House Overview – Part III

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 25, 2025

House

Part III of our four-part House Overview analysis covers districts in Minnesota through New York. If a state is not listed, it means there are no major developments currently affecting the sitting incumbents.

Minnesota

MN-2 — Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is still reportedly contemplating entering the open Senate race but has yet to take any definitive action. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) continues to build party support, so if Rep. Craig is going to mount a challenge, she will have to make the decision in relatively short order. The Congresswoman raised over $1.2 million in the first quarter and has just over $1 million cash-on-hand. All that money would be transferable to a Senate race. Should she remain in the House, her re-election prospects would be strong in a moderately competitive 2nd District.

Nebraska

NE-2 — Five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) holds a Nebraska district that is one of the most politically marginal in the country. Over his tenure, the Congressman has averaged 50.6 percent of the vote in five competitive campaigns with a high of 51.3 and a low of 48.9 percent. In the last two electoral contests, Rep. Bacon defeated then-state Sen. Tony Vargas (D-Omaha) with 50.9 and 51.3 victory percentages. Twice, including the 2024 election, Rep. Bacon has held the seat even when the Democratic presidential candidate (Joe Biden 2020; Kamala Harris 2024) carried the district.

Democrats have NE-2 high on their target list but are looking for another candidate since Vargas has twice failed. Ophthalmologist Mark Johnson (D) has announced, but it is unclear if the party leadership will fully back his candidacy. Independent Dan Osborn, who ran well in the 2024 Senate race before losing to incumbent Deb Fischer (R), is reportedly looking at a Bacon challenge, but the Democratic leadership has made it clear they want to field their own candidate for this race. Therefore, Osborn is unlikely to challenge Rep. Bacon. The NE-2 campaign will be a key factor in determining which party controls the House in the next Congress.

Nevada

NV-3 — Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) will again face credible Republican competition when she seeks a fifth term next year. In 2024, the Congresswoman defeated first-time GOP candidate Drew Johnson 51-49 percent, in a district with a 51.7D – 43.7R partisan lean according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. The seat has run closer in House campaigns than this rating suggests, however. In her four victorious congressional races, Rep. Lee has averaged only 51.0 percent of the vote.

Already three Republican candidates, including 2024 contender Marty O’Donnell, have entered next year’s 3rd District campaign, while Johnson confirms that he is considering making a comeback attempt. This Las Vegas-anchored seat will once again be a major GOP target in the ensuing election.

NV-4 — Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas) was originally elected in 2012 but was defeated in 2014 before regaining the seat four years later. Rep. Horsford will be favored for a sixth non-consecutive term next year, but he again may have already drawn significant Republican opposition. Three GOP businessmen have declared their candidacies, but it remains to be seen if any can mount a serious campaign.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 52.6D – 42.1R partisan lean, which appears accurate based upon the latest voting trends. In November, Horsford defeated former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee (R), 53-45 percent.

New Hampshire

NH-1 — Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has already announced his intention to run for the open Senate seat now that incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D) has made public her intention to retire. The 1st District electorate, which defeated more incumbents than any district in the country from 2004 until Pappas secured the seat after his initial election in 2018, can certainly be characterized as one of the most politically marginal in the country. NH-1 will be a major target for both parties.

The candidate field will take some time to gel, but both parties can count on witnessing crowded primaries. The question looming over all potential candidates, however, is how will the election schedule change? Legislation is pending to move the state’s late September primary to either June, as Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) supports, or August. The 2026 calendar will be decided before the legislature adjourns at the end of June.

New Jersey

Democratic Delegation — The current 2025 open Governor’s race could have a major effect on New Jersey’s Democratic congressional delegation since two of its nine members are in the statewide race. If either Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), who is staked to a tenuous lead in most polls, or Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) wins the office, the victor’s current congressional seat will then go to special election upon the incumbent’s resignation.

The party primary is scheduled for June 10, so we will know much more after that election. The Democratic nominee will at least be a slight favorite in the general election presumably against 2021 GOP gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli.

NJ-7 — Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) was re-elected in November from his politically marginal north-central New Jersey congressional district with a 52-46 percent victory margin. Already, seven Democrats have announced their candidacies, which features several businessmen, local officials, and activists. The eventual Democratic nominee will have to spend heavily in order to secure the party nomination in June of 2026. Rep. Kean will certainly have another tough fight on his hands, and NJ-7 will again host a national congressional race that could be a bellwether in deciding the next House majority.

NJ-9 — Veteran state legislator Nellie Pou (D-Borough of North Haledon) succeeded the late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) who passed away during the campaign season. Her victory was not a surprise, but her small 51-46 percent victory over sales consultant Billy Prempeh was much closer than expected. Prempeh spent less than $50,000 on his campaign and attracted no national support. The GOP nominee is running again, and it remains to be seen if the National Republican Congressional Committee will target this budding re-match.

New York

NY-4 — It appeared that we would see the third iteration of the Laura Gillen (D) vs. Anthony D’Esposito (R) campaign, but the latter man accepting a federal appointment from President Donald Trump means the Republicans must now find a new candidate. In 2022, D’Esposito scored the surprise election win of the night in defeating Gillen, then a town supervisor. She returned in 2024 to unseat D’Esposito who immediately announced he would seek a re-match.

The 4th District favors the Democrats (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 53.4D – 45.8R), but the last few elections have proven the seat can be highly competitive. Long Island’s 4th CD will appear on the GOP target list, but the race will be defined once Republicans recruit a viable candidate.

NY-15 — The Bronx anchored 15th CD is not competitive in the general election (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 86.4D – 12.9R), but it may host a hotly contested Democratic primary if incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) decides to launch a challenge to Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in her bid for renomination. State Assemblywoman Amanda Septimo (D-South Bronx) has announced her congressional candidacy in anticipation of Torres running statewide. This primary contest will become defined once the Congressman makes a final determination about entering the Governor’s race.

NY-17 — GOP Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) has twice won this Democratic district, but he may not be on the ballot for a third term. Lawler is exploring a run for Governor, but it remains unclear whether he will enter the statewide contest or seek re-election. If the latter, a pool of five well-heeled Democrats await him. The Democratic primary will be a fight with the winner crowned in late June of next year. Rep. Lawler is clearly a formidable campaigner, so if he decides to run for re-election we can expect another strong effort. Should this become an open seat, Democrats will have the inside track toward returning NY-17 to their column.

NY-21 — Since a special election was supposed to occur in this district because incumbent Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) was originally nominated for the position of US Ambassador to the United Nations but then withdrawn, Democrats find themselves with a very well-funded candidate for next year’s campaign.

Though the North Country’s NY-21 is a Republican seat (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 58.5R – 40.2D), Democratic dairy farmer Blake Gendebien, who the local Democratic Party county chairmen chose as their nominee for what they thought was an impending special election, has already raised just over $3 million with a touch north of $2 million remaining in his campaign account.

Therefore, the NY-21 general election has the potential of becoming competitive but mainly if Rep. Stefanik does not seek re-election. The Congresswoman is said to be considering a run for Governor and could certainly receive another appointment from President Trump, since Republicans figure that holding her seat in a regular general election is easier than for a stand-alone special.

Sen. Dick Durbin to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 24, 2025

Senate

Our House Overview series has been postponed a day to cover Sen. Dick Durbin’s (D-IL) retirement announcement. We’ll pick it up again with Part III tomorrow and Part IV on Monday.

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) / Photo: Center for American Progress Action Fund

In what had been expected for some weeks, and particularly since the 1st Quarter Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports revealed that Sen. Durbin had campaign receipts totaling only $42,000 since the beginning of the year, the veteran Illinois lawmaker released a statement yesterday indicating that he will not seek re-election to a sixth Senate term next year.

When the 119th Congress concludes, Durbin will have completed 44 years of combined elected office service including his time in the Senate and House. He will be 82 years old at the time of the next election and would be 88 if he were to run and serve an entire new term.

Sen. Durbin’s decision means there will be at least five seats open in the next election. Previously, Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI), Tina Smith (D-MN), Mitch McConnell (R-KY), and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), had all announced their retirement intentions.

The Illinois Senate race, due to the state’s strongly Democratic voting history in recent decades, will largely be decided in an open Democratic primary scheduled for next March 17.

Those believed to be interested in running for the seat are Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D), a trio of US Representatives, Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg), and Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville), and potentially state Comptroller Susana Mendoza and Secretary of State and former US Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias. Several weeks ago, Attorney General Kwame Raoul (D) made a public statement saying he would not run for the Senate even if Sen. Durbin decided to retire.

Stratton was elected on a ticket with Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D), so she has not run statewide in her own right. Of all the potential candidates, Rep. Krishnamoorthi has proven himself a fundraising machine. He raised $2.86 million in the 1st quarter of 2025 and has a whopping $19.4 million in his campaign account. In contrast, Rep. Kelly has $2 million while Underwood reports $1.1 million in her campaign treasury.

No major Republican has announced for the Senate seat, and it is unlikely one will considering that the eventual party nominee will be the longest of shots to win the general election. Therefore, a GOP congressional delegation member, either Reps. Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro), Mary Miller (R-Oakland), or Darin LaHood (R-Peoria), will not risk a safe House seat for a statewide bid where the eventual Republican nominee would fail to attract any more than 45 percent of the vote.

Durbin was first elected to the Senate in 1996 and became the Democratic Whip shortly after the 2004 election. He recorded a career statewide mean average election percentage of 58.2 percent, with a high of 67.8 percent in 2008, the year Illinois Sen. Barack Obama was elected President, and a low of 53.5 percent during the Republican landslide election of 2014.

Durbin also served seven terms in the House from, at the time, one of the state’s southern Illinois districts that was anchored in his home city of Springfield and Carbondale. To put in perspective the Illinois loss of representation over the succeeding census periods, when Durbin was first elected to the House in 1982, his state had 22 US House districts. Today, it maintains just 17 seats.

The 2024 election cycle will now feature the first open Illinois Senate election in 20 years, and a very crowded and competitive Democratic primary is expected with all candidates vying to succeed Sen. Durbin. Considering the state’s early primary schedule, expect the political jockeying to begin in earnest very shortly.

House Overview – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 23, 2025

House

Today, we continue our House Overview analysis, this time of districts in Florida through Michigan. If a state is not listed, it means there are no major developments currently affecting the sitting incumbents.

Florida

FL-6 — New Congressman Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) won his seat in the April 1 special election with 56.7 percent of the vote. Fine, who was badly outspent in the irregular election campaign, still won comfortably even though polling suggested a much closer outcome.

Despite national Republican concern that Fine might be upset, he actually outperformed his predecessor’s initial 6th District election, current National Security Advisor Mike Waltz (R). In 2018, Waltz recorded a result that was half a percentage point lower than that of Fine.

Seeing the end result, Rep. Fine should have little problem securing a full term next year in a 6th District that carries a partisan lean of 60.8R – 37.4D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians.

Georgia

GOP Delegation — The House Republican picture is figuratively suspended until Gov. Brian Kemp (R) decides whether he will run for the Senate. If Gov. Kemp passes on a Senate run, then it is likely that all or some of the following Republican House members could declare a Senate candidacy: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). These members all moving toward a statewide campaign could force the Georgia GOP to defend as many as four open seats in 2026.

GA-13 — Due to health reasons, veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) is a retirement prospect, even though the Congressman indicates he will seek re-election. If so, Scott will face major Democratic primary competition. At this point, state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair (D) are both announced candidates.

Georgia is a runoff state, and with several high level contenders competing, forcing a July runoff from the scheduled May primary is a distinct possibility. Against much weaker Democratic opposition in 2020, Rep. Scott only managed to obtain 52.9 percent of the partisan vote.

Iowa

IA-1 — Congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) was re-elected in November with only a 799-vote margin making this the third closest House campaign in the country. So far, the challenger who held Rep. Miller-Meeks to her close victory, former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D), has not yet stated whether she will return for a re-match.

One person who has announced, however, is 2024 GOP congressional candidate David Pautsch. Holding the Congresswoman to a 56 percent Republican primary win without spending any money on his campaign certainly signaled weakness for Miller-Meeks. Pautsch is running again this year and promises to put forth a stronger campaign effort. In the first quarter, however, he only raised $4,000.

The tight partisan nature of the 1st District again will yield another close congressional race in 2026 irrespective of who ultimately runs. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean finds a 50.0R – 46.7D split.

IA-2 — Three-term Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) has won a trio of strong victories against credible Democratic opponents in a politically marginal CD. Hinson has already drawn another competitive challenger for 2026. Former US Attorney Kevin Techau (D) announced his candidacy just last week.

The Congresswoman has averaged 54.1 percent of the vote in her three campaigns including defeating then incumbent Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) in 2020. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation for the 2nd District is 51.4R – 45.3D.

Kentucky

KY-6 — Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) running for the state’s open Senate seat means we will see a hotly contested open Republican primary followed by what could be a competitive general election. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean for the KY-6 CD is 51.8R – 46.1D suggesting a tight general election assuming the Democrats field a strong candidate. Individuals from both parties will soon be announcing their candidacies.

Louisiana

LA-6 — Louisiana Rep. Cleo Fields (D-Baton Rouge) first won his congressional seat in 1992 and was re-elected two years later. Before the 1996 election, however, his district was declared unconstitutional, and he did not seek re-election. In 2023, a new redistricting map awarded Fields another chance to run for Congress and he successfully returned to the House after an absence of 28 years. Rep. Fields spent much of his time between congressional terms as a member of the Louisiana state Senate.

Now, however, redistricting again may send him to the political bench. Since his current seat is virtually identical to the one declared illegal almost three decades ago, the US Supreme Court will make a final decision. The high court heard oral arguments on the Louisiana redistricting case in March and will rule before the end of June. Their decision will have a major effect upon the 2026 Louisiana congressional contests.

Maine

ME-2 — Though President Trump has carried Maine’s 2nd Congressional District in all three of his national elections, Democratic Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) still managed to win in both 2020 and 2024 despite the partisan tide against him at the top of the ticket. In 2024, Rep. Golden’s victory margin over retired NASCAR driver and then-state Rep. Austin Theriault (R) dropped to seven-tenths of a percentage point, his smallest edge since originally winning through Ranked Choice Voting in 2018.

Rumors abound that Rep. Golden will run for Governor, but the Congressman has so far been noncommittal. He has not ruled out a gubernatorial bid to replace retiring Governor Janet Mills – appointed Secretary of State Shenna Bellows is the only announced Democratic candidate to date – nor re-election or even retiring from elective politics. Golden has indicated, however, that he would not challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), of whose staff he was once a member.

Theriault says he will seek a re-match next year. Former Gov. Paul LePage (R) has also expressed interest in running. Regardless of who becomes the general election nominees, this race will be competitive in 2026.

Michigan

MI-4 — Michigan’s southwestern congressional district is not as safe for Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) as his pre-redistricting 2nd CD, but the new 4th is still comfortably Republican. Huizenga defeated attorney Jessica Swartz (D) 55-43 percent in November. She will return for a re-match next year, but the Democrats are looking for a stronger candidate. Cybersecurity professional Richard Aaron (D) is also an announced contender. Additionally, Rep. Huizenga is reportedly considering a Senate bid. The seat could become highly competitive if open.

MI-8 — Freshman Michigan US Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) defeated frequent congressional candidate Paul Junge (R), 51-45 percent, in an expensive open seat campaign. She was mentioned as a potential 2026 Senate candidate but recently announced that she will seek re-election next year.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 51.0D – 46.2R partisan lean for the district that includes the cities of Flint, Midland, Bay City, and Saginaw. Rep. Rivet will be favored for re-election, but the Republicans will likely field a stronger candidate in 2026 than the thrice-failed MJunge.

MI-10 — Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) is running for Governor, so the politically marginal 10th District will be open in the 2026 election. Already, three Democrats have announced: 2024 Macomb County DA candidate Christina Hines, Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, and ex-congressional aide Alex Hawkins. Retired judge Carl Marlinga, who held Rep. James to two close victories, will not return in 2026. He has publicly endorsed Hines. Surprisingly, no Republican candidate has yet come forward.

The 2026 election cycle will again host a highly competitive campaign in this Detroit suburban CD, and this will be one of the top Democratic conversion opportunities in the country. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians find a 49.5D – 47.9R partisan lean suggesting an open seat race will deliver another close finish.

MI-11 — Incumbent Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) will reportedly soon announce her Senate candidacy, thus also leaving this seat open for 2026. Because Michigan lost a congressional seat in 2020 reapportionment, she and fellow Democrat Andy Levin were paired in one district.

Rep. Stevens convincingly won the 2022 party primary, and the succeeding general election in what is now a safely Democratic district. She was re-elected in November with 58 percent of the vote. In an open seat configuration, we can expect a very competitive Democratic primary. Levin is viewed as a possible contender. The former Congressman has not ruled out a comeback bid.

MI-13 — Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) has won two tough Democratic primaries, which is tantamount to election in the Detroit anchored CD-13. In 2024, Rep. Thanedar defeated Detroit City Council at-large member and former state Rep. Mary Waters in the Democratic primary. In 2022, Thanedar, then a state Representative, defeated then-state Sen. Adam Hollier 28-23 percent. Hollier attempted to run again in 2024 but failed to qualify for the ballot due to submitting insufficient petition signatures. Hollier has already announced he will run again in 2026.

This district will again host a competitive Democratic primary, but Rep. Thanedar’s incumbency and substantial personal wealth gives him the inside track toward winning renomination and re-election.

House Overview – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 22, 2025

House

Already we have seen developments occur in key 2026 House election cycle campaigns. Over the next four days, we will recap the action. Today, we look at districts in Alaska through Colorado; tomorrow, Florida to Minnesota. If a state is not listed, it means there are no major developments currently affecting the sitting incumbents.

At this point, it appears there are 49 races in the competitive category. Republicans currently hold 26 of the seats and Democrats 23. Therefore, we can expect another tight election cycle.

Alaska

AK-AL — While polling again suggests another dead heat race for at-large freshman Rep. Nick Begich, III (R-Chugiak) if former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) were to return for a re-match, it appears such a contest will not materialize. It is highly likely that Peltola will enter the state’s open Governor’s race.

Arizona

AZ-1 — In November, Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) defeated state Rep. Amish Shah (D) 52-48 percent. Already, Dr. Shah, former news anchor and 2024 congressional candidate Marlene Galen-Woods (D), and businessman Jonathan Treble (D) have announced their candidacies. A competitive Democratic primary and general election is on the horizon for this Maricopa County congressional seat.

AZ-6 — Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) again defeated former state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D) and did so with a 50-47 percent margin. Engel stated that she will not return for a third congressional race. Retired Marine Corps Sergeant JoAnna Mendoza (D) has already raised over $800,000 for her announced campaign. She reports over $726,000 cash-on-hand, while Rep. Ciscomani posts over $1.2 million in his campaign account. This will again be a highly competitive national congressional campaign.

AZ-7 — The special general election to replace the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) is scheduled for Sept. 23. The determinative battle, however, will be the July 15 Democratic primary. Though five candidates have filed for the party primary, the race is realistically between Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, the late Congressman’s daughter, and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. This district will not be competitive in the 2026 regular election.

California

CA-3 — Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento) was re-elected to a second term with 55 percent of the vote in November. He has drawn a significant Democratic opponent for 2026. Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall (D) announced that she will enter the ’26 campaign. Her constituency represents approximately 15 percent of the district population.

CA-9 — Rep. Josh Harder (D-Tracy) defeated Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R) by a slight 52-48 percent margin in 2024. Lincoln says he is considering returning for a re-match but has not yet announced his 2026 candidacy. Rep. Harder already reports over $2.2 million in his campaign war chest.

CA-13 — This district hosted the closest House race in the entire country last year, as now-Rep. Adam Gray (D-Merced) defeated then-Rep. John Duarte (R) by just 187 votes. Republicans appear to have their act together for 2026. They have recruited Ceres Mayor Javier Lopez (R) into the developing contest. Duarte has already announced that he will not return for a re-match and endorsed Lopez. Rep. Gray had a weak 1st Quarter from a fundraising perspective. He posts only $344,000 in his campaign account.

CA-22 — Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford/Fresno) represents the most Democratic seat in the nation to elect a Republican to the House. In November, he again defeated former Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D), this time, 53-47 percent. Salas may return for a third run but has not yet announced his intentions. Visalia School Board Trustee Randy Villegas (D) is a declared candidate and says he will remain in the race irrespective of what Salas decides. In 2026, this will again be a top national congressional campaign.

CA-41 — The Inland Empire will again feature a competitive race for 17-term Congressman Ken Calvert (R-Corona), but he will have a different general election opponent. Democratic former federal prosecutor Will Rollins, who ran two close races against the veteran Congressman, has already announced that he will not return for a third run. Democrats have recruited Grammy Award winning musician Tim Myers in his place.

CA-45 — Freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange) defeated then-Rep. Michelle Steel (R) by just 683 votes, making it the second-closest congressional race in the country. Steel immediately filed a 2026 FEC committee upon her defeat but only raised a little over $74,000 in the 1st Quarter. She has over $942,000 in her campaign account, however. Therefore, we are likely to see another highly competitive Tran-Steel contest here in 2026. For his part, Rep. Tran posted just over $547,000 in his campaign committee.

CA-49 — Four-term Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) defeated Republican Matt Gunderson 52-48 percent in November but is likely to face a stronger opponent in 2026. San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) is an announced candidate and only one of two Republican US House challengers nationwide to raise over $400,000 in the 1st Quarter. Though the Orange County candidates have dominated this district in recent elections, San Diego County holds two-thirds of the CD’s residents. Therefore, this should be a race to watch in 2026.

Colorado

CO-8 — The politically marginal 8th District of Colorado that lies north and east of Denver will perennially be on the competitive House race list. In 2022, Democrat Yadira Caraveo won the seat with 48 percent of the vote. In 2024, Republican state Rep. Gabe Evans unseated her with 49 percent. Another tough race is in store for what will always be a vulnerable incumbent.

Caraveo has announced she will return for a rematch but must first get past state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) to secure the party nomination. Rutinel posted impressive fundraising numbers in the 1st Quarter, attracting more than $1.2 million in support. Therefore, we can expect to see a hot Democratic primary and general election here in 2026.

Q1 Money

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 21, 2025

The first quarter 2025 campaign financial disclosure reports are now public, and the totals reveal interesting individual candidate information.

The Down Ballot political blog statisticians compiled the figures from the Federal Election Commission filings and released the data report for all Senate and House early contenders.

Senate

A total of 41 Senate reports were filed at the April 15 deadline, 31 of which are from incumbent members currently seeking re-election. The four Senators who have announced they will not run for re-election, Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Gary Peters (D-MI), Tina Smith (D-MN), and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), are not listed in the report.

The top Senate fundraiser for the 1st Quarter is Georgia’s Jon Ossoff (D), who will face a tough re-election campaign. He raised $11.1 million and holds $11.08 million in his campaign account. It is possible that Gov. Brian Kemp (R), ineligible to run for a third term, may challenge Sen. Ossoff.

If the Governor declines a Senate bid, Ossoff will likely face one of his colleagues from the House, either Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), or Mike Collins (R-Jackson). Each has said they would have interest in running for the Senate should Gov. Kemp decide not to enter the race.

In addition to Ossoff, the Senators raising the most money in the first quarter were Sens. Mark Warner (D-VA) with $2.83 million, Thom Tillis (R-NC) $2.24 million, Cory Booker (D-NJ) $1.56 million, and John Cornyn (R-TX) $1.54 million.

Sen. Warner is preparing for a possible challenge from Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) and Sen. Tillis may face an electoral battle with former Gov. Roy Cooper (D), while Sen. Cornyn is facing a Republican primary challenge with Attorney General Ken Paxton and possibly Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), among others. Sen. Booker will have an easy ride to re-election next year, but his heavy activity could be a clue that he is preparing another presidential run.

A key point from the report comes from Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL). He has not yet said if he will seek a sixth term next year. Age is an issue because he will turn 82 just after the 2026 election. The fact that Sen. Durbin raised only $42,000 during the entire 1st quarter when the incumbent average for the period was $1.18 million suggests we may see another retirement announcement soon forthcoming.

House

In House reporting, 462 presumed candidates filed disclosure statements. The aggregate House money raised for the 1st Quarter 2025 was $177,248,000 for a mean average of $383,653 per unit.

This number actually skews high because 31 House candidates, 28 of whom are incumbents, each raised over $1 million for the quarter. The most well-known House members did the best.

The top quarter fundraiser was Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) with a huge $9.55 million obtained. In fact, despite being in the minority, Democratic candidates were the top three first quarter fundraisers. Following Ocasio-Cortez are Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) with $3.7 million raised with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) closely behind posting $3.6 million in receipts.

Not surprisingly, the top Republican was House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) who gathered $3.23 million. The two other top GOP fundraisers were also conference leaders, Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) with dollar totals of $2.43 million and $1.98 million.

Three non-incumbents were in the $1 million-plus club for the first quarter, and they, too, are Democrats. New York candidate Blake Gendebien raised $3.05 million in preparation for an anticipated special election to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville), but such a vote will not occur this year as her nomination to the United Nations was withdrawn. Gendebien can be expected to run in the 2026 general election, however, particularly if Rep. Stefanik decides to enter the New York Governor’s campaign.

Colorado candidate Manny Rutinel and Wisconsin’s Rebecca Cooke also topped $1 million in gross receipts, but it appears they will have to spend much of their money against other Democrats. Each is being challenged for the party nomination in CO-8 and WI-3 to oppose Reps. Gabe Evans (R-CO) and Derrick Van Orden (R-WI), respectively.

Perhaps the bigger surprise of the fundraising quarter is how much money the most aggressive incumbents have in the bank. The average cash-on-hand figure for the 31 individuals in the million-plus club is $3.75 million. This number, however, is skewed by the four members with the most in their campaign committee accounts.

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) has the most cash at $19.5 million on hand. He has so much largely because Sen. Dick Durbin (D) may retire, and the Congressman is a virtual certain contender to run for an open Senate seat. The other three are: Reps. Khanna ($13.4 million), Ritchie Torres (D-NY) who may run for Governor ($12.85 million), and Ocasio-Cortez ($8.3 million).

Together, these four members hold 46.4 percent of the total cash-on-hand of the 31 top House fundraisers. The average cash-on-hand figure for the other 27 is $2.31 million.

Stefanik Eyes Run for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 18, 2025

Governor

New York US Rep. Elise Stefanik /
Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

The Politico publication ran a story Wednesday reporting that New York US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) is being courted to run for Governor, and she’s apparently considering the move.

Rep. Stefanik, originally appointed as US Ambassador to the United Nations but then pulled back when it appeared Republicans could lose her Upstate New York House seat in a special election, was subsequently appointed as Chair of the House Republican Leadership. In this position, she coordinates between the elected leadership and the Conference members. It was created for her as a consolation, if you will, for having her UN nomination pulled back, especially when Senate confirmation was virtually assured.

Now, discussion of her running for Governor comes into focus from what is her decidedly blue home state. The last time a Republican won the New York Governorship occurred when then-Gov. George Pataki clinched a third term in 2006. Prior to Pataki’s tenure, one must return to 1970 to see a Republican, Nelson Rockefeller for the fourth time, elected as New York’s Governor.

It is clear that Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is vulnerable, but could Stefanik, or any Republican, beat her? In 2022, then-US Representative and now EPA Administrator in the Trump Administration Lee Zeldin performed well, especially on his native Long Island, but lost statewide 53-47 percent. Still, this was the best Republican gubernatorial performance since then-Gov. Pataki’s final victory in 2006.

On the negative side, the Governor’s favorability numbers have been upside-down for at least part of her tenure. Gov. Hochul assumed office in August 2021 from her Lieutenant Governor’s position after then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) was forced to resign because of a personal scandal. Hochul was then elected in her own right in 2022, defeating Zeldin as mentioned above.

The latest published Hochul favorability rating comes from Siena College, in an early March poll conducted through live interviews over the month’s 2nd through 6th period from a sampling universe of 806 registered New York voters. According to this survey, the Governor’s personal favorability index was 40:50 percent positive to negative. Among the 395 tested Democrats, her ratio is 59:34 percent, which is low for an incumbent within his or her own party.

In addition to facing what should be a competitive general election, Gov. Hochul will apparently be forced to fight for renomination. It is possible that both Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado and US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) could launch primary challenges against the Governor.

The Siena College poll tested a potential Democratic primary and found the Governor leading both Delgado and Torres, 46-11-10 percent. This result is similar to a Data for Progress survey conducted later in the month (March 26-31; 767 likely New York Democratic primary voters; online) that saw a 51-11-11 percent ballot test response, again in Gov. Hochul’s favor.

Still, these numbers are not particularly impressive for a sitting Governor in her own party primary. Her best case scenario would be if both men entered the race. That way, the anti-Hochul vote would be split between two candidates, which would allow the Governor to win renomination with a lower percentage.

Of her two potential Democratic opponents, Delgado appears the more likely to run. Even though Hochul chose him as her running mate for the 2022 election, Delgado says he will not appear with her in the coming election.

On the Republican side, in addition to Rep. Stefanik apparently being interested, US Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) had long been touted as a possible gubernatorial candidate. Assuming that Stefanik enters the Governor’s race and obtains a Trump endorsement, which is likely, Rep. Lawler would be a clear underdog for the party nomination. Under this scenario, his best option would likely be to seek re-election in his 17th Congressional District.

Though Gov. Hochul appears to currently be in a weakened political position, it is probable that she will ultimately be favored to win the Democratic nomination and, in the end, the succeeding general election.

Republicans may be showing more competitive signs in New York — in November, President Donald Trump improved his 2020 performance by more than 11 percentage points, the highest increase of any state — but the party is still a long way from knocking on the door of an Empire State major victory.

Rogers Announces for Senate

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 17, 2025

Senate

Former Michigan Congressman Mike Rogers (R)

Republicans now have a top-tier US Senate candidate to compete for the open Michigan seat.

Former seven-term US Rep. Mike Rogers (R), who rose to chair the House Intelligence Committee and came within 19,006 votes of upsetting now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) in November, announced that he will return in 2026 to compete for the state’s second open Senate seat in consecutive election cycles.

In the 2024 general election, Rogers defied the polling that predicted a more comfortable victory for then-Rep. Slotkin. He also was at a major fundraising disadvantage, a problem he won’t likely face in this campaign.

Immediately, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Tim Scott (R-SC) endorsed Rogers.

On the other hand, US Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) confirms he is considering a Senate bid and will decide about running later in the year. Huizenga flirted with a statewide run before but ultimately backed away.

For the Democrats, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) is an announced Senate candidate. US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) is sending signals that she will soon enter the race, as is Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Former state House Speaker Joe Tate and term-limited Attorney General Dana Nessel are possible candidates. Former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who was leading in early Senate polling, last month announced that he would not enter the race.

The open Michigan Senate race with incumbent Gary Peters (D) retiring promises to be one of the top 2026 US Senate campaigns.

The Wolverine State has a long history of electing Democrats to the Senate, and the GOP’s path to victory remains difficult despite coming close to winning in November. Since the 1954 election, only two Republicans have won Senate elections: Robert Griffin who lost his seat in 1978 to Democrat Carl Levin who would go onto win five additional terms, and Spence Abraham who won in 1994 but lost to Democrat Debbie Stabenow in 2000. Sen. Stabenow served until she retired in the last cycle.

Michigan, for the first time in the modern political era, will feature an open Governor and open Senate race in the same election cycle. For a Republican to win either of these 2026 statewide campaigns, they will have to perform as well as President Donald Trump did in 2024.

In November, the President carried 74 of Michigan’s 83 counties but still lost all of the populous metro entities. Therefore, the eventual GOP nominees for Senate, presumably Rogers, and Governor, presumably James, must also do as well as President Trump in the metro counties. Statewide, he defeated then-Vice President Kamala Harris, 49.7 – 48.3 percent, a margin of 80,103 votes.

The Trump urban/metro benchmark percentages are 47.2 (Genesee County-Flint), 34.1 (Ingham County-Lansing), 40.3 (Kalamazoo County), 46.4 (Kent County-Grand Rapids), 45.4 (Leelanau County-Traverse City), 44.8 (Marquette County-Upper Peninsula), 43.7 (Oakland County-Detroit Metro), 26.6 (Washtenaw County-Ann Arbor), and 33.7 (Wayne County-Detroit and Dearborn).

Considering the three-way split in the Governor’s race, it will likely be easier for the Republican nominee to win here because Mayor Duggan, who will be a significant Independent candidate, is likely to take a major chunk of Wayne County votes away from the Democratic nominee.

Perhaps the only clear point about the 2026 Michigan election cycle is the political analysis world will be paying a great deal of attention to its happenings from beginning to end.