Monthly Archives: April 2013

New McConnell Polling

Public Policy Polling (April 5-7; 1,052 registered Kentucky voters) tested Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) as he prepares for re-election. The poll was taken after actress Ashley Judd (D) stated that she would not challenge the senator in 2014.

As has been detected in other polls, McConnell’s job approval is poor. According to this study, only 36 percent of the sampling universe approves of his performance as the state’s senior senator, versus 54 percent, who do not. By contrast, fellow Kentucky Republican Sen. Rand Paul’s approval index is 46:39 percent. When asked whether the respondents hold a higher opinion of Sen. Paul or McConnell, by a 42-24 percent split the group responded Paul.

Right now, the Democrats do not have a viable candidate to challenge the Republican leader. If first-term Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes were to run — an alternative that she has not ruled but is not likely to pursue — McConnell would lead her 45-41 percent. If defeated representative Ben Chandler (D-KY-6), for example, were to become the Democratic nominee, the senator would lead him by a similar 46-41 percent margin. Chandler also gives no indication that he will enter the race.

Though McConnell is unpopular, he still fares reasonably well in ballot tests against the most viable potential Democratic opponents. Unless a top-tier challenger comes forward, McConnell must still be rated as a clear favorite for re-election.

Kelly Breezes to a Win in Illinois

Robin Kelly

Robin Kelly

Former Cook County CEO Robin Kelly (D) will officially replace resigned Illinios Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D), as she easily outdistanced Republican Paul McKinley last night in her heavily Democratic, Chicago-anchored, congressional district. Kelly received 73 percent of the vote in a special general election that was a mere formality. She unofficially won the seat back in late February when topping a field of 16 Democratic candidates, including former US Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D-IL-11) and Chicago Alderman Anthony Beale.

McKinley, who won the Republican nomination on the same day that Kelly triumphed in the Democratic primary, was not a serious candidate. A convicted felon who served approximately 20 years in prison for a series of armed robberies and burglaries was never viewed as a candidate with any upset potential. McKinley spent just over $7,500 for the entire campaign. Kelly dropped more than $600,000 on her effort. Turnout was in the 85,000-vote range, which is rather high considering the lack of competition in the campaign.

The congresswoman-elect will be sworn into office later this week. She will stand for re-election in the regular election cycle.

Two other House vacancies still exist. South Carolina’s Charleston-anchored 1st District will be filled on May 7. Former governor  Continue reading >

Schwartz is in; Is King Committed?

Pennsylvania

As expected, Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D-PA-13) yesterday announced that she will challenge Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett (R), but the opposite situation may be happening in Iowa. Rep. Steve King (R-IA-4), who is also expected to run statewide, made some surprising statements suggesting that he is not committed to a run for his state’s open US Senate seat.

Rep. Schwartz has been viewed as a probable statewide candidate since before last November’s election. It was originally believed that she would match up with Sen. Pat Toomey (R) in 2016, but when rumors surfaced pairing her with Gov. Corbett she did not dissuade the talk. With her formal announcement yesterday, Schwartz is now an official gubernatorial candidate and her safe Democratic congressional seat will yield a highly competitive party primary early next year.

Gov. Corbett’s favorability ratings have been poor during the past several months, and that provides a clear indication of vulnerability for next year. But, Schwartz is unlikely to have a clear path to the Democratic nomination. Already in the race is state Department of Revenue director Tom Wolf. Poised to enter is state Treasurer Rob McCord. Former Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA-7), who held Sen. Toomey to a 51-49 percent victory margin in 2010, is said to be a potential gubernatorial candidate.

Iowa

Like Schwartz, King has been viewed as the presumptive Republican nominee to vie for retiring Sen. Tom Harkin’s (D) seat ever since fellow GOP Rep. Tom Latham (R-IA-3) announced that he would not run statewide. Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA-1) is already an announced senatorial candidate. Statements King made this weekend, however, suggest he may be leaning against such a run.
 Continue reading >

Brown Considering NH Senate Bid

Scott Brown (R-MA)

Scott Brown (R-MA)

A surprising news story broke late last week that indicated former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown (R) is contemplating a political comeback strategy before a different electorate — this time in neighboring New Hampshire.

Despite brandishing some of the stronger approval ratings of any senator standing for re-election in 2012, Brown lost his seat to Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) by a substantial seven percentage point margin. When Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) was appointed Secretary of State earlier this year, political observers and activists from both parties were closing watching whether Brown would run in the upcoming April/June 2013 replacement special Senate election. Since he won the seat in 2010 via special election after veteran Sen. Edward Kennedy (D) passed away, it was natural to question whether or not Brown would try again, particularly after he made post-defeat comments that refused to close the door about seeking public office in the future.

The fact that Brown ultimately decided not to run led to common speculation that he would seek what will be an open governor’s office in 2014. Though Republicans have a poor record of winning federal office in Massachusetts, the party has won four of the last six gubernatorial campaigns. But, apparently such a race is not in Brown’s present political calculations.
 Continue reading >

Is the Math in Colbert Busch’s Favor?

Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D) is now officially opposing ex-governor Mark Sanford (R) in a South Carolina congressional district that should vote for a Republican in every election. But, as we all know, the special vote to replace Senator Tim Scott (R) is very different, and it is clear, because of Sanford’s unpopularity after his highly publicized extra-marital affair became international news, that Busch does have a chance to win.

Like everything in politics, it all comes down to mathematics. On paper, Sanford has the easier victory path. Mitt Romney scoring 58.3 percent of the vote as compared to President Obama’s 40.2 percent, provides a clear gauge about this electorate’s strong Republican penchant. So far, at least 26,066 people have already voted for Sanford versus 15,802 who have cast a ballot for Busch. The most important general election voters, however, could be the group of 20,005 Republicans who have already voted twice in this three-tiered election, but have yet to support Sanford.

The big question, of which the answer probably determines the final outcome, is just how many of those 20,000 anti-Sanford Republican voters will actually vote for Elizabeth Colbert Busch? While true this group does not particularly like Sanford, they are also Republican primary and run-off voters, thus illustrating at least somewhat of a commitment to the GOP. Will they eschew their party loyalty in this special general election in order to avoid supporting Sanford? Or, will they simply stay home and not participate? The answers to these questions are race-defining.

Since 2000, the highest turnout for a regular South Carolina primary election has been 26 percent of the registered voters. Since this special election will attract a great deal of attention, it may be reasonable to assume that the turnout could reach, or even surpass, this figure. On the other hand, keeping in mind that the primary turnout was a combined 16.2 percent, while 10.6 percent of the registered voters returned for the Republican run-off, it is hard to imagine  Continue reading >

Sanford Continues South Carolina Comeback

Mark Sanford (R)

Mark Sanford (R)

When scandal-ridden former South Carolina governor Mark Sanford (R) first announced he was attempting a political comeback by running in the current special congressional election cycle, many voters and political observers scoffed at his chances of victory. Last night, Sanford overcame the critics and quite possibly the odds as he won his Republican nomination with a rather impressive 57-43 percent victory over former Charleston County Councilman Curtis Bostic.

This sets up what promises to be a competitive special general election campaign with Democratic nominee Elizabeth Colbert Busch, the sister of Comedy Central comedian Stephen Colbert, even though South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District should be safely Republican.

As is typical for Palmetto State run-off elections, 85.6 percent of the number of primary voters returned to cast ballots for the secondary vote. The state, which features only two-week run-off cycles, performs better in turnout terms than others having a two-tiered nomination system. In most of those places, it is common to see participation levels drop by 50 percent or more. In yesterday’s GOP run-off, 46,071 individuals voted as compared to the 53,793 who cast ballots in the special primary election.
 Continue reading >