Tag Archives: Texas

Redistricting Becoming Clearer

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025

Redistricting

Putting together the redistricting puzzle

The redistricting wars may be coming to a head. Recent action has occurred in several states providing a better national redistricting picture in preparation for the 2026 election.

Below is a synopsis of the latest developments:

California: After a majority of California voters approved the special election redistricting referendum, a racial gerrymandering lawsuit was filed against the state’s new map.

Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court issued a stay on the Texas racial gerrymandering lawsuit, with a rebuke from Justice Samuel Alito to the three-judge panel in El Paso for rendering a decision before the high court ruled on a related Louisiana racial gerrymandering case. Thus, it became clear that all other cases would be held until the high court issues what could be a landmark ruling.

The judicial action likely means the new California map will be in place for the 2026 election. The original map proponents believe the plan will return five more seats for the Democrats, reducing the Republicans to just four of 52 Golden State districts.

Florida: Late last week, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said that the state will redistrict the congressional map and do so during the Spring. The Florida primary is not scheduled until Aug. 18, so time remains to complete the redistricting process. It is possible that Republicans could gain two seats from a new map.

Georgia: A new Georgia map has been completed. The legislature made minor changes to the existing plan that will not likely affect the current partisan division (9R-5D).

Indiana: Late last week, the Indiana state Senate defeated a redistricting map that the state House passed. The plan would have converted two Democratic seats to Republican, thus sweeping the nine-member delegation. Unless the Senate reconsiders the action, the current 7R-2D map will remain intact for the 2026 election.

Louisiana: The US Supreme Court is considering the Callais racial gerrymandering case that could become the vehicle for the justices to render a landmark racial gerrymandering decision. A ruling was expected in June, but the justices postponed their opinion and ordered a second round of oral arguments. The subsequent hearing was held Oct. 15, and all await a final determination.

If the court upholds the lower court decision, the current Louisiana map will be invalidated, meaning the Republicans will likely gain one seat. Should this be the Supreme Court’s ultimate decision, then the possibility exists that the Alabama map will also be redrawn because its plan is virtually identical to Louisiana’s.

Maryland: In a situation similar to what is found in Indiana, most of the Maryland Democratic political establishment favors attempting to collapse their one Republican congressional district, but the state Senate leadership refuses to take action. Therefore, unless the Senate President completely reverses himself, a new redistricting map will not be enacted.

Missouri: The Missouri legislature and Governor have enacted a new map that will likely convert the Kansas City anchored 5th CD from Democratic to Republican. Opponents of the map, officially organized under a group name entitled People Not Politicians, have collected double the number of signatures needed to force a special election initiative vote with the goal of repealing the new map. If a ruling is made qualifying the initiative for the ballot, voters will then decide if the new map will stand.

Under Missouri procedure, simply qualifying the initiative will suspend the new map. This means the state would be forced to revert to the 2021 map for the 2026 election. An initiative vote would occur in the regular election cycle. If the voters adopt the new plan, it would take effect in the 2028 election cycle.

North Carolina: The legislature’s new congressional map will almost assuredly stand for the 2026 election. The initial complaint protesting the plan was rejected at the lower court level. The US Supreme Court’s action involving the Texas case suggests that no further judicial movement will occur on the new North Carolina plan before the candidate filing deadline on Dec. 19. Therefore, it is likely that Republicans will gain one seat in the Tar Heel delegation.

Ohio: The bipartisan elected official redistricting commission unanimously agreed upon a new congressional map, one that state law mandated be drawn. Under the Ohio procedure, a unanimous decision from the redistricting panel, which included Gov. Mike DeWine (R), means the map is officially enacted without action from the state legislature. The new plan will likely produce a one seat gain for Republicans in western Ohio, with the outside possibility of a second conversion in Cincinnati.

Texas: As discussed above, the Supreme Court stayed the three-judge panel decision that ruled the new map a racial gerrymander. Candidate filing has concluded, so the new 2025 map will be in place for the 2026 elections. The original map proponents believe the plan will return five more seats for the Republicans.

Utah: A state court ruled that the legislature ignored certain criteria that voters adopted in a previous redistricting initiative. Therefore, the 2021 map was declared invalid, a ruling that the state Supreme Court sustained. The court then adopted a new map that created a Salt Lake City Democratic seat. The new plan will produce a 3R-1D map for the 2026 election, which is a gain of one Democratic seat.

Virginia: The Old Dominion redistricting effort may determine which party wins the national redistricting wars. With the Democrats gaining full control of the state government, the new legislature must pass a referendum for the ballot when they convene in January. The measure will have to fulfill other legal requirements, and a special statewide referendum election is required. Voters would have to approve a new map before the April 2 candidate filing deadline for the June 16 primary election.

Democrats claim they can draw a map that will relegate Republicans to just one seat in the 11-member delegation. Currently, the Virginia congressional districts split 6D-5R. A four-seat swing in this state could tip the balance of power toward the Democrats in their quest for the US House majority.

The Texas Surprises

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025

Texas Elections

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R)

The old saying, “you can’t tell the players without a scorecard,” certainly applies to the 2026 Texas federal office slate. Now that candidate filing is closed, the clouded political situation is becoming a bit clearer.

Texas has a unique filing system that makes following which candidate is running where confusing. Instead of filing with a government agency, the candidates file with their political party. Yet, the process is further complicated.

Candidates filing for offices where the jurisdiction covers more than one county turn their qualifying documents in to their state party office. If a district is fully contained within a single county, the candidates file with their county political party. Once the paperwork is received, the political party entities eventually report the qualified candidates’ names and particulars to the Secretary of State. Therefore, the process takes longer to determine who will be on the ballot than it does in most other states.

In the Senate race, we now have a clear picture for the March 3 partisan primaries. For the Republicans, amidst minor candidates the three major participants, Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), are vying for the party nomination. This race is expected to be close and moving toward a runoff, which is necessary if no candidate receives majority support in the first vote. At this point, it appears that Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton will advance to the secondary election.

For the Democrats, we see a battle between Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin). Five minor candidates have filed, and it is unclear just how many will qualify for the ballot. Irrespective of these latter candidates’ presence, it is likely that we will see either Rep. Crockett or state Rep. Talarico claim the party nomination on March 3.

In the House delegation, 11 seats are open with the addition of TX-30, the seat that Rep. Crockett is leaving to run statewide. It appeared that Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) would move into that district, but he surprisingly chose not to file. Instead, Veasey decided to run for Tarrant County Judge (Executive) where he will face a Republican incumbent and other significant candidates.

The Veasey move allows Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch), who sees her 32nd District transform into a Republican domain and stretch into East Texas, to run in District 33, which is fully contained within Dallas County. Her major obstacle to winning a second term in Congress is former Representative and 2024 US Senate Democratic nominee Colin Allred. Though announcing for the Senate in October, Allred instead changed his mind at the last minute and filed to return to the House, this time in District 33. Also in the race is former state Representative and ex-Dallas City Councilman Domingo Garcia. Therefore, the top two candidates falling into a runoff becomes a possibility. The eventual Democratic nominee will easily win the seat in the general election.

Another new development is the return to the political wars of former Congressman Steve Stockman (R). He has filed in new open District 9. Stockman was twice elected to Congress in non-consecutive elections. He was convicted of violating certain financial laws, but President Trump commuted his 10-year prison sentence. The other major candidate within the crowded field is state Rep. Briscoe Cain (R-Deer Park).

With 11 filed candidates in the CD-9 race, advancing to a runoff election is probable. It remains to be seen how many of the filed candidates qualify for the ballot. Under the new redistricting plan, the 9th District should be one of the seats that Republicans gain.

Another surprising move came in Houston’s 18th District. This seat is currently in special election mode, with Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D) vying to replace the late Congressman Sylvester Turner (D). Immediately after the special election, it was thought the winner would then face Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) in a battle for the new 18th District. The regular primary is scheduled for March 3 after a special election winner is declared on Jan. 31.

Only Menefee, however, filed in new District 18. Therefore, should Edwards win the special election, she will only serve the balance of the current term. Win or lose on Jan. 31, Menefee will advance into the regular Democratic primary against Rep. Green.

The truly surprising facet from the Texas congressional filings is the fact that only two state legislators, Cain and state Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio; open new District 35), entered one of the 11 open-seat congressional campaigns. Therefore, the Texas delegation will feature a large number of incoming freshmen entering the House with no legislative experience.

Texas: Crockett Announces for Senate, Allred Moves Campaign to House

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2025

Senate/House

Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

As expected, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) just as candidate filing was closing in Texas, yesterday entered the US Senate race; unexpectedly, former Congressman Colin Allred, who announced his Senate campaign in October, dropped his statewide bid and filed in the new open 33rd US House District.

Also, as he promised, Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Fort Worth) left his 33rd CD to file in Rep Crockett’s 30th District. The new 33rd is now fully contained in Dallas County, thus robbing Veasey of his Tarrant County base. The new 30th ventures into Tarrant suggesting Rep. Veasey believes his re-election chances are better in CD-30.

Freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) eschews her 32nd District, which is now a Republican seat that stretches from Dallas County well into East Texas, to run in the 33rd. This creates a competitive Democratic primary between her and Allred.

There is some speculation that Rep. Johnson could have switched to the 24th CD in yesterday’s filing to challenge Rep. Beth Van Duyne (R-Irving), thus avoiding a Democratic primary. It remains to be seen where candidates are running until the political party entities release the qualified candidates’ names.

By running for the Senate, Rep. Crockett has certainly upset the Democratic apple cart. The national party leaders had hoped to find Allred facing a field of minor candidates similar to those opposing him in 2024 when he easily won the statewide party nomination. Allred, then risking a safely Democratic 32nd district that Johnson would later win, lost to Sen. Ted Cruz (R) by just over eight percentage points after polling suggested the contest would be much closer.

The Democratic leadership plans were thwarted this year when state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), a media star among Texas political prognosticators and commentators, announced for the Senate and immediately began performing well in research surveys that pitted him opposite Allred.

Once the Senate race pollsters began to include Rep. Crockett, it became clear that it was she, and not Allred as the party leaders had hoped, who was consistently leading the candidate field.

Now, the Democratic primary will feature a competitive battle between Rep. Crockett and state Rep. Talarico. Since the field will likely evolve into a two-way contest, it is probable that a runoff will not be necessary, meaning the Democrats will probably see a nominee emerge in the March 3 party primary.

On the Republican side, Sen. John Cornyn, running for a fifth six-year term, faces Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). Early polling suggests this race will proceed to a May 26 runoff election from the March 3 primary.

At this point, it appears Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton will advance, but Rep. Hunt is hoping to come from the outside as a positive alternative to what promises to be a negative battle between his two principal opponents.

There are 10 open US House districts in the Texas delegation, but the full candidate complement for each of those races won’t be known until later in the week.

Uniquely, Texas candidates file for office with their political party and not a government agency. In a multi-county race, candidates file with their state party. If the office for which a candidate is running is fully contained within a county, the competing individuals file with their local county political party.

In terms of incumbent primary challenges, most US House members have drawn minor primary opposition. The first of three serious March 3 intra-party skirmishes appear in the Houston area’s District 2 where four-term Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble), state Rep. Steve Toth (R-Spring), and several others will compete. The question here is whether Crenshaw can avoid being forced into a runoff.

The second primary incumbent challenge to watch is again TX-23. In 2024, Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) survived a Republican runoff defeat by just 734 votes opposite businessman Brandon Herrera. The 2026 contest will feature a re-match between the two, and another close election is expected.

Additionally, Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) has drawn a significant Democratic challenger in a newly configured District 29. Former state Representative and ex-Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson is challenging Rep. Garcia for the party nomination, and this race has the potential of developing into a serious campaign within a significantly changed Harris County congressional district.

Some of the more interesting general election projected pairings come in South Texas. In District 15, two-term Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen) will likely face regional entertainer Bobby Pulido (D) in a district that changed very little under the new map. Rep. De La Cruz was re-elected in 2024 with 57 percent of the vote.

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), who President Trump just pardoned from a federal indictment, will likely face Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina (R) in a district that is actually 10.7 data points more Democratic, according to the Dave’s Redistricting App organization calculations. The partisan lean numbers best explain why Rep. Cuellar again filed as a Democrat after the Trump pardon.

In new District 34, a coastal seat anchored in Brownsville, we are likely to see Round 3 between Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) and former Rep. Mayra Flores (R). The 34th is now 18.4 data points more Republican, and since the 2024 race recorded a tight 51 to 49 percent finish, Flores’ chances, assuming she wins the party nomination, are therefore significantly enhanced.

Much more to come on the unfolding Texas political situation later in the week when the qualifying candidates for ballot placement are declared official.

Rep. Issa to Remain in California

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 8, 2025

US House

California Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego)

There had been some speculation that veteran Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego) was going to travel to Texas to seek re-election in the new TX-32 district since the California redistricting plan has turned his safely Republican CD into one that is highly competitive.

At the end of last week, Rep. Issa announced that he will seek re-election and will do so in CA-48 despite the district now having a Democratic tilt.

The US Supreme Court approved the new Texas map late last week and declared that the 2025 plan will be in place for the 2026 election. The decision also affects the new California map since the pending lawsuits in both cases involved racial gerrymandering claims, meaning the voter-approved new Golden State map will almost assuredly be in place for the 2026 elections.

The justices timed their ruling to allow candidate filing in Texas to conclude today. Several key political determinations dominoes will fall, the most significant of which revolves around Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s (D-Dallas) decision to file for the Senate or House.

In a related choice, Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth), who sees his 33rd District now located wholly within Dallas County thus eliminating his Tarrant County political base, says he will file in Crockett’s District 30 if she announces for the Senate. If Crockett decides to remain in the House, Veasey will either file for District 33 or enter the race for Tarrant County Judge (labeled County Executive in other places).

Freshman Rep. Julie Johnson’s (D-Farmers Branch) 32nd District is transformed into a Republican seat that stretches into East Texas. Her plan is to reportedly file in District 33.

While California’s candidate filing will remain open until March 6 (March 11 if the incumbent in a particular race does not file), individuals are making decisions about where to seek election; hence, Rep. Issa’s plan to run in new District 48.

Under the 2021 California Citizens Redistricting Commission map that the legislature and voters replaced this year, Rep. Issa’s San Diego County-anchored 48th District held a partisan lean (according to the Dave’s Redistricting App organization) of 58.3R – 39.8D. Under the new plan, that ratio moves to 50.6D – 48.7R, a net swing of 20.5 data points in the Democrats’ favor.

Though this makes re-election much more difficult for Rep. Issa, he still has a fighting chance of defeating a Democrat in the general election. Several California districts with more lopsided Democratic partisan leans have elected Republican Representatives. Therefore, this seat likely moves from a Safe Republican rating to Toss-Up.

In comments posted in an X tweet, Rep. Issa also made some suggestions about other members in his delegation, most specifically the proposed pairing between Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-La Habra). At this point, both have announced for new District 40 (DRA partisan lean: 57.0R – 42.3D), but Rep. Issa was suggesting that Rep. Kim instead run in new District 45 where she would challenge freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange County).

From a Republican Party standpoint, such a move would make sense. Ironically, the state’s two most vulnerable Democratic members, the pair who won the closest US House elections in 2024 — Reps. Adam Gray (D-Merced; winning by 187 votes) and Tran (winning by 653 votes) — actually see their Democratic partisan ratios surprisingly reduced under the new map.

In District 13, Rep. Gray views a partisan swing that moves a net 4.3 data points in the Republicans’ favor, making the partisan lean, according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, of 52.4D – 46.9R. In 2022, Republican John Duarte won the 13th District that featured a partisan lean of 54.0D – 44.2R.

In southern California’s 45th CD, former Rep. Michelle Steel (R), who earlier announced that she will not return to run again in 2026, carried the seat in 2022 with a DRA partisan lean of 52.2D – 45.9R. The new 45th posts a 51.7D – 47.5R partisan lean, again suggesting that a Republican general election finalist will be competitive.

With the Supreme Court making the political situations clearer in at least the two most populous states, final 2026 electoral decisions in California and Texas can now be made with all candidates confident of which map will be in place. We will carry further analysis of the Texas situation after candidate filing closes later today.

More Texas News in the Spotlight:
Latest Senate, Redistricting Updates

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 24, 2025

New polling data was just released in Texas that confirms what many observers have opined about the Lone Star State’s US Senate campaign, and a scathing dissent from one of the three-judge panel members who heard the latest redistricting case could pave the way for a Supreme Court stay.

Senate

Texas state flag

Ragnar Research (Nov. 12-17; 1,000 likely Texas voters; live interview) released a new Texas US Senate poll that supports the common political supposition pertaining to the Lone Star State Senate race. That is, Sen. John Cornyn (R) would lead both 2024 Senate nominee and ex-Congressman Colin Allred (D) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), but Attorney General Ken Paxton would be in danger of losing the general election.

In this poll, Sen. Cornyn leads Allred 47-40 percent and Talarico by a similar 46-40 percent split, both beyond the polling margin of error. As predicted, the two Democrats fare better against Paxton. Allred would lead 44-43 percent, and Rep. Talarico would tie the scandal-tainted AG at 44-44 percent.

The third announced Republican in the race, Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), was not tested, nor was Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) on the Democratic side. Crockett has been leading in other Texas Democratic statewide primary polls but has not yet made a decision about whether to enter the Senate race.

The latest judicial redistricting ruling from the El Paso three-judge panel suggests Rep. Crockett may stay in the House since the 2025 Texas map invalidation restores her 30th Congressional District to its previous boundaries.

According to Ragnar Research partner Chris Perkins, who conducted this poll, wrote “John Cornyn is the strongest candidate for Republicans in a general election, as he has a clear lead. Paxton is statistically tied with either of the Democrat candidates and jeopardizes the ability of Republicans to hold the seat.”

The Texas Senate race is one of the key focal points of the 2026 election cycle. It will be perhaps the only Senate contest that features a contested primary in both parties along with a highly competitive general election.

Redistricting

Fifth District Circuit Judge Jerry E. Smith, a member of the three-judge panel that invalidated the 2025 Texas redistricting map as a racial gerrymander over his objection, published a scathing dissent to the ruling. In his document, Judge Smith referred to lead Judge Jeffrey Brown’s decision as “the most blatant exercise of judicial activism that I have ever witnessed.” Judge Smith stated that he has been a federal judge for 37 years.

The dissent opinion begins by saying that, “the main winners from Judge Brown’s opinion are George Soros and Gavin Newsom. The obvious losers are the People of Texas and the Rule of Law.”

Throughout a 104-page document, Judge Smith details 11 different examples of how ruling that the 2025 Texas map is a racial gerrymander is either “false, misleading, deeply misleading, or deceptive.”

The state of Texas has already appealed, asking that the current ruling be stayed. Appealing a three-judge panel decision goes directly to the US Supreme Court and an official answer must be rendered. The justice assigned to oversee the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, in which Texas resides, is Samuel Alito. The justices have the individual power to issue stays on cases from the circuits in which they oversee.

If Justice Alito were to grant a stay on the Brown panel redistricting ruling, the 2025 map would return as the official Texas map. With candidate filing closing on Dec. 8, a quick ruling on the stay motion is imperative since the two maps are radically different in 11 of Texas’ 38 congressional districts.

How Texas Changes

To see larger image, click on above map. To see interactive maps, go to Dave’s Redistricting App: Texas 2021 Plan | Texas 2025 Plan

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025

Redistricting

The El Paso three-judge panel ruling that invalidates the new Texas map, if allowed to stand, will greatly disrupt the Lone Star State political cycle as candidates currently prepare for an early March 3, 2026, primary election.

In reverting to the 2021 map, 37 of the state’s 38 congressional districts will change, thus altering virtually all the candidates campaign strategies and geographic targets.

Only District 19, now the open seat of retiring Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Lubbock), remained constant between the two maps. A total of 26 districts experience only minor changes, while 11 see major alterations.

Under the 2025 Texas plan, nine seats are open, but returning to the 2021 map will likely mean that number drops to seven. It is also probable that one member who announced his retirement under the 2025 map, Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin), will return to run again if the 2021 map is formally reinstated.

In the invalidated plan, Reps. Doggett and Greg Casar (D-Austin) were paired in a new 37th District, while Rep. Casar’s 35th CD was created as an open seat that stretched into rural counties east of San Antonio. If the 2021 plan is in place for next year’s election, both will have back their previous districts. Doggett said earlier that he would return to seek re-election if the 2025 map was tossed and the previous plan restored.

In the ’25 draw, a new 9th District was created in eastern Harris County. Should the three-judge panel’s ruling be upheld, this district will go away and the candidates seeking this seat will have no place to run.

Should the previous 9th District return, Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) would again seek re-election in this district and would not be paired in a new 18th CD with the winner of the Jan. 31 special runoff election to fill the vacancy created when Rep. Sylvester Turner (D) passed away.

Rep. Michael McCaul’s (R-Austin) 10th District would still be an open seat, and though the territory is different from the invalidated map, the candidate pool would likely remain the same. This is similar to the situation in the 8th and 21st Districts where Rep. Morgan Luttrell (R-Magnolia) is retiring, and four-term incumbent Chip Roy (R-Austin) passed on re-election to run for state Attorney General.

Turning to South Texas, Rep. Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen) will naturally see a return to her original 15th District configuration. The new 15th would have given her more Republican voters. Still, she should again be able to win re-election in the 2021 version.

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) saw some of the territory that gave him the most trouble go away under the new version of District 28. Rep. Cuellar had two close calls in the Democratic primary largely because of the San Antonio region. The 2025 map moved this district further into South Texas. If the previous districts are reinstated, he may again draw a more combative Democratic primary opponent, while still facing a competitive general election.

One of the districts most affected in South Texas was Rep. Vicente Gonzalez’s (D-McAllen) 34th CD anchored in Brownsville. The Congressman would have been in serious trouble under the new plan, but the 2021 version returns his much stronger Democratic base. Still, his victory margin in 2024 was only 51-49 percent over former Congresswoman Mayra Flores (R), and he can expect to face her again. She would have been favored in the new district, but Rep. Gonzalez returns to having the stronger political position under the 2021 map.

The Dallas area was changed greatly under the 2025 plan. The two members most affected were Reps. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) and Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch). Under the new plan, all of Rep. Veasey’s home Tarrant County turf was moved into different districts, leaving his 33rd CD as a self-contained seat within Dallas County.

Under the new plan, Veasey was looking to leave the House to run for Tarrant County Judge (Executive). If the previous map returns, it is possible that he will seek re-election.

Rep. Johnson, who saw her 32nd District moved largely into Republican East Texas, would return to the previous district under the 2021 plan. She was looking to move into Rep. Veasey’s vacated 33rd District if the new map were in place.

Republicans had calculated a gain of five seats under the new map, though some of the predictions might have been overly optimistic, such as, beating Rep. Cuellar in his new 28th CD and securing the open 35th CD.

If the three-judge panel’s decision holds, it is probable that we will see no Republican gain under the 2021 map thus making the chances of retaining their slim majority even more precarious.

Texas Redistricting Map Tossed

(Click on map to see full-size detail.)

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2025

Redistricting

The already complicated 2025 national redistricting scene is now even more complex.

Yesterday, in a 2-1 ruling, a three-judge federal panel in El Paso ruled that the new Texas map is a racial gerrymander and therefore voided. The panel majority ordered the previous 2021 map reinstated.

Critics say the ruling is questionable since no racial data was used in drawing the map and the decision knowingly defines the US Department of Justice officials’ intent. The 160-page ruling document also quotes liberal news sources to provide support for its supposition that Republican legislators en masse were opposed to a redraw until DOJ added a racial component regarding coalition districts, meaning those where a compilation of all minority groups create a non-white majority.

The state of Texas is expected to appeal the ruling. All appeals of three-judge panel decisions go directly to the US Supreme Court, and the justices must respond.
The ruling also creates a further potential conflicting situation when considering that the Justice Department filed a racial gerrymandering complaint against the new California map on Nov. 13. A California three-judge federal panel will be formed to hear that case.

Things will change to an even greater extent if, which is likely, a 9th Circuit three-judge panel rules that the California map is not a racial gerrymander. If so, then expect the Justice Department to appeal such a ruling, meaning the Supreme Court will be dealing with conflicting decisions within a similar issue set.

Because the Texas political calendar features an early March 3 primary, and candidate filing concludes on Dec. 8, a great deal of confusion now reigns for the candidates running in the various 38 districts. Only District 19, now the open seat of retiring Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Lubbock), remained constant in the two maps. Under the 2025 Texas plan, nine seats are open and some of the districts are radically different from the 2021 map.

If the Supreme Court issues the requested stay, possibly because the Texas case arguments could be affected with the high court’s eventual ruling on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case, the 2025 map would likely return for the 2026 election cycle.

Considering the chaos surrounding the Lone Star State case, what the California decision could be, and the subsequent US Supreme Court action on the coming stay motion, along with the ultimate Louisiana ruling, it is possible that Texas could postpone the state primary.

There has been precedent for postponing a primary for a set of affected political contests, in this case the congressional campaigns because of redistricting. Doing so would give the high court more time to render a final decision that hopefully would be definitive as it relates to racial gerrymandering.

Louisiana, awaiting their SCOTUS redistricting decision after going through a second round of oral arguments, has already postponed their primary one month — from April 18 to May 16.

To further complicate matters, Gov. Greg Abbott has now ordered the special runoff election to fill Houston’s 18th District congressional vacancy to be held on Jan. 31, 2026.

The runoff features a contest between Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D), both of whom qualified for the secondary election in the Nov. 4 initial vote.

Immediately upon winning the special election, the victor will face Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) in the regular 2026 primary election on March 3. Now with the confusion about where the candidates must file, the District 18 special election could be one more reason the Texas regular primary might be postponed. TX-18 is vacant because incumbent Rep. Sylvester Turner (D) passed away earlier in the year.

With such a short time frame affecting so many Texas congressional candidates and electorates, firm decisions must soon be made.