By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 20, 2025
Senate
Democrats now have a credible US Senate candidate in Florida, and a new Illinois Democratic primary poll finds Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) expanding upon his early lead.
Florida
Josh Weil (D), Florida
Weil attracted national attention for his special election campaign to succeed then-Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL-6), with his national fundraising program that accumulated well over $15 million in campaign receipts. Polling suggested a close finish, and even a possible upset, but as we have seen in many Florida elections, the pollsters often underestimate Republican voter strength.
In the end, Weil even failed to perform as well as a Democratic predecessor the last time the 6th District seat was open. While party nominee Nancy Soderberg garnered 44 percent of the vote against Waltz when he first won in 2018, Weil managed to only record 43 percent in voter support in his special election campaign effort.
According to The Down Ballot political blog prognosticators, the Weil campaign’s actual spending on voter contact media during the April election was only in the $4 million realm because such a large percentage of his receipts went toward fundraising expenses and campaign overhead.
It remains to be seen if Weil can raise the kind of money he did for the special congressional race when his federal campaign was only one of two occurring nationally, and news reports were suggesting an upset was possible. Additionally, Weil ran far to the left in the special election, which in the end didn’t work in the conservative 6th District and he won’t likely fare any better statewide with such a strategy.
Weil’s other major obstacle is the voter registration trends in the state. At the end of May, the latest Sunshine State registration figures give Republicans a 1.31 million voter advantage in partisan affiliation over Democrats.
Considering Florida’s recent electoral history, Sen. Moody is favored in the succeeding election, though it is clear that Weil looks to be the most credible Democrat coming forward to date.
Illinois
Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi’s Senate campaign late this week released the results of its recent internal GBAO Strategies statewide poll (June 5-10; 1,200 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text). The ballot test posts the Congressman to a 32-19-14 percent advantage over Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who has Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Sen. Tammy Duckworth’s (D-IL) endorsements, as well as Rep. Robin Kelly’s (D-Matteson/Chicago).
With Republicans not bringing forth a credible candidate to date, next year’s March 17 Democratic plurality primary will also effectively determine the general election outcome, and the winner will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D).
The new research data reveals Krishnamoorthi momentum. In the GBAO April survey (April 24-28; 800 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) the Congressman topped Lt. Gov. Stratton and Rep. Kelly, but with a 27-18-11 percent margin, some five points under Krishnamoorthi’s current standing, though his opponents have also gained some support during the interval between polls.
The upcoming 2nd Quarter campaign disclosure reports, which will be made public on or around July 15, will give us further clues as to how this campaign is progressing. At the end of the 1st Quarter, Rep. Krishnamoorthi held a huge campaign resource lead with a cash-on-hand figure of $19.4 million in his congressional account, which is fully transferable to a Senate campaign committee. Rep. Kelly reported $2.0 million in her account, which will have to substantially improve if she is to become a strong contender.
Lt. Gov. Stratton was not a federal candidate at the 1st Quarter filing deadline, so the June 30 numbers will provide a glimpse into her support level. Early rumors suggested that she would receive more than just an endorsement from Gov. Pritzker. Many believe he will fund a Super PAC to assist her in the primary, but such has yet to materialize.
With the competitive Texas Republican Senate primary occurring on March 3 and the Illinois Democratic contest two weeks later, it is clear that these two big state Senate primaries will dominate the early part of the 2026 election cycle.