Category Archives: Polling

Nebraska Senate: Here We Go Again

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, January 28, 2026

Senate

In every US Senate election cycle, it seems that a surprising race unexpectedly comes to national prominence, and one 2026 such campaign is already emerging.

Nebraska US Senate candidate Dan Osborn

In 2024, Independent Dan Osborn came from nowhere to battle Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R), and for a long while it appeared he was close to pulling the upset of the year. In the end, Sen. Fischer won by six percentage points, and the Osborn surge fell short.

The chief reason that Osborn, as an Independent, became a competitive threat was because the Nebraska Democratic Party agreed not to field their own candidate and the Democratic state convention delegates then endorsed the Osborn campaign. Serious national fundraising then caught fire.

Osborn’s original reported choice for the 2026 election cycle was to run in the highly competitive 2nd Congressional District, now an open seat with Rep. Don Bacon’s (R-Papillion/Omaha) retirement; but, the Democratic leadership would not commit to supporting him. The reason is simple: The eventual Democratic nominee has a strong chance of winning the seat. The state party leaders said, however, they would again support an Osborn Senate bid, this time against the state’s other Republican incumbent, Pete Ricketts.

In a poll conducted a month ago but just released this week, we again see Osborn performing very well in a Senate battle. According to the Lake Research Partners ballot test data (Dec. 11-17; 600 likely Nebraska voters; live interview), Sen. Ricketts’ lead is only one percentage point, 48-47.

In the 2024 race, Osborn clearly over-performed in polling. In the 19 polls released publicly during the election year, Osborn led in eight ballot tests, was tied in two, and only trailed Sen. Fischer by an average of 4.3 percentage points in the nine surveys where she held the advantage. The momentum turned Sen. Fischer’s way in the campaign’s closing days.

The question for 2026 is whether the closeness of the 2024 race was an anomaly or is Osborn a true threat to upset Sen. Ricketts? In reality, Osborn winning the statewide tally is still a long shot.

In the 2024 race, though Osborn came relatively close in the final vote (53.2 – 46.5 percent), Sen. Fischer still carried 89 of the state’s 93 counties. Osborn’s strength was obviously in the Omaha metropolitan area and in Lancaster County, which hosts the capital city of Lincoln and is home to the University of Nebraska.

In the 89 counties that she carried, Sen. Fischer recorded 66.4 percent of the vote. In the four counties where she lost, which accounted for 56.3 percent of the total votes counted, she trailed Osborn substantially, 56.7 – 43.0 percent.

Sen. Fischer, however, displayed weakness in the metro areas to a greater extent than the other Republican candidates on the same ballot. Therefore, the Osborn task against Sen. Ricketts will be much more difficult.

In those same four counties, Douglas, Lancaster, Sarpy, and Thurston, Sen. Ricketts pulled 50.1 percent in his special election to fill the balance of resigned Sen. Ben Sasse’s (R) term and carried both Sarpy and Thurston counties. In the 89 Republican counties, Sen. Ricketts recorded 78.7 percent of the vote, a performance 16 percentage points higher than Sen. Fischer’s total.

For his part, President Trump also outpolled Sen. Fischer. In the four counties she lost, President Trump recorded 46.9 percent (also carrying Sarpy and Thurston counties) and topped 75 percent in the 89 Republican counties.

While Osborn will have strong union support, the Nebraska Democratic Party behind him, and the ability to raise funds nationally, Sen. Ricketts, considering his strong 2024 Senate win and his 58.1 percent average vote tally in his two successful gubernatorial campaigns, is a clear favorite for re-election.

It will not be surprising to see closer than expected polling published in the coming months, as we have already seen with this December Lake Research Partners poll, but as we approach election day Sen. Ricketts will very likely pull away to win with a substantial victory margin.

Klobuchar Files Gov. Committee;
Minnesota Senate Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, January 27, 2026

Governor

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

It appears Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) is moving closer to entering the Minnesota open Governor’s race, and her official announcement could come this week.

Toward the end of last week, Sen. Klobuchar filed a state campaign committee for the purpose of preparing a gubernatorial bid. The act of filing, in and of itself, does not mean an individual is an official candidate, but the prevailing Minnesota political reports suggest that launching her candidacy is imminent.

Since Gov. Tim Walz (D) had announced his intention to seek a third term but then withdrew at the height of publicity over the public assistance program fraud scandal, the potential Democratic candidate field found itself virtually frozen because of Sen. Klobuchar’s likely candidacy.

It is apparent that a Klobuchar entry would virtually seal the party’s gubernatorial nomination so Republican candidate speculation comes to the forefront. Former state Senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Scott Jensen is the most likely GOP prospect, and he has confirmed his interest in a potential run.

Other possible Republican candidates are state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R-Cold Spring), state Rep. Peggy Bennett (R-Albert Lea), state Rep. Kristin Robbins (R-Maple Grove), ex-St. Cloud City Councilman Jeff Johnson, agribusiness company CEO Patrick Knight, and several minor candidates. Regardless of who wins the GOP nomination, Sen. Klobuchar will be rated a heavy favorite to win the governorship. If successful, she would then appoint her own successor to the Senate.

The state’s other Senate seat hosts an open race, too, because incumbent Sen. Tina Smith (D) is retiring. Here, we see a competitive two-way Democratic primary developing between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).

While Rep. Craig has a financial advantage, and we will soon see the updated financial totals on the Federal Election Commission 2025 year-end report, Lt. Gov. Flanagan has the early polling lead.

Poll

A just released Public Policy Polling survey (Jan. 16-17; 976 likely Minnesota Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) finds Flanagan leading Rep. Craig, 40-28 percent.

The follow-up questions show that the Minnesota Democratic base is strongly liberal. When asked whether the respondent would be more or less likely to vote for Rep. Craig if they knew she voted to support the Laken Riley Act “that allows the deportation and detention of undocumented immigrants suspected of a nonviolent crime (PPP wording),” 59 percent responded less likely.

Additionally, 71 percent of those surveyed say they would be less likely to vote for Rep. Craig when knowing that she supported a congressional resolution “that included language expressing gratitude to ICE.”

On the secondary ballot test question, asked after reading the aforementioned responses, the Flanagan lead increases to a heightened 54-22 percent. Therefore, it appears Rep. Craig begins the election year as the underdog.

The Congresswoman’s difficulty factor will likely grow after the Minnesota state endorsing convention, held well before the Aug. 11 primary. Lt. Gov. Flanagan will be favored to win the official party endorsement from the attending convention delegates.

Typically, under Minnesota political tradition, most candidates who lose the endorsement vote end their campaign. It is becoming apparent, however, that Rep. Craig, should she lose, will force a primary campaign.

The state of Minnesota has attracted a great deal of national news attention in the past few weeks, and it appears the domain’s 2026 elections will draw even more.

Major New Hampshire Poll Released

By Jim Ellis — Monday, January 26, 2026

Polling

The University of New Hampshire regularly polls its home state, and the new Granite State Poll provides a glimpse into every key 2026 race that the New Hampshire voters will decide. Front and center is the state’s open US Senate race as candidates work toward becoming retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s (D) successor.

The university’s Survey Center (Jan. 15-19; 2,239 New Hampshire registered voters, 2,053 likely New Hampshire general election voters; 893 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters; 967 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters; online) just released the results from their rather exhaustive mid-January questionnaire.

In the Senate general election polling, US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) leads former US Senator John E. Sununu, 50-45%. If former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown were the Republican nominee, Rep. Pappas’ support level would expand to a double-digit 52-42% advantage.

In the Republican primary, Sununu leads ex-Sen. Brown by an even greater 48-25 percent margin. For the Democrats, the Pappas primary lead over scientist Karishma Manzur is a whopping, and unsurprising, 65-11 percent.

The New Hampshire Senate race is one of nine such open contests around the country, which is an unusually large number. Of the nine, five come in Republican states and four in Democratic domains, but only three — Michigan, New Hampshire, and North Carolina — appear competitive for the general election. A fourth state, Minnesota, may be on the cusp of competitiveness now that Republicans have a credible candidate in retired national sportscaster Michele Tafoya (see last week’s update).

The pollsters then interviewed 958 likely voters in New Hampshire’s eastern 1st Congressional District, the seat that Rep. Pappas is risking to run for the Senate.

Among those saying they will participate in the Democratic primary, former Portsmouth City Councilwoman Stefany Shaheen, daughter of retiring the Senator, holds a 33-10-8 percent advantage over state Rep. Heath Howard (D-Strafford) and ex-Obama Administration official Maura Sullivan.

On the Republican side, businesswoman and former New Hampshire GOP Vice-Chair Hollie Noveletsky records a 15-10 percent preference over businessman Anthony DiLorenzo. The Granite Poll did not test the general election, but the eventual Democratic nominee will be a slight favorite to hold the competitive 1st District in November.

The Granite Poll also interviewed 1,093 likely voters in New Hampshire’s western 2nd Congressional District. Here, freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) holds a huge 66-12 percent lead over state Rep. Paige Beauchemin (D-Nashua) in the Democratic primary. In the general election pairing, the Congresswoman is projected to lead 2024 Republican nominee Lily Tang Williams, 54-40 percent. In 2024, Goodlander defeated Williams, 51-43 percent. The latter woman, to date, is unopposed for the Republican nomination.

The UNH Survey Center pollsters also tested the Governor’s race where first-term Governor and former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) will seek re-election for a second two-year term. New Hampshire and neighboring Vermont are the only two states that feature two-year gubernatorial terms.

In testing Gov. Ayotte through hypothetical general election pairings, the pollsters find her leading Portsmouth Mayor Deaglan McEachern, a possible Democratic candidate, 49-41 percent. Against businessman Jon Kiper who is an announced Democratic gubernatorial candidate, she posts a stronger 50-39 percent preference advantage.

Since the beginning of the Trump political era, New Hampshire has largely moved toward the Democratic column. Though the presidential elections have been close, the electorate has voted against President Trump in all three of his campaigns, as polling correctly predicted in each case.

Therefore, looking ahead to the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats must be viewed as having the inside track in the Senate race and the two US House campaigns with Republican incumbent Ayotte being favored for re-election. While the Democrats have won the presidential races and fared stronger in the federal congressional campaigns since 2014, Republicans have claimed the last five gubernatorial races.

Though the New Hampshire Republican candidates have generally fared poorly, the Sununu family continues to win races for the GOP — i.e., former Gov. Chris Sununu’s four consecutive wins. Thus, the electorate nominating former Sen. John E. Sununu, which is likely, should move this race higher on the Republican target charts after the state’s very late Sept. 8 primary election.

While having a small population, the Granite State will again draw more than its share of national political attention in the 2026 midterm elections. Regardless of the final outcome, we can be assured of close finishes in the Senate, 1st District House contest, and the Governor’s race later this year.

Three-Way Race Unfolding in Texas

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025

Senate

Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) / Facebook photo

The Texas Senate election has already drawn a great deal of attention during the 2026 early campaign segment and likely will attract more based upon recent polling.

When the Lone Star State’s Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) entered the Republican US Senate primary, most observers believed he would act as a spoiler for the battle between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Rep. Hunt’s presence, it was believed, would siphon enough votes away from the two leading candidates to force a secondary runoff election in order to decide the Republican nomination.

According to four different polls, all conducted between the Dec. 1-4 period, Rep. Hunt is now attracting enough support to position himself to secure one of the runoff slots.

The four polls came from four different pollsters: three Republican companies and one Democratic research firm. The Republican pollsters were McLaughlin & Associates, J.L. Partners, and co/efficient, while Public Policy Polling was the lone Democratic firm to test the Republican primary in early December.

Public Policy Polling (Dec. 1-2; 527 likely Texas Republican primary voters; text & live interview) was the initial pollster in the field, and their result was the first of the December data to find Rep. Hunt forging into polling parity with both Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton. The ballot test showed Paxton leading Cornyn and Hunt, 32-22-22 percent.

Both co/efficient (Dec. 1-3; 1,022 likely Texas Republican primary voters; online) and J.L. Partners (Dec. 1-3; 600 likely Texas Republican primary voters) were in the field simultaneously but arrived at different results.

The Partners find Paxton leading with 29 percent and Cornyn and Hunt tied at 22 percent; co/efficient’s conclusion found Sen. Cornyn topping the group at 28 percent support, with AG Paxton pulling into a virtual tie at 27 percent. Though co/efficient found Rep. Hunt lagging, he was still within single digits of the two leaders at 19 percent preference.

McLauglin & Associates (Dec. 1-4; 800 likely Texas Republican primary voters) then found Paxton leading Hunt and Cornyn in a closely bunched field at 33-28-27 percent.

Averaging these four polls, we find Paxton having the most aggregate support, averaging 29.7 percent per survey. Sen. Cornyn’s average was 26.3 percent, while Rep. Hunt recorded 23.7 percent. Therefore, these numbers — again derived from professional polling firms all within the same time period — find a wide-open three-way race where each of the three have a legitimate chance of qualifying for the runoff … or being left out.

The latest campaign financial disclosure reports (period ending Sept. 30) find that Sen. Cornyn is in the best financial position with more than $6 million cash-on-hand. Paxton has just over $3 million, while Rep. Hunt posts slightly more than $1.5 million in his campaign account.

With the short campaign season to the March 3 primary, we can expect heavy spending as each candidate works to position themselves to clinch one of the two runoff slots. Count on seeing a Republican mad dash to the finish beginning in late February.

We also saw the first post-candidate filing deadline poll on the Democratic side. Texas Southern University surveyed the likely Democratic voters and found Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) leading state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) beyond the polling margin of error.

According to the Texas Southern data (Dec. 9-11; 1,600 likely Texas Democratic primary voters; online), Rep. Crockett’s advantage over Talarico is 51-43 percent. Contrary to the situation on the Republican side, with two major candidates the Democratic nomination fight will very likely end on March 3 because either Crockett or Talarico should be positioned well enough to command majority support on the first vote.

The Democrats’ Maine Dilemma

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2025

Senate

Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) | Facebook photo

Another recent poll has been released showing Maine Gov. Janet Mills trailing her top Democratic Senate nomination opponent, and this time the margin isn’t even close.

While the surveys have been wildly inconsistent so far in this race, the latest Z to A Research study (Nov. 14-18; 845 likely Maine Democratic primary voters) finds businessman Graham Platner now taking a 20-point lead over the Governor, 58-38 percent. Originally thinking that Gov. Mills would have a clear path for the party nomination in preparation of challenging veteran Sen. Susan Collins (R), the Democratic leadership now sees what promises to be a bruising battle in the June 9 primary.

You’ll remember Platner as being embroiled in a controversy pertaining to a particular chest tattoo that is associated with the Nazis. He claimed to not realize there was a connection. He also apologized for posting a series of past offensive tweets. The negative publicity surrounding the tattoo and tweets largely explain the polling downturn in mid-October. The current Z to A poll suggests that he has overcome the flap.

Five different pollsters tested the Maine Democratic electorate from mid-October to late November, and while four of the five found Platner leading, his advantage range is very wide.

As mentioned above, the Z to A Research poll posts Platner to a 20-point lead, 58-38 percent. Maine’s People’s Resource Center (Oct. 26-29; 783 registered Maine voters) finds an obviously much smaller 41-39 percent ballot test in Platner’s favor.

SoCal Strategies sees a different outcome. Their poll (Oct. 21-25; 500 likely Maine Democratic primary voters) projects Gov. Mills with a five-point lead, 41-36 percent.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee polled the Democratic primary (Oct. 22-23; 647 likely Maine Democratic primary voters) and also sees Platner holding a major double-digit lead, 46-25 percent.

Finally, the first poll taken during this period, from the neighboring University of New Hampshire (Oct. 16-21; 510 likely Maine Democratic primary voters), also records Mr. Platner with a huge lead, 58-24 percent.

The wild swings seen within these five polls all conducted within a relatively consistent time frame provides evidence that Maine is a difficult state to poll. In the 2020 Senate race, literally every published survey – 14 of them according to the Real Clear Politics Polling Archives – showed Sen. Collins trailing 2020 Democratic nominee Sara Gideon, the state House Speaker, by an average of almost five percentage points. Yet, Sen. Collins won the election with an 8.6-point spread. Only her internal pollster, Moore Information, correctly projected the outcome in the election’s final polling phase.

While Platner is a first-time candidate, he already has attracted support from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and the Democratic Party’s far left faction. The Maine Democratic primary is one of a number of situations that feature a populist left-wing candidate challenging a more establishment oriented liberal.

Although it looks like Platner may now have the inside track to upending Gov. Mills for the party nomination, defeating Sen. Collins may be another story.

Maine is a two-congressional district state, and the 1st and 2nd districts are politically very different. The southern 1st CD, which houses the Pine Tree State’s largest city of Portland, is solidly liberal. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a ME-1 partisan lean of 53.6D – 40.8R.

The northern 2nd District, which stretches from the Lewiston-Auburn area to the Canadian border, is conservative, but often swings between candidates. The 2nd is the most Republican seat in the country that sends a Democrat (Rep. Jared Golden) to the House of Representatives. Conversely, President Trump has easily carried ME-2 in all three of his campaigns. The DRA partisan lean for this seat is 52.9R – 41.1D.

To win a statewide race in Maine, each party must outperform his or her opponent to the largest degree in the district that typically favors its party’s candidates. Sen. Collins’ overwhelming win in ME-2 five years ago allowed her to overcome losing ME-1. In the presidential races, the Democratic nominee in each of Trump’s three campaigns carried ME-1 with a greater percentage than he took ME-2, thus allowing Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris to win the statewide vote tally.

The Maine Senate race promises to be one of the most-covered campaigns of the 2026 election cycle. While the Republicans currently look secure to hold chamber control, the 53-47 majority margin could certainly change. The Maine result will go a long way to determining the final partisan division numbers and the new majority’s size.

Massachusetts Senate:
Another Noteworthy Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 1, 2025

Senate

Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey (D)

Two new polls were released in the budding Massachusetts Senate Democratic primary, and both suggest that veteran Sen. Ed Markey will find himself in another tough renomination campaign.

The first poll, from the University of New Hampshire, a frequent pollster of New England political races, tested Sen. Markey and Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) who announced his primary challenge in mid-October. The result shows Rep. Moulton in a competitive position in a hypothetical one-on-one challenge race against Sen. Markey.

The second poll, from Suffolk University and the Boston Globe newspaper, tested Sen. Markey, Rep. Moulton, and Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Boston) who is considering entering the race. This poll result puts Markey and Pressley in a dead heat, with Moulton well behind. The Suffolk poll, however, does not meet the polling reliability standard as it relates to their Democratic primary cell segment.

The University of New Hampshire survey (Nov. 13-17; 618 registered Massachusetts voters; 343 likely Democratic primary voters; online) posts Sen. Markey to a 34-25 percent lead over Rep. Moulton. While the Senator maintains a lead beyond the polling margin of error, posting a support figure of only 34 percent within his own party certainly reveals a weak standing for a long-time incumbent. Markey was first elected to the Senate in a 2013 special election, but his first election to Congress, for the US House, came in 1976.

The Suffolk University poll (Nov. 19-23; 500 registered Massachusetts voters; live interview), sees Rep. Pressley leading Sen. Markey 35-34 percent with Rep. Moulton only scoring 16 percent. This poll, however, reveals only 144 responses from Democratic primary voters, with another 88 from Independent/Non-Affiliated voters who say they will participate in the Democratic primary. Thus, 232 responses are far below the minimum 300 sample cell standard for a statewide poll in a domain with nine congressional districts. Therefore, these results should be considered unreliable.

Regardless of what early polling may reveal, Sen. Markey is a proven winner over decades of campaigns, and he scored an impressive win in the 2020 Democratic primary. In that election, Sen. Markey defeated then-Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III, thus defeating a member of the Kennedy family in their home state within the national party that his relatives once led.

Researching the polling archives from the 2020 race, we find that Sen. Markey trailed in the early going then, too.

From February through May of 2020, Sen. Markey fell behind Rep. Kennedy in three publicly released surveys from three different pollsters. The strongest Kennedy lead came from a Boston based Emerson College poll (May 5-6; 620 likely Massachusetts Democratic primary voters) that found a 58-42 percent margin in the challenger’s favor. The others showed the race much closer, but also with Kennedy leading.

In the September 2020 primary, however, Sen. Markey recorded a 55-45 percent victory after running a strong coalition-based campaign that overcame the “Kennedy mystique” in roaring fashion.

The Massachusetts primary is one of the latest in the country. In 2026, the Bay State Democratic voters won’t choose their nominees until Sept. 1. Therefore, this race has a long maturation period during which time we shall see major change.

The key facet may be whether Rep. Pressley decides to enter the Senate race. A member of the House Democratic “Squad” that New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-East Elmhurst) leads, Rep. Pressley identifies as a Democratic Socialist.

She publicly confirms considering the Senate race and still has plenty of time to make a decision with a candidate filing deadline of May 5. The Congresswoman would risk a safe House seat, so the decision to run statewide against a veteran incumbent is major.

Rep. Moulton, who is viewed as being closer to the ideological center, would have a difficult time overtaking Markey in a head-to-head pairing since the Senator’s liberal record is closer to the Democratic base.

In a three-way race with Rep. Pressley added, Moulton’s chances may actually improve since the far left and the liberal left bases would be split between Markey and Pressley. This would give Moulton a better victory path because he could unite a coalition of more centrist Democrats. Though lesser in number, a three-way split would require less votes to win the plurality Democratic primary.

Expect to see a diverse set of released polling results at least through next Spring. Once Pressley makes a decision and we get closer to the election, clearer patterns will emerge. In the end, Sen. Markey will be favored and should record another convincing victory irrespective of who he may ultimately face in the Democratic primary.

Two New Special Elections

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 26, 2025

This is our last update for the week. We’ll take a pause for Thanksgiving and pick up again Monday, Dec. 1. Wishing all a very Happy Thanksgiving!

House

Governors in two states are making moves to calendar elections to fill new congressional vacancies in their states. With Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) resigning her congressional seat to prepare for her swearing in as the Garden State Governor, and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) declaring that she will leave Congress on Jan. 5, two more districts will soon host special elections.

Since this Congress began, we have seen four seats filled in special elections; two more are scheduled, the first on Dec. 2 (TN-7) and the other Jan. 31 (TX-18), and now the Georgia-New Jersey pair open.

Three seats became vacant because the incumbent passed away — Reps. Raul Grijalva (AZ), Sylvester Turner (TX), Gerry Connally (VA); one accepted an appointment from President Trump, Rep. Mike Waltz (FL); three resigned for other opportunities, Reps. Matt Gaetz (FL), Greene (GA), Mark Green (TN); and one, Sherrill, won election to a different office.

NJ-11

Rep. Mikie Sherrill being elected New Jersey Governor on Nov. 4 creates a new vacancy in the Garden State congressional delegation. The 11th District lies in the northern part of the state and is reliably Democratic.

Under previous redistricting plans in the early part of the century, the 11th, which now includes parts of three counties, Essex, Morris, and Passaic, and the population centers of Morristown, Parsippany-Troy Hills, and Gov-Elect Sherrill’s hometown of Montclair, was a Republican district.

The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean for the current NJ-11 shows a 55.6D – 42.5R ratio. Kamala Harris carried the district 53.3 – 44.6 percent. Therefore, the stats show that Gov-Elect Sherrill’s successor will very likely be determined in the special Democratic primary.

Gov. Phil Murphy (D) just announced that the District 11 special partisan primaries will be held on Feb. 5, with the special general scheduled for April 16. Candidates must file right after Thanksgiving, on Dec. 1.

A total of 14 Democrats have announced their candidacies, including former 7th District Congressman Tom Malinowski. In 2022, Malinowski, who saw his district become a touch more Republican in 2021 redistricting largely to make the 11th and now-Sen. Andy Kim’s (D) former 3rd District more Democratic. Then-Rep. Malinowski would lose to current Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) as a result.

Beyond Malinowski, the Democratic field includes former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, five local officials from various townships, and former Obama White House aide Cammie Croft. Only one Republican is in the race, Randolph Town Commissioner and Mayor Joe Hathaway.

GA-14

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Rome) surprise resignation means an ensuing special election will be held in northwest Georgia. Reportedly, sources close to Gov. Brian Kemp (R) say he is leaning toward scheduling a March primary.

Under Georgia election law, when special elections are held all candidates are placed on the same ballot regardless of political party affiliation. If a contender receives majority support in the first election, the individual is elected. If no one reaches such a level, the top two finishers, again regardless of political party affiliation, advance to a runoff election within 28 days of the initial vote.

With an overwhelming Republican partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App: 69.2R – 28.9D), meaning the 14th District is the safest Georgia Republican congressional district, the possibility of two Republicans advancing to the runoff is relatively high.

A total of six state Senate seats and 17 districts in the state House contain part of the 14th CD. Encompassing all or part of 10 counties, a multitude of Republican state and local officials are likely to enter the congressional campaign.

State Senate Majority Leader Jason Anavitarte (R-Doraville) and state Sen. Colton Moore (R-Trenton), who for a time was in this year’s US Senate campaign, are viewed as potentially strong candidates.

The field will form once Rep. Greene resigns after the first of the year and Gov. Kemp officially calls the special election.