Author Archives: Jim Ellis

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 13, 2025

Senate

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (2008 file photo) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Yesterday, three-term New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) announced that she will not seek re-election next year, ending what will be a 30-year career in elective politics counting her time as Governor and in the state Senate.

Shaheen is now the fourth Senator, three of whom are Democrats, who will not seek re-election in 2026. While the national Senate map favors the Dems because they must protect only 13 of 35 in-cycle campaigns, having to defend three open seats, all of which are competitive (Minnesota; New Hampshire) to highly competitive (Michigan) decreases the party’s odds of reclaiming the Senate majority.

Sen. Shaheen is the first woman in American history to be elected as a Governor and US Senator. She first won her state Senate seat in southeastern New Hampshire in 1990 where she served three two-year terms. Elected Governor in 1996, she would again maintain her office for three two-year terms.

Attempting to move to the Senate in 2002, Shaheen lost to then-Rep. John E. Sununu (R) and was out of elective politics until 2008 when she returned to win that same Senate seat, defeating Sununu in a re-match.

In her three victorious Senate elections, Shaheen averaged 53.2 percent of the vote. Though not seeking re-election in 2026, Sen. Shaheen vows she is “not retiring.” She will serve the remainder of the current term and continue being an activist after she leaves office, according to her statements in yesterday’s video announcement.

The Shaheen decision is not particularly surprising. The Senator had not committed to running again and repeatedly said she would decide at a later date. A poll was released last week, however, (from Praecones Analytica; Feb. 26-March 1; 626 registered New Hampshire voters; online) that found her trailing former Gov. Chris Sununu (R) by eight percentage points with over 60 percent responding that they are concerned or somewhat concerned about the Senator’s age if she were to seek another six-year term. Sen. Shaheen, if she were to run in 2026 and serve through 2032 would be 85 years old.

Previously, Sununu indicated he was not interested in running for the Senate, but just recently stated that he might be reconsidering his position. Now that the seat will be open, Republican leaders will engage a “full court press” to recruit the former four-term Governor into the Senate race. For the Democrats, the leading prospective candidate appears to be four-term 1st District Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester).

First elected in 2018, Pappas has secured the eastern New Hampshire seat that was once considered the most competitive district in the nation, defeating more incumbents than re-electing them from 2004 until Pappas’ victory in 2018. Other potential Democratic candidates include former Rep. Annie Kuster and potentially freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua), though she would likely yield to Pappas if he decides to run.

Should Sununu not run, expect former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown to possibly make another attempt at returning to the Senate from New Hampshire. In 2014, he challenged Sen. Shaheen but lost 51-48 percent. Other potential Republican candidates are Manchester Mayor Jay Ruais and Executive Councilor Janet Stevens. Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), a former Senator who was defeated for re-election in 2016 but then elected Governor in 2024, would be likely to seek re-election instead of a return to the Senate.

Chris Sununu became only the second person to win four consecutive Governors’ elections in New Hampshire. His Senate candidacy would clearly give the Republicans’ their best chance of converting the seat. With another Republican as the party standard bearer, Democrats would again have the advantage in the general election.

Should Rep. Pappas run, count on a major effort from both parties to capture the swing 1st District. With such a small House majority, both parties will be striving to win every possible seat, and the NH-1 seat becoming open, noting the region’s long history of flipping between the two parties, means that we will see a major national campaign being fought in this CD.

With the Shaheen retirement, the New Hampshire political musical chairs show will soon begin. This open Senate seat, and what could be a highly competitive open House district, means the Granite State will become one of the key battleground regions in the 2026 midterm election.

Michigan: Inconsistencies Galore

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 12, 2025

Polling

The Target Insyght data organization, polling for the Michigan Information & Research Service (MIRS), released a new Wolverine State political survey, and the results are head-scratching to say the least.

The survey (March 3-6; 600 registered Michigan voters with over-samples of 344 Democratic voters and 336 Republican voters) produced results that are difficult to understand. While having a general election sampling universe comprised equally of Democrats and Republicans, it is unusual to see a Secretary of State, Jocelyn Benson (D) in this case, posting a surprising 84 percent name identification while three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan (I), who led a turnaround of a troubled city, recording only a 58 percent recognition factor.

Another conclusion finds Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) showing a 52:43 percent positive to negative personal favorability index while former Congressman and 2024 US Senate Republican nominee Mike Rogers is found with a rather dismal and inexplicable 23:46 percent index. This, from a sample fully half of which is comprised of Republican voters.

Yet, when the same sample was polled for a hypothetical open Senate contest between Gov. Whitmer and former Rep. Rogers, the ballot test result projected only a one-point 42-41 percent edge for the Democratic Governor. Comparing the favorability indexes for each candidate with the head-to-head ballot test result produces a highly inconsistent conclusion that brings the overall poll accuracy factor into question.

Parenthetically, Gov. Whitmer has made no mention of having a desire to run for the state’s open Senate seat now that Democratic incumbent Gary Peters has announced he will not seek re-election. Instead, it is obvious that she is looking to build a presidential organization for the 2028 open national campaign.

Though Rogers’ favorability index is a net minus 23 points, he still fares well on other individual ballot tests. In 2024, Rogers lost to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) by just 19,006 votes from just under 5.6 million cast ballots statewide. The aggregate polling also did not correctly depict the closeness of the end result, since Rogers trailed by a mean average of 2.3 percentage points and led in only one of 13 surveys conducted in late October through the November 2024 election.

In the current Target Insyght poll, Rogers trails former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (D) by two percentage points, 46-44 percent. Using the two-point under-poll factor that we saw develop in the 2024 Senate campaign, the Buttigieg-Rogers race likely devolves into a dead heat. Again, this is a much different result than one would expect when looking at the personal favorability numbers.

The Governor’s ballot test result is also questionable. According to the TI data, Secretary of State Benson would lead Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) and Mayor Duggan, 42-30-21 percent in a hypothetical open general election campaign.

This is an odd result, since one would think Duggan, a Democrat until he announced as an Independent to run for Governor, would be drawing more from the Democratic base, especially in Detroit, than the Republican sector. Therefore, this split, meaning the Republican candidate is only getting 30 percent when the sampling universe is split 50/50, seems unrealistic.

Additionally, the Benson favorability index is 49:35 percent positive to negative as compared to Mayor Duggan’s 42:16 percent. This is further evidence that the ballot test result is contradictory with the personal favorability factors when seeing the latter ratio is a net 12 percentage points better than the former.

The Democratic gubernatorial figures also seem weighted in Ms. Benson’s favor. Here, she leads Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrest, Attorney General Dana Nessel, and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson by a 55-12-12-3 percent spread. Pitted against two other statewide office holders, and one would guess the name ID metric is similar for all three, it is again surprising to see Benson holding such a commanding lead.

Obviously, the Michigan political situation will change greatly between today and late next year, and we will see many polls of the Wolverine State races. It is likely that the many inconsistencies found in this Target Insyght poll will be rectified through further research.

President or Senator?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 11, 2025

Governor

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R)

A sitting Governor and a recently retired ex-state chief executive have key political decisions to make soon.

Both Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) and former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) are reportedly weighing running for the Senate in 2026 and/or organizing a 2028 presidential campaign. Each says he is not yet ready to announce any future political plans.

A third Governor, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer (D), is in a similar position but she is more definitive about running for President in 2028, so it is highly doubtful that she will enter her state’s open 2026 Senate race.

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D)

The two men are under intense pressure from party leaders to run for the Senate next year. Polling shows both Gov. Kemp, term-limited in 2026, and ex-Gov. Cooper, who was ineligible to seek a third term in 2024 because of North Carolina’s term limit law, leading their respective incumbent Senator of the opposite party, Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and Thom Tillis (R-NC).

The latest Georgia poll (WPA Intelligence; Jan. 14-15; 500 likely Georgia voters; live interview) projects Gov. Kemp topping Sen. Ossoff, 46-40 percent, while the other tested potential challengers, i.e., Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), and Mike Collins (R-Jackson), all trail.

A new Public Policy Polling survey of North Carolina general election voters (March 4-5; 662 registered North Carolina voters) sees two-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R) beginning his re-election effort four points behind Cooper, 47-43 percent.

While it is typical to see a Republican trailing in a North Carolina poll – there is usually a two-point under-poll factor for GOP candidates in the state – a poor Tillis job approval ratio of 25:46 percent favorable to unfavorable according to the PPP data should be of obvious concern. Some of the disapproval is coming from Republican voters, however, who don’t believe Sen. Tillis has been sufficiently loyal to President Donald Trump.

Gov. Kemp says he understands the need to make a decision in the near future but will not do so until the Georgia state legislative session adjourns shortly after the beginning of next month. Kemp is also chairman of the Republican Governors’ Association, which he says significantly adds to his time commitments for the 2026 election cycle.

For his part, Cooper says he will make a decision about running for the Senate “in the next couple of months.”

For North Carolina’s Cooper, running for President may be an easier decision than for Gov. Kemp. In what will be an open 2028 presidential campaign for both parties, the Democratic field will be in free-for-all status because they do not have an incumbent Vice President. With the paucity of Democratic elected officials coming from the south, Cooper could reasonably build a southern strategy in the Democratic primaries that would make him a major factor with a large number of committed delegates.

For Gov. Kemp, the presidential road to the Republican nomination would be rockier since incumbent VP J.D. Vance should have the inside track to the 2028 party nomination. While sitting Vice Presidents have often not fared well in general elections, they have been near perfect in securing party nominations. With Vance already knowing the 2028 presidential campaign will be open, he would begin such a campaign with a major advantage.

At this point, however, since we usually don’t see recent Governors running for Senate because they often find the transition from an executive to being one of 100 in a legislative body difficult, it would not be shocking to see both men decline the Senate opportunity.

If so, the Georgia Republicans are ready with a political bench. Already the aforementioned three Representatives: Carter, McCormick, and Collins, are waiting in the wings to run for the Senate, and there are seven additional GOP statewide officers each with a winning electoral record.

In North Carolina, the Democrats have five sitting statewide officials, although two are unlikely to run for the Senate. Gov. Josh Stein (D) was just elected in November and probably would not give up his current position so quickly to run for the Senate.

Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, who was elected in 1996 when defeating NASCAR champion Richard Petty (R) and will turn 80 years old shortly after the November 2026 election, is another who will not run for the Senate.

The other office holders, including Lt. Gov. Rachel Hunt, the daughter of former Gov. Jim Hunt and an ex-Charlotte area state Senator, could become Senate candidates. The other statewide Democratic officials who were elected in 2024 and would have a 2026 free ride, are Attorney General and former Congressman Jeff Jackson and Superintendent of Public Instruction Mo Green.

In the US House delegation, Reps. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill/Rocky Mount), Deborah Ross (D-Raleigh), and Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/Chapel Hill) could conceivably enter a US Senate race. Therefore, even without MCooper, the Democrats will have credible options with whom to challenge Sen. Tillis.

Regardless of who challenges the incumbent Senators in Georgia and North Carolina, both states will be on the 2026 political front burner.

“Approval Voting:”
A Better Alternative

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 10, 2025

Mayor

Alderwoman Cara Spencer / Photo by Paul Sableman

Last week, the city of St. Louis held municipal elections under a new voting system. In 2021, they elected their mayor using Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) as an alternative to a plurality system with a runoff. For the 2025 elections, the election officials are experimenting again, this time with an alternative that appears fairer.

Obviously not satisfied with RCV, the city election officials chose the “Approval Voting” method. Under this system, people have as many votes to disperse as there are contenders.

In the St. Louis mayoral Democratic primary four candidates were on the ballot. Each voter could disperse four votes within the field, but without assigning multiple votes to any one candidate. Therefore, if strongly in favor of a particular candidate, the individual voter may issue one of his or her votes toward that contender and then not vote for any of the others. Doing so would have the force of giving the voter’s favored candidate three extra votes.

The Gateway City mayoral primary was held Tuesday, and the approval results found Mayor Tishaura Jones’ (D) re-election bid in serious trouble.

In the initial vote, Cara Spencer, a member of the St. Louis Board of Aldermen and Jones’ 2021 opponent, crushed the incumbent 68-33 percent.

The other two candidates, the city’s Recorder of Deeds Michael Butler and businessman Andrew Jones received 25 and 14 percent of the approval vote universe, which led to a cumulative total percentage of 140 percent. The high aggregate number shows that many voters were dispersing multiple votes throughout the candidate field.

Spencer and Mayor Jones will now advance into the April 8 general municipal election. In that vote, the electorate will return to casting their ballots in a traditional way: voting once for one candidate.

The Approval Voting method appears as a more equitable way of dispersing votes if the goal is to eliminate plurality victories. The major flaw in RCV is that some individuals cast votes in multiple rounds while others are limited to their initial vote.

Under RCV, the ballot caster would rank his or her preferences among the listed candidates. In the St. Louis Mayor’s example, an RCV system would have ordered the candidates with their first choice as “Ranked 1,” second choice “Ranked 2,” etc.

When all ballots are cast, the votes are then counted. If no contender receives majority support, the last place candidate is eliminated, and the election officials must find all of the ballots that ranked the last place finisher as the first choice. At that point, those voters who ranked the last place finisher first are isolated and just their second choices are added to the aggregate count. This process continues until one candidate finally reaches the 50 percent plateau through the benefit of extra voting.

The flaw in RCV is that it creates uneven planes and allows the extremist voters – those who vote for the least popular candidates and are often the most unrelenting voters on either side of the ideological spectrum – to provide the victory margin for a particular candidate.

While the RCV proponents say their system elects the candidate with the broadest support base, in reality it has proven to generally elect someone who commands lesser initial backing.

The Approval Voting method appears to correct the RCV flaw in that it would return all voters to equal standing. Therefore, eliminating plurality finishes with the Approval Voting method seems to accomplish the goal of creating a majority and where the candidate attracting the most actual votes, wins.

Rep. Sylvester Turner Passes Away

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 7, 2025

House

Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston)

Freshman Texas US Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston), just hours after attending President Donald Trump’s address to Congress on Tuesday, suddenly passed away, thus leaving this congressional seat vacant for the second time in less than a year.

Rep. Turner’s predecessor, the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D), won 14 consecutive US House elections from this center city district until she succumbed to cancer in July 2024. Therefore, this will be the second time in seven months that the 18th District will be vacant due to an incumbent’s death.

Rep. Turner had earlier been diagnosed with bone cancer but declared himself cancer-free before the 2024 election. Prior to winning the US House seat, Turner served two four-year terms as mayor of Houston and for 27 years in the Texas House of Representatives.

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule a special election to replace the late Congressman. Candidates will compete in an initial vote. If no one receives majority support, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, will advance to a runoff election that the Governor would subsequently schedule.

The Y-shaped 18th District is fully contained within Harris County and lies within the confines of the city of Houston, encompassing the downtown area. The seat is strongly Democratic.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+43. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 73.6D – 24.4R partisan lean, and the Down Ballot political blog prognosticators rank TX-18 as the 46th-safest seat in the House Democratic Conference. Therefore, the battle to replace the late Congressman will largely be conducted with Democratic candidates.

After Rep. Jackson Lee passed away, the local politicians yielded to her daughter, Erica Lee Carter (D), to fill the balance of her mother’s term. Carter did not compete for the full term, but questions will now arise as to whether she will run for the seat in what will be a new special election likely within two to three months.

Another probable candidate is former Houston City Councilwoman and US Senate candidate Amanda Edwards. In 2024, Edwards challenged then-Rep. Jackson Lee but failed to force her into a runoff election. Approximately 10 state House districts and two state Senate seats overlap Congressional District 18, not to mention various Houston City Councilmembers, and Harris County officials who also share constituents at least to a small degree. Therefore, we could see a number of candidates emerge from different sectors.

The 18th CD has over 576,000 eligible voters, and a voting age population comprised of over 80 percent minority residents (39.8 percent Hispanic; 34.4 percent Black; and 6.2 percent Asian). A total of 19.4 percent are White, with less than one percent mixed or multiple race.

The Turner vacancy causes the Democratic Conference to recede to 214 members as compared to the Republicans’ 218. The two vacant Florida House seats from which resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) left to join the OAN news network, and which Rep. Mike Waltz (R) did likewise to become President Trump’s National Security Advisor, will remain unoccupied until the April 1 special general elections. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) will be confirmed soon as US Ambassador to the United Nations, thus dropping the GOP to 217 members.

Is Sherrod Brown Tipping His Hand?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 6, 2025

Senate/Governor

Former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D)

Former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) just published a long 4,000-plus word essay in the New Republic magazine in which he tries to chart for the Democratic Party a new path forward. (Read article here: New Republic magazine article)

The article also may signal Brown’s willingness to make an electoral comeback attempt in either the 2026 Ohio Senate or Governor’s race.

In the article, Brown says, “… Democrats must reckon with how far our party has strayed from our New Deal roots.” And, “How we see ourselves — the party of the people, the party of the working class and the middle class — no longer matches up with what most voters think.”

He further explains, “… our party’s problem with workers isn’t a two or a four-year problem. It goes back at least to the North American Free Trade Agreement.” And, “People … expected Republicans to sell them out to multinational corporations. But we were supposed to be the party that looked out for these workers — to be on their side, to stand up to corporate interests. And as a national party, we failed.”

One of his situational remedies is that, “Democrats must become the workers’ party again.” And, he says, “To become the workers’ party, we need to better understand workers and their lives, and we need to have ordinary workers more actively involved in the party and its decisions.”

While former Sen. Brown’s message toward the working class may have political attractiveness, this same theme landed on deaf ears throughout the very areas of Ohio that his revised message targets. In the 2024 Senate race, which he lost to newly elected Sen. Bernie Moreno (R), 50.1 – 46.5 percent, the incumbent Democrat could only manage to carry eight of the state’s 88 counties.

Seven of those eight domains — all in Ohio’s metropolitan counties and containing the cities of Akron, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, and Toledo — also voted for Kamala Harris. In fact, the only rural, coal country county that both Harris and Brown carried was Athens County, found along the West Virginia border.

The lone county that Brown won where Harris lost was Lorain County, a western suburban Cleveland entity that Brown represented during his seven-term tenure in the US House. All of Ohio’s other 80 counties voted for both Donald Trump and Moreno.

In Ohio’s 2026 political situation, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is term-limited, meaning there will be an open Governor’s race. The GOP nominee will likely be either businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who already carries an endorsement from President Trump, or two-term Attorney General Dave Yost.

In the Senate, appointed incumbent Sen. Jon Husted (R), the state’s former two-term Lieutenant Governor and previous two-term Secretary of State, will be defending his seat on the ballot for the first time.

Therefore, if former Sen. Brown is planning to make a run for either office, this article may be laying the groundwork as to how he will deliver his pitch during the 2026 campaign to an electorate that just rejected him.

His long record of winning, however, through campaigns for the Ohio House of Representatives, Secretary of State, US House, and US Senate, and losing only one time since originally being elected in 1974, suggests he will be a formidable candidate able to develop a unique message should he decide to run for either of the statewide offices.

It will be interesting to see what Brown decides, since he is clearly the strongest potential candidate in the Ohio Democratic stable despite his 2024 loss. The Governor’s race might make the most sense for a political comeback instead of attempting to regain a seat that he lost.

To begin with, the Governor’s race is open, and the term will be four years. The Senate race would be against an appointed, but well-known, incumbent and decided upon federal issues that clearly cut against the Democrats in the last election.

Additionally, even if Brown were to defeat Sen. Husted in the 2026 special election, he would then have to immediately turn around and face another campaign in the 2028 election cycle for the full six-year term.

The Ohio situation is worth monitoring because as Sen. Brown points out in his article, change must happen if the Democratic Party is to quickly rebound from their 2024 losses.

Sununu Would Top Shaheen

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 5, 2025

Senate

Former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R)

A newly released statewide poll suggests that former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) would defeat Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D). This conclusion derives from a hypothetical 2026 US Senate survey that a Granite State media outlet sponsored. The poll also uncovered a Shaheen negative of which there is little she can do to reverse.

The political study, commissioned through the NH Journal online news site (conducted by Praecones Analytica; Feb. 26-March 1; 626 registered New Hampshire voters; online), finds Sununu topping Sen. Shaheen 54.4 – 45.6 percent. Obviously, respondents were pushed for an answer since the ballot test result reveals no undecided or won’t respond replies.

Whether such a race materializes must be considered unlikely. Sununu, while Governor, had been asked repeatedly about his interest in forging a Senate race, particularly against Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) in the 2022 election cycle, to which he consistently expressed little desire in becoming a Senator. This, even when he might have become the majority-deciding 51st Republican vote, which at the time, looked to be the number Republicans could realistically obtain.

New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan (D)

Perhaps of more concern to Sen. Hassan than a potential pairing with Sununu, however, is the question relating to her age. Asked: “If re-elected, she would be 85 years old at the end of her term in office. How concerned are you that age would impact Sen. Shaheen’s ability to effectively serve New Hampshire?”

Over 60 percent of the New Hampshire respondents voiced trepidation. A total of 25.8 percent said they would be “extremely concerned,” while an additional 34.6 percent (a combined total of 60.4 percent) replied that they would be “somewhat concerned.” The situation surrounding former President Joe Biden’s last year in office spotlighted the issue of personal ability when reaching an advanced age according to the poll analysis.

The poll news, however, is not all bad for Sen. Shaheen. If paired in 2026 with former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R), whom she defeated in 2020, Sen. Shaheen would lead 55.1 – 44.9 percent. If Commissioner of Education Frank Edelblut were her Republican opponent, Sen. Shaheen would post a 58.9 – 41.1 percent advantage.

Sen. Shaheen has yet to say whether she will seek a fourth US Senate term, she has only said that she will make a decision about running again in the next few months.

Her votes relating to the Trump cabinet member confirmations suggest that the Senator may be leaning toward running, since she was one of the more bipartisan members in terms of supporting the Republican appointees. In fact, she backed nine of the nominees, the most of any Democratic Senator, along with Sens. John Fetterman (D-PA) and Ruben Gallego (D-AZ).

The Shaheen situation concerns the Democratic leadership. Even though the party has the advantage on the overall 2026 Senate election map because the Democrats must defend only 13 seats as compared to the Republicans’ 22, the early developments have not gone their way.

With Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI) and Tina Smith (D-MN) announcing surprise retirement decisions, the Democrats must now add two more competitive open seats to their priority list. Should Sen. Shaheen retire or face former Gov. Sununu, even more resources that could be used to attack Republican-held positions would instead be diverted into increased defensive spending.

With Sens. Peters and Smith already deciding to depart, great attention will be paid to Sen. Shaheen’s upcoming decision. Depending upon how her situation unfolds, it is possible that New Hampshire could become another key 2026 battleground state.