Tag Archives: Texas

Again, Cornyn Trails

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 5, 2025

Senate

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R)

The Houston Chronicle has published a story about a new poll that Trump 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale released to an HC reporter about the upcoming Texas Senate Republican primary.

The ballot test again shows incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) badly trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is an announced primary competitor. Parscale was a consultant for Paxton’s 2022 successful re-election campaign.

The survey release includes sketchy methodological information, however. The firm conducting the poll is not identified and the sampling period is listed as only “mid-April.” The respondent universe consists of 605 “voters.” It is also unclear whether the respondents were questioned through live interview, an interactive voice response system, text, or online website.

In any event, the ballot test finds Paxton leading Sen. Cornyn, 50-33 percent. Even if President Trump were to endorse Sen. Cornyn, the incumbent still does not forge ahead, though this poll shows he would close to within a 44-38 percent deficit. While the spreads seem head scratching, they are in relative concurrence with other released polls of the race, even one conducted as far back as 2022.

In early March, Lake Research Associates, a Democratic firm, polled the Texas Republican electorate and found Paxton topping Cornyn, 38-27 percent. In early February, the Fabrizio Lee & Associates firm released their results that are similar to the Parscale poll’s current figures, 53-28 percent. Victory Insights January poll found a 42-34 percent Paxton lead. The 2022 reference was from a CWS Research survey taken in early July of that year. The then-hypothetical Cornyn-Paxton ballot test yielded a 51-31 percent advantage for Paxton.

The obvious common theme is that Sen. Cornyn trails in every publicly released survey over a long period. The polling, however, is not the full story.

A non-profit organization, Standing for Texas, is running ads in the major media markets with the exception of Rep. Wesley Hunt’s (R) hometown of Houston, positively profiling the Congressman and clearly laying the groundwork for a statewide run. Curiously, however, the latest polls do not include Rep. Hunt as a Senate candidate, even though signs are clear that he intends to enter the contest. The addition of Rep. Hunt, and/or other candidates, could certainly change the campaign trajectory.

Sen. Cornyn’s problem is that large numbers within the Texas GOP base believe him to be a RINO (Republican In Name Only) because he has strayed from the typical party position on several issues. A fair characterization or not, it is clear that Sen. Cornyn will have to neutralize this image in order to forge a winning coalition.

Paxton, however, is a flawed candidate. He was impeached in the Republican state House of Representatives in 2023 but not convicted in a trial before the state Senate. Yet, the proceeding brought to the forefront bribery accusations and the acknowledgment of an extra-marital affair. Therefore, Paxton would be an easy target for the eventual Democratic nominee in a general election.

Another Paxton problem could be fundraising. A great deal of his state campaign resources come from large donations, which are legal under Texas election law. Raising money for a statewide race in the nation’s second largest domain in increments not to exceed $3,500 for the nomination election means Paxton will have a harder time raising the funds necessary to run a strong primary campaign.

Both Sen. Cornyn and Rep. Hunt have obviously raised sizable amounts under the federal guidelines. The current Federal Election Commission disclosure reports find Sen. Cornyn holding almost $5.6 million in his campaign account, while Rep. Hunt has over $2.8 million. Paxton did not file a first quarter report because he was not yet an official candidate.

On the Democratic side, no major candidate has yet come forth but 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred, now a former Congressman, confirms he is considering returning for a 2026 campaign. Former Congressman and failed presidential, US Senate, and gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke says he is not “closing the door” on entering the Senate race. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) is another possibility as is astronaut Terry Verts.

It appears we will see a great deal of early action from candidates in both parties for the Texas Senate race. The party primaries are scheduled for March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate secures majority support. Regardless of the outcome of each nomination contest, we can expect the Texas Senate campaign cycle to yield a tough and close months-long campaign.

House Overview – Part IV

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 28, 2025

House

Part IV concludes our House Overview analysis. Today’s edition covers districts in Ohio through Wisconsin. If a state is not listed, it means there are no major developments currently affecting the sitting incumbents.

Ohio

OH-9 — Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) was originally elected to Congress in 1982 and ranks as the fourth-most senior member of the House. In a western Ohio Toledo-anchored 9th District that no longer stretches to Cleveland to provide more Democrats, Kaptur has had two recent competitive elections, and particularly so in 2024.

The veteran Congresswoman was re-elected with just a 48.3 – 47.6 percent victory margin over then-state Representative Derek Merrin. It remains to be seen if Merrin returns for a re-match, but the Republicans are again guaranteed to field a strong candidate.

The wild card for Ohio congressional races is the impending redistricting. The state has one of the most complicated redistricting systems involving a legislative commission, a vote in the full legislature, and a statute that allows the districts to stand for only a four-year period if a vote of less than three-fifths of the legislature votes to adopt. That happened in 2021, so the congressional lines are supposed to be redrawn before the 2026 election. The new map will definitely have a major effect upon the 9th District race.

OH-13 — The redistricting situation could be definitive for Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) as she runs for a third term. In November, the Congresswoman recorded only a 51-49 percent victory margin over former state legislator Kevin Coughlin (R). The 2026 race will again be competitive since Coughlin has already announced he will return for a re-match.

Pennsylvania

PA-7 — Freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie) unseated three-term Rep. Susan Wild (D) in November with a one-point margin. The former Congresswoman says she will not return in 2026 but has an unnamed candidate that she wants to support. Northampton County Executive Lamon McClure (D) is an announced candidate but raised only $140,000 in the first quarter. Therefore, McClure is not likely Wild’s mystery candidate.

Regardless of who the Democrats ultimately nominate, this will be a hotly contested race that will go a long way toward determining the next House majority.

PA-8 — Freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township) unseated six-term Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) in November with a 51-49 percent vote margin. Cartwright confirms he is considering returning for a re-match. Until he makes a decision, the rest of a potential Democratic candidate field is figuratively frozen. This district will again host a tight contest, so expect a major campaign to again unfold in this Scranton-anchored CD irrespective of whom the Democrats nominate to challenge Rep. Bresnahan.

South Carolina

SC-1 — Three-term Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) is seriously considering a run for Governor, meaning the coastal 1st Congressional District could be open in 2026. Should Rep. Mace run for re-election instead of statewide, she will be safe in a general election battle. With the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculating a 55.6R – 42.3D partisan lean, the GOP will be in strong position to hold the seat with another candidate. Likely the area politics will be in a state of suspension until Rep. Mace makes a final decision about running for Governor.

SC-5 — As with Rep. Mace in South Carolina’s 1st CD, five-term 5th District Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) is also considering entering the state’s open Governor’s race. In a recent quote, Norman indicated he is “about 65 percent sure” that he will run statewide.

The 5th CD is also solidly Republican (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 58.4R – 39.8D), so winning the GOP primary is tantamount to election. Here, too, a presumed congressional candidate field is frozen until Rep. Norman makes a final decision about his potential statewide bid. If both the 1st and 5th Districts are open, we can expect crowded and highly competitive Republican primaries in each location.

South Dakota

SD-AL — The South Dakota congressional situation is another where a Governor’s race is playing a major role as to the outcome of an eventual campaign for the US House. Four-term at-large Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) is contemplating a run for Governor, but the new incumbent, Larry Rhoden who ascended to the state’s top job when then-Gov. Kristi Noem (R) was appointed Homeland Security Secretary, has not yet indicated whether he will run for a full term.

Most politicos, however, believe Rep. Johnson will jump into the Governor’s race irrespective of Gov. Rhoden’s plans. His 1st Quarter fundraising certainly suggests such. Johnson raised just under $800,000 for the three-month period but maintains almost $6 million in his campaign account. Therefore, Rep. Johnson already has the necessary resources to fully compete in a statewide race.

Should the Congressman run for Governor, as in several other states, we will see a crowded open-seat Republican primary form with the eventual winner punching his ticket to Washington, DC.

Tennessee

TN-6 — The middle Tennessee 6th Congressional District situation is similar to those described in South Carolina and South Dakota. Here, Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) has already announced his candidacy in the open Governor’s race, a move that many believe will be a political suicide run against Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R), who appears set on running to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Bill Lee.

With Rep. Rose in the Governor’s race, we see talk about others running for Congress but, so far, no real action. A crowded Republican primary is expected, which may feature former Congressman Van Hilleary, who has been serving as Rep. Rose’s chief of staff, state House Speaker Cameron Sexton (R-Crossville), and as many as two state Senators and two other state Representatives. A crowded field will form and the eventual Republican nominee will succeed Rose as the new member.

Texas

TX-18 — The death of freshman Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) has led to a special election being called concurrently with the state’s municipal elections scheduled for Nov. 3. If no candidate receives majority support in the initial vote, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) then will schedule a secondary election for the top two finishers. Such a runoff, which is likely and could well feature two Democrats, would probably be scheduled for Dec. 16.

Fifteen Democrats, three Republicans, and four Independents have already announced their candidacies. At this point, the top two candidates appear to be Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-Senate and House candidate Amanda Edwards (D). With a partisan lean rating of 73.6D – 24.4R (Dave’s Redistricting App), the Democrats are a lock to keep this seat.

TX-28 — Twenty-year incumbent Congressman Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) has won his past two elections from this South Texas congressional district with a federal bribery indictment hanging over his head. In November, he defeated retired Navy officer Jay Furman (R), who moved to the state just to challenge Cuellar.

It is likely the Congressman will face stiffer competition in 2026. Former 34th District Congresswoman Mayra Flores (R) has announced her candidacy. Before that, Republican leaders were looking to recruit Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina. It remains to be seen just who Rep. Cuellar will face, but we can expect a highly competitive 2026 contest in this heavily Hispanic (72.9 percent of the CD Voting Age Population) Texas district.

TX-38 — Two-term Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) holds a safe Republican seat wholly within Harris County, but he may be moving into a statewide race. There is no question Rep. Hunt is testing the political waters for a Republican primary challenge to Sen. John Cornyn (R) and should he enter the race that also includes Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), we can expect a very crowded Republican primary field vying to replace the Congressman.

Hunt has averaged 63 percent of the vote in his two 38th District elections. President Donald Trump carried the seat by 21 percentage points. Therefore, if Rep. Hunt runs for the Senate, the open 38th would then again be decided in the Republican primary.

Wisconsin

WI-1 & 3 — The major question that must be answered before beginning to analyze the Wisconsin congressional races is will there be a mid-decade congressional redistricting? If the state Supreme Court decides to redraw the boundaries in response to a lawsuit, then 1st District Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and fellow 3rd District Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) will be in serious political trouble. If the map remains constant, then Rep. Steil would be a clear favorite for re-election, while Rep. Van Orden would again face a competitive opponent.

In November, Steil, running for his fourth term, defeated Democratic former Congressman Peter Barca by 10 percentage points, 54-44 percent in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians project a partisan lean of 49.4R – 48.3D. President Trump carried the seat 51.5 – 47.0 percent.

Rep. Van Orden’s 3rd District lies in Wisconsin’s western sector anchored in the city of La Crosse. The Congressman won a second term with a 51-49 percent margin over businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D).

Though Cooke is returning for a re-match, she faces significant Democratic primary competition in the persons of Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge (D), and former Eau Claire City Councilmember Laura Benjamin (D). Even in the present district configuration, Rep. Van Orden can count on again being forced to wage a major re-election campaign.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court forced a redraw of the state Assembly and Senate districts in 2023 on partisan gerrymandering grounds but left the congressional map intact. It remains to be seen what decision the new state Supreme Court will soon render for the 2024 elections.

Paxton Enters Senate Race in Texas; Nickel Does Same in North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 11, 2025

Texas

Ken Paxton / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton announced earlier this week, on Fox News’ Monday night’s Ingraham Angle, that he will challenge Sen. John Cornyn in next year’s Republican primary.

The move had been expected, but the wild card in the race appears to be US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). The Congressman is reportedly going to disclose raising $1.5 million in first quarter 2025 on his Federal Election Commission filing that is due April 15.

A Super PAC has spent seven figures on positive biography ads about Rep. Hunt throughout the state except for his hometown of Houston. All of this suggests he is planning to enter the Senate race, thus forcing a three-way major candidate contest.

The Cornyn campaign quickly responded to the Paxton announcement on social media saying, “Ken Paxton is a fraud. He talks tough on crime and then lets crooked progressive Lina Hidalgo off the hook. He says his impeachment trial was a sham but he didn’t contest the facts in legal filings, which will cost the state millions. He says he’s anti-woke but he funnels millions of taxpayer dollars to lawyers who celebrate DEI. And Ken claims to be a man of faith but uses fake Uber accounts to meet his girlfriend and deceive his family.”

Paxton attacks Sen. Cornyn as not being a strong supporter of President Donald Trump, and retaliated in his Fox News interview saying, “it’s time that we have another great Senator that will actually stand up and fight for Republican values, fight for the values of the people of Texas and also support Donald Trump in the areas that he’s focused on in a very significant way.”

Interestingly, should Hunt enter the race, he could indirectly help Cornyn. Since he and Paxton would likely draw from the same conservative rural constituencies that represent the heart of Texas’ Trump Country, a large portion of the anti-Cornyn vote would be split. Sen. Cornyn does well in the metro areas during the GOP primaries, so opponents dividing the anti-incumbent vote would at least guarantee him a runoff position.

The Texas primary will likely be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff election targeted for May 26 if no candidate receives majority support.

North Carolina

Former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D)

There was also action in the North Carolina Senate campaign. Former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D), who did not seek re-election in November because of an adverse 2023 redistricting plan, announced that he will run for the Senate.

This is an interesting move because Nickel originally said that he would only run if former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) decided not to mount a Senate campaign. Cooper is finishing a fellowship at Harvard University and said he would make a decision about the Senate race when he completes the program.

When asked about Cooper potentially entering the Senate contest, Nickel now says he will “cross that bridge when I come to it.” Initially, he said he would step aside if Cooper decided to become a candidate. In reality, the former one-term Raleigh area Congressman may have inside information that the former Governor will not run for the Senate, hence his decision to announce his own campaign earlier than originally planned.

The developments could also be a signal that Cooper may be looking more seriously at the presidential race. If so, he would be unlikely to run for Senate in 2026 if he is planning to launch a national campaign in the 2028 open presidential cycle.

In any event, the eventual Democratic Senate nominee will challenge two-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R) in what will again be a highly competitive 2026 general election. The North Carolina race promises to be one of the top national US Senate campaigns of the current election cycle.

A Questionable Texas Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Senate

Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

A new Texas statewide poll shows Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in a hypothetical Senate Republican primary, but the survey contains several flaws.

Lake Research and Slingshot Strategies partnered on a poll for the Texas Public Opinion Research organization (reported only as March 2025; 700 registered Texas voters) and though the study was designed predominantly to test issues and attitudes, the ballot test between Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton, showing the incumbent trailing the challenger 38-27 percent before a Republican vote segment, cannot be considered reliable.

First, there is no indication as to how many people were surveyed as “Republican primary voters” because there is no number disclosure of self-identified Republicans. Using the percentages answering the partisan identification question means the segment cell could possibly only contain a maximum of 315 respondents, which would be very low for a statewide survey in a place the size of Texas.

Secondly, the pollsters did not test the entire proposed GOP field. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) was not included on the ballot question even though he has been firmer in statements about running for the Senate than has Paxton.

Third, the data gathering period was not identified, nor was the data collection method, the latter meaning live interview, Interactive Voice Response system, text, or online. Without this information, it is difficult to detect a proper error factor.

Fourth, a four-term Senate incumbent attracting only 28 percent within his own party on a ballot test is hard to believe, and likely wholly understated, though the Paxton support figure of 38 percent could be about right.

Fifth, the pollsters exhibited a somewhat liberal bias with regard to the types of questions asked and the descriptive language used, especially when describing the abortion question. The query asked respondents if they identify as pro-choice or anti-choice. Certainly, the anti-choice option would receive less support than if described as pro-life.

The favorability index question responses were also curious especially relating to Sen. Cornyn. In fact, of the 11 individuals and institutions queried for a favorable or unfavorable rating, Sen. Cornyn finished dead last (21:43 percent). Again, it is difficult to find credible that a scandal-free elected official who has won six statewide elections (four for US Senate; one for state Attorney General; one for Texas Supreme Court) would perform so badly.

Of all 11 people tested, former Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred, the only Democratic politician on the list, finished with the strongest favorability rating, 37:30 percent positive to negative. Allred is the only tested individual or institution to finish with a positive rating even though he lost the Senate race this past November to GOP incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz by almost nine percentage points.

In contrast, both President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance are three points down (Trump: 47:50 percent; Vance: 44:47 percent), yet the Trump-Vance ticket carried the state by almost 14 percentage points.

For his part, AG Paxton scored a 35:40 percent index, which is not particularly bad considering he came within a few state Senate votes of being removed from office in 2023. Again, an argument can be made against the Lake/Slingshot reliability factor when seeing an elected official who was almost removed from office largely by members of his own party (at least in the State House of Representatives) enjoying a better standing within the electorate than a sitting incumbent with no personal scandal who has been elected six times to statewide office.

It will be interesting to see if Paxton ultimately decides to run. While his performance in this Lake/Slingshot poll is stronger than Sen. Cornyn’s, which would encourage him, fundraising under the federal election system will not.

Gone would be the days when a contender could call selected donors and receive major contributions sometimes totaling seven figures as he or she can under Texas election law. Running for Senate, Paxton will have to fund raise in small increments: $3,500 per election, or a grand total of $10,500, if someone wanted to fully support him in the Republican primary, the Republican runoff (if necessary), and the general election.

While certain individuals might contribute large dollars to a Super PAC supporting Paxton or opposing Cornyn, they would have no control over how the money is spent. Furthermore, contributing to an incumbent, as many big donors did for Paxton when he was AG, is much different than contributing major dollars against an incumbent, especially one that many of these same prospective donors have also supported in past campaigns.

Considering Texas will hold its primaries on March 3, 2026, this election campaign will soon be swinging into high gear.

Special Elections Preview

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 20, 2025

House

The deaths of Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) and Sylvester Turner (D-TX) necessitate special elections being called to fill the balance of their current terms. Candidates are starting to present themselves in each of these situations, and one of the specials now has an official election calendar.

The two impending special congressional elections occurring on April 1 are both in Florida. State Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis (R) is the prohibitive favorite to win the open 1st District and succeed resigned Congressman Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/ Pensacola). State Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) is primed to win the state’s open 6th CD. That position is vacant because previous incumbent Rep. Mike Waltz (R) resigned to become President Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor.

Once these elections are complete, the House will move to a 220R – 213D partisan division. The Grijalva and Turner vacancies account for the final two House seats.

AZ-7

The late Arizona Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson)

Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Grijalva. The party primaries in accordance with the Arizona statutes governing the filling of a congressional vacancy will be held on July 15, with the special general election calendared on Sept. 23. The candidate filing deadline is April 14.

Therefore, the 7th District will remain vacant until late September when a new member will be chosen. The late Congressman’s daughter, Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, will likely be one of the top contenders. Grijalva said she will make a final decision about running after her father’s funeral on March 26.

Tucson Mayor Regina Romero (D), who would be a major contender, has already said that she will not enter the special congressional election. Former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez (D), who is expected to become a candidate, has so far been non-committal when asked to make a public statement about his political intentions. Hernandez’s sisters, however, state Rep. Alma Hernandez (D-Tucson) and state Rep. Consuelo Hernandez (D-Pima County) both say they will not run for Congress.

The Pima County-anchored CD is safely Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+27. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 65.5D – 32.3R partisan lean. The Down Ballot political blog prognosticators rank AZ-7 as the 89th safest seat in the House Democratic Conference.

Expect further candidate announcements to come after Rep. Grijalva is laid to rest.

TX-18

The late Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston)

Though the special election in Texas to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) has not yet been scheduled, candidates are beginning to come forward.

Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) – not to be confused with Harris County District Attorney Sean Teare – resigned his position and announced that he will enter the special election. Significantly, he does so with the endorsement of Erica Carter, the late-Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee’s (D) daughter. Carter represented the constituency after her mother died and before Turner’s term began, and some speculated that she might enter the special election battle.

Former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-US Senate and House candidate Amanda Edwards (D) is also poised to announce her candidacy and may do so as early as today. Community Relations consultant and former Houston City Council candidate James Joseph (D) and former congressional aide Isaiah Martin (D) are also announced contenders.

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule the special election at some point but has no legal time requirement under Texas election law to do so. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-18 as D+43, so there is little doubt that a Democrat will hold the seat. There is a good possibility we will see a double-Democratic runoff in the eventual special runoff election. A secondary election will be scheduled if no candidate receives majority support in the first vote.

The Hot Senate Cycle

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 19, 2025

Senate

Examining developing political events, we are already seeing the prelude to what might become the most competitive US Senate campaign cycle in decades.

Since Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) declared in late January that he will not seek re-election, three other Senators announced that they will also retire at the end of the current term. Depending upon the candidates each party fields, all of these newly open races have the potential of becoming expensive toss-up campaigns.

As we know, the other open seats are found in Kentucky (Sen. Mitch McConnell-R), Minnesota (Sen. Tina Smith-D), and New Hampshire (Sen. Jeanne Shaheen-D). Should the Kentucky Democrats convince Gov. Andy Beshear to run and likewise the New Hampshire Republicans recruit former Gov. Chris Sununu, these two states would certainly host major toss-up campaigns. Absent Beshear and Sununu running, each party would be favored to hold their respective seat.

Democrats expect to have the advantage in Minnesota, but it is unclear at this early point who their party will nominate. With Gov. Tim Walz (D) not running for Senate, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen have announced their candidacies, while Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is listed as a possible contender. If Republicans can recruit a credible nominee, this open seat could transform into a competitive battle.

Perhaps the Republicans’ most vulnerable incumbent is North Carolina’s Thom Tillis; Democrats are trying to convince former Gov. Roy Cooper to enter that state’s Senate race. Like many others, Cooper is said to have presidential ambitions that could forestall a Senate challenge.

National Democrats would also like to see Maine US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), but this is unlikely to happen. Golden is a former Collins staff member, and if he does run statewide it is more likely he will enter the open Governor’s race.

Two other Republican Governors are being recruited to run for the Senate, but it is unclear at this point if either will declare a bid. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin would pair with Sens. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and Mark Warner (D-VA), but there is no guarantee that either will make the move. Both have presidential aspirations and may not want to test their prospects for a national campaign in a Senate race where they stand a reasonable chance of losing.

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R), reversing himself from his earlier statements and now saying he may well enter his state’s open Governor’s race, means we could see a very crowded, but determinative nominating campaign to succeed the Senator as the Republican nominee. Such an individual would then become a heavy favorite to win the general election, but the nominating process would be highly competitive.

Alaska Democrats would like to recruit former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) to challenge Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), but the lure of an open Governor’s race will likely be more tempting for Peltola.

Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall (R) stands for a second term next year, and the Democrats’ best potential candidate for this race is term-limited Governor Laura Kelly who cannot succeed herself. Kelly or Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park) would be the Democrats’ best options for the Senate, but at this point there is little indication that either plan to run.

Expect, however, that Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) will make a strong push to convince one of those two to enter the Jayhawk State Senate race.

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) is likely to also experience a competitive re-election race but not for the general election. With his state returning to a partisan primary system, Sen. Cassidy, for the first time, will have to face a strong Republican challenger before only Republican voters. One such individual, State Treasurer and former Rep. John Fleming (R), is already campaigning and leading in a late February poll (JMC Analytics; Feb. 26-28; 600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; Fleming 40 – Cassidy 27 percent).

Should Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) stumble in the early 2026 Republican primary, Democrats would have a chance of putting Texas in play particularly if flawed Attorney General Ken Paxton becomes the Republican nominee. National Democrats would like to see 2024 Senate nominee and former Congressman Colin Allred run again.

Additionally, two appointed Senators, Florida’s Ashley Moody (R) and Jon Husted of Ohio (R) must run in special elections to fill the balance of the current terms and both will be expensive campaigns in large states.

If all of the most prominent potential candidates were to run in these 15 potentially competitive states, we would see a very volatile set of US Senate campaigns.

Chances are, however, the list of eventual nominees from both parties will be a bit more mundane than in the aforementioned outlined scenarios. Several of these big-name potential Senate contenders may be more inclined, like former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg who just bowed out of the Michigan race, to follow the presidential winds.

Cooper’s Challenge; Texas Senate Battle; Democrat’s Election Battle; PA-8, WA-4 House News; Governor Races Maneuvering

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2025

Senate

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (R)

North Carolina — Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who would be the national Democrats’ first choice to challenge Sen. Thom Tillis (R), said this week that he will make a decision about running “in the next few months.” Cooper is also apparently testing the waters for a presidential run in the open 2028 election. Former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D), who did not seek re-election to a second term in 2024 because of an adverse redistricting map, has already declared his intention to challenge Sen. Tillis.

Texas — A new Victory Insights poll of the Texas Republican electorate (Jan. 4-6; number of respondents not released; interactive voice response system and text) finds Sen. John Cornyn (R) trailing state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in an early 2026 Republican primary pairing. It has long been rumored that Paxton is going to launch a primary challenge to Sen. Cornyn, a move that Paxton does not deny.

According to the ballot test, Paxton would lead the Senator 42-34 percent, which is a very low support performance for any long-time incumbent. AG Paxton does best with the conservative base, leading Cornyn 55-23 percent among the self-described MAGA segment, and 50-24 percent from the group that describes themselves as constitutional conservatives. Sen. Cornyn rebounds to a 50-15 percent spread among traditional Republicans, and 59-18 percent within the self-described moderate Republican segment. Clearly, this early data suggests the 2026 Texas Republican primary will attract a great deal of coming national political attention.

DSCC — New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has officially been chosen to head the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for the 2026 election cycle. She replaces Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) who cannot succeed himself since he is in-cycle for the coming campaign. Sen. Gillibrand will be tasked with quarterbacking the Democrats’ efforts to reclaim the majority they lost in 2024.

While the map forces the Republicans to risk what will be 22 seats in the 35 Senate races, which includes two special elections, the odds of Democrats re-electing all 13 of their in-cycle Senators and converting four GOP seats to reach a 51-seat Democratic majority appear long.

House

PA-8 — Former Pennsylvania Rep. Matt Cartwright (D), who just lost his Scranton-anchored congressional seat to freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township), indicated that he is considering returning in 2026 to seek a re-match. Bresnahan unseated then-Rep. Cartwright with a 50.8 – 49.2 percent majority, a margin of 4,062 votes of 403,314 cast ballots. Cartwright said he will make a decision about running in the next few months.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates PA-8 as R+8, so the Bresnahan victory was not a huge upset considering the region’s voter history and that Cartwright’s last two election victories in 2020 and 2022 were close.

WA-4 — Ex-congressional candidate Jerrod Sessler (R) says he will return to challenge Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) for a third time in 2026. Despite placing first in the 2024 jungle primary, Sessler lost to the Congressman by a 52-46 percent margin even with President-Elect Donald Trump’s endorsement. Rep. Newhouse is one of two remaining House Republicans who voted for the second Trump impeachment.

In 2022, Sessler failed to qualify for the general election, placing fourth in a field of eight candidates with 12.3 percent of the vote. Beginning an early 2026 campaign, Congressman Newhouse will again be favored to win re-election.

Governor

New Jersey — In a 2025 gubernatorial campaign that is already featuring a very competitive Democratic primary to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D), a new election date has been scheduled. Due to a conflict with a Jewish holiday, Gov. Murphy announced he was moving the state primary from June 3, 2025, to June 10.

Already in the Democratic race are two current Representatives, Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) and Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), and three Mayors, Sean Spiller (Montclair), Ras Baraka (Newark), and Steve Fulop (Jersey City), along with former state Senate President Steve Sweeney. For the Republicans, 2021 gubernatorial nominee and ex-state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, state Sen. Jon Bramnick (D-Plainfield), and radio talk show host Bill Spadea are the major candidates.

Ohio — This week, Dr. Amy Acton (D), who became a regular media figure in 2020 as Ohio’s Covid chief, announced that she will run to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike DeWine (R). Competitive primaries are expected in both parties with the eventual GOP nominee becoming the favorite for the general election considering Ohio’s recent voting history.

Gov. DeWine’s choice to replace Sen. J.D. Vance (R) when he resigns to become Vice President could affect the Republican gubernatorial lineup. Expect a great deal of action in the Governor’s race once the Senate pick is announced.