio Releases Post-Debate Polling Memo — Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio conducted a post-debate flash poll (Sept. 11; 1,893 likely voters from seven swing states; online) and compared the results to their previous poll conducted “last week,” before the debate (5,600 likely voters from seven swing states; online), and claim tha actually gained support after the forum.

Post-debate, the ballot tests from the seven swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) found Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris, 48-46 percent when minor party candidates were included and 50-47 percent from a head-to-head Trump vs. Harris question. The pre-debate data found the two tied at 46 percent apiece in the multi-candidate configuration and 48-48 percent from the head-to-head question.

Though these numbers certainly cut against the grain of stated post-debate perceptions, the full effect will be felt next week when we see the next round of publicly released polling.

House

Congressional Leadership Fund: Launches Series of Ads — The Congressional Leadership Fund, an outside Super PAC with ties to the House Republican leadership, unleashed a series of well researched and targeted ads in nine competitive congressional districts. Each ad is customized for the individual target and not what are commonly called “cookie cutter” messages where the target and verbiage are interchangeable. Democratic organizations use the latter technique to attack Republicans on the abortion issue.

The Democratic targets are: Kirsten Engel (AZ-6 against Rep. Juan Ciscomani), Rudy Salas (CA-22; Rep. David Valadao), Rep. Yadira Caraveo (CO-8; GOP candidate Gabe Evans), former Rep. Mondaire Jones (NY-17; Rep. Mike Lawler), Rep. Pat Ryan (NY-18; GOP candidate Alison Esposito), Josh Riley (NY-19; Rep. Marc Molinaro), Rep. Marcy Kaptur (OH-9; GOP candidate Derek Merrin), Janelle Bynum (OR-5; Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer), and Rep. Matt Cartwright (PA-8; GOP candidate Rob Bresnahan).

Governor

Alabama: A Potential Tuberville Gubernatorial Candidacy? — Speculation abounds that first-term Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) may eschew running for re-election in 2026 and instead attempt to succeed GOP Gov. Kay Ivey who will be ineligible to seek a third term.

In response to a question about this possibility, Sen. Tuberville was non-committal but said that he is “tired of getting kicked in the teeth being in the [US Senate] minority.” His view of the Senate may change if the Republicans capture the majority in November, however.

Should Sen. Tuberville decide to enter the open race for governor, he would only have to clear what is expected to be a crowded GOP primary in strongly Republican Alabama. With his strong conservative record, his chances of winning the Republican nomination appear highly favorable.

Another possible scenario, should the senator decide to run for governor, is seeing a primary that isn’t as hotly contested since many of the credible contenders would then opt to run for Tuberville’s open Senate seat.

Polling

FiveThirtyEight: Releases New Pollster Rankings — The FiveThirtyEight data organization released their latest rankings of the nation’s political pollsters, and again paid compliments to the most accurate of the survey research firms.

The number one pollster is the New York Times/Siena College. ABC News/Washington Post was rated second, and Marquette University Law School third. The international online pollster YouGov occupies the fourth slot, which is just ahead of Monmouth University, which rounds out the top five. The first four received perfect 3.0 scores on the 538 scale, while Monmouth was close behind at 2.9.