Category Archives: Polling

New York Poll: Stefanik Over Hochul

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 31, 2025

Governor

Rep. Elise Stefanik / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

Unofficial 2026 New York gubernatorial candidate Elise Stefanik, the North Country (NY-21) Republican Congresswoman, has taken a small lead over Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) according to a Manhattan Institute survey. The poll (Oct. 22-26; 900 likely New York voters; live interview & text) finds Stefanik carrying a 43-42 percent edge over the Governor who is seeking a second full four-year term.

The margin is more significant than a simple one-point lead, however. The polling universe is over-sampled toward New York City. Of the 900 people in the sampling pool, only 300 are outside of New York City. The fact that Stefanik is even close, let alone virtually even with the Governor, when two-thirds of the polling sample comes from a population universe where only 11 percent are registered as Republicans is surprising to say the least.

The result is even more unexpected when the most recently released gubernatorial polls, from GrayHouse Polling (Sept. 20-26; 900 registered New York voters) and Siena College (Sept. 8-10; 802 registered New York voters) projected Gov. Hochul leading by five points (48-43 percent) and a whopping 25 points (52-27 percent), respectively.

It is highly unusual to see a poll such as the Manhattan Institute’s that would split their polling sample in a manner where two-thirds of the respondents are located in one area when such a region comprises only 46 percent of the state population.

To counter for the oversample, the Manhattan pollsters said they have weighted the responses to reflect the proper population dispersion geographically and demographically.

While the sample is unusual, the poll’s main objective was to survey the current NYC Mayor’s race. Relating to the local ballot test question, asked only of the New York City respondents, state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (D) leads former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (I) and Republican Curtis Sliwa, 43-28-19 percent.

The mayoral ballot test does, to an extent, help explain Stefanik’s vastly improved standing. While Assemblyman Mamdani leads the race and is likely to win the mayoral position with a plurality, the majority of the polling respondents, and likely the actual voters culminating on the Nov. 4 Election Day, appear to be voting for a different candidate.

With Gov. Hochul now publicly endorsing the self-proclaimed socialist Mamdani, it is not as surprising that the non-Mamdani voters might look beyond the incumbent in the next Governor’s race.

With Stefanik closing a gap of at least five percentage points, and arguably more in a short period (the 25-point lead that Siena College found in early September, however, is likely an outlier at least in the context of the present time), suggests something major has occurred to sway opinions.

It is reasonable to believe that the negative public talk and coverage describing how Mamdani’s policies would affect the New York City citizenry has certainly contributed to the political wind beginning to blow in Congresswoman Stefanik’s favor.

A Mamdani election victory will be transformational, but the negatives could conceivably outweigh the positives if the critics’ analyses prove accurate. Furthermore, the effects of what will be newly implemented policies involving the economy, housing, and policing, will be at least somewhat evident before voters again go to the polls in November 2026 to choose a Governor.

Considering this new gubernatorial election polling data, and assuming the Stefanik organization internal surveys are in sync with the public results, it is probable that we will see an official gubernatorial campaign announcement coming from the North Country Congresswoman after the mayoral election and before the end of the year.

With the Mamdani candidacy igniting new political fires for both liberals and conservatives, the 2026 New York Governor’s race will assume a much different posture, and one sure to have national political implications.

New Jersey Getting Closer

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 30, 2025

Governor

(L-R) New Jersey gubernatorial candidates Jack Ciattarelli (R) and Mikie Sherrill (D)

With Garden State early voting just getting underway in earnest, the three latest publicly released New Jersey Governor polls are all showing a tightening contest between Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) and Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli.

The three polls were conducted between the Oct. 23-27 period from a trio of individual survey research entities. The margin between the two candidates ranged from one to four percentage points. While the margin has closed, Rep. Sherrill continues to post a lead in virtually every survey.

The most recent study, from Quantus Insights (Oct. 26-27; 1,380 likely New Jersey voters), sees the Sherrill lead at 49-46 percent. The co/efficient firm (Oct. 23-27; 995 likely New Jersey voters) projects an even closer 48-47 percent. Within the same time realm, A2 Insights (Oct. 24-26; 812 likely New Jersey voters) shows the four-point spread for Sherrill at 51-47 percent.

These latest three studies show a significant closing of the race when compared with the three surveys released days before. Each of those found Sherrill holding a much more substantial lead.

The previous set of three polls were conducted during the Oct. 3-20 period, though the final two were fully sampled between Oct. 16-20. The Rutgers-Eagleton poll (Oct. 3-17; 795 likely New Jersey voters) featured a long sampling period that consumed the predominant portion of the sampling time listed above. The R-E results found Sherrill topping Ciattarelli, 50-45 percent.

The other two polls were from Concord Public Opinion Partners (Oct. 16-18; 605 likely New Jersey voters) and GQR Research, the latter formerly known as Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research but now has two new principal partners (Oct. 15-20; 1,000 likely New Jersey voters). While Concord saw a nine-point Sherrill advantage at 49-40 percent, GQR projected an even wider Sherrill margin at 52-40 percent.

Therefore, among the six polls commissioned throughout the preponderance of October’s days, we see a net six-point swing in Ciattarelli’s favor. This suggests the important closing momentum may be turning in his direction.

Additionally, keep in mind that the polling history involving political campaigns with Ciattarelli on the ballot has woefully underestimated his electoral strength. In his 2021 challenge to Gov. Phil Murphy (D), polling pegged Ciattarelli posting an average of approximately 43 percent support. His actual vote total was 48.0 percent.

The 2025 Republican primary election provided even more stark evidence of under-assessing a candidate’s strength. While the polls leading up to the June primary election found Ciattarelli with high-water final polling marks of 54, 50, and 44 percent within the five-candidate primary election field, Ciattarelli’s actual percentage was 67.8, and far beyond what pollsters cumulatively predicted.

Therefore, if past polling history is any indication of what may happen in Tuesday’s final result, we could see a very close finish or even a Ciattarelli upset.

Despite New Jersey being a reliably Democratic state in federal and national elections, a single party has not won three consecutive gubernatorial elections since a pair of Republican Governors together served 10 consecutive years in office from 1944-1954.

Should Sherrill win next week, giving the Democrats three consecutive terms counting outgoing Gov. Murphy’s two election wins, she will have broken the alternating streak that has remained intact for 71 years.

Surprising Maine Polling

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 27, 2025

Senate

Graham Platner

A just released University of New Hampshire’s Pine Tree State Poll (Oct. 16-21; 1,094 Maine residents; 1,015 likely Maine voters; 510 likely Maine Democratic primary voters; online) delivers some unexpected ballot test results in two key Maine races.

The biggest surprise is how badly Gov. Janet Mills fares in a Democratic gubernatorial primary. Gov. Mills recently announced for Senate after being the top recruit prospect for the national Democratic leadership. Yet, in this UNH poll, she trails businessman Graham Platner by a whopping 58-24 percent clip.

Platner is the choice of the party’s Bernie Sanders wing and carries the Vermont Senator’s endorsement. The poll was conducted, however, before damaging information came to light against Platner including the presence of a skull and crossbones tattoo on his chest, which has been tied to Nazi police, and past disparaging remarks made about key Democratic constituencies. Chances are good that the next released Maine survey will show Platner substantially falling.

Irrespective of Platner’s current standing, Gov. Mills performs poorly against a first-time candidate within her own party. While the Governor records a favorable personal approval index (65:16 favorable to unfavorable), she managed to post only a 24 percent vote preference on the related ballot test before the same Democratic sampling universe. This is largely due to her poor job approval rating of 43:55 percent favorable to unfavorable.

The pollsters apparently did not test the general election featuring Sen. Susan Collins (R) individually against the Democrats, but the fact that Gov. Mills fares this poorly in her own primary suggests her standing statewide would be below par.

House

The second surprise comes in the state’s 2nd Congressional District where Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is facing a challenge from former two-term Gov. Paul LePage (R).

While other polls have found the two locked in a virtual dead heat, the UNH data sees LePage pulling five points ahead of the four-term incumbent, 49-44 percent, which is beyond the stated polling margin of error for this survey (plus or minus 3.1 percent).

From the LePage perspective, the ballot test result should not be considered an unusually positive outlier. In his three statewide races – 2 victories and 1 defeat, the latter at the hands of Gov. Mills in 2022 – LePage carried the 2nd District. Additionally, ME-2 is the most Republican district in the country where the electorate sends a Democrat to the US House.

What is troubling for Rep. Golden and his allies are the responses to the re-elect questions. When asked if Rep. Golden deserves to be re-elected, only 26 percent answered affirmatively while 57 percent said no.

Most of the negative number comes from Republicans, 75 percent of whom said Rep. Golden does not deserve re-election. Such is to be expected, however, in this age of political polarization. A major negative for the Golden camp, however, is that 66 percent of Independents and more than a third (36 percent) of Democrats also say the Congressman “doesn’t deserve re-election.”

The fundraising totals favor Rep. Golden, however. The Congressman has raised over $2.3 million for his 2026 campaign and holds just under $1.7 million cash-on-hand. LePage has attracted $917,000 for the campaign and holds less than half of Golden’s treasury figure at $716,000.

The ME-2 race will be a national campaign and one of the Republicans’ top conversion opportunities. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that LePage will correct the resource imbalance as compared to Rep. Golden’s financial totals either through enhanced national fundraising or with non-connected outside groups coming into the northern Maine district to aid the former Governor’s congressional efforts.

It is clear that both the Maine Senate and 2nd District House campaigns will draw a great deal of national attention during 2026 political prime time. Both eventual winners will be significant players in determining which party will control the legislative power levers in the 120th Congress.

Gov. Mills Announces … Again

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2025

Senate

Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) | Facebook photo

Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D), after a premature social media Senate announcement message over the weekend was pulled back, yesterday formally declared her intention to challenge veteran Sen. Susan Collins (R). The Governor was Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s top choice to challenge Sen. Collins who overcame a massive attack campaign in 2020 to secure a fifth term.

Sen. Collins was first elected in 1996 and has announced plans to run again for a sixth term next year. Gov. Mills was elected in 2018, re-elected four years later, and is ineligible to seek a third term under the state’s election system.

In 2020, the Democrats and their candidate, then-state House Speaker Sara Gideon, spent over $60 million against Sen. Collins in a state of just over a million people. In fact, Gideon had so much money that her campaign coffers still possessed more than $9 million after the election. Under criticism from Democrats because she had so much money left over, the party nominee explained “there was simply nothing left to buy” as hundreds of thousands of dollars flowed into her campaign coffers from all over the country during the 2020 campaign’s last week.

Though every poll but one showed Gideon winning, Sen. Collins went on to score what had to be considered an upset win despite her long-term incumbency with a 50-42 percent victory margin.

Gov. Mills averaged 53.3 percent of the vote in her two victorious gubernatorial elections, which includes her 55.7 – 42.4 percent re-election victory over former two-term Republican Governor Paul LePage. The ex-state chief executive is now running for the US House in the state’s northern district. Before serving as Governor, Mills was a state legislative-appointed Attorney General, a state legislator, and a former local county district attorney.

While Sen. Collins’ age (she will be 73 at the time of the next election) might be an issue in other states as candidates prepare for the 2026 midterm elections, it will not be a factor in the Maine Senate race. Gov. Mills herself will be 78 years old at the time of the November 2026 election.

Gov. Mills began her campaign with the typical attacks levied against Republicans, saying they are cutting Medicaid so the wealthiest can have tax breaks, and “threatening democracy.” The Governor, however, is saddled with at least two major negatives of her own that will be front and center in the Collins campaign arsenal, added to a national GOP attack theme.

As we remember, Gov. Mills attracted national attention by defying President Trump over the “men in women’s sports” issue. Even in Maine, the Mills position favoring transgenders participating in women’s sports polls negatively. She also promoted an energy transmission issue that her opponents said favored Massachusetts to Maine’s detriment. The associated ballot initiative she supported was subsequently soundly defeated.

Today, Maine’s political campaigns are clearly defined. The state has two congressional districts, which are politically opposite. The southern 1st District that includes the state’s largest metropolitan area of Portland, is heavily Democratic. The northern 2nd District, which begins in the Lewiston-Auburn area and moves all the way to Canada, features the most Republican electorate in the country that sends a Democrat to the House.

Statewide, Democrats win by securing a larger majority in the 1st District than Republicans record in the 2nd. Sen. Collins habitually wins by running up her positive vote total in the 2nd District and reducing her margin of defeat in the 1st. As the political polarization grows nationally and in Maine, the 1st becomes more Democratic and the 2nd more Republican.

With former Gov. LePage running unopposed for the GOP congressional nomination in District 2, thus uniting the party behind his candidacy, Republican turnout in the general election could be spurred.

In LePage’s three gubernatorial elections, including his landslide loss to Mills, he carried the 2nd District, and he currently is the most prolific fundraiser among all Republican congressional challengers. His race against four-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) promises to be close and could arguably be the Republicans’ best national US House conversion opportunity.

While the Democrats are successful in recruiting their top Maine Senate prospect, we can expect another brutal campaign to begin in the Pine Tree State. Heading into the election year, the Maine Senate campaign must be rated as a toss-up. Expect the polling to favor Mills, as it consistently favored the Democratic nominee in 2020, but history shows that the Republican turnout typically well exceeds projected polling results.

WEEKLY POLITICAL WRAP-UP:
PERIOD ENDING Oct. 10, 2025

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 13, 2025

Senate

Kentucky Senate challenger Amy McGrath (D)

Kentucky — Marine Corps veteran Amy McGrath, who proved her fundraising prowess in two unsuccessful political races, announced that she will enter the 2026 Kentucky US Senate race. Her previous losses were to Congressman Andy Barr, who may well again be her opponent in next year’s Senate general election, and Sen. Mitch McConnell.

According to The Down Ballot political blog reporters, McGrath raised over $94 million for her two campaigns. She lost a close race to Rep. Barr, and in a landslide to Sen. McConnell.

Louisiana — Sen. Bill Cassidy has drawn another Republican primary opponent. St. Tammany Parish Councilwoman Kathy Seiden announced last week that she will join the growing group of Cassidy primary opponents. In the race are State Treasurer and former US Congressman John Fleming, state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia), and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta. Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) continues to dangle the possibility of her entering the race. If she decides not to become a candidate, state Rep. Julie Emerson (R-Carencro), chair of the Louisiana House Ways & Means Committee, is likely to enter.

Late last year, the legislature and Governor changed Louisiana’s election system. Instead of a jungle primary for federal races, the state returns to a partisan primary format. Therefore, the new primaries are scheduled for April 18. If no candidate secures majority support in the initial election, a runoff between the top two finishers will occur on May 30.

House

CA-45 — Since former Rep. Michelle Steel (R) has decided not to seek a rematch in 2026 against freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange), Republicans may have found a new candidate. Former Cerritos City Councilman Chuong Vo announced that he will enter the 2026 race to challenge the new Congressman. Should the California redistricting map receive majority vote in the Nov. 4 special election, the 45th would move several points closer to the Democratic side but would still be a competitive seat. Vo says he will run regardless of the redistricting outcome.

IL-2 — Former nine-term Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D) announced that he will attempt a political comeback in his former district. Jackson resigned from the House in 2012 after pleading to misusing $750,000 in congressional and campaign funds. He would spend 18 months in federal prison. In a crowded open Democratic field, Jackson will likely become the favorite to win the Democratic primary and then the seat next year. The 2nd District is open because incumbent Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago) is running for US Senate. Jackson’s brother, Jonathan Jackson (D-Chicago), currently represents the 1st Congressional District.

MD-7 — Baltimore City Councilman Mark Conway (D) filed a congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission suggesting that he may challenge veteran Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D-Baltimore). Rep. Mfume was first elected to the House in 1986 but left Congress to head the NAACP in 1996. He returned to the House in the 2020 election.

Prior to his service in Congress, Mfume spent eight years on the Baltimore City Council. It remains to be seen whether Conway is preparing a primary challenge or readying a congressional committee in case Congressman Mfume decides to retire.

MO-1 — Former Missouri Congresswoman Cori Bush (D), who was defeated in the 2024 Democratic primary, announced that she will attempt a political comeback. Bush declared that she will return for a rematch with freshman Rep. Wesley Bell (D-St. Louis), who defeated her 51-46 percent in the previous Democratic primary.

The 1st District is largely unchanged in the new Missouri redistricting map, so we will see a rerun of the 2024 campaign. In ’24, Rep. Bell went onto score a 76 percent win in the general election. During her two terms in the House, Bush was a member of the informal Democratic Socialist “Squad” caucus.

NH-2 — Democratic state Representative Paige Beauchemin (D-Nashua) announced that she will challenge freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) in next year’s September Democratic primary. Beauchemin, who won her state position in 2022, says she will run a campaign based upon a “message of radical empathy and grassroots energy.” Rep. Goodlander will be a heavy favorite for renomination and re-election in 2026.

NY-19 — In a seat that has swung back and forth between Democratic and Republican representation in the US House, freshman Rep. Josh Riley (D-Ithaca), who defeated then-Rep. Marc Molinaro (R), sees a new Republican announcing his candidacy. In what promises to be a competitive race, state Sen. Peter Oberacker (R-Schenevus) stated that he will join the 2026 congressional campaign. We can expect this race to become a national congressional campaign that is expensive and highly competitive.

TN-9 — Tennessee state Rep. Justin Pearson (D-Memphis) this week announced that he will challenge veteran Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) who, as a white male, has held the majority black district since the 2006 election. Prior to his service in Congress, Rep. Cohen served 24 years in the Tennessee state Senate. This is another Democratic primary situation where a young challenger – Rep. Pearson is 30 years old – is challenging an older veteran incumbent. Rep. Cohen is 76 years old. This race can become highly competitive.

Governor

Alaska — Former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson (R), who was defeated for re-election to a second term, has entered the 2026 open Governor’s race. He becomes the 10th Republican vying for the party nomination. The group includes Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom and ex-appointed Attorney General Treg Taylor. Sen. Lisa Murkowski also has not publicly ruled out joining the campaign. On the Democratic side, former state Sen. Tom Begich is the only announced candidate. Begich, however, says he will withdraw if former Rep. Mary Peltola decides to enter. Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Maine — Health care company executive Jonathan Bush, cousin to former President George W. Bush, announced that he is joining the crowded open Governor’s candidate field. Bush is now the seventh Republican to announce his or her candidacy. Democrats have five contenders, along with three Independents. Gov. Janet Mills (D) cannot succeed herself under Maine’s term limit law. She is expected to challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R) next year.

New Jersey — Despite considerable negative publicity for Democratic nominee and Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) over her stock transactions and Naval Academy cheating scandal controversy, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds her still leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli. The PPP results (Oct. 2-3; 703 registered New Jersey voters; text and live interview) see Sherrill posting a 49-43 percent advantage. Other polls show the Sherrill lead between two and eight points. It is probable the race is close. Ciattarelli has substantially under-polled in his previous statewide campaigns based upon the actual result. This will be an interesting race in the campaign’s final month as the candidates stream toward the Nov. 4 election date.

New York — After several polls had shown Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) posting large polling leads over presumed GOP candidate and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville), an extensive Grayhouse firm survey (Sept. 20-26; 1,250 likely New York voters; 750 text-to-web; 500 live interview; 605 likely New York Democratic primary voters) sees a much closer ballot test result. According to Grayhouse, Gov. Hochul’s lead is just 48-43 percent over Rep. Stefanik.

This data also shows a tightening of the Democratic primary, though Gov. Hochul maintains a sizable lead. The ballot test for this cell segment shows the Governor’s advantage at 43-14 percent over Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado.

Rhode Island — After toying with the idea of challenging Democratic Gov. Dan McKee in the party primary, term-limited Attorney General Peter Neronha announced that he will not enter the statewide race.

At this point, the Governor’s principal Democratic challenger is his 2022 opponent, former corporate CEO Helena Foulkes. State House Speaker Joe Shekarchi (D-Warwick) is also reportedly still considering a gubernatorial bid. The Rhode Island primary is not until Sept. 8, so much time remains for this race to gel. Winning the Democratic primary is tantamount to clinching the Governorship.

South Carolina — A new poll suggests the open South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary has a new leader, and it is not any of the more established political names.

The Trafalgar Group just released a new October poll for the South Carolina Republican primary (Sept. 30-Oct. 2; 1,094 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the race’s top finisher is Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette. From these results, Evette edges Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), Attorney General Alan Wilson, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg), 20-16-12-9-1 percent, respectively with an undecided percentage of 41. All figures are rounded to the highest number.

Wisconsin — Ending speculation about whether he would enter the open Governor’s race, state Attorney General Josh Kaul (D) announced that he will seek re-election to a third term rather than enter what will be a highly competitive open campaign. The Democratic gubernatorial primary field already features Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, former state cabinet secretary Missy Hughes, and two state legislators. Gov. Tony Evers (D) is not seeking a third term.

Rep. Hunt Enters Texas Senate Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025

Senate

As has been speculated upon for months, two-term US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) officially entered the 2026 Republican US Senate primary in Texas. He joins a campaign that has been active for almost a year between GOP principal participants, Sen. John Cornyn, the four-term incumbent, and three-term Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Though Rep. Hunt only became an official candidate this week, a Super PAC supporting him has already spent an estimated $6 million, according to a Texas Tribune news story, to positively promote him around the state. The advertisements were run in media markets throughout Texas with the exception of Houston, from where the Congressman resides and represents.

In his announcement address, Rep. Hunt basically outlined his campaign strategy. A comment from his speech is indicative of how he intends to conduct his effort. Hunt said, “the US Senate race in Texas must be about more than a petty feud between two men who have spent months trading barbs. With my candidacy, this race will finally be about what’s most important: Texas.”

Assuming he follows through on his rhetoric, Rep. Hunt’s strategy will be to bunch Cornyn and Paxton together as if they are one, and campaign against the pair as a singular negative unit. He hopes to feed the fires of negative campaigning between the two men, and then come from the outside as a positive alternative. This approach has worked in many competitive multi-candidate campaigns when two contenders begin to attack each other, thus leaving a lane open for a third credible person to become a positive alternative.

Realistically, the Hunt for Senate campaign, which obviously has outside financial support and at least $3 million in his congressional campaign account that is fully transferrable to a Senate campaign, is most likely to deny either Cornyn or Paxton the opportunity of reaching the 50 percent mark to clinch the March 3 Republican primary. This means the two would advance to a runoff election on May 26.

Early three-way polling suggests the runoff scenario is likely. Nine polls from eight different pollsters have been conducted of the Texas Senate Republican primary that included all three individuals. Two organizations, Real Clear Politics and Decision Desk HQ, have averaged all the poll results and consistently find Hunt well behind in third place.

The Real Clear Politics average finds Paxton leading Sen. Cornyn 36.7 to 32.7 percent with Rep. Hunt capturing 19.0 percent support. Decision Desk HQ sees a closer battle between Cornyn and Paxton, 37.0 to 36.3 percent, respectively, with Hunt bunched together with the Other/Undecided option for a total support factor of 26.7 percent.

In the underlying polls that comprise the DDHQ average, the undecided percentage is running equivalent to Hunt’s support figure, so it would be reasonable to project the Congressman’s total at approximately 14 percent.

Therefore, at the campaign’s early juncture, the preponderance of polling data suggests that Hunt’s entry forces a runoff between Cornyn and Paxton.

With Rep. Hunt having entered the Senate race, it also means his 38th District US House seat will come open. There are temporarily 34 open House seats, including two vacancies being filled in special elections later this year.

Of the 34, a total of 21 are now in Republican-held districts versus just 10 from the Democratic side. The Texas redistricting plan created three new open seats in previously non-existent districts. Rep. Hunt not running again for the House means that at least eight of Texas’ 38 congressional seats will be open in the next election.

The 38th District is fully contained within the central portion of Harris County under the new configuration. According to the updated partisan lean figures from Dave’s Redistricting App, the new 38th carries a 60.5R – 37.4D voting history calculation. Therefore, we can expect a crowded and competitive Republican primary here, with the eventual GOP nominee becoming the prohibitive favorite to clinch the general election.

Returning to the national open House seat count, from the 29 open districts around the country (the number excludes those created in redistricting (three) or where a member passed away or resigned from office (two), 11 Representatives are leaving the House to run for Senate, 10 are running for Governor in their respective state, one is competing for another statewide office (Attorney General of Texas), and seven are retiring from elective politics.

Rep. Schweikert Announces for
Governor in Arizona

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 3, 2025

House

Arizona Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale) / Photo by Gage Skidmore via Flickr

Another US House seat came open Wednesday as eight-term Arizona Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale) announced that he will enter the competitive Republican primary for Governor.

The House open seat count now grows, at least temporarily, to 33. Two more special elections will be held before the end of the year to fill vacancies in Tennessee and Texas.

Rep. Schweikert’s 1st Congressional District becomes the third Republican open in the volatile toss-up category. After the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission members turned Rep. Schweikert’s safe Republican 6th District into a politically marginal 1st District, he has seen two very close re-election results along with a tight presidential contest within his current constituency.

In 2022, Rep. Schweikert was re-elected with just 50.2 percent of the vote over political newcomer and businessman Jevin Hodge (D). Two years later with Hodge not returning for a re-match, the incumbent scored another tight re-election victory but with an improved 51.9 percent against former state Representative and physician Amish Shah (D). This, after winning renomination with just under 63 percent of the vote.

Considering, however, that Schweikert had just agreed to violating 11 different House ethics rules and campaign finance violations resulting in an agreed to $50,000 fine, his strong campaign skills allowed him to politically survive.

President Trump defeated Kamala Harris here with a similarly close 51.1 – 48.0 percent victory margin. In 2020, Joe Biden nipped Trump within the current District 1 confines with a 50-49 percent margin.

Clearly, the 1st District congressional campaign will move further up the Democratic target list now that the seat is open. Already in the race originally vying for the opportunity of challenging Rep. Schweikert is a return appearance from Dr. Shah and former news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, who lost the 2024 Democratic primary.

Republicans will now have to find a new nominee with Schweikert pursuing his new statewide venture. Potential GOP candidates reportedly are state Rep. Matt Gress and Phoenix City Councilman Jim Waring.

Already, however, announcing they will not run for Congress, according to The Down Ballot political blog reporters, are Maricopa County Board of Supervisors’ chairman Thomas Galvin and state Sen. Carine Werner.

While Rep. Schweikert would have faced another difficult re-election campaign for the House, his path toward the Republican gubernatorial nomination is also far from secure. In the race for months have been fellow Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) and 2022 statewide candidate Karrin Taylor Robson.

At least at one point, President Trump had endorsed both Biggs and Robson but then appeared to rescind his endorsement of the latter. The President indicated he didn’t feel that she was using his endorsement to the fullest extent.

A recent Pulse Decision Science survey (Sept. 8-10; 502 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; live interview) finds Rep. Biggs opening a large GOP primary lead. According to the Pulse ballot test, the Congressman would lead Robson 55-31 percent. The poll was taken just after Rep. Schweikert initially said he was considering entering the race. Adding him to the gubernatorial ballot test question found Schweikert trailing badly with only 11 percent support.

An August, Noble Predictive Insights survey (Aug. 11-18; 365 registered Arizona Republican voters) gave Robson a 37-27 percent advantage over Rep. Biggs. This poll, however, appears to be an outlier.

Previously, four other surveys were released since the beginning of the year from four different pollsters and all cast Rep. Biggs with a substantial advantage. Within the four studies, Biggs averaged 55 percent preference among Republican primary voting respondents as compared to 20 percent for Robson.

The eventual Republican nominee after the Aug. 4, 2026, primary election will face incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). Polling is already forecasting a close race irrespective of who becomes the ultimate GOP challenger.

With a tight Governor’s race, two open US House seats, and either primary or general election competition in five of the state’s nine congressional districts, Arizona will be a key electoral state in the 2026 midterm cycle.