Tag Archives: Virginia

VA-2 Up for Grabs; Bishop Rebounds in GA-2; One-Point Race in ME-2; & A One-Point Lead for Baldwin in Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 28, 2024

House

Freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach)

VA-2: Rep. Kiggans Dropping to Toss-Up Status — A Christopher Newport University survey (Oct. 11-20; 800 likely VA-2 voters; live interview) sees freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) leading Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal by only a single percentage point, 46-45 percent, in a district that former President Donald Trump lost by two percentage points in 2020 and trails by two in this survey.

This is another tight congressional race that will go a long way toward determining the House majority. If the Democrats unseat Rep. Kiggans, it is highly likely that they will wrest the majority away from the Republicans. VA-2 becomes a must-win for the Republicans, so expect to see some further independent expenditure money coming into the district during the final week of campaigning.

According to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart early vote tracking operation, the modeled party calculation shows the Democratic participation rate up two points, the Republicans so far down two points, and the Independents off 1.5 percent from the 2020 totals. Yet, the rural vote is up five points, the suburban participation also up five, and the urban sector down just under nine points. All of this means, at least at this point in the projection process, that we will see a close finish.

GA-2: Rep. Bishop Rebounds — After the co/efficient polling firm last week produced a ballot test finding veteran Georgia Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Albany) leading his underfunded Republican opponent by only three percentage points, the Bishop campaign responded with their own survey that posts the congressman to an 11-point lead.

The PPP data (Oct. 17-18; 400 likely GA-2 voters; live interview & text) found Rep. Bishop’s lead at 51-40 percent. The latter data is certainly more in line with the district voting history and statistics. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+4, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate the partisan lean at a more substantial 53.6D – 45.4R. The Down Ballot political blog ranks GA-2 as the 36th most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference.

ME-2: New Poll Shows One Point Race — Axis Research, polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee (Oct. 17-20; 411 likely ME-2 voters) sees GOP challenger Austin Theriault, a former NASCAR driver and current state representative, pulling ahead of three-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) by a scant 47-45 percent count.

Ranked Choice Voting, in this situation, may not play a role in the outcome because the ballot will feature only these two candidates. There is a qualified write-in contender, but it is unclear as to whether any votes that she receives would be enough to keep one of the contenders below 50 percent. Without a ballot presence, it is likely we will see a virtual one-on-one race. This could give the Republicans a chance to convert the seat. Such a win would increase the odds of the GOP holding their slim House majority.

Senate

Wisconsin: Sen. Baldwin Lapses to One-Point Edge — A fourth consecutive poll, this one from Emerson College (Oct. 21-22; 800 likely Wisconsin voters; multiple sampling techniques), finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D) lead over businessman Eric Hovde (R) falling to less than one percentage point, 48.4 – 47.7 percent.

Since Oct. 18, three other pollsters have found a similar result. Redfield & Wilton, Quinnipiac University, and the Trafalgar Group all posted the two candidates at even strength, or one-point Baldwin leads on their ballot test questions. While Sen. Baldwin had maintained a consistent advantage over a period of months, it appears clear that this race has moved to toss-up status.

Senate Recap – Part III

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 4, 2024

Senate

Our final segment of the three-part US Senate recap series covers the campaigns from Ohio through Wisconsin. At this point, the Republicans appear in favorable position to convert West Virginia and Montana while protecting Florida and Texas. Doing so would give the GOP a small Senate majority, but the question remains as to whether they can expand such a contingent beyond 51 senators.

Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D)

Ohio — One of the races where movement is detected is in the Buckeye State of Ohio where three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is defending his seat against GOP businessman Bernie Moreno. For months, this race stood with Sen. Brown holding a five-point edge even though former President Donald Trump was posting leads close to 10 points within the same polling samples. Within the past two weeks, however, the race has shown tightening tendencies as detected in publicly released polling.

Sen. Brown has been concentrating his campaign and major resource advantage on driving home the image that he delivers for Ohio and that the state is his top priority. He never mentions the national ticket, Washington, or anything related to the Democratic Party. While Sen. Brown had raised just under a huge $53 million through the end of June, we now see several outside Super PACs coming into the state to help Moreno and attack Brown. Whether this race flips to Moreno in the end still remains to be seen.

Pennsylvania — Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and his late father, Gov. Bob Casey Sr. (D), have together won seven statewide races in Pennsylvania, and the family is a legacy within the state. Lately, the Keystone State race has been the most polled Senate contest in the country and Casey’s once strong lead over Republican former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R) has narrowed.

This is another key race going down to the wire, but the Casey name is still very formidable in Pennsylvania even though Sen. Casey is far to the left of his more conservative late father. While Trump may well be in position to win here again, as he did in 2016, toppling Sen. Casey will prove to be much more difficult. This remains a race to watch, but Sen. Casey should still be regarded as the favorite.

Texas — We are hearing a familiar refrain from the Lone Star State Democrats as they attempt to sell their argument that Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) can upset Sen. Ted Cruz (R). While Cruz’s favorability numbers are not particularly high, and polling repeatedly shows a close race, such has been the case in many previous Texas races. Yet, in the end, Republicans prevailed with comfortable margins.

The state is changing politically. While Democrat candidates are doing well in the big cities, such as Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio, the rural areas are strongly Republican and the Hispanic voting patterns are showing further signs of moving closer to the GOP.

Expect the turnout model to favor the Republicans when voters actually cast their ballots. Because President Joe Biden’s energy policies have not been favorable to Texas’ mega oil and gas industry, and the southern border issue dominates the Lone Star issue matrix, it is likely that Rep. Allred, while an attractive candidate, picked the wrong year to attempt to reverse a statewide political trend that hasn’t seen a Democrat win a major office here since 1994.

Utah — Sen. Mitt Romney (R) is retiring after one term, and 3rd District Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo), due to his strong plurality win in a crowded GOP primary – recording 49 percent of the primary vote over three Republican opponents – is poised to easily capture the seat in November. As was the case when Curtis won his House seat in a 2017 special election, he fared poorly in this year’s Republican nominating convention but then rebounded to record a solid primary victory.

Environmental activist Caroline Gleich is the Democrat’s nominee but has little chance of winning the general election during a presidential year in solidly Republican Utah.

Virginia — Sen. Tim Kaine (D), the Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2016, seeks a third term in the Senate and should have little trouble winning in a state that has been definitively trending Democrat over the past decade with the 2021 statewide election being the lone exception. Prior to serving as a senator, Kaine had been elected governor of the state and mayor of Richmond, while being appointed as chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

The senator’s Republican opponent is retired Navy captain and ex-congressional candidate Hung Cao. While Cao over-performed in his congressional race even while losing, his Senate fundraising does not place him in the competitive realm with an accomplished incumbent such as Sen. Kaine. As was the case in his 2018 re-election campaign, expect Sen. Kaine to win re-election with a percentage in the high 50s.

West Virginia — Without Sen. Joe Manchin, now an Independent, on the November ballot, this race is a lock for GOP Gov. Jim Justice, who is ineligible to seek a third term in his current office. Running over 60 percent in the few polls taken of this contest, and seeing his Democratic opponent, Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott, failing to raise even $300,000 through the end of June, means the general election is a lock for the GOP and Gov. Justice, and with such a victory comes a 50-50 electoral tie in the Senate chamber.

Wisconsin — Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is on the statewide ballot for the third time, after serving seven terms in the US House and six years in the Wisconsin state Assembly. Her opponent is businessman Eric Hovde; potentially stronger Republican candidates such as Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville), decided not to run. Hovde did bring resources to the table when dropping at least $13 million of his own money into the race.

Sen. Baldwin has been polling ahead all year but, as in Pennsylvania and Ohio, we’ve seen a recent tightening of the campaign. Wisconsin races are always close, and the state will figure prominently in the presidential election outcome. Therefore, a late Republican surge here, should it develop, would make the Senate race interesting. Barring such a vote disposition, expect Sen. Baldwin to win re-election with a percentage figure in the low 50s.

Iowa Poll Shows Trump’s Lead at Four Points; Two Incumbents Trail in California; Close Race in VA-2

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 17, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump ahead in Iowa.

Iowa: Selzer & Company Poll Shows Trump’s Lead at Four Points — Media stories are covering the newly released Selzer & Company Iowa poll, which has proven to be the state’s most accurate pollster. According to the Selzer survey (Sept. 8-11; 656 likely Iowa voters; live interview), former President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris is 47-43 percent, which is being cast as a closing of the race in what has proven to be a strong Trump state.

Researching the Selzer Sept. 17-19 Iowa poll in 2020, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, the ballot test showed a tie between Trump and candidate Joe Biden. Biden would then move onto post an eight-point victory in the succeeding election.

House

CA-22: Rep. Valadao Trailing — California’s Fresno area 22nd District is the second-most Democratic seat that elects a Republican in the country. Therefore, Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) is always in a difficult re-election campaign. The Normington Petts research firm returned a late August survey (part of a six district series conducted for the House Majority PAC; 8/25-27; 400 CA-22 likely voters) that finds Rep. Valadao trailing former state assemblyman and 2022 opponent Rudy Salas (D) by two percentage points, 46-44 percent.

The analysis indicates that voters oppose Project 2025, feel it would be a “rubber stamp” for a new Trump Administration, and concentrates on the abortion issue. This suggests the series is in the push poll category. It is highly doubtful that in one of the lowest turnout districts in the country respondents would be familiar enough with Project 2025, a publication from the Heritage Foundation and not any candidate or the Republican Party, to harbor such a negative opinion. It is clear, however, that this race lies in the toss-up category as this poll shows.

CA-41: Strange Polling Results — There is little doubt that Republicans lost some momentum across the board in late August, but a newly released early September survey in California’s 41st District can’t be right. RMG Research conducted a series of online polls for US Term Limits over a long sampling period. The CA-41 poll (Sept. 5-12; 450 likely CA-41 voters; online) finds 16-term Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) trailing former federal prosecutor and 2022 Democratic nominee Will Rollins by a 41-35 percent split.

Calvert, who has represented the Riverside area for 32 years and defeated Rollins 52-48 percent in 2022, has to have more support than 35 percent in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+7. While this is again a competitive race, such a poll result, also with an unusually high undecided figure, should be considered as an outlier.

VA-2: Two Polls Show Close Race — A pair of congressional polls were released for the Tidewater area’s 2nd Congressional District. Both pollsters find close results, which is no surprise for a district that typically features tight campaigns. On the ballot is Virginia freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) and businesswoman Missy Cotter Smasal (D). For the House Majority PAC — a Super PAC with ties to the Democratic leadership — Impact Research reports their results in a poll conducted in late August and part of a six district series (Aug. 20-25; 500 likely VA-2 voters; live interview) that gives Rep. Kiggans only a one point edge, 48-47 percent.

A more recent survey gives Kiggans some better news. Christopher Newport University tested the 2nd District electorate (Sept. 6-10; 792 likely VA-2 voters; live interview) and they find the congresswoman in stronger shape with a 45-40 percent edge.

Poll Respondents Want Change; Ohio Moves Towards Moreno; Virginia
Lt. Gov. Announces for 2025 Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris: a tough path to winning in November. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

NYT/Siena College Poll: Respondents Want Change — In the latest national New York Times/Siena College survey (Sept. 3-6; 1,695 registered US voters; 1,374 likely voters), the pollsters queried the respondents about whether they wanted “a major change from President Biden.” A total of 61 percent of the respondents said they do, and by a margin of 53-25 percent further said that Donald Trump is the candidate who “represents major change in this election.” Yet, on the ballot test, former President Donald Trump’s national lead was only two percentage points, and Vice President Kamala Harris leads in most other national polls.

Nevada: Kennedy On, Greens Off — The key state of Nevada won’t let Robert F. Kennedy Jr. come off the ballot, and it won’t put the Green Party on. The state Supreme Court has ruled that Kennedy made his decision too late to be removed from the ballot after qualifying, while the Green Party did not meet the legal requirements. Both decisions appear to help Kamala Harris.

Ironically, the Nevada Democratic Party sued to have Kennedy removed before the candidate petitioned to strike his name. Therefore, it is possible the Nevada Democrats feel that Kennedy’s presence on the ballot actually helps Trump.

Senate

Ohio: Movement Toward Moreno — For the first time since Emerson College’s late January poll, the survey research entity’s most recent study (for The Hill newspaper; Sept. 3-5; 945 likely Ohio voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) leading businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by only a two point margin, 46-44 percent.

In late January, Emerson found the same spread. Since that time, Sen. Brown has averaged a five-point advantage from 10 polls conducted during the eight-month period. In all polls, as is the case with this most recent Emerson survey, Trump maintains a strong lead over his Democratic opponent. The current survey finds him leading Vice President Harris, 54-45 percent.

Governor

Virginia: Lt. Gov. Announces for 2025 Governor’s Race — Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears (R) late last week officially announced her 2025 gubernatorial candidacy, to no political observer’s surprise. It is most likely that she and Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen), who appears to be unopposed for the Democratic nomination, will square off in the open general election. Though Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) enjoys favorable job approval ratings, the state’s voting history suggests that Spanberger will be considered the favorite to win the impending statewide race.

Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) has not ruled out joining the race after the 2024 elections, but it is doubtful that he would challenge Sears. More than likely, he seeks re-election.

Though Virginia limits its governors to one term, the only state to do so, its other constitutional offices of lieutenant governor and attorney general have no such limit. In fact, incumbents in the other offices have no limitation on how many terms they may serve.

House Open Seats: The Change Factor

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 29, 2024

House

Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Once again, we see a large number of open seats in the US House of Representatives, something that has been common throughout the previous decade and the beginning of this one, yet in 2024 very few open seats are poised to flip to the opposite party.

In a political body where incumbent retention is extraordinarily high – in 2022 we saw 98.1 percent of House incumbents who sought re-election win – and will almost assuredly be again so in 2024, most often seats that convert to the opposite party do so in open status.

That’s not the case in 2024. Currently, we find 55 open seats, 29 coming from the Democratic column, 25 from the Republicans, with one district, AL-2, which was created as a new seat in a secondary redistricting redraw. Yet from this number, and not counting the eight seats that were open during the cycle and filled in special elections, one could argue that only 10 will either flip or see a serious competition level.

At the end of the cycle, it would not be surprising to see only those affected by a second round of redistricting flip, meaning the three seats in North Carolina changing from Democrat to Republican, and one each moving from Republican to Democrat in Alabama and Louisiana.

Therefore, of the current 55 open House seats, it appears very likely that 50 will remain with the incumbent party or flip because of redistricting. Therefore, in only five instances do we see an open seat where the controlling party might change via election.

Perhaps the most hotly contested open seat lies in southern California where Rep. Katie Porter’s (D-Irvine) Orange County-anchored 47th District should be rated as a toss-up. Former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R), who finished first in the jungle primary, and state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine), who finished second, are the general election finalists.

If the jungle primary partisan breakdown is any indication as to how this race might end, and it may well be, then this is one that could take weeks to decide under the elongated ballot counting and signature verification process that California employs.

In the qualification election, Baugh finished first with 32.1 percent while Sen. Min captured 25.9 percent. The aggregate Republican percentage total from three candidates was 49.6 percent. The total Democratic percentage dispersed through four candidates was 47.1 percent, with the remaining 3.3 percent divided among a trio of No Party Preference candidates. CA-47 leans Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+6, and the Daily Kos Elections statisticians, now with The Down Ballot data site, ranks the 47th as the 32nd most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference.

The district that Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) vacated, which covers Colorado’s western slope mountain region, should be a Republican CD. The FiveThirtyEight data team sees a GOP advantage of R+15, and The Down Ballot organization ranks the district as the 51st most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. Still, Democrat Adam Frisch has raised more money than all House candidates in the nation with the exception of the former House Speaker and Democratic Leader.

Though he already spent three-quarters of his money, most of which was raised when he was running against Rep. Boebert, Frisch still had almost $4 million more at his disposal in late June than new Republican nominee Jeffrey Hurd. Resources and residual name ID and losing the closest election of 2022 gives Frisch a fighting chance in what should be a safe Republican seat.

On paper, central/east Michigan’s 7th and 8th Districts appear as pure toss-ups. In actuality, with President Joe Biden taking the reconfigured 7th with a 49.4 – 48.9 percent tight victory and a slightly larger 50.3 – 48.2 percent finish in the adjacent 8th CD, as well as continuing to re-elect Democratic House members, 2024 US Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin and retiring Rep. Dan Kildee, the party has a more discernible edge than the dead even statistical calculations suggest.

This gives former state Rep. Curtis Hertel (D) and state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) the probable advantage they will need to beat their respective Republican opponents, ex-state senator and 2022 congressional nominee Tom Barrett and three-time congressional nominee Paul Junge, respectively.

Virginia’s 7th CD, open because Democratic incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger is preparing a 2025 run for governor, is another seat that looks more vulnerable on paper than it does in terms of actual vote counting. The FiveThirtyEight data organization ranks the 7th, that stretches from the outer Richmond suburbs to the Washington, DC exburbs, as D+2, and it ranks as the 17th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

President Biden, however, recorded a more comfortable 52.6 – 45.8 percent majority and Rep. Spanberger scored a 51-49 percent re-election victory even though the congresswoman faced a constituency where three-quarters of the district’s residents were not in her previous district.

In the open seat election, retired Army officer Eugene Vindman (D) has a huge resource advantage over Iraq War veteran Derrick Anderson (R). Vindman had a 7:1 fundraising advantage over Anderson according to the most recent campaign disclosure filings.

At the end of the campaign cycle, it would not be surprising to see no open seat flip to the opposite party without the aid of a new redistricting map. If so, we will see yet another unique facet of the wild 2024 election cycle.

Harris: A Tough Road Ahead

Vice President Kamala Harris: a tough path to winning in November. (Photo by Gage Skidmore)

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 23, 2024

President

While Vice President Kamala Harris is well positioned to replace President Joe Biden as the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee, her task of winning the general election is anything but easy. New polls in the key swing states start her in an underdog position in virtually every key place that will determine the final outcome.

As we know, there are six states considered prime swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Before Biden announced his exit, another half-dozen surprising domains were showing competitive signs: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Virginia. This means that former President Donald Trump was either leading in the most recent state survey or within a point or two of moving ahead. It remains to be seen if any of these second-tier swing states truly become competitive in a Trump-Harris race.

July polling in eight of these states illustrates the Harris difficulty factor in overcoming Trump’s current advantage. None of the states are out of play, since the Trump leads are all in single digits, but the fact that she would have to simultaneously hold nine of 12 domains increases the difficulty factor.

Vice President Harris’ biggest problem is that three of the states, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, appear locked for Trump. We have seen 26 publicly released polls from Arizona since January 1, and Trump leads in all. The Public Policy Polling organization conducted a Grand Canyon State survey during the July 19-20 period (736 registered Arizona voters), and Trump holds a six-point, 46-40 percent, advantage against Harris.

In Georgia, 24 Trump-Biden polls were conducted in 2024, and as in Arizona, Trump leads all. Two Trump-Harris polls have been conducted in July. The University of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper (July 9-18; 1,000 likely Georgia voters) finds Trump holding a five-point edge over VP Harris. Insider Advantage (July 15-16; 800 likely Georgia voters) projects an even larger 10-point lead.

Nevada is turning in similar numbers. In 2024, a total of 22 Trump-Biden polls have been released, and Trump led in 21 with one tie. Insider Advantage conducted the most recent Trump-Harris poll (July 15-16; 800 likely Nevada voters) and Trump holds a 10-point, 50-40 percent, margin over the vice president.

These three states are significant because the data suggests that they are solid for Trump. Should he carry through and win them all, the former president would add 33 electoral votes to his 2020 national total, meaning he would be literally just one state away from winning the national election.

This is what makes Harris’s path difficult. Her margin of error if conceding Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada is just one state.

Therefore, looking at the remaining top-tier swings of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris would have to sweep them.

Today, she trails Trump in Michigan by five percentage points according to Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling (July 17-18; 650 registered Michigan voters)

The latest Pennsylvania numbers tell a similar tale. SoCal Research (July 20-21; 500 likely Pennsylvania voters) yields Trump a 50-46 percent edge over Harris.

In Wisconsin, Harris fares a bit better, but still could easily lose. The Civiqs research organization, polling for Daily Kos Elections (July 13-16; 514 registered Wisconsin voters), sees Trump and Harris deadlocked at 48 percent apiece.

There is some current data appearing from the second tier, though no July polling has been released for Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, and New Mexico.

In New Hampshire, a state the former president twice lost to Hillary Clinton and President Biden, a group called Praecones Analytica just tested the electorate (July 19-21; 601 registered New Hampshire voters) and shows Trump holding a one-point, 40-39 percent, edge over VP Harris.

Finally, Florida Atlantic University tested the Virginia electorate with a released small sample survey (July 14-15; 301 registered Virginia voters) and projects Trump with a 41-40 percent lead over Harris.

As you can see, the point deficit in any of the nine first- and second-tier swing and potentially competitive states is not insurmountable in any instance. The vice president’s problem is that she must win all of these swing states, assuming Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada continue their year-long trend of favoring former President Trump. Therefore, of the remaining targets, Vice President Harris must run the table if she is to claim the White House since her margin of error is virtually depleted.

New Hampshire & New Mexico

Could New Hampshire & New Mexico be in play for Republicans?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 19, 2024

President

Even before the Trump assassination attempt and the Republican National Convention commenced, polling was beginning to suggest that some unusual states were venturing into the competitive realm.

At this point in the election cycle, it appears that the top conversion targets for the Trump campaign are Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Together, these states would deliver 33 of the 35 conversion electoral votes (from those states that voted for President Biden in 2020 but are strong potential Trump states in 2024) the former president would need to win the national election.

In the trio of these states since the beginning of this year, Trump has not trailed in any of the cumulative 62 polls from 15 different pollsters conducted in the three entities. If these states vote Trump in 2024, then the electoral map significantly changes.

Obviously, beyond Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, the three commonly discussed Great Lakes states are clear battleground regions: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Now, however, cumulative polling suggests other places could be potential Trump conversion opportunities. It is important, however, to determine which might legitimate prospects to flip as compared to those where the newly crowned Republican nominee could do well but might only come close to President Biden’s vote percentage.

The states in question are Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Virginia. One victory in any of the aforementioned, or converting the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska (via an Electoral College tie), would award the election to former President Trump, assuming all 25 states that he twice carried return to his column.

While a Trump plurality victory is certainly within the realm of possibility in Maine since polling suggests his lead in the northern ME-2 district is at or near 20 percentage points, his chances of losing the 1st District by less than such a spread are good. Therefore, Trump could reasonably place first in Maine. His problem is the state’s Ranked Choice Voting system. Because it is doubtful he could secure majority support in the state — more than 50 percent — Trump would likely lose to President Biden in the RCV rounds.

Minnesota is the most loyal Democratic state in modern presidential campaign history. The last time the Land of 10,000 Lakes voted for a Republican in the national election came in 1972 when the state chose then-President Richard Nixon over then-Sen. George McGovern (D). Every other state has voted for a Republican at least one time since that election. In 2016, Mr. Trump came within 1.5 points of Hillary Clinton in Minnesota, which is probably the best he could do in 2024.

New Jersey is a state where Republicans poll better than they run, unlike some of the southern states where the opposite is true. The latest publicly released survey (co/efficient; June 26-27; 810 likely New Jersey general election voters; live interview & text) found Trump actually posting a slight 41-40 percent lead over President Biden in the Garden State. Such a margin is unlikely to occur when actual votes are cast, making New Jersey a “fool’s gold” state for Republicans.

Virginia also is unlikely to flip. The Washington, DC metro area in its entirety, meaning the city itself as well as the Northern Virginia and Maryland suburbs, is historically Trump’s worst-performing area in the country. Therefore, looking at the increased population in northern Virginia and Trump’s unpopularity in the region suggests that his three-point deficit spread found in the July 12-15 Florida Atlantic University survey of 918 likely Virginia voters is the closest that Trump will come to victory in the state.

The New Hampshire and New Mexico situations, however, look different. Both states are small, campaigning is relatively cheap, and though they have Democratic voting histories certainly since 2016, both could be seriously in play come November.

New Hampshire has elected a Republican governor in four straight elections and though outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is no fan of Trump’s, he pledged to vote for him and if the state is in a position to make a national difference, the governor will put the campaign levers in place to help push Trump over the top.

New Hampshire, however, has not been kind to the Republican presidential candidates. Since the 2012 presidential election, national Republican nominees have averaged only 46.1 percent of the vote as compared to the Democratic contenders 50.5 percent. Yet, the Granite State still has swing characteristics.

The New Mexico numbers are slightly worse than those in New Hampshire. The cumulative average in presidential races since 2012, inclusive, finds the Democratic nominee attracting a mean average of 51.8 percent compared to the Republicans’ 42.1 percent. Yet, with a plurality Hispanic Voting Age Population figure (44.3 percent Hispanic; 40.5 percent Anglo), and more Hispanic voters professing openness toward Republicans, the state may well be closer in 2024 than what previous statistics show.

If the Trump campaign is to overcome their electoral vote deficit, they must first expand the playing field, which they appear to be doing, continue to concentrate on Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and then invest in some longer-shot states in the hope that one comes through. Two such candidates for long-shot victory are clearly New Hampshire and New Mexico.