Tag Archives: Virginia

House Re-Match Recap – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 28, 2025

House

We have been witnessing recent 2026 campaign action in some of the closest 2024 US House races. Several re-matches are on the political horizon.

Yesterday, we published Part I; today, we continue our update of potential re-match House campaigns in states stretching from Maine to Wisconsin.

ME-2:

ME-2: Rep. Jared Golden (D) over St. Rep. Austin Theriault (R)
50.3 – 49.6%; Vote Difference: 2,706

The main impediment to seeing a re-match of this tight 2024 campaign is whether Rep. Golden will run again. Persistent rumors are present that he will enter the open race for Governor since incumbent Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Should the Congressman eschew the Governor’s race and seek re-election to a fifth term, he is virtually assured of again facing Theriault, a former NASCAR driver, who is almost a sure bet to run again in 2026.

MI-7:

Ex-Sen. Tom Barrett (R) defeated ex-Sen. Curtis Hertel (D)
50.3 – 46.6%; Vote Difference: 16,763

After losing the 2022 congressional race to then-incumbent Elissa Slotkin (D), Republican Barrett returned two years later for an open-seat race and defeated former state Senator and gubernatorial chief of staff Hertel. There is no indication that Hertel will run again, and eyes are pointing to state Sen. Sarah Anthony (D-Lansing) as a potential opponent for Rep. Barrett.

MI-10:

Rep. John James (R) defeated ex-Judge Carl Marlinga (D)
51.1 – 45.0%; Vote Difference: 26,074

Though challenger Marlinga is saying he plans to run again, he may not face Rep. James. It is becoming clearer that the Congressman will enter the open Governor’s race where he enjoys huge polling leads for the Republican nomination and a potentially favorable three-way setup in the general election that features Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an Independent.

Marlinga will be challenged in the Democratic primary, regardless of the circumstances since the party leadership views him as an under-performing candidate. Without Rep. James in the field, the 10th District becomes a major national Democratic conversion opportunity.

NE-2:

Rep. Don Bacon (R) outpaced state Sen. Tony Vargas (D)
50.9 – 49.1%; Vote Difference: 5,829

State Sen. Vargas challenged Rep. Bacon for the second time and again fell short in a district that both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris carried in the presidential race. It is likely that Vargas will not be back for a third run against Congressman Bacon. The Democratic leadership is expressing a desire for a different nominee in a continued desire to unseat the five-term Representative who specializes in winning close elections.

NC-1:

Rep. Don Davis (D) overcame retired Col. Laurie Buckhout (R)
49.5 – 47.8%; Vote Difference: 6,307

The 2024 North Carolina redistricting plan made the 1st District much more competitive, thus explaining Rep. Davis’ close re-election result. First-time candidate Buckhout performed well and is said to be considering making another attempt in 2026. The district is obviously more competitive, but it is also possible that the close ’24 finish is the best the Republicans can expect.

OH-9:

Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) nipped state Rep. Derek Merrin (R)
49.5 – 47.8%; Vote Difference: 2,382

Rep. Kaptur, who is the second-most senior current House Democratic member with now 22 terms in office, had one of her closest calls in 2024. This is largely due to the 2021 Ohio redistricting plan that made the Toledo-anchored seat a largely Republican domain (FiveThirtyEight rating: R+6).

State Rep. Merrin made the race close and may return for another attempt. If he doesn’t run, count on Republicans to again heavily target this seat with a strong challenger because GOP conversion opportunities around the country will not be overly plentiful.

OH-13:

Rep. Emilia Sykes (D) defeated ex-Sen. Kevin Coughlin (R)
51.1 – 48.9%; Vote Difference: 8,542

The Akron-anchored 13th District is another politically marginal seat that leans Democratic. Rep. Sykes, re-elected for the first time, has won two close elections and can expect to face another tough race in 2026.

Kevin Coughlin, out of campaign politics since last elected to the legislature in 2006, returned to run a strong race. It is possible he returns for a re-match. If not, Republicans are again expected to heavily target the district with a new candidate.

PA-7:

State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) unseated Rep. Susan Wild (D)
50.5 – 49.5%; Vote Difference: 4,062

The Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton district is another seat designed as politically marginal, and it has lived up to its billing. After winning two close re-election battles against the same Republican opponent, Rep. Wild fell short against Mackenzie.

Though she has discussed a comeback attempt, that is now less likely with the Northampton County Executive, Lamont McClure (D), entering the ’26 congressional race. We can expect another very tight election coming next year, but the candidates will be different than seen in the immediate past.

PA-8:

Rob Bresnahan (R) unseated Rep. Matt Cartwright (D)
50.8 – 49.2%; Vote Difference: 6,272

Though 2021 redistricting made the 8th District decidedly Republican, veteran Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) was able to hold a conservative district despite a liberal voting record. His congressional tenure ended in November, however, when businessman Bresnahan unseated him.

Cartwright has discussed mounting a comeback, but his intentions have not yet been definitive. Realistically, having the former Congressman back as the party nominee is probably the only way the Democrats would have a chance of regaining the seat. Otherwise, Rep. Bresnahan would be favored for re-election in a district the FiveThirtyEight data group rates as R+8.

Before the election, the Down Ballot political blog statisticians rated PA-8 as the fourth-most vulnerable seat that any Democrat held.

PA-10:

Rep. Scott Perry (R) defeated Janelle Stelson (D)
50.6 – 49.4%; Vote Difference: 5,133

Veteran Rep. Perry was not a beneficiary of the 2021 redistricting plan as the addition of the Harrisburg area to the 10th District made his seat more competitive. Though the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+9, it has played much closer in recent down ballot elections.

Rep. Perry has now won three consecutive close elections, but former news anchor Stelson proved to be his toughest opponent. At this point, there has been no mention of Stelson returning to run in 2026.

VA-2:

Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) topped Missy Cotter Smasal (D)
50.7 – 46.9%; Vote Difference: 15,702

Virginia’s 2nd District is another one that has bounced between the parties, but GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans, a retired Naval officer, is proving a good fit for the constituency. After unseating then-Rep. Elaine Luria (D) in 2022, Rep. Kiggans won re-election defeating businesswoman and former state Senate candidate Smasal.

Though the Congresswoman never appeared in danger of losing, the closeness of the race reveals that District 2 has a loyal Democratic partisan base. No talk yet of a re-match here, and it is likely the Democratic leadership would prefer a candidate with a stronger resume than that of Smasal.

VA-7:

Col. Eugene Vindman (D) edged Derrick Anderson (R)
50.7 – 46.9%; Vote Difference: 10,489

The northern Virginia 7th District was drawn as a lean Democratic district, and it has performed as planned. The seat was open because then-Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) retired from Congress in order to concentrate on a 2025 run for Governor. This opened the door for retired Army Col. Eugene Vindman, known as a staunch opponent of President Donald Trump, vis-à-vis the Russia-Ukraine War, to run for Congress.

Vindman became one of the nation’s top congressional fundraisers and used his strong 6:1 spending advantage over Republican Anderson to secure his tight victory. Talk of a re-match has not surfaced, and it is doubtful that Anderson will return to run again. It is likely that this seat will trend more Democratic as the northern Virginia demographic and voting pattern continues to solidify.

WI-3:

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R) defeated Rebecca Cooke (D)
51.3 – 48.6%; Vote Difference: 11,258

Despite some negative publicity relating to certain controversial comments and actions of Rep. Van Orden, the party faithful closed ranks behind him and delivered a close re-election victory.

The southwestern 3rd District’s electorate appears more Republican on paper (FiveThirtyEight: R+9) largely because of its performance in presidential elections, but votes in down ballot races often produce Democratic results. This is illustrated through Van Orden’s predecessor, Rep. Ron Kind (D), who represented the seat for 26 years before retiring in 2022.

Cooke is one of the past Democratic candidates discussing making another run, as is the 2022 Democratic nominee and sitting state Sen. Brad Pfaff (D-La Crosse). It is possible that Rep. Van Orden will see one of his previous opponents again in 2026, but at this point it is hard to see whether Sen. Pfaff, Cooke, or another individual emerges from the Democratic fold.

Harris Cancels Ad Buy; Lake Closes Gap in Arizona; Lawler Hanging On in NY-17; Cartwright Leading in PA-8

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Ad Transfer: Musk Reports Harris Canceling North Carolina Ads — Elon Musk broke the story on X that Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign is canceling a $1.7 million ad buy in North Carolina. There is a belief that the money will be used for a new ad purchase in Virginia. A recent poll from Quantas Insights (Oct. 22-25; 725 likely Virginia voters) found Harris leading former President Donald Trump by only one percentage point in the Old Dominion. Other polls conducted of the Virginia electorate in the similar time frame, from the Washington Post/George Mason University and Christopher Newport University, see Harris holding much larger leads at six and 11 points, respectively.

The Harris ad move makes sense if the campaign strategists believe there is some weakness in Virginia, and possibly New Hampshire, because Harris winning North Carolina would be a luxury but not a necessity. Winning there would mean an early clinch, but Virginia and New Hampshire are must-wins in order to maintain Harris’s overall winning coalition of states.

Senate

Arizona: Lake Closing the Gap — After a summer of substantially trailing Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) in the open Arizona US Senate race, a trio of polls finds former Phoenix news anchor Kari Lake (R) narrowing the gap between the two contenders.

The three surveys, from The Trafalgar Group, Data Orbital, and AtlasIntel, all taken during the Oct. 24-29 period with sampling universes ranging between 550 and 1,458, see ballot test scores with Lake closing to within four points (Trafalgar) and one point (AtlasIntel), with her actually leading by a point (Data Orbital) in the final survey.

The fact that we see three pollsters coming within the polling margin of error, and one that pushes Lake ahead for the first time since the two candidates were even in a National Republican Congressional Committee at the end of July, suggests that this race should draw more attention in the closing week.

House

NY-17: Rep. Lawler Hanging On — Freshman New York Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River), one of the most endangered House incumbents for this election cycle, received good news from a new Emerson College poll (for the Hill Newspaper; Oct. 24-26; 475 likely NY-17 voters; multiple sampling techniques). The ballot test found Rep. Lawler leading former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D) by five percentage points, 49-44 percent.

Rep. Lawler unseated then-Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Sean Patrick Maloney in 2022 from a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated as D+7. The Down Ballot political blog ranks the seat as the sixth most vulnerable district in the House Republican Conference.

PA-8: Rep. Cartwright Leading Again — Six-term Pennsylvania US Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) has held what was transformed into a Republican seat since former President Trump carried a different version of the district back in 2016. A new Noble Predictive Insights survey (Oct. 23-25; 406 likely PA-8 voters; live interview and text) again finds Democratic Rep. Cartwright leading, this time against GOP businessman Rob Bresnahan, 50-43 percent.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 8th District as R+8. The Down Ballot political blog ranks the seat as the fourth most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. At this point in early voting, more Democrats have cast ballots, which is typical for Pennsylvania. Republicans, however, are up seven points from their 2020 performance in this district and 10 points when compared to 2022. Conversely, Democrats are off almost seven points from 2020 and 11 points from 2022.

Rep. Cartwright has won his last two elections with 52 and 51 percent in 2020 and 2022. The 2024 election will likely end closer than the Noble poll suggests, but Rep. Cartwright still must be considered the favorite to win another term.

Harris Leads Trump by Just One in Virginia; Sen. Hawley Expands Lead in Missouri; Brown Even in Nevada; Sykes Battles in OH-13

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Virginia Shock Poll: Harris Up by Only One — A new Quantum Insights poll for the Trending Politics news blog released a very surprising poll result, one that found Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by just one percentage point, 49-48 percent, in the routinely blue Commonwealth of Virginia.

The survey (Oct. 22-24; 725 likely Virginia voters; online) found black voters breaking for Harris with a 77 percent support level, which is under what we typically see for this population segment, while Trump receiving 21 percent is higher than average for a Republican candidate. White voters are moving toward Trump with a 57 percent support factor, and Hispanics divide 55-41 percent in favor of Harris. Isolating the latter group, 41 percent is also an above average support factor for a Republican candidate, but the sample size reflected only half the size of the actual Virginia Hispanic population base.

The Washington Post/George Mason University survey, however, taken within the same time frame (Oct. 19-23; 1,004 likely Virginia voters; multiple sampling techniques), sees Harris holding a 49-43 percent advantage, which is closer to Virginia voting history.

Senate

Missouri: Sen. Hawley Expands Lead — In September, a survey was publicized showing Sen. Josh Hawley (R) topping military veteran and attorney Lucas Kunce (D) by just five percentage points. Money started to come into the Kunce campaign to close the financial deficit and, as a result, the race began attracting some national attention.

The new Emerson College study (for The Hill newspaper; Oct. 22-23; 620 likely Missouri voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Sen. Hawley rebounding to a full 10-point advantage, 51-41 percent. This suggests a return to a more typical Missouri voting pattern. It is expected that Sen. Hawley will likely continue gaining momentum and win in the mid to high 50s.

Nevada: Brown Pulls Even — Since June began, 26 polls have been conducted of the Nevada Senate race and incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) has led in all with an average eight percentage point edge. A new OnMessage survey, however, tells a different story. This poll (Oct. 19-22; 600 likely Nevada voters; text to web; part of a three state study) sees Republican challenger Sam Brown pulling into a tie with Sen. Rosen at 48-48 percent.

While the contest has been getting closer with Brown typically shaving half from Sen. Rosen’s previous healthy lead, no other ballot test result has shown the race tied. Therefore, the OnMessage poll could be an outlier, or is possibly detecting the onset of a Republican surge. So far, and for the first time since 2020 early voting, more Republicans have cast their ballots than Democrats. As a point of reference, the presidential ballot test also showed Trump leading, 50-46 percent.

House

OH-13: One Point Poll Released — The Akron-anchored northern Ohio 13th Congressional District was created as an open seat on the 2021 redistricting bill. In ‘22, then-state Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) defeated Republican Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (R) by a 53-47 percent count in what was a better Democratic performance then initially predicted. This year, former state legislator Kevin Coughlin is the GOP candidate, and a new survey suggests he has moved into ballot test parity with Rep. Sykes even though he is being outspent by better than a 3:1 ratio, including the outside money that has entered for both sides.

The late October co/efficient poll (Oct. 22-24; 707 likely OH-13 voters; live interview & text) gives Coughlin a one-point edge over Rep. Sykes, 46-45 percent. Likewise, former President Trump leads VP Kamala Harris by a single point. In the Senate race, from the district that Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) would represent today if he were a US representative, he leads Republican Bernie Moreno by only three points, 49-46 percent. This is one more House race that will draw attention on election night.

VA-2 Up for Grabs; Bishop Rebounds in GA-2; One-Point Race in ME-2; & A One-Point Lead for Baldwin in Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 28, 2024

House

Freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach)

VA-2: Rep. Kiggans Dropping to Toss-Up Status — A Christopher Newport University survey (Oct. 11-20; 800 likely VA-2 voters; live interview) sees freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) leading Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal by only a single percentage point, 46-45 percent, in a district that former President Donald Trump lost by two percentage points in 2020 and trails by two in this survey.

This is another tight congressional race that will go a long way toward determining the House majority. If the Democrats unseat Rep. Kiggans, it is highly likely that they will wrest the majority away from the Republicans. VA-2 becomes a must-win for the Republicans, so expect to see some further independent expenditure money coming into the district during the final week of campaigning.

According to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart early vote tracking operation, the modeled party calculation shows the Democratic participation rate up two points, the Republicans so far down two points, and the Independents off 1.5 percent from the 2020 totals. Yet, the rural vote is up five points, the suburban participation also up five, and the urban sector down just under nine points. All of this means, at least at this point in the projection process, that we will see a close finish.

GA-2: Rep. Bishop Rebounds — After the co/efficient polling firm last week produced a ballot test finding veteran Georgia Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Albany) leading his underfunded Republican opponent by only three percentage points, the Bishop campaign responded with their own survey that posts the congressman to an 11-point lead.

The PPP data (Oct. 17-18; 400 likely GA-2 voters; live interview & text) found Rep. Bishop’s lead at 51-40 percent. The latter data is certainly more in line with the district voting history and statistics. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+4, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate the partisan lean at a more substantial 53.6D – 45.4R. The Down Ballot political blog ranks GA-2 as the 36th most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference.

ME-2: New Poll Shows One Point Race — Axis Research, polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee (Oct. 17-20; 411 likely ME-2 voters) sees GOP challenger Austin Theriault, a former NASCAR driver and current state representative, pulling ahead of three-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) by a scant 47-45 percent count.

Ranked Choice Voting, in this situation, may not play a role in the outcome because the ballot will feature only these two candidates. There is a qualified write-in contender, but it is unclear as to whether any votes that she receives would be enough to keep one of the contenders below 50 percent. Without a ballot presence, it is likely we will see a virtual one-on-one race. This could give the Republicans a chance to convert the seat. Such a win would increase the odds of the GOP holding their slim House majority.

Senate

Wisconsin: Sen. Baldwin Lapses to One-Point Edge — A fourth consecutive poll, this one from Emerson College (Oct. 21-22; 800 likely Wisconsin voters; multiple sampling techniques), finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D) lead over businessman Eric Hovde (R) falling to less than one percentage point, 48.4 – 47.7 percent.

Since Oct. 18, three other pollsters have found a similar result. Redfield & Wilton, Quinnipiac University, and the Trafalgar Group all posted the two candidates at even strength, or one-point Baldwin leads on their ballot test questions. While Sen. Baldwin had maintained a consistent advantage over a period of months, it appears clear that this race has moved to toss-up status.

Senate Recap – Part III

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 4, 2024

Senate

Our final segment of the three-part US Senate recap series covers the campaigns from Ohio through Wisconsin. At this point, the Republicans appear in favorable position to convert West Virginia and Montana while protecting Florida and Texas. Doing so would give the GOP a small Senate majority, but the question remains as to whether they can expand such a contingent beyond 51 senators.

Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D)

Ohio — One of the races where movement is detected is in the Buckeye State of Ohio where three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is defending his seat against GOP businessman Bernie Moreno. For months, this race stood with Sen. Brown holding a five-point edge even though former President Donald Trump was posting leads close to 10 points within the same polling samples. Within the past two weeks, however, the race has shown tightening tendencies as detected in publicly released polling.

Sen. Brown has been concentrating his campaign and major resource advantage on driving home the image that he delivers for Ohio and that the state is his top priority. He never mentions the national ticket, Washington, or anything related to the Democratic Party. While Sen. Brown had raised just under a huge $53 million through the end of June, we now see several outside Super PACs coming into the state to help Moreno and attack Brown. Whether this race flips to Moreno in the end still remains to be seen.

Pennsylvania — Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and his late father, Gov. Bob Casey Sr. (D), have together won seven statewide races in Pennsylvania, and the family is a legacy within the state. Lately, the Keystone State race has been the most polled Senate contest in the country and Casey’s once strong lead over Republican former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R) has narrowed.

This is another key race going down to the wire, but the Casey name is still very formidable in Pennsylvania even though Sen. Casey is far to the left of his more conservative late father. While Trump may well be in position to win here again, as he did in 2016, toppling Sen. Casey will prove to be much more difficult. This remains a race to watch, but Sen. Casey should still be regarded as the favorite.

Texas — We are hearing a familiar refrain from the Lone Star State Democrats as they attempt to sell their argument that Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) can upset Sen. Ted Cruz (R). While Cruz’s favorability numbers are not particularly high, and polling repeatedly shows a close race, such has been the case in many previous Texas races. Yet, in the end, Republicans prevailed with comfortable margins.

The state is changing politically. While Democrat candidates are doing well in the big cities, such as Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio, the rural areas are strongly Republican and the Hispanic voting patterns are showing further signs of moving closer to the GOP.

Expect the turnout model to favor the Republicans when voters actually cast their ballots. Because President Joe Biden’s energy policies have not been favorable to Texas’ mega oil and gas industry, and the southern border issue dominates the Lone Star issue matrix, it is likely that Rep. Allred, while an attractive candidate, picked the wrong year to attempt to reverse a statewide political trend that hasn’t seen a Democrat win a major office here since 1994.

Utah — Sen. Mitt Romney (R) is retiring after one term, and 3rd District Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo), due to his strong plurality win in a crowded GOP primary – recording 49 percent of the primary vote over three Republican opponents – is poised to easily capture the seat in November. As was the case when Curtis won his House seat in a 2017 special election, he fared poorly in this year’s Republican nominating convention but then rebounded to record a solid primary victory.

Environmental activist Caroline Gleich is the Democrat’s nominee but has little chance of winning the general election during a presidential year in solidly Republican Utah.

Virginia — Sen. Tim Kaine (D), the Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2016, seeks a third term in the Senate and should have little trouble winning in a state that has been definitively trending Democrat over the past decade with the 2021 statewide election being the lone exception. Prior to serving as a senator, Kaine had been elected governor of the state and mayor of Richmond, while being appointed as chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

The senator’s Republican opponent is retired Navy captain and ex-congressional candidate Hung Cao. While Cao over-performed in his congressional race even while losing, his Senate fundraising does not place him in the competitive realm with an accomplished incumbent such as Sen. Kaine. As was the case in his 2018 re-election campaign, expect Sen. Kaine to win re-election with a percentage in the high 50s.

West Virginia — Without Sen. Joe Manchin, now an Independent, on the November ballot, this race is a lock for GOP Gov. Jim Justice, who is ineligible to seek a third term in his current office. Running over 60 percent in the few polls taken of this contest, and seeing his Democratic opponent, Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott, failing to raise even $300,000 through the end of June, means the general election is a lock for the GOP and Gov. Justice, and with such a victory comes a 50-50 electoral tie in the Senate chamber.

Wisconsin — Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is on the statewide ballot for the third time, after serving seven terms in the US House and six years in the Wisconsin state Assembly. Her opponent is businessman Eric Hovde; potentially stronger Republican candidates such as Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville), decided not to run. Hovde did bring resources to the table when dropping at least $13 million of his own money into the race.

Sen. Baldwin has been polling ahead all year but, as in Pennsylvania and Ohio, we’ve seen a recent tightening of the campaign. Wisconsin races are always close, and the state will figure prominently in the presidential election outcome. Therefore, a late Republican surge here, should it develop, would make the Senate race interesting. Barring such a vote disposition, expect Sen. Baldwin to win re-election with a percentage figure in the low 50s.

Iowa Poll Shows Trump’s Lead at Four Points; Two Incumbents Trail in California; Close Race in VA-2

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 17, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump ahead in Iowa.

Iowa: Selzer & Company Poll Shows Trump’s Lead at Four Points — Media stories are covering the newly released Selzer & Company Iowa poll, which has proven to be the state’s most accurate pollster. According to the Selzer survey (Sept. 8-11; 656 likely Iowa voters; live interview), former President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris is 47-43 percent, which is being cast as a closing of the race in what has proven to be a strong Trump state.

Researching the Selzer Sept. 17-19 Iowa poll in 2020, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, the ballot test showed a tie between Trump and candidate Joe Biden. Biden would then move onto post an eight-point victory in the succeeding election.

House

CA-22: Rep. Valadao Trailing — California’s Fresno area 22nd District is the second-most Democratic seat that elects a Republican in the country. Therefore, Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) is always in a difficult re-election campaign. The Normington Petts research firm returned a late August survey (part of a six district series conducted for the House Majority PAC; 8/25-27; 400 CA-22 likely voters) that finds Rep. Valadao trailing former state assemblyman and 2022 opponent Rudy Salas (D) by two percentage points, 46-44 percent.

The analysis indicates that voters oppose Project 2025, feel it would be a “rubber stamp” for a new Trump Administration, and concentrates on the abortion issue. This suggests the series is in the push poll category. It is highly doubtful that in one of the lowest turnout districts in the country respondents would be familiar enough with Project 2025, a publication from the Heritage Foundation and not any candidate or the Republican Party, to harbor such a negative opinion. It is clear, however, that this race lies in the toss-up category as this poll shows.

CA-41: Strange Polling Results — There is little doubt that Republicans lost some momentum across the board in late August, but a newly released early September survey in California’s 41st District can’t be right. RMG Research conducted a series of online polls for US Term Limits over a long sampling period. The CA-41 poll (Sept. 5-12; 450 likely CA-41 voters; online) finds 16-term Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) trailing former federal prosecutor and 2022 Democratic nominee Will Rollins by a 41-35 percent split.

Calvert, who has represented the Riverside area for 32 years and defeated Rollins 52-48 percent in 2022, has to have more support than 35 percent in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+7. While this is again a competitive race, such a poll result, also with an unusually high undecided figure, should be considered as an outlier.

VA-2: Two Polls Show Close Race — A pair of congressional polls were released for the Tidewater area’s 2nd Congressional District. Both pollsters find close results, which is no surprise for a district that typically features tight campaigns. On the ballot is Virginia freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) and businesswoman Missy Cotter Smasal (D). For the House Majority PAC — a Super PAC with ties to the Democratic leadership — Impact Research reports their results in a poll conducted in late August and part of a six district series (Aug. 20-25; 500 likely VA-2 voters; live interview) that gives Rep. Kiggans only a one point edge, 48-47 percent.

A more recent survey gives Kiggans some better news. Christopher Newport University tested the 2nd District electorate (Sept. 6-10; 792 likely VA-2 voters; live interview) and they find the congresswoman in stronger shape with a 45-40 percent edge.

Poll Respondents Want Change; Ohio Moves Towards Moreno; Virginia
Lt. Gov. Announces for 2025 Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris: a tough path to winning in November. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

NYT/Siena College Poll: Respondents Want Change — In the latest national New York Times/Siena College survey (Sept. 3-6; 1,695 registered US voters; 1,374 likely voters), the pollsters queried the respondents about whether they wanted “a major change from President Biden.” A total of 61 percent of the respondents said they do, and by a margin of 53-25 percent further said that Donald Trump is the candidate who “represents major change in this election.” Yet, on the ballot test, former President Donald Trump’s national lead was only two percentage points, and Vice President Kamala Harris leads in most other national polls.

Nevada: Kennedy On, Greens Off — The key state of Nevada won’t let Robert F. Kennedy Jr. come off the ballot, and it won’t put the Green Party on. The state Supreme Court has ruled that Kennedy made his decision too late to be removed from the ballot after qualifying, while the Green Party did not meet the legal requirements. Both decisions appear to help Kamala Harris.

Ironically, the Nevada Democratic Party sued to have Kennedy removed before the candidate petitioned to strike his name. Therefore, it is possible the Nevada Democrats feel that Kennedy’s presence on the ballot actually helps Trump.

Senate

Ohio: Movement Toward Moreno — For the first time since Emerson College’s late January poll, the survey research entity’s most recent study (for The Hill newspaper; Sept. 3-5; 945 likely Ohio voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) leading businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by only a two point margin, 46-44 percent.

In late January, Emerson found the same spread. Since that time, Sen. Brown has averaged a five-point advantage from 10 polls conducted during the eight-month period. In all polls, as is the case with this most recent Emerson survey, Trump maintains a strong lead over his Democratic opponent. The current survey finds him leading Vice President Harris, 54-45 percent.

Governor

Virginia: Lt. Gov. Announces for 2025 Governor’s Race — Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears (R) late last week officially announced her 2025 gubernatorial candidacy, to no political observer’s surprise. It is most likely that she and Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen), who appears to be unopposed for the Democratic nomination, will square off in the open general election. Though Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) enjoys favorable job approval ratings, the state’s voting history suggests that Spanberger will be considered the favorite to win the impending statewide race.

Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) has not ruled out joining the race after the 2024 elections, but it is doubtful that he would challenge Sears. More than likely, he seeks re-election.

Though Virginia limits its governors to one term, the only state to do so, its other constitutional offices of lieutenant governor and attorney general have no such limit. In fact, incumbents in the other offices have no limitation on how many terms they may serve.