Comeback Members

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 11, 2025

House

Ex-US Rep. Mayra Flores of Texas

Looking at the early congressional race announcements, we already see a number of former US House members either preparing or considering campaigns for the purpose of returning to their former position.

At this point, we could see as many as 10 ex-members embarking upon the campaign trail. Former Reps. Mayra Flores (R-TX), Jerry Carl (R-AL), Hilda Solis (D-CA), Rod Blum (R-IA), Melissa Bean (D-IL), Andy Levin (D-MI), David Trott (I-MI), Madison Cawthorn (R-NC), Chris Collins (R-NY), and Ben McAdams (D-UT) have all indicated they are either entering a 2026 congressional race or seriously considering doing so.

In south Texas, ex-Rep. Flores won a special election in 2022 but was defeated for the seat in the regular term. She subsequently lost a close comeback race in 2024. In the newly configured and more Republican 34th District, her chances against Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) are greatly improved.

Jerry Carl served two terms from southern Alabama’s 1st District. He was denied renomination in 2024 when a court-ordered secondary redistricting map paired he and fellow Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise). Moore won the primary but is now running for the Senate, thus providing Carl the opportunity of returning to Congress. In the early going, he appears to be a heavy favorite to win the Republican nomination and the seat in November of 2026.

Hilda Solis, an elected member of the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, said last week that she will seek the new 38th Congressional District if voters approve the Gov. Gavin Newsom-initiated congressional gerrymander to replace the California Citizens Commission map in retaliation for the Texas redistricting effort. Voters must approve a referendum in a Nov. 4 special election in order for the map to take effect.

Supervisor Solis, also a former US Labor Secretary under President Obama, served in the House from 2001-2009. The move to return to Congress would be a curious one because most people believe a seat on the five-member LA Board of Supervisors is more powerful than being a US Representative. In fact, Supervisor Janice Hahn gave up a seat in Congress to run for the Board in 2016.

Florida’s 19th District might be hosting the most interesting open race in the country. While it is not particularly unusual to see three former office holders running in a congressional primary, the fact that all three represented constituencies in different states makes this a unique battle.

Former Rep. Collins and ex-Illinois state Sen. Jim Oberweis are announced candidates. Collins served an Upstate New York district for three terms. He was convicted of insider trading and served three months in prison until President Trump commuted his sentence at the end of 2020. Oberweis ran three times for statewide offices in Illinois and three times for a congressional seat while twice being elected to the state Senate.

The newcomer in this scenario, Ex-Rep. Cawthorn, lost his western North Carolina seat because of ill-advised public statements and actions during his lone term in the House. He is not yet a candidate in the Florida seat but confirms consideration.

With candidate filing scheduled for April 24 for the associated Aug. 18 primary election, much time remains for potential candidates to make their moves. Several Florida local and state officials are considering entering, thus giving the voters choices among officeholders who even represent constituencies within their region.

Former Iowa US Rep. Blum was first elected to his eastern Iowa district in 2014, replacing Democrat Bruce Braley who ran unsuccessfully that year for US Senate. Blum was re-elected in 2016 but lost to then-state Rep. Abby Finkenauer in 2018. Two years later, then-state Rep. Ashley Hinson returned the seat to the GOP when unseating Rep. Finkenauer. Now that Rep. Hinson is a declared US Senate candidate, Blum is announcing that he will attempt to return to the House.

In Illinois, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) is risking his 8th Congressional District seat to run for the Senate. A large Democratic field is forming to replace the Congressman, and the succession battle will likely be decided next March in the Democratic primary. Ten Democrats have announced, but only one, Cook County Commissioner Kevin Morrison, has been elected to a significant post.

This opens the door for former Rep. Bean, who represented the 8th District for three terms before losing her seat to Republican Joe Walsh in 2016. Two years later, Krishnamoorthi unseated Rep. Walsh. Bean has yet to announce but confirms she is considering the race. With such a crowded field, and a plurality format in place, her victory chances clearly would be favorable.

Former Michigan Rep. Levin was paired in 2022 with Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) because Michigan forfeited a congressional seat in reapportionment and he lost in a decisive margin. With Rep. Stevens now running for Senate, Levin is reportedly considering a comeback. The same for retired Rep. David Trott, in terms of consideration, though he would run as an Independent instead of a Republican.

Finally, if the new court-ordered redistricting map creates a Salt Lake City-anchored Democratic seat in Utah, former one-term Rep. McAdams, who lost his seat to current Rep. Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City) in 2020, says he would seriously consider making a return run.

Walkinshaw Wins in Virginia;
A Redistricting Check-Up

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 10, 2025

VA-11

Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D)

Last night, Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) easily defeated Republican former FBI agent Stewart Whitson, 75-25 percent, in the safely Democratic seat to win the special congressional election. Walkinshaw will replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D), who passed away in May. The Congressman-Elect will serve the balance of the current term and be favored to win again in the 2026 regular election.

Upon being sworn into the House, the partisan division will move to 219R-213D, with three vacancies. The next special election will be held on Sept. 23 in Arizona’s 7th CD where former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D) is favored to win the seat of her late father, Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson), who passed away in March.

Redistricting

It is getting to the point of not being able to keep track of the various congressional redistricting efforts ‘without a scorecard.’ Below, are the latest developments in states where redistricting is actively occurring or being discussed:

• Alabama: It is possible that the Alabama map could be redrawn depending upon the US Supreme Court’s ruling on the Louisiana case, since the two states have virtually identical pending litigation. If the high court upholds the lower court ruling for Louisiana, then it is possible Alabama could follow suit and redraw its map. A second Louisiana round of oral arguments is scheduled for Oct. 15. A redraw would likely add one seat to the Republican column.

• California: A referendum to replace the California Citizens Redistricting Commission map is on the statewide special election ballot for Nov. 4. If voters approve, a new congressional map will be in place for the 2026 election that is projected to give Democrats five more seats and take the state’s partisan division to 48D-4R.

• Colorado: An activist group will attempt to file a constitutional amendment initiative for the 2026 ballot to redraw Colorado’s congressional map. Under the state’s election laws, constitutional amendments must pass with a minimum 55 percent voter approval. The amendment would give the political leaders the power to replace the Colorado Independent Congressional Redistricting Commission map.

The proposed plan projects to a two seat gain for Democrats. If the activists are successful with the ballot approach, the earliest election a new map could take effect would be 2028.

Florida: It appears likely that the Florida legislature will consider a new congressional map when the new session begins in January. An interim legislative committee was constructed to draw the plan. Projections suggest Republicans would gain two seats in the delegation if a new map is enacted. Doing so would push the partisan division to 22R-6D.

Illinois: While Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) was talking about a redraw of the Illinois map, doing so would not be practical. The Illinois map is already the most gerrymandered in the country with a partisan division of 14D-3R, and it is likely not conceivable for Democrats to do better. Chances are good that a redraw will not happen, especially with a fast approaching 2026 candidate filing deadline of Nov. 3.

Indiana: The White House continues to push for a Hoosier State redraw, but it is unclear whether the legislature will address the issue in their new session. The most extreme map would eliminate the state’s two Democratic seats and result in a 9R-0D plan. This situation has not yet solidified.

Kansas: Redistricting discussions are underway in Kansas, and there is talk that the legislature could move toward a special session. Since it is clear that Gov. Laura Kelly (D) will not call the legislature back, two-thirds of members from both houses must support the move for a special session.

Should a session be called and a 4R-0D map introduced, Republicans would realistically need two-thirds support for the legislation in both houses because Gov. Kelly is sure to veto what the legislature produces. Seeing a new Kansas plan being enacted is a long shot.

Louisiana: As discussed in the Alabama section above, the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case currently before the US Supreme Court has the potential of being a landmark case. We won’t see a ruling until later in the year, but this case could set the tone for the entire mid-decade redistricting cycle. In addition to Alabama, the decision could affect the new Texas map.

Maryland: Democratic legislators have introduced a bill that would allow the legislature to address changing their congressional map if other states successfully alter their boundaries. Any new map would target the state’s lone Republican House member, Rep. Andy Harris (R-Cambridge) and result in an 8D-0R delegation.

Missouri: The state House of Representatives just passed a map that changes Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D) Kansas City-anchored 5th District into a Republican seat by stretching it into the rural areas. The state Senate is expected to follow suit, and Gov. Mike Kehoe (R) will reportedly sign the new map into law. Therefore, chances of Republicans gaining one seat in Missouri are high.

Ohio: Legislators are soon going to draw a new congressional map and must do so under state law. Because the 2021 congressional plan did not receive three-fifths vote in each legislative house, the map could only stand for two elections, those in 2022 and 2024. Therefore, the legislators must draw a new plan for 2026 and beyond.

Republicans hope to gain two seats in the re-map, those of Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) and Emilia Sykes (D-Akron). It remains to be seen exactly how the map will be configured, but creating a new congressional plan is a certainty.

Texas: The new Texas plan has been enacted, and the expected voting rights legal challenge has been filed in an El Paso federal court. Assuming the map stands, Republicans could gain as many as five seats but only if the Trump numbers among South Texas Hispanics translate to a Republican congressional candidate. Obviously, Texas will become one of the key states that determines the next US House majority.

Utah: A Utah court has struck down the current congressional map, saying the legislature did not have the authority to bypass voter approved redistricting guidelines. Therefore, the legislature is moving forward to draw a new plan. The decision could lead to a new Democratic urban seat in Salt Lake City. Thus, the current 4R-0D delegation could allow Democrats to gain one seat.

Wisconsin: Earlier in the year, the state Supreme Court rebuffed a move to redraw the congressional map. Activists have re-started the legal process, but reaching the state Supreme Court for reconsideration will be a lengthy process and likely won’t happen to affect the 2026 election.

The Return of John E. Sununu?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 9, 2025

Senate

GOP leaders were unsuccessful with one Sununu, but they may get another.

While national Republicans failed to recruit former Gov. Chris Sununu into the open New Hampshire Senate race, ex-US Sen. John E. Sununu, brother of the four-term Granite State chief executive, has been traveling throughout New Hampshire and confirms that entering the race is under consideration.

Ex-Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire Republican Senate nominee Scott Brown is an announced candidate, but he is trailing Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) in polling and currently would not make this open race a top-tier national campaign. A recent St. Anselm College poll (Aug. 26-27; 1,800 New Hampshire registered voters; online) found Rep. Pappas topping former Sen. Brown, 48-37 percent. Opposite state Sen. Dan Innis (R-Bradford), the Pappas lead expands to blow-out proportions, 48-30 percent.

Chris and John E. Sununu are the sons of former White House chief of staff in the George H.W. Bush Administration and ex-three term New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu. John E. Sununu served three terms in the US House, from 1997-2003, and was elected to the Senate, defeating then-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D), in 2002.

Six years later, Shaheen returned to unseat Sen. Sununu in the first Obama election and remains in office. Her announced retirement has placed the in-cycle New Hampshire seat into the open category.

New Hampshire is regarded as a swing state yet, except when facing the Sununu’s, Democrats typically win the competitive races. That paradigm changed, however, when former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R), who was defeated for re-election in 2016, rebounded to win the Governor’s campaign last November. Because New Hampshire is one of two states that limit their Governors to two-year terms – Vermont is the other – Gov. Ayotte will again be on the ballot in 2026.

New Hampshire has not been overly friendly to President Trump, because he failed to carry the state in all three of his elections. The average Trump Granite State vote is 46.5 percent, and his closest finish, which occurred in 2016, saw him coming within three-tenths of a percentage point from overtaking Hillary Clinton. Despite running well nationally in 2024, the President still lost a 50.3 – 47.6 percent New Hampshire decision to Kamala Harris.

Prior to Gov. Sununu publicly declining to run for the Senate, he led Rep. Pappas in early polling. In late March, Quantas Insights, for example, found Gov. Sununu running ahead of Rep. Pappas by a substantial 53-44 percent margin. Whether John E. Sununu can bring the race back into contention remains to be seen, but it is likely he will poll much closer to Rep. Pappas than any other potential Republican candidate.

For his part, Pappas, who was elected to the House in 2018 from the state’s eastern 1st District, won before an electorate that had defeated more incumbents than any in the country during the period between 2004 and 2018. Rep. Pappas has been able to secure the district, however, averaging 53.2 percent of the vote in his four congressional elections.

Prior to his service in Congress, Pappas was an elected member of the state’s unique five-member Executive Council, which has veto powers over a Governor’s appointments along with other duties and responsibilities. He previously won election as the Hillsborough County Treasurer and to the NH House of Representatives.

Declaring for the Senate immediately after incumbent Shaheen announced her retirement, Rep. Pappas has maneuvered himself into position as the consensus Democratic candidate and will have little trouble in securing the party nomination in September of next year.

Should John E. Sununu decide to enter the Senate race, it will be interesting to see if Brown will step aside. Because the legislature did not act upon Gov. Ayotte’s proposal to move the state’s primary to an earlier month, the GOP nominee could be in a significant underdog position after a bruising primary since so little time remains between the Sept. 8, 2026, primary and the subsequent November general election.

A Pappas-Sununu race would likely become highly competitive, placing the seat in play for the GOP. Therefore, the John E. Sununu potential candidacy is a developing story worth attention.

Special Election Season Begins

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 8, 2025

Special Elections

As we know, the House has four vacant seats and the first in a series of rapid special elections will occur tomorrow.

In Virginia’s 11th District, the battle to replace late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) will largely be anticlimactic. The VA-11 seat is heavily Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 67.2D – 30.7R; Harris ’24: 65.7 – 31.4 percent), so an easy win for Fairfax County Supervisor and former Connolly chief of staff James Walkinshaw (D) is a prediction that all political prognosticators share.

The district is fully contained within Fairfax County and includes Fairfax City. A 2:1 Walkinshaw victory is expected over former FBI agent Stewart Whitson (R).

Two weeks after tomorrow’s Virginia special election, on Sept. 23, voters in the Tucson, Arizona area will participate in an election to replace the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D), who died in March. The clear favorite to succeed Grijalva is the special election’s Democratic nominee, Adelita Grijalva, the Congressman’s daughter who is a former Pima County Supervisor. Ms. Grijalva won the special Democratic primary in July with 61.5% of the vote over four intra-party opponents.

As in VA-11, Arizona’s 7th Congressional District is strongly Democratic. The DRA partisan lean is 65.5D – 32.3R. Kamala Harris carried this district, 60.5 – 38.4 percent, in a place where she lost the statewide vote. Just like VA-11, this district’s Democratic nominee is expected to win in a proportion consistent with the partisan lean calculation.

Once Walkinshaw and Ms. Grijalva are sworn into office, the partisan division will feature 219 Republicans, 214 Democrats with two remaining vacancies (1D; 1R).

On Oct. 7 in western Tennessee, we will see perhaps the most interesting special primary election to date, as multiple candidates from both parties are seriously vying for their party’s nomination. On the favored Republican side, 11 contenders are competing including three state Representatives and a Montgomery County Commissioner. For the Democrats, three Nashville area state Representatives and a businessman have qualified for the ballot.

Though the voter history suggests a comfortable Republican win will result in TN-7 (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 55.1R – 42.1D; President Trump: 60.4 – 38.1 percent), Democrats believe they have a chance to pull an upset. They cite increased Democratic performances around the country in special elections as the basis for their political optimism.

Tennessee features partisan special primaries, so no inter-party upset will occur on Oct. 7. The state does not include a runoff for party nominations, so it is likely we will see a pair of nominees coming forward who do not earn majority support within their own partisan electorate. The special general election is scheduled for Dec. 2.

The Volunteer State’s 7th District contains nine counties and parts of three others west of Nashville and stretches from Kentucky to Alabama on a north to south plane. The CD includes part of Nashville city in Davidson County along with the Clarksville, Parsons, and Waynesboro municipalities.

Incumbent Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) resigned the office earlier in the year to accept a position in the private sector. Before Green, Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R), now a gubernatorial candidate, represented the 7th CD for 16 years.

The final special election, scheduled for Nov. 4 in Houston, features 35 candidates (22 Democrats, 7 Republicans, and 6 minor party or Independent contenders). The candidate filing deadline was Sept. 3, so it remains to be seen how many of the 35 officially qualify for the ballot.

The TX-18 contest to replace the late Representative and former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) is certainly the most unique among the special elections.

Assuming a runoff will be required from the large field since no one is likely to secure majority support in the initial vote, Gov. Greg Abbott will then schedule the secondary election between the top two finishers when it becomes a mathematical certainty that no one received a majority. This means the runoff may not be held until early January.

While the new Texas map has been adopted into law, it must still pass the legal tests. If so, the eventual special election winner, and it will almost certainly be a Democratic candidate from the party’s safest Texas seat (DRA partisan lean: 73.6D – 24.4R), will immediately most likely be forced to face veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) to compete in the regular election Democratic primary for a full term.

The regular election Democratic primary will occur in a newly configured 18th District on March 3rd that only contains 26 percent of the current 18th and 65 percent of Rep. Green’s 9th CD.

The new redistricting plan has certainly made life difficult for whoever wins the 18th District special election. The eventual winner having a short tenure in Congress appears likely and will prove a side effect of the 2025 Texas redistricting effort.

Sen. Padilla for Governor?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 5, 2025

Governor

California Sen. Alex Padilla (D) | Facebook photo

During recent interviews, California Sen. Alex Padilla (D) has confirmed that he is considering entering the 2026 open Governor’s race. If he does, that contest will fundamentally change.

While the Senator says he will not decide whether to run until the special redistricting election concludes in November, the clues we will see between now and then will reveal his ultimate intention. The fact that he is publicly not denying contemplating such a move suggests that he is leaning toward launching his candidacy.

Though only 52 years old, Sen. Padilla has already enjoyed a long California political career.

Elected to the Los Angeles City Council at the age of 26, he became Council President just two years later. After serving seven years on the City Council, Padilla was elected to the state Senate. He would easily win re-election to a second four-year term (at the time, state Senators were limited to two terms) and then ran statewide in 2014 for California Secretary of State and was elected.

Padilla would win re-election to his statewide position in 2018, and then Gov. Gavin Newsom appointed him to the US Senate replacing Kamala Harris when she resigned to become Vice President. He won election to a full US Senate term in 2022.

With experience winning statewide elections – in his two victories as Secretary of State and one for US Senate, Padilla averaged 59.7 percent of the vote – Sen. Padilla would certainly have an advantage over the rest of the large field that features 69 announced candidates for the all-party jungle primary. Within this large group that generally features minor candidates, only two have won a statewide election.

Before becoming US Health and Human Services Secretary in the Biden Administration, Xavier Becerra, who spent 24 years in the US House, was elected state Attorney General after then-Gov. Jerry Brown (D) appointed him to fill then-AG Kamala Harris’ vacancy when she was elected to the US Senate. San Francisco’s Betty Yee, a former Vice Chair of the California Democratic Party, was twice elected State Controller.

The other candidates of note are the early polling leader, former Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-Orange County), state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego), and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D). The two most prominent Republicans are Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Fox News host and policy analyst Steve Hilton.

While former Rep. Porter has led in the two reputable August statewide polls, one from Emerson College and the other the University of California at Berkeley, she has failed to reach even 20 percent of the preference vote. Adding a candidate of Sen. Padilla’s stature would very likely have a drastic impact on future polls.

As we know, Gov. Newsom is ineligible to seek a third term. Should Sen. Padilla run for Governor in 2026, he would be the fourth US Senator to do so, joining Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville, Michael Bennet of Colorado, and Tennessee’s Marsha Blackburn.

Adding Padilla to this list portends that three of the four, with Sen. Tuberville being the exception, are not risking their position to run for Governor. This also means, if all prove victorious and each would be favored, the three enjoying free rides would then be able to appoint their own US Senate successor.

Iowa Rep. Hinson Declares
Her Candidacy for Senate

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 4, 2025

Senate

Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) / Facebook photo

On the heels of Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) announcing her retirement earlier this week, three-term US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) quickly declared her candidacy for the now open Iowa Senate seat.

Rep. Hinson will be a strong statewide candidate. In the House since 2021, a state Representative for two terms, and a Cedar Rapids ABC affiliate news anchor before running for office, Congresswoman Hinson has both the political and media experience necessary to be a strong candidate. Though the Republicans are losing an incumbent on the 2026 statewide ballot, Rep. Hinson will give the party everything they need to hold the open Senate seat.

The Democratic field is expected to remain constant. It features state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs), Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, and local Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage. The open Governor’s race has attracted the state’s lone statewide Democratic officeholder, State Auditor Rob Sand.

Although Rep. Hinson’s 2nd Congressional District being in an open situation leaves competitive potential. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 51.4R – 45.3D partisan lean. President Trump carried the IA-2 district with a 54-44 percent victory margin over Kamala Harris. In 2020, Hinson defeated one-term Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) who had unseated then-Rep. Rod Blum (R) in 2018.

Iowa is one of 31 states that register voters with partisan affiliation. In the 2nd District, 450,332 individuals are actively registered to vote. A total of 36.1 percent affiliate as Republican, 33.4 percent as No Party, 29.8 percent Democratic, and 0.7 percent as “Other.”

Therefore, the statistics suggest that this northeastern Iowa district leans Republican but, as in 2018 when Finkenauer won, the seat has flip potential in a strong Democratic year.

Expect to see political musical chairs begin among state legislators who represent districts that fall within the 2nd CD boundaries. It is likely we will see several current or former lawmakers come forward. One person already reportedly making fundraising calls and informing potential supporters that he is going to run is Trump Administration HUD official Joe Mitchell, a former state Senator.

Turning to the Democratic side, four individuals are already active candidates including state Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque). The other candidates are ex-nursing college dean and retired Army Lt. Col. Kathy Dolter, 2020 local office nominee Don Primus, and pastor and non-profit organization founder Clint Twedt-Ball. It is probable we will soon see other Democrats also come to the forefront.

The 2nd District lies in Iowa’s northeast sector under the state’s quadrant congressional redistricting plan. It borders the Mississippi River and Illinois on the east and Minnesota to the north.

Under the rather unique plan, incumbents’ residences are not considered when drawing maps, and all counties are kept whole within each individual CD. Thus, the 2nd District houses 13 complete counties with four significant population centers. In order of size from large to small, the inhabitant clusters are the cities of Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, Dubuque, and Mason City.

Counting IA-2, a total of 31 seats are now in the open category (15R, 12D, with three new as a result of Texas redistricting), and Rep. Hinson becomes the tenth House member to run for the Senate in the current election cycle. Once the four special elections to fill vacant seats conclude beginning next week and running through early next year, the open seat will at least temporarily drop to 27.

Rep. Jerrold Nadler to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 3, 2025

House

Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-New York City) | Facebook photo

The open seat count in the US House rose to 30 yesterday, at least temporarily, as 17-term Empire State Congressman Jerrold Nadler (D-New York City) announced that he will not seek re-election next year.

The decision ends a long New York political career that featured Nadler holding an elected office consecutively since the beginning of 1977 when adding his combined time in Congress and the New York State Assembly.

In an interview with the New York Times, Rep. Nadler indicated that the generation gap was an issue in making his retirement decision. He said, “[w]atching the Biden thing really said something about the necessity for generational change in the party, and I think I want to respect that…” Nadler will be 79 years old when the 2026 election is held.

Rep. Nadler’s 12th Congressional District lies fully within the Borough of Manhattan and contains most of Central Park. It stretches from the island’s western border at the Hudson River across Manhattan to the East River. NY-12 is the smallest area district in the country.

The Nadler departure is likely to leave a very crowded Democratic primary in his wake. With a partisan lean of 83.9D – 13.7R (Dave’s Redistricting App), the Nadler successor will be the eventual Democratic nominee.

Kamala Harris defeated President Trump in the 12th District, 81-17 percent, which was down from President Biden’s 85-14 percent win in 2020. We can expect several state legislators and New York City Councilmembers to enter the race.

Another possible candidate is former NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, a previous Manhattan Borough President and ex-state Assemblyman. Stringer finished fifth in the 2025 mayoral primary, and while he has had success in winning past New York City elections, his poor electoral showing in the most recent contest isn’t likely to frighten other prospective candidates.

Within the national open seat count, 15 are Republican-held districts as opposed to 12 from the Democratic side. The remaining three are new seats created through the Texas redistricting process. Nadler is the only New York member currently not seeking re-election. Among the 30 opens, only two — MI-10 (Rep. John James-R) and NE-2 (Rep. Don Bacon-R) — can legitimately be considered as toss-up campaigns heading into the 2026 elections.

Four of the opens will be filled in upcoming special elections. Pertaining to the vacating House members, nine are running for the Senate, eight for Governor of their respective state, and one, Texas Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin), entered the race for state Attorney General. Rep. Nadler becomes the fifth member opting to retire from elective politics.

The open-seat list will recede next Tuesday when the VA-11 special election is held to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D). Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw, a former Connolly chief of staff, is the prohibitive favorite to defeat Republican Stewart Whitson, a former FBI agent.

Two weeks later, on Sept. 23, the AZ-7 special election will be conducted to replace the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D). Former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D), the deceased Congressman’s daughter, is the big favorite to win the vacated seat.

Shortly thereafter on Oct. 7, both Republicans and Democrats will choose special election nominees from crowded fields in western Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. The eventual party nominees will advance to a Dec. 2 special general election. The winner will replace resigned Rep. Mark Green (R), who left the House to accept a position in the private sector.

The final special election is scheduled concurrently with the municipal election day, Nov. 4, and will occur in Houston’s 18th Congressional District. A large field is competing for the safely Democratic seat, but the eventual winner will immediately find him or herself in a paired incumbent battle with Rep. Al Green (D-Houston), under the newly enacted Texas redistricting map, in an early March 3 primary election.