Monthly Archives: December 2021

Rep. Peter DeFazio to Retire

By Jim Ellis

Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Springfield)

Dec. 3, 2021 — Saying that he “…need[s] a little more time for myself, for my health and well-being, for my wife, my family, and the things I love in Oregon,” veteran Beaver State Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Springfield), chairman of the House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee, announced Tuesday that he will retire after completing his 18th term next year. He ranks sixth in House seniority.

Rep. DeFazio becomes the 19th Democrat, and third full committee chair, to not seek re-election in this cycle. The other retiring chairs are Reps. John Yarmuth (Budget) and Eddie Bernice Johnson (Science, Space, and Technology).

Through his 18 congressional elections, DeFazio averaged 64.4 percent of the vote, but his victory margins dropped precipitously since 2010. His 2020 performance, scoring just 51.5 percent of the vote, was the lowest of his long career. Since the 2010 election, inclusive, he failed to reach the 60 percent threshold and averaged 55.9 percent in a district that was becoming more Republican as the population grew substantially.

In all but the 2020 election during this 12-year period, Rep. DeFazio faced the same Republican opponent, college professor Art Robinson. Though Robinson ran five consecutive times from 2010 through 2018, he would make a maximum effort in only three of the campaigns.

In the most recent contest, a battle that DeFazio won 51-46 percent against Afghan War veteran and anti-terrorist hero Alex Skarlatos, the Republicans did target the contest. Skarlatos’ campaign committee spent almost $5.2 million, not counting the substantial independent expenditures that came into the district.

The 4th District of Oregon hugs most of the state’s beautiful Pacific Ocean coastline, and encompasses the Eugene-Springfield metro area as its population anchor. At the time of the 2020 election, 595,443 people were registered to vote in this congressional district, the second-highest total in the state. Of that number, 32.6 percent were registered Democrats, and 31.2 percent registered as non-affiliated, while 28.8 percent chose the Republican Party.

Despite the high number of registered voters, the 4th District’s population shed figure was 117,399 individuals, very large for most states, but actually the lowest total among Oregon’s five CDs. Such is the principal reason the state gained a sixth district in reapportionment.

When the new map was drawn, the state legislative leadership had a goal of creating a 5D-1R map. In order to achieve this ratio, at least one of the Democratic seats would be weak from a partisan perspective.

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OKLAHOMA REDISTRICTING UPDATE

Oklahoma Congressional redistricting map

The Sooner State was both a long way from gaining and losing a seat under the 2020 census, so the state remains constant with five congressional districts. Three of these districts will now come into Oklahoma County, the entity housing the state’s largest metropolis, Oklahoma City.

The big change, aside from feeding the 2nd District (Rep. Markwayne Mullin-R) with 69,793 additional residents needed to bring this seat into population balance, comes in the capital city area. Bringing Rep. Frank Lucas’ (R-Cheyenne) rural western state 3rd District into Oklahoma County and adding more rural territory into freshman Rep. Stephanie Bice’s (R-Oklahoma City) district creates a much safer 5th CD for her and yields a stronger 5R-0D delegation for the GOP.

NORTH CAROLINA REDISTRICTING UPDATE

(Please click on map for expanded view.)

Rep. G.K. Butterfield’s (D-Wilson) retirement announcement throws the state’s new 2nd District into the slightly competitive range. President Biden would have carried this seat only with a 51-48% margin, thus meaning it could become competitive in a strong Republican year with a viable GOP candidate. Such could be the situation in 2022.

With the 2nd District potentially in play, even the state’s projected 10R-4D delegation split could possibly tilt even more toward the Republicans. That could be balanced, however, because the new 14th District in western North Carolina is more attainable for the Democrats. Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-Hendersonville) deciding to run in District 13 means the more politically marginal 14th will move into the open seat category for 2022.

MONTANA REDISTRICTING UPDATE

Missoula Current news site

The Montana Districting and Apportionment Commission passed a congressional map that will likely send two Republicans to Washington, though the new western 1st District is potentially competitive. The map passed because one of the Democratic commissioners voted for the Republican plan.

Montana is the first state in history to be reduced to at-large status – this happened in the 1990 census – only to regain their lost seat. The state was awarded a second district in the current national reapportionment.

INDIANA REDISTRICTING UPDATE

FiveThirtyEight.com

Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) signed the new congressional redistricting legislation in early October, becoming one of the first states to complete the decennial re-drawing process.

The main change in the nine-district map was to make freshman Rep. Victoria Spartz’s (R-Noblesville) seat more Republican by sending the previous 5th District’s Marion County precincts to other congressional districts. The Spartz seat was the most over-populated district in the state, having to release 50,921 individuals to other districts. Therefore, this district became the focal point of the new map.

The Indiana legislature drew a map that should return a 7R-2D delegation to Washington for most, if not all, of the current decade.

IDAHO REDISTRICTING UPDATE

Idaho Press.com

The Gem State map was enacted with little change to the state’s two-district map. A total of 35,338 people were switched from Rep. Russ Fulcher’s (R-Meridian) 1st District to Rep. Mike Simpson’s (R-Idaho Falls) 2nd District. With a per district state population quota of a huge 919,553 residents, the nation’s second-fastest growing state during the past decade is in strong position to gain a third district in the 2030 reapportionment.

For the current decade, expect Idaho to retain a 2R-0D congressional delegation.

The Open and Collapsed Seats

By Jim Ellis

A look at how things might play out in key states in the redistricting tug of wars

Dec. 2, 2021 — In a redistricting year, tracking the open seats can be a bit confusing. Not only do we record retiring members and those seeking other offices, as we do in every election cycle, but in a redistricting year we also see new seats awarded to states in reapportionment, new districts created through map drawing, and collapsed seats. This, in addition to members being paired and certain incumbents choosing to run in districts other than the one they currently represent.

The open seat numbers have grown significantly during the past month. As a result, we see 24 members leaving their current districts either for retirement or to run for another office. Sixteen are from the majority Democratic conference, with eight coming from their Republican counterparts.

One seat, FL-20, remains in special election cycle and will be filled on Jan. 11. At that point, the House will have its full compliment of 435 members for the first time in this Congress.

Reapportionment changed locations within states for seven congressional seats, and map drawing has added an additional four new seats to date for a total of 11 nationally. The new seats also lead to a commensurate number of incumbent pairings or collapsed districts.

Adding the numbers from all of these categories tells us that 43 House seats have been affected in addition to four members who have declared for seats they don’t currently represent.

The collapsed seats tell their own story. In this category, certain members have nowhere to run, typically in states that lost a seat in reapportionment. In many instances, the member without a place to run is one who had previously indicated that he or she is leaving the House.

In California, the first draft redistricting map shows that Rep. Karen Bass’ (D-Los Angeles) seat would be the one collapsed, because the state is, for the first time in history, losing a district. Bass, however, previously announced that she is running for mayor of Los Angeles, so seeing her seat as the one forfeited was not a surprise.

Illinois Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Channahon) was geographically in a difficult position because the map drawers needed the leftward voters in his district to enhance two adjoining Democratic seats. Therefore, he became the odd man out.

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UTAH REDISTRICTING UPDATE

Utah 2021 Congressional redistricting map

Gov. Spencer Cox (R) signed the congressional and state legislative maps. The congressional map will lock in the Republicans’ 4R-0D advantage. The legislature adopted a pie-shaped option, meaning that all four of the state’s CDs receive a portion of the state’ largest metro area, Salt Lake County.

The biggest change occurs in the state’s 4th District, where Rep. Burgess Owens’ (R-Salt Lake City) district goes from being the most politically marginal seat to the safest Republican domain in the state. The 4th was also Utah’s most over-populated seat, having to disperse 65,265 residents to other districts. This allowed the map drawers more latitude in making the seat more Republican for the freshman incumbent.

NEVADA REDISTRICTING UPDATE

Nevada 2021 redistricting map

Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) signed the Democratic legislators’ map into law, which is designed to keep the state’s 3D-1R delegation intact.

The 2020 election yielded very close re-election results for Reps. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) and Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas). Therefore, this map strengthen those two districts in Clark County, but at the expense of Rep. Dina Titus’ (D-Las Vegas) downtown 1st District. The strongest Democratic district, Rep. Horsford’s 4th CD, is only rated as a D+5 on partisan indexes.

Despite Nevada’s large population gain, Rep. Titus’ district needed to gain 73,332 residents, meaning her district had to undergo relative significant change.

All three Democratic seats are now in the low to mid-50s realm, meaning in strong Republican years, these districts could become competitive.

GEORGIA REDISTRICTING UPDATE

Georgia did not gain a seat in reapportionment despite significant growth in the Atlanta area. In the state’s major metroplex, the congressional districts fully contained within or touching the area counties gained almost 200,000 people dispersed within six districts. The rural CDs, particularly in the southern part of Georgia, however, all needed to gain individuals in order to meet the state population quota of 765,136 individuals per congressional district.

Rep. Sanford Bishop’s (D-Albany) 2nd District becomes somewhat more Republican, but this seat was the most under-populated congressional domain in the state, requiring an additional 92,108 residents to meet the state quota. Therefore, a significant change was necessary.

The big changes come in the Atlanta area, and this is where the Republican map drawers are making a move to take back one of their two lost seats. It appears the 6th District of two-term Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) will again become strongly Republican, with a major population shift also going into Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux’s 7th CD that will concede the district to her and the Democrats.

By changing the 6th District — because Rep. McBath is African American, and the move will undoubtedly trigger a civil rights lawsuit — eyebrows were raised. Under previous redistricting rulings, however, a district is not judged by the incumbent, but rather whether the controlling minority community elects its candidate of choice.

It is likely that the Georgia map changes with Republicans flipping the 6th District back into their column. The remaining Georgia incumbents will all receive winnable seats, so most of the state’s congressional political action will be centered upon the 6th District.

Under this new plan, the Georgia delegation is projected to become 9R-5D, but expect a major legal challenge.