Category Archives: Election Analysis

A Senate Review – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Senate

Today concludes our two-part series covering the latest in competitive US Senate campaigns. This edition examines developing contests in Michigan through Virginia.

In this report, if a state is not listed, it means the incumbent is currently expected to seek re-election and face little in the way of credible opposition.

Michigan — The 2024 open Senate contest surprisingly proved to be the tightest in the nation, so a second open contest in successive election cycles will draw much greater early national attention and resources. Republican former Congressman Mike Rogers, despite being badly outspent, lost to then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) by just 19,006 votes statewide. He returns to again battle for a Senate seat; this time left open because Sen. Gary Peters (D) is retiring.

Rogers should be a clear favorite for the Republican nomination, though Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) says he is considering entering the race. For the Democrats, Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) are announced candidates. Term-limited Attorney General Dana Nessel is also a potential Democratic candidate. Count on this race being considered a toss-up all the way through the Nov. 4, 2026, election day.

Minnesota — Sen. Tina Smith (D) is not seeking a second six-year term, which opens the door for a highly competitive Democratic primary. In the race are Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), and former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen. Others may join but count on this race advancing through the party endorsing convention to the August primary ballot.

Republicans, at this point, do not have a credible announced candidate, which means it is highly likely that Sen. Smith’s successor will be the Democratic primary winner.

New Hampshire — Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) will retire at the end of the current Congress, and Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is well on his way to becoming a consensus Democratic candidate long before next year’s candidate filing deadline. Already publicly endorsing Pappas are a host of New Hampshire Democratic leaders including Sen. Shaheen, the state’s junior Senator, Maggie Hassan, Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua), former four-term Gov. John Lynch, and ex-Rep. Annie Kuster.

Republicans lost their best candidate option when former four-term Gov. Chris Sununu declined to run. Ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who lost to Sen. Shaheen in 2014 on a 51-48 percent count, looks to be running again and could well win the nomination. Without Sununu in the race, however, the edge goes to the Democrats particularly with Rep. Pappas performing so well early.

North Carolina — This is yet another situation where party leaders are trying to convince a sitting or former Governor to challenge the opposite party’s incumbent Senator. Ex-Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who was ineligible to seek a third term in 2024 under his state’s election law, remains uncommitted about challenging Sen. Thom Tillis (R).

In the race for the Democrats, however, is former Rep. Wiley Nickel who did not seek re-election to a second term in 2024 because of an adverse redistricting map. Originally, Nickel said he would stand aside for Cooper but does not appear to be saying such any longer. This could be a clue that the former Governor will not run for Senate to instead prepare for a 2028 presidential campaign.

The nature of North Carolina politics suggests that the 2026 Senate race will again be close irrespective of whose running. The state traditionally features tight statewide elections in almost every cycle. Consider this race a toss-up, particularly if Cooper decides to run, though former Congressman Nickel will prove an able candidate.

Ohio — As in Florida, Ohio will host a special election to fill the balance of a current Senate term. After then-Sen. J.D. Vance was elected Vice President, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) appointed Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) to the Senate seat. Husted now must run in 2026 to fill the balance of the six-year term, and then again in 2028 for a full six-year stint.

Last week, former Representative and 2022 US Senate nominee Tim Ryan (D) announced he would not challenge Sen. Husted but still expresses interest in the Governor’s race.

Ohio is another state where potential candidates, in this case Democrats, are frozen in time waiting for a decision from another. Former three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who lost his seat to Bernie Moreno (R) in November, is a potential candidate for both Senate and Governor. Until Brown decides where to run, if anywhere at all, expect little movement among other prospective Democratic candidates.

South Carolina — Talk of a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham has died down since both Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) are looking toward an open Governor’s race. Sen. Graham showing almost $16 million in his campaign account also is dissuading potential challengers from both parties. At this point, expect Sen. Graham to have an easy road to re-election.

South Dakota — Recently, Sen. Mike Rounds (R) stated that he would not enter the open Governor’s race which would be an attempt to regain a political position he once held. Curiously, he did not announce a bid for re-election in declining to run for Governor.

Rounds is still expected to stand for election to the Senate in 2026, and with his state featuring a Governor’s race that could yield a major Republican primary battle, the two-term federal incumbent is expected to breeze through another re-election next year.

Texas — Several recent polls show incumbent Sen. John Cornyn badly trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is an announced Republican primary competitor. The polling, however, is not the full story.

A non-profit organization, Standing for Texas, is running ads in the major media markets with the exception of Rep. Wesley Hunt’s (R) hometown of Houston, positively profiling the Congressman and clearly laying the groundwork for a statewide run. Curiously, however, the latest polls do not include Rep. Hunt as a Senate candidate, even though signs are clear that he intends to enter the contest. The addition of Rep. Hunt, and/or other candidates, could certainly change the campaign trajectory.

Sen. Cornyn’s problem is that large numbers within the Texas GOP base believe him to be a RINO (Republican In Name Only) because he has strayed from the typical party position on several issues. A fair characterization or not, it is clear that Sen. Cornyn will have to neutralize this image in order to forge a winning coalition.

On the Democratic side, no major candidate has yet come forth but 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred, now a former Congressman, confirms he is considering returning for a 2026 campaign. Ex-Congressman and failed presidential, Senate, and gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke says he is not “closing the door” on entering the Senate race. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) is another possibility as is astronaut Terry Verts.

It appears we will see a great deal of early action from candidates in both parties for the Texas Senate race. The party primaries are scheduled for March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate secures majority support. Regardless of the outcome of each nomination contest, expect the Texas Senate campaign cycle to yield a tough and close months-long campaign.

Virginia — Sen. Mark Warner (D) is on the ballot for a fourth term, and unless Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) decides to challenge him, the Democratic incumbent should have little trouble again winning re-election. If the Governor does run, the contest will prove close, but the Senator would still be rated as at least a slight favorite to win the general election.

Gov. Youngkin is another of the state chief executives said to have presidential aspirations, so it remains to be seen if he is looking toward launching a national campaign, running for the Senate, or simply retiring from elective politics. Virginia is the only state in the country that limits its Governors to one term, so Youngkin’s future political options are narrow.

A Senate Review – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 6, 2025

Senate

Already we’ve seen a great deal of jockeying for political position in 2026 Senate races. Today and tomorrow, we will review the 18 Senate races where significant action is occurring.

This edition looks at the situations in Alabama through Maine. Tomorrow, Michigan through Virginia. If a state is not mentioned, it means the incumbent is seeking re-election and, at this early point in the election cycle, has no serious competition.

Alabama — Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) will reportedly soon announce that he will eschew a second term in the Senate to enter the open Alabama Governor’s race. Once Tuberville makes his plans official, others will finalize their own plans. Expect a crowded open Republican Senate primary with the winner having the inside track to carrying the seat in the general election.

Florida — Sen. Ashley Moody (R), the former Florida Attorney General who was appointed to replace Sen. Marco Rubio when he resigned to become US Secretary of State, must run to fill the balance of the term in 2026. So far, several people have announced their candidacies, but all should be considered minor candidates in both parties. The biggest name in the field is former Congressman Alan Grayson (D), but his attempts to return to public office after spending three non-consecutive terms in the House have not gone well.

Unless the quality of candidates improves, Sen. Moody should have little trouble retaining her seat. It is probable, however, that credible competition will emerge. At this time, appointed Sen. Moody must be considered a clear favorite to win next year.

Georgia — The Peach State is one of several places where a term-limited or recently retired Governor could run for the Senate. Most of the Governors in this category, however, have their eyes on the Presidency in 2028. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is a state chief executive with rumored presidential aspirations but leads the Senate Democratic incumbent in early polling.

However, yesterday’s announcement that Gov. Kemp will not run for the Senate certainly changes the political picture, and we will devote a column to that evolving campaign after our Senate Review, Part II is published. With Kemp now not running for Senate, at least four US House members are expressing interest. They are: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Margorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). Without Kemp in the race, Sen. Ossoff establishes a polling lead against all other potential Republican nominees.

Idaho — Just turning 82 years of age, rumors swirled that three-term Sen. Jim Risch (R) would retire. Recently, however, Risch announced that he will seek a fourth term and appears to be a lock to win both the Republican primary and general election.

Illinois — Sen. Dick Durbin (D) is retiring, and the meaningful action will occur in the March 2026 Democratic primary. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D), armed with public support from Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), is an announced candidate. She could, however, face as many as three members of the Illinois congressional delegation in the Democratic primary: Reps. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumberg), and Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville).

The Illinois primary is scheduled early in the election cycle on March 17, so this race will begin immediately. The eventual Democratic nominee will be a lock to win the general election.

Iowa — The big early winner from Gov. Kim Reynolds’ (R) decision not to seek a third term could well be Sen. Joni Ernst (R). An open, competitive race for Governor is now likely to capture the attention of those who originally considered challenging the Senator.

Iowa’s only elected Democratic statewide official, State Auditor Rob Sand, appears headed into the Governor’s race and is no longer contemplating challenging Sen. Ernst. Former state legislator Jim Carlin is an announced Republican candidate against Ernst, along with two minor candidates. Nathan Sage, a local Chamber of Commerce executive and former sports announcer is a declared Senate candidate on the Democratic side.

With the Hawkeye State Democrats having a short political bench, expect the credible potential Ernst challengers to head for the Governor’s race.

Kentucky — This is another state where a Governor with presidential aspirations could be a major contender for an open Senate seat. Incumbent Mitch McConnell (R) is not running for an eighth term, but two-term Governor Andy Beshear would give the Democrats a major candidate and is clearly the best choice of any party member to convert the seat. Republican former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and US Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) are the announced GOP candidates.

If Gov. Beshear runs for the Senate, this becomes a top national Senate battle. If he does not, the eventual Republican nominee will punch his ticket to the Senate.

Louisiana — The Bayou State is one place where a Republican Senator has a bigger challenge winning renomination than re-election. Louisiana has returned to a partisan primary structure, eschewing their jungle nominating system for federal campaigns and some other offices. Therefore, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), who voted in favor of impeaching President Trump as he was leaving office at the end of 2020, will certainly face competition from his political right.

State Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming (R), announced his candidacy months ago and will be a major contender. Others, potentially Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) or former Congressman Garret Graves, could also join the Senate campaign. Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette) stated earlier that he will remain in the House.

Regardless of the eventual mix of Republican candidates, Sen. Cassidy faces a real prospect of being forced into a runoff, which could lead to a renomination defeat. Democrats are attempting to convince former Gov. John Bel Edwards to run for the Senate, but so far their overtures have not been successful.

Maine — In 2020, Sen. Susan Collins (R) was one of the Democrats’ chief national targets, and their candidate, then state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D), and allied Super PACs spent records sums of money in a small state.

Polling suggested the Senator would lose, but in the end Collins repelled the massive charge and won by almost nine percentage points.

Sen. Collins announced early in the ’26 cycle that she would run for a sixth term, thus extinguishing retirement rumors. The veteran incumbent will no doubt be a Democratic conversion target again next year, but the fervor to defeat her appears to be less in this cycle.

Democrats hope to recruit term-limited 78-year-old Gov. Janet Mills into the Senate race, but so far she has not accepted the challenge. The party will field a credible candidate irrespective of Gov. Mills’ ultimate decision but, in the election cycle’s early phase, Sen. Collins must be rated as at the very least a slight favorite to win re-election and once again overcome Maine’s reliably Democratic voting patterns.

Again, Cornyn Trails

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 5, 2025

Senate

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R)

The Houston Chronicle has published a story about a new poll that Trump 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale released to an HC reporter about the upcoming Texas Senate Republican primary.

The ballot test again shows incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) badly trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is an announced primary competitor. Parscale was a consultant for Paxton’s 2022 successful re-election campaign.

The survey release includes sketchy methodological information, however. The firm conducting the poll is not identified and the sampling period is listed as only “mid-April.” The respondent universe consists of 605 “voters.” It is also unclear whether the respondents were questioned through live interview, an interactive voice response system, text, or online website.

In any event, the ballot test finds Paxton leading Sen. Cornyn, 50-33 percent. Even if President Trump were to endorse Sen. Cornyn, the incumbent still does not forge ahead, though this poll shows he would close to within a 44-38 percent deficit. While the spreads seem head scratching, they are in relative concurrence with other released polls of the race, even one conducted as far back as 2022.

In early March, Lake Research Associates, a Democratic firm, polled the Texas Republican electorate and found Paxton topping Cornyn, 38-27 percent. In early February, the Fabrizio Lee & Associates firm released their results that are similar to the Parscale poll’s current figures, 53-28 percent. Victory Insights January poll found a 42-34 percent Paxton lead. The 2022 reference was from a CWS Research survey taken in early July of that year. The then-hypothetical Cornyn-Paxton ballot test yielded a 51-31 percent advantage for Paxton.

The obvious common theme is that Sen. Cornyn trails in every publicly released survey over a long period. The polling, however, is not the full story.

Paxton, however, is a flawed candidate. He was impeached in the Republican state House of Representatives in 2023 but not convicted in a trial before the state Senate. Yet, the proceeding brought to the forefront bribery accusations and the acknowledgment of an extra-marital affair. Therefore, Paxton would be an easy target for the eventual Democratic nominee in a general election.

Another Paxton problem could be fundraising. A great deal of his state campaign resources come from large donations, which are legal under Texas election law. Raising money for a statewide race in the nation’s second largest domain in increments not to exceed $3,500 for the nomination election means Paxton will have a harder time raising the funds necessary to run a strong primary campaign.

Both Sen. Cornyn and Rep. Hunt have obviously raised sizable amounts under the federal guidelines. The current Federal Election Commission disclosure reports find Sen. Cornyn holding almost $5.6 million in his campaign account, while Rep. Hunt has over $2.8 million. Paxton did not file a first quarter report because he was not yet an official candidate.

On the Democratic side, no major candidate has yet come forth but 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred, now a former Congressman, confirms he is considering returning for a 2026 campaign. Former Congressman and failed presidential, US Senate, and gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke says he is not “closing the door” on entering the Senate race. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) is another possibility as is astronaut Terry Verts.

It appears we will see a great deal of early action from candidates in both parties for the Texas Senate race. The party primaries are scheduled for March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate secures majority support. Regardless of the outcome of each nomination contest, we can expect the Texas Senate campaign cycle to yield a tough and close months-long campaign.

Democratic Rep. Sherrill Leads
In New Jersey Governor Polls

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 2, 2025

Governor

New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D)

The open 2025 New Jersey Governor’s race could have a direct effect upon the US House of Representatives.

Both Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) and Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) are battling for their party’s statewide nomination. If either wins the primary and subsequent general election, another Democratic vacancy will occur in the House thus forcing a special election to be called.

A series of recent New Jersey gubernatorial polls find Rep. Sherrill leading a crowded open Democratic field, but her advantage is small. Three polls have been released in the immediate past with noted Democratic pollster Global Strategy Group in the unusual situation of conducting surveys for two candidates (Gottheimer and Sherrill) in the same race.

The most recent statewide poll, from New Jersey’s Rutgers University (released April 25; conducted April 1-10; 966 registered New Jersey voters; 556 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters; online), sees Rep. Sherrill leading her Democratic opponents 17-12-10-9-9-7 percent against Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Montclair Mayor and New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller, Rep. Gottheimer, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney, respectively.

This result does not greatly differ from the Global Strategy Group survey for the Gottheimer campaign. That poll (April 1-3; 900 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters) showed a more tightly bunched field but with Sherrill continuing to place first. In this result, Sherrill edge is 19-14-13-11-11-5 percent over Gottheimer, Fulop, Baraka, Spiller, and Sweeney.

The Sherrill campaign conducted its Global Strategy Group survey just after the Gottheimer study was completed. The results (April 6-8; 600 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters) differed significantly from the other published results and are distinctly different from their own poll for Rep. Gottheimer conducted just days before.

According to the GSG poll for the Sherrill campaign, their candidate leads 25-15-13-13-12-6 percent, over Rep. Gottheimer, Mayors Fulop and Baraka, Spiller, and former Sen. Sweeney. A bit surprisingly, the Sherrill and Gottheimer surveys, again with the same research firm conducting both studies and just days apart, arrive at substantially different results.

While Sherrill consistently leads, her margins can certainly be overcome especially since she has topped 20 percent in only her own internal poll. On the other hand, the Congresswoman has spent less in terms of advertising dollars than her major opponents to date but still maintains a consistent edge.

The New Jersey primary is scheduled for June 10, so this campaign will hit its full stride soon. As is the case in virtually all crowded primaries, whichever candidate has the most fervent support and the best organization to turn out their vote typically wins.

As mentioned above, should either Reps. Sherrill or Gottheimer advance to the general election and defeat likely GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, the former state legislator who held Gov. Phil Murphy (D) to a close win in 2021, the Democrats would be down another House vote for several months until a special election can be conducted.

Both the Gottheimer and Sherrill seats could become competitive in a special election. Gottheimer’s 5th CD and Sherrill’s 11th District both lie in northern New Jersey and share a common border.

The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculations find Democrats holding the advantage, 53.0D – 45.3R in the 5th, and 54.7D – 43.7R in the 11th, so either district in an open situation would potentially be in play during a special election campaign.

Minnesota Rep. Angie Craig
Announces for Senate

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 1, 2025

Senate

Minnesota Rep. Angie Craig

Though she had been somewhat circumspect about her future political intentions, Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) formally announced that she will compete for her party’s nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D).

Craig will battle Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen, and likely several others for the Democratic Senate nomination.

It is probable that this contest will follow through to the party primary scheduled for August. Minnesota holds statewide endorsing conventions and though the results are not binding, a candidate forcing a primary after losing a delegate vote is relatively rare. Considering the race’s importance, it is hard to see the 2026 Democratic Senate contest ending at the convention, however.

Angie Craig was elected to the House in 2018 after losing to Republican Jason Lewis in a 2016 open election. She then won a tight re-election in 2020 but has expanded her victory margins in the past two general elections. She is clearly a liberal candidate but has developed a voting record closer to the center when compared with Flanagan, who has positioned herself decidedly on the left.

In her announcement address, Craig certainly drew battle lines with the Trump Administration, so expect the pre-general election rhetoric to become extreme. The November election approach should then pivot closer to the center remembering that President Trump came within just over four percentage points of outpacing former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 Minnesota campaign, while the Hillary Clinton margin over Trump in 2016 was only three points.

The Congresswoman certainly begins this contest with the largest campaign war chest among the announced candidates. Able to transfer all of her House committee funds to a Senate campaign, Rep. Craig starts with a hefty $1.07 million in her account, surpassing Lt. Gov. Flanagan’s $370,000 and Franzen’s $250,000.

Since Rep. Craig is risking her 2nd District House seat, we can expect to see a very lively general election campaign with candidates doing battle in what will now become the 11th open House seat to date.

Craig has averaged 50.5 percent of the vote during her five 2nd District campaigns (4 wins and 1 loss), with a low of 45.2 percent in 2016 to a high of 55.5 percent last November. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a MN-2 partisan lean of 50.3D – 44.4R. The demographic segmentation shows a voting age White population figure of 79 percent, with Hispanics, Asians, and Blacks all individually in the six percent range.

Conversely, The Down Ballot political blog pundits rank the 2nd District as the 14th most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference.

Minnesota’s 2nd District lies south and west of the Twin Cities. Over 60 percent of the population resides in Dakota County, which is fully contained within District 2. The seat also contains Le Sueur and Scott counties, and parts of the Rice and Washington local entities. The largest population centers are the cities of Eagan, Burnsville, Shakopee, and Cottage Grove.

The presidential election broke almost exactly as Dave’s Redistricting App’s partisan lean projected. In 2020, then-former Vice President Joe Biden defeated then-President Trump, 52.5 – 45.4 percent. Trump improved slightly in 2024, losing to Harris, 51.9 – 46.1 percent.

With the Craig Senate campaign becoming official, we will soon see maneuvering in both parties to develop 2nd District congressional campaigns. Expect competition in both primaries at least through the endorsing convention process, while the general election is expected to draw some national attention.

Though the partisan numbers appear relatively close, the eventual Democratic nominee will be viewed as the favorite to keep the seat in the party’s column, but a credible Republican should not be completely dismissed.

Rep. Gerry Connolly to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 30, 2025

House

Virginia Congressman Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) / Photo by TEDx GeorgeMasonU, Flickr

Veteran Virginia Congressman Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) announced that he will not seek re-election in 2026 and will “shortly” resign his position as Ranking Minority Member of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

Connolly indicated in a written statement that the cancer he is fighting has returned after what originally proved to be a more favorable treatment response. Rep. Connolly, 75, was the former chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors until his initial election to the US House in 2008; he defeated Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) at the beginning of the current Congress to win his ranking committee position.

Upon his official resignation from the committee leadership position, the Democratic Conference will choose a replacement. Rep. Ocasio-Cortez is no longer a committee member. Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC) is the most senior Democrat on the committee followed by Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA).

Rep. Connolly’s 11th Congressional District, fully contained in northern Virginia’s Fairfax County along with Fairfax City, is safely Democratic. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 67.2D – 30.7R partisan lean. President Joe Biden carried the district in 2020, obtaining 70.0 percent of the vote against Donald Trump’s 28.7 percent. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won the 11th District with a 65.7 – 31.4 percent margin four years later.

Over his nine elections to the House, Rep. Connolly has averaged a 65.1 win percentage. He had a close call in 2010 when his re-election figure dropped to a plurality 49.2 percent, winning by just 981 votes.

Though Republicans might field a credible candidate next year, the eventual Democratic nominee will be the clear favorite to hold the seat in November. Currently, the Virginia delegation features six Democrats and five Republicans, with all northern Virginia constituencies (Districts 7 [Rep. Eugene Vindman], 8 [Rep. Don Beyer], 10 [Rep. Suhas Subramanyam), and 11 ) electing Democrats.

Count on several state Senators and Delegates to run for the seat, along certain members of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. Two potential candidates would be Fairfax County Board of Supervisors chairman Jeff McKay (D), and state Delegate Dan Helmer (D-Clifton), who has been a frequent candidate. Helmer has twice run for the 10th District but could easily run in the 11th. Both men would be formidable contenders.

The 11th District contains the communities of Centreville, Herndon, Lorton, Reston, and Springfield. The demographic composition features a diverse voting age population that totals 51.2 percent White, 25.4 percent Asian, 12.8 percent Hispanic, and 9.4 percent Black.

VA-11 will be the ninth open seat to date headed into the next election, and Democrats currently hold five. Two of the Democratic opens are due to the deaths of Reps. Sylvester Turner (D-TX) and Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), so their seats will be filled in upcoming special elections.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has called the Turner replacement election in Houston’s 18th CD concurrently with the state’s municipal election calendar, meaning Nov. 4, 2025. If no candidate receives majority support, the Governor will schedule a runoff election between the top two finishers for a later date. The district electorate voting pattern is overwhelmingly Democratic.

At this early point in the special election cycle, the leading TX-18 contenders appear as Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D).

Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) scheduled the 7th District special election for July 15 (party primaries) and Sept. 23 (special general election). At this point, the leading Democratic primary candidates appear to be Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, the late Congressman’s daughter, and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. The eventual Democratic nominee will win the seat in September.

The remaining seven open seats, including VA-11, will be decided in the regular election cycle.

Sen. Tuberville to Run for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Governor

Senator and former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville

Though he has yet to make a formal announcement, first-term Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) has reportedly made the decision to eschew running for re-election and will instead enter his state’s open gubernatorial campaign.

Assuming the news stories and X tweets are correct, Alabama will become the sixth state to host an open Senate campaign. Tuberville will be joining Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI), Tina Smith (D-MN), Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), and Dick Durbin (D-IL) in the group that will not be seeking re-election in 2026.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is ineligible to run for a third term, meaning we could now see crowded Republican primaries for both Governor and Senator.

In the Governor’s race, no one has officially declared as yet, but Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth (R) has indicated he will soon make an announcement. State Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate (R), ex-Secretary of State John Merrill (R), and former corporate CEO and 2022 gubernatorial candidate Lew Burdette (R) are among the individuals mentioned as likely to run for Governor. For the Democrats, only Birmingham Mayor Randall Woodfin has been discussed as a potential contender.

It will be interesting to see whether a Tuberville gubernatorial candidacy will dissuade any of the aforementioned from running for Governor, thus allowing them to take advantage of the opportunity to switch lanes and enter an open Senate campaign.

Sen. Tuberville began his political career in 2020 with his run for the Senate, after gaining notoriety as a major college football coach, principally at Alabama’s Auburn University.

From a historical perspective, the state’s electorate saw a great deal of Senate action once President Trump began his first term. Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) was appointed US Attorney General, thus leading to his resignation from the legislative post he held since the beginning of 1997.

After serving about a year in his new position, AG Sessions experienced a major falling out with President Trump that resulted in his resignation. Mr. Sessions would later return to Alabama in an attempt to regain his Senate seat.

In the 2017 special election to replace Sen. Sessions, Democrat Doug Jones took advantage of Republican discord and the party nominating a weak candidate when appointed Sen. Luther Strange (R) lost the special primary. The developments paved the way for Jones to score an upset victory.

Turning to the 2020 general election, Sen. Jones’s political magic disappeared when Tuberville garnered 60 percent of the vote to convert the seat to the Republican column.

Earlier, in that year’s Republican primary, Tuberville defeated ex-Sen. Sessions 61-39 percent after the two qualified for a runoff from the seven-candidate Republican primary. Tuberville finished first in the initial election with 33.4 percent while Sessions garnered 31.6 percent.

The fact that a former multi-term Senator could only attract little more than 30 percent in his own party’s primary doomed him for the runoff election, and Tuberville took full advantage of the situation with help from President Trump.

During Tuberville’s initial term in the Senate, he established a strong conservative record and reputation, which should allow him to begin the gubernatorial race in the favorite’s position. As with most Alabama statewide elections, winning the Republican nomination is tantamount to claiming victory in November, and the 2026 preview fails to suggest any deviation from this pattern.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate for Alabama a 63.9R – 34.5D partisan lean, thus giving further credence to the analysis that the eventual gubernatorial and Senatorial Republican nominees will be heavy favorites to again win the Yellowhammer State’s November 2026 elections.