Tag Archives: Pennsylvania

Rep. Gerlach (R-PA-6) to Retire

Six-term Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA-6), who took five election campaigns to even break 52 percent of the vote, announced today that he will not seek a seventh term from his Philadelphia suburban congressional district.

Aside from spending what will be 12 years in the US House at the end of the current Congress, Gerlach also served a dozen years in the Pennsylvania legislature. He is tenth in Republican seniority on the Ways & Means Committee, serving on the Health and Select Revenue Measures subcommittees.

As Gerlach’s 53 percent career average win Continue reading >

Early Gaining and Losing

Though reapportionment only happens once every decade anchored to the new census, the gaining or losing of congressional districts for individual states clearly affects delegation politics almost unceasingly.*

The Census Bureau just recently released new population growth figures, based upon July 1, 2013 data, that gives us a very early look into which states may be headed for reapportionment changes in 2020. The projection process occurs throughout the 10-year period and very often the early numbers do not correctly reflect end-of-the-decade trends, so predicting now with any certainty how the population formula will unfold in late 2020 is highly speculative.

That being the case, the new growth numbers suggest that Texas will again gain multiple seats – at this point two – and Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Virginia appear headed for one-seat additions. Offsetting these increases are again New York, Pennsylvania, Continue reading >

A Trio of Incumbents in Jeopardy

Happy Thanksgiving from all of us at the PRIsm Information Network. Our Updates will resume on Monday morning, Dec. 2.

Developments occurring this week continue to suggest that three office holders are in serious trouble as they look toward re-election next year – two governors and a congressman:

Pennsylvania

Probably the most vulnerable governor in the country is Pennsylvania’s Tom Corbett (R). Public Policy Polling just released a new survey of the Keystone State electorate (Nov. 22-25; 693 registered Pennsylvania voters; 436 Democratic Pennsylvania primary voters) and finds the governor with a terrible 24:65 percent favorable to unfavorable job approval rating. By contrast, President Obama’s approval index is also upside down but only to a 43:53% extent. The PPP job approval scores always Continue reading >

Three Key Governor’s Races Narrowing

Now that the 2013 election is complete, the pollsters are back surveying races in states other than New Jersey and Virginia. Today, we cover some interesting numbers being returned in three competitive governors’ races.

Ohio

After seeing strong numbers come from Quinnipiac University in June (June 18-23; 941 registered Ohio voters) for Gov. John Kasich (R), the new Public Policy Polling data brings the race back to earth. Four and one-half months ago, the Q-Poll posted Gov. Kasich to a 47-33 percent lead over Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald (D). The latest PPP survey (Nov. 5-6; 595 registered Ohio voters) paints a different picture. According to this poll, Kasich and FitzGerald are tied at 41 percent apiece.

The latter data, which is much closer to normal Ohio voting patterns than the earlier Q-Poll, may suggest the pro-Kasich data is an anomaly or simply that the climate has changed during the lagging interval. Most probably, the time scenario is the more accurate.
Continue reading >

Three States, Three Different Approaches

Pennsylvania

A major political decision announced just yesterday will help a Pennsylvania freshman Republican congressman. In November, businessman Keith Rothfus (R) unseated incumbent Rep. Mark Critz (D) in the newly drawn 12th Congressional District.

Critz was originally paired with then-Rep. Jason Altmire (D) in the one district after PA lost a seat in reapportionment. The sophomore congressman prevailed over Altmire in a close, hard-fought contest, but then Critz went on to lose the general election to Rothfus 48-52 percent, despite President Obama again carrying Pennsylvania.

Since the election, it was assumed that Critz would seek a re-match with congressman Rothfus in an attempt to regain his lost position. Critz, however, has decided on a different political direction. Instead of again running for Congress, the ex-member will now run for lieutenant governor. With the Democrats appearing well positioned to unseat Gov. Tom Corbett (R), riding on a ticket with the Democratic gubernatorial nominee could allow Critz to sail back into office.

In Pennsylvania, candidates for lieutenant governor run independently in the primary but, once nominated, are paired with the gubernatorial nominee on a general election ticket. The leading Democratic gubernatorial contender is Critz’s former congressional colleague, Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D-PA-13). As a political team, the two would strike a balance between the dominant liberal wing of the Democratic Party and its more moderate faction.

Maine

With the polls showing that Rep. Mike Michaud (D-ME-2) would defeat Gov. Paul LePage (R) even in a three-way match with Independent attorney Eliot Cutler, the congressman will officially announce his gubernatorial campaign later today. Earlier, Michaud had formed a gubernatorial exploratory committee.

While Michaud’s prospects appear strong in the governor’s contest, the battle for his open House seat could reflect a different complexion. Though the Democrats will be viewed as likely winners early in the race, a strong Republican candidate could become highly competitive in an inland western Continue reading >

A Trio of Political Icons Pass

It’s said that famous people die in threes, and that certainly happened again this week in the world of politics. Rather extraordinarily, the youngest of the trio was 96 years of age.

Former Virginia Sen. Harry F. Byrd Jr. (I), who served from 1965 to 1983) passed away on Tuesday at the age of 98.

Ex-Rep. Lindy Boggs (D-LA-2), who succeeded her late husband in Congress back in 1973 and served nine terms, passed away from natural causes at the beginning of the week. She was 97.

And William Scranton, the former Pennsylvania Republican governor and congressman who served as the US Ambassador to the United Nations, also died this week in California at the age of 96.

Sen. Byrd was appointed to his seat, succeeding his father, who was forced to resign in 1965 due to health issues. He then died in 1966 of brain cancer. The younger Sen. Byrd went into the Senate as a Democrat, but his conservative philosophy on fiscal issues led him to leave the party in 1970 to become an Independent. Until his death this week, Byrd was the oldest living former senator.

Boggs succeeded her husband, Hale Boggs, who was the House Majority Leader. He died in a plane crash over a remote area of Alaska, flying with his Democratic colleague Rep. Nick Begich. The late Begich was the father of current US Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK). After retiring from the House, President Clinton appointed the former congresswoman as the US Ambassador to the Holy See, a position she would hold from 1997-2001.

Like the other two luminaries who passed, Scranton was from a political family. His grandfather, Joe Scranton, served five non-consecutive terms in Congress. Scranton’s son, William W. Scranton III, later became Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor.

Governorships in the Balance

Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R)

In the current 2013-14 election cycle, 38 of the 50 gubernatorial campaigns will occur. Though the Republican Party did poorly in the 2012 national election, they still claim their largest stable of governors in modern political history. Today, the Republicans control 30 state houses as compared to 19 for the Democrats. One state, Rhode Island, features an Independent governor. Lincoln Chafee was originally elected to the Senate as a Republican but, after his defeat from federal office, he chose to run for governor in 2010 as an Independent. Earlier in the year speculation grew that Chafee might seek re-election as a Democrat, bringing him full circle through the political party process if he follows through.

One state, Virginia, is among five states that elect chief executives in odd-numbered years. The Commonwealth also invokes a one-term limit, meaning an open race for the position every four years. Two states, Vermont and New Hampshire, maintain two-year terms for their respective governors. The other 48 states award four-year terms.

In looking at the 38 races, Republicans must defend 24 of the gubernatorial seats to the Democrats 13, in addition to the one Independent. Only six of the seats are open, five due to term limits. Massachusetts Gov. Continue reading >