Category Archives: Election Analysis

Court Tosses Virginia Redistricting; Florida Rep. Vern Buchanan to Retire

Virginia Congressional Districts map / Dave’s Redistricting App

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, January 29, 2025

Virginia

A Virginia Circuit Court Judge ruled that the legislature violated its own rules in hastily voting to place a partisan redistricting referendum on a statewide special election ballot. Therefore, with this ruling, the Virginia congressional redistricting referendum is likely nullified for the 2026 election cycle.

Judge Jack Hurley Jr. agreed with three of the four plaintiffs’ arguments, which is enough to halt the redistricting process. The arguments largely pertained to legislative procedure for special sessions: determining that the legislators violated certain rules they almost unanimously put in place, and not providing timely notice to voters and counties about the upcoming referendum in accordance with Virginia election law.

The Old Dominion redistricting outcome may have been devastating to Republicans if the proposed map outline, which has not been unveiled publicly, ultimately delivered a 10D-1R partisan split as reported. The current Virginia delegation is 6D-5R. Unless something changes on the legal front in relation to appealing this decision, the 2026 election will be conducted on the present 2021 map.

The Virginia candidate filing deadline is April 2 for the June 16 primary election. Therefore, the 2026 political clock at least regarding redistricting is now on the Republicans’ side.

Yet, even under the current map, several seats will be hotly contested in the midterm election cycle. Eleven Democrats have announced their challenge to veteran 1st District Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montrose). Former Congresswoman Elaine Luria (D) is mounting a comeback attempt against the woman who unseated her in 2022, Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach), in District 2.

Moving to the central part of the state, freshman Rep. John McGuire (R-Manakin-Sabot) faces a primary challenge from former Congressman Bob Good in a rematch from the 2024 primary, and general election competition from ex-Congressman Tom Perriello (D), assuming he tops seven other Democrats also vying for the party nomination.

Moving into Northern Virginia, state Sen. Tara Durant (R-Fredericksburg) is poised to run a competitive campaign against freshman Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-Dale City) in the politically marginal 7th District.

Regardless of the electoral map, Old Dominion voters can expect a very active 2026 congressional political cycle.

FL-16

Ten-term Florida Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) announced that he will not seek re-election later this year. The Buchanan retirement means that 55 US House seats are open for the next election. The number includes the four seats that are vacant due to death of an incumbent or resignation from the House and will be filled in special elections.

Of the 55, Rep. Buchanan joins 18 other members who are retiring from elective politics. The others, excluding the two deceased members, are running for another office, either Governor or US Senate. Of the 55 open seats, a total of 30 come from the Republican aisle compared to 20 who are Democrats. The remaining five are new open seats created through 2025 redistricting maps in California and Texas.

Buchanan’s 16th Congressional District, anchored in Bradenton and Manatee County, is safely Republican. The district also houses 25 percent of Hillsborough County. The other population centers are the cities of Bloomingdale, Sun City Center, and Palmetto.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the Republicans hold the partisan lean advantage at 55.2R – 42.7D. President Trump carried the 16th with a 57.3 – 41.8 percent vote spread in 2024.

It is likely, however, that all of these numbers will change if the legislature follows through and passes redistricting legislation later in the year. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) says he will call the legislature into special session in April for the purpose of redrawing the congressional boundaries.

Rep. Buchanan is the third member of the Florida delegation to not seek re-election. The other two are Reps. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City) who is retiring, and Byron Donalds (R-Naples) a gubernatorial candidate.

Expect the new 16th District to be slightly less Republican, as will the surrounding seats on Florida’s Gulf Coast. Doing so will allow more Republican voters to be drawn into Democratic seats, and particularly the district of Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland) who is clearly in the most vulnerable political position of any central/southern Florida Democratic member.

Nebraska Senate: Here We Go Again

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, January 28, 2026

Senate

In every US Senate election cycle, it seems that a surprising race unexpectedly comes to national prominence, and one 2026 such campaign is already emerging.

Nebraska US Senate candidate Dan Osborn

In 2024, Independent Dan Osborn came from nowhere to battle Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R), and for a long while it appeared he was close to pulling the upset of the year. In the end, Sen. Fischer won by six percentage points, and the Osborn surge fell short.

The chief reason that Osborn, as an Independent, became a competitive threat was because the Nebraska Democratic Party agreed not to field their own candidate and the Democratic state convention delegates then endorsed the Osborn campaign. Serious national fundraising then caught fire.

Osborn’s original reported choice for the 2026 election cycle was to run in the highly competitive 2nd Congressional District, now an open seat with Rep. Don Bacon’s (R-Papillion/Omaha) retirement; but, the Democratic leadership would not commit to supporting him. The reason is simple: The eventual Democratic nominee has a strong chance of winning the seat. The state party leaders said, however, they would again support an Osborn Senate bid, this time against the state’s other Republican incumbent, Pete Ricketts.

In a poll conducted a month ago but just released this week, we again see Osborn performing very well in a Senate battle. According to the Lake Research Partners ballot test data (Dec. 11-17; 600 likely Nebraska voters; live interview), Sen. Ricketts’ lead is only one percentage point, 48-47.

In the 2024 race, Osborn clearly over-performed in polling. In the 19 polls released publicly during the election year, Osborn led in eight ballot tests, was tied in two, and only trailed Sen. Fischer by an average of 4.3 percentage points in the nine surveys where she held the advantage. The momentum turned Sen. Fischer’s way in the campaign’s closing days.

The question for 2026 is whether the closeness of the 2024 race was an anomaly or is Osborn a true threat to upset Sen. Ricketts? In reality, Osborn winning the statewide tally is still a long shot.

In the 2024 race, though Osborn came relatively close in the final vote (53.2 – 46.5 percent), Sen. Fischer still carried 89 of the state’s 93 counties. Osborn’s strength was obviously in the Omaha metropolitan area and in Lancaster County, which hosts the capital city of Lincoln and is home to the University of Nebraska.

In the 89 counties that she carried, Sen. Fischer recorded 66.4 percent of the vote. In the four counties where she lost, which accounted for 56.3 percent of the total votes counted, she trailed Osborn substantially, 56.7 – 43.0 percent.

Sen. Fischer, however, displayed weakness in the metro areas to a greater extent than the other Republican candidates on the same ballot. Therefore, the Osborn task against Sen. Ricketts will be much more difficult.

In those same four counties, Douglas, Lancaster, Sarpy, and Thurston, Sen. Ricketts pulled 50.1 percent in his special election to fill the balance of resigned Sen. Ben Sasse’s (R) term and carried both Sarpy and Thurston counties. In the 89 Republican counties, Sen. Ricketts recorded 78.7 percent of the vote, a performance 16 percentage points higher than Sen. Fischer’s total.

For his part, President Trump also outpolled Sen. Fischer. In the four counties she lost, President Trump recorded 46.9 percent (also carrying Sarpy and Thurston counties) and topped 75 percent in the 89 Republican counties.

While Osborn will have strong union support, the Nebraska Democratic Party behind him, and the ability to raise funds nationally, Sen. Ricketts, considering his strong 2024 Senate win and his 58.1 percent average vote tally in his two successful gubernatorial campaigns, is a clear favorite for re-election.

It will not be surprising to see closer than expected polling published in the coming months, as we have already seen with this December Lake Research Partners poll, but as we approach election day Sen. Ricketts will very likely pull away to win with a substantial victory margin.

Klobuchar Files Gov. Committee;
Minnesota Senate Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, January 27, 2026

Governor

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

It appears Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) is moving closer to entering the Minnesota open Governor’s race, and her official announcement could come this week.

Toward the end of last week, Sen. Klobuchar filed a state campaign committee for the purpose of preparing a gubernatorial bid. The act of filing, in and of itself, does not mean an individual is an official candidate, but the prevailing Minnesota political reports suggest that launching her candidacy is imminent.

Since Gov. Tim Walz (D) had announced his intention to seek a third term but then withdrew at the height of publicity over the public assistance program fraud scandal, the potential Democratic candidate field found itself virtually frozen because of Sen. Klobuchar’s likely candidacy.

It is apparent that a Klobuchar entry would virtually seal the party’s gubernatorial nomination so Republican candidate speculation comes to the forefront. Former state Senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Scott Jensen is the most likely GOP prospect, and he has confirmed his interest in a potential run.

Other possible Republican candidates are state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R-Cold Spring), state Rep. Peggy Bennett (R-Albert Lea), state Rep. Kristin Robbins (R-Maple Grove), ex-St. Cloud City Councilman Jeff Johnson, agribusiness company CEO Patrick Knight, and several minor candidates. Regardless of who wins the GOP nomination, Sen. Klobuchar will be rated a heavy favorite to win the governorship. If successful, she would then appoint her own successor to the Senate.

The state’s other Senate seat hosts an open race, too, because incumbent Sen. Tina Smith (D) is retiring. Here, we see a competitive two-way Democratic primary developing between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).

While Rep. Craig has a financial advantage, and we will soon see the updated financial totals on the Federal Election Commission 2025 year-end report, Lt. Gov. Flanagan has the early polling lead.

Poll

A just released Public Policy Polling survey (Jan. 16-17; 976 likely Minnesota Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) finds Flanagan leading Rep. Craig, 40-28 percent.

The follow-up questions show that the Minnesota Democratic base is strongly liberal. When asked whether the respondent would be more or less likely to vote for Rep. Craig if they knew she voted to support the Laken Riley Act “that allows the deportation and detention of undocumented immigrants suspected of a nonviolent crime (PPP wording),” 59 percent responded less likely.

Additionally, 71 percent of those surveyed say they would be less likely to vote for Rep. Craig when knowing that she supported a congressional resolution “that included language expressing gratitude to ICE.”

On the secondary ballot test question, asked after reading the aforementioned responses, the Flanagan lead increases to a heightened 54-22 percent. Therefore, it appears Rep. Craig begins the election year as the underdog.

The Congresswoman’s difficulty factor will likely grow after the Minnesota state endorsing convention, held well before the Aug. 11 primary. Lt. Gov. Flanagan will be favored to win the official party endorsement from the attending convention delegates.

Typically, under Minnesota political tradition, most candidates who lose the endorsement vote end their campaign. It is becoming apparent, however, that Rep. Craig, should she lose, will force a primary campaign.

The state of Minnesota has attracted a great deal of national news attention in the past few weeks, and it appears the domain’s 2026 elections will draw even more.

Major New Hampshire Poll Released

By Jim Ellis — Monday, January 26, 2026

Polling

The University of New Hampshire regularly polls its home state, and the new Granite State Poll provides a glimpse into every key 2026 race that the New Hampshire voters will decide. Front and center is the state’s open US Senate race as candidates work toward becoming retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s (D) successor.

The university’s Survey Center (Jan. 15-19; 2,239 New Hampshire registered voters, 2,053 likely New Hampshire general election voters; 893 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters; 967 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters; online) just released the results from their rather exhaustive mid-January questionnaire.

In the Senate general election polling, US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) leads former US Senator John E. Sununu, 50-45%. If former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown were the Republican nominee, Rep. Pappas’ support level would expand to a double-digit 52-42% advantage.

In the Republican primary, Sununu leads ex-Sen. Brown by an even greater 48-25 percent margin. For the Democrats, the Pappas primary lead over scientist Karishma Manzur is a whopping, and unsurprising, 65-11 percent.

The New Hampshire Senate race is one of nine such open contests around the country, which is an unusually large number. Of the nine, five come in Republican states and four in Democratic domains, but only three — Michigan, New Hampshire, and North Carolina — appear competitive for the general election. A fourth state, Minnesota, may be on the cusp of competitiveness now that Republicans have a credible candidate in retired national sportscaster Michele Tafoya (see last week’s update).

The pollsters then interviewed 958 likely voters in New Hampshire’s eastern 1st Congressional District, the seat that Rep. Pappas is risking to run for the Senate.

Among those saying they will participate in the Democratic primary, former Portsmouth City Councilwoman Stefany Shaheen, daughter of retiring the Senator, holds a 33-10-8 percent advantage over state Rep. Heath Howard (D-Strafford) and ex-Obama Administration official Maura Sullivan.

On the Republican side, businesswoman and former New Hampshire GOP Vice-Chair Hollie Noveletsky records a 15-10 percent preference over businessman Anthony DiLorenzo. The Granite Poll did not test the general election, but the eventual Democratic nominee will be a slight favorite to hold the competitive 1st District in November.

The Granite Poll also interviewed 1,093 likely voters in New Hampshire’s western 2nd Congressional District. Here, freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) holds a huge 66-12 percent lead over state Rep. Paige Beauchemin (D-Nashua) in the Democratic primary. In the general election pairing, the Congresswoman is projected to lead 2024 Republican nominee Lily Tang Williams, 54-40 percent. In 2024, Goodlander defeated Williams, 51-43 percent. The latter woman, to date, is unopposed for the Republican nomination.

The UNH Survey Center pollsters also tested the Governor’s race where first-term Governor and former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) will seek re-election for a second two-year term. New Hampshire and neighboring Vermont are the only two states that feature two-year gubernatorial terms.

In testing Gov. Ayotte through hypothetical general election pairings, the pollsters find her leading Portsmouth Mayor Deaglan McEachern, a possible Democratic candidate, 49-41 percent. Against businessman Jon Kiper who is an announced Democratic gubernatorial candidate, she posts a stronger 50-39 percent preference advantage.

Since the beginning of the Trump political era, New Hampshire has largely moved toward the Democratic column. Though the presidential elections have been close, the electorate has voted against President Trump in all three of his campaigns, as polling correctly predicted in each case.

Therefore, looking ahead to the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats must be viewed as having the inside track in the Senate race and the two US House campaigns with Republican incumbent Ayotte being favored for re-election. While the Democrats have won the presidential races and fared stronger in the federal congressional campaigns since 2014, Republicans have claimed the last five gubernatorial races.

Though the New Hampshire Republican candidates have generally fared poorly, the Sununu family continues to win races for the GOP — i.e., former Gov. Chris Sununu’s four consecutive wins. Thus, the electorate nominating former Sen. John E. Sununu, which is likely, should move this race higher on the Republican target charts after the state’s very late Sept. 8 primary election.

While having a small population, the Granite State will again draw more than its share of national political attention in the 2026 midterm elections. Regardless of the final outcome, we can be assured of close finishes in the Senate, 1st District House contest, and the Governor’s race later this year.

Rep. Letlow to Challenge Sen. Cassidy

By Jim Ellis — Friday, January 23, 2026

Senate

Louisiana Rep. Julia Letlow

Three-term Louisiana Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) has joined the group challenging GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy. The Senator confirmed he received a message from Rep. Letlow saying that she will oppose him in this year’s Republican primary and then subsequently publicly declared her intentions. Reports are also surfacing that President Trump has endorsed her candidacy.

The move is a bit of a surprise since a reported understanding existed between Rep. Letlow and state Rep. Julie Emerson (R-Carencro), chair of Louisiana’s House Ways and Means Committee, that the two would not oppose each other in the Senate challenge. Rep. Emerson announced her candidacy in late October.

It has long been presumed that President Trump would be active in this race since Sen. Cassidy is one of just two Republican Senators on the 2026 ballot to have voted for impeachment over the Jan. 6 controversy at the Capitol. Recently, Trump has been more conciliatory toward the Senator, but it is still clear that he would prefer a different Republican join Sen. John Kennedy (R) in representing Louisiana.

Clearly, the Bayou State race will be one of the premier GOP primary contests. Aside from Rep. Letlow and state Rep. Emerson, 10 others — including State Treasurer and former Congressman and ex-Deputy White House Chief of Staff in the first Trump Administration John Fleming, state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia), Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta, and St. Tammany Parish Councilwoman Kathy Seiden — are all in the nomination race against Sen. Cassidy.

Typically, such a large field would generally help an incumbent because the anti-incumbent votes would be split among so many contenders. In Louisiana, however, the political dynamics have changed. At the end of 2024, the legislature and Governor reinstituted the partisan primary and runoff system to replace the jungle primary structure the state had used since the late 1970s.

Now, such a crowded field likely ensures that the initial vote ends with no candidate receiving majority support, thus forcing the top two finishers to a secondary runoff election.

Originally, the new primary election was scheduled for April 18 but because the US Supreme Court has yet to render a decision on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case, the state has postponed the first vote to May 16 and the runoff, if necessary, to June 27.

The candidate filing deadline for major party candidates is Feb. 13, so it remains to be seen just how many of the dozen candidates follow through with the filing process. It is a good bet that the field will narrow once the filing deadline arrives.

Rep. Letlow was elected to the US House in a 2021 special election after her husband, Luke Letlow, won the 2020 election. Unfortunately, he would die of COVID before he was able to take office. After winning the initial special election, Rep. Letlow was easily re-elected in 2022 and 2024, averaging 65.2 percent of the vote.

With Letlow leaving the House, it means there are 54 open seats with three vacancies moving toward special elections. She is the 29th Republican not to seek re-election and 14th retiring House member to enter a 2026 US Senate race.

The battle for her 5th District House seat becomes interesting in that the district could significantly change depending upon SCOTUS’s ruling on the Louisiana redistricting case. Therefore, who might run to succeed Rep. Letlow won’t be completely settled until the high court justices make their decision and district boundaries are set.

In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) scheduled the special election to replace the late US Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) concurrently with the state’s June 2 regular primary. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two will run off on Aug. 4. At this point, state Assemblyman James Gallagher (R) is the only announced candidate.

Surprisingly, the special election will occur in the current 1st District and not the new 1st that voters adopted in the November special election. Republicans will hold the seat in the special election, but Democrats will likely convert it in November under the new lines that clearly favor their party.

The other two special elections, TX-18 and NJ-11, are scheduled for Jan. 31 and Feb. 5, respectively. The Texas seat is in the final runoff stage while the New Jersey district will host partisan primaries in early February and fill the seat in a special general election on April 16. Democrats are expected to win both of the latter elections.

Tafoya’s Announcement for Senate

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, January 22, 2026

Senate

Michele Tafoya

Recently, both Democratic and Republican party leaders have scored positively in 2026 Senate candidate recruitment.

Last week, Democrats successfully recruited former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola into the Alaska Senate race, and this week the Republicans convinced their top Minnesota candidate prospect to enter the 2026 open campaign.

Former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya, who came to prominence from her years as part of the NFL Sunday Night Football telecasting team, this week formally declared for the Republican US Senate nomination and currently faces no major competition in the GOP primary.

In the general election, Tafoya will likely face either Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan or Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).

The Democratic nomination battle will be interesting. Typically, Minnesota candidates in both parties don’t force a primary if they fail to receive the party endorsement at the state delegate convention. It is probable in this campaign, however, that the losing convention candidate will force a primary election to be decided on August 11th.

Considering the current state of the Minnesota Democratic Farm Labor Party, the most liberal candidate would likely earn the delegate vote. If so, Lt. Gov. Flanagan should be favored. Rep. Craig, risking her congressional seat to run for the Senate, probably won’t end her quest because of a partisan convention delegate vote. With her strong fundraising and campaign ability, Rep. Craig could be considered the favorite to win the primary election even without the official party blessing.

Democrats have enjoyed a strong run in Minnesota over at least the past couple decades and certainly so since 2006, the last election year when a Republican, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, won a major statewide race. Despite the Democrat’s long string of statewide victories, their more recent average win percentage isn’t particularly high. Therefore, the act of fielding a potentially strong candidate like Tafoya suggests that the Republicans scoring an upset victory is within the realm of possibility.

Since the 2018 election, inclusive, Democrats have won every major statewide race, but their aggregate vote percentage average is only 53.5, low for a party that has not lost a major statewide campaign in what will be 20 years at the next election.

One could also argue that the recent average is artificially high because of Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D). Of the eight studied races, she won two and her average vote total is 58.2 percent against weak Republican competition. If she is removed from the calculation, the average Democratic win percentage in their most recent six victories is only 51.7.

Unfortunately for the Republicans, the highest GOP total in those same statewide elections is President Trump’s 46.7 percent total in 2024. Even when including Trump’s high number, the Republican aggregate average during the studied period is only 42.7 percent.

While the political situation is hot in Minneapolis right now when considering the ICE controversy and the public assistance fraud scandal, Republican strategists will still need to properly position Tafoya in order to positively drive home the policy differences between her and the eventual Democratic nominee. Because she is a prominent candidate, it is likely the Tafoya campaign will be adequately funded to properly deliver her message.

While the ICE tensions may well die down before the Nov. 3 election, the Tafoya campaign will work to keep the fraud scandal alive and pin the blame upon the Democrats. This task will be easier if Lt. Gov. Flanagan becomes the party nominee because, as a state official, she can be held at least partially responsible for the government’s poor oversight.

While Tafoya will be a credible Republican voice in the November contest, she still must be rated as a decided underdog at least until her campaign begins to significantly move polling numbers as the general election unfolds.

NJ-11: Special Election Heating Up

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, January 21, 2026

House

New Jersey Congressional Districts map (click on image to see larger interactive map on Dave’s Redistricting Map.)

The New Jersey special election campaign is well underway with the major candidates launching attack ads against each other and, of course, President Trump.

Northern New Jersey voters will choose their congressional nominees on Feb. 5 to begin the process of replacing former Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) in the Garden State’s 11th Congressional District. Sherrill was sworn in as New Jersey’s Governor yesterday.

The real battle is in the Democratic primary, since the eventual party nominee will be a heavy favorite to win the seat in the special general election set for April 16. Eleven Democrats are actively campaigning, and the major contenders appear to be former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, ex-7th District Rep. Tom Malinowski, Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill, and Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett.

Gill is attracting attention for his ad that calls out former Rep. Malinowski for making millions of dollars in stock transactions when he was in the House during the Covid pandemic. Prior to his defeat in 2022, the House Ethics Commission was investigating the Malinowski transactions and ruled that he should have reported his gains on mandatory financial disclosure statements.

The Malinowski campaign responds with an ad saying he will fight Trump and, as he says, “… the billionaires screwing people and the insurance companies denying coverage, [and] the big tech companies hurting our kids.” The former Congressman says he “can do this because I refuse to take corporate PAC money.”

The Malinowski campaign appears vulnerable to the stock transaction attacks because the very companies he claims to be opposing are the type of industrial entities that he invested with to personally profit. Therefore, Gill and others attacking Malinowski because they perceive him as a front-runner may have the necessary political ammunition to deny him the party nomination.

Tahesha Way served as New Jersey’s Lieutenant Governor and Secretary of State. Now-former Gov. Phil Murphy (D) appointed her to both positions. She is spending her ad time attacking Trump and claims she is the only candidate to have “beaten Trump.” The reference is to winning an election law case against the Trump Administration.

All of the major candidates will be well funded, and the Democratic primary race will likely attract a great deal of attention as we approach Election Day. The Republicans have an unopposed candidate for their nomination. Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway will face the eventual Democratic nominee.

It remains to be seen if the Republicans will mount a major challenge in this district. The seat has transformed over the years from one that typically elected Republicans to one that is now reliably Democratic.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the NJ-11 partisan lean is 55.6D – 42.5R. In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris defeated President Trump there, 53.1 – 44.6 percent. In her two elections under the present district configuration, then-Rep. Sherrill averaged 57.7 percent of the vote in a pair of largely non-competitive elections.

The 11th District’s partisan voting history suggests the seat could at some point again become competitive. Considering, however, the Republicans’ rather poor performances in special elections around the country this year where their candidates are typically underperforming either as compared to the Trump number, the partisan lean factor, or both, it is doubtful that Hathaway can mount a serious run to score an upset victory on April 16.

New Jersey’s 11th CD lies in the northern part of the state and encompasses parts of three counties, Essex, Morris, and Passaic. The district is anchored in Morris County where the 11th covers approximately three-quarters of the local population. Another approximately 300,000 individuals reside in Essex County, with the remaining 80,000-plus more in Passaic. The main population centers are the cities of Morristown, Montclair, and Broomfield, the latter two located just northwest of Newark.

The next special congressional election comes on Jan. 31 in Texas, where Houston voters will choose a successor between Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, both Democrats.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) previously announced that the special election to replace the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Oroville) for Aug. 4, the latest date possible under state law. Voters in the special election will choose who will serve out the remaining term of the late Congressman.