Category Archives: 2024 Election

Problems for Both Parties

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 13, 2025

House

It appears that both major political parties have problems to overcome in order to achieve success in the 2026 congressional midterm elections.

Earlier this month, we produced a Political Update that found Democratic voter registration is down in all 31 states that record a voter’s political affiliation (Democrats Down in All States). In comparison, Republican registration under the same time parameters is up as a percentage to the whole in 23 of the 31 states. The Independent, or Non-affiliated option is up in 18 of the party registration state universes.

Since the Democratic downturn appears at least partially related to a reduction in their traditional share of younger and new voters, this is a serious trend that the party leaders must address.

The Republicans, however, also have a potential enthusiasm problem — or perhaps an organizational problem — which could be a warning sign for the 2026 midterm elections.

The Down Ballot political blog mathematicians have been researching the special elections held after the 2024 presidential contest and have illustrated that Republican performance in almost every instance has significantly underperformed the baseline that President Donald Trump set last November.

So far in 2025, there have been 29 special elections for state legislature (27) and the US House of Representatives (2) in 12 states. In two instances, state Senate seats in Iowa and Pennsylvania, Democratic candidates converted traditional GOP districts and seats where, according to The Down Ballot calculations, the Republican candidate underperformed the combined Trump-Kamala Harris total by a net 25 (Iowa) and 16 (Pennsylvania) percentage points.

The mean average Republican underperformance factor in all 29 special election districts is 16.4 percent under Trump’s performance against Harris, and 12.2 percent below his standing against President Joe Biden in 2020.

Earlier this week, on Tuesday, June 10, six state legislative special elections were held — three in Florida, two in Oklahoma, and one in Massachusetts. The result pattern was mixed. In Oklahoma, though in a strongly Democratic district, the Republican nominee, again according to The Down Ballot statisticians, ran a whopping net 50 percentage points behind the combined Trump vs. Harris 2024 recorded vote.

Looking at the other Oklahoma state House special election, the Republican candidate won the seat but fell below the Trump vs. Harris combined percentage by a net 13 points.

Yet, in a Massachusetts state Senate special election, the Republican candidate overperformed, losing the election by just 21 votes, which proved a net five percentage point increase over the 2024 presidential result.

Republican candidates held all three seats the party risked in the June 10 Florida special elections, one in the state Senate and two in the state House. Yet, they again fell below the Trump Republican performance standard, this time by a net nine, 11, and 21 percentage points.

The question that must be asked in reflecting on this data is whether the Republican candidates are underperforming, or is President Trump simply an over-achiever? The answer could be a combination of the two scenarios. What has become clear, however, is that a Trump voter is not necessarily a Republican partisan, and many are not habitual voters. This means a significant number of individuals within the Trump coalition are simply unlikely to participate in a special election even though they come to the polls when the President himself is on the ballot.

Furthermore, it is also unlikely that the Republican special election underperformance is a result of people changing their allegiance as a protest to the Trump Administration. Rather, it is probable that the most prolific reason for the GOP’s lesser 2025 track record is failing to convince enough of their coalition to return to the polls for the irregular and under-publicized elections.

Pertaining to the 2026 congressional midterms, both parties must return to basics in order to energize their coalitions. Democrats must find a solution to their young and new voter problem, while Republicans must develop better messaging to convince the casual Trump voter to cast a ballot to help their President’s allies.

The “What Happened In 2024” Report

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2024

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 9, 2025

2024 Election

The Catalist research organization released their exhaustive report on the 2024 election and provided some detailed conclusions about the electorate’s voting behavior from the most recent presidential election.

Some of their conclusions, such as President Donald Trump performing better with minority – particularly young non-white males – non-college, and younger voters have already been brought forth through various media reports. Catalist confirms some of those conclusions but goes much further in explaining how the electorate is performing, which could lead to potential future vote pattern changes.

As the Catalist principals point out, the 2024 election came close to reaching the record 64 percent eligible voter participation factor marked in 2020. In the battleground states, defined as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the participation rate reached 70 percent of the eligible population. This means among registered voters in the battleground states, turnout reached or exceeded 80 percent.

While much attention has been given to President Trump’s stronger performance among blacks, and especially young male blacks, which is the historical best of any modern day Republican presidential candidate, it is the Hispanic numbers that were particularly noteworthy and may give future Republican candidates in down ballot races a new persuasion universe … assuming they can find the right messaging.

Catalist claims that since President Barack Obama was first elected in 2008, the size of the Hispanic CVAP (Citizen Voting Age Population) has grown by a factor of 80 percent to 34.7 million people. The Hispanic portion in relation to the whole voting universe has risen from seven percent in 2012 to 10 percent in 2024. In two battleground states, Arizona and Nevada, Hispanics account for 18 and 17 percent of the respective state electorates.

The Catalist 2024 report methodology tracked the decline in Democratic performance as opposed to the increase in the Republican support figures. Therefore, among Hispanics nationally, the Democratic support factor dropped from a high of 70 percent in 2016 (for Hillary Clinton) to just 54 percent for Kamala Harris.

Among Latino men, Harris’s support total dropped below the majority mark to 47 percent. In the battleground states, the Hispanic male Democratic support figure fell to 48 percent from a high of 62 percent for President Obama in 2012.

Comparing Harris’s performance among Hispanic males to President Joe Biden’s total, her number within this same cell group receded a full 10 percentage points.

Additionally, the Catalist report finds that the overall race percentages have significantly changed since 2012.

From the report:

“Over the past several election cycles, Democrats have retained their multiracial coalition while Republicans have significantly diversified their own coalition. In 2012, when former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was the GOP [presidential] nominee, roughly one in 10 Republican presidential voters was a person of color; by 2024 that figure rose to 1 in 5 Republican voters.

“Latino voters comprised 9% of Trump’s 2024 coalition, up from 5% of Romney 2012 voters. AAPI (American Asian Pacific Islander) voters comprised 4% of Trump 2024 voters, up from 2% of Romney voters. Finally, Black voters comprised 3% of Trump 2024 voters, up from 1% of Romney voters.”

Another curious portion of the report, among many, is that President Trump performed better with his minority coalition in non-battleground states than those widely considered as the most competitive. This suggests that the trend, if it transfers to other future GOP candidates, could potentially become transformational.

A further interesting point was the Catalist report’s study of what was termed “rotating voters.” The project compared individuals who regularly vote with those who pick and choose the elections in which they participate.

Again, from the report:

“In 2012, there were more than 103 million repeat voters (from 2008), and President Obama’s support levels shrank among this group, from 52.4% to 50.9%. At the same time, groups of Democrats rotated in and out of the electorate: 27 million voters dropped off from 2008, who supported Obama at 61%; but they were replaced by 24 million voters who supported him at 58%, still a wide margin. Altogether, this resulted in lower turnout from 2012 overall and a smaller [Obama] margin of victory.”

In 2024, the report indicates that 126 million voters returned from the 2020 election, the highest repeat figure recorded since the Catalist monitoring began. Harris, however, lost a projected two percentage points from President Biden’s support total within this voter universe. A total of 26 million new voters came into the 2024 electorate, but less than 50 percent of the group backed the Democratic nominee: hence, one of the key underlying reasons for the final result.

There is much more in the comprehensive Catalist report. A link at the top of this post is included to provide access to the full document.

A Budding Realignment

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Voting Trends

Former Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

New post-election analysis reports are being released suggesting the foundation for political realignment is being laid, but whether the Republicans can effectively change their vote targeting strategies to take advantage of this new opportunity remains the unanswered question.

There was a great deal of discussion and analysis about the minority voting trends in the 2024 election, but significantly fewer assessments were published or aired pertaining to the changes in the youth vote.

Exit polling was providing some data, but now more reliable information from actual precinct voting totals is available for analysis.

The media reporters highlight exit polling on election nights, because the information is quickly obtained, and it provides them with filler information for the early post poll-closing hours.

The problem is exit that polling is not particularly accurate, because the sampling is not altogether random. The methodology is often flawed because the sample, which generally consists of in-person interviews at polling places and early voters contacted via telephone, is not systematically drawn. In exit polling, individuals typically volunteer to participate. This further skews the sampling universe because the participants are not wholly representative of the active electorate.

The Blue Rose Research entity, a Democratic survey research firm, released a report about the minority and age segmentation data based upon actual votes in statistically significant precincts. Their results, particularly in reference to the youth vote, are quite surprising and could further indicate that the electorate may be in the beginning phase of political realignment.

The Blue Rose report confirms that President Donald Trump performed better among minority voters than most other Republicans, particularly among Hispanic men, but his non-Hispanic White youth support figures are actually astonishing.

Within the White male 18-20 years of age segment, former Vice President Kamala Harris received only 28 percent support. The numbers from this particular study track only the percentage preference for Harris. While the Trump numbers are obviously higher than 28 percent, they are not likely at 72 percent since minor party candidates attracted some support.

The highest level of support for Harris among White men in the age segmentation comes both from those in the 36-38 age range and the 74-75 category. She reached approximately 42 percent support with both of these groups. A second low point for her, 31 percent, is found among those in the 58-60 age segment.

The pendulum swing charting the White female vote is almost identical to that of the male category, but the support numbers for Harris were uniformly higher. Still, she is generally underwater even within this female segment. The Harris highwater mark with White women is 51 percent found in the 27-29 age range. The low is 40 percent within the 57-59 age grouping.

Looking at minority voters, we see Trump’s improvement scores comparing his 2024 support performance to that from 2020. The President gained 12 percentage points among self-described moderate Hispanics and eight percent overall. Among Asians, his improvement percentage among the moderates was nine percent and six percent in the overall Asian grouping.

Despite much coverage of Trump’s stronger standing within the Black community, his strongest segment was only a plus two percent among self-described conservative Blacks, and just one percent overall. Comparing his 2016 Black support factor with 2024, we see a greater gap. Matched with his performance from eight years ago, Trump improved eight percentage points with conservative Blacks and an average of four percent within the entire Black voter cell sample.

Within the male People of Color category, the youngest voters perform best for President Trump. Here, the 18-20 age segment recorded only a 50 percent support factor for Harris. The male chart then continues upward until reaching an apex of 70 percent Harris support within the 74-75 year olds before tapering off a few points as the male People of Color voter segment moves into the 80s.

The female People of Color segments, across the board, are Harris’ strongest supporters with little variance. From the youngest to oldest voter segments, the female POC category performed between 72 and 80 percent favorable for Harris.

As we can see, the Trump campaign opened the conversion door for these traditionally Democratic racial and age voter population segments. It is now up to the GOP strategists to see if they can cement these types of numbers for future Republican candidates.

The Closest House Races (Part I)

US House Balance of Power / Source: US House of Representatives Press Gallery

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 5, 2025

House

Now that the 2024 election numbers are all finalized and certified, we can begin to project battlegrounds for 2026. Republicans currently hold 218 seats while the Democrats have 215.

Not surprisingly, the House of Representatives’ very close partisan division yielded several tight finishes. In all, 29 House winners claimed their seats with less than 52 percent of the vote. As is the situation within the overall House chamber, the 11 closest winners are divided just about evenly between the two parties.

California Democrat Adam Gray unseated then-Rep. John Duarte (R) by just 187 votes in 2024.

In the 2024 election, the 11 most competitive House races were decided by less than two percentage points. Republicans won six of these tight decisions and Democrats five.

The closest race came in northern California, where Democrat Adam Gray unseated then-Rep. John Duarte (R) by just 187 votes. In 2022, the two battled to a difference of 564 votes but in the opposite finishing order.

The 2024 result was a bit surprising because President Donald Trump carried California’s 13th District by more than five percentage points. Seeing a Republican incumbent lose, even in such a close margin, with the top of the ticket finishing rather strongly, was unique in this election. Duarte was the only Republican incumbent to lose in a district that President Trump clinched.

Regardless of the reasons for Duarte’s razor-thin defeat, we can expect this Modesto-anchored CD to again be at the forefront of House battlegrounds next year.

The second closest House contest was also found in California, but this race was located more than 300 miles south of CA-13. Orange County Democrat Derek Tran unseated two-term Rep. Michelle Steel (R) by only 653 votes, or two-tenths of one percent. Rep. Steel has already filed a 2026 campaign committee, so seeing a re-match here in 2026 is a strong possibility.

Another contest where the challenger came within less than 1,000 votes of winning occurred in eastern Iowa. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) slipped past former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) with a 799-vote margin. This, however, is not Miller-Meeks’ closest finish. When she first won the seat in 2020, she did so by only a six-vote difference. Since Bohannan also ran in 2022, it is unclear whether she will return for a third attempt. Regardless of who the Democrats field in the next election, this again will be a major targeted race.

The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission members drew the state’s new congressional seat as a politically marginal district that would reflect a changing electorate. Northern Colorado’s 8th District, located to the north and northeast of Denver and awarded to the state in the 2020 census, has so far performed as intended.

In 2022, then-state Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D) won here with only 48.4 percent of the vote, which translated into a half-point victory margin. In 2024, then-state Rep. Gabe Evans (R) unseated the Congresswoman with a similar percentage, 48.9 percent, and a victory spread of seven-tenths of a point.

Evans’ upset victory proved a major reason for the Republicans being able to hold onto their small majority. Look for another tight contest in this perennial battleground district next year.

The next two results feature Democratic incumbents winning with similarly small margins as shown above. Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) and Jared Golden (D-ME) both won re-election — a 20th time for Kaptur and third for Golden, but with less than a percentage point to spare.

Rep. Kaptur was first elected to her Toledo-anchored seat in 1982. She is the fourth-longest serving current House member and second-most senior in the Democratic Conference, behind only former Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD). Redistricting, however, has placed her in a plus-6 Republican district according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, which largely explains her tight finish this year. She defeated then-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R) by only seven-tenths of a percentage point in November, or a raw vote spread of 2,382 votes.

Maine’s Congressman Golden (D-Lewiston) continues to hang onto the state’s northern seat by small margins despite President Trump carrying the district with large vote spreads. The Pine Tree State’s Ranked Choice Voting system certainly helps Golden, and it did so again in November, largely enabling him to outlast then-state Rep. Austin Theriault (R) by 2,706 votes in the RCV round, which translated into 50.3 percent of the vote.

There is a chance that Rep. Golden will enter the open Governor’s race in 2026, so this lean Republican seat could be open for the next election. Theriault is likely to run again, so expect ME-2 once more to become a top GOP conversion target next year.

Tomorrow, we will look at the five remaining House races where the winner failed to reach the 51 percent plateau.

NY Rep. Torres Explains Dems’ Loss

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Jan. 24, 2025

2024 Election

President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Some political analysts are saying that the 2024 election could prove to be the launching pad of a national political realignment.

The change in voting patterns, particularly among the working class, minorities, youth, and the highly educated, could be suggesting that we will see a different electoral paradigm develop should the 2024 result prove to be something more than a historical anomaly.

The Free Press news site published an op-ed from New York Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres earlier this week entitled: “The Rising Democratic Coalition Fell. Now What?”

The Representative’s piece analyzes why the Democrats lost the 2024 election and how the party can return to its winning ways.

In the op-ed, Rep. Torres highlights how President Donald Trump made inroads in minority communities, and particularly those within the Empire State’s 15th Congressional District, which he represents.

Torres illustrates that his Bronx-anchored district, which is approximately 90 percent minority (of the combined minority voting age population, the percentage breakdown is as follows: 51.4 percent Hispanic; 42.4 percent Black; 4.3 percent Asian; 3.2 percent Other), saw a 22 percent increase in turnout for Donald Trump in 2024 compared to Barack Obama’s re-election performance in 2012. In that year, President Obama received 96 percent of the vote from the precincts that today comprise the 15th CD, while in this election Kamala Harris dropped to a support figure of 74 percent.

Rep. Torres describes Trump’s performance in his district and others like it as being more impressive than the end result in the Rust Belt where the President “connected with” the working class whites from that region.

Torres says: “[President Trump’s] most improbable and formidable feat lies in chipping away at the blue wall in urban America. Few places saw a more impressive swing toward Trump in 2024 than my own deeply Democratic congressional district in the Bronx.”

The Congressman explains his reasoning in the following paragraphs:

The original sin of the new left is that it speaks for people of color without actually speaking to them—and listening. For if the new left actually spoke to people of color, it would never embrace movements like #DefundThePolice, it would never use terms like Latinx or Latine, and it would never have kept the Biden administration from acting decisively to secure the border in the face of an overwhelming migrant crisis that, in the end, cost us the election.

Listening to working-class people of color means unshackling ourselves from self-anointed socialist saviors who speak falsely in their name.

There is a difference between the beliefs of communities of color and the beliefs projected onto those communities by elites. The pattern of mistaking the latter for the former is what has made the Democratic Party lose touch with working-class voters of all backgrounds. (Full story here: The Free Press)

It is probable that we will soon see Torres put his ideas to work in a New York statewide campaign. It is no secret that he is testing the political waters for a 2026 Democratic primary challenge against Gov. Kathy Hochul.

Writing such an article is another signal that Rep. Torres is preparing a gubernatorial run with a strategy of moving closer to the political center in contrast to Gov. Hochul positioning herself on the party’s left flank. While Rep. Torres would be an attractive candidate in a New York general election, it will be most interesting to see if he can win a Democratic primary without being the most liberal contender in the race.

The odds of Torres winning the party nomination may be a bit better than in years past, however. In addition to Gov. Hochul’s low job approval rating, Donald Trump’s 2024 enhanced performance in the state versus the support numbers he garnered in 2020 suggest the Congressman may see a more hospitable electorate.

New York could be on the threshold of at least incremental change. Trump improved his standing in all 51 voting entities when comparing his 2024 performance to that of 2020, but none was stronger (net 11-point increase) than the state of his birth.

House Re-Match Prospects

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 20, 2024

House

Pennsylvania Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown)

Eleven members of the House of Representatives lost their seats on Nov. 5, and several have already said they are open to seeking a re-match in 2026. With such a small majority margin in the new Congress, House control will again be up for grabs in 2026.

The latest to make such a comment is Pennsylvania Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown), who lost to state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Emmaus) by a narrow 50.5 – 49.5 percent majority, or a margin of 4,062 votes from 403,314 ballots cast. Wild said that she is not ruling out returning for a re-match.

Of the 11 defeated members, seven are Republicans as compared to four Democrats. One of the Republicans, Oregon Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, has been nominated as President-Elect Donald Trump’s Secretary of Labor, so she will certainly not be returning for another House race.

California Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) lost the closest House race in the country, falling by just 187 votes. While Duarte said he would consider running for Congress again, he is also being floated as the Director of the Bureau of Reclamation in the Trump Administration.

Those who have made no comment about future plans include Reps. Mike Garcia (R-CA), Yadira Caraveo (D-CO), Brandon Williams (R-NY), and Matt Cartwright (D-PA).

Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) has not made any definitive comments about her future, but she certainly could return to seek a rematch with the man who unseated her, freshman Rep. Nick Begich, III (R).

Looking at a different option, Peltola would likely easily win the Democratic nomination for what will be an open Governor’s position. Incumbent Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, so expect a major open-seat battle in this race. Since Alaska voters kept their top four Ranked Choice Voting system, the Democrats have a better chance of scoring an upset win.

While New York Rep. Marc Molinaro (R) has not yet said he would seek a re-match, there is speculation that he could be under consideration to become the Republican nominee in the special election for Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-NY) seat just to the north of his own district.

In New York, special elections do not have primaries. When Ms. Stefanik is confirmed as the US Ambassador to the United Nations the 15 Republican County Chairs will choose the replacement nominee. Therefore, the eventual winner could claim the position with as little as seven votes. The Republican nominee will be favored in the special election, but the New York special election certainly has the potential of becoming competitive.

Two-term California Rep. Michelle Steel (R) is further along the re-match path than any of the others. She has already filed a 2026 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission and is looking to reverse her 653-vote loss to attorney Derek Tran (D). The filing of a campaign committee does not necessarily mean a candidacy will follow, but Steel’s comments suggest that she is making an early commitment to running again.

Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY) was the biggest surprise winner of the 2022 election cycle and represented the most Democratic seat in the country to elect a Republican Congressman. He defeated then-Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen, who then returned this year to capture the seat with a two percentage point victory. D’Esposito is another who professes to be open to potentially seeking a re-match.

Regardless of whether we see multiple re-matches from the 2024 campaign, all of the aforementioned politically marginal districts will likely be in play two years from now.

It is likely we will see more seats becoming competitive in two years, but the re-match campaigns will certainly head the A-target lists for both parties.

Blackburn for Governor?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024

Governor

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

A surprising political development appears to be unfolding in Tennessee.

The state’s senior Senator, Marsha Blackburn (R), won a resounding 64-34 percent victory on Nov. 5 to secure a second term in her current position. Yet, in an unusual move, she continues to run ads after the election.

Gov. Bill Lee (R) cannot succeed himself in 2026, and the fact that Sen. Blackburn is still advertising suggests that she is testing the waters to enter the open Governor’s race.

Sen. Blackburn has a long and impressive record of winning Volunteer State elections. In addition to her two US Senate victories, Blackburn won eight political contests in a western Tennessee US House district, after serving one four-year term in the state Senate. She has been in elective office consecutively since the beginning of 1999.

Considering her electoral history and seeing Tennessee become such a strong one-party (Republican) state, the odds of Sen. Blackburn winning the governorship, especially when she has a free ride in her second Senate term, becomes a very realistic scenario.

In the past three presidential elections, President-Elect Donald Trump has secured 60.7, 60.7, and 64.2 percent in 2016, 2020, and 2024, respectively. Sen. Bill Hagerty (R) won his initial Senate term in 2020 with 62 percent of the vote. Gov. Lee scored win percentages of 60 and 65 percent in his 2018 and 2022 victorious runs. The state’s electorate has not voted for a Democratic presidential and vice presidential candidate since Bill Clinton and Al Gore were re-elected in 1996, and no Democrat has won a Senate seat since Gore was re-elected in 1990.

Therefore, the chances of the next GOP nominee holding the Tennessee Governor’s office in 2026 are extremely good.

The gubernatorial Republican primary could be a crowded affair and, if so, promises to be hard fought. Already making moves to enter the race is four-term Congressman John Rose (R-Cookeville). Other House members rumored to have an interest are Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville) and Mark Green (R-Clarksville). There has also been talk of Sen. Hagerty weighing his chances in a gubernatorial contest.

So far, not a great deal of movement has been perceived coming from the Democratic side. Those considering the Governor’s race include two Memphis state Senators, London Lamar and Raumesh Akbari.

Since Governor is the only elected state position, it is difficult for the party not holding the office to develop a statewide political farm system. With the Republicans securing an 8-1 advantage in the congressional delegation, and without Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) showing interest in running statewide, it becomes very difficult for the Democrats to mount a serious open statewide challenge without a well-known standard bearer.

It will be interesting to see just who moves forward with their own gubernatorial campaign, but should Sen. Blackburn enter the race it’s possible she could freeze the field.

The fact that she continues to run ads to increase her name ID and favorability ratings suggest her jumping into the Governor’s race is a real possibility. Additionally, should she run and win, Blackburn would be able to appoint her own successor in the Senate since she will not have to risk her seat to run in 2026. Therefore, Sen. Blackburn running for Governor would cause the federal GOP officials no hardship.