Category Archives: Election Analysis

WEEKLY POLITICAL WRAP-UP:
PERIOD ENDING Oct. 10, 2025

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 13, 2025

Senate

Kentucky Senate challenger Amy McGrath (D)

Kentucky — Marine Corps veteran Amy McGrath, who proved her fundraising prowess in two unsuccessful political races, announced that she will enter the 2026 Kentucky US Senate race. Her previous losses were to Congressman Andy Barr, who may well again be her opponent in next year’s Senate general election, and Sen. Mitch McConnell.

According to The Down Ballot political blog reporters, McGrath raised over $94 million for her two campaigns. She lost a close race to Rep. Barr, and in a landslide to Sen. McConnell.

Louisiana — Sen. Bill Cassidy has drawn another Republican primary opponent. St. Tammany Parish Councilwoman Kathy Seiden announced last week that she will join the growing group of Cassidy primary opponents. In the race are State Treasurer and former US Congressman John Fleming, state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia), and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta. Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) continues to dangle the possibility of her entering the race. If she decides not to become a candidate, state Rep. Julie Emerson (R-Carencro), chair of the Louisiana House Ways & Means Committee, is likely to enter.

Late last year, the legislature and Governor changed Louisiana’s election system. Instead of a jungle primary for federal races, the state returns to a partisan primary format. Therefore, the new primaries are scheduled for April 18. If no candidate secures majority support in the initial election, a runoff between the top two finishers will occur on May 30.

House

CA-45 — Since former Rep. Michelle Steel (R) has decided not to seek a rematch in 2026 against freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange), Republicans may have found a new candidate. Former Cerritos City Councilman Chuong Vo announced that he will enter the 2026 race to challenge the new Congressman. Should the California redistricting map receive majority vote in the Nov. 4 special election, the 45th would move several points closer to the Democratic side but would still be a competitive seat. Vo says he will run regardless of the redistricting outcome.

IL-2 — Former nine-term Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D) announced that he will attempt a political comeback in his former district. Jackson resigned from the House in 2012 after pleading to misusing $750,000 in congressional and campaign funds. He would spend 18 months in federal prison. In a crowded open Democratic field, Jackson will likely become the favorite to win the Democratic primary and then the seat next year. The 2nd District is open because incumbent Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago) is running for US Senate. Jackson’s brother, Jonathan Jackson (D-Chicago), currently represents the 1st Congressional District.

MD-7 — Baltimore City Councilman Mark Conway (D) filed a congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission suggesting that he may challenge veteran Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D-Baltimore). Rep. Mfume was first elected to the House in 1986 but left Congress to head the NAACP in 1996. He returned to the House in the 2020 election.

Prior to his service in Congress, Mfume spent eight years on the Baltimore City Council. It remains to be seen whether Conway is preparing a primary challenge or readying a congressional committee in case Congressman Mfume decides to retire.

MO-1 — Former Missouri Congresswoman Cori Bush (D), who was defeated in the 2024 Democratic primary, announced that she will attempt a political comeback. Bush declared that she will return for a rematch with freshman Rep. Wesley Bell (D-St. Louis), who defeated her 51-46 percent in the previous Democratic primary.

The 1st District is largely unchanged in the new Missouri redistricting map, so we will see a rerun of the 2024 campaign. In ’24, Rep. Bell went onto score a 76 percent win in the general election. During her two terms in the House, Bush was a member of the informal Democratic Socialist “Squad” caucus.

NH-2 — Democratic state Representative Paige Beauchemin (D-Nashua) announced that she will challenge freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) in next year’s September Democratic primary. Beauchemin, who won her state position in 2022, says she will run a campaign based upon a “message of radical empathy and grassroots energy.” Rep. Goodlander will be a heavy favorite for renomination and re-election in 2026.

NY-19 — In a seat that has swung back and forth between Democratic and Republican representation in the US House, freshman Rep. Josh Riley (D-Ithaca), who defeated then-Rep. Marc Molinaro (R), sees a new Republican announcing his candidacy. In what promises to be a competitive race, state Sen. Peter Oberacker (R-Schenevus) stated that he will join the 2026 congressional campaign. We can expect this race to become a national congressional campaign that is expensive and highly competitive.

TN-9 — Tennessee state Rep. Justin Pearson (D-Memphis) this week announced that he will challenge veteran Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) who, as a white male, has held the majority black district since the 2006 election. Prior to his service in Congress, Rep. Cohen served 24 years in the Tennessee state Senate. This is another Democratic primary situation where a young challenger – Rep. Pearson is 30 years old – is challenging an older veteran incumbent. Rep. Cohen is 76 years old. This race can become highly competitive.

Governor

Alaska — Former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson (R), who was defeated for re-election to a second term, has entered the 2026 open Governor’s race. He becomes the 10th Republican vying for the party nomination. The group includes Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom and ex-appointed Attorney General Treg Taylor. Sen. Lisa Murkowski also has not publicly ruled out joining the campaign. On the Democratic side, former state Sen. Tom Begich is the only announced candidate. Begich, however, says he will withdraw if former Rep. Mary Peltola decides to enter. Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Maine — Health care company executive Jonathan Bush, cousin to former President George W. Bush, announced that he is joining the crowded open Governor’s candidate field. Bush is now the seventh Republican to announce his or her candidacy. Democrats have five contenders, along with three Independents. Gov. Janet Mills (D) cannot succeed herself under Maine’s term limit law. She is expected to challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R) next year.

New Jersey — Despite considerable negative publicity for Democratic nominee and Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) over her stock transactions and Naval Academy cheating scandal controversy, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds her still leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli. The PPP results (Oct. 2-3; 703 registered New Jersey voters; text and live interview) see Sherrill posting a 49-43 percent advantage. Other polls show the Sherrill lead between two and eight points. It is probable the race is close. Ciattarelli has substantially under-polled in his previous statewide campaigns based upon the actual result. This will be an interesting race in the campaign’s final month as the candidates stream toward the Nov. 4 election date.

New York — After several polls had shown Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) posting large polling leads over presumed GOP candidate and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville), an extensive Grayhouse firm survey (Sept. 20-26; 1,250 likely New York voters; 750 text-to-web; 500 live interview; 605 likely New York Democratic primary voters) sees a much closer ballot test result. According to Grayhouse, Gov. Hochul’s lead is just 48-43 percent over Rep. Stefanik.

This data also shows a tightening of the Democratic primary, though Gov. Hochul maintains a sizable lead. The ballot test for this cell segment shows the Governor’s advantage at 43-14 percent over Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado.

Rhode Island — After toying with the idea of challenging Democratic Gov. Dan McKee in the party primary, term-limited Attorney General Peter Neronha announced that he will not enter the statewide race.

At this point, the Governor’s principal Democratic challenger is his 2022 opponent, former corporate CEO Helena Foulkes. State House Speaker Joe Shekarchi (D-Warwick) is also reportedly still considering a gubernatorial bid. The Rhode Island primary is not until Sept. 8, so much time remains for this race to gel. Winning the Democratic primary is tantamount to clinching the Governorship.

South Carolina — A new poll suggests the open South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary has a new leader, and it is not any of the more established political names.

The Trafalgar Group just released a new October poll for the South Carolina Republican primary (Sept. 30-Oct. 2; 1,094 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the race’s top finisher is Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette. From these results, Evette edges Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), Attorney General Alan Wilson, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg), 20-16-12-9-1 percent, respectively with an undecided percentage of 41. All figures are rounded to the highest number.

Wisconsin — Ending speculation about whether he would enter the open Governor’s race, state Attorney General Josh Kaul (D) announced that he will seek re-election to a third term rather than enter what will be a highly competitive open campaign. The Democratic gubernatorial primary field already features Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, former state cabinet secretary Missy Hughes, and two state legislators. Gov. Tony Evers (D) is not seeking a third term.

US House News

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 10, 2025

We saw several key US House announcements during the week, all of which will lead to competitive campaigns.

ME-2

Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) has drawn a strong Democratic primary opponent. State Auditor and former Secretary of State (appointed positions in Maine) Matt Dunlap announced he will challenge Golden for the party nomination in the June 9 primary.

Dunlap has already unleashed a one-minute digital ad (see above video) attacking both Rep. Golden and former Governor Paul LePage, who at this point is unopposed in the Republican primary. The Dunlap ad attacks Rep. Golden as “bad,” and ex-Gov. LePage as “worse.” The attack centers around their lack of opposition to (Golden) and support for (LePage) President Trump.

Clearly, Dunlap is executing a Democratic primary strategy, moving far to the left with rhetorical talking points attempting to attract the party’s Democratic socialist faction. While this approach may well pay dividends in the Democratic primary, it will place him in a difficult place for the general election in a 2nd District that is the most Republican seat in the nation to elect a Democratic Congressman, and one that President Trump carried in all three of his national campaigns.

The Golden-Dunlap congressional primary will be an interesting race, and with ex-Gov. LePage running as the Republican nominee in a district he carried in all three of his statewide elections, ME-2 could realistically become the GOP’s top national conversion target.

NC-1

North Carolina’s 1st District is the focal point of the Republican legislative leadership wanting to redraw the state’s congressional map. Rep. Don Davis’ (D-Snow Hill) seat is one of 13 that voted for President Trump but then rebounded to elect a Democrat to the US House. In Rep. Davis’ case, his victory margin was a tight 49.5 – 47.8 percent, thus making him an obvious target for the redistricting pen.

To reiterate from past Updates, North Carolina has a unique redistricting system. The legislature controls the entire map construction process because the Governor has no veto power over legislative action directly relating to redistricting. Now that Republicans have a majority on the state Supreme Court, which means the Republican legislature and the high court are united in their interpretation of redistricting law, again redrawing the congressional map with minimal alterations is a real possibility.

This week, Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse (R) signaled that redistricting is forthcoming with his entrance into the 1st District congressional campaign. Rouse will face former Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson and state Sen. Bobby Hanig (R-Currituck County) in the Republican primary if not others. If redistricting is completed, the eventual Republican nominee will have a strong chance of unseating Davis. If not, we will likely see a toss-up battle form in a district with an electorate proven to swing between both parties.

The North Carolina primary is scheduled in the early cycle for March 3. The state has a 30 percent runoff rule, meaning a candidate is nominated if his or her vote percentage exceeds this percentage plateau. If no one reaches such a number, the top two finishers will runoff on May 12.

TX-21

As expected when he resigned his position as a Federal Election Commissioner, Republican Trey Trainor this week announced his candidacy for one of Texas’ eight open US House seats under the new redistricting map. Incumbent Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin) is risking his TX-21 seat to run for state Attorney General.

Trainor has long served President Trump. With the original 2016 presidential campaign, Trainor was a legal counsel for the Republican National Platform Committee, then a transition team appointee for the Department of Defense, leading to President Trump appointing him to the Federal Election Commission in 2020.

During his tenure, Trainor served as both Chairman and Vice Chairman of the body. In his official position, he represented the United States as an election observer for the Romanian presidential election and the Costa Rica national elections.

Already in the 21st District race is former baseball player Mark Teixeira who came to sports fame when playing for the New York Yankees and was a member of the 2009 championship team. Teixeira was born in Annapolis, Maryland; attended Georgia Tech University; and lived in Connecticut for a decade with no political experience, which will contrast with Trainor who was born and raised in Texas, and been involved with the state’s political system during his entire career.

Also in the race are businessman Jason Cahill, healthcare company executive Kyle Sinclair, State Republican Executive Committee member Michael Wheeler, and several minor candidates.

The GOP primary will be decisive here because the new 21st is again solidly Republican. The Texas flood tragedy, which occurred in this district during July, will be a major focal point of this campaign as the candidates will argue as to who best can help manage the massive recovery operation for which the federal government will maintain a key lead role.

The Texas primary is an early March 3. Should no candidate receive majority support, which is likely, a runoff between the top two finishers will occur on May 26.

Rep. Hunt Enters Texas Senate Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025

Senate

As has been speculated upon for months, two-term US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) officially entered the 2026 Republican US Senate primary in Texas. He joins a campaign that has been active for almost a year between GOP principal participants, Sen. John Cornyn, the four-term incumbent, and three-term Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Though Rep. Hunt only became an official candidate this week, a Super PAC supporting him has already spent an estimated $6 million, according to a Texas Tribune news story, to positively promote him around the state. The advertisements were run in media markets throughout Texas with the exception of Houston, from where the Congressman resides and represents.

In his announcement address, Rep. Hunt basically outlined his campaign strategy. A comment from his speech is indicative of how he intends to conduct his effort. Hunt said, “the US Senate race in Texas must be about more than a petty feud between two men who have spent months trading barbs. With my candidacy, this race will finally be about what’s most important: Texas.”

Assuming he follows through on his rhetoric, Rep. Hunt’s strategy will be to bunch Cornyn and Paxton together as if they are one, and campaign against the pair as a singular negative unit. He hopes to feed the fires of negative campaigning between the two men, and then come from the outside as a positive alternative. This approach has worked in many competitive multi-candidate campaigns when two contenders begin to attack each other, thus leaving a lane open for a third credible person to become a positive alternative.

Realistically, the Hunt for Senate campaign, which obviously has outside financial support and at least $3 million in his congressional campaign account that is fully transferrable to a Senate campaign, is most likely to deny either Cornyn or Paxton the opportunity of reaching the 50 percent mark to clinch the March 3 Republican primary. This means the two would advance to a runoff election on May 26.

Early three-way polling suggests the runoff scenario is likely. Nine polls from eight different pollsters have been conducted of the Texas Senate Republican primary that included all three individuals. Two organizations, Real Clear Politics and Decision Desk HQ, have averaged all the poll results and consistently find Hunt well behind in third place.

The Real Clear Politics average finds Paxton leading Sen. Cornyn 36.7 to 32.7 percent with Rep. Hunt capturing 19.0 percent support. Decision Desk HQ sees a closer battle between Cornyn and Paxton, 37.0 to 36.3 percent, respectively, with Hunt bunched together with the Other/Undecided option for a total support factor of 26.7 percent.

In the underlying polls that comprise the DDHQ average, the undecided percentage is running equivalent to Hunt’s support figure, so it would be reasonable to project the Congressman’s total at approximately 14 percent.

Therefore, at the campaign’s early juncture, the preponderance of polling data suggests that Hunt’s entry forces a runoff between Cornyn and Paxton.

With Rep. Hunt having entered the Senate race, it also means his 38th District US House seat will come open. There are temporarily 34 open House seats, including two vacancies being filled in special elections later this year.

Of the 34, a total of 21 are now in Republican-held districts versus just 10 from the Democratic side. The Texas redistricting plan created three new open seats in previously non-existent districts. Rep. Hunt not running again for the House means that at least eight of Texas’ 38 congressional seats will be open in the next election.

The 38th District is fully contained within the central portion of Harris County under the new configuration. According to the updated partisan lean figures from Dave’s Redistricting App, the new 38th carries a 60.5R – 37.4D voting history calculation. Therefore, we can expect a crowded and competitive Republican primary here, with the eventual GOP nominee becoming the prohibitive favorite to clinch the general election.

Returning to the national open House seat count, from the 29 open districts around the country (the number excludes those created in redistricting (three) or where a member passed away or resigned from office (two), 11 Representatives are leaving the House to run for Senate, 10 are running for Governor in their respective state, one is competing for another statewide office (Attorney General of Texas), and seven are retiring from elective politics.

TN-7 Special Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2025

House

Republican Matt Van Epps, who President Trump endorsed over the weekend, easily won the crowded TN-7 Republican primary. State Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) scored a close win for the Democrats in TN-7.

Last night, the 2025-26 special election cycle featured the preliminary vote from the third of four congressional special elections, and we now see nominees from both parties emerging in Tennessee’s vacated 7th District.

For the Republicans, former Tennessee cabinet secretary Matt Van Epps, who President Trump endorsed over the weekend, easily won the crowded Republican primary. On the Democratic side, state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) scored a close win over a non-elected official and two fellow Nashville area state Representatives.

Van Epps and Behn now advance into the special general election scheduled for Dec. 2. The winner will fill the balance of the current term and of course be eligible to run for a full term in the regular 2026 election cycle. Former Congressman Mark Green (R) resigned in July to accept a position in the private sector, thus creating the vacancy and necessitating a special election.

The 7th District is strongly Republican, but clearly the Democrats are going to make a run to score an upset. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the partisan lean yields a 55.1 – 42.1 Republican to Democratic ratio. Both President Trump and Congressman Green exceeded the partisan lean in 2024. Trump defeated Kamala Harris in the 7th District, 60.4 – 38.1 percent. Rep. Green was re-elected to a fourth term with a similar 59.5 – 38.1 percent victory margin.

The 7th includes 11 western Tennessee counties and parts of three others. One of the split counties is Davidson, which means part of the city of Nashville lies within the 7th District’s domain. The other major population center is Montgomery County, which houses the city of Clarksville, home of former Rep. Green.

The primary turnout suggests that this race could be close in December. The total Republican participation factor was 36,854 individuals. Total Democratic turnout was 31,002, not far behind the GOP figure. The aggregate turnout for the two primaries was 67,856, which is just about average for a special congressional primary when measured against similar elections around the country. The general election turnout is expected to be higher but may be under 100,000 voters if the primary is any indication.

In comparison, the 2024 general election congressional turnout was 322,656, obviously way ahead of last night’s report. In the last midterm, 2022, which would be a better comparison since we are currently in a midterm cycle, the participation figure was 180,822, or only 56 percent of the presidential election cycle turnout, which is a larger drop-off rate (44 percent) than average. Usually, we see drop-offs from a presidential year to the succeeding midterm in the 35 percent range.

Van Epps recorded majority support in the Republican primary at 51.5 percent. His closest competitors, state Reps. Jody Barrett (R-Dickson) and Gino Bulso (R-Brentwood), received 25.3 percent and 10.9 percent, respectively. None of the other eight candidates managed to reach six percent support, though state Rep. Lee Reeves (R-Franklin) dropped out of the race after President Trump endorsed Van Epps. Rep. Reeves then also publicly supported the eventual winner.

For the Democrats, we saw a much tighter battle. State Rep. Behn received 27.9 percent of the partisan vote. Closely behind was businessman Darden Copeland with 24.9 percent. Two other state Representatives, Bo Mitchell (D-Nashville) and Vincent Dixie (D-Nashville), also were not far behind, finishing with 24.2 percent and 23.1 percent, respectively.

It is likely that Rep. Behn will now be able to unite the Democratic Party for the special general election. Because of how the primary unfolded, it is anticipated that the general election may be closer than the historical data would suggest.

Van Epps appears to be a strong candidate, but his campaign organization will need to substantially increase Republican turnout in order to secure the seat not only for the special general election but also for future campaigns.

North Carolina Redistricting

North Carolina redistricting map / Click on image to go to interactive version on Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2025

Redistricting

The Tar Heel State of North Carolina appears positioned to join the national redistricting wars. The state has been redrawn more than any other since the 2010 census, and it looks like the legislature may again change the congressional district boundaries.

North Carolina has a unique system where the Governor has no veto power over redistricting. Republicans have solid control of both legislative houses, which is all they need to change the map. Before the 2022 election, the legislature and state courts were in a perennial battle over redistricting as it related to the race issue. The Republican legislature would pass a map and the state Supreme Court, with a Democratic majority, would reject it and impose a different draw.

In the 2022 election, the Republicans captured the state Supreme Court majority, thus uniting the legislature and judiciary with regard to redistricting legislation. This led to the General Assembly replacing the court imposed map that yielded each party seven seats and, with judicial approval, enacted the current draw where Republicans control 10 seats and Democrats four.

Turning to the national redistricting wars where many states are redrawing or considering replacing their congressional map, the North Carolina legislative Republicans may make a further adjustment. Doing so would net another GOP seat, thus creating an 11R-3D statewide congressional map.

The target will be the state’s politically marginal eastern 1st District that two-term US Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) represents. The 1st is one of 13 districts nationally that President Trump carried but the electorate then turned and elected a Democrat to the US House. In NC-1, Trump scored a 51.2 – 48.1 percent victory margin over Kamala Harris. In the same 2024 election, Rep. Davis defeated Republican Laurie Buckhout, 49.5 – 48.7 percent.

North Carolina’s 1st District covers 21 counties and part of one other. The seat hugs the Virginia border from just west of the cities of Rocky Mount and Wilson along Interstate 95 and then moves east all the way to the Atlantic Ocean. It then stretches south and east of Raleigh to achieve population equivalency with the other districts. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the partisan lean here is a fairly tight 50.9D – 47.7R.

Looking at the map from a partisan perspective, which the legislative leaders and the White House certainly are, it would be relatively easy to make the 1st District more Republican, thus making it easier to defeat Rep. Davis.

The 1st shares a border with Rep. Greg Murphy’s (R-Greenville) 3rd District. An interchange of an equal number of Democratic and Republican voters from District 1 to District 3 would endanger Rep. Davis and still create a safe Republican seat for Rep. Murphy while not disrupting the other nine Republican members’ districts. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean for the current CD-3 is 57.2R – 40.7D.

Leaders in many states are discussing redistricting for their next legislative session. The Texas and Missouri maps are complete and will face the perfunctory legal challenges. California Democrats are countering the Texas map with a referendum designed to replace the California Independent Redistricting Commission’ plan enacted in 2021. Polling suggests a close vote for Proposition 50 in the Nov. 4 special statewide election, but the overwhelming Democratic registration numbers and their resource advantage suggest that they can probably win the election.

Both the Texas and California map are drawn with the intent of adding five seats to their party’s congressional delegation, Republicans in Texas and Democrats in California. If the maps perform as designed, the respective five-seat gains will cancel one another. Hence, the importance of other states redrawing their maps for Republicans to strengthen their current US House majority.

If North Carolina redraws, their new Republican seat and the one in Missouri will net the GOP an additional two seats in the House.

The Florida legislature is already planning to redistrict upon their return to regular session in January. Their plan could net the GOP a reported two seats. Indiana Republican legislative leaders, with encouragement from the White House, are potentially considering a redraw that also could net the GOP two seats. Under state law, Ohio must redraw because the current map did not receive three-fifths support in the legislature. The new map could net the GOP a further two seats.

The Utah courts have ruled that their state’s congressional map is illegal because the legislature ignored redistricting criteria that voters adopted in a previous election. A new draw could give the Democrats a net gain of one.

Perhaps the most defining redistricting issue is the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case currently before the US Supreme Court. The justices didn’t rule in June as expected, instead scheduling a new round of oral arguments for Oct. 15. The eventual Louisiana ruling could affect the redistricting situation in several other states and could prove to be the landmark racial gerrymandering ruling that will finally clarify what the states can and can’t do to remain in compliance with the US Constitution and the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

The final redistricting decisions and moves will have a profound impact upon the 2026 US House election cycle. Whichever party ultimately prevails in the better position will have a major advantage toward securing a House majority for the 120th Congress.

The New Missouri Lines

Missouri Congressional Districts / Click on image to go to Dave’s Redistricting interactive map.


By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 6, 2025

Redistricting

Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe (R) signed the legislature’s new congressional redistricting map this week, so it appears that the Show Me State delegation will compete in new districts next year.

Naturally, lawsuits are being filed to nullify the new map, and it remains to be seen how the courts will rule through the continuing legal process. Depending upon the lawsuit’s subject matter, the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case before the US Supreme Court could have an effect upon future Missouri map rulings. Oral arguments for the Louisiana case are scheduled for Oct. 15, with a decision to come before the year ends.

The new Missouri map protects all six GOP incumbents, though most shed Republican voters in order to create a new western Republican 5th District. At the heart of the new plan is changing the Kansas City area to create a new Republican leaning seat instead of 11-term Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D-Kansas City) urban downtown district.

To make the plan work for the GOP, the map drawers expanded the 4th District’s Jackson County share, including drawing the seat directly into Kansas City. Previously, the 4th contained part of Jackson County but none of Kansas City. The design then drives the new 5th CD into rural areas, while still keeping a large portion of Kansas City. The new draw then extends the seat east all the way past Jefferson City, meaning the 5th district’s eastern boundary is now closer to St. Louis than Kansas City.

The new partisan lean of 58.4R – 40.1D (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations) is quite different from the previous 5th’s 60.8D – 35.9R division. The difference is a net swing of 43.2 percentage points in the Republicans’ favor.

Though the new 5th District appears reliably Republican, Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas (D) indicated he might consider running for Congress there, believing the seat will still be competitive and assuming 80-year-old Rep. Cleaver does not seek re-election. The Mayor indicated he wants to ensure that “Kansas Citians … have a choice at the ballot box that represents Kansas City viewpoints and values.”

The 4th District alterations are also substantial. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App calculations, the new partisan lean is 59.9R – 38.7D. The previous 4th held a partisan break of 66.8R – 29.9D under the same projection formula, so we see a net change of almost 16 percentage points toward the Democratic line.

Rep. Mark Alford’s (R-Lake Winnebago) 4th is still strongly Republican, and the Congressman will be a clear favorite to win re-election, but he may have to wage a more active campaign than he would have from his original 4th CD.

The remaining six districts all keep their population cores though the partisan leans change in some cases.

The 1st District is again largely the city of St. Louis, but the partisan lean has been made just slightly more Democratic. In the 2021 map, the partisan division was projected at 77.1D – 20.4R. The new 1st carries a 77.9D – 20.3R break. Here, we are likely to see a Democratic primary re-match.

Earlier in the week, former Rep. Cori Bush, who lost renomination in 2024, said she will return to face now-Congressman Wesley Bell (D-St. Louis). Irrespective of who prevails in next year’s Aug. 4 Dem primary, the winner will claim the new 1st in the general election.

Another Republican redraw goal was to improve Rep. Ann Wagner’s (R-Ballwin) re-election prospects in her St. Louis suburban 2nd District by adding more Republican voters. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App calculations, the new partisan lean is 54.9R – 43.4D, which is a further cushion of about a point and a half for the seven-term incumbent.

The Republicans from District 3 (freshman Rep. Bob Onder) and 6 (Rep. Sam Graves) both see their respective districts become slightly more Democratic, but the two seats remain firmly in the GOP camp and neither incumbent will have trouble being re-elected.

The two southern Missouri congressional seats, District 7 (Rep. Eric Burlison) and 8 (Rep. Jason Smith), actually see their two safe Republican seats become even more so under the new plan.

Assuming the new map withstands the legal challenges, expect the Republicans to see a net gain of one seat in the Missouri delegation.

Rep. Schweikert Announces for
Governor in Arizona

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 3, 2025

House

Arizona Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale) / Photo by Gage Skidmore via Flickr

Another US House seat came open Wednesday as eight-term Arizona Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale) announced that he will enter the competitive Republican primary for Governor.

The House open seat count now grows, at least temporarily, to 33. Two more special elections will be held before the end of the year to fill vacancies in Tennessee and Texas.

Rep. Schweikert’s 1st Congressional District becomes the third Republican open in the volatile toss-up category. After the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission members turned Rep. Schweikert’s safe Republican 6th District into a politically marginal 1st District, he has seen two very close re-election results along with a tight presidential contest within his current constituency.

In 2022, Rep. Schweikert was re-elected with just 50.2 percent of the vote over political newcomer and businessman Jevin Hodge (D). Two years later with Hodge not returning for a re-match, the incumbent scored another tight re-election victory but with an improved 51.9 percent against former state Representative and physician Amish Shah (D). This, after winning renomination with just under 63 percent of the vote.

Considering, however, that Schweikert had just agreed to violating 11 different House ethics rules and campaign finance violations resulting in an agreed to $50,000 fine, his strong campaign skills allowed him to politically survive.

President Trump defeated Kamala Harris here with a similarly close 51.1 – 48.0 percent victory margin. In 2020, Joe Biden nipped Trump within the current District 1 confines with a 50-49 percent margin.

Clearly, the 1st District congressional campaign will move further up the Democratic target list now that the seat is open. Already in the race originally vying for the opportunity of challenging Rep. Schweikert is a return appearance from Dr. Shah and former news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, who lost the 2024 Democratic primary.

Republicans will now have to find a new nominee with Schweikert pursuing his new statewide venture. Potential GOP candidates reportedly are state Rep. Matt Gress and Phoenix City Councilman Jim Waring.

Already, however, announcing they will not run for Congress, according to The Down Ballot political blog reporters, are Maricopa County Board of Supervisors’ chairman Thomas Galvin and state Sen. Carine Werner.

While Rep. Schweikert would have faced another difficult re-election campaign for the House, his path toward the Republican gubernatorial nomination is also far from secure. In the race for months have been fellow Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) and 2022 statewide candidate Karrin Taylor Robson.

At least at one point, President Trump had endorsed both Biggs and Robson but then appeared to rescind his endorsement of the latter. The President indicated he didn’t feel that she was using his endorsement to the fullest extent.

A recent Pulse Decision Science survey (Sept. 8-10; 502 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; live interview) finds Rep. Biggs opening a large GOP primary lead. According to the Pulse ballot test, the Congressman would lead Robson 55-31 percent. The poll was taken just after Rep. Schweikert initially said he was considering entering the race. Adding him to the gubernatorial ballot test question found Schweikert trailing badly with only 11 percent support.

An August, Noble Predictive Insights survey (Aug. 11-18; 365 registered Arizona Republican voters) gave Robson a 37-27 percent advantage over Rep. Biggs. This poll, however, appears to be an outlier.

Previously, four other surveys were released since the beginning of the year from four different pollsters and all cast Rep. Biggs with a substantial advantage. Within the four studies, Biggs averaged 55 percent preference among Republican primary voting respondents as compared to 20 percent for Robson.

The eventual Republican nominee after the Aug. 4, 2026, primary election will face incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). Polling is already forecasting a close race irrespective of who becomes the ultimate GOP challenger.

With a tight Governor’s race, two open US House seats, and either primary or general election competition in five of the state’s nine congressional districts, Arizona will be a key electoral state in the 2026 midterm cycle.