Special Election Season Begins

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 8, 2025

Special Elections

As we know, the House has four vacant seats and the first in a series of rapid special elections will occur tomorrow.

In Virginia’s 11th District, the battle to replace late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) will largely be anticlimactic. The VA-11 seat is heavily Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 67.2D – 30.7R; Harris ’24: 65.7 – 31.4 percent), so an easy win for Fairfax County Supervisor and former Connolly chief of staff James Walkinshaw (D) is a prediction that all political prognosticators share.

The district is fully contained within Fairfax County and includes Fairfax City. A 2:1 Walkinshaw victory is expected over former FBI agent Stewart Whitson (R).

Two weeks after tomorrow’s Virginia special election, on Sept. 23, voters in the Tucson, Arizona area will participate in an election to replace the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D), who died in March. The clear favorite to succeed Grijalva is the special election’s Democratic nominee, Adelita Grijalva, the Congressman’s daughter who is a former Pima County Supervisor. Ms. Grijalva won the special Democratic primary in July with 61.5% of the vote over four intra-party opponents.

As in VA-11, Arizona’s 7th Congressional District is strongly Democratic. The DRA partisan lean is 65.5D – 32.3R. Kamala Harris carried this district, 60.5 – 38.4 percent, in a place where she lost the statewide vote. Just like VA-11, this district’s Democratic nominee is expected to win in a proportion consistent with the partisan lean calculation.

Once Walkinshaw and Ms. Grijalva are sworn into office, the partisan division will feature 219 Republicans, 214 Democrats with two remaining vacancies (1D; 1R).

On Oct. 7 in western Tennessee, we will see perhaps the most interesting special primary election to date, as multiple candidates from both parties are seriously vying for their party’s nomination. On the favored Republican side, 11 contenders are competing including three state Representatives and a Montgomery County Commissioner. For the Democrats, three Nashville area state Representatives and a businessman have qualified for the ballot.

Though the voter history suggests a comfortable Republican win will result in TN-7 (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 55.1R – 42.1D; President Trump: 60.4 – 38.1 percent), Democrats believe they have a chance to pull an upset. They cite increased Democratic performances around the country in special elections as the basis for their political optimism.

Tennessee features partisan special primaries, so no inter-party upset will occur on Oct. 7. The state does not include a runoff for party nominations, so it is likely we will see a pair of nominees coming forward who do not earn majority support within their own partisan electorate. The special general election is scheduled for Dec. 2.

The Volunteer State’s 7th District contains nine counties and parts of three others west of Nashville and stretches from Kentucky to Alabama on a north to south plane. The CD includes part of Nashville city in Davidson County along with the Clarksville, Parsons, and Waynesboro municipalities.

Incumbent Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) resigned the office earlier in the year to accept a position in the private sector. Before Green, Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R), now a gubernatorial candidate, represented the 7th CD for 16 years.

The final special election, scheduled for Nov. 4 in Houston, features 35 candidates (22 Democrats, 7 Republicans, and 6 minor party or Independent contenders). The candidate filing deadline was Sept. 3, so it remains to be seen how many of the 35 officially qualify for the ballot.

The TX-18 contest to replace the late Representative and former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) is certainly the most unique among the special elections.

Assuming a runoff will be required from the large field since no one is likely to secure majority support in the initial vote, Gov. Greg Abbott will then schedule the secondary election between the top two finishers when it becomes a mathematical certainty that no one received a majority. This means the runoff may not be held until early January.

While the new Texas map has been adopted into law, it must still pass the legal tests. If so, the eventual special election winner, and it will almost certainly be a Democratic candidate from the party’s safest Texas seat (DRA partisan lean: 73.6D – 24.4R), will immediately most likely be forced to face veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) to compete in the regular election Democratic primary for a full term.

The regular election Democratic primary will occur in a newly configured 18th District on March 3rd that only contains 26 percent of the current 18th and 65 percent of Rep. Green’s 9th CD.

The new redistricting plan has certainly made life difficult for whoever wins the 18th District special election. The eventual winner having a short tenure in Congress appears likely and will prove a side effect of the 2025 Texas redistricting effort.

Sen. Padilla for Governor?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 5, 2025

Governor

California Sen. Alex Padilla (D) | Facebook photo

During recent interviews, California Sen. Alex Padilla (D) has confirmed that he is considering entering the 2026 open Governor’s race. If he does, that contest will fundamentally change.

While the Senator says he will not decide whether to run until the special redistricting election concludes in November, the clues we will see between now and then will reveal his ultimate intention. The fact that he is publicly not denying contemplating such a move suggests that he is leaning toward launching his candidacy.

Though only 52 years old, Sen. Padilla has already enjoyed a long California political career.

Elected to the Los Angeles City Council at the age of 26, he became Council President just two years later. After serving seven years on the City Council, Padilla was elected to the state Senate. He would easily win re-election to a second four-year term (at the time, state Senators were limited to two terms) and then ran statewide in 2014 for California Secretary of State and was elected.

Padilla would win re-election to his statewide position in 2018, and then Gov. Gavin Newsom appointed him to the US Senate replacing Kamala Harris when she resigned to become Vice President. He won election to a full US Senate term in 2022.

With experience winning statewide elections – in his two victories as Secretary of State and one for US Senate, Padilla averaged 59.7 percent of the vote – Sen. Padilla would certainly have an advantage over the rest of the large field that features 69 announced candidates for the all-party jungle primary. Within this large group that generally features minor candidates, only two have won a statewide election.

Before becoming US Health and Human Services Secretary in the Biden Administration, Xavier Becerra, who spent 24 years in the US House, was elected state Attorney General after then-Gov. Jerry Brown (D) appointed him to fill then-AG Kamala Harris’ vacancy when she was elected to the US Senate. San Francisco’s Betty Yee, a former Vice Chair of the California Democratic Party, was twice elected State Controller.

The other candidates of note are the early polling leader, former Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-Orange County), state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego), and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D). The two most prominent Republicans are Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Fox News host and policy analyst Steve Hilton.

While former Rep. Porter has led in the two reputable August statewide polls, one from Emerson College and the other the University of California at Berkeley, she has failed to reach even 20 percent of the preference vote. Adding a candidate of Sen. Padilla’s stature would very likely have a drastic impact on future polls.

As we know, Gov. Newsom is ineligible to seek a third term. Should Sen. Padilla run for Governor in 2026, he would be the fourth US Senator to do so, joining Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville, Michael Bennet of Colorado, and Tennessee’s Marsha Blackburn.

Adding Padilla to this list portends that three of the four, with Sen. Tuberville being the exception, are not risking their position to run for Governor. This also means, if all prove victorious and each would be favored, the three enjoying free rides would then be able to appoint their own US Senate successor.

Iowa Rep. Hinson Declares
Her Candidacy for Senate

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 4, 2025

Senate

Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) / Facebook photo

On the heels of Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) announcing her retirement earlier this week, three-term US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) quickly declared her candidacy for the now open Iowa Senate seat.

Rep. Hinson will be a strong statewide candidate. In the House since 2021, a state Representative for two terms, and a Cedar Rapids ABC affiliate news anchor before running for office, Congresswoman Hinson has both the political and media experience necessary to be a strong candidate. Though the Republicans are losing an incumbent on the 2026 statewide ballot, Rep. Hinson will give the party everything they need to hold the open Senate seat.

The Democratic field is expected to remain constant. It features state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs), Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, and local Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage. The open Governor’s race has attracted the state’s lone statewide Democratic officeholder, State Auditor Rob Sand.

Although Rep. Hinson’s 2nd Congressional District being in an open situation leaves competitive potential. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 51.4R – 45.3D partisan lean. President Trump carried the IA-2 district with a 54-44 percent victory margin over Kamala Harris. In 2020, Hinson defeated one-term Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) who had unseated then-Rep. Rod Blum (R) in 2018.

Iowa is one of 31 states that register voters with partisan affiliation. In the 2nd District, 450,332 individuals are actively registered to vote. A total of 36.1 percent affiliate as Republican, 33.4 percent as No Party, 29.8 percent Democratic, and 0.7 percent as “Other.”

Therefore, the statistics suggest that this northeastern Iowa district leans Republican but, as in 2018 when Finkenauer won, the seat has flip potential in a strong Democratic year.

Expect to see political musical chairs begin among state legislators who represent districts that fall within the 2nd CD boundaries. It is likely we will see several current or former lawmakers come forward. One person already reportedly making fundraising calls and informing potential supporters that he is going to run is Trump Administration HUD official Joe Mitchell, a former state Senator.

Turning to the Democratic side, four individuals are already active candidates including state Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque). The other candidates are ex-nursing college dean and retired Army Lt. Col. Kathy Dolter, 2020 local office nominee Don Primus, and pastor and non-profit organization founder Clint Twedt-Ball. It is probable we will soon see other Democrats also come to the forefront.

The 2nd District lies in Iowa’s northeast sector under the state’s quadrant congressional redistricting plan. It borders the Mississippi River and Illinois on the east and Minnesota to the north.

Under the rather unique plan, incumbents’ residences are not considered when drawing maps, and all counties are kept whole within each individual CD. Thus, the 2nd District houses 13 complete counties with four significant population centers. In order of size from large to small, the inhabitant clusters are the cities of Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, Dubuque, and Mason City.

Counting IA-2, a total of 31 seats are now in the open category (15R, 12D, with three new as a result of Texas redistricting), and Rep. Hinson becomes the tenth House member to run for the Senate in the current election cycle. Once the four special elections to fill vacant seats conclude beginning next week and running through early next year, the open seat will at least temporarily drop to 27.

Rep. Jerrold Nadler to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 3, 2025

House

Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-New York City) | Facebook photo

The open seat count in the US House rose to 30 yesterday, at least temporarily, as 17-term Empire State Congressman Jerrold Nadler (D-New York City) announced that he will not seek re-election next year.

The decision ends a long New York political career that featured Nadler holding an elected office consecutively since the beginning of 1977 when adding his combined time in Congress and the New York State Assembly.

In an interview with the New York Times, Rep. Nadler indicated that the generation gap was an issue in making his retirement decision. He said, “[w]atching the Biden thing really said something about the necessity for generational change in the party, and I think I want to respect that…” Nadler will be 79 years old when the 2026 election is held.

Rep. Nadler’s 12th Congressional District lies fully within the Borough of Manhattan and contains most of Central Park. It stretches from the island’s western border at the Hudson River across Manhattan to the East River. NY-12 is the smallest area district in the country.

The Nadler departure is likely to leave a very crowded Democratic primary in his wake. With a partisan lean of 83.9D – 13.7R (Dave’s Redistricting App), the Nadler successor will be the eventual Democratic nominee.

Kamala Harris defeated President Trump in the 12th District, 81-17 percent, which was down from President Biden’s 85-14 percent win in 2020. We can expect several state legislators and New York City Councilmembers to enter the race.

Another possible candidate is former NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, a previous Manhattan Borough President and ex-state Assemblyman. Stringer finished fifth in the 2025 mayoral primary, and while he has had success in winning past New York City elections, his poor electoral showing in the most recent contest isn’t likely to frighten other prospective candidates.

Within the national open seat count, 15 are Republican-held districts as opposed to 12 from the Democratic side. The remaining three are new seats created through the Texas redistricting process. Nadler is the only New York member currently not seeking re-election. Among the 30 opens, only two — MI-10 (Rep. John James-R) and NE-2 (Rep. Don Bacon-R) — can legitimately be considered as toss-up campaigns heading into the 2026 elections.

Four of the opens will be filled in upcoming special elections. Pertaining to the vacating House members, nine are running for the Senate, eight for Governor of their respective state, and one, Texas Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin), entered the race for state Attorney General. Rep. Nadler becomes the fifth member opting to retire from elective politics.

The open-seat list will recede next Tuesday when the VA-11 special election is held to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D). Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw, a former Connolly chief of staff, is the prohibitive favorite to defeat Republican Stewart Whitson, a former FBI agent.

Two weeks later, on Sept. 23, the AZ-7 special election will be conducted to replace the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D). Former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D), the deceased Congressman’s daughter, is the big favorite to win the vacated seat.

Shortly thereafter on Oct. 7, both Republicans and Democrats will choose special election nominees from crowded fields in western Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. The eventual party nominees will advance to a Dec. 2 special general election. The winner will replace resigned Rep. Mark Green (R), who left the House to accept a position in the private sector.

The final special election is scheduled concurrently with the municipal election day, Nov. 4, and will occur in Houston’s 18th Congressional District. A large field is competing for the safely Democratic seat, but the eventual winner will immediately find him or herself in a paired incumbent battle with Rep. Al Green (D-Houston), under the newly enacted Texas redistricting map, in an early March 3 primary election.

Another Senate Opening?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 2, 2025

Senate

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA)

Media rumors had been routinely circulating through most of this year saying that Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) was contemplating retirement, and apparently such a decision is about to be confirmed.

According to printed Iowa sources, it is expected that Sen. Ernst will imminently announce her retirement thus creating an eighth Senate open seat for the 2026 campaign.

Should Sen. Ernst pass on running for a third term as now firmly predicted, the Republicans would still be in strong position to hold the open seat. Waiting in the wings with the chance to become a consensus GOP candidate is three-term Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) who has convincingly made what should be a politically marginal northeast Iowa 2nd District into a safe domain.

Hinson, a former news anchor for a Cedar Rapids television station, came to Congress in the 2020 election when she unseated first-term Democratic Rep. Abby Finkenauer in the pre-redistricting 1st CD. She has since averaged 55.6 percent of the vote in her two re-elections. In the 2022 race, she defeated a strong Democratic candidate, then-state Sen. Liz Mathis, who was also a former Cedar Rapids news anchor, with 54.1 percent of the vote.

The Democratic Senate field features state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs), Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, and local Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage. Likely the strongest potential Democrat and the party’s lone statewide officeholder, State Auditor Rob Sand, is already in the open Governor’s race.

The absence of Rep. Hinson in her 2nd CD would make the succeeding House race much more interesting. Already, four Democrats had announced their candidacy against Rep. Hinson including state Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque). A new Republican nominee would have some ground to make up and likely find themselves in a competitive toss-up general election race.

Of the eight open Senate races, both parties must defend four seats. It appears Democrats will have little trouble in holding Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin’s seat, though an expensive and hard fought primary is expected before the March 17 primary election.

The eventual Democratic nominee in Minnesota, and consensus candidate Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) from New Hampshire, have the inside track to holding their respective open seats to succeed retiring Sens. Tina Smith (D-MN) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH).

The Michigan open race to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D), will be hard fought and likely one of two premier national Senate races. GOP former Rep. Mike Rogers is becoming a consensus Republican candidate. The Democrats will have to maneuver through a competitive primary that won’t be decided until August among Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.

The open North Carolina campaign will be just as tough as Michigan’s, although in this case the general election participants are already known: former Governor Roy Cooper for the Democrats and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley.

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) is risking his seat to enter his state’s open Governor’s race, a gambit that appears to be a safe bet. In his wake, Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) and Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) will be the principal contenders in the open Senate contest with the primary victor becoming the prohibitive general election favorite.

Without Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear (D) in the open Kentucky Senate race, it appears a competitive Republican primary will determine outgoing former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R) successor. The leading contenders are former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron, Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington), and self-funding businessman Nate Morris.

Two other Senators are running for Governor – Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) – and possibly California’s Alex Padilla (D) joining them, but the trio are not risking their seats. All would be favored to win open Governor’s races, meaning each would appoint their own successors after assuming their new office.

Added to the eight open seat races portends a large number of freshman Senators being sworn into office at the beginning of 2027.

Utah Joins Redistricting Wars

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 29, 2025

Redistricting

Utah Congressional Districts (click on image to go to interactive map)

A new court decision has thrust another state to the forefront of the mid-decade redistricting battle that may be developing in as many as 11 states.

A Utah judge early this week issued a ruling that strikes down the state’s 4R-0D congressional map, saying the legislature did not have the right to usurp the citizens’ redistricting commission that voters approved via ballot proposition in 2018. The commission members crafted a congressional map in 2021 that the state legislature rejected and replaced with the current plan.

The ruling is curious in that the judge stated the Utah Constitution makes a vote of the people equal to that of a legislative action. Therefore, District Court Judge Dianna Gibson ruled that the legislature did not have the authority to change the Commission map but did not explain why the people’s vote then trumps legislative power if both are equal. Republicans will appeal to the State Supreme Court, though the high court previously allowed the original lawsuit to continue that resulted in Judge Gibson’s ruling.

The Commission map would likely cost the Republicans one seat since it created a Salt Lake City-anchored district that would presumably elect a Democrat. Like many redistricting battles, this one, too, has the potential of making its way to the US Supreme Court for a final decision.

Currently before the federal high court remains the Louisiana racial redistricting case. A ruling was expected before the end of June, but the justices instead postponed their decision and ordered additional oral arguments, now scheduled for Oct. 15. The court’s ultimate ruling could mean a Louisiana redraw before the 2026 election. If so, Alabama could also see a redraw since their redistricting situation is virtually identical to that of Louisiana.

The just-enacted Texas map already faces a racial gerrymandering lawsuit, this in an El Paso federal court. The Louisiana ruling could affect the new Texas map since the lawsuit grounds involve an alleged violation of the Voting Rights Act.

When the Ohio legislature returns to session in September after the summer break, a new congressional map will be drawn. Since the current plan, adopted in 2021, failed to pass the legislature with at least a three-fifths vote in each chamber, the map could only stand for two elections. Therefore, state law demands a new plan be crafted for the 2026 election and beyond.

Published reports indicate that redistricting is also being considered in Florida, Indiana, Maryland, Missouri, and New York. The referendum in California to usurp the citizens’ commission map and replace it with a published alternative will go to the voters in a Nov. 4 special election.

The Florida House Speaker has assembled a new redistricting committee, and Gov. Ron DeSantis indicates he favors attempting to draw a new map. Some believe the already strong Republican Florida map could yield two more seats.

Talks are underway in Indiana about undertaking redistricting. The GOP target here would be the state’s 1st District that Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-Highland/Gary) represents. In the past two elections, the Congressman recorded a pair of 53 percent victories.

Talk surfaced in Maryland, largely stemming from Gov. Wes Moore (D), that this state could attempt to eliminate the lone Republican district, but nothing concrete toward that end has yet happened.

Republicans are also making progress toward gaining the Kansas City-area district of Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D); moving forward in this situation appears likely.

Finally, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) also made public statements about redistricting retribution. Here too, however, a citizens’ commission is involved in the process. In 2021, even a Democratic court rejected the Democratic legislature’s map after the members found a way to usurp the commission plan. In the legislature’s map, the Republicans would have been relegated to four of 26 seats, which the court rejected.

While the Democrats could gain further seats in New York, the process of changing the current map may be too complicated to do so before the 2026 election.

As one can see, redistricting is a complex issue, and predicting what may happen next in any state’s process is always a difficult proposition.

Once Again, Ernst Polling Is Close

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025

Senate

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA)

In her two previous victorious Iowa US Senate races, Republican Joni Ernst defied the aggregate polling universe, and a new Public Policy Polling survey of the 2026 campaign suggests we may see this familiar pattern repeat.

As a whole in both 2014 and 2020, the pollster universe underestimated Ernst’s political strength and miscast her campaigns as being too close to call when they weren’t.

In Sen. Ernst’s first statewide election, running from her position as a state Senator, she defeated then-US Rep. Bruce Braley (D) by more than eight percentage points, or a full six points above her average polling lead according to the Real Clear Politics Polling Archives.

In her re-election bid from five years ago against Des Moines businesswoman Theresa Greenfield, Sen. Ernst headed into Election Day with just over a one point average edge, again according to the RCP Polling Archives, yet won with close to a seven-point cushion.

The new PPP Iowa poll (Aug. 18-19; 572 registered Iowa voters; live interview and text) finds Sen. Ernst with only toss-up leads over a series of largely unknown, from a statewide perspective, Democratic candidates.

According to the Public Policy Polling results, Sen. Ernst would lead state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), only 43-42 percent; she tops Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, 45-42 percent; and posts a pair of 45-41 percent advantages over local Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs).

In reviewing the Polling Archives from her two previous statewide races, we saw Sen. Ernst beginning well behind.

In 2014, against Braley, Sen. Ernst trailed in the first published poll – in July of 2013 and again according to PPP – by a 13 percentage point margin, 45-33. Over the course of the 2014 campaign, 45 statewide surveys were publicly released from 14 different pollsters.

Within the 45 poll universe, Sen. Ernst led in 19, but none among the first nine released surveys (down an average of 7.1 points). In the campaign’s closing stage, her average percentage lead was 2.3 from the six polls released during the Oct. 27 to Nov. 3 period, yet her actual victory margin over Braley was 8.5 percent.

In 2020, this time as the incumbent seeking her first re-election, we saw a similar pattern unfold. In the ’20 race, the Real Clear Polling Archives reports a total of 19 Iowa Senate race polls being released from nine different polling organizations beginning in early April of the election year.

The first released poll again came from PPP with a survey ending on May 1, 2020. It projected Sen. Ernst as having a 43-42 percent edge over Greenfield, the same percentage this new 2025 poll finds her leading opposite state Sen. Wahls.

Within the 19-poll universe that the RCP Polling Archives tracked in the 2020 campaign, Sen. Ernst led in only seven of the polls and trailed by an average of just under three percentage points through the period ending Oct. 24 (a total of 14 released polls). In the final five polls, during the Oct. 27 through Nov. 2 period, Sen. Ernst built an average polling point lead of only 1.4 according to the Archives’ calculations but won the race on Nov. 3 by 6.6 percent.

We saw similar polling underestimates in President Trump’s three Iowa campaigns. In 2016, again with data from the Polling Archives, 26 presidential polls were conducted in the Hawkeye State from Aug. 9, 2015 through Nov. 4, 2016. Within the 26-poll universe, Hillary Clinton led in 10 with four ties. Looking at the final three polls from Nov. 1 through Nov. 4, Trump led in two with an average three-poll lead of three percentage points. On Nov. 8, 2016, he carried Iowa with a 9.5 percent margin spread.

In 2020, though Trump would lose the national election, he again carried Iowa with a greater than predicted margin. In this election, 27 polls were conducted from the period of Feb. 2, 2020 through Nov. 2. The polling universe was better in this election, as they forecast Trump to be leading Joe Biden in 15 of the polls with three ties. In the final five polls from Oct. 27 through Nov. 2, he led in four of the surveys with an average edge of two percentage points. Again, his final margin on Nov. 3 was much larger: 8.5 points.

In 2024, Iowa polling became a point of national contention as the state’s pollster deemed most accurate, Selzer & Company, projected a Kamala Harris lead of three percentage points in a poll concluded on Oct. 31.

President Trump would carry the state on Nov. 5 by a 13.2 percent margin, meaning the Selzer miss was a whopping 16-plus points.

Only three presidential polls were released during the closing days of the Iowa 2024 cycle. The other two pollsters, Emerson College and Insider Advantage, were much closer to the final result (Trump plus-10 and plus-6, respectively), but even they underestimated the Republican strength.

While the early 2025 Public Policy Polling survey again depicts Sen. Ernst in a potentially close race, this is nothing new for her Iowa Senate campaigns. If polling history is any indication, the end result will likely tell a much different story.