Tag Archives: Virginia

Redistricting Becoming Clearer

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025

Redistricting

Putting together the redistricting puzzle

The redistricting wars may be coming to a head. Recent action has occurred in several states providing a better national redistricting picture in preparation for the 2026 election.

Below is a synopsis of the latest developments:

California: After a majority of California voters approved the special election redistricting referendum, a racial gerrymandering lawsuit was filed against the state’s new map.

Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court issued a stay on the Texas racial gerrymandering lawsuit, with a rebuke from Justice Samuel Alito to the three-judge panel in El Paso for rendering a decision before the high court ruled on a related Louisiana racial gerrymandering case. Thus, it became clear that all other cases would be held until the high court issues what could be a landmark ruling.

The judicial action likely means the new California map will be in place for the 2026 election. The original map proponents believe the plan will return five more seats for the Democrats, reducing the Republicans to just four of 52 Golden State districts.

Florida: Late last week, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said that the state will redistrict the congressional map and do so during the Spring. The Florida primary is not scheduled until Aug. 18, so time remains to complete the redistricting process. It is possible that Republicans could gain two seats from a new map.

Georgia: A new Georgia map has been completed. The legislature made minor changes to the existing plan that will not likely affect the current partisan division (9R-5D).

Indiana: Late last week, the Indiana state Senate defeated a redistricting map that the state House passed. The plan would have converted two Democratic seats to Republican, thus sweeping the nine-member delegation. Unless the Senate reconsiders the action, the current 7R-2D map will remain intact for the 2026 election.

Louisiana: The US Supreme Court is considering the Callais racial gerrymandering case that could become the vehicle for the justices to render a landmark racial gerrymandering decision. A ruling was expected in June, but the justices postponed their opinion and ordered a second round of oral arguments. The subsequent hearing was held Oct. 15, and all await a final determination.

If the court upholds the lower court decision, the current Louisiana map will be invalidated, meaning the Republicans will likely gain one seat. Should this be the Supreme Court’s ultimate decision, then the possibility exists that the Alabama map will also be redrawn because its plan is virtually identical to Louisiana’s.

Maryland: In a situation similar to what is found in Indiana, most of the Maryland Democratic political establishment favors attempting to collapse their one Republican congressional district, but the state Senate leadership refuses to take action. Therefore, unless the Senate President completely reverses himself, a new redistricting map will not be enacted.

Missouri: The Missouri legislature and Governor have enacted a new map that will likely convert the Kansas City anchored 5th CD from Democratic to Republican. Opponents of the map, officially organized under a group name entitled People Not Politicians, have collected double the number of signatures needed to force a special election initiative vote with the goal of repealing the new map. If a ruling is made qualifying the initiative for the ballot, voters will then decide if the new map will stand.

Under Missouri procedure, simply qualifying the initiative will suspend the new map. This means the state would be forced to revert to the 2021 map for the 2026 election. An initiative vote would occur in the regular election cycle. If the voters adopt the new plan, it would take effect in the 2028 election cycle.

North Carolina: The legislature’s new congressional map will almost assuredly stand for the 2026 election. The initial complaint protesting the plan was rejected at the lower court level. The US Supreme Court’s action involving the Texas case suggests that no further judicial movement will occur on the new North Carolina plan before the candidate filing deadline on Dec. 19. Therefore, it is likely that Republicans will gain one seat in the Tar Heel delegation.

Ohio: The bipartisan elected official redistricting commission unanimously agreed upon a new congressional map, one that state law mandated be drawn. Under the Ohio procedure, a unanimous decision from the redistricting panel, which included Gov. Mike DeWine (R), means the map is officially enacted without action from the state legislature. The new plan will likely produce a one seat gain for Republicans in western Ohio, with the outside possibility of a second conversion in Cincinnati.

Texas: As discussed above, the Supreme Court stayed the three-judge panel decision that ruled the new map a racial gerrymander. Candidate filing has concluded, so the new 2025 map will be in place for the 2026 elections. The original map proponents believe the plan will return five more seats for the Republicans.

Utah: A state court ruled that the legislature ignored certain criteria that voters adopted in a previous redistricting initiative. Therefore, the 2021 map was declared invalid, a ruling that the state Supreme Court sustained. The court then adopted a new map that created a Salt Lake City Democratic seat. The new plan will produce a 3R-1D map for the 2026 election, which is a gain of one Democratic seat.

Virginia: The Old Dominion redistricting effort may determine which party wins the national redistricting wars. With the Democrats gaining full control of the state government, the new legislature must pass a referendum for the ballot when they convene in January. The measure will have to fulfill other legal requirements, and a special statewide referendum election is required. Voters would have to approve a new map before the April 2 candidate filing deadline for the June 16 primary election.

Democrats claim they can draw a map that will relegate Republicans to just one seat in the 11-member delegation. Currently, the Virginia congressional districts split 6D-5R. A four-seat swing in this state could tip the balance of power toward the Democrats in their quest for the US House majority.

A Democratic Sweep: Sherrill, Spanberger, Mamdani and More All Win

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2025

Elections

New York City voters elected Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani as their next Mayor.

Last night’s election results yielded victories for Democrats across the board and it appears that high prices and the state of the economy are among the top reasons.

Of course, Democrats will argue that their attacks against President Trump compared to the election results is a rejection of the current administration, and the votes provide evidence for such a claim, but New Jersey and New York City are heavily Democratic enclaves, and the Washington, DC metropolitan area, including the Northern Virginia and Maryland suburbs have repeatedly proven itself as the most anti-Trump region in the country.

Therefore, within the partisan context, the election results should not be considered overly surprising.

New York City

As expected, state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (Democratic/Working Families) was elected Mayor of New York City last night, capturing what looks to be a bare majority of the vote.

In the end, it appears the self-described Democratic Socialist outpaced former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (Fight and Deliver Party), and Curtis Sliwa (Republican/Protect Animals Party) by a 50.4 – 41.6 – 7.1 percent margin. Polling did not fully capture Mamdani’s strength, nor Republican Sliwa’s weakness. In particular, the latter man polled approximately ten points better on average than his ultimate performance.

Certainly, barely going over the 50 percent mark gives Mamdani the mandate he needs to implement his more radical agenda, and certainly will have support to do so from the New York City Council. Much more to come in the ensuing weeks about this result and the new Mamdani Administration.

New Jersey

This gubernatorial election outcome was one of the most surprising decisions of last night as Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) scored what will likely be a 56-43 percent win over 2021 Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli despite polling that suggested the race was falling into the toss-up range.

The Sherrill victory represents the first time a political party has won three consecutive New Jersey gubernatorial elections since World War II.

With the Congresswoman’s victory, we will see another special congressional election, this time in her 11th District seat. Sherrill will resign from the House shortly before she assumes the Governorship in mid-January. One of her first duties will be to schedule the special election for voters to elect her successor. Already vying for positioning are former NJ-7 Congressman Tom Malinowski (D) and several local Democratic officials.

Virginia

Polling in this race was spot on, as survey research firms were not only consistently projecting an Abigail Spanberger victory, but they also saw the surge for the Democratic candidates in the final week of early voting and on Election Day. The combination carried not only Spanberger, but also Lt. Gov.-Elect Ghazala Hashmi and Attorney General-Elect Jay Jones to victory as part of the Democratic sweep.

The most surprising result was Jones defeating AG Miyares after the controversy broke several weeks ago about him fantasizing about killing his Republican opponents. Much analysis about the Attorney General’s result will be forthcoming over the next period of days when the actual results can be digested.

California Proposition 50

As expected, last night Golden State special election voters easily adopted the referendum to replace the California Citizens Redistricting Commission congressional map with a plan that Gov. Gavin Newsom had drawn. The redraw gerrymander could net the Democrats five seats and reduce the Republicans to four of the state’s 52 congressional districts.

Whether the map actually produces such results remain to be seen in the 2026 election. We can expect to see legal challenges to the entire process to soon be forthcoming but with a strong public vote, overturning the new map becomes very difficult.

TX-18

The jungle primary for the third of four special congressional elections to fill vacancies was held in Houston last night. The results will go to a runoff election that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule as soon as the Secretary of State verifies that no candidate received a majority of the vote.

The verification will come quickly, since Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D) placed first and second with 32 and 25 percent of the vote, respectively. Therefore, no one came close to obtaining majority support.

The problem for whoever wins the runoff election, which will likely be in January, is that he or she will have to turn around and participate in a March 3, 2026, primary in another version of the 18th District and against incumbent Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) under the new Texas congressional map.

The Democrats are assured of keeping the 18th District seat to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston), but the prize may be short-lived because the regular primary in the new district will be just weeks after securing victory.

Election Day Preview

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025

Elections

The major odd-numbered elections are upon us with early voting completed and election day occurring today in New Jersey, New York City, and Virginia. Polling projects a good night forthcoming for Democrats, but the available early voting statistics suggest Republicans might be stronger than the polls indicate.

New Jersey

The open Governor’s race is the main focus on the Garden State ballot, and it may well become the most interesting contest to follow tonight.

The polling momentum has closed in Republican Jack Ciattarelli’s favor with the latest five publicly released surveys from the Oct. 25-30 period finding Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) holding an average 3.4 percentage point advantage. This number is down from a much higher range, usually in the upper single digits, for most of the race.

Furthermore, if the SoCal Strategies poll (Oct. 28-29; 800 likely New Jersey voters) is removed from the group because its seven-point spread (52-45 percent) is an outlier when compared with the other four (Atlas Intel, Emerson College, Quantus Insights, and Suffolk University), the Sherrill average point lead drops to 2.5.

Additionally, Ciattarelli has under-polled in his previous races, particularly in the primary earlier this year and by a large amount. Going into the five-way 2025 Republican primary, Ciattarelli’s highest preference number was 54 percent yet he ended with a 68 percent actual vote total. Should this Ciattarelli under-poll pattern continue in this year’s general election, we could see an upset.

New Jersey early voting statistics are not as available as in some other places, but Ciattarelli’s assessment that more Republicans are voting early that ever before appears correct. According to CBS News, approximately 514,500 Democrats have voted early as compared to an approximate 279,000 Republicans, and 177,000 non-affiliated and minor party voters.

These raw number figures translate into 56.5 percent of the early voters being Democrats, 30.6 percent Republicans, and 12.9 percent non-affiliated and others. While the Democrats lead the early vote count, their percentage is down from 2024 when the Dems accounted for 68.0 percent of the early voting participation numbers and 2022 when their percentage was 59.9 according to the Target Early Target Smart organization calculations.

Though the 2025 Republican number is much smaller than the Democratic percentage, it is up from 27.4 percent in 2024, but down from a 32.2 percent participation factor in 2022. The Non-affiliated/ Other category accounted for 4.7 percent of the early voters in 2024 and 7.9 percent in 2022. Therefore, the NA/O segment’s 12.9 percent early turnout is considerably ahead of the previous elections.

New York City

While Assemblyman and New York City mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani’s (D) polling percentages are falling somewhat as Election Day dawns, the three-way candidate structure virtually assures that he will win tomorrow’s election, but likely with only a plurality of the votes.

While the majority of NYC voters are likely to choose a mayoral candidate other than the Democratic nominee, the split between former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (I) and Republican Curtis Sliwa will benefit Mamdani.

Since the race has not changed greatly since Cuomo entered under a minor party label after losing the Democratic primary, today’s outcome is unlikely to be surprising.

Virginia

In the Old Dominion’s gubernatorial race, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger is clearly favored to defeat Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and convert the commonwealth’s Governorship to the Democrats. Incumbent Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) is ineligible to seek re-election under the only one-term limit law in the country.

The final five Virginia gubernatorial polls conducted during the Oct. 25-31 period (from Atlas Intel, Echelon Insights, Insider Advantage/Trafalgar Group, SoCal Strategies, and State Navigate) give Spanberger leads of between four and 12 points, margins she has maintained for most of the election cycle.

Yet, the early vote numbers tend to suggest an improved GOP standing. All five of the state’s congressional districts where the electorate sends a Republican to the US House have substantially improved their early vote participation rates when compared to 2021.

According to the latest available reports from the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP), the statewide increase in early voting is just under 10 percent. All five Republican House districts, however, are up between 20 and 41.9 percent in early voting participation through Friday.

From the six Democratic districts, only two report increased turnout compared to 2021, and even this pair’s increase is below the statewide average. The other four Democratic congressional districts, at least through Friday’s count, have failed to equal their previous 2021 early voting numbers.

Since Virginia’s early voting numbers are not measured by political party preference, largely because the Old Dominion does not register voters by party, it is difficult to tell if the congressional district breakdowns accurately reflect the partisan composition of 2025 early voting.

The clue, however, that the Republican represented districts are all substantially up in early voting and most of the Democratic seats are down should suggest that Republicans are likely to outperform their polling standing.

Furthermore, it is important to remember that the Republicans won the 2021 election, so Democrats falling behind their losing benchmark numbers from the previous election is another clue that 2025 Virginia voter enthusiasm is higher on the GOP side.

The most likely outcome of tomorrow’s election, however, is a Spanberger victory, a closer Lieutenant Governor’s race, but one that still suggests a slight victory for Democratic nominee Ghazala Hashmi, and a Republican victory for Attorney General Jason Miyares, largely due to the controversy surrounding Democratic nominee Jay Jones.

Surprising Early Voting in Virginia

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025

Early Voting

The statisticians at the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP) have been tracking the available early vote numbers and their excellent reports are finding an unexpected trend.

Through Oct. 24, early voting in Virginia is running ahead of its 2021 statewide pace. In 2021, 1,194,252 people voted before Election Day. Through Oct. 24 of this year, 898,559 have voted, or 75.2 percent of 2021’s early participants. In ‘21, a total of 36.3 percent of Virginia voters cast their ballots before Election Day.

According to VPAP, the 2025 totals are running almost 45% higher than the 2021 early voting pace. At this point in time four years ago, 619,738 individuals had voted 11 days before the election. This means almost half (48%) of the ’21 early voters cast their ballot in the last week prior to Election Day.

The most surprising early trend, however, is that the five Republican congressional districts are outperforming all six Democratic districts in terms of comparing their own 2021 early vote turnout figures to the present numbers.

According to the Oct. 24 VPAP report, District 9 (Rep. Morgan Griffith-R) has already seen more early voters this year (73,655) than it did in all of 2021 (72,503). According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the 9th is the Republicans’ strongest Virginia congressional district (69.7R – 29.1D), meaning the early vote number appears to be good news for the three statewide ballot nominees.

The district with the most early voters so far (125,257) is Rep. Rob Wittman’s (R-Montross) 1st CD. The current raw number represents 98.4 percent of the 1st District’s total 2021 early votes. In the previous Virginia election from four years ago, VA-1 ranked third in early voting participation. The 1st has a partisan lean of 54.1R – 44.1D (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations).

Another related surprising trend is that all five Republican congressional districts have also exceeded the statewide early vote participation benchmark figure of 75.2 percent based upon 2021’s final early vote total. None of the six Democratic congressional electorates have individually reached the 75.2 percent early vote participation percentage this year.

Conversely, Northern Virginia’s early vote turnout, the heartland of Democratic strength in the state, is performing well below its previous pace.

In 2021, the top early voting district in the state was CD-10 (Rep. Subhas Subramanyam-D) with a final early vote total of 139,806 individuals. This year, District 10 ranks 5th in early vote turnout percentage when compared to its previous 2021 final number. The 10th’s 2025 turnout percentage is 59.0 percent based upon the 2021 final performance figure.

The district with the largest drop-off so far when compared to its 2021 performance is the Alexandria/Arlington-anchored 8th CD (Rep. Don Beyer-D). In 2021, the 8th District had the fourth highest early voting raw number participation in the state, but this year it ranks 10th of the 11 Virginia congressional districts. Through Oct. 24, the 8th District has seen only 58.1 percent of its early voting number from 2021 come to the polls. This percentage ranks last in the state.

The best performing early voting northern Virginia district to date is District 11 (Rep. James Walkinshaw-D), yet its 66.1 percent early turnout rate when compared to 2021 performance only ranks 9th in the state, down from sixth.

The biggest position gainers among the 11 congressional districts are VA-5 (Rep. John McGuire-R) and VA-6 (Rep. Ben Cline-R). Both have moved up five slots when compared to their 2021 performances with 94.4 and 88.0 percentages, respectively.

The change in the early voting numbers, which have previously been strong indicators of eventual election outcome, obviously favor the Republicans at this point and suggests the party has an advantage relating to the enthusiasm gap. It is important to remember, however, that almost half of the 2021 early vote came during the period’s last week, which means these preliminary 2025 early vote numbers and trends could still dramatically change.

It is further noteworthy to remember that Republicans won the 2021 election, meaning Democrats must exceed their vote totals and trends from that year. At this point in the voting cycle, it appears the Democrats have a sizable, but not impossibly high, mountain to climb during the last week of early voting and on Election Day itself.

Special Election Season Begins

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 8, 2025

Special Elections

As we know, the House has four vacant seats and the first in a series of rapid special elections will occur tomorrow.

In Virginia’s 11th District, the battle to replace late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) will largely be anticlimactic. The VA-11 seat is heavily Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 67.2D – 30.7R; Harris ’24: 65.7 – 31.4 percent), so an easy win for Fairfax County Supervisor and former Connolly chief of staff James Walkinshaw (D) is a prediction that all political prognosticators share.

The district is fully contained within Fairfax County and includes Fairfax City. A 2:1 Walkinshaw victory is expected over former FBI agent Stewart Whitson (R).

Two weeks after tomorrow’s Virginia special election, on Sept. 23, voters in the Tucson, Arizona area will participate in an election to replace the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D), who died in March. The clear favorite to succeed Grijalva is the special election’s Democratic nominee, Adelita Grijalva, the Congressman’s daughter who is a former Pima County Supervisor. Ms. Grijalva won the special Democratic primary in July with 61.5% of the vote over four intra-party opponents.

As in VA-11, Arizona’s 7th Congressional District is strongly Democratic. The DRA partisan lean is 65.5D – 32.3R. Kamala Harris carried this district, 60.5 – 38.4 percent, in a place where she lost the statewide vote. Just like VA-11, this district’s Democratic nominee is expected to win in a proportion consistent with the partisan lean calculation.

Once Walkinshaw and Ms. Grijalva are sworn into office, the partisan division will feature 219 Republicans, 214 Democrats with two remaining vacancies (1D; 1R).

On Oct. 7 in western Tennessee, we will see perhaps the most interesting special primary election to date, as multiple candidates from both parties are seriously vying for their party’s nomination. On the favored Republican side, 11 contenders are competing including three state Representatives and a Montgomery County Commissioner. For the Democrats, three Nashville area state Representatives and a businessman have qualified for the ballot.

Though the voter history suggests a comfortable Republican win will result in TN-7 (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 55.1R – 42.1D; President Trump: 60.4 – 38.1 percent), Democrats believe they have a chance to pull an upset. They cite increased Democratic performances around the country in special elections as the basis for their political optimism.

Tennessee features partisan special primaries, so no inter-party upset will occur on Oct. 7. The state does not include a runoff for party nominations, so it is likely we will see a pair of nominees coming forward who do not earn majority support within their own partisan electorate. The special general election is scheduled for Dec. 2.

The Volunteer State’s 7th District contains nine counties and parts of three others west of Nashville and stretches from Kentucky to Alabama on a north to south plane. The CD includes part of Nashville city in Davidson County along with the Clarksville, Parsons, and Waynesboro municipalities.

Incumbent Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) resigned the office earlier in the year to accept a position in the private sector. Before Green, Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R), now a gubernatorial candidate, represented the 7th CD for 16 years.

The final special election, scheduled for Nov. 4 in Houston, features 35 candidates (22 Democrats, 7 Republicans, and 6 minor party or Independent contenders). The candidate filing deadline was Sept. 3, so it remains to be seen how many of the 35 officially qualify for the ballot.

The TX-18 contest to replace the late Representative and former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) is certainly the most unique among the special elections.

Assuming a runoff will be required from the large field since no one is likely to secure majority support in the initial vote, Gov. Greg Abbott will then schedule the secondary election between the top two finishers when it becomes a mathematical certainty that no one received a majority. This means the runoff may not be held until early January.

While the new Texas map has been adopted into law, it must still pass the legal tests. If so, the eventual special election winner, and it will almost certainly be a Democratic candidate from the party’s safest Texas seat (DRA partisan lean: 73.6D – 24.4R), will immediately most likely be forced to face veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) to compete in the regular election Democratic primary for a full term.

The regular election Democratic primary will occur in a newly configured 18th District on March 3rd that only contains 26 percent of the current 18th and 65 percent of Rep. Green’s 9th CD.

The new redistricting plan has certainly made life difficult for whoever wins the 18th District special election. The eventual winner having a short tenure in Congress appears likely and will prove a side effect of the 2025 Texas redistricting effort.

NC Sen. Thom Tillis to Retire;
VA-11 Special General Election Set

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 30, 2025

North Carolina

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

In a surprise announcement while tensions were rising over passing the “One Big Beautiful Bill” in the Senate, North Carolina’s two-term incumbent Thom Tillis (R) who had already announced for re-election, abruptly declared over the weekend that he will not run in 2026.

North Carolina was already going to host one of the most competitive races in the country considering its history of often posting close election results. It was also clear that Sen. Tillis was the top incumbent Republican target.

While the state’s perennial competitiveness factor isn’t changing, the candidate list will now be very different than expected. To date, Sen. Tillis was drawing only minor Republican primary opposition, though, that would have changed with President Trump pledging to find a GOP candidate to oppose him, while Democrats are working to attract a big name nominee.

Democrats already have former Rep. Wiley Nickel as an announced candidate. Nickel passed on re-election to a second term in a restructured 13th District seat and instead declared in 2023 that he would run for the Senate. Irrespective of Nickel’s status, the Democratic leadership has been trying to recruit former Gov. Roy Cooper into the Senate race, and we will soon see if the Tillis retirement spurs a decision from the former state chief executive.

In addition to its two Republican Senators, North Carolina has 10 statewide elected offices and both parties each hold five offices. The more prominent state officials, i.e., Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General, are all Democrats, however.

Sen. Tillis’s retirement will change the North Carolina and national political situation for both parties, and this open Senate race will be one of the 2026 election cycle’s key focal points.

VA-11

Local Northern Virginia Democratic and Republican parties hosted their “firehouse primaries” on Saturday that produced special general election candidates to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) who passed away in March.

For the Democrats, who dominate Virginia’s 11th Congressional District, Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (who received the Connolly family’s endorsement and had served for 11 years as Rep. Connolly’s chief of staff) was easily nominated in Saturday’s primary, capturing 60 percent of the vote. State Delegate Irene Shin (D-Herndon) was a distant second with 14.3 percent while state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville) attracted 13.4 percent.

On the Republican side, former FBI agent and Iraq War veteran Stewart Whitson was the plurality “firehouse primary” winner, though GOP turnout, as expected within this overwhelmingly Democratic district, was only a fraction of their political rivals’. According to the Fairfax County local news site, Inside NOVA, 37,624 voters participated in the Democratic firehouse primary as opposed to the Republicans’ 2,601 ballots cast.

The “firehouse primary” is a creation of Virginia politics. In this system, all voters may participate but the polling place locations are very limited, making it more difficult to vote than the usual process of simply going to one’s regular precinct voting site.

Walkinshaw and Whitson now advance to the Sept. 9 special general election that will be held under regular logistics where voters cast their ballots at the precinct polling place. An early voting process will also be offered.

Clearly, in a district with a Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation of 67.2D – 30.7R (Trump ’24: 31.4 percent), Walkinshaw becomes the prohibitive favorite to replace Connolly.

The Virginia election is the first of the four special elections that we will see in the coming months.

The next special nomination contest will occur in Arizona when voters in the Tucson area will select general election candidates to replace the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) who also passed away in March.

The late Congressman’s daughter, former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D) is the clear favorite to win the special Democratic primary on July 15. The special general will be conducted on Sept. 23. As in VA-11, Arizona’s 7th CD is heavily Democratic (DRA partisan lean: 65.5D – 32.3R; (Trump ’24: 38.4 percent).

Houston voters will participate in a jungle primary concurrent with the Texas municipal elections on Nov. 4 to begin to select a replacement for the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston), the third member to pass away in March.

In that election, voters will choose from a large developing field including candidates from all parties and those running as Independents. If no one receives majority support in the initial election, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will then schedule a special runoff vote. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean in this district is also overwhelmingly Democratic, 73.6D – 24.4R (Trump ’24: 29.4 percent), making TX-18 the Lone Star State’s second-safest Democratic seat.

The fourth special election will occur at some point in Tennessee. Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) said he will resign from the House after the President’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” in fully enacted. Once the resignation is official, Gov. Bill Lee (R) will then schedule the replacement special election.

Unlike the other three vacant, or soon-to-be vacant, seats, TN-7 is safely Republican. The partisan lean in this western Tennessee district is 55.1R – 42.1D (Trump ’24: 60.4 percent).

2025 Governors’ Races

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 16, 2025

Governor

Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) / Photo: World Economic Forum, Benedikt von Loebell

Many believe the results from two states holding Governors races later this year could be a harbinger for the 2026 midterm elections.

We know more about Tuesday’s New Jersey primary election: Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) won the crowded Democratic primary with 34 percent of the vote over five opponents with an increased party turnout factor of a whopping 65 percent when compared with the last contested Democratic gubernatorial primary, which occurred in 2017. Total 2025 Democratic primary turnout is expected to reach 831,000 individuals when all votes are officially tabulated.

For the Republicans, 2021 gubernatorial Jack Ciattarelli looks like he will reach or break the 68 percent voter preference mark once the official final results are released. GOP turnout was up sharply from their ’21 contested campaign. While not as robust as the Democratic increase, Republican participation was up a credible 39 percent, meaning a projected final turnout figure of just over 471,000 individuals.

It was interesting that we did not see a publicly released New Jersey gubernatorial poll through the entire month before the election. The early polls that we did see, at least on the Democratic side, proved accurate. All 20 publicly released surveys for the entire two-year election cycle projected Rep. Sherrill as either a close or definitive leader, a prediction that came true.

For the Republicans, pollsters also correctly predicted a Ciattarelli win but, as we’ve seen in races across the country, the GOP strength is often under-polled. In the seven publicly released Republican gubernatorial polls, Ciattarelli, while forecast as the leader in all, averaged only 43 percent preference. Yet, it appears he will reach a 68 percent total when all of the votes are officially tabulated.

In the 2021 race, polling again came within the margin of error for Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy as his average from the 18 publicly released general election research studies was 49.2 percent. The final vote yielded the Governor a 51.2 percent support factor. Again, the pollsters cumulatively underestimated Ciattarelli’s support. While his average from these same 18 polls was 38.8 percent, he finished with an actual total of 48.0 percent.

The 2024 New Jersey presidential polling, though we saw only two publicly released October Trump-Harris polls because the state was not in the battleground category, also predicted a much greater Kamala Harris victory margin than actually occurred. In the two-poll average, Harris recorded 53.5 percent preference while Donald Trump fell to 37.5 percent. The actual vote found the Democratic presidential nominee carrying the state with a 52.0 – 46.1 percent final count. Again, the pollsters were very close on the Democratic number but severely under-projected Republican support.

Therefore, it is probable that we will see a continuance of this prognostication pattern, meaning the Democratic nominee, Rep. Sherrill, will likely be accurately polled and Ciattarelli’s support will be under-counted.

The New Jersey Governors’ vote history is a bit different from the federal races where Democrats have dominated. Since the 1949 election when the state first moved to permanent odd-year elections, Democrats have elected seven Governors, but Republicans proved capable of pushing five individuals over the political finish line.

Therefore, a Republican winning the New Jersey Governorship is not an unheard of proposition. While GOP candidates have fared poorly in northeast and mid-Atlantic federal races during the 21st Century, Republican gubernatorial nominees have performed much better, winning state chief executive campaigns in places such as Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and New Jersey.

On Tuesday, Virginia voters will go to the polls to select their nominees for the November election. Here, the primary elections will not be competitive because the nominations are set. Both Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) are unopposed in their respective primaries.

In this situation, Spanberger has the advantage. Despite Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R) victory in 2021, Virginia is clearly trending Democratic, and with the Trump Administration having the goal of pruning federal employees, Northern Virginia turnout — the Democratic bastion — is expected to be extremely high.

Additionally, Spanberger has been dominant in fundraising throughout the early going. It is to be noted, however, that the Lieutenant Governor could not raise any funds while the legislature is in session because of her role as President of the state Senate. Even so, the financial imbalance is substantial.

To date, Spanberger has raised $19.1 million as compared to Earle-Sears’ $9.1 million. The cash-on-hand edge is even more advantageous for the Democrat. In this category, the Spanberger campaign holds $14.3 million while the Earle-Sears effort, after spending some of their money on early television advertising, maintains just $2.9 million in the candidate’s account.

At this point, Democrats are favored to win Governorships in both New Jersey and Virginia. It remains to be seen if their advantages hold, or whether Republicans can engineer a strong kick in the final turn.