By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 18, 2025
Polling
Two gubernatorial political surveys have just been released. One came from Colorado with predictable results and the other, testing the New Jersey electorate, produced an unexpected tally.
New Jersey
Newly nominated Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli’s campaign publicized its internal post-primary National Research poll (June 10-11; 600 likely New Jersey general election voters; live interview & text) that projected Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), the now official Democratic gubernatorial nominee, leading their general election battle by only a 45-42 percent margin.
The bigger surprise is found in the crosstabs. While both candidates are doing as well as expected within their respective party bases (among Republicans in the polling sample, Ciattarelli is getting 82 percent of their votes and Sherrill five percent — among Democrats, Sherrill is getting 81 percent of their votes and Ciattarelli 10 percent), it is the Republican who holds an unanticipated edge among the non-affiliated voters.
According to the National Research data, Ciattarelli would lead Sherrill within this cell by a 44-36 percent clip. Historically, polling a New Jersey non-affiliated/Independent voter segment would typically reveal a strong lead for the Democratic candidate.
Providing more evidence of what possibly appears as a developing political and demographic realignment, the Democratic nominee has the advantage among the voter cell defined as “Upper Class” (48-35 percent) and the “Upper Middle Class” (50-40 percent), while the Republican nominee breaks even within the “Working/Middle Class” (43-43 percent) cell.
Another troubling point for the Democrats, and likely a reflection of how term-limited incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is viewed, the sampling universe believes New Jersey is on the “wrong track” by a whopping 72-14 percent count.
The National Research poll results, however, are at odds with a different survey conducted before the primary election. Survey USA tested the New Jersey electorate (May 28-30; 576 likely New Jersey general election voters; online internet panel) and found Rep. Sherrill leading Ciattarelli by a substantial 51-38 percent result.
Assuming both studies are accurate within the polling margin of error, a suggested conclusion points to Ciattarelli being the candidate receiving a post-primary support boost. While Rep. Sherril received just under 34 percent of the vote over a field of five other candidates from a larger turnout universe, Ciattarelli exceeded all polling predictions in recording a victory percentage almost touching 68 opposite four Republican primary contenders.
Colorado
The other released poll, from Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet’s gubernatorial campaign, finds the three-plus term federal incumbent posting a large lead over his Democratic primary opponent, state Attorney General Phil Weiser.
The Global Strategy Group conducted the poll for the Bennet campaign (June 9-11; 600 likely Colorado Democratic primary voters; live interview) and projects their client leading AG Weiser 53-22 percent and possessing, also unsurprisingly, a very large name identification advantage.
In terms of personal favorability within the Democratic polling sample, Sen. Bennet recorded a 74:13 positive to negative ratio, while AG Reiser also posted a respectable but much smaller 45:7 index. A total of 87 percent responded that they are totally familiar with Sen. Bennet, while only 52 percent of the sample logged a similar recognition of Weiser.
Michael Bennet was first appointed to the Senate in 2009 to replace then-Sen. Ken Salazar (D) who resigned to become US Interior Secretary in the Obama Administration. The new Senator went on to defeat then-Colorado Republican Party chairman Ken Buck in a close 48-46 percent result in the 2010 general election. Sen. Bennet scored a closer than expected 50-44 percent re-election victory in 2016, and a more substantial 56-41 percent win six years later.
As the Colorado electorate continues to move leftward, the 2026 gubernatorial general election will feature the eventual Democratic nominee as a prohibitive favorite. Therefore, the chances of Sen. Bennet winning both the Democratic gubernatorial primary and general election, at this early point in the 2026 election cycle, appear extremely high.
The prospects also suggest that the most interesting point about the Colorado gubernatorial general election may well be the speculation over who Bennet would appoint to replace himself in the US Senate. Assuming he wins the Governorship, whomever Bennet appoints in 2027 would serve the balance of the current term and be eligible to seek a full six-year term in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle.