Category Archives: House

Special Elections Update

by Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025

Special Elections

With the TN-7 special election now complete, three more contests are pegged for the first quarter of next year. The upcoming special elections will be held in Georgia, New Jersey, and Texas.

TN-7

This week’s Tennessee result saw the 7th District electorate performing as the voting history projected, thus quelling the Democrats’ quest for the upset that certain polls suggested was possible. The 54-44 percent result from what will likely be a touch over 180,000 votes cast when all ballots are counted – a large number for a special congressional election – was equivalent to the Dave’s Redistricting App’s partisan lean calculation of 55.1R – 42.2D.

Most importantly, from the Republicans’ perspective, the party apparatus proved in this instance, that they could turn out the base vote and a sizable number of the casual Trump voters, meaning those who typically only vote when the President is on the ballot. Repeatedly doing so in future elections will be a critical factor in determining whether the party will have success in the regular midterm elections next year.

GA-14

Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) will resign on Jan. 5. At that point, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) will schedule the special election to replace the outgoing Congresswoman in the northwestern district. GA-14 the safest Peach State Republican seat. The district stretches from just outside Marietta to the Tennessee border.

It is believed that Gov. Kemp will calendar the jungle primary for a date in March. Under Georgia special election law, all candidates are on the initial ballot with the top two finishers, irrespective of party affiliation, advancing to the runoff election in the likely event that no contender attracts majority support. To comply with state law, the secondary vote must occur within 28 days of the initial election. Therefore, it is probable that this seat will be filled before the end of April.

A total of 13 Republicans and two Democrats have already announced their candidacies, but the two most talked-about potential candidates, state Senate Majority Leader Jason Anavitarte (R-Doraville) and state Sen. Colton Moore (R-Trenton), have yet to formally declare.

It is probable that two Republicans will advance into the special runoff election. Republicans will hold this seat.

NJ-11

Gov.-Elect Mikie Sherrill (D) has resigned her congressional seat, thus leading to Gov. Phil Murphy (D) scheduling a Feb. 5 partisan primary and an April 16 special general election.

Candidate filing has closed, and 13 Democrats will be on the Feb. 5 ballot vying for the party nomination. Within the large group is former 7th District Congressman Tom Malinowski, ex-Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, and five local officials, with the remainder coming from the private sector or political activist class. Only one Republican filed, Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway, so he is guaranteed to win the party nomination, meaning a ballot slot for the special general election.

The partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations) for this district, which redistricting has made much more Democratic in the previous two decades, is 55.6D – 42.5R. Therefore, it is clear the eventual Democratic nominee will have the inside track toward winning the special election and holding the seat for the party.

TX-18

The longest special election cycle to fill a congressional vacancy will culminate with a Jan. 31 runoff contest between Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D). Since this is a double Democratic runoff, there is no doubt that the party will hold the seat for the duration of the current Congress.

Regardless of whether Menefee or Edwards wins the Jan. 31 vote, they will immediately find themselves embroiled in a new campaign against Rep. Al Green (D-Houston). Since it is likely that the new Texas congressional map will be in effect for the 2026 midterm elections, the Houston area sees a major reconfiguration of its congressional districts.

The new plan collapsed most of Rep. Green’s 9th CD into a new 18th District, with much of the current 18th going into Rep. Sylvia Garcia’s (D-Houston) new 29th CD. The regular cycle Texas primary is scheduled for March 3, so the eventual runoff winner and loser will find themselves immediately competing in a new campaign.

The regular term candidate filing deadline is Dec. 8. At this point, neither Menefee nor Edwards have filed for the new term, but both are expected to do so. This means that the loser of the Jan. 31 runoff could conceivably be an active candidate for the March 3 regular primary election, which could force Rep. Green into a runoff with either the new incumbent or the just-defeated runoff participant.

While the special election will end on Jan. 31, the campaign for a full term will already be entering political prime time.

TN-7: Republican Van Epps Wins

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025

Special Election

Afghan War veteran Matt Van Epps scored a 53.9 – 45.0 percent victory last night in the TN-7 special election.

In what was turning into the most important special congressional election of the latter half of 2025, former state cabinet official and Afghan War veteran Matt Van Epps scored a 53.9 – 45.0 percent victory last night over state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) securing the district for the GOP and avoiding a Democratic partisan upset of national proportions.

The last published poll, from Emerson College (Nov. 22-24; 600 likely TN-7 special election voters; multiple sampling techniques), found only a two-point spread in Van Epps’ favor, 48-46 percent. Outside allies from both parties individually spent seven figures to promote their ideological choice understanding that the victory stakes were becoming unusually high for what should be a reliable Republican district.

Though the 7th CD was viewed as a safely Republican seat, Democrats, riding high with their big victories from the Nov. 4 elections in New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia, believed they had a legitimate chance to record an upset win.

Though Van Epps did not reach the 60 percent level that President Trump and resigned Rep. Mark Green (R) both attained in the 2024 general election, last night’s result was very close to the district’s partisan lean.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 55.1R – 42.2D partisan division for TN-7, which is close to where the candidates landed last night. The district performed as expected. Van Epps carried 13 of the district’s 14 counties, losing only Davidson, which is the Democrats’ base and contains Rep. Behn’s state House district in the city of Nashville.

Before 2021 redistricting, the 7th was more Republican. Democrats were added to the 7th in the most recent redraw to make the adjacent 5th District winnable for a GOP candidate, thereby lessening the 7th’s Republican strength.

Turnout for this special election was extremely high: 179,770 votes counted with 99 percent of the precincts reporting according to the latest available report. Typically, special congressional elections draw around 100,000 voters. Here, the high spending from both sides contributed to the large turnout and also led to the Republicans successfully turning out its Trump vote base, something that was routinely not happening in other 2025 elections.

In those contests, mostly at the state legislative level we saw a few major Democratic upsets occur. Seeing such results was evidence that the Trump voter base failed to participate in sufficient numbers to carry Republican candidates in elections without the President on the ballot. The TN-7 win may give the Republican strategists the formula they need for improved GOP performances in next year’s midterm elections.

The House partisan division now moves to 220 Republicans and 213 Democrats, with two Democratic vacancies. The 18th District of Texas remains without an incumbent (death of Rep. Sylvester Turner) until the Jan. 31 runoff election. New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill resigned her 11th District US House seat after being elected her state’s Governor.

On Jan. 5, the Republican conference recedes to 219 when Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is scheduled to resign. The House will likely return to a full 435-member compliment in April when the projected special election calendars will be set for the purpose of filling the latter vacancies.

TN-7: Special Election Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025

Special Election

TN-7 candidates in today’s special election: Tennessee state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) / Republican Matt Van Epps.

Signs are prevalent that today’s special election in western Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District will be closer than the region’s voting history suggests.

An Emerson College pre-election survey (Nov. 22-24; 600 likely TN-7 special election voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds Republican Matt Van Epps, a former cabinet official in Gov. Bill Lee’s (R) administration, leading state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) by only a 48-46 percent margin. This, in a district that both President Trump and resigned Congressman Mark Green (R) carried with 60 percent of the vote in 2024.

Both parties see outside allies pouring in money to help their favored candidates, so the political advertising has been intense. Turnout, as always, will be the key. The early voting numbers show Democratic participation up in the Davidson County (Nashville) precincts, while Republican early vote turnout looks to be below their previous winning level benchmarks in most of the outlying counties.

Analysis parallels have been made between this campaign and the special election held last April in Florida’s 6th Congressional District. There, Republican Randy Fine, who represented a state Senate district about 100 miles from the congressional district in which he ran, appeared to be underperforming against educator Josh Weil (D) who spent almost $16 million in the special election campaign. President Trump carried the district in the previous November election with a 65-35 percent margin. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculated the district’s partisan lean at 60.7R – 37.3D.

In the FL-6 special election, despite what was viewed as “widespread Republican panic” occurring over the Fine candidacy, the GOP nominee won the seat with a 56.7 – 42.7 percent margin. While detractors pointed to President Trump’s 65 percent, a comparison to depict the Fine performance in a negative light, turning back to the last time the 6th District was open is likely a better analysis indicator. Such a comparison tells a different story. In the 2018 open election, Republican Mike Waltz’s victory percentage was 56.3, or almost a half-point below Fine’s initial vote total.

The TN-7 district is routinely characterized in media reports as a “deep red” seat. Such was the case in previous redistricting plans, but not today. In the 2011-20 map, for example, the 7th District carried a partisan lean of 66.1R – 31.6D (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations), which certainly qualifies as a “deep red” CD.

Because the 2021 redistricting map added Democratic voters to the 7th to give Republicans a chance to win the adjacent 5th CD, a better depiction of the current TN-7 would be a “reliable” red district (55.1R – 42.2D: Dave’s Redistricting App calculations).

Behn comes from the Ocasio-Cortez/Mamdani wing of the Democratic Party. Her winning would be extraordinary in a Republican district such as TN-7 and will give credence to those who believe the Democrats will easily win the House majority in next year’s midterm elections.

Such a victory tonight would be even more astonishing when understanding that Behn has previously said that she “hates Nashville and the country music scene,” and been forcibly removed from the Governor’s office for protesting. She also said that “men and women can give birth,” and favors transgenderism for children.

Tennessee’s 7th District contains part of the city of Nashville and then stretches west and south to include 11 whole counties and parts of three others. The district encompasses territory from Kentucky to Alabama. In addition to containing part of Nashville, the other major population centers are the cities of Clarksville, from where former Rep. Green hails, and Franklin. (See map at Dave’s Redistricting App.)

The Tennessee situation again dictates that the Republicans must find a better way of motivating what is termed “the casual Trump voter,” that is, the person who will vote when President Trump is on the ballot but is typically not a regular election participant.

In special elections around the country this year, and particularly in the Virginia Governor’s campaign, the Republican turnout was low based upon previous benchmarks. Thus, the GOP turnout mechanism must be more effective in Tennessee if GOP candidate Van Epps is to prevail.

Democrats are riding high with momentum coming from the Nov. 4 elections in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City, and they believe the trend will continue in Tennessee. Van Epps should still be favored to at least win a close special election tonight, but what was heretofore an unlikely upset scenario now appears as a possibility.

Two New Special Elections

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 26, 2025

This is our last update for the week. We’ll take a pause for Thanksgiving and pick up again Monday, Dec. 1. Wishing all a very Happy Thanksgiving!

House

Governors in two states are making moves to calendar elections to fill new congressional vacancies in their states. With Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) resigning her congressional seat to prepare for her swearing in as the Garden State Governor, and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) declaring that she will leave Congress on Jan. 5, two more districts will soon host special elections.

Since this Congress began, we have seen four seats filled in special elections; two more are scheduled, the first on Dec. 2 (TN-7) and the other Jan. 31 (TX-18), and now the Georgia-New Jersey pair open.

Three seats became vacant because the incumbent passed away — Reps. Raul Grijalva (AZ), Sylvester Turner (TX), Gerry Connally (VA); one accepted an appointment from President Trump, Rep. Mike Waltz (FL); three resigned for other opportunities, Reps. Matt Gaetz (FL), Greene (GA), Mark Green (TN); and one, Sherrill, won election to a different office.

NJ-11

Rep. Mikie Sherrill being elected New Jersey Governor on Nov. 4 creates a new vacancy in the Garden State congressional delegation. The 11th District lies in the northern part of the state and is reliably Democratic.

Under previous redistricting plans in the early part of the century, the 11th, which now includes parts of three counties, Essex, Morris, and Passaic, and the population centers of Morristown, Parsippany-Troy Hills, and Gov-Elect Sherrill’s hometown of Montclair, was a Republican district.

The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean for the current NJ-11 shows a 55.6D – 42.5R ratio. Kamala Harris carried the district 53.3 – 44.6 percent. Therefore, the stats show that Gov-Elect Sherrill’s successor will very likely be determined in the special Democratic primary.

Gov. Phil Murphy (D) just announced that the District 11 special partisan primaries will be held on Feb. 5, with the special general scheduled for April 16. Candidates must file right after Thanksgiving, on Dec. 1.

A total of 14 Democrats have announced their candidacies, including former 7th District Congressman Tom Malinowski. In 2022, Malinowski, who saw his district become a touch more Republican in 2021 redistricting largely to make the 11th and now-Sen. Andy Kim’s (D) former 3rd District more Democratic. Then-Rep. Malinowski would lose to current Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) as a result.

Beyond Malinowski, the Democratic field includes former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, five local officials from various townships, and former Obama White House aide Cammie Croft. Only one Republican is in the race, Randolph Town Commissioner and Mayor Joe Hathaway.

GA-14

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Rome) surprise resignation means an ensuing special election will be held in northwest Georgia. Reportedly, sources close to Gov. Brian Kemp (R) say he is leaning toward scheduling a March primary.

Under Georgia election law, when special elections are held all candidates are placed on the same ballot regardless of political party affiliation. If a contender receives majority support in the first election, the individual is elected. If no one reaches such a level, the top two finishers, again regardless of political party affiliation, advance to a runoff election within 28 days of the initial vote.

With an overwhelming Republican partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App: 69.2R – 28.9D), meaning the 14th District is the safest Georgia Republican congressional district, the possibility of two Republicans advancing to the runoff is relatively high.

A total of six state Senate seats and 17 districts in the state House contain part of the 14th CD. Encompassing all or part of 10 counties, a multitude of Republican state and local officials are likely to enter the congressional campaign.

State Senate Majority Leader Jason Anavitarte (R-Doraville) and state Sen. Colton Moore (R-Trenton), who for a time was in this year’s US Senate campaign, are viewed as potentially strong candidates.

The field will form once Rep. Greene resigns after the first of the year and Gov. Kemp officially calls the special election.

More Texas News in the Spotlight:
Latest Senate, Redistricting Updates

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 24, 2025

New polling data was just released in Texas that confirms what many observers have opined about the Lone Star State’s US Senate campaign, and a scathing dissent from one of the three-judge panel members who heard the latest redistricting case could pave the way for a Supreme Court stay.

Senate

Texas state flag

Ragnar Research (Nov. 12-17; 1,000 likely Texas voters; live interview) released a new Texas US Senate poll that supports the common political supposition pertaining to the Lone Star State Senate race. That is, Sen. John Cornyn (R) would lead both 2024 Senate nominee and ex-Congressman Colin Allred (D) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), but Attorney General Ken Paxton would be in danger of losing the general election.

In this poll, Sen. Cornyn leads Allred 47-40 percent and Talarico by a similar 46-40 percent split, both beyond the polling margin of error. As predicted, the two Democrats fare better against Paxton. Allred would lead 44-43 percent, and Rep. Talarico would tie the scandal-tainted AG at 44-44 percent.

The third announced Republican in the race, Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), was not tested, nor was Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) on the Democratic side. Crockett has been leading in other Texas Democratic statewide primary polls but has not yet made a decision about whether to enter the Senate race.

The latest judicial redistricting ruling from the El Paso three-judge panel suggests Rep. Crockett may stay in the House since the 2025 Texas map invalidation restores her 30th Congressional District to its previous boundaries.

According to Ragnar Research partner Chris Perkins, who conducted this poll, wrote “John Cornyn is the strongest candidate for Republicans in a general election, as he has a clear lead. Paxton is statistically tied with either of the Democrat candidates and jeopardizes the ability of Republicans to hold the seat.”

The Texas Senate race is one of the key focal points of the 2026 election cycle. It will be perhaps the only Senate contest that features a contested primary in both parties along with a highly competitive general election.

Redistricting

Fifth District Circuit Judge Jerry E. Smith, a member of the three-judge panel that invalidated the 2025 Texas redistricting map as a racial gerrymander over his objection, published a scathing dissent to the ruling. In his document, Judge Smith referred to lead Judge Jeffrey Brown’s decision as “the most blatant exercise of judicial activism that I have ever witnessed.” Judge Smith stated that he has been a federal judge for 37 years.

The dissent opinion begins by saying that, “the main winners from Judge Brown’s opinion are George Soros and Gavin Newsom. The obvious losers are the People of Texas and the Rule of Law.”

Throughout a 104-page document, Judge Smith details 11 different examples of how ruling that the 2025 Texas map is a racial gerrymander is either “false, misleading, deeply misleading, or deceptive.”

The state of Texas has already appealed, asking that the current ruling be stayed. Appealing a three-judge panel decision goes directly to the US Supreme Court and an official answer must be rendered. The justice assigned to oversee the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, in which Texas resides, is Samuel Alito. The justices have the individual power to issue stays on cases from the circuits in which they oversee.

If Justice Alito were to grant a stay on the Brown panel redistricting ruling, the 2025 map would return as the official Texas map. With candidate filing closing on Dec. 8, a quick ruling on the stay motion is imperative since the two maps are radically different in 11 of Texas’ 38 congressional districts.

Dec. 2 Special Election
Taking Center Stage in Tennessee

Tennessee Congressional Districts (Click on map to see interactive version at: Dave’s Redistricting App.)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 21, 2025

US House

The Dec. 2 special election to fill the Tennessee open congressional seat should be a slam dunk for the Republicans, but new polling data and outside money coming into the district for both sides infer this contest will be closer than expected.

We’ve seen two recent polls, both producing similar ballot test results. The first is from Workbench Strategies for Democratic nominee, state Rep. Aftyn Behn’s campaign (Oct. 15-19; 400 likely TN-7 special election voters), that found Republican former state cabinet secretary Matt Van Epps leading by a 51-41 percent clip.

The second poll, from Impact Research and taken within the same time frame (Oct. 16-19; 700 likely TN-7 special election voters), produced a similar 52-44 percent result in Van Epps’ favor. The polls suggest the race could become closer as the margin between the two candidates are at least slightly under where the Republican nominee should stand at this point in the campaign.

The Volunteer State’s 7th District was changed dramatically in the 2021 redistricting plan. In order to convert the Nashville-anchored 5th District to the Republicans, the 7th CD had to give up GOP territory. Therefore, what was typically a high 60s Republican seat became a high 50s district.

The 7th District from the previous decade carried a partisan lean of 66.1R – 31.6D (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations) when then-Reps. Marsha Blackburn (R) and Mark Green (R) successively held the seat. Blackburn, of course, is now in the Senate and running for Governor. Green resigned from Congress earlier in the year to pursue an opportunity in the private sector, thereby opening the current 7th District for the special election.

The 2021 TN-7 version for the current decade posts a much different partisan lean, again according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. The current numbers yield a 55.1R – 42.2D, or a net Democratic net gain of 21.6 percentage points. This means instead of a Republican candidate finishing near 70 percent, the new numbers would suggest victories in the mid to high 50s.

While the statistics show that a typical Republican candidate should still win easily under the new 7th District boundaries, and so far, they have (President Trump ’24: 60-38%; Rep. Green ’24: 59-38 percent), anything can happen in a low turnout special election. Democrats are riding high with momentum coming from the November 4th elections in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City, and they believe the trend will continue in Tennessee.

The Virginia turnout numbers are telling and could give us an insight into what might happen in Tennessee. The final Virginia numbers actually showed a two percent drop-off in turnout when compared to 2021. The conclusion was Republican election day turnout proved poor, thus leading to the landslide Democratic victory.

The situation again dictates that the Tennessee Republicans will have to find a better way of convincing what is termed “the casual Trump voter” — that is, the person who will vote when President Trump is on the ballot but typically is not a regular voter — to participate in the special election.

While only spending $188,000 to win the special primary in a four-way Democratic field that featured two other state Representatives, Behn eked out a close victory with just 27.9 percent of the vote. The fourth-place finisher garnered 23.1 percent to illustrate how evenly distributed the votes were among contenders.

The situation is different for the special general. Though financial reports past Sept. 30 are not yet available, it is clear that Rep. Behn will have adequate resources to compete.

She can also count on support from left-of-center national organizations coming into the district to independently help her effort, but such is now being countered to a significant degree from at least two organizations on the right, the Club for Growth and an organization entitled Conservatives for American Excellence.

The stakes are now high for this special election in a Republican district. It is one thing for Republicans to lose big in three anti-Trump domains such as New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City. It is quite another if the Democratic nominee prevails in a special election from a strong Republican seat. With early voting now underway, the closing weeks for this campaign will prove quite interesting.

How Texas Changes

To see larger image, click on above map. To see interactive maps, go to Dave’s Redistricting App: Texas 2021 Plan | Texas 2025 Plan

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025

Redistricting

The El Paso three-judge panel ruling that invalidates the new Texas map, if allowed to stand, will greatly disrupt the Lone Star State political cycle as candidates currently prepare for an early March 3, 2026, primary election.

In reverting to the 2021 map, 37 of the state’s 38 congressional districts will change, thus altering virtually all the candidates campaign strategies and geographic targets.

Only District 19, now the open seat of retiring Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Lubbock), remained constant between the two maps. A total of 26 districts experience only minor changes, while 11 see major alterations.

Under the 2025 Texas plan, nine seats are open, but returning to the 2021 map will likely mean that number drops to seven. It is also probable that one member who announced his retirement under the 2025 map, Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin), will return to run again if the 2021 map is formally reinstated.

In the invalidated plan, Reps. Doggett and Greg Casar (D-Austin) were paired in a new 37th District, while Rep. Casar’s 35th CD was created as an open seat that stretched into rural counties east of San Antonio. If the 2021 plan is in place for next year’s election, both will have back their previous districts. Doggett said earlier that he would return to seek re-election if the 2025 map was tossed and the previous plan restored.

In the ’25 draw, a new 9th District was created in eastern Harris County. Should the three-judge panel’s ruling be upheld, this district will go away and the candidates seeking this seat will have no place to run.

Should the previous 9th District return, Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) would again seek re-election in this district and would not be paired in a new 18th CD with the winner of the Jan. 31 special runoff election to fill the vacancy created when Rep. Sylvester Turner (D) passed away.

Rep. Michael McCaul’s (R-Austin) 10th District would still be an open seat, and though the territory is different from the invalidated map, the candidate pool would likely remain the same. This is similar to the situation in the 8th and 21st Districts where Rep. Morgan Luttrell (R-Magnolia) is retiring, and four-term incumbent Chip Roy (R-Austin) passed on re-election to run for state Attorney General.

Turning to South Texas, Rep. Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen) will naturally see a return to her original 15th District configuration. The new 15th would have given her more Republican voters. Still, she should again be able to win re-election in the 2021 version.

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) saw some of the territory that gave him the most trouble go away under the new version of District 28. Rep. Cuellar had two close calls in the Democratic primary largely because of the San Antonio region. The 2025 map moved this district further into South Texas. If the previous districts are reinstated, he may again draw a more combative Democratic primary opponent, while still facing a competitive general election.

One of the districts most affected in South Texas was Rep. Vicente Gonzalez’s (D-McAllen) 34th CD anchored in Brownsville. The Congressman would have been in serious trouble under the new plan, but the 2021 version returns his much stronger Democratic base. Still, his victory margin in 2024 was only 51-49 percent over former Congresswoman Mayra Flores (R), and he can expect to face her again. She would have been favored in the new district, but Rep. Gonzalez returns to having the stronger political position under the 2021 map.

The Dallas area was changed greatly under the 2025 plan. The two members most affected were Reps. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) and Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch). Under the new plan, all of Rep. Veasey’s home Tarrant County turf was moved into different districts, leaving his 33rd CD as a self-contained seat within Dallas County.

Under the new plan, Veasey was looking to leave the House to run for Tarrant County Judge (Executive). If the previous map returns, it is possible that he will seek re-election.

Rep. Johnson, who saw her 32nd District moved largely into Republican East Texas, would return to the previous district under the 2021 plan. She was looking to move into Rep. Veasey’s vacated 33rd District if the new map were in place.

Republicans had calculated a gain of five seats under the new map, though some of the predictions might have been overly optimistic, such as, beating Rep. Cuellar in his new 28th CD and securing the open 35th CD.

If the three-judge panel’s decision holds, it is probable that we will see no Republican gain under the 2021 map thus making the chances of retaining their slim majority even more precarious.