Category Archives: House

Potential Wisconsin Redistricting

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By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 3, 2025

Redistricting

If Wisconsin congressional redistricting occurs later this year as a result of Tuesday’s state Supreme Court election, which current House members will be most affected?

Now that Democrats have won the high court election in the person of Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford (D), expect the new panel members to eventually position themselves to redraw the state’s congressional districts.

Though redistricting is supposed to be completed just once a decade after a decennial census, we have seen many court decisions forcing mid-decade redraws of congressional or state legislative district boundaries. It has now gotten to the point, as it did in the last two Wisconsin state Supreme Court election battles, that some judicial candidates even add the redistricting issue to their campaign agenda.

In the Wisconsin instance, the court will likely rule that the state’s 6R-2D congressional map is a partisan gerrymander. Judge Crawford stated during the campaign that she believes the districts should be redrawn, thus creating two more Democratic seats. Proponents of this line of reasoning suggest that because the statewide vote count is routinely a toss-up in the state, the congressional map should be a reflection of the typical statewide voting trend.

Before the 2024 election, the Wisconsin court, again with a 4-3 Democratic majority, redrew the boundaries of both the state Assembly and Senate using a similar partisan gerrymandering argument. The change resulted in Democrats gaining a net 10 seats in the Assembly and four in the Senate. Though the new map severely altered the partisan complexion, Republicans still maintained their majorities in both houses.

Curiously, the court did not simultaneously change the congressional map as many believed they would. Some analysts surmised that the underlying reason for not redrawing the federal plan was the US Senate race.

At the time of the legislative redraws, it appeared Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin would draw an easy opponent and secure a third term. Yet, if the congressional lines were redrawn, it would have been probable that Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville), who already had well over $3 million in his federal campaign account at the time, would jump into the Senate race if his 1st Congressional District was drawn to elect a Democrat.

If this was the surprising reason for leaving the congressional map untouched, it was likely a prudent partisan move. Ultimately, what appeared at the outset to be a strong run for Baldwin turned into a very tight battle as underestimated candidate Eric Hovde (R) managed to run a viable campaign and came within nine-tenths of one percentage point of unseating the Senator. It is reasonable to believe that an opponent such as Rep. Steil, who would have been taken seriously from the beginning, might have attracted more support than Hovde and won the seat.

With no 2026 Wisconsin Senate race, a federal statewide campaign will not be a factor. The Governor’s office, on the other hand, is on the ballot. Gov. Tony Evers (D) has won two close gubernatorial campaigns and looks to be preparing to run for a third time. Changing the congressional map could force a displaced Congressman to move into the Governor’s race, thus making the incumbent’s re-election path more difficult.

Assuming the court moves forward with a redraw, who will be the likely targets? The answer lies in the southern and western parts of the state where Reps. Steil and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) already hold competitive political districts.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, Rep. Steil’s 1st District has a partisan lean of 49.4R – 48.3D. Rep. Van Orden’s district is similarly tight, though Democrats already have a slight edge on the same partisan lean scale, 48.9D – 48.5R. Businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D), who held Rep. Van Orden to a 51-49 percent victory margin last November has already said that she will return for a 2026 re-match.

To the west of Rep. Steil’s southern 1st District and to the east of Rep. Van Orden’s CD-3, lies the Madison anchored 2nd District of Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Town of Vermont). WI-2’s partisan lean is 69.7D – 28.2R, which means this district could easily shed Democrats to District 3 without endangering Rep. Pocan’s future re-elections.

A similar situation exists in Rep. Steil’s situation. To the north of his district is Rep. Gwen Moore’s (D-Milwaukee) 4th CD. The partisan lean here is 73.6D – 24.2R. This is the state’s coalition minority seat. A combined total of all minorities pushes their Voting Age Population number to 52.9 percent, so there are plenty of Democratic votes that could be transferred to the 1st.

Obviously, more Republican voters from the 1st would be shifted to the 4th, and the same from the 3rd to the 2nd. The map would be more competitive for both Reps. Pocan and Moore, but their districts won’t be changed to the point of making either vulnerable to the point of losing.

The remaining five seats are all heavily Republican, and while Rep. Scott Fitzgerald’s (R-Clyman) 5th CD could be changed as part of the partisan swap among the aforementioned, it probably will continue to remain as a safely Republican seat. It is probable that the state’s northern districts, 6, 7, and 8, those of Reps. Glenn Grothman (R-Glenbeulah), Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua), and Tony Wied (R-De Pere/Green Bay), won’t fundamentally change.

This is only one possible scenario of a redistricting order that could take many forms. Expect Republicans to put up a major fight, and they will have some potential maneuvers in their legal quivers, but the partisan nature of this particular court suggests a new congressional redistricting plan is on the Wisconsin political horizon.

Democrats Win in Wisconsin;
Republicans Take Florida

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Elections

Wisconsin circuit judge Susan Crawford

Wisconsin — In the state Supreme Court regular election in Wisconsin, though nonpartisan on the ballot, Democrat circuit judge Susan Crawford easily defeated Republican former Attorney General Brad Schimel by a 55-45 percent margin to maintain the party’s 4-3 majority on the court. The ramifications of this victory could mean the new court will redraw the state’s congressional map, which would likely lead to a net loss of Republican seats.

The outcome in Wisconsin may be the most significant of all of last night’s election results. The Badger State supported President Donald Trump in the recent 2024 election, but it was the closest of all the swing states, yielding a victory margin of less than one percentage point in the 2024 election. On the other hand, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin was re-elected on that same night by a similarly slim vote spread.

The margin in the state Supreme Court race exceeded the published polls and was greater than expected. Having a clear majority in this hotly contested and expensive campaign will likely embolden the court to venture down a more partisan political path.

Should the Wisconsin high court judges decide to redraw the congressional districts under the partisan gerrymandering argument — before the 2024 election the court redistricted the state Assembly and Senate districts but not the congressional boundaries — the Republicans who would be most endangered appear to be Reps. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien).

Considering the results, it is probable that the Democratic base was more energized than the Republican, and Independents broke toward the Democrats, and significantly so in the Wisconsin situation. We also see further evidence that many Trump voters are only that and cannot necessarily be counted upon to turnout for Republican candidates without the President himself being on the ballot.

Turnout in all of the races last night was high. The Wisconsin turnout, of more than 2.3 million, or two-thirds of the number who voted in the 2024 presidential election, is high. In both of Florida’s congressional races, turnout exceeded 150,000 voters, and almost reached 200,000 in Florida’s 6th District, which is extremely high for special elections.

Florida — Despite what appeared to be the potential of a Democratic upset in Florida’s 6th Congressional District special election, resigned Republican state Sen. Randy Fine last night secured the congressional seat that National Security Advisor Mike Waltz (R) vacated to accept his Trump Administration position.

In the other Florida election, as expected, state CFO Jimmy Patronis held the seat from which former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) resigned. Since the far western Panhandle 1st Congressional District is the safest Republican seat in Florida, it was little surprise that Patronis won. As in FL-6, however, the Democratic nominee, athletic trainer Gay Valimont, outspent the winner. The victory percentages, both in the 57 percent range, were well under President Trump’s performance in both districts.

In the FL-6 seat, while Sen. Fine was being out-raised early by a 10:1 margin, the Republican apparatus expended major resources and increased the early vote operation. The GOP advantage was approximately 10,000 votes when combining the mail and in-person early votes. This gave Fine the cushion he needed to secure the election with voters who cast their ballot at the polls. In the end, Fine would win with a margin of more than 27,000 votes.

While the analysis will claim this is a Republican under-performance victory, it is important to remember that Fine represented — before his resignation under Florida’s resign to run law — a state Senate seat more than 100 miles from the heart of CD-6, with no common constituents between the two districts. Therefore, he began the election with no previously established base.

This, plus having to overcome $10 million-plus in expenditures potentially accounts for a somewhat diminished margin as opposed to voters expressing dissatisfaction with the Trump Administration.

The 1st District is significantly more Republican than the 6th, so in reality the Patronis 57 percent victory is actually a greater underperformance than that of Fine. Here too, however, we see a Republican who does not live in the district being outspent and in this case the Democratic message appears stronger. Valimont was concentrating on services that should be brought to the district, such as a VA hospital, as opposed to Fine’s opponent, educator Josh Weil, who campaigned as an admitted socialist and referred to himself as “a bad-ass teacher.”

Tomorrow’s Elections

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 31, 2025

Elections

Florida state CFO Jimmy Petronis (R)

Important special elections will be held in Florida and Wisconsin tomorrow, and voting in Louisiana on four constitutional amendments this past Saturday did not go the Republican Governor’s way.

At stake tomorrow are two key Sunshine State Republican congressional seats and a crucial state Supreme Court race that will decide the Wisconsin high court majority. The latter election could lead to significant redistricting ramifications for the 2026 campaign cycle.

Florida — In Florida, Republican Jimmy Patronis, the state’s Chief Financial Officer, appears poised to hold the 1st District for the GOP despite being outspent by his Democratic opponent, athletic trainer Gay Valimont.

Patronis does not live in the 1st District for which he is campaigning. This is the CD that former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) resigned at the beginning of the Congress, thus forcing the special election. The Patronis family, however, owns a major restaurant in the Florida Panhandle which increases Jimmy Patronis’ familiarity throughout the region.

Additionally, he has twice been on the ballot in his statewide runs for CFO, carrying the 1st District both times. Furthermore, at R+38 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization and FL-1 ranking as the 39th-safest seat in the Republican Conference according to the Down Ballot statistical blog makes a Democratic upset here extremely unlikely.

Democrats have greater optimism about the 6th District even though 538 rates this seat as R+28 and Down Ballot forecasts it as the 105th-safest GOP district.

The candidate campaign spending imbalance favors the Democratic nominee, educator Josh Weil, by almost a 10:1 ratio, which has put the seat in play. Two polls were conducted at the end of last week, and both show a small spread between the two candidates, with Weil and Republican nominee Randy Fine, a state Senator, each leading in one.

The Fabrizio Lee & Associates firm tested the race but did not publicly release the data. Yet, it is being reported that this survey found Fine trailing Weil by three percentage points. The only fully released survey, from St. Pete Polls (March 22-25; 403 likely FL-6 special election voters; interactive voice response system & text; 38 percent of whom stated they had already voted), projects Fine leading 48-44 percent.

Additionally, Sen. Fine’s district is more than 100 miles from the heart of Congressional District 6, and he represents no carryover constituents in the CD. Republican leaders have been complaining that Fine is a poor fundraiser but moving him into a district where the average Republican voter has never heard of him makes his task all the more difficult.

A Republican loss here would bring potentially disastrous ramifications to the Trump legislative agenda and at least for the short term reverse the GOP’s positive momentum.

Wisconsin — The stakes are also high in Wisconsin where a Supreme Court race could lead to an early redraw of the current congressional district map. Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford (D) and former state Attorney General Brad Schimel (R) are the candidates but will appear on the ballot with no party label.

Spending on both sides has been heavy. Should Crawford win, it is quite possible the court will then order the congressional map redrawn, which could mean the loss of two Republican seats. This would be especially dangerous for the GOP if the court orders special elections to be held after a redraw is complete.

A superintendent of public instruction election is also being conducted. Both candidates are Democrats, but the more conservative of the two has a fundraising advantage and a chance to defeat the incumbent. A ballot initiative to enshrine the state’s voter ID law in the state constitution is also before the electorate’s consideration.

Louisiana — In Louisiana, Gov. Jeff Landry (R) was advocating for four different constitutional amendments that pertained to several subjects including budget, taxes, spending caps, teacher bonuses, juvenile justice, and special elections.

Liberal organizations, largely intent on defeating the amendment that would have increased penalties for juvenile crime, created a “No on All” campaign to sink all four amendment proposals. Some conservative organizations also opposed several of the ballot propositions for other reasons. A major reason for the landslide defeat of all the measures was their complexity. Some analysts believed the lengthy intricacies of the four amendments made them difficult to fully understand, so the safer move was voting “no on all.”

Dems Record Major Dollar Advantage for Florida Specials

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 27, 2025

House

Two special congressional elections will be decided in the Sunshine State on Tuesday, and if fundraising is any indication the Democratic nominees are alive in very red districts.

Florida’s 1st and 6th CDs are vacant due to the resignation of Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) and Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach). Both districts are solidly Republican, especially the 1st.

According to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, FL-1 holds a R+38 rating, the strongest of the 20 Republican held Florida congressional districts. President Donald Trump carried this seat in both 2020 and 2024 with support numbers reaching almost 70 percent. Florida CFO Jimmy Patronis is the Republican nominee and is forced to relinquish his statewide position under the state’s election law in order to run for another office.

The 6th CD, located on the Atlantic Coast and housing the cities of Daytona Beach, De Land, Ormond Beach, and Palm Coast, rates R+28 within the same FiveThirtyEight ranking scale. President Trump, according to The Down Ballot political blog calculations, carried the district with a 65-35 percent margin in November.

The GOP candidate is state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) who attracted endorsements from the entire Republican hierarchy, including President Trump, during the party primary that was decided on Jan. 28.

On paper, these seats should be unassailable for the Democrats, but the party’s candidates in each district have significantly out-raised their respective opponents. In the 1st, Democratic nominee Gay Valimont, an athletic trainer who was the 2024 nominee and who lost to Rep. Gaetz 66-34 percent, collected over $6.6 million through the Federal Election Commission disclosure period ending March 12. This compares with Patronis’s just under $2.2 million in receipts through the same time frame.

The more troubling spot for the GOP is likely the 6th District where the party nominee, Sen. Fine, represents a 19th state Senate District that is over 100 miles from the geographic heart of the 6th CD and has zero crossover population. The Republican leadership, including President Trump, was able to virtually clear the primary field for Fine, but his local contacts are obviously weak since he is a largely unknown political figure in the region.

For his part, Democrat Josh Weil, who bills himself as a “bad-ass teacher” in his ads, had raised $9.4 million through March 12 as compared to Fine’s $987,000 over the same period. Outside Republican and right-of-center organizations have added over $2 million in expenditures to help neutralize the Democratic spending advantage.

While the campaign financial numbers are imbalanced, the key to the Republican strategy is turnout since the party enjoys large advantages in voter registration (55 to 21 percent over the Democrats in the 1st and 49 to 25 percent in the 6th) and electoral history. Currently, early and mail voting is underway. For the November general election, 71 percent of voters in the 1st District voted before election day, as did 73 percent of 6th District registrants.

In the special election, 51,020 individuals cast a ballot in the special 1st District Republican primary which represents just 13 percent of the total participation number recorded in the 2024 general election. Because Valimont was unopposed in the special Democratic primary, no election was held, and she was therefore declared the party nominee.

Turning to the 6th District, just 40,811 people voted in the special Jan. 28 Republican primary and 15,986 for the Democrats meaning a total participation number of 56,797 or just over 13 percent of the general election total turnout figure.

Therefore, while the Republican turnout was much larger than the Democratic participation factor, the GOP will need to increase their voter turnout rate to a greater degree for the April 1 special general to compensate for the significant resource imbalance that will be used to maximize Democrat and Independent participation.

Though the Democrats have gotten a fundraising boost in these special elections, the overwhelming voter registration figures and electoral history still gives the Republicans huge advantages that will likely carry their nominees to victory in both seats.

Should we see the most improbable of Democratic upsets, and such happening in the 6th District is more probable than with the 1st, political reverberations would be nationally felt and might prove a linchpin in derailing the Trump agenda, not to mention reducing the already slim House GOP majority margin. Thus, the stakes for Republicans in Tuesday’s special elections are becoming extremely high.

US Supreme Court Hears
Louisiana Redistricting Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 26, 2025

House

The US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) heard oral arguments Monday over the Louisiana redistricting process that led to the state hosting two Black districts, but the decade’s final map is yet to be decided.

So far, the process has led to the revival of a congressional district that was declared unconstitutional in 1994, which is a seat stretching all the way from Baton Rouge to Shreveport, which effectively cuts through the middle of House Speaker Mike Johnson’s 4th District.

Ironically, the member negatively affected when the seat was declared unconstitutional 30-plus years ago was then-Rep. Cleo Fields (D), who is also the beneficiary of the current draw. Fields, after serving two terms in the House, would later be elected to the state Senate, a body in which he served prior to his election to Congress. Once the same previously rejected congressional district configuration returned to the Louisiana map in 2023, it was again Fields who would run for the re-created 6th District and once more enter the US House of Representatives.

When the original 2021 congressional map was adopted, the partisan division again favored the GOP by a 5-1 count. Democratic plaintiffs went to a favorable federal district court in Baton Rouge to file their case, and Middle District Chief Judge Shelly Dick, an appointee of President Barack Obama, as predicted, ruled in their favor. The map was returned to the legislature for a redraw with the instruction to craft a second Black district. The new map forced then-Rep. Garret Graves (R) to retire, which virtually assured Fields of returning to Congress.

Republicans then filed a constitutional challenge to the new 6th District, citing the court’s rejection of such a draw in 1994, and a three-judge federal panel constituted to hear the case ruled in favor of the GOP plaintiffs and declared the map a gerrymander, just as was determined 30 years earlier.

The ruling was then sent to the Supreme Court where a summary affirmation of the lower court ruling was expected. In a surprise pre-election ruling, however, the high court stayed the case with the six Republican justices voting in favor of the stay and the three Democrats opposing. The stay cost the Republicans a seat, and almost the party’s small majority.

Monday’s hearing featured a long, very active, and at times intense session with even Justice Elena Kagan jumping in to answer a question from Justice Sam Alito before the presenting attorney could answer, and Justice Brett Kavanaugh asking whether the time had come to “sunset the Voting Rights Act.”

Unless the court now decides to summarily affirm the three-judge panel ruling, which they can still do, we can expect a final decision on this case at the end of the session in June. Regardless of how the court rules, it will affect the 2026 congressional elections and also the House majority because of the slim 220-215 eventual edge the Republicans will likely hold once the vacancies are filled barring any special election upsets.

If the court rules in favor of the current state map, Democrats will hold their second seat in the Louisiana delegation. If the high court ultimately upholds the three-judge panel ruling, then the state’s plan will become void and the map would return to the panel for a redraw, assuming the legislature does not step in and issue an alternative congressional plan.

Should the legislature not take action, and it’s unlikely they will be in session when SCOTUS decides the case, the three-judge panel will draw a new map, which will probably lead to a GOP gain of one seat. Such a move would likely return the delegation to a 5R-1D split along with returning Speaker Johnson to a more compact and undivided district.

Once again, Louisiana is in the forefront of a redistricting drama battle. It remains to be seen how this chapter ultimately ends.

Rep. Higgins Won’t Run for Senate

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 24, 2025

Senate

Louisiana Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette) / Photo by Joshua Sukoff

Five-term Louisiana Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette) announced late last week that he will not challenge Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) in the state’s new partisan primary system scheduled to take effect next year.

While saying he believes Sen. Cassidy can be beaten in the ensuing Republican primary, Rep. Higgins indicated that he can better serve his country and party by continuing his career in the US House.

Higgins said, “Now, it is my considered determination that, current engagement in the House being incredibly significant, it may be ultimately more beneficial to the Republic that I remain in service to the MAGA America First agenda as a senior Republican in the House of Representatives,” according to a news report on The Washington Times news site.

The Congressman also cited his close relationship with the chamber’s top leaders, Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise both from Louisiana, as another benefit to remaining in the House. Higgins is also chairman of the Border Security and Enforcement Subcommittee of the House Homeland Security Committee, which he states is another strong reason to continue his current career.

The one published Louisiana Senate poll was released at the end of February, from the JMC Analytics & Polling, a Louisiana based survey research entity.

According to the JMC results at the time (Feb. 26-28; 600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters), State Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming, an announced Senate candidate, posts a 40-27 percent lead over Sen. Cassidy in a head-to-head pairing. When other potential candidates, state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia) and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta, are added to the ballot test questionnaire, Fleming leads Cassidy 29-27 percent with the remaining individuals receiving respective six and two percent preference figures.

This is the first time Sen. Cassidy will face a partisan Republican primary. Last year, the state legislature, at the behest of Gov. Jeff Landry (R), changed the state law to reinstitute a partisan primary structure for certain offices, including all federal positions. Previously, all candidates were listed only on the general election ballot. If no one received majority support in a particular race, a runoff election between the top two finishers was held during the first week in December.

Critics of the previous system argued, especially for freshman federal office holders, that they were starting at a disadvantage in Washington since they were still campaigning when the rest of the new members were going through orientation. Additionally, they were ineligible to run for party leadership posts nor present at the critical time to lobby for coveted committee slots.

The new closed partisan primary where only registered party members are eligible to vote is scheduled for April 18, 2026. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers advance to a May 30 secondary election.

Sen. Cassidy’s biggest negative, of which he will be reminded of many times during the primary campaign, is that he voted to impeach President Donald Trump at the end of the latter’s first term. He was also questioning a couple of the Trump cabinet appointees, in particular HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., but in the end voted in favor of all.

While a Trump endorsement for a Republican primary candidate is a major positive in crowded fields, it will likely be an even more important factor in this Louisiana Senate primary. Should the President endorse a candidate other than Sen. Cassidy, the incumbent could quickly become the underdog.

In the new primary configuration, it is likely the most conservative and pro-Trump supporters would dominate the voting bloc, a group where Sen. Cassidy could show weakness. Another negative for the incumbent may be the size of the candidate field. If more contenders enter the race, which is expected, the chances of Sen. Cassidy being forced to a runoff increase.

The runoff history of incumbents is not particularly favorable. Already, a majority of the primary voters would have chosen another candidate, thus giving the incumbent a smaller base from which to start. He or she must then convince a significant percentage of voters who supported a challenger in the first vote to return to his or her fold in the runoff election. Certainly, incumbents have recovered to win runoffs, but the typical outcome leans toward an incumbent loss.

The Louisiana race, along with the likely Republican primary challenge to Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), will be a closely monitored nomination battle as the election cycle matures.

California Dreamin’

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 21, 2025

Governor

Ric Grenell

An article from the News of the United States (NOTUS) organization published earlier in the week sheds some new light about a potential 2026 Governor’s race in California.
In fact, the article includes comments from several of the state’s GOP House members stating their belief that Republican Ric Grenell might have an outside chance of denying Kamala Harris the office if both choose to run next year.

Grenell is a Trump Administration official who is currently a special envoy along with serving as president and interim executive director of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts. Previously, in the first Trump Administration, Grenell was the US Ambassador to Germany and served as the Acting Director of National Intelligence. He has indicated that if Harris were to enter the race, running for Governor of California would be of interest to him.

“I think that we’ve got a good opportunity here because especially if Kamala Harris runs, I think that this will be a race that is very winnable,” says Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento). “I think that there very much is a coalition of Californians who would support a candidate who can deliver on that basic quality of life.”

Rep. Kiley is likely too optimistic. While President Donald Trump substantially improved his political standing within California, Kamala Harris still recorded a 58.5 – 38.3 percent statewide victory. In 2020, Joe Biden’s victory spread over Trump was 63.5 – 34.3 percent.

In 2020, Trump won 23 of California’s 58 counties. In 2024, he performed much better, actually winning a majority of the state’s counties (33 of 58). His problem: in the top 10 most populous counties, Trump prevailed in only three.

Of the top three population counties, Los Angeles, San Diego, and Orange, which account for 40 percent of the total California population, Trump was only able to average 39.7 percent of the vote. While this number is slightly better than his statewide percentage, the major liberal northern California counties of San Francisco, Alameda, San Mateo, Marin, and Santa Clara are not included in the top three most populous. Here, the current President averaged only 20.9 percent.

In 2020, Trump’s average numbers in the three largest counties were even worse: 36.3 percent. In the five sizable northern California counties, he posted a woeful mean average vote percentage of just 18.3.

While the chances of Grenell, or any other Republican, winning the Governorship in 2026 are virtually nil, Trump did increase his standing when compared to 2020 in 57 counties, which is an encouraging number for the GOP. Harris also under-performed President Joe Biden’s California vote totals in all but one county.

While the general election may be out of reach for a Republican, advancing from the state’s jungle primary apparatus is not.

Former Congresswoman Katie Porter (D) has already announced that she will run for Governor. While earlier saying she would stand aside for Harris, her announcement tour made no such declaration. Therefore, if she and Harris are on the all-party ballot with a Republican such as Grenell, it certainly would be within the realm of possibility to see either Porter or Harris not qualify for the general election. Under such a scenario, the primary voters would virtually elect the next Governor.

The other California Republican problem is the large amount of money needed to compete. Former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) was able to advance into the 2024 Senate general election largely because eventual winner Adam Schiff (D) ran ads in the more conservative regions of the state attacking Garvey as being too conservative and close to Trump.

Knowing that he would beat Garvey, or any other Republican in the general election, Schiff virtually financed Garvey’s campaign effort to propel him past Porter, who at that time was also running for Senate.

It is unlikely that we will see such a scenario in 2026. Therefore, Republicans will be forced to raise a large amount of early money to help secure a general election slot and then hope that the political environment would be such that a GOP candidate could score a long-shot win. With so many Senate races in play during this election cycle, it will be a tough sell to convince national major donors to back a Republican gubernatorial contender.

While Grenell may be one of the better candidates that California Republicans could attract, his chances of winning are likely far less than those beginning to promote him would publicly concede.