Monthly Archives: April 2013

Pew Study Shows Federal Government at All-Time Low

The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press just released the results of their new regular study (from surveys conducted on March 13-17, 1,501 adults; and March 28-31, 1,001 adults) that questioned respondents on their views and impressions about the federal, state, and local governments. The favorability response hit a new low for the federal government, but the sentiment did not carry over to state and local public sector bureaucracies.

According to the data, only 28 percent of the respondents now have a favorable opinion about the federal government. In contrast, 57 percent have a positive impression of state government and an even higher 63 percent maintain an affirmative opinion about local government.

State and Local Attitudes

There are partisan divisions within the data, but they are almost solely reserved for the federal government. For the first time since Barack Obama became president more Democrats view the national authority in negative terms: 41 percent positive compared to 51 percent negative. Republicans continue to be almost unanimous in their unfavorable opinion about the US public sector. Only 13 percent of GOP respondents, according to the current Pew data, view the federal government approvingly.

But, these partisan splits are not evident when examining attitudes toward the states or localities. In fact, Republicans have a slightly better view of state government than do Democrats (57 percent versus 56 percent). Independents hold the best opinion, recording a 59 percent positive rating. Regarding local government, the respondents’ sentiments are even more positive. Here, it is the Democrats who rate the locals the highest (67 percent), followed by Republicans (63 percent), and Independents (60 percent positive).
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A Tale of Two Governor’s Races

Rep. Charles. A. "Dutch" Ruppersberger (D) | Gov. Chris Christie (R)

Rep. Charles. A. “Dutch” Ruppersberger (D)                       Gov. Chris Christie (R)                    

Maryland

Late last week, Rep. Charles. A. “Dutch” Ruppersberger (D-MD-2) confirmed that he is considering a race for governor next year. Incumbent Martin O’Malley (D) is term-limited, and the open race already is attracting a great deal of attention, particularly from Democrats. Virtually all of the strong candidates hail from the Washington, DC suburbs, while Ruppersberger would, at this point, be the only contender from the Baltimore metropolitan area. The geographic split would give him a clear advantage if the DC-area vote becomes split.

Ruppersberger won election to his sixth US House term last November. He represents the largest portion of Baltimore County of any Maryland congressman, in addition to having more than 83,000 residents from Baltimore city. His district also covers significant portions of Anne Arundel and Hartford Counties, with a sliver of Howard County.

The congressman defeated state Sen. Nancy Jacobs (R) 65.6-31.1 percent in November, but the Republican spent less than $300,000 on her challenge.

Other Democratic likely candidates are Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, who already has scheduled his formal announcement for early May, Attorney General Doug Gansler, state Del. Heather Mizeur and Howard County Executive Ken Ulman. The Democratic primary will almost assuredly  Continue reading >

Baca May Challenge Gary Miller in California

Former representative Joe Baca (D-CA-43), who lost his 2012 re-election campaign to fellow Democrat Gloria Negrete McLeod in the post-redistricting 35th CD (California’s new election law now allows two members of the same party to qualify for the general election under certain circumstances), said last month that he would seek a re-match. Now, he may change targets. Instead of again battling Rep. McLeod, Baca might launch a challenge to Rep. Gary Miller (R-CA-31) in the adjoining district.

Under the 2011 redistricting map, California’s 31st Congressional District, fully contained within San Bernardino County, already possesses the most interesting voting history of any new Golden State seat. Despite it being heavily Democratic (Obama ’12: 57.2 percent, making it the most Democratic seat represented by a Republican in Congress), CA-31 qualified two Republicans for the general election. Rep. Gary Miller, coming into the seat from his redistricting-collapsed 42nd District, won a 55-45 percent victory over Republican state Sen. Bob Dutton last November. Miller’s performance in the 2012 election is rather extraordinary considering he literally represented no one in this new district during his previous service.

Originally, the 31st paired Baca with then-Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-CA-41), in what was viewed as a “lean Democratic” seat. With Hispanics constituting 49.3 percent of the population base, the seat appeared to be designed for a Democrat, but its previous voting history suggested a Republican could win. In addition to representatives Baca and Lewis, former Rep. David Dreier (R-CA-26) also represented a significant portion of the new 31st and it, for a time, was considered a potential landing district for him, too.

Baca’s decision to run in the new 35th CD, a district where just under 61 percent of the constituency hails from his old 43rd District, was a surprise. Despite him representing a large chunk of the new district, it was clear he would have to oppose  Continue reading >

Governorships in the Balance

Gov. Rick Scott (R)

Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R)

In the current 2013-14 election cycle, 38 of the 50 gubernatorial campaigns will occur. Though the Republican Party did poorly in the 2012 national election, they still claim their largest stable of governors in modern political history. Today, the Republicans control 30 state houses as compared to 19 for the Democrats. One state, Rhode Island, features an Independent governor. Lincoln Chafee was originally elected to the Senate as a Republican but, after his defeat from federal office, he chose to run for governor in 2010 as an Independent. Earlier in the year speculation grew that Chafee might seek re-election as a Democrat, bringing him full circle through the political party process if he follows through.

One state, Virginia, is among five states that elect chief executives in odd-numbered years. The Commonwealth also invokes a one-term limit, meaning an open race for the position every four years. Two states, Vermont and New Hampshire, maintain two-year terms for their respective governors. The other 48 states award four-year terms.

In looking at the 38 races, Republicans must defend 24 of the gubernatorial seats to the Democrats 13, in addition to the one Independent. Only six of the seats are open, five due to term limits. Massachusetts Gov.  Continue reading >

New McConnell Polling

Public Policy Polling (April 5-7; 1,052 registered Kentucky voters) tested Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) as he prepares for re-election. The poll was taken after actress Ashley Judd (D) stated that she would not challenge the senator in 2014.

As has been detected in other polls, McConnell’s job approval is poor. According to this study, only 36 percent of the sampling universe approves of his performance as the state’s senior senator, versus 54 percent, who do not. By contrast, fellow Kentucky Republican Sen. Rand Paul’s approval index is 46:39 percent. When asked whether the respondents hold a higher opinion of Sen. Paul or McConnell, by a 42-24 percent split the group responded Paul.

Right now, the Democrats do not have a viable candidate to challenge the Republican leader. If first-term Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes were to run — an alternative that she has not ruled but is not likely to pursue — McConnell would lead her 45-41 percent. If defeated representative Ben Chandler (D-KY-6), for example, were to become the Democratic nominee, the senator would lead him by a similar 46-41 percent margin. Chandler also gives no indication that he will enter the race.

Though McConnell is unpopular, he still fares reasonably well in ballot tests against the most viable potential Democratic opponents. Unless a top-tier challenger comes forward, McConnell must still be rated as a clear favorite for re-election.