By Jim Ellis
April 6, 2016 — The closing polls consistently found a tightening of both the Badger State Republican and Democratic races, but they were wrong. The data from Marquette University Law School and Fox News that revealed a widening spread, and reported more than a week ago, proved more accurate.
Last night, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) easily won the Wisconsin primary and took 36 of the 42 Republican delegates in the Winner-Take-All by congressional district format. His popular vote margin was 48-35-14 percent over Donald Trump and Gov. John Kasich (R-OH). Trump won CDs 3 and 7, located in the state’s western sector, giving him six delegates. Gov. Kasich, despite being favored in Madison-anchored District 2, failed to win any delegate votes.
The result was a major setback for Trump’s quest for a first-ballot victory. Early national delegate projections suggested the Republican front-runner needed a Wisconsin victory to secure the nomination on the first convention roll call.
A total of 769 delegate votes remain in the 16 Republican states yet to vote. To clinch a first-ballot victory under the most favorable Trump projection, he would need to commit 62 percent of the outstanding delegates. So far, when adding all of the announced unbound delegates (who have the ability to change their vote) to the aggregate apportionment total, Trump has won 44.6 percent of the 1,703 delegates. It is important to remember that 332 delegates are committed to other candidates and whether they will be released before the convention remains undetermined.
On the Democratic side, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT) won a 56-43 percent popular vote victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, but when adding announced Super Delegate votes, the Wisconsin apportionment favored him only 45-40 with 11 votes remaining uncommitted. Sanders has now won 16 primaries and caucuses, as compared to Clinton’s 20. Despite the senator’s blowout win last night and his sixth consecutive victory, Clinton still achieved her delegate quota goal and remains on track to win the party nomination. In the remaining 21 Democratic states and territories, Clinton needs to claim only 31 percent of the available delegates to clinch national victory.
Below are the latest unofficial delegate results:
|CANDIDATE||ESTIMATED DELEGATE COUNT|
|Marco Rubio (out)||173|
|Needed to win: 1,237||Remaining: 769|
|CANDIDATE||REGULAR DELEGATES||SUPER DELEGATES|
|Martin O’Malley (out)||1|
Total Clinton: 1,774
Total Sanders: 1,117
Needed to win: 2,383
Delegate Count Source: Unofficial — The Green Papers website (for both parties)
The Democratic totals include some Super Delegates who have announced their support for a candidate even though their states have not yet voted.