Senate Re-Set

By Jim Ellis

July 8, 2016 — Returning from this week’s 4th of July break and preparing for the late season primaries, now is a good time to review the 2016 Senate picture:

Nominees

Alabama: Safe R
Sen. Richard Shelby (R) vs. Ron Crumpton (D) – non-competitive

Arkansas: Likely R
Sen. John Boozman (R) vs. Connor Eldridge (D) – moderately competitive

California: Open Seat (Sen. Barbara Boxer-D; retiring) Safe D
AG Kamala Harris (D) vs. Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) – competitive

Colorado: Likely D
Sen. Michael Bennet (D) vs. Comm. Darryl Glenn (R) – potentially competitive

Georgia: Safe R
Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) vs. Jim Barksdale (D) – non-competitive

Idaho: Safe R
Sen. Mike Crapo (R) vs. Jerry Sturgill (D) – non-competitive

Illinois: Lean D
Sen. Mark Kirk (R) vs. Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D) – highly competitive

Indiana: Open Seat (Sen. Dan Coats-R; retiring) Likely R
Rep. Todd Young (R) vs. Baron Hill (D) – moderately competitive

Iowa: Likely R
Sen. Charles Grassley (R) vs. Patty Judge (D) – competitive

Kentucky: Likely R
Sen. Rand Paul (R) vs. Mayor Jim Gray (D) – competitive

Maryland: Open Seat (Sen. Barbara Mikulski-D; retiring) Safe D
Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D) vs. St. Del. Kathy Szeliga (R) – non-competitive

Nevada: Open Seat (Sen. Harry Reid-D; retiring) Toss-Up
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) vs. Rep. Joe Heck (R) – highly competitive

New York: Safe D
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) vs. Wendy Long (R/C) – non-competitive

North Carolina: Lean R
Sen. Richard Burr (R) vs. Deborah Ross (D) – competitive

North Dakota: Safe R
Sen. John Hoeven (R) vs. St. Rep. Eliot Glassheim (D) – non-competitive

Ohio: Lean R
Sen. Rob Portman (R) vs. Ex-Gov. Ted Strickland (D) – highly competitive

Oklahoma: Safe R
Sen. James Lankford (R) vs. Mike Workman (D) – non-competitive

Oregon: Safe D
Sen. Ron Wyden (D) vs. Mark Callahan (R) – non-competitive

Pennsylvania: Lean R
Sen. Pat Toomey (R) vs. Katie McGinty (D) – highly competitive

South Carolina: Safe R
Sen. Tim Scott (R) vs. Thomas Dixon (D) – non-competitive

South Dakota: Safe R
Sen. John Thune (R) vs. Jay Williams (D) – non-competitive

Utah: Safe R
Sen. Mike Lee (R) vs. Misty Snow (D) – non-competitive

Upcoming Primaries

Alaska: Primary: Aug. 16
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) vs. 3 minor Republicans
3 minor Democrats

Arizona: Primary: Aug. 30
Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Ex-state Sen. Kelli Ward (R)/2 others
Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) unopposed for party nomination

Connecticut: Primary: Aug. 9
Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D) unopposed for party nomination
2 minor Republicans

Florida: Primary: Aug. 30
Sen. Marco Rubio vs. businessman Carlos Beruff (R) and 2 others
Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) vs. Rep. Alan Grayson (D) and 3 others

Hawaii: Primary: Aug. 13
Sen. Brian Schatz (D) vs. 4 minor Democrats
4 minor Republicans

Kansas: Primary: Aug. 2
Sen. Jerry Moran (R) vs. ex-local official D.J. Smith (R)
2 minor Democrats

Louisiana: Open Seat (Sen. David Vitter-R; retiring)
Candidate Filing Deadline: July 22
Jungle Primary: Nov. 8
State Treasurer John Kennedy (R)
Rep. Charles Boustany (R)
Rep. John Fleming (R)
Ex-Rep. Joe Cao (R)
Ex-Senate candidate Rob Maness (R)
Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta (R)
2 minor Republicans
Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell (D)
Ex-Lt. Gov. candidate Caroline Fayard (D)
3 minor Democrats
Ex-state Sen. Troy Hebert (I)

Missouri: Primary: Aug. 2
Sen. Roy Blunt (R) vs. 3 minor Republicans
Secretary of State Jason Kander (D) vs. 3 minor Democrats

New Hampshire: Primary: Sept. 13
Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) vs. ex-state Sen. Jim Rubens (R)/3 others
Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) unopposed for party nomination

Vermont: Primary: Aug. 9
Sen. Patrick Leahy (D) vs. frequent candidate Cris Ericson (D)
Scott Milne (R), businessman, unopposed for party nomination

Washington: Primary: Aug. 2
Sen. Patty Murray (D) vs. 3 minor Democrats
Former State Republican chair Chris Vance vs. 3 minor Republicans

Wisconsin: Primary: Aug. 9
Sen. Ron Johnson (R) unopposed for party nomination
Ex-Sen. Russ Feingold (D) vs. Scott Harbach (D), businessman

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