By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 18, 2026
House
Maryland Congresswoman April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac)
The four incumbents defeated so far include Republican Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R‑TX) and Thomas Massie (R‑KY). Two Democrats have also lost, though their defeats are largely attributable to redistricting: Texas Reps. Al Green (D‑Houston) and Julie Johnson (D‑Dallas) were both unseated in newly configured districts.
Next Tuesday, New York Reps. Dan Goldman (D-New York City), Adriano Espaillat (D-Harlem) and Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) face serious intra-party challengers, as does Maryland Congresswoman April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac).
Today, we look at the 6th District of Maryland, where billionaire former Congressman David Trone (D) is attempting a political comeback in the congressional district he held for three terms before losing the 2024 Senate primary. To return, he would have to defeat the woman who replaced him, freshman Rep. Delaney.
Polling offers no clear picture. Several surveys suggest Trone is well‑positioned, while just as many indicate he is headed for a sizable defeat. In an unusual sequence of publicly released polls, the ballot test leader has flipped in eight consecutive surveys. All were conducted by professional live interview firms that the two campaigns commissioned.
Unsurprisingly, each campaign’s polls show its own candidate ahead. The Delaney campaign’s internal surveys consistently find the Congresswoman leading by strong margins. The Trone campaign’s polls, meanwhile, show the former Congressman ahead in all four of their releases, but only by narrow spreads.
The polling firms involved, Hart Research for Delaney and Impact Research plus the Global Strategy Group for Trone, are well‑established, highly experienced, and have conducted surveys for presidential campaigns. Yet their results in this race, while internally consistent, diverge sharply from one another.
The latest pair of polls again shows opposite outcomes. Hart Research (for the Delaney campaign; June 2-4; 500 likely MD‑6 Democratic primary voters; live interview) places Rep. Delaney ahead 52-37 percent, a margin well beyond the survey’s error range and consistent with their March, April, and May findings.
In contrast, the Global Strategy Group (for the Trone campaign; June 8-11; 500 likely MD‑6 Democratic primary voters; live interview) shows Trone holding a slight 43-40 percent edge, also in line with previous Impact Research results.
Whatever happens on Tuesday, at least one of these veteran polling firms will have missed the race multiple times by a large margin.
Trone, the founder of the Total Wine & More beverage chain, again is spending heavily, this time an estimated $25 million of his own money. Rep. Delaney has countered with more than $8 million in campaign expenditures according to the June 3 pre-primary Federal Election Commission financial disclosure filing.
Maryland’s 6th District contains four counties in the state’s western panhandle tucked between Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and about a quarter of Montgomery County. It is the latter entity that tilts the district toward the Democrats.
According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the MD-6 partisan lean is 48.9D – 48.0R, making it the most competitive district in the state. In federal races, however, the district’s electorate clearly favors Democrats. MD-6 voters backed the Democratic nominee over President Trump in both recent presidential elections: Kamala Harris won 51.6 – 45.8 percent in 2024, and President Biden carried the seat 53.9 – 44.1 percent in 2020.
Former Rep. Trone averaged 57.5 percent of the vote in his three victorious elections, while Rep. Delaney scored a 53 percent win in her lone congressional contest.
In any event, it appears evident that one of these two candidates is in for a surprise on Tuesday night.