Tag Archives: Rep. Elise Stefanik

NY Poll: Hochul and Stefanik in
Dead Heat in Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Governor

NY Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) struggling in polls.

A political survey that the New York Post recently covered found Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) drawing into a virtual general election tie with New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) according to the study’s ballot test result.

No major Republican or Democratic candidate with the exception of the incumbent has yet announced for Governor. Yet, the data consistently shows that Rep. Stefanik, who was nominated as US Ambassador to the United Nations but withdrawn when it became evident that taking her from the House could have potentially cost the Republicans effective control of the legislative chamber, fares the best of any potential GOP contender against the politically vulnerable Governor.

Gov. Hochul also could face a contested Democratic primary. Both Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado and Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) have indicated they are considering launching a primary challenge to the Governor.

The co/efficient survey research firm conducted their New York poll in early May (May 1-2; 1,163 likely New York voters; live interview & text) and the results showed Gov. Hochul holding only a 43-42 percent lead over Rep. Stefanik, meaning a virtual dead heat. In a hypothetical Republican primary, co/efficient sees Stefanik leading Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R), 56-9-8 percent. The Hochul job approval number stood at 44:46 percent favorable to unfavorable.

Siena College also released a poll conducted about two weeks later than the co/efficient study (May 12-15; 805 registered New York voters; live interview & text). The Hochul job approval score was in the same realm as co/efficient found, though slightly more positive. The Siena job approval index found the Governor in positive territory at 50:46 percent, though her personal approval is wholly consistent with the co/efficient job approval score of 44:46 percent positive to negative.

Though Siena did not test general election pairings, the pollsters did ask whether the respondent believes Gov. Hochul should be replaced. A total of 82 percent of Republicans and 64 percent of Independents said they prefer “someone else” to be the state’s next Governor. Even among Democrats, her standing is tepid. Only a bare majority of 51 percent said they are “prepared to re-elect her.”

Siena asked primary ballot test questions for both parties. While co/efficient found Rep. Stefanik holding a large lead in the GOP field, as referenced above, Siena sees a more competitive contest. According to this poll, Stefanik’s lead over Rep. Lawler and County Executive Blakeman was 35-22-11 percent, respectively.

On the Democratic side, Gov. Hochul maintains a substantial lead, but she remains below 50 percent even on the primary ballot test. Siena’s latest results project her holding a 46-12-10 percent advantage over Delgado and Torres.

While this margin is wide, it does suggest that her facing only one opponent could lead to an aggressive primary challenge. If both enter, Hochul would very likely win because the anti-incumbent vote would be split. Since New York recognizes plurality elections – New York City is using the Ranked Choice Voting system, but the state has not adopted the procedure – Hochul would prevail as the first-place finisher.

At this point, it appears likely that Rep. Stefanik will enter the Governor’s race since the early signs surrounding her proposed candidacy are relatively positive. Such is not the case for Rep. Lawler. He, therefore, will likely remain in the House race and enter what promises to be a hotly contested national congressional re-election campaign.

Without Lawler in the Governor’s race, it is possible that Blakeman would run and attempt to upset Stefanik in a one-on-one campaign, even though the early indicators heavily favor the Congresswoman for the party nomination.

On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Delgado and Rep. Torres would likely need to form an alliance, with only one challenging Gov. Hochul, for either to have a chance. If both enter the race, the prognostication would greatly favor a Hochul renomination. If one of the two challenges Gov. Hochul, such would yield a competitive Democratic primary campaign to be decided in late June of 2026.

Regardless of the nomination outcomes for both parties, it is probable that we will see a major general election New York gubernatorial campaign develop. While the state’s voting history clearly points to another Democratic victory in November of 2026, this race is likely to become much more interesting than would a typical New York statewide campaign.

Stefanik Eyes Run for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 18, 2025

Governor

New York US Rep. Elise Stefanik /
Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

The Politico publication ran a story Wednesday reporting that New York US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) is being courted to run for Governor, and she’s apparently considering the move.

Rep. Stefanik, originally appointed as US Ambassador to the United Nations but then pulled back when it appeared Republicans could lose her Upstate New York House seat in a special election, was subsequently appointed as Chair of the House Republican Leadership. In this position, she coordinates between the elected leadership and the Conference members. It was created for her as a consolation, if you will, for having her UN nomination pulled back, especially when Senate confirmation was virtually assured.

Now, discussion of her running for Governor comes into focus from what is her decidedly blue home state. The last time a Republican won the New York Governorship occurred when then-Gov. George Pataki clinched a third term in 2006. Prior to Pataki’s tenure, one must return to 1970 to see a Republican, Nelson Rockefeller for the fourth time, elected as New York’s Governor.

It is clear that Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is vulnerable, but could Stefanik, or any Republican, beat her? In 2022, then-US Representative and now EPA Administrator in the Trump Administration Lee Zeldin performed well, especially on his native Long Island, but lost statewide 53-47 percent. Still, this was the best Republican gubernatorial performance since then-Gov. Pataki’s final victory in 2006.

On the negative side, the Governor’s favorability numbers have been upside-down for at least part of her tenure. Gov. Hochul assumed office in August 2021 from her Lieutenant Governor’s position after then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) was forced to resign because of a personal scandal. Hochul was then elected in her own right in 2022, defeating Zeldin as mentioned above.

The latest published Hochul favorability rating comes from Siena College, in an early March poll conducted through live interviews over the month’s 2nd through 6th period from a sampling universe of 806 registered New York voters. According to this survey, the Governor’s personal favorability index was 40:50 percent positive to negative. Among the 395 tested Democrats, her ratio is 59:34 percent, which is low for an incumbent within his or her own party.

In addition to facing what should be a competitive general election, Gov. Hochul will apparently be forced to fight for renomination. It is possible that both Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado and US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) could launch primary challenges against the Governor.

The Siena College poll tested a potential Democratic primary and found the Governor leading both Delgado and Torres, 46-11-10 percent. This result is similar to a Data for Progress survey conducted later in the month (March 26-31; 767 likely New York Democratic primary voters; online) that saw a 51-11-11 percent ballot test response, again in Gov. Hochul’s favor.

Still, these numbers are not particularly impressive for a sitting Governor in her own party primary. Her best case scenario would be if both men entered the race. That way, the anti-Hochul vote would be split between two candidates, which would allow the Governor to win renomination with a lower percentage.

Of her two potential Democratic opponents, Delgado appears the more likely to run. Even though Hochul chose him as her running mate for the 2022 election, Delgado says he will not appear with her in the coming election.

On the Republican side, in addition to Rep. Stefanik apparently being interested, US Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) had long been touted as a possible gubernatorial candidate. Assuming that Stefanik enters the Governor’s race and obtains a Trump endorsement, which is likely, Rep. Lawler would be a clear underdog for the party nomination. Under this scenario, his best option would likely be to seek re-election in his 17th Congressional District.

Though Gov. Hochul appears to currently be in a weakened political position, it is probable that she will ultimately be favored to win the Democratic nomination and, in the end, the succeeding general election.

Republicans may be showing more competitive signs in New York — in November, President Donald Trump improved his 2020 performance by more than 11 percentage points, the highest increase of any state — but the party is still a long way from knocking on the door of an Empire State major victory.

Redistricting Boom Hits

New York 2022 redistricting map. (Click on map to go to FiveThirtyEight.com’s interactive map to see breakdown of each Congressional district.)

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 2, 2022 — The redistricting boom that political observers were awaiting has hit. The New York legislature unveiled their new congressional map, and akin to what the Democratic leadership passed in Illinois, the Empire State plan decimates the Republicans just as expected.

As we will remember, New York lost one congressional seat in national reapportionment (by just 89 people statewide) thereby reducing the delegation size to 26 seats. The current 27-district map yields 19 Democrats and 8 Republicans. The new map is projected to reduce the GOP contingent to just four seats.

Starting on Long Island and knowing that Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) is leaving his 1st District to run for governor and understanding that the four districts covering the island are a cumulative 148,780 people short of the per congressional district quota of 776,971 residents, means major differences for these seats.

The map drawers brought the 1st District further west, the only thing they could do to capture the number of needed new people, and as a result were able to turn this R+10 district according to the FiveThirtyEight statistical site into a Biden +10.8 percent seat according to an analysis in the Washington Post.

Note that because the New York presidential election was so lopsided, largely because the Trump campaign never tried to become competitive, using just the 2020 presidential numbers to project voter history is likely slanted even more distinctly toward the Democrats. Once more analyses come into the public domain, we will be better able to pinpoint the partisan trend in each new district.

The 1st District draw makes Rep. Andrew Garbarino’s (R-Sayville) 2nd much redder. His CD, designed to now follow the open 1st District’s borderline to the south, would register as a Trump +14.3 percent district as compared to the previous R+8 calculation from FiveThirtyEight.

The plan would then improve both Rep. Tom Suozzi’s (D-Glen Cove) open 3rd District (Biden +14.2 percent) as it moves further into Queens, and Rep. Kathleen Rice’s (D-Garden City) 4th CD. The latter district would record a 12.1 percent Biden performance, up from the 538 total of D+9.

All of the New York City Democrats would again retain safe seats. The big change would come in the Staten Island-Brooklyn district of freshman Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-Staten Island). Her current 11th CD voted for Trump in 2020 by a 10.5 percent margin (538: R+13). Under this plan, the Washington Post rates the newly configured 11th for Biden with a +9.9 percentage point spread. Former Rep. Max Rose (D), who Malliotakis unseated in 2020, is back for a re-match. If this map becomes law, as expected, the 11th District playing field will be greatly altered.

The upstate region also significantly changes. Freshman Rep. Mondaire Jones’ (D-Westchester County) district becomes slightly more competitive, from a D+17 to a Biden +13.3 percent. Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-Cold Spring) would go from representing a district that 538 rated as even between the two parties to a Biden +8.3 percent edge. Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-Rhinebeck) would see his 19th CD strengthen from R+4 to Biden +10.0 percent.

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New GOP House Data

Sept. 24, 2015 — The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) commissioned Harper Polling (HP) to conduct surveys in presumed vulnerable incumbent districts for next year. In five of the situations where the Democrats have already recruited credible candidates, the preliminary data is favorable for the party office holders. Still, an eventual shift in the political tide could easily make these campaigns highly competitive for 2016.

The quintet of released polls feature representatives Martha McSally (R-AZ-2), Mike Bost (R-IL-12), Tim Walberg (R-MI-7), Elise Stefanik (R-NY-21), and John Katko (R-NY-24).

Rep. McSally won the closest of all 2014 elections, a 167-vote victory over then-Tucson Democratic incumbent Ron Barber. Though the Harper data projects McSally with a discernible lead, there is little question that the succeeding 2016 contest will again be close.

All four of these polls were conducted during the Sept. 12-16 period. In Arizona’s 2nd District, 484 likely general election voters were sampled. The sample’s partisan division was a reflective 39 percent Democratic, 36 percent Republican, 25 percent Independent, which is an accurate depiction of the district as a whole. Today, HP finds Rep. McSally holding almost identical leads over her two Democratic opponents, both of whom have state legislative experience.

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