Senate Turnover

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 22, 2025

Senate

Without any incumbent losing in the 2026 election, it is possible we will see as many as a dozen new Senators come to Washington when the 120th Congress convenes. Obviously, the number will grow even higher should any incumbent fall to a challenger, and further retirements as state candidate filing deadlines begin to approach are of course possible.

At this point, eight Senators have announced they will not seek re-election, but the cycle’s wild card is potentially seeing five Senators running for Governor in their respective states. This unusually high number includes four Senators who are not in-cycle, meaning they would not have to risk their current position to enter the state race.

Currently, Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) are announced gubernatorial candidates. Two more, Sens. Alex Padilla (D-CA) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), have made public statements admitting they are considering entering open Governor’s races in their states. From this entire group, only Sen. Tuberville is eschewing re-election to run for Governor.

Sen. Padilla said he will wait to determine if he will launch a gubernatorial bid until the special redistricting vote scheduled for Nov. 4. Just this week, Sen. Murkowski again said she “isn’t ruling out” running for Governor of Alaska and made the point of having the “luxury” of waiting until deeper in the election cycle to make a final decision.

All of the Senators running or potentially running for Governor have or would have a strong chance of winning. This means that all but one would have the opportunity of appointing their own successor to the Senate upon election. Already speculation is running high in places like Colorado and Tennessee as to who will be the chosen replacement. Alabama voters will choose their next Senator in the 2026 regular election.

Of the 35 Senate races in the ’26 election cycle, including the two special elections in Florida and Ohio, Republicans must defend 22 of the in-cycle seats as compared to just 13 for the Democrats. Today, it appears that only three are in the toss-up category, Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina, with the remaining 32 being safe for the incumbent party or at least leaning in its direction.

A Georgia poll released just this week (Quantus Insights; Sept. 9-12; 624 likely Georgia general election voters; online and text) projects Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) and Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) locked in a 38-38 percent tie.

In the open Michigan race, Republican Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate contest by just 19,006 votes (three-tenths of a percentage point), has an unencumbered path to the Republican nomination, while the Democrats are embroiled in a three-way primary battle that won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

Recent North Carolina polling data (Change Research; Sept. 2-8; 855 likely North Carolina voters; online) finds former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) leading ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley 48-41 percent in a race to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R) that is expected to be close through the entire campaign.

In the races involving Senators running for Governor, Sen. Tuberville to date faces no major Alabama Republican primary opposition in his open race. Incumbent Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. A Democratic nominee will have a difficult time overcoming Sen. Tuberville in the general election. The party hopes to recruit former Sen. Doug Jones into the race, but he lost to Tuberville 60-40 percent in the 2020 Senate campaign. Therefore, Sen. Tuberville appears as a lock to win the Governorship next year.

Colorado Sen. Bennet would have little trouble in his state’s open Governor’s election as incumbent Jared Polis (D) is also term-limited in 2026. In the Democratic primary, Attorney General Phil Weiser remains in the race, and he is Sen. Bennet’s strongest potential opponent. The only published poll of this campaign came from the Global Strategy Group in June (June 9-11; 600 likely Colorado Democratic primary voters; live interview) and posted Sen. Bennet to a strong 53-22 percent advantage over Weiser.

Tennessee Sen. Blackburn faces GOP primary opposition in the person of Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville). The latest poll comes from Quantus Insights (Aug. 5-7; 600 registered Tennessee voters; online & text) and posts Sen. Blackburn to a large 35-6 percent lead for the party nomination.

California Sen. Padilla would be a very formidable candidate, and likely the favorite, in the open Governor’s race to replace incumbent Gavin Newsom (D). A large jungle primary field awaits with no candidate so far even reaching 20 percent in any poll. The ostensible leader by a small percentage is former Rep. Katie Porter (D), but a Padilla entry would almost certainly allow him to advance into the general election. There, he would be a big favorite even in a two-way Democratic November campaign.

Sen. Murkowski, on the other hand, should she run for Governor, could face major general election opposition. Waiting in the wings is Democratic former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola. Even though she lost a close 2024 general election, Peltola remains a popular figure and would clearly be the Democrats’ best option to convert the Governor’s position away from the Republicans. As in other discussed situations, incumbent Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek re-election.

The addition of multiple Senators running as candidates for Governor across the nation changes the 2026 Senate election cycle. Therefore, it is probable we will see several more freshman Senators in 2027 than the regular election will produce.

Georgia’s Sen. Ossoff in Dead Heat

See 2026 Georgia Senate poll results: Quantas Insights.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 19, 2025

Senate

As we know, the swing state of Georgia will be one of the key battleground 2026 US Senate domains, and a new statewide poll released earlier this week confirms the race will present challenges for both sides.

Georgia Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff

The Quantus Insights Peach State poll finds first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) falling into a dead heat with one Republican US House member and leads another within the polling margin of error. Yet, as we have seen in some other places, the polling sample shows issue inconsistencies within the electorate.

According to the Quantus study (Sept. 9-12; 624 likely Georgia general election voters; online and text), Sen. Ossoff and Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) are tied at 38 percent preference and Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) trails the Senator, 37-40 percent. Former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, son of long-time University of Georgia football coach Vince Dooley, is definitively behind Sen. Ossoff trailing 42-35 percent.

While other polls have shown similarly close ballot tests, the Quantus survey is interesting in that it delves more deeply into issues and reveals that both eventual nominees will have challenges in attempting to forge a winning coalition.

For example, while President Trump scores a 49 percent job approval score, Sen. Ossoff posts 47 percent, yet the two are virtually diametrically opposed on the issue agenda. Furthermore, while Sen. Ossoff posts a 47:37 percent job approval index, only 36 percent of the same sampling universe believes he deserves re-election, and 49 percent believes it is “time for a change.”

In an overwhelming number (53 percent), the poll respondents cite the cost of living and inflation as the most important issue. Crime and public safety is second (13 percent), with jobs and the economy closely behind (12 percent). The number one response, however, for why costs are rising is President Trump’s tariffs and trade policies (41 percent). The Biden Administration economic policies were the second-most mentioned cause (27 percent).

When asked which party do the Georgia respondents trust more to handle the economic issues, 40 percent said the Democrats and only 39 percent answered Republicans. On bringing down the cost of living, it is again the Democrats holding a slight edge, 36-35 percent.

On crime, however, Republicans are more trusted, 42-29 percent. Same for immigration with a 48-28 percent Republican favorable split. By a 53-40 percent majority, the respondents favor the mass deportation policy, while only 31 percent support Ossoff’s border security position. A total of 76 percent support the crime prevention Laken Riley Act, a Republican bill that Sen. Ossoff supported.

An inconsistency appears when respondents are asked to list what they believe should be the next Senator’s priorities. In order, the responses were reducing taxes for working families (39 percent), cutting wasteful federal spending (24 percent), and reducing regulations that raise prices (21 percent). This is in line with the Republican message, but the sentiment is not fully translating to the Republican candidates, particularly among Independent voters.

While Sen. Ossoff is unopposed for the Democratic nomination, on the Republican side the Quantus poll found Rep. Collins leading Rep. Carter and Dooley, 25-20-7 percent. With a large undecided pool, this campaign will go down to the wire toward the May 19 primary. If no one receives 50 percent, the top two finishers will advance to a June 16 runoff election.

As a reminder for the general election, Georgia is one of two states that also features a runoff election if no candidate receives majority support in the November vote. The post-election runoff was forced in the past two Georgia Senate elections. If this situation presents itself again in 2026, the deciding runoff will be held on Dec. 1.

As is the case in virtually every election, messaging will be key. Republicans must find a way to relate what are typically Georgia voter issue positions directly to the party’s Senate candidate, while Sen. Ossoff must find ways to improve his electoral standing even though his job approval is relatively good. It is important to note that in this poll’s ballot tests, the Senator did not break 40 percent preference against any Republican.

Along with the Senate races in Michigan, North Carolina, and Texas, the Georgia Senate battle will be a premier 2026 electoral contest.

Challenging Kentucky Rep. Massie

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 18, 2025

House

Congressman Thomas Massie (R-KY) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie (R-Garrison) has made a name for himself as the House member most likely to oppose his own party. While self-described as a conservative budget hawk, Rep. Massie has angered the party leadership and President Trump on several occasions, the most recent being his opposition to the “Big Beautiful Bill.”

While saying he is a “constitutional conservative,” Massie has also caused Republican leaders to bristle at his consistent opposition to Republican budget. Furthermore, he is now teaming up with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) to file a disclosure petition to force a floor vote pertaining to releasing the Epstein files.

The Congressman’s antics have spurred President Trump to publicly call for a Republican to come forward to challenge Rep. Massie in the party primary.

A report surfacing in The Down Ballot political blog states that Kentucky GOP leaders are now attempting to convince former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron to abandon his US Senate race and instead challenge Rep. Massie in the May 2026 Kentucky GOP primary.

Cameron shot down the story as “fake news,” but such is often the case with potential candidates before they eventually make a race to which they originally rejected. That’s not to say, however, that Cameron has a long-term plan to switch campaigns. The former AG points out that he is leading in US Senate polls, thus rhetorically questioning why he would leave that campaign.

While the latest published US Senate Republican primary survey did find Cameron leading Congressman Andy Barr (R-Lexington), 37-29 percent (Public Opinion Strategies, Sept. 2-4; 600 likely Kentucky Republican primary voters; live interview), his margin is down from the 44-18 percent lead he posted in an April McLaughlin & Associates poll (April 13-15; 500 likely Kentucky Republican primary voters; live interview).

Additionally, Cameron is way behind in campaign resources. According to the June 30 Federal Election Commission campaign financial disclosure report, Rep. Barr possessed $6.1 million in the Cash-on-Hand category while Cameron’s campaign account had only $532,000. Therefore, the campaign momentum is shifting in Rep. Barr’s favor.

Looking at the complete picture, it would not be surprising to see Cameron look for other options since Rep. Barr soon taking the lead in their primary campaign appears likely.

Despite President Trump asking for potential Republican candidates to come forward to challenge Rep. Massie, no major contender has yet entered the race. Freshman state Sen. Aaron Reed (R-Shelbyville) had been mentioned as a possibility, but no candidacy has yet materialized. Same for state Rep. Kim Moser (R-Independence).

Yet, even if Cameron were to enter the congressional race, Rep. Massie is not an easy mark, even if an eventual challenger has the Trump endorsement.

Thomas Massie was first elected to the House in 2012, after winning the Lewis County Judge-Executive position in 2010. Lewis County is a small (just over 13,000 population) rural domain on the Ohio border in Kentucky’s northeastern region. In his initial local election, Massie defeated an incumbent in the GOP primary. Moving to his first congressional race two years later, Massie became the first person to win the 4th District hailing from eastern Kentucky in 45 years.

The Congressman is also a popular figure back home, even while being unpopular in Washington. In his seven congressional elections, Rep. Massie has averaged 70.7 percent of the vote including running unopposed in 2024. He has been challenged as an incumbent in three Republican primaries and averaged 77.4 percent of the vote in those elections.

In preparation for a potential primary challenge, Rep. Massie jumped out to a fast start. Since the beginning of the year, he has raised over $1 million and reports $1.7 million cash-on-hand. This figure is more than three times what Mr. Cameron has in his statewide account, for example.

Therefore, while Massie may be President Trump’s top GOP prospect for replacement, the early prognostication favors the intransigent incumbent to win yet again.

Rep. Michael McCaul to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025

House

Congressman Michael McCaul (R-Austin)

The House retirement list continues to grow. Late last week we saw Texas US Rep. Morgan Luttrell (R-Magnolia) announce that he would not seek a third term, and now a veteran Lone Star State Congressman, Michael McCaul (R-Austin), will also retire once this Congress adjourns.

Over the weekend during a television interview, Rep. McCaul announced that he would not seek a 12th term in the House. He was originally elected in 2004 and rose to chair two full committees, the Committee on Homeland Security and House Foreign Affairs.

McCaul served his full term-limited allotment of six years heading the Homeland Security Committee. Though he chaired the Foreign Affairs panel for only two years, he was the Ranking Minority Member for the previous four. Under Republican House Conference rules, the combined position of Chairman and Ranking Member cannot exceed six years.

Congressman McCaul had been thought of as a potential Texas statewide candidate over the years but never launched such a campaign. He now plans to pursue interests outside of elective politics when his current congressional term ends at the beginning of 2027.

The combined retirement announcements of Reps. Luttrell and McCaul mean that at least seven of Texas’ 38 congressional seats will be open for the 2026 election. Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) is retiring, assuming the new Texas map survives legal challenges, and Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin) is running for state Attorney General. The Houston-anchored 18th District is vacant due to the death of Rep. Sylvester Turner (D). The new redistricting map created three new open seats, Districts 32 and 33 centered in Dallas County and District 35, anchored in San Antonio.

Overall, the McCaul retirement announcement moves the national open House seat count to 32, including 18 Republican held seats, 11 Democratic, and the three new Texas map districts. Though the open list is expanding, the general election competition within these districts remains light. Still, only two opens, MI-10 (Rep. John James-R) and NE-2 (Rep. Don Bacon-R), can be ranked in the toss-up category. Competitive primaries, however, will occur in all congressional openings.

The open-seat list will soon recede to 29 once special elections are held in Arizona (7th District; Sept. 23), Tennessee (7th District; Oct. 7 special primary; Dec. 2 special general election), and Texas (18th District; Nov. 4 jungle primary; runoff to be scheduled after it becomes clear that no one receives majority support in the initial vote).

The new TX-10 District begins in western Travis County, where McCaul resides, and then moves through a strip in northern Travis where it connects to the rest of the district. Moving east, the new 10th annexes 10 whole counties and part of Warren County all located east of Waco and north of the Houston metro area. Included within this group is Brazos County, which houses Texas A&M University.

We can expect a crowded 10th District Republican primary with the winner claiming the seat in November of 2026. The new 10th is rated safely Republican. President Trump carried the region over Kamala Harris with a 60-38 percent margin according to calculations from The Down Ballot political blog statisticians.

The Texas candidate filing deadline is Dec. 8 for the March 3, 2026, Lone Star State primary. Should no candidate secure a majority in the initial election, which is likely for all of the state’s seven open congressional seats, a runoff contest between the top two finishers is scheduled for May 26, 2026.

Cornyn Takes Lead in New Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2025

Senate

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R)

For the first time in the 2026 election cycle, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) has posted a Republican primary polling lead versus his renomination opponent, Lone Star State Attorney General Ken Paxton.

The poll, from Texas Public Opinion Research as reported in a Politico Playbook release (Aug. 27-29; 843 registered Texas voters) posts the Senator to a six-point lead over Paxton, 32-26 percent with now 29 percent saying they are undecided.

With new revelations of another Paxton extramarital affair coming into the public domain, which would be the second time the Attorney General has been involved in such a scandal and now with a different woman, the new TPOR survey may be setting a new polling trend.

During Paxton’s 2023 bribery impeachment trial in the Texas Senate, a woman with whom he was having an affair was called upon to testify publicly. The Senate eventually acquitted Paxton, and he remains in office today. Since that time, the Attorney General’s wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton (R-Plano), filed for divorce. The woman who is the subject of this latest story has recently divorced, but the new affair was apparently underway while both were married to other individuals.

Throughout this year, Paxton has consistently led Sen. Cornyn in GOP primary polls. Until August, Paxton held the advantage in every published poll (13 from 13 different pollsters) by an average of just under 15 percentage points.

In the most recent five polls now including the Texas Public Opinion Research survey, the Paxton average edge had lessened to 1.6 points. Now, we see the latest publicly released survey putting Sen. Cornyn ahead beyond the polling margin of error, with the understanding that the study was conducted prior to the breaking scandal news becoming public.

Because Sen. Cornyn clearly has the momentum and a financial advantage (the June 30 Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports showed Cornyn holding $5.9 million in his campaign as compared to Paxton’s $2.5 million) the four-term incumbent now has an opportunity to capitalize upon this most recent polling trend and can possibly permanently reverse the race trajectory.

Action is underway for the Texas Democrats, too. While former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred has formally announced his candidacy for 2026, he no longer has an unimpeded path to the party nomination. State Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), who has become the darling of the Texas political media, is also an announced candidate. Earlier reports of former Congressman and ex-presidential, US Senate, and gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke (D) considering launching a new Senate candidacy have largely dissipated.

Upon Talarico’s formal announcement of candidacy on Sept. 9, a Public Policy Polling survey (Sept. 3-4; 510 likely Texas Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) was released showing the state Representative trailing Allred, 40-32 percent. While Allred remains the favorite for the party nomination, Talarico’s challenge must be regarded as serious, and we can now expect a competitive and expensive Democratic primary campaign to accompany what we are seeing on the Republican side.

The latest pro-Cornyn developments are also positive for Republican prospects in the general election. Polling shows Sen. Cornyn enjoying healthy leads in general election pairings, and most believe Paxton would be a weaker candidate.

A Paxton nomination would likely allow the Democratic nominee to have a legitimate chance of winning the statewide race in Texas, something Lone Star State Democrats have been unable to accomplish since 1994.

Rep. Morgan Luttrell to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 15, 2025

House

Two-term US Rep. Morgan Luttrell (R-Magnolia, Texas)

Just after a vacant seat is filled with newly elected Virginia Rep. James Walkinshaw (D-Fairfax) was sworn into office, another US House member has announced his retirement.

Two-term Texas Rep. Morgan Luttrell (R-Magnolia) announced his desire to return to the Lone Star State full-time and therefore will not seek a third term next year. In his retirement statement, Rep. Luttrell said, “I’m not walking away from service, and I’m certainly not walking away from the fight. I’m choosing a different path – one that allows me to stay rooted in Texas and focus on the people and places that matter most.”

The Luttrell surprise adds yet another open seat to the Texas 2026 election ballot, in a state that already has a great deal of political uncertainty. Both parties now are looking at a competitive US Senate primary, the new delegation redistricting map faces legal challenges, and several congressional incumbents, particularly on the Democratic side, are unsure of where, or even if, they will seek re-election.

In the Senate race, four-term incumbent John Cornyn faces a serious primary challenge from three-term Attorney General Ken Paxton in a race that is closing. Before, Sen. Cornyn was trailing badly. While it appeared that former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred would have an unencumbered path for the ’26 Democratic nomination, he must now face a serious primary challenge from Austin state Rep. James Talarico who is considered a major rising political star within the party.

On the congressional map, the delegation now sees six open seats from a total of 38 districts. Joining Rep. Luttrell in not seeking re-election is Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin) who is running for state Attorney General. Their moves create open 8th and 21st District races next year.

Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner passed away earlier in the year, and a special election will be held to replace him in November. Even this situation is not without confusion since the eventual special election winner will have to turn around and face veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) in a Democratic primary election just weeks after winning his or her own seat in a new 18th CD where Mr. Green already represents two-thirds of the constituency.

Additionally, the new congressional map creates three new districts, in the Dallas area, Houston, and the San Antonio region. This leads to the potential pairing of several incumbents in each place.

In all, we are likely to see competition in either the primary or general election in at least 11 of the state’s congressional districts, the US Senate primary and general election, in addition to several open statewide races and Gov. Greg Abbott (R) seeking re-election to a fourth term.

In Rep. Luttrell’s 8th CD, we can expect to see a very crowded and competitive Republican primary. The 8th had typically been anchored in Montgomery County, a populous municipal entity located just north of Houston’s Harris County. Under the current map, less than half of Montgomery County is in the 8th with over half of the constituency in western Harris County.

Under the new map, the new 8th maintains about two-thirds of the current constituency but moves deeper into Harris County and adds some further rural regions. In both cases, the 8th will be a safely Republican seat and Rep. Luttrell’s successor will be determined in the succeeding Republican primary election.

Morgan Luttrell was first elected to Congress in 2022, which was his first run for public office. The Luttrell name became famous due to Rep. Luttrell’s brother, Marcus Luttrell and his military heroics. The book and movie, Lone Survivor, is Marcus Luttrell’s personal story as the sole survivor of Operation Redwing and the desperate battle in the mountains that led, at the time, to the largest loss of life in Navy SEAL history. Rep. Morgan Luttrell, Marcus’s twin brother, also served as a Navy SEAL for seven years until being medically retired in 2014 for a severe traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury he sustained in a helicopter crash in 2009.

VCU Poll Questioned

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 12, 2025

Polling

The L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University just released a new statewide survey that may spur more questions than it answers.

The poll (Aug. 18-28; 804 Virginia adults; 764 registered Virginia voters; live interview) finds the Democratic candidates sweeping the Republicans in the three statewide offices of Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General. While such a result is certainly conceivable in what has become a relatively reliable blue state, the methodology involved may suggest a high inaccuracy factor.

While the ballot test figures seem to be reasonably in line with regard to the Governor’s race, the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General conclusions seem a bit out of balance.

In the ballot tests, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leads Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R), 48-39 percent, state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi (D-Richmond) tops John Reid (R) by a closer 44-40 percent split, and former state Delegate Jay Jones (D) moves ahead of incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares (R), 46-40 percent.

Republican Lieutenant Governor candidate Reid has largely been abandoned by his party’s leadership. Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) even tried to remove him from the ticket. Therefore, we see little in the way of campaign activity coming from this GOP nominee. Yet, he is the best performer among Republicans according to this poll.

The person who has typically come forward as the strongest, incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares, is down beyond the polling margin of error in this VCU study. Other polls have shown the race to be tight, and even with Democrat Jones ahead, but Miyares has been aggressive on the campaign trail and is making a major effort. Therefore, this ballot test result appears at least somewhat surprising.

The poll has methodological flaws. First, the sampling period is a full 10 days, which is much longer than the typical three-day polling period that is the industry standard for live interview surveys. The long sampling period tends to skew final results because the political situation can change in a relatively short number of days.

In a two-question series where respondents are asked with which political party do they identify, 34 percent said Democratic, 33 percent Republican, and 29 percent classified themselves as Independent. This break suggests a skew toward the Republicans because Democratic identification in Virginia, even though it is not a party registration state, should be more robust than leading Republicans by only one preference percentage point.

The follow up question sheds further light upon the party swings. Querying those who called themselves Independents, identified with a minor party, refused to answer the question, or simply said they didn’t know, the pollsters attempted to determine with which party they feel closest. Here, we see a much different split of 38 percent Democratic, 28 percent Republican, and 23 percent saying neither. This corrects the skew of the original question and brings the full electorate’s predisposition into a more realistic perspective.

The poll badly skews toward the older voter. While 29.2 percent of the Virginia population is over 55 years old, in the VCU poll this same age demographic accounts for 55.8 percent of the responses. Thus, despite the Republican candidates performing better with this age segment than their statewide numbers and seeing this demographic account for a strong majority of the responses suggests the weighting factor skewed significantly in favor of the Democratic candidates.

Another skew relates to the income segment. In the survey sample, 48 percent of those answering the income question are in the $100,000 and over range for household income. Approaching 28 percent of the universe responded with over $150,000 annual household income. Yet, the statistics indicate that only 32 percent of Virginia households are actually in this category. The upper income skew within this sample heavily favors the Democratic candidates.

With the election moving quickly into political prime time, we can expect to see a great many new polls released. Understanding the weighting methods of each will help determine a more accurate picture of where the electorate will head on November 4th.